Discworld Mafia is go!

[Strago]

Fingers crossed.

HAMMER.

[Sierra]

Day six final votecount:

Excal (4): Strago, Hunter Sopko, Taishyr, Kilgamayan
Hunter Sopko (0): Taishyr
Kilgamayan (1): Carthrat
Strago (0): Kilgamayan

On the sixth day, suspicion turned to one of the more unfortunate members of the city (unfortunate even before the crowd lynched him, that is!) A beggar, known only as The Duck Man. Though he worked with the strangest band of paupers in the city (in a city as thoroughly regulated by guilds as Ankh-Morpork, even begging is an occupation!), he always came across as reasonable and lucid. Except for the duck that sat on his head at all times, to which he always exhibited total obliviousness, but we can't all be perfect, can we? Nevertheless, there was something just a bit off about his behavior that had left some ill at ease in his presence throughout the past week of unrest. And so, on the sixth evening, and against the word of all their investigators who declared him to be a normal and trustworthy individual, the people put The Duck Man to the ultimate test. He reacted calmly at first (surely this must all be some misunderstanding, we can talk things over still?) It was when they brought him to the gallows that the beleaguered beggar finally broke, squirming in the grasp of his captors, shivering and muttering profanities.

"The infidels shall suffer. You will all be devoured by his slavering beak come the day of judgement! GLORY TO AIRYDUCKAAARRRGGHHH!!!"

He died fighting against his fate, but failed to transform at the moment of death. Were the citizens wrong once again? Had they killed another innocent? It was in this moment of uncertainty that his feathered companion attacked! Sprouting a whiplike tail and dozens of whirring, clawlike appendages, it launched itself at its oppressors.

So, it was the duck all along! The foul creature was smashed into the pavement by a single blow from The Librarian before any more townfolk could be harmed by its devious appetites. Being a 300-pound ape, it seemed, held several advantages over being an aquatic avian. Even a demonic one.

Excal, aka The Duck Man, Beggar (SCUM, Godfather) was lynched!

Night actions go.

[Sierra]

The citizens congratulated themselves as they went to bed on the sixth night. The whole ordeal had been a grueling affair, but at last they'd managed to sniff out the monsters' leader! Surely their long nightmare must be over now?

But on the seventh morning their hopes were dashed. Hex, Unseen University's great computer, was found smashed to pieces in the laboratory that housed it. Shards of glass tubing, honeycombed bits of beehive and, curiously, a dead mouse were all that remained of the machine. Though there had been some that doubted how far this so-called "computer" could be trusted, some of its calculations had turned out to be correct after all. They took it at its word too late, and now the only guidance it could offer were its last printed words:

+++OUT OF CHEESE ERROR, REDO FROM START+++

Hunter Sopko, aka Hex, Ant Farm Computer (Town-aligned, Slow Cop/Miller) was destroyed overnight!

It is now day seven. With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

There are 48 hours until the deadline.

[Kilgamayan]

And once again, my ineptitude rears its ugly head, as I'm pretty sure I claimed Excal to be town on Day 2 or 3. >_>

Oh well, at least we got one.

Now to check Tai's list...

[Kilgamayan]

So!

Excal -> VSM
Taishyr -> Excal
Excal -> Taishyr
Excal -> Kilgamayan
Excal -> VSM
Excal -> VSM
**Excal -> Fnorder
**Shale -> Excal

Excal: VSM, Taishyr, Kilgamayan, Fnorder, Shale

From Tai's post a ways back.

Of the people still alive, we have VSM, Tai and myself. This leaves Rat and Strago (and it would've left Sopko if he wasn't killed, whose death is strange but I'm not going to complain).

How much weight are we willing to put on this?

[Strago]

YES. SWEET. I am pumped. We can do this.

If we're still not in LYLO, VSM is town. Which is a good thing.

The small possibility that Kilga is scum still remains, but I still doubt it. Not only because of his role, but because I think scum really could've let that day ride out with few consequences.

So it seems to be between Carth and Taishyr, at the moment. And Carth looks significantly worse. Instead of responding to my post explaining why lynching Kilga didn't look like the best idea, he just voted Kil and then said he'd post more before deadline, which he conspicuously did not do. Tai voted Excal when, as with Kilga, scum seemingly could have easily pressed the issue on Soppy and brought us to deadline and No Lynch. Thoughts?

[Strago]

And Kilga's ninja post brings up another reason that Carth looks bad. Yeah, I'm feeling pretty solid on this one right now.

[Strago]

Huh. Remember back around the end of Day 2, when hardly anyone had voted and we were pretty much in a dead heat deciding who to lynch between VSM and Nitori? Well, Tai voted for Nitori... and just after that, Carthrat voted for VSM, tying things back up again. Were Taishyr scum, I see very, very little reason for him to have gone out on a limb to do that to Nitori at that point. If Carth is scum, though, that response makes a good deal of sense. And this is all way back in the day, when even careful scum don't know what sort of thing is going to get hunted up by endgame.

[Veryslightlymad]

ARGH. Once again I almost screw up the entire game, but my very presence, awesome as it is, saves the day. O_o

I'm gonna dig up Sopko's list of investigatees, to see if there was anyone who might have a liiiiittle bit to fear.

[Strago]

Apart from Tai, they were all dead before Soppy was NK'd.

[Carthrat]

The reason I didn't post was due to various lame RL things which don't warrant going into here. Suffice to say that it was a bad move on my part, regardless of teh team I'm on. That Excal is scum makes Kilga seem pretty good in my eyes at present, and given that according to my own logic, if Kilga was townie and you were scum, you'd have to be godfather... things look pretty good for you as well. Apologies for not responding to your reasoning on why lynching Kilga was a bad idea. At the time I was kind of hurried and wanted to get a vote out.

<->

So basically, at this point, I can think of two real outcomes.

1) Kilga is a scum roleblocker. (Unlikely, 'cos nobody but Strago has been roleblocked and that's such a crazy line of logic.)
2) Tai is a scum docbuster. (Somewhat more likely, because he's the only other person who I don't have some reason to clear!)

If Tai is scum, then he'd be dead if Sopko was alive to finish his investigation; worst case, we'd lynch Soppy, and then him when Soppy flips town. Yes, Tai voted for Excal. And yes, scum can still bus at lategame (and it can be more effective to do so at times!)

Furthermore, if other people could see the case against Nitori at that time, so can scum; an early bus tends to garner a great deal more credibility than a late one. The reasons I voted for VSM felt sound at the time, as I'd like you to keep in mind that he hadn't voted at all and was playing what seemed to me like a very shaky, passive game; he stuck out for that, and thus my attention was drawn.


With regards to Tai's list, I'd like to point something else out, too.

Taishyr: Excal, Kilgamayan, Strago, Fnorder*, Carthrat, Shale*

At this point of the game, who was alive? Tai and Excal. This post is, frankly, rather confusing and not too much help by itself, but in theory, arguments from it could be used to tip the scales away from anything linking those two as scum (i.e. here) and towards another. Yeah, I know I'm using a kinda of logical reversal, but it's very clear to *me* right now.

<->

I went over my previous large post on Tai...

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2906#msg2906

and noted that I'd identified a few similarities in their play at this time; aditionally, Tai has been somewhat sympathetic to Excal in the past. His main reason for voting Excal yesterday, as well, was out of a desire to get a lynch instead of because he felt Excal was a suspect, I believe. I know it's bad to reference myself, but he has generally taken a laid-back style for days 1-2, on day 3 he seemed to want to attack Cranbud but was hanging back somewhat. I'd already commented in this post on the way he was hanging back and riffing off other cases rather than building his own. Kind of continues on day 4 with a single null read on Strago.

Yeah, some of this is reiteration. Post #1 mostly complete, post #2 will look at what he's done since this one. Read it again; I've put it in a somewhat different light now, but, well, I have no choice, here.

<->

##Vote: Taishyr Basically I'm going to spend my whole time today attacking Tai. My only other potential suspect is Kilga, which requires some kind of epic xanatos gambit out of him; a bloody risky move to make.

[Carthrat]

I am addressing mainly Strago in the first paragraph, if it's not clear.

[Veryslightlymad]

Apart from Tai, they were all dead before Soppy was NK'd.

Thought I'd double-check anyhow. Give me something less heady to do during dinner.

[Sierra]

Update!

Taishyr (1): Carthrat

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

There are 41 hours until the deadline.

Note: Flavor text added into the previous page's updates. Do go read it.

[Strago]

If Tai is scum, then he'd be dead if Sopko was alive to finish his investigation; worst case, we'd lynch Soppy, and then him when Soppy flips town. Yes, Tai voted for Excal. And yes, scum can still bus at lategame (and it can be more effective to do so at times!)

WIFOM. Any non-Soppy scum kills Hex, and then goes "obviously Tai wouldn't want Soppy to reveal his investigation!" This is circular and leads nowhere.

Furthermore, if other people could see the case against Nitori at that time, so can scum; an early bus tends to garner a great deal more credibility than a late one. The reasons I voted for VSM felt sound at the time, as I'd like you to keep in mind that he hadn't voted at all and was playing what seemed to me like a very shaky, passive game; he stuck out for that, and thus my attention was drawn.

There was very little case against Nitori, at that point. Hell, there was never a profoundly compelling case against Nitori, and at the point where Tai put him in the lead he could have just as easily placed a vote somewhere else and made it a three-man race or put VSM way in the lead, as VSM was looking plenty scummy early on. Granted, Nitori was a Framer, Smodge was dead, and you guys didn't necessarily have any reason to suspect there was a second Cop so early on... but it just seems so out of the blue to bus him back then.

In my - admittedly somewhat cursory - reread of the topic today, Carth, I saw a pretty early vote from you against Excal, and then a lack of any suspicion of him for days afterward. You and Tai seem roughly equal on that count. Hell, I thought Excal was relatively clean, earlier on. He played well. This area seems pretty much null to me.

Tai, VSM, Kilga? More thoughts?

[Veryslightlymad]

My thoughts as of now are............

..........I need to take a slow, painful re-read of the topic. We've got the full 48 ahead of us, right?

[Strago]

About 40, now, but yeah.

[Carthrat]

So... if there was never a compelling case against Nitori, why would Tai vote for him originally? A mistake? A passing shot at an early bus? I've done this myself as scum. I'll grant that the case on Soppy is a WIFOM, 'cos in thinking about it, he was really the only target for *any* scum to NK if they want to maximize their chances of victory.

You're kinda accusing me of being a hypocrite, in that I'm taking a shot at Tai for stuff I'm guilty of. Go ahead, I don't care; if you could lynch both of us today I'd dare you too. I would obviously *prefer* you lynched Tai today, so that in the event that I'm wrong, I can at least try to not get lynched myself. But if I hypothetically had input after I die, I'd still be going after Tai. Remember that if I'm gone!

<->

This is a pretty big thing I've written up vis a vis Tai. It's.. got a pretty strong slant against him, but I've provided links to all his major posts. I will admit right now that I'm going after him because I think Kilga and Strago are *not* scum and Tai *is*, which has made me actively search for things that might be scumtells.

Ok, picking up from after my first analysis of Tai..

Day 4 Cont'd


http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg2910#msg2910 Tai's first response.


At the time, I honestly didn't think much of Tai's similarity to Excal, but it was there and had to be pointed out. Now I believe they've been acidentally matching each other due to having a single scummy mind, as it were. They probably didn't realise, as he admits to not noticing it in his response to me. I dunno, when I reread his post here, where he claims to feel like 'an outsider looking in' and that he's going to have to change his style, it just feels really wrong to me.

He may have admitted to what I see as distancing himself because he couldn't really respond in another way, perhaps? (Excal doesn't adddress the similarity at all; in retrospect it may have been worth poking both of them over this.)


[urlhttp://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3037#msg3037[/url]
He comes out with a vote for Otter, which was the cool thing to do at the time, and pretty early by the looks of it. He also defends Excal a bit more in this post as well.

He pokes for opinions on me, on whom he has a neutral read. It felt like, by the by, that me and Tai were thought of as slipping under the radar quite frequently. I think Tai's done this more than me, but Strago seemed to share the neutral impression, with vauge tendancies towards towniness and such.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3094#msg3094 This is a post from Excal, wherein he says that Tai may have jumped in early on Nitori to start a bus.

I believe this was done under the assumption that *Tai* would later get lynched. This way, if Excal was suspected, he could come back here- with a statement that seems dangerous for scum to lay down if they're trying to keep the pressure off each other- and point out that he was drawing attention to Tai way back here. Ok, this is a longshot, but it's here.


http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3104#msg3104

In this post, Tai interacts with Excal; justifying his vote for Nitori and correcting a minor mistake. Nothing much of interest here.

Conclusions of Day 4: It.. really isn't that much. Taishyr can be seen to be acting a little strangely with his larger posts, and his other posts are generally quite small, making short statements to justify his own votes and not going into so much detail. Eh, I can't say much bad about him here.


Day 5

[urlhttp://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3209#msg3209[/url]

His first post of the day. I think it's worth quoting.

First, mang, am I that non-present, Mad Fnorder? Shiii.

Secondly, aigh, Otter -was- town? Shit. If it weren't for the cop, I'd be glaring at Excal heavily at this point (and Corwin, if he weren't dead); even now, that pretty much removed my trust toward him. Though it's not as if I don't have egg on my face... cha. I went with reason and reason lost.

On the other hand, we have Shale, with... the investigation on Fnorder revealing a ghost? Mmm. While I can understand the votes... ...mrrr, I'm actually gutpulling away from Fnorder being scum. I can't explain it, but... (SK + Two Town) just feels... far more likely to me than (SK + Scum + Town). While Fnorder may be something else, I... aiya. Give me time to look this over and finish a current analysis, this situation... just feels off. Nitori got eliminated with no help from BC, and then BC fell... why do I have the feeling this is all a sacrifice game?

He would be glaring at Excal except for the cop (more clear-ness towards Excal...), has a gut feeling against voting for Fnorder (gut feelings are generally unjustified; he's pulling the correct metagame analysis and there isn't much way he'd be able to say that with certainty unless he knew scum roles), and he thinks it's a sacrifice game (because it was, and he sacrificed Nitori early!)

After this pokes he makes a number of very small, one-liner posts that don't say much. Wows over the number of cops, continues with his gut feelings on FNorder, throws out some stuff about why breadcrumbs don't mean anything, and... aha.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3346#msg3346

The almight 'who talked to whom' post, great collateral, excellent stuff, totally useless.

Yeah, I'm calling it useless. I was concerned about this beforehand. The post makes an excellent screen if Tai is scum, given that he's set up an interaction with himself and Excal already. He's not interacted with *other* scum according to this list, I guess, but... honestly, this list reads more and more to me like some great smokescreen rather than anything helpful; it can get discussion moving in a lot of places, and most of them are *away* from Tai and Excal.


http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3354#msg3354

In this post, he's concerned mainly about what is learned if we lynch Excal. Ok, sure, if he's town we may not have learned much at the time (I honestly don't remember). If he's scum.. we learn that he's scum for sure, man. Again, this is a longshot, but what of 'thou shalt not suffer scum to live'?

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3359#msg3359

Despite thinking Fnorder is going to show up scum, he would advocate lynching him over Shale at the moment. Reasonable, given Shale is the cop. I can't make so much of this post... it's kind of just 'there' for me. Anyone else want to take a crack at analysis?

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3437#msg3437

He comes out to hit Soppy, here. Honestly I can't fault him much given the oddness of Tai's claim. I will admit if Soppy was going to claim, he should claim all his role (including the miller part), but I would have preferred Soppy to not claim at this point.

Day 5 conclusions: The really big post Tai threw up doesn't really seem terribly helpful; ideally, scum try to play by emulating townies, which does mean calling each other out on mistakes and such. It could be seen as a towntell due to the amount of work he seemed to put into it (except it's really just rereading the thread checking things.) Apart from this... blah. He made a series of moves that seem decent enough, but I can see why people would think he's staying in the background, you know? They don't stand out from crowd; I only really notice them because I'm looking for them.


Day 6

Tai really does three things today.

1) He confirms his nameclaim and jabs VSM for having suspicions that seem based on flavour text. I don't think this was justified of VSM.

2) He makes a big post here. http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=268.msg3746#msg3746

Thinks I'm a townie. Why, thank you. Actually this is something of a towntell for him (given the fast approaching endgame, wouldn't it be better to throw suspicion at me if he's scum, given who is likely to still be alive by the end? Or is he trying to secure my support? Or is he a townie and I'm totally wrong? I doubt this.)

He votes pretty reluctantly on Soppy, eventually, which also seems a bit odd (if he's scum, he can just NK Soppy, can't he?)

3) He switches his vote to Excal on the basis of needing to lynch *somebody*. He really could've kept his vote off here, but then he'd look a bit worse when the day finally ended (especially if hammer came on Excal from another source, like VSM.)

So... again, to me, Tai isn't making many tells either way. At the time, I guess I thought he was more town than scum.

Ultimate Conclusions:  I'm trying to think of moments when he's been exceptionally *helpful* to town, and I don't know what he's done that's helped me, personally, through my thinking. He's been participating, but it always feels in something of a muted sense. Until today, I likely would have defended him and avoided voting for him. It's going to take a very strong case against Kilga or Strago to convince me to change my vote at this stage.

I invite someone to make a case *for* Tai As Town.

[Strago]

... hmm. Frankly, I'd like to see Tai defend himself, at this point. That's a fairly strong offensive from Rat, all things considered, and I find myself a lot less certain of my previous anti-Carth convictions. I guess for the moment I'll wait for Tai's rebuttal.

[Veryslightlymad]

My analysis:

Scum VERY RARELY targeted each other. The exceptions were when it was sure that Nitori and Cranbud needed to be jettisoned.

Kilga and Cranbud fought a lot, and that last ditch attempt by Kilga at yesterday (I am so, SO sorry that I wasn't around. There was disaster.) seems to clear him up.

Logically, there is NO REASON for Scum to want hammer. Letting the game go into sudden death/LYLO (Which I almost allowed. SORRY.) is a very good thing for Scum.

Thus, I think we can logically deduce that of the remaining people, Carth is the most likely scum.

My further evidence is that he never really fought the other scum except a tiiiiny exchange with Excal, where he voted for Excal, then unvoted, then admonished me severely for putting Excal at four votes. Excal later turned out to be Scum Godfather. This exchange is too weird.

[Taishyr]

Okay. Firstly, asdf I was wrong on Sopko. Gah. (Also, "Glory to Airyduck?" ...Best death line ever.)

Now, my suspicion is going to Kilgamayan; while Carthrat and Strago (yes, Strago is still a candidate, unless I missed some investigation that clears him) are both... possible, I don't feel this is likely, however, on consideration. Kilgamayan... just does not fit, in multiple regards.

1) Roleclaim timing seems off in general. I've already noted this in my previous post last day regarding this, here: yo.

2) An interesting aberration has occured, and I feel it important to point out; as I have stated earlier, Corwin was killed night 4, a very... bizarre choice for nightkills. Yes, he was an insightful townie. However, on each night save day 1 and day 4, a claimed power role was always struck down. Day 1 had no roleclaims; they struck at QuietRain.

Going into night 4, we had two power roles claimed (VSM and Kilgamayan) and one who was spinning out there in not-claiming-not-denying land (Strago). Why were none of these three people killed?

It seems obvious now, presuming Strago is town (an assumption I am willing to make, for now) and bulletproof, that Cranbud OR someone on the scum side did investigate him. I pointed this reasoning out earlier; the failure to target him for his hinting at a power role seems a decent enough proof of that.

Why VSM was not killed, I am unsure. However, since we are not in LYLO, it is, I feel, safe to presume he is town. (There are other possibilities, but I doubt any are in play. The paranoid side of my mind would, however, like to state that a role that allows someone a doublevote is a possibility... but that would still trigger LYLO because he could activate it on himself tomorrow, wouldn't it? No, he's cleared, I hadn't thought that through all the way).

This leaves Kilgamayan. Furthermore, if he were town, scum would not be sure when or how he would use his claimed shot of roleblocker; an ability that could quite possibly, later into the game, be used to nail down the final remaining scum without any problem. He hinted at using it day 4, but chose to, fairly, not state for sure or even on who (I do not think. If someone can prove or disprove this part, I'd appreciate it.) ...so why was he not targeted night 4, and the potential danger to scum eliminated?

If he is town, I can see no reasonable answer to this. Even if they were guessing that Corwin might have a power, to eliminate him instead of Kilgamayan, who did have a power, does not seem to add up with how they have gone about the rest of the game.

If he is scum, then... what? Either he has the ability he has claimed (he has at least shown evidence of a roleblock or something approaching it) or he has something else. This is territory we don't have much idea in, however, since his claimed Doc use cannot be proven and his claimed Cop use... could be easily mimicked by scum.

3) Regarding the claim of docbust on Yakumo: ... This is the part that makes me the most suspicious, though I must admit the problem I see here is a game of theoreticals as well as what has occured. I see two potentials here that involve Kilgamayan as town:

a) Scum have more than one docbust. There is a one-shot doc use.
b) Scum have one docbust. There is a one-shot doc use.

Both of these... Part a) is unlikely; to have a multi-use doc buster in a situation where the only doc is a one-shot use from a claimed jack-of-all-trades? This... I'm sorry, but this does not seem likely or even really possible at all; to have multiple docbuster uses when there is only one point at which the ability could be relevant seems nonsensical to the extreme.

Part b), then, seems the far more likely; one shot of doc, one shot of docbust to try and bypass it.

...CK.

CK was killed night 2, claimed Tracker. It feels far more likely to me, that with the Cop dead, the Scum would use the proposed one-shot of docbust here to eliminate the tracker; remember, there was no hint toward the large number of investigative roles at this time (aside from possible foreshadowing of said roles by the players who had them, but I did not notice anything, even in my most recent re-read).

So. Either there is one shot of Docbust, which was used not on CK, but on Yakumo; or there are multiple shots of docbuster... in a game where there would only be one use of a doctor ability, period.

...or there is no Doctor use in the hands of Town, nor Docbuster.

I believe this to be the most likely situation. The use of the oneshot roleblock on Strago to try and clear himself by vouching for his ability, and the timing of the roleclaim... He looks the worst to me currently, for the reasons stated above.

##Vote: Kilgamayan

I need to relook over Carthrat and Strago a bit more; while I believe them town... if I'm wrong on Kilgamayan, then one of you two must be scum, natch. Give me time to look this over.

------

...and a lot of posts go up between when I start typing all this up and now. Okay, give me time to look at the arguments against me now that I've got this written up.

[Strago]

You've neglected to consider one option, Tai. That scum have a shot of Docbust - attached to the final remaining scum, and lost if that scum were to die - that kicks in automatically when it is needed, and doesn't have to be designated when they choose the NK target. Unless my memory fails me utterly, this is exactly how the Docbust was supposed to work in FFT Mafia, so I see no reason for it to be ruled out entirely here.

[Carthrat]

In FFT mafia, Sopko had the docbuster role. However, it only triggered if he *wasn't* making the kill.

[Strago]

Right, but he still needed to be alive for that to happen. If our last scum is a Docbuster, this could be the case.

[Taishyr]

You've neglected to consider one option, Tai. That scum have a shot of Docbust - attached to the final remaining scum, and lost if that scum were to die - that kicks in automatically when it is needed, and doesn't have to be designated when they choose the NK target. Unless my memory fails me utterly, this is exactly how the Docbust was supposed to work in FFT Mafia, so I see no reason for it to be ruled out entirely here.

...

I've never seen such a role, myself, but... as unlikely as I consider it, that is another possiblity....

I don't know. I would think some sort of targeting mechanism would be more relevant. Also, what use does that give the claimed doctor ability?... QR.

Mrf. Lemme think on this, but my gut's still leaning toward Kilgamayan.