Random Mafia - Be Afraid...Very Afraid

[Meeplelard]

Regarding Alex's Haikus...

While I'd agree that poetry can be a pain to decipher...Haikus are poetry in a technical sense.  If you put them in regular sentence structure, they actually read normally; just there's a pattern of following syllables. 

Regarding Zenny's lurking from before...still not convinced that meant anything.  He claims he was AVAILABLE to do other stuff but was busy wasting time elsewhere...which makes sense based on how he was in chat (not there for the most part.)  Don't believe he was active much else on the boards in general during that time.  If Zenny was indeed truly lurking, and not "I had free time but chose to spend to elsewhere" like he claimed, there probably would be some dead give away, like I noted how Otter was actually still active in chat at times he wasn't in Mafia, and for long enough times to at least verify his existence.

He did vote for Otter before there was much of a hammer, and from what I recall, it was mostly just a survival instinct of try and get rid of the person who isn't me.

Now, regarding my thing with Smodge?
Its day 1, Smodge; there's very little to go on at all, so going on at all.  You were getting a bit too defensive, which is something to work with, and its not the "Shakiest reason ever" like someone once tried to nail me with in a different game.  I later elected to go after Otter when he out and out lied about something that I tried calling him out on, and as Alex noted, lying is one of the worst things for town, worse than even lurking.

ANyway, its hard to post when you're trying to catch up, so yeah, again, sorry for the lack of actual content.  I'll come up with something SOON that's actually worthwhile, I swear!

[Taishyr]

I voted for Zenthor because he was one of the two lurkers for a while. After that post, I failed to check the topic again for a while until I awoke to see Otter hammer himself. I was in the position us 'meatbags', as I'm sure Yakumo would affectionately say, call 'sleep'. Otter and Zenthor both posted about eight hours after my last post here, as reference. I was active in mIRC a bit, but not coherent. Well, less coherent than normal.

And now I am sick with something that is the opposite of fun.

Had I seen posts, I would have removed my vote and listened to them. I did not see the posts because I was not awake to see them. There is little more that can be said about this; it is the only point I have, is my non-presence.

Post from Smodge, four up:

Oh one thing i forgot, looking at Zenthors Roleclaim, i tend to believe it as there is a similarity between his character and Rats, due to this be random mafia and no actual flavor i can see there being a possibility that scum didn't receive a sheet of safe name-claims, however there are similarities between the 2 characters (despite this being random) and so i have a tendency to believe his claim.

Explain similarities. I do not see them, myself.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Ciato - Defended me, but then attacked me when i accidently incriminated myself further so the flip-flop had good reason, was the Beginning of the Otter train, this is what disturbs me slightly, although her vote had grounds both carth and Yakumo follow suit without even looking at Zenthor, Neutral to Town feel for me.

Your logic is really weird here. Why is QR given points for starting a train on someone whose identity is unknown but I'm suspicious for STARTING a train on Scum? o.O

[Smodge13]

Explain similarities. I do not see them, myself.

I'd rather not
It can be used to catch scum so i won't reveal it until its either proven wrong, or Zenthor is close to hammer.

[Smodge13]

Your logic is really weird here. Why is QR given points for starting a train on someone whose identity is unknown but I'm suspicious for STARTING a train on Scum? o.O

Not you i'm suspicious of, it was that Yakumo/Rat followed quickly without even mentioning Zenthor, the Suspicion wasn't on you but on Rat/Yakumo (although rat is obviously innocent).

[Luther Lansfeld]

*nods* Fair enough. I want to say that Rat seems like an exceptionally awkward kill for that reason. Although he can't really be tied to others, which I guess was the rationale. Or that Rat is too sexy for your shirts.

[Yakumo]

Analysis suggests this means that unlucky meatbag is suspicious of this unit... for the singular reason that this unit applied it's vote for the aquatic mammal, who was aligned with the enemy, yet did not attack other quiet meatbags?  Unless my memory circuits are malfunctioning, this unit has already explained the decision to utilize force on the aquatic mammal as opposed to other near-silent meatbags.  This unit possesses only a singular vote.

[AndrewRogue]

I'm going to say that you are BSing, Smodge, and challenge you to justify yourself. I'm familiar with both Eliwood and Brave, Brave Sir Robin, and there is not enough justifiable similarity to have any basis for believing well... anything, near as I can tell. You seem to really be confusing issues here, and you're not helping matters by throwing out "oh, I see something here" and then immediately retracting it with "I really can't say, it is important to catching scum!" This is not conducive to town at all, and seems designed specifically to get town jumping at shadows.

##Vote: Smodge

[Smodge13]

I'm going to say that you are BSing, Smodge, and challenge you to justify yourself.

Think about it this way, if i point out the similarity, won't scum eb able to use it for name claims themselves?
its a minor similarity but i have 3 names to go on for it Zenthors, Rats, my own.
2 could be coincidence, 3 isn't.
it's small but it's there and thats why i don't like to reveal it because it hinges on myself, scum won't be able to work it out WITHOUT more town names.

Analysis suggests this means that unlucky meatbag is suspicious of this unit... for the singular reason that this unit applied it's vote for the aquatic mammal, who was aligned with the enemy, yet did not attack other quiet meatbags?  Unless my memory circuits are malfunctioning, this unit has already explained the decision to utilize force on the aquatic mammal as opposed to other near-silent meatbags.  This unit possesses only a singular vote.

I know you explained Yakumo, i was just posting in response to Ciato's question, i'm not going to rewrite the whole list every single little time someone explains their actions.

[Smodge13]

Town look at your own names.
DO NOT REVEAL THEM, you should be able to work out the link, it's pretty obscure though.

[Yakumo]

This unit sees no connection between names "Eliwood" and "Brave Sir Robin", even if this unit leaves it's own name out of comparison.

[Meeplelard]

Eliwood: Generic FE Lord.  Red Hair, uses Swords, Anima Element, special weapons are Rapier and Durandal.  Stats are well balanced, personality is pretty generic "Nice guy and heroic" type thing, etc.  Also originally a Japanese character who was an NPC.

Sir Robin, the Not As Brave As Sir Lancelot: Humorous character from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, Red Hair, played by Eric Idle, origin of movie is Brittish, uses swords, completely cowardly, holds a shield with a chicken on it, does not know the capital of Assyria.

...yeah, ok, basically, the only connection I see is "Swords" and "Red Hair." And Robin's Red Hair could just be me thinking oddly.  Also noteworthy that OK has a low opinion of Eliwood (hence "Elitard") and it seems like everyone in this is some sort of hatable character in OK's eyes one way or another, and...yeah.  Though, I figured Eliwood would be a Scum given how much he opens about hating him, but I guess Evil is reserved for the people he absolutely despises (I wouldn't be surprised if, say, Alicia from VP2 is Scum, for example.)

Frankly, the two are...not a like at all.  I see really no connection whatsoever.  It'd be one thing if Zenny claimed, say, Justin from Grandia; at least there we'd have 2 RPG Main Characters with Red Hair, who I don't think OK has a less than favorable opinion of (I think?) But...yeah...

...on the other hand...hmm...thinking about it...

There may be one connection the two have that I just realized:
Nobility.  Knight of the Round Table = Sir Robin, Eliwood = Noble Lord.  If I'm right, I think this is going to be divided where Good = Nobility/Royalty/etc. and Bad = Not.  Its a shakey connection, but its there; note that the only other revealed person (and this is assuming Zenny did in fact reveal his role name) was Shion, who does not fit that connection.

[Luther Lansfeld]

But that doesn't actually mean much of anything... <_<

[QuietRain]

Well, if you're seeing a connection, it's lost on little ole me, smodge.  I can't figure out what my person has anything to do with the other two, but *shrug*.  I've learned in themed games not to overanalyze who someone is.  It's generally intentionally misleading on the part of the Mod just for S&G.

[Smodge13]

Yeah, it could be minor, personally i doubt it though and its the reason i believe Zenny's roleclaim.
i'm surprised no one could spot it though so maybe it is just coincidence.
Owel, if scum claim a town name though i may be able to point it out so i'll consider the theory a work in progress for now.

[Meeplelard]

Well, my general thought with that connection is it fits with my own role, but sounds like it could be a mere coincidence, so eh...

[EvilTom]

Town look at your own names.
DO NOT REVEAL THEM, you should be able to work out the link, it's pretty obscure though.

I have no idea what you're talking about whatsoever. Either tell us what you think it is, or I'm going to agree with Andrew and say you're spouting BS on this one. I can't see any link.

[Ranmilia]

Andrew's right on this.
You can't make that kind of claim
and not follow through.

I have a feeling
that this is going to lead
to PM quoting

or something like that,
so I won't vote Smodge for now.
But he needs to spill.

General bad vibe
about Smodge is increasing.
This better be good.

[AndrewRogue]

Having mulled over this possibility, I see a possible connection now. But I want to elaborate these particular points that make me particularly suspicious of Smodge.

1. He instilled the possibility of a pattern in our mind, and reserved the right to announce what it was, effectively allowing him to justify scum roleclaims when they come up, as well as possibly "forcing" town to accept roleclaims based on (actually imagined) patterns.

2. He has provided the possibility of a pattern... which tells us nothing. Yes, town could be named/oriented one way and scum all another. In fact, it is quite possible. But we don't know if they have safe claims (note, Otter showed us nothing by lynching himself beyond what a sample scum role was, not what a scum cover role could be). We are being set to trust role claims on the basis that they sound right by name alone, which is NOT good in mafia.

3. Accepting the possibility that the idea of the pattern is accepted, we are also forced to distrust roleclaims that do not sync with the perceived pattern. The problem with this is that there could be townies who do not fit within the pattern specifically to interfere with the dreaded mass roleclaim. In this case, we're predisposed to distrust a roleclaim that doesn't fit with the pattern.

So in other words, the matter of a pattern is... fairly irrelevant in the first place, unless the game is inherently broken by a mass roleclaim. If it is broken, well... that's that. If it isn't, we're setting ourselves up for a stupid fall by wasting time on figuring out the role pattern and using it as a noteworthy clue to an individual's alignment.

Furthermore... I'm bothered by the fact that you haven't addressed any of my defense, despite the fact that you feel I'm a likely scum candidate. Explanation?

[Smodge13]

General Pattern was we're all weak useless bastards.
Brave Sir Robin who runs away,
Eliwood who OK has some disgruntlement with hence Elitard and in his PoV could never get laid.
Myself, i'll leave that blank unless everyone thinks its necessary.

As for your defence Andrew, all i can find is that don't find the person who hammers automatically suspicious because someone HAS to hammer, and you were busy.

As i mentioned to Yakumo, i'm not going to rewrite that whole list whenever someone defends themselves.

[Smodge13]

I have a feeling
that this is going to lead
to PM quoting

I'm not THAT dumb.

[AndrewRogue]

Speculative addendum to the above. This is ALL speculation, based on a problem I had earlier, and one that I just noticed. Be wary!

I notice you said you'd reveal the pattern if it was proven wrong or if ZENNY was in danger of being lynched. Which bothers me, as wouldn't you want to do it for ANY townie who roleclaimed while in danger of being lynched? Which returns me to a point I made previously regarding self lynches: why on EARTH would you do it when there was another candidate (ala Zenny) to try and push suspicion off onto? Aside from crap playing, which I know Otter well shouldn't be guilty of, there's really only one obvious answer: his logical patsy is ALSO scum, and considered more valuable for one reason or another.

So, presume for a moment that this theory is correct. This brings us to the question of why Smodge is working so hard to protect Zenny. There are two answers, really. Either he is sticking his neck WAY out there on pure, gut instinct for Zenny, or he knows Zenny's alignment. Given the effort put into this, as well as where it is putting HIS neck, I can't imagine it is based on gut instinct. Presuming my above logic is correct regarding Otter/Zenny, then that means that Smodge must ALSO be scum.

His vote record does nothing to defend him (a scum was going down either way, so he jumps on the lynch victim to scum bus), opposition to him turned up dead (Carth) and his espousing fairly faulty logic designed to confuse town and get them chasing ghosts.

So yeah. Talk to us.

Addendum based on posting while I was writing... yeah. No. I'm not buying that as a real pattern without some serious evidence. That is tenuous as all living hell. To your second sentence... try that again in English? To the third sentence... no, you shouldn't, but you should damn well address their points and have your arguments evolve.

[AndrewRogue]

Addendum part the whatever. Screw you edit button.

Yes, I realize saying Zenny could be just a generalization or a slip of the tongue. But that's the sort of thing that also exposes lies. So yes, I'm having a grain of salt, but it really bothers me in the context of the scenario.

[Ranmilia]

Pattern is untrue.
My role does not fit those things.
I will say no more.

Yakko's char's also
kind of obvious, at least
the one he's playing.

That pattern is weak
at best, more likely misleading.
Why bring it up now?

At what point do we
see Smodge's play as scumtells
and not "bad townie"?

On the one hand, his
bumblings seem a bit too
outre to be scum.

On the other hand,
if I was his scumbuddy
I'd advise him thus:

"Play poor, really poor,
and town will dismiss it as
just Smodge being Smodge."

Scum did have Otter,
we know that much, and Otter's
strategy's like mine.

So I'm not buying
incompetence defense now.
Mang, he looks like scum.

##Vote for Smodge 13
again.  Discussion welcome.
His play requires it.

[Meeplelard]

General Pattern was we're all weak useless bastards.
Brave Sir Robin who runs away,
Eliwood who OK has some disgruntlement with hence Elitard and in his PoV could never get laid.
Myself, i'll leave that blank unless everyone thinks its necessary.

Thing is, whose to say Scum aren't in the same situation?  To give you a counter point...

Shion was Otter, he was scum.  When OK plays XS games, he puts Shion in his team and lets her die ON PURPOSE (...well, don't think he did this in XS2 cause team work is too damned important.)  Yes, he purposely cripples his team by putting Shion in there and keeping her dead, just for the hell of it.

So from the logic of "Eliwood is crappy cause mine sucked lalala not hearing anything!" that OK tends to take (facetiously mind...at least I think it is), I could say the same about Shion for him.  That's probably the roles that most of us are in this game, scum and town alike (and 3rd party if they exist.)  Really, its not strong enough to work off of.

At least my theory (Nobility) fit since it works with Sir Robin, Eliwood, and my own Role, and scum NOT being nobles fits given Shion, but it seems several people have claimed it doesn't fit their role, so I regarded it as a mere coincidence.