Simpsons Mafia GAME OVER - TOWN WIN

[Yoshiken]

Yoshi: Voting for Delta yesterday is not comparable to voting Ryogo today. Ryogo is a genuine lurker--he was here yesterday, fairly active for the first half of the day, but disappeared once things got hairy. Delta for most of day one was genuinely not in the game--he hadn't posted, there was nothing people voting on him could ask him to answer because he had no material on the record. This is a significant difference to me. I must also point out that Alex's vote for Ryogo happened just as this game-day began. At that time, it was not unreasonable to assume that Ryogo would be back. If Alex keeps pushing for Ryogo's lynch in light of the looming modkill, then I'll grant that there's a parallel. As it stands, though, I don't believe the comparison is accurate.

I'd also like to point out a flaw in the following comparison:

- Everything I said about Snowfire earlier still holds, and is amplified by his unvoting, not talking about anyone he finds scummy and leaving a note that he may not even be back or have a vote down at deadline.  Whaaaaat?  Snow, who do you think is scum?  Everyone else, why do I see him getting a free pass for this?

Xanth, quick rundown on who you think is scummy and why while we're waiting?

To refer to Tom's argument against Excal earlier...

I've noticed that scum like to dichotomise lynch candidates - so that's been a scumtell I watch for. Ie: 'If I had to pick from X/Y' or 'Which of X/Y would you lynch' etc.

I don't believe that the Alex quotes you selected represent precisely the sort of behavior that Tom described. Alex outright asked people "Who do you find scummy?" Not "Out of these options, pick one," no attempts to nudge people down one of two paths.

Hrm. This has made me consider this quite a bit... I'd change vote for Excal/Tom (would need more analysis to decide which), but I'd still like Alex to answer for the points on my last post. Seems he's made a good effort to not respond to those on this page, whether accidental or intentional. Until then, seeing as I'm not likely to be here for the end of the day, I guess there's not much left I can do. I understand my vote for Alex won't do much, but I'll leave it there regardless - suspicions not entirely clear, but it probably won't affect final outcomes anyway, ne?

[Carthrat]

All these mysterious mysteries with roles crawling out the woodwork a short time before lynch. Colour me unsurprised. Delta said pretty much what I'm thinking about Alex's pseudoclaim.

Agreeing with Cid's assessment of Delta, on that note. If he was setting out to bus meeple... I can't imagine why he'd do that with Xanth right there, short of a delta/xanth/meeple scumteam (which brings me to the question of why xanth didn't shoot down Meeple, if that's direction scum were taking. So yeah it's terribly unlikely.)

I'm pretty comfortable sticking with Ryogo right now, modkill or not- though Excal would probably be my next bet. It worries me that his only significant post has come on the heels of a threat of getting lynched.

Yoshiken: Given that in the previous day, it was a single vote that caused one guy to be lynched over another, I find it strange that you'd discount the effect yours can have. Please reconsider.

Sorry this is so short, unavoidable sleeping mishaps occured.

[EvilTom]

I'm heading out now, don't know if I'll be back in time before deadline. I'm no longer on the block, and it doesn't looks like I need to claim, so I'll leave it at that.

[SnowFire]

##UNVOTE Dread Thomas
##VOTE Excal

Because of Sir Alex's post.

El Cid: This whole conversation is weird as by the time I had gotten home, Meeple had copclaimed anyway which rendered my earlier thoughts about Meeple mostly moot.  Let me just say first that I was agreeing with the substance of your thoughts in general - that mistakes are suspicious and a valid reason to lynch someone.  For our case in specific - I thought Meeple's vote against Delta was a minor mistake at worst.  Which is why I was not violently opposed to the Meeple train even if I wasn't on it- especially since it was Day1, minor mistakes are likely the only thing the town has to work with - but I wouldn't have thought it was the most productive possible lynch even pre-copclaim.  And after the copclaim...  hammering Meeple would have been lunacy, which is why I didn't.

As for my comment on town mistakes / scum mistakes...  I'll give it one more try.
Person A has played a horrible game for the town.  He's constantly suggesting bad lynches on specious grounds.
Person B has played a normal townie game.
Person C has ringlead a successful lynch of a mafia member.

It's not rocket science to say that while even Person C might be mafia on some kind of gambit, they're lower on the suspicion scale than B, which is lower than A.

Now let's reverse that.
Person A has played a game which, if he's scum, makes perfect sense - trying to divert attention from members who are later proven mafia, and saying general bad things about actual mafia members but never really pushing against them.
Person B has played a game that, if scum, he's acted like a normal townie.
Person C has played a game that, if he's scum, he's made major unforced errors, like letting his scumfriends die when he could save them without looking bad.

Again, it's patently obvious that Person A is under more suspicion, and Person C is, if they're scum, screwing up or doing some kind of crazy gambit. Xanth's moves at the end of Day 1 don't strike me as a gambit to gain the town's trust if he was really scum; no, they're errors.  Which is possible!  But still low on the suspicion scale.

[Yoshiken]

Tch. I've still got problems trying to decide who seems the most suspicious at the moment - the obvious point is that, if Alex/Tom comes out as town/scum, it's quite likely the other is. And if they come out as one, Excal is most likely the other, and vice versa. Or, at least, that's how I'm seeing things - it had come down to Excal/Tom/Ryogo, and now Ryogo's under modkill risk and Tom's got Alex's claim backing. That only leaves Excal, but only if Alex's claim is to be entirely believed.
For the sole reason that I don't want to be voting a potential town role, I'll:
##Unvote: Alex
##Vote: Excal
As said, seems like the only logical conclusion, assuming Alex's claim is true. If Ryogo returns, easily the most suspicious of the lot solely for the absence, but otherwise, if scumExcal, then yay! If townExcal, I'd safely assume scumAlex & (most probably) scumTom. Either way, it seems voting Excal is gonna be beneficial to town, so I'll go with this.
(Apologies for rushed post - tired and off to sleep. Won't be around for deadline, I assume.)

[Sierra]

So, forty-five minutes left in the day and it looks like we're cruising towards a Ryogo lynch (by my count, he has four votes to Excal's three; could be off, since it's been a while since we had a votecount, but I checked a couple times). Not entirely happy about this since it feels like we're wasting an opportunity by killing someone who's about to get nuked for idleness anyway, but it's still preferable to the shelved Tom train.

Is anyone else around? This much silence just before a deadline is...eerie. (And scary!)

[Ranmilia]

Vaguely kinda sorta here.  What would be really nice is if we could get the modkill on Ryogo and then an extension of a day or so to deal with it.  If that won't fly, I'm down with an effective Excal/Ryogo double lynch, I guess. 

[Hunter Sopko]

Late hammer due to time, stop talking.

[Hunter Sopko]

Town felt pretty damn good about themselves after yesterday. No one likes a come from behind lynching quite like Springfield! Losing their respected medical community the night after was unfortunate though. For more reasons than one! That means Dr. Nick Riviera is in charge of the general health and well-being of the town!

But that made them think. How DOES he manage a job at the hospital, several clinics AND make housecalls despite his incompetance? Hell, he's even trusted with quadruple bypass surgeries! It HAS to be due to connections! He's gotta be a Stonecutter!

Sadly, it was only remembered afterwards that Dr. Nick was never a Stonecutter and was still successful. Musta been that smarmy foreign charm.

Good thing that Dr. Nick doesn't qualify as a doctor by any stretch of the imagination. 

Votecount:
Strago (0): Cid
Ryogo (4): Alex, Cid, Rat, Xanth, Tom
EvilTom (2): Xanth, Andy, Delta, Snowfire, Excal
Delta (0): EvilTom
Alex (0): Yoshiken
Excal (3): EvilTom, Cid, Snowfire, Yoshiken

Ryogo, AKA Dr. Nick Riviera, VANILLA TOWN, was lynched!

It is now Night Two. Send in night actions!

[Hunter Sopko]

Carl couldn't help sticking up for his best pal Lenny. This unfortunately didn't escape the notice of the Stonecutters.

In these troubled times you should never be away from your best friend, but for the life of him Carl had no idea where Lenny lived. So it was only a matter of time before the Stonecutters cornered him alone at night and put a permanent end to the greatest friendship ever told.

 "Aw nuts. I mean! ...aw nuts."

SirAlex AKA Carl Carlson, TOWN LIMITED MASON, was killed overnight!

Day Three ends in 48 hours.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Deltaflyer]

I would like to see Xanth and Excal's thoughts on these developments. Excal, especially appears to be lurking, and looking down the recent posts in the topic summary, I cannot see an Excal or Andy post. Post more, you two.

I am going to accept Alex's claims from yesterday, ET would appear to be town. I am shifting towards what Alex said earlier, about an Excal lynch looking good right now. Going to give some proper contribution when people post.

[Yoshiken]

Wow. That's either really clever or really dumb of scum. Seems like there are some things for me to seriously consider here, especially as, up until late yesterday, I was still suspicious of Alex.
Most suspicious in my eyes now are Excal, Andy & Delta, in that order.
Excal/Andy have both been quite quiet, which seems more than a little suspicious. Excal's higher on the list for the sole reason that he was the first to unvote Tom after Alex's role revelation, yet didn't vote anyone else or even so much as comment on his thoughts on the matter.
Delta... A little more complex than just "he's not around much". Firstly, Alex seems to have been focusing on him quite a bit - knowing the role now, I can't help but wonder why so much attention has been paid specifically to Delta (and also Snow, as it happens, although that was in reverse - Day2, he suddenly took all attention off Snow, giving seemingly bad reasons.) With that said, I'd safely say that if scumSnow -> scumDelta, and if townDelta -> townSnow. (Those don't work in reverse, mind.)
The problem with Delta is the Meeple vote. Even ignoring Rat's unnoticed vote, that would have pushed Meeple into the lead on votes. That's either a very crazy strategy or town, and it just seems too crazy to even risk, unless Xanth is scum with role.

I'm interested in knowing what others think on the matter regarding Delta.
And I can't help but feel there's a flaw in my logic regarding Alex's role, so I'd muchly appreciate some feedback on that.

[Sierra]

##Vote: Excal

Because we should've lynched him yesterday. Low presence, only made a major case when pushed (and said case was against someone I fully believe to be a townie), on the Xanth train day one (see what I've previously said about either Xanth or his early voters being scum; obviously not fullproof, as evidenced by Ryogo's flip, but it's only part of larger case here). Also the only living player who didn't have a vote down by the end of yesterday.

Other stuff: Tom is cleared, let's not waste any more time on his case. The way yesterday sadly limped to a close, with the lynch of someone who was going to be modkilled anyway (and who turned out to be a townie) has me looking very hard at people who were inactive in the latter portion of the day or who had a role in putting Ryogo before Excal. For the first category? Andy. What happened, man. Pretty much everyone else puts their two cents in sometime in the last twelve hours or so before deadline, but you just vanished. This is Not a Good Thing.

People on Ryogo at the end of the day: Alex (irrelevant, since he's dead and flipped town), Tom (pretty much cleared, and the vote was understandable since at the time he made it the choices were himself and Ryogo), Xanth, and Rat. Xanth? You said I wouldn't like your reasons for supporting Excal, but I'm going to need to hear them anyway. Please be concise.

Carthrat. You had a vote sitting on Ryogo at the end of the day but were content to let him swing instead of Excal. You don't really elaborate on why, however, and on rereading your posts I find that you've virtually never talked about Excal--yet you proclaim that Excal is "the next best bet" at the end of day two. This does not make sense and I require an explanation.

~

General impressions of people right now:

Tom/Delta: Pretty confident these guys are town, not really looking at them right now.

Rat: Dunno. Has read as mostly townie but I'm not as confident as about the above two. Little weirded out by how he paid lip service to the possibility of an Excal lynch without actually elaborating on his reasons or committing to this course of action, starting to reconsider by previous assessment that he's town.

Yoshi/Snowfire/Andy: Possible scum. Andy in particular is looking pretty bad for leaving a vote sitting on Tom and not making an appearance later in the day to see if anything changed. Scum find it very convenient to be inactive at times when being present and involved in the discussion might force them to make a choice they don't like (I.E., moving a vote off a townie who was about to be lynched). Would like to hear everyone's thoughts on him right now since I'm increasingly convinced that he's a solid suspect.

Xanth/Excal: Most suspicious.

EDIT: Ack, Yoshininja. Moment.

[Sierra]

Delta... A little more complex than just "he's not around much". Firstly, Alex seems to have been focusing on him quite a bit - knowing the role now, I can't help but wonder why so much attention has been paid specifically to Delta

I doubt Alex's interest in Delta had anything to do with his role, personally. "Limited Mason" suggests to me that he and his partner (I assume Tom) could talk as much as they wanted outside the thread but not bring anyone else into their confidence.

I imagine scum targeted Alex last night because they thought he was suggesting a cop claim. Which makes me wonder if the scum team may comprise our less experienced players (sorry, guys), since I've seen roles like two-man mason cells before and this was the first thing I thought of when it become apparent that both Alex and Tom had roles (Lenny & Carl, life partners! Ahahaha. Although I'd caution against inferring roles based on flavor because neither Hibbert nor Dr. Nick were docs--and because, well, see day one Meeple--it seems it was accurate in this case. At my most paranoid I wondered if they might be scum perpetrating a crazy gambit and hoping people would believe it because of LENNY + CARL, but the actual scum have gone and debunked that theory. That's the bright spot in this: losing Alex sucks, but we basically have a confirmed townie in Tom.)

Anyway, as for Delta, I still have a lot of trouble seeing him as scum based on the fact that it was basicaly his vote that pushed Meeple in the lead day one. I'm open to arguments for Scum Delta, but I've asked for this before and no one's been able to produce anything compelling.

[Excal]

...huh.  That means...  unless the roles are really screwy, that there were no scum on Xanth's train.  And Alex, the guy threatening to hammer, also wasn't scum.

Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today.  But it seems that is not so, so...  dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.

[Yoshiken]

Just to look over posts from the previous 2 days...
(I've taken out those who've been killed already, just so I can focus on who's left.)
Ryogo (4): Rat, Xanth, Tom
EvilTom (2): Andy, Delta
Excal (3): Cid, Snowfire, Yoshiken

Meeple (5):  Andy, Rat, Cid, Delta
Xanth (4): Excal, EvilTom

OK, looking at these... Wow. I'm inclined to say the votes alone point directly to one person - Excal.
##Vote: Excal.
There's also the lurking problem - low number of posts with relatively little content. I'm still surprised there was no comment after removing the vote from Tom...

Snow - I still have my suspicions here - I mentioned those yesterday on the idea of an Alex/Snow scum combo. While Alex has been proved to be town, you've not. I'd like to know your reasons for voting Excal yesterday, since you only mentioned reasons for not voting Tom.
Cid - I'm definitely leaning towards town. Was a major factor in Meeple going, and started the Excal train which, at this point, I think is probably right.
Tom - Nothing much to say, really. Town, simple as that.
Xanth - Waiting to see your comments on the latest developments. I haven't really got much out of your Day2 posts, in all honesty.
Andy - Talk! Definitely suspicious, if only for the fact that you've not been posting. Meep vote good, Tom vote bad, so neutral going by votes. Probably second-most suspicious for me at this point.
Delta - Hrm. Cid does hold a good point on the Meeple-vote. That, and I wasn't particularly sure on the role (thanks for clearing that up, Cid), so nothing particularly bad to say. Still haven't found anything particularly good either, though, so I'm only slightly leaning town here for the Meeple-vote.
Rat - Talk more! Aside from that, I'm leaning town here. Voted Ryogo, said Excal would be 2nd and gave reasons, and voted Meeple Day1. Seems fairly town to me, although that depends on how things develop.

Edit: Excalninja - doesn't change much until he posts again.

[Deltaflyer]

 5 Guests, 17 Users (2 Hidden) Users active in past 15 minutes:
Deltaflyer2k8, Pyro, SnowFire, Xeroma, Unoriginal, Dark Holy Elf, Yoshiken, AndrewRogue, ThePiggyman, metroid composite, El Cideon, Excal, dude789, Talaysen, Hunter Sopko
 
I do hope these two in bold are making their posts now, Snowfire has been online (or at least in this list) since the game day started.

That said, ##Vote: Excal

With the least contribution, and some major problems with this statement here:

Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today.  But it seems that is not so, so...  dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.

At this crucial point in the game, he is seemingly unwilling to make contributions. Sorry Excal, but you appear to be the best to go right now, in my eyes at least.

[SnowFire]

##VOTE Excal

Same as yesterday, in light of the EvilTom revelations.

The one thing that makes me nervous about this is that Excal said in his post that he agrees that there's scum likely in the Xanth train.  That would be a brave thing for scum to say, since they're already down one member and such logic would eventually doom Excal no matter what...  but I suppose also something tough to argue against if theoretical scum-Excal were to attempt to make that case.

Player comments:

EvilTom: Confirmed town.

Xanth: We haven't really learned anything new since Day2, and people know my opinion from then.

El Cid: Still gets major credit for being early on the Meeple train and pushing it.

Delta: Agree with the light townie read for his Meeple vote on Day1, can't say much more beyond that.

AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active.  And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched.  The one notable exception to this scenario...  a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal.  In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd).  In other words, if we lynch Excal and he flips scum, AndrewRogue will look really evil.  Otherwise, he's at a similar level to, say, Carth (both on the Meeple train Day1, both somewhat quiet Day2).

Carthrat: See above.

StragoYoshi: Seems to be playing the part of the dutiful townie, but votes / actions aren't giving much of a read (not really his fault due to the player switch).  Can't say much, though he's not lurking, which is good.

Conclusion: We're still kind of at the same logic as Day2 - examine the Xanth train from Day1.  If Excal flips town...  we're really going to need more of a read on Carthrat, Andy, Delta, and Yoshi.

[Excal]

Uhhh...  guys, -1 warning here.  I can appreciate you all feel really, really certain that you've got me.  But don't end the day after only a few hours on this, alright?

[Deltaflyer]

Granted, I want to hear EVERYONE's input on this. Andy, Xanth and ET havent spoken yet, and I want their input on today's matters.

DO NOT HAMMER EXCAL YET.


Please?

[SnowFire]

Excal: I got ninjaed by Delta.  Sure, if you want time to post...
##UNVOTE Excal.

As for Delta...  Yes, I was writing my post for the past twenty minutes or so.  I have no idea how the "users active" tab works but since it says for me

"Total time logged in: 18 days, 4 hours and 50 minutes."

I'm not sure how useful it is?  I will say with respect to the "on all day" comment that I checked the Mafia thread before going to church today at ~12:45 or so.  I logged on to re-check and write my post when I got back at ~3:00 or so.

[Yoshiken]

##Unvote: Excal
No harm in this - might as well see what's said and then decide. Can always re-vote if needed.

Granted, I want to hear EVERYONE's input on this. Andy, Xanth and ET havent spoken yet, and I want their input on today's matters.

Rat too. Strangely, I'm particularly interested in hearing what Rat has to say. Probably because I'm leaning town, but still relatively unsure on that, so I'd like to see what could develop there.

[Deltaflyer]

It just shows you who has been online the the last 15 minutes, at the bottom. Total time logged in is... just that. A total of all your time logged in currently. My vote is still on Excal to keep the pressure on him for now. I honestly cannot wait until Xanth and ET come on.

Andrew is already online, and has been for a while now :/

Yoshininja'd. I forgot about Rat. Just shows that he needs to post more.

[Sierra]

Whoa, I go archive-diving for a bit and we hit -1 to hammer somehow. Yeah, no lynch yet, please. There are several people we badly need to hear from still.

Snowfire: In the event of ninjaposts, always at least scan through them to see if the people before you placed votes, even if you have time to read the posts in full (Ctrl + F, search for ##. That should let you cycle through all the votes and unvotes on the page quickly). It's just a good precautionary measure that helps avoid accidental lynches.

Anyway, gotta read new stuff now.

[Sierra]

Blah, that should've read "even if you DON'T have time to read the posts in full."