Simpsons Mafia GAME OVER - TOWN WIN

[Sierra]

Responding to things as I go along.

...huh.  That means...  unless the roles are really screwy, that there were no scum on Xanth's train.  And Alex, the guy threatening to hammer, also wasn't scum.

Well, there's always Meeple. He was scum! Anyway, it sounds like you've concluded that a notable chunk of the surviving playerbase is town, Excal. Care to tell us who you think is scum?

Also, I was totally expecting to be dead and thus, able to get some quality video gaming time in today.  But it seems that is not so, so...  dangit, gonna actually have to reat stuff and form opinions.

Yeah, sorry about that, man. >.>

[AndrewRogue]

Sure, nobody posts in the evening before, but the day of WHAM. Text everywhere.

Anyhow, in the light of the morning sun, Tom looks clear, so clearly my train of reasoning ends there.

To get something out there ASAP... I'm actually a bit bothered by both Excal and Yoshiken at this juncture. While Yoshi makes a fairly logical point about Excal... it is also worth mentioning that Strago himself didn't have a vote on either candidate as well. And, although Strago offered a brief explanation, it doesn't particularly clear him (or his successor). So while Excal is a viable candidate, Yoshi's own logic for that vote also speaks against him. This seems like really sloppy argumentation to me, and makes me rather uncomfortable.

##Vote: Yoshi

Rat is another individual who stands out for his odd comment about wanting to lynch Ryogo yesterday. I'm hard pressed to find a town based reason for this. Perhaps he could illuminate his logic?

Ninja: Geeze, we're moving fast here. Posting this now so people see that I'm working here. >_>

[SnowFire]

El Cid: Good advice, thanks.

Also quick response, something I missed responding to from Yoshi's earlier post:

Snow - I'd like to know your reasons for voting Excal yesterday, since you only mentioned reasons for not voting Tom.

Simple - the whole Xanth train (Excal, Ryogo, Tom) was suspicious.  After Tom was cleared, that left Ryogo and Excal, and I agreed with El Cid that spending a vote on someone likely to be modkilled was not the best usage of the lynch.  And it's hard to get a read off total absence (since it usually means out-of-game issues), while Excal had at least showed up enough to be suspicious in his lurking.

[Excal]

Yeah, definatly support Cid on the search for votes thing.

That said...  ##Vote: AndrewRogue

What's the difference between Andy and myself?  He's been shouting at people and voted Meeple instead of Xanth.  Thaaat's...  about it, really.

First post is just a 'let's do serious voting now' thing, with his follow up being 'dear lord, my serious vote post got serious votes on me.  Irony!'

Third post, and pretty much final one for the day starts with a defense of lurker voting that...  completely ignores the actual arguments used against Meeple followed by paraphrasing Bard's indictment of Meeple and a vote.  The rest of it is a question for Cid (helpful) and telling everyone else to talk more, which is more of an effective smoke screen.  It gives you the look of being active and helpful at the time for folks skimming over, but doesn't actually help in any meaningful way.

The only real problem with Andy is at the end of Day 1, where he has a nice post outlining the cases on the major folks for the day.  But doesn't really outline anything new aside from a general dismissal of Meeple's defense.  I'm not sure how to read that one, though I'm also not sure it would register anything unless scum were trying to act as a team to deflect obvious criticism.

His next two posts are Day 2, and they both focus pretty exclusively on Tom.  It's hard to catch as he does have sections on other people, but the two of substance, one of them outlines a case against Xanth, and the other is focussed on explaining why Tom is scummy to someone else.

So...  yeah.

There are my thoughts on Andy.


EDIT to Cidninjary (Nothing for the others)

Well, I think one of them is fairly obvious as of right now.  Rat, Yoshi and Snowfire are the other three I consider highly suspicious, with Yoshi being top on the list.  And Xanth...  he makes good arguments, but the reveal about Meeple being the only scum on him really caught me for a loop, and I really want to review what he said now.

[Sierra]

AndrewRogue: Not sure if I'm as against him as El Cid; yesterday was Saturday after all, and any player (scum or town) would probably have switched their vote if they'd been genuinely active.  And EvilTom was already out of the woods as far as being lynched.  The one notable exception to this scenario...  a scumteam with Meeple/Andy/Excal.  In that case, pretending inactivity and letting Ryogo get lynched would be in his interest (as swapping to Ryogo would look a bit odd).

The bolded sentence is the theory I was working from, yes.

EDIT: Blugh, ninjastorm. Have new Andy/Snow/Excal stuff to read now.

[Excal]

Alright, time to put out some more general thoughts on people now that I feel fairly confident on where folks stand.  As well as some of the whys.

Town:

Tom - None of this is on his merits as of present, but more because a limited Mason stepped in and said he's cool, and then we get a flip showing why.

Cid - Part of it's the feel of his arguing.  Part of it is the timing on his Meeple vote.  He very deliberately chose to push Meeple over the edge, and that says something to me.  Especially since I'm not sure Cid could coldly do that to a team power role.

Delta - Also pushed to lynch Meeple.  Not just vote him, but lynch him.  And I have even less belief he could do that to a powerful teammate with a straight face.

And...  that's it for Town aligned in my eyes.

Xanth probably looks best of the rest.  If only because I have respect for him, and...  I just can't see them getting into a situation like that if he was around and saw what was coming.  That said, Tom's good at catching people off guard, and the people making the strongest arguments for him were all squarely on Meeple...

Blarg, scum Xanth just really makes for some screwy scenarios I haven't properly thought about yet, and until I do, he's going to be very fluid in my rankings.


Rat - Yeah, he voted Meep.  Hell, he was the one who lynched Meep.  Though, not sure how much credit I give there.  His was the last Meeple vote that also wasn't given for the express purpose of seeing him lynched.  Sure, it would have pushed him ahead if it was counted, but Rat gave no indication that he was aware of that.  Additionally, his vote is on Ryogo on Day 2, when it's established that may not do anything besides lynch a modkill (which it indeed would have).  So, I'm not that inclined to give him scum kill credit, and he's got at least one very odd move going against him.


Snowfire - Is... odd.  He's screwed up a lot, but I'm not sure if he's screwed up in any way that I would call scummy.  And since mistakes aren't the sole property of scum, it's possible that he's town.  As such...  yeah.  No real clue where he stands.


Yoshi - I'll just start by saying I need to go back and reread Yoshi here.  Very definately reread.  That said, Strago...  made some great points, in fact, he had one of the better anti-Meeple posts on day 1.  Then  doesn't vote, replies with something saying he'd probably be back later to vote, and never shows up.  Sure, the replacement really does suggest a reasonable excuse for this.  But scum can have legit excuses just as easily as town can.  And, he had a damn solid Day 1 case that didn't have any real competition I recall.  So, why no vote?  As for Yoshi, most of what I remember of Yoshi is a lot of coverage on everyone.  So, yeah, my case is mostly based on Day 1 Strago here.

Andy - I already talked about.

So, yeah.  I'm leaning towards an Andy/Yoshi lynch at present.

[AndrewRogue]

Now, to try and further explicate some of my thoughts!

Yoshi: Strago initially does next to nothing on day one, except supporting cases on Meeple and Tom. Ends up not placing a vote by the end of the day. Yoshi picks up from there and... proceeds to present a strong-ish case on Alex (which turns out to be mistaken). Besides that... Yoshi mostly makes scatter point posts which aren't really good for much. They let you look like you are saying a lot without saying very much at all. It is also worth noting that Yoshi chooses to use some dangerous logic back near the end of yesterday

If townExcal, I'd safely assume scumAlex & (most probably) scumTom. Either way, it seems voting Excal is gonna be beneficial to town, so I'll go with this.

This kind of unsubstantiated "If X, then Y" sort of logic is baaad. Like, really bad. ESPECIALLY in this case. It looks a lot like he was trying to tear down the claims of Alex and Tom in... frankly? What would be a pretty dangerous and suicidal gambit at a point where it would be completely illogical. For that scum combination to have happened, they would have to have been preeetty much the ballsiest/stupid scum I have ever seen, or the game would have needed some serious bastard modding.

[Xanth]

Back but not really around for comment yet. Don't wait up for me, as I'll be a handful of hours yet. I'll expand on the following later, but here's a quick view of my position if anyone wants to work with it now.

In short, I'm frustrated that Ryogo wasn't even scum in the end, as that was supposed to be the baseline gain from that day. I'm really not as sold on Excal as the rest of the player base seems to be at this point, based primarily on the directions of his arguments from yesterday (that on a quick skim seem to have continued into today). With my primary line of suspects (Tom, Ryogo and Excal) exhausted without any gain at all, my next port of call is to re-examine the next line of people down, which would be Yoshi, Andy and Cid, probably in that order. In addition to Excal, that is, but I'm just not feeling that. Why bother going to such lengths to argue yourself into a corner? It's possible I'm giving Rat too much of a free pass (read as: I'll reassess it based on recent actions), but I'm still comfortable with the other cred given.

[Sierra]

Been rereading, not sure what else to add right now apart from noting that Andy makes some reasonable observations in regards to Yoshi, ditto Excal's on Rat. Blah, brain needs to take a rest, will come back in a few hours when hopefully Rat and Tom are active.

[Yoshiken]

Yeesh, I cut my other post short to let other people comment on what's happened, and return to find I'm suddenly one of, if not the top candidate for next lynch.

Looking back at my previous analysis post, a few things have changed... Obviously, we've had some stuff from 3/4 of the quiet guys - still waiting on Rat, which really isn't helping that case at all...
So, to break those down... Excal's contributed more in these last few posts than I think the majority have in the time since I came in. That does help clear the suspicion around him a little, since the majority of that was based around the lack of posting. Of course, it still doesn't help that he's the only unknown left who voted Xanth.
Snowfire, I'm becoming more suspicious of, if only for the low post content in general.

In other words, if we lynch Excal and he flips scum, AndrewRogue will look really evil.

Looking back at this, this has caught my attention... This is implying that the alternative is we lynch Excal, he flips town and Andy's pretty much clear. There's one other alternative I can think of, and that's the possibility of Meeple/Andy/Snow as scum. If that were the case, this argument would be the perfect defence - attack against Excal, flips as town, and then Andy's seemingly home free.

Andy, I feel I should start by arguing the vote against me:

So while Excal is a viable candidate, Yoshi's own logic for that vote also speaks against him. This seems like really sloppy argumentation to me, and makes me rather uncomfortable.

The main reason for this vote was the same reasons I'm giving for suspicions in this post - low post total & content. The votes simply supported that - I understand that the votes will make me look somewhat suspicious, but there's not really much I can do to help that, seeing as I wasn't here for Day1. All I'll ask is that people don't jump to conclusions based on me not being here before.
As for you, I'm still quite suspicious. You've not really given much insight in your latest post - you've said me & Excal look suspicious, and you said Rat's vote on Ryogo was. I'm interested in knowing why you think that's more of a scum move than a town making sure the potential scum falls. (Sure, he was actually town, but that's hindsight for ya.)

Overall, I've got suspicions regarding Andy/Snow/Excal.
Out of these, my main problem is with Andy, mostly because of the Snow quote from earlier in the post. If we do vote Andy and he flips scum, I think it's fairly certain that one of the other two is.


~AndyNinja - Hrm. I've already commented regarding my case against Alex. It seemed logical at the time, but hindsight's a bitch. With regards to my posts, I personally think I'm saying a fair bit, at least presenting my thoughts on each person - we saw the problem with a single-minded chase before, with Tom chasing Xanth.

~Xanth & CidNinjas - Hrm, nothing to comment on here.

[Excal]

Y'know...  I just noticed something.  People keep on noting that Xanth would have been jumped on if he had tried to save himself by hammering Meeple.  Or that anyone else would have been jumped on if they had just hammered Xanth out of nowhere (hell, the fact that I was vocally pro-hammering Xanth after a cop-claim to the contrary is one of the points used as to why I am scummy).  But, I haven't really seen anyone comment on this.

We are not actually in sudden death because I've had a vote on meeple since page 2, shoving him one ahead of Xanth.

Should this, in fact, be a mistake of some kind which can still be compensated for, I would ##Unvote, ##Vote: Xanth due to copclaim.

So, Rat.  Why was your move in that situation to hammer Xanth instead of just unvote?  I mean, your action after the unvote wasn't likely to matter anyways, but we were waiting for some last words from Xanth at the time, and you acted to cut them off.

[Carthrat]

This is short, but I can address a couple things before I need to take off.

Cid - Excal was the next target up from Ryogo because after Alex's 'don't lynch Tom!' cry, I was considering that scum were likely on the Xanth train and with 3/4 people on that already accounted for, he was the next best bet.

Excal - I moved to hammer Xanth mainly because Meeple had a copclaim out and I hadn't seen anything from the guy that made me want to preserve him. Nor did I really think anything he had to say would make lynching him the less practical move.

[Hunter Sopko]

Votecount:
Excal (2): Cid, Yoshi, Delta, Snowfire
Yoshiken (1): Andy
Andy (1): Excal

There are 42 hours left in Day Three.

[Excal]

Alright, Rat.  I can see why you might think there was nothing he could say worth hearing.  But, there was absolutely nothing showing up that would be a threat to a Xanth lynch that wouldn't get that person serious flak the next day.  I mean, the only person who could get away with lynching Meep had already said they wouldn't.  And anyone else would have some very serious explaining to do as to why they lynched the cop claim.

So, again, why did you feel it was so urgent to do it right away?

[EvilTom]

At uni, limited mafia time. For posterity, yep Lenny & Carl, mason buddies. Poor Carl.. I figure I'll be seeing him soon though.

I've been suspicious of Rat all game, but there's been nothing to pin on him because he's said so little. Still not happy with Excal. Eh I don't have time to post now, BBL.

[Sierra]

This is short, but I can address a couple things before I need to take off.

Cid - Excal was the next target up from Ryogo because after Alex's 'don't lynch Tom!' cry, I was considering that scum were likely on the Xanth train and with 3/4 people on that already accounted for, he was the next best bet.

This isn't entirely what I was asking about. The fact that you proclaimed Excal a solid lynch with little previous commentary on the matter was only part of what bothered me. Why stick with Ryogo at that point? You posted the following just a few hours before deadline:

I'm pretty comfortable sticking with Ryogo right now, modkill or not- though Excal would probably be my next bet. It worries me that his only significant post has come on the heels of a threat of getting lynched.

"Modkill or not?" What makes someone who's about to be modkilled a better lynch? I don't get this at all, and it looks mighty odd given that the person who survived yesterday because of Ryogo's lynch just happens to be my main suspect.

[Sierra]

In short, I'm frustrated that Ryogo wasn't even scum in the end, as that was supposed to be the baseline gain from that day. I'm really not as sold on Excal as the rest of the player base seems to be at this point, based primarily on the directions of his arguments from yesterday (that on a quick skim seem to have continued into today)

And it doesn't bother you at all that Excal didn't make such arguments until several players called him out on lurking? Very late in day two? And that the target he eventually settled on was both the safest player to attack (Tom was -2 to hammer when Excal made his omnibus post, which means that even if Tom had been lynched and flipped town, Excal would hardly have been alone in bearing suspicion the next day)? And that Excal's only previous discussion of Tom (here: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?action=post;quote=52670;topic=3003.100;num_replies=190;sesc=f49986f87ac5dd330480b00523bceff4) mentions Tom and Ryogo only in passing? Really, do read the post I linked to here. It looks to me like someone weighing two players who had potential for being mislynches in preparation for joining either train later if it took off. This kind of vacillation is very scummy: comment vaguely on matters, board the train later if it picks up steam.

To me, all of this makes perfect sense for embattled scum realizing he needed to go on the offensive to shake off bad karma accrued from lurking. You can say that pursuing Tom was Excal "writing himself into a corner," but even this was a better option for a scum Excal than continued inaction. Also: after Alex claimed he had role-related proof that Tom was town, Excal went silent for the rest of the day (aside from unvoting Tom in a one-liner post, of course). Didn't defend himself when he picked up votes from Snowfire and Yoshi, just hunkered down and waited out the day. Sure, he's talking more now--but the first thing he said today was that he expected to die yesterday. Which is doubly odd since he only had two votes on him at the time he unvoted Tom and vanished. Was he actually watching the rest of the day and hoping he could ride things out quietly? I think it's a strong possibility, and I don't understand how any of this can be perceived as the actions of a townie.

Again, I'm going to request that you elaborate on what makes you so supportive of Excal. (Yes, I know you said your most recent post was just going to be a cursory response. I just wish to reiterate the request so that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle.)

~

Alright. Ryogo flipping town and various people being more active today has my thoughts rather jumbled. We have several cases on the record which have been demonstrated to be bad (early day 1 Delta, Tom and Alex in general, Ryogo). Going to go back and take a close look at who said what about which of these to try to get my mind in order again.

[Carthrat]

Excal: I suppose I was edgy and felt a need to get what I had out there immediately, and stalling for last words during sudden death does not seem like such a winning plan to me in general precisely because someone can come out of nowhere and fuck everything up.

Cid: It's not that he was getting modkilled that makes him a better lynch, it's that he seemed the most viable lynch at the time. There was little previous commentary on Excal because I was focusing on Ryogo earlier and it was only after I read your and Alex's posts during that day that I was looking at things in such a light. Short of echoing that...

<->

Let's look back at late day one, a straight up Meeple vs. Xanth tie towards the end. Where would scum be in that position, assuming none of those present intended to move from their spot? If Xanth is town, then 'on Xanth' is where it's at. If he's scum... then he's probably vanilla scum and was planning on falling on his sword so the rolecop lives; furthermore, the rest of the scumteam was probably in on that, so you could still expect to see other scum on Xanth, too. I think an outright bus on Meeple is pretty unlikely because he had an actual role, too. The only place I'd expect to see scum on that train would be near the start- certainly not Cid or Delta, who were in position to push other lynches; not Bard because Bard's dead, and that leaves Andy. Maybe. In an unlikely-seeming fashion.

The other possibility is that scum simply weren't there. Which would point at Yoshiken/Strago more than anyone. Snowfire... wasn't on either train, but given that no matter what the circumstances he had easy choice of lynch, I can't see him being scum unless it is, in fact, a Meeple/Snow/Xanth team and he tried to push a last-minute third lynch. Again, possible, but seeming highly unlikely.

Late day 2, Excal vanished after his case on Tom got shot down by alex, and only returned today, claiming he figured he'd die, although there was not, in fact, a swarm of votes all over him at the time of his last post. I kinda want to know why he expected to die, since if he was around towards the end of day 2 and seeing a close pull between himself and Ryogo, why didn't he toss his hat in the ring? He had no vote out, it seems... very odd.

Early today worries me as well because of the quick surge onto Excal, Delta's subsequent 'hey guys quicklynch much?' and the rush of votes away. The response seems outright panicked, and I'm already somewhat suspicious of Yoshiken for day 1 lurkering. Tentatively considering an Excal/Yosh remaining pair.

As for right now, the hardcore d1/2 lurkering and the oddness of the day 1 lynch is pointing me towards Excal for today's lynch.

##Vote: Excal

[EvilTom]

I'm too tired to think coherently (I'm a bit sick), but other than Excal, Rat and Andy top my scum list (no order). Xanth would follow. The rest are pretty safe IMO.

Rat has only said anything when we've pushed him to. Andy hasn't done much more. Excal is only slightly better, but just as bad in terms of content. So yeah, my view on the remaining scum is almost LAL. Which often works!

I pretty much expect to die tonight. Everything looks like a mess to me though, so I'm not much use right now. Tentatively calling for Excal roleclaim time? I'm wondering why Rat is in a rush to put Excal back to -1. And by 'wondering' I mean 'Rat you scummy bastard!'

Blah headache.

[Excal]

Alright, since my dissapearance and lack of caring after my case on Tom fell apart seems to be on people's minds, I'll give you the low down.  For a couple of reasons, sleep was not something I got on Friday night, this was followed by a six hour shift the following morning.  So, when I got back home, I was at around 30 hours sans sleep.  So, I wanted nothing better than to just curl up and get some rest.  However, I was in the game, so I bothered to take a look, and see what I thought so I could give something to the game for after my death and flip.

So, I stayed up, read the thread, thought about who would be the best candidates, and posted as such.  And immeadiatly had it blown out of the water.  Figuring Alex had something up his sleeve, I pulled back, but where was I going to go from there.  The only people with any heat on them were Tom, who I trusted Alex enough not to go after, Ryogo, who was about to get mod-killed, and myself.  I had no clue who else to start on, and more importantly, no real expectation that people would listen, so, I just gave up and got some sleep.

As for the expectation that I wouldn't survive.  A) I had no idea how many votes were on Ryogo.  And, more importantly, only needed one or two to switch in order for me to fry.

Anyways, on to current thoughts.  I refuse to believe that there was more than one scum on Meeple.  This means that Rat and Andy are linked.  Mostly just in a they can't be scumbuddies kind of way though.  If one's scum, the other isn't, but no guarantees if one turns up town.

Also, it does make sense for scum to want Ryogo lynched over me regardless of alignment.  After all, what good is a town modkill to them?  They either save a scumbuddie, or a mislynch for the next day.  Don't think they planned for a quicklynch for all that it almost happened.

Also, note to Tom.  I should only be at -2.  Two people backed off of me, only Rat has put a fresh vote on me since then.  Also, not going to claim just yet.  It shouldn't be a surprising role when I do claim, since it's a bit more dependable than OK as town, or Andy as scum.  But... not quite yet.

[Xanth]

Cid: your link fails for me, apparently due to session ID. I've tried taking off the 'sesc' bit at the end, but that doesn't seem to resolve it. Anyway, it's not so much the emphasis on Tom and Ryogo as it is that he set up a principal whereby if Tom and Ryogo turn up blank, then he's almost completely screwed. That he would weigh quite so much on the basis of there being scum [other than Meeple] on my train without an escape condition for himself reads far more like a townsman who just is as sure as you can be that there was another mafioso on the train (I sure as hell had convinced myself of Ryogo's guilt by the point the flip came) than as scum trying to redirect for a short period of time. Yeah, sure, it's quite possibly better than him just lurking or what have you, but it's still a lot worse than what he could have been doing in the knowledge that that avenue of suspects was going to dry up.

Back later to do what I said I'd do earlier.

[Hunter Sopko]

Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshi, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (1): Andy
Andy (1): Excal

There are 30 hours left in Day Three.

[Xanth]

Right, bought myself a bit more time. Still likely to run over to my next free period, four hours from now.

Anyway, my extended thought process in short was categorised by those under heavy scrutiny from my train, those with rep gained in and around the trains, and then the rest. Oversimplifying a little, that looked like {Tom, Ryogo, Excal} {Cid, Yoshi, Andy, Alex} {Snow, Rat, Delta}.

With everything that's happened, this now looks like {Excal, Yoshi, Andy} {Cid, Rat} {Tom, Snow, Delta}.

The main trouble with this set up is that I'm struggling to tie everything together, at least assuming that there are two scum left (right/wrong to do so?). I have very little issue with everyone outside of the first bracket, but given my unease with backing Excal that primarily leaves Andy and Yoshi, who have just started locking horns.

Out of time already. Back in a few.

##Vote: Yoshiken

For now, for leading to Strago's day one (which I read positively earlier, I know), and for the approach since. Vague, I know. I still need to compare with Andy, but he at least gets a small leg up for the early assault on Meeple.

[Yoshiken]

Hmm, seems I've somehow fallen under the hammer of suspicion. While I can understand that by first-day logic - I know I'd be suspicious considering Strago's silence followed by replacement - I'd still like people to consider at least leaving that vote temporarily, so that we can clarify if there is a better case as opposed to "Well, he's been around less." We've seen how that's screwed us over before, looking at the Ryogo-lynch.

Also, thought came to me earlier - why was Bard the victim on the first day? He wasn't the only player to be posting a lot. Decided to look back at his posts... (For all posts, I've cut out parts referring solely to Meep's actions.)

I cited the last part because I am befuddled why you would be clearing up linguistic and/or argumentative differences between Excal and Xanth. As I feel that you should only protect someone of whose alignment you are certain, and given that townies do not know anyone's alignment but their own (I will not consider masons at this point), I find it odd for you to defend someone else and explain away their behaviour.

Xanth is perfectly capable of doing so himself.

I want to mention as well that SnowFire befuddles me. The way I see it, the post firsts chastises Andrew for chasing lurkers who haven't posted, only to... chase an alleged lurker yourself. It also feels like a little panic-mongering by ascribing the various effects Delta's present behaviour could have while knowing all too well we have no way of telling which one is the relevant one.

Also, voting people for posting only once and then not again strikes me as incredibly silly since... guess what? You've effectively made two posts in this day as well, meaning you fit your own criteria for classic scum lurking behaviour!

Since we are nearing the deadline, I've taken the liberty of examining the other cases which seem most prevalent to get a lynch, namely Xanth and Snowfire.

Snowfire:
I can accept a lynch on Snowfire based on how useless he's been so far. However, inactivity grades lower to me on the MUST LYNCH radar than someone who's confusing and befuddling. Snowfire, I really, really, really cannot say with good conscience that I think you have been any bit productive to Day 1. Please either change this with all rapid haste or I'll shift my undivided lynching attention to you.

Xanth:
Please stop referring to previous games and whatnot. It is not relevant to this game, and arguments like "OH BUT LAST GAME" just don't work for me. If you want to get lynched today, by all means continue with it. Also stop using sarcasm. "I like how people jump on blah blah lazy bastard blah blah key evidence". Well shit, it's Day 1 and you're constantly excusing yourself, what are you thinking? Ridiculing people with sarcasm because they find an act of yours suspicious doesn't sit well with me. For all that, I find it pretty ridonculous as well that we need so many updates on your sparse schedule; others post less than you do and they don't keep excusing themselves!

At this point,
Meeple > Xanth > Snowfire on my "suspect of scum" list. Other candidates aren't listed as it isn't pertinent right now, but I do feel Delta's being his usual confusing self. The others haven't left a strong enough impact on me for me to pursue something actively. I'm not interested in throwing around minor suspicions so strongly on Day 1, I'll save that for after the flip and Day 2.

I'm around, thrown off my momentum by this announcement. Want to hear Xanth if possible.

I do not understand why SnowFire is desperate to post for the end of today. I'll withhold further opinions on it until the post or something, I don't know.

OK. I'll state now that I'm not 100% certain if this means much, but, as Cid stated earlier, there's a good chance the mafia in this game aren't entirely sure of what they're doing, based around the fact that there was a Day1 lynch and then the Limited Mason was killed. Which led me to wonder why Bard was killed.
Looking over those posts, I'm very tempted to comment on how suspicious Snow seems, for obvious reasons. Main problems here are Bard's point in that final post, as well as the fact that only two people seemed to look at Snow in great detail - Bard & Alex.
Only others I'm inclined to wonder about are Delta & Xanth, as those are mentioned in the post where he said "I'll save that for after the flip and Day 2." Can't help but feel that this post was somewhat influential in his selection as target.

My suspicions on Andy & Excal still remain as they were - current idea is Snow > Andy > Excal, but those three are pretty damn close in my books at the moment.

tl;dr - Snow seems suspicious because both Bard & Alex were saying he was scummy before getting killed.

[Xanth]

Right, I've skived off early to gain extra time here. Full post to immediately follow this, but quickly:

Yoshi: yeah, sorry for dropping a vote without expanding on it properly, but we're nearly halfway through day three and I hadn't got anything solid down, so I didn't want that on the table any later than that.

It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere. Bardiche's lynch didn't even make me blink, as he'd played a really good town game in the first day (and I'm pretty sure at least a few of us even comment on it) (although wow, I guess I skimmed over the part where he was quite so harsh on me when it happened), so it's motive enough for anyone as scum. Likewise with Alex, who had to reveal himself as some sort of useful town power.


Day one sudden death stuff is still enough for me to trust Snow quite a lot.