Author Topic: Simpsons Mafia GAME OVER - TOWN WIN  (Read 39917 times)

Xanth

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Master Pan Stew
« Reply #200 on: March 09, 2009, 07:37:40 PM »
Right, the reason I'm a little confused as to where my vote is, it's because I've arrived at {Excal, Andy, Yoshi} by a process of elimination rather than by approaching them head on. Tom, Snow and Delta are all but free in my eyes as things stand, and Cid likewise still has a lot of major credit for the timing and so forth on the Meeple case.

Other than my initial set, that leaves Rat. I have to admit on one hand that I'm surprised at just how little he's posted, but on the other hand  practically everything I do find from him reads positively. His main push on day one was for Meeple, and otherwise defended me over Meeple and Snow. The 'vote Ryogo - modkill or not' comment from day two is easily the most worrying comment, especially given that his second choice (Excal) was so available. As much as Ryogo deserved death at that point, it's still a horrible waste of a lynch (my own vote only ending on Ryogo because Tom needed saving and I really didn't/don't buy the whole Excal thing, and even then my vote should probably have gone elsewhere anyway).

That said, I find myself agreeing with him more than anyone else in today's discussion. Cancelling out the same set for approximately the same line of logic (I'm a little concerned that he doesn't reach a conclusion on me - it's a little odd that I'm left out other than during 'what ifs' for both sides), again it feels too deep for scum padding for later.

I'm actually altogether less sure of myself on him than I was before I started that piece (the Meeple vote is too early to gain the same cred as the others), but I'm far more willing to return to him later than now when it feels like he's on the 'right' tracks as things stand.

As I'm waving a 'I want to believe' flag at Excal, that leaves Andy and Yoshiken, who seem like an unlikely pair given the former's assault on the latter, but I'm most confident that there's scum to find between them (so yes, I'm expecting some part of my set up to be wrong, but there seems to be no point in second-guessing that until more of the top falls out, especially when it could yet be right).


The day one case is fairly simple - Andy edges out Yoshi (then Strago) [in a positive way] by the count of an early Meeple vote over no presence or vote at all, which I had previously granted clemency over. Andrew's early strike for voting for the non-present Delta is wiped by the pressure and continued pressure on Meeple, only then marred a little bit by disappearing during sudden death (having been present just before). This compares to Strago's... one post of content whatsoever, which is admittedly anti-Meeple, but in retrospect could be a place holder for later bussing (but does leave little recourse otherwise).

Day two and onwards is messier, as Andy posts less and doesn't address many players. Tom was yesterday's catch of the day, and Yoshi today, which is personally awkward given my own votes. And in all fairness, day three is less of a one track than the day before. Yoshi on the other hand is a lot more present, which flickers from generic to specific, but whilst the level of content ought to be a plus, I keep on coming to flawed logic. Practically everything he had down on Alex was wrong, and arguments like 'townExcal => scumAlex and scumTom' (after Alex saved Tom) are dangerous as hell.

And now going into day three there's some sort of triple threat match going on with Excal, which is a bugger for working out how to pull the townie(s) out of it. Yoshi looks worst out of it for what looks like a bandwagon pull (much needed bus cred if Excal is scum, and a quick-tracked day otherwise), but did at least allude to jumping on to Excal's case the previous day. Then again, that was under bad rationale, and the 'hey guys I've just seen Excal is the only unknown Xanth vote' is hardly new to convince.


I'm less than content with Andy slowly falling off the face of the earth (likewise Rat, actually), but he has the early credit to push him up a bit, whereas Strago/Yoshi leave very little positive to work with.

##This is where my vote for Yoshiken would go if it wasn't already down.


Off to make dinner for six. Will be busy this evening, but will probably be able to chip in a little bit.

Yoshiken

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #201 on: March 09, 2009, 08:18:48 PM »
OK, just to clarify one thing that a few people seem to have picked up on...
Where it was said "If townExcal, then I'd assume scumAlex and (most probably) scumTom", that was at that time and also not something I stated for certain (hence the "I'd assume"). Obviously, since then, we've had other information to tell us that Tom & Alex are/were clearly town, and I'm still somewhat suspicious of Excal for the reasons I was assuming this at the time.
I'll admit that it was probably a mistake to announce it outright like that, as though it was a certainty in my mind, but I can guarantee it most definitely wasn't.

Oh, and seeing as I didn't in my previous post...
##Vote: Snowfire.
It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere.
But surely that logic goes in circles too. I mean, maybe scum think you won't look at the lynch targets and... you can see where this is going.

Oh, as it happens, Xanth... Why do you feel that Snow's Day1SD actions clear him? Or, more, why is it that you trust that Snow saying "Can we vote someone else?" means he's automatically town? Seems like that could have been WIFOM from him...

Xanth

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« Reply #202 on: March 09, 2009, 09:14:44 PM »
Yoshi: re: Snow: I know that the lynch on day one was between town and scum, and the scum had the credibility to stay in over the townsman. If Snow was scum, he really, really should have been on me over Meeple. Cop claim that I'd submitted to was absolutely golden.

Sierra

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #203 on: March 09, 2009, 09:15:30 PM »
Also, it does make sense for scum to want Ryogo lynched over me regardless of alignment.  After all, what good is a town modkill to them?  They either save a scumbuddie, or a mislynch for the next day.  Don't think they planned for a quicklynch for all that it almost happened.

Town dying is always in scum's best interest. I don't think this is disputable. I don't see how Ryogo's lynch would be preferable to scum than yours if both of you were town--if we'd lynched you yesterday instead of Ryogo, and you'd turned up town, then scum would've got two kills yesterday instead of one. I'm not finding the logic in this statement, Excal.

Excal

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #204 on: March 09, 2009, 09:22:22 PM »
Because getting one extra out of turn town kill only helps them as insurance against bulletproof/doc.  Otherwise, it actually hurts them.  They want an odd number of people going into lylo because it's more chance for town to screw up.  They also want to spend as many days as possible on mislynches.

Since Ryogo dropping doesn't bring us one day closer to lylo, and under this assumption I'm an extra day of mislynching, it is a good deal for them, Cid.

Sierra

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Re: Practical Compost Treacle
« Reply #205 on: March 09, 2009, 09:27:16 PM »
Cid: your link fails for me, apparently due to session ID. I've tried taking off the 'sesc' bit at the end, but that doesn't seem to resolve it. Anyway, it's not so much the emphasis on Tom and Ryogo as it is that he set up a principal whereby if Tom and Ryogo turn up blank, then he's almost completely screwed. That he would weigh quite so much on the basis of there being scum [other than Meeple] on my train without an escape condition for himself reads far more like a townsman who just is as sure as you can be that there was another mafioso on the train (I sure as hell had convinced myself of Ryogo's guilt by the point the flip came) than as scum trying to redirect for a short period of time. Yeah, sure, it's quite possibly better than him just lurking or what have you, but it's still a lot worse than what he could have been doing in the knowledge that that avenue of suspects was going to dry up.

Well, you did say I wouldn't agree with your reasons, but thanks for providing them at least. All I can really do is reiterate that scum are not infallible. It bothers me how often you insist that someone not necessarily doing what would've been best for scum in a given situation automatically means that they're town. Town or scum, we don't always make the best choices when we have to think fast. Hindsight makes it's easy to look back and say "It would've been better for player X to do this if they were alignment Y," but player X may not have had the luxury of time for analysis when he made these decisions. We've been over all this before, though.

It does seem like you're making a concerted effort to present Excal's conduct in the best possible light while overlooking his scummier behavior. It's weirding me out, really. I don't understand the kind of blind faith I've been seeing from some people in this game.

Sierra

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #206 on: March 09, 2009, 09:33:52 PM »
Excal: I'm not really buying it. A town kill is a town kill. Why would scum want an extra day of mislynching when you could've died yesterday? The longer a game goes on, the more opportunity we have to find scum. It's in their interest to eliminate as many townies as they can as quickly as possible. Saying that they'd want to keep someone around specifically to be a mislynch when they could've killed this person earlier, just...does not compute.

Sierra

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Re: Monopole Tagline Gandhi
« Reply #207 on: March 09, 2009, 09:43:33 PM »
It's usually somewhat frowned upon to think about the rationale behind lynch targets, as you can go round in circles trying to out-think the scum and get nowhere. Bardiche's lynch didn't even make me blink, as he'd played a really good town game in the first day (and I'm pretty sure at least a few of us even comment on it) (although wow, I guess I skimmed over the part where he was quite so harsh on me when it happened), so it's motive enough for anyone as scum. Likewise with Alex, who had to reveal himself as some sort of useful town power.

I guess you meant nightkill there, instead of lynch? Interesting Freudian slip. Anyway, seconding this for Yoshi. Bard was a pretty obvious target for scum night 1 just because he came out hard against Meeple early on and put in a lot of effort to get Meeple's lynch through. Meeple flipping scum would have netted Bard massive townie cred had Bard lived through the night. If scum don't have any idea who the town power roles are, killing someone the other townies think they can trust is usually their best option.

Excal

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #208 on: March 09, 2009, 09:44:22 PM »
Because if you bothered to read what I said, you'd have noticed that one or two townies down, they're still hitting lylo on the same day.  Just with one less red herring for town to follow on the way there, and less people to confuse town with when they do hit lylo.

Ending the game faster, I agree with you on.  But blowing all of the good mislynch candidates in one shot when they can drag that out?  That's bad scum play, Cid.

Sierra

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #209 on: March 09, 2009, 09:57:31 PM »
tl;dr - Snow seems suspicious because both Bard & Alex were saying he was scummy before getting killed.

You know, this quote really stands out to me. The fact that a player has died and flipped town means that their arguments can safely be taken on good faith (I.E., they were genuinely making an attempt to scumhunt, weren't trying to deliberately mislead people, etc.) but that does not mean that everything that they said was right. Any time you go back and reread a dead townie's posts, keep in mind that they were working in the dark on their own just like any other townie (well, okay, Alex could talk to Tom, but had no special insight gained from investigative roles). Being dead does not mean they had access to privilieged information. I can't decide whether you just didn't think through, or simply found it convenient to invoke dead townies to help your case. I also find it curious that you cite Alex's day 1 suspicions of Snowfire as a reason to lynch him while not acknowledging that on day 2 Alex thought Snowfire effectively cleared based on the sudden death events.

~

Excal: I suppose I can see your point, but it's only relevant if you are actually town. As I believe I've made apparent, the evidence weighs against that possibility.

Yoshiken

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #210 on: March 09, 2009, 10:16:53 PM »
Oh, I know it doesn't necessarily mean they're right! That's why I neglected to mention (or even consider) Ryogo in this - I was looking solely at those who'd been nightkilled, not lynched.

Hrm. I'm sure I had something from Alex Day2, but... apparently not. Ignore that part then, I guess.
Although, my suspicions still stand regarding Snow not being clear from Day1, for this reasoning:
If Meeple+Snowfire were scum, Snow would have no reason to refrain from hammering Xanth in sudden death, and would have had every reason earlier to get a vote down somewhere and try to roll with a train that wasn't Meeple.  OR be on or "mistakenly" hammer Meeple for town cred.  What he did do strikes me as the least likely course of action if he were Meeple's scum buddy.  Unless we're dealing with the least coordinated scum team ever...
Now this is interesting. Let's see... Looking over Snow's posts from Pages 2 & 3, there is not even a single mention of the Meeple/Xanth situation. So, if he were scum and then suddenly hammers Xanth, wouldn't that just raise suspicion? But then, if he hammers Meeple, he risks taking out an ally when there's a chance of townXanth going. If scumXanth, we aren't certain if Xanth has a role, which could be more helpful for scum. So, overall, seems like suspicion on Snow is still possible by this logic...

Just another insight into my way of thinking (and criticise it as you will, this is just how my mind works...), I'm still thinking the most probable town candidates are the people who've been most active throughout their time here, simply because they're staying in the spotlight & giving people more of a chance to read into their thinking. Now, I know me & Tom are town, and the other "most active" is, without a doubt, Cid.
From there, slightly less consistent in activity, we have Excal, Snow, Delta & Xanth, and then, the least active are seemingly Andy & Rat.
Add into that my previous arguments, and... well, back where I started, with Rat added in (who, I'll admit, I completely forgot about >.>) - Snow > Andy > Excal/Rat.

Excal

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #211 on: March 09, 2009, 10:25:00 PM »
I would like to toss out a warning that more activity does not always mean townier.  I know Alex has definatly had a few games where he's been the post leader and he turned out to be scum.  Cid is another one of those people who can pull that trick off, and the main thing keeping me from wondering too much about that is that he did choose to hammer Meeple.  And I'm trying not to WIFOM too much about that.

AndrewRogue

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #212 on: March 09, 2009, 10:39:40 PM »
Yoshi's logic is... getting stretched here and delving straight into severe WIFOM. Generally speaking? Scum nightkill logic is weak, since it inevitably leads you in circles.

Yes, Bard and Alex could have died because they were getting close to Snow. But why would Snow do that since it would attract obvious attention? Because no one would suspect him because he's attracting such obvious attention! But wouldn't people logically suspect that, since it is so patently obvious? So, the logical deduction would be that he wouldn't kill them because its so obvious that he'd do it because it would be too obvious if he did! And this is setting aside the potential of someone else obviously framing by killing off individuals. Generally speaking, there are a lot of reasons that nightkills happen (confirmed townies, potential power roles, kills that have zero tracability, framing kills, etc). There are a ton of different logics that go into it and, given the relative isolation of NKs, it is very difficult, at best, to make any sort of connection.

As it stands, Yoshi is not really doing anything to make me feel more comfortable here, and is definitely surging ahead of other candidates to me at the moment.

Ninja'd: Idly, Yoshi. How are you measuring activity, here?

Yoshiken

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #213 on: March 09, 2009, 10:48:40 PM »
Ninja'd: Idly, Yoshi. How are you measuring activity, here?

Partially by consistent & frequent posting - hence Cid being the most clear (not entirely clear, ofc, 'cause of exactly what Excal said), as he's been consistently posting over all 3 days.
However, most of it's the depth within the posts. Snow, Delta, Xanth and Excal haven't been too consistent in their times, but when they do post, they post a lot with insight into every (or at least most) player(s).

Hunter Sopko

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #214 on: March 10, 2009, 01:06:03 AM »
Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (2): Andy, Xanth
Andy (1): Excal
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken

There are 17 hours left in Day Three.

SnowFire

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #215 on: March 10, 2009, 02:49:58 AM »
Interesting developments today I see.  Responses first:

Excal: Snowfire - Is... odd.  He's screwed up a lot, but I'm not sure if he's screwed up in any way that I would call scummy.

Just want to get on the record that I don't believe I've "screwed up" nearly as much as seemingly everyone else thinks.  Scheduling difficulties Day 1 and some naivety about the rules, yes, but I think that I've been pretty forthright on what was going on there.

Yoshiken: Re your point on Andy...  no, that would be a bad reading of what I said.  ScumExcal ->? ScumAndy to some extent, yes, but Andy is not off the hook by any means if townExcal...  as should be clear from his position on my chart, next to Carthrat and you as "top 3 potentially scummiest after Excal."  And the four of you are on a different tier from Delta, who's on a different tier from everyone else.  Speaking of Andy...

AndrewRogue: First, I obviously agree with your points about Yoshi re: my suspicousness.  Though, checking...  you were harshly anti-Xanth on Day1 even if you didn't vote for him, and still kept up the flamethrower in your post on Day2 (though not really pursuing it either time).  While it's possible I missed it, you haven't said peep on him on Day3.  What are your current thoughts on Xanth?

Yoshiken, again: Seems like others have already addressed the scum nightkills issue.  Just want to note again that Sir Alex was supportive of me on Day2 anyway.

--

General thoughts.

Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1).  I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue.  Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple.  This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent.  Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off.  Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1.  The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.

So...  if we're hunting that second scum, then I'm pretty happy with either of our major lynch targets in Yoshi or Excal.  StragoYoshi pseudo-qualifies for suspicion on Day1 - Strago didn't return in time to get a vote down on Day1, so it's possible that out-of-game concerns kept him from saving Meeple.  Excal has made some sensible points today, but I'm really not certain that it's enough to clear him, and it dovetails all too nicely into the "frantically throw attention elsewhere" theory.  And Excal being the second scum trivially satisfies the "trying to save Meeple" condition.

Andy, Carthrat, and to a lesser degree Delta and El Cid qualify as potential "first scum" in Scenario B, but I think that can wait for later.  One of Excal/Yoshi being the second scum makes a ton of sense and seem the much stronger candidates to pursue to me.  Plus, if Scenario A is true, then we're sure to hit scum.

It's certainly possible that both scum were on the Meeple train or that Xanth was scum or the like, but I don't think it's likely.

I'd vote but it'd go to Excal at the moment and that'd put him back at -1, so will check back in the morning.

SnowFire

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #216 on: March 10, 2009, 03:05:26 AM »
On second thought, maybe I take back the part about not making mistakes.  Re-checking the archives, I see that Andy has been more...  erratic about Xanth.  I remembered that he attacked Meeple, myself, and Xanth in one post, and that he was pretty vicious against all of us, but looking at the post again ( http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52562#msg52562 ) I see that the flames were more against me and Meeple.  Oops.  His post on Day2 was fairly anti-Xanth, though (and in to me an unjustified way - http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3003.msg52676#msg52676 ), so the question stands anyway.  Do you still suspect Xanth as per your Day2 post?

Carthrat

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #217 on: March 10, 2009, 06:34:09 AM »
Scum would be happy enough to let an extra townie die.

What I don't get with Excal is why he basically threw up his hands without even dropping a vote and considering saving himself. It.. isn't really a town/scum thing, I'll grant. It's more a 'wtf' moment no matter what side he's on.

I'm not sure at all about the case on Andy. His attack on Meeple felt too vicious, and he kept it going. It's very hard to fault him for his vote on day 2, as well.

Quote from: Snowfire
I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue.

Well. I think it's very unlikely that Xanth is scum because a pair of scumtrains is, naturally, very unlikely. But to disregard him just because it doesn't fit neatly into your theory? Because that's really how that reads.

wrt to Yoshiken, I've noted over the game that he has a very simplistic attitude; forex, voting Alex 'because you defended Meeple day 1' in day 2. Additionally, when voting Excal today, he... copy-pasted a votecount, tagged Excal, but never really explained why, instead expecting the rationale to be self-evident via votes.  The occasional list'o'names he dispenses with is never a good sign to me, since I associate that style of posting with padding. It's amusing how he was willing to listen to what others had to say about Excal despite having not said much himself at the start of this day rather than quicklynch, too.

There's also the matter that later today, he indicated that since Excal had posted somewhat, most of his suspicion around him had gone. But he did refer to an apparently self-evident case via the early votecount, which was never referenced again. It is clear lurking was not the only factor, here. The more I read this, the more it looks like he never presented a case on the guy today.

I'd like him to confirm/deny that and present why Excal ranks as one of the scummiest guys around for him.
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Sierra

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #218 on: March 10, 2009, 07:35:33 AM »
Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1).  I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue.  Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple.  This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent.  Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off.  Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1.  The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.

Scenario B is something I've been considering, especially with regard to Andy. I've been reviewing the topic, and his contributions are sparse. Rarely engages in a real dialogue with others, often makes points that have been originated by others. A few odd details stand out:

-Recall that Andy initially made the same bad call that Meeple did: lazily voting for a player who wasn't actually in the game. If Andy is scum then it makes sense to want to distance himself from this position once Meeple attracts criticism for it. Hence, the vote for Meeple. Andy's was only the second vote on him, so he could do this to shore up his own reputation without necessarily worrying about condemning a comrade--it was early in the game, other people were sitting at the same amount of votes at that time, etc.

-Meeple himself made an effort to respond to his accusers in turn...but he never acknowledged Andy. It's easy for scum to forget to respond in-topic to people that they can talk to outside of it.

-Andy was gone for a long time between dropping his vote on Meeple and returning just in time to post before sudden death. See "Scenario B" up above? This is where that comes into play. By the time Andy returns to the game, at the end of the game-day, Meeple has accrued massive bad karma and is tied for the day's lynch (or not, because of Rat's vote, but we didn't know that at the time). Vacillating at that point in time would've been extremely risky. It's safer for Andy to leave his vote where it is and accept townie cred for helping with the lynch if Meeple does go down.

-His day two case against Tom...well, rereading it (page five, about a third of the way down), Andy criticizes the way Tom's playing the game but stops short of actually calling him scum. He modifies his tone when called on this shortly thereafter, but this still seems weird to me. Also note that these are Andy's only posts on day two.

-Excal's now named Andy as his main suspect. Yet Andy himself hasn't commented on this, not even acknowledged it. And Andy has posted a couple times since Excal's vote. I find this curious. Something to revisit tomorrow if we lynch Excal and he flips scum (something I fully expect to happen).

~

Otherwise:

-Find myself agreeing with recent speculation (mostly Snowfire/Rat's) about Yoshi. Possible suspect if I'm wrong about Andy and/or Excal.

-Toooooom. Where are you, man. Would like to hear more from you before the day is done.

EvilTom

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #219 on: March 10, 2009, 08:03:42 AM »
Sorry, I've been lurking. Ie. reading the thread intently, but being unable to find anything useful to say.
Rat's case against Snow is interesting. I haven't really been looking at Snow or Yoshi as much as I should have. I'm not really convined though.

I've been suspicious of Excal since Alex mentioned it in PM, and he shot to -1 pretty damn quick.. which makes me think either overzealous town or scumbus, which would be Yoshi or Snow. If I were to pick someone scummy from that, it would be Snow... hmm...
My ideas for scumteams probably rate as meeple/andrew/rat or  meeple/snow/excal. But I can't really come up with any substantial ideas why. Just idle musings.

Cid - yeah those were my problems with Andy too. Obviously I couldn't do anything about it without getting sunk for OMGUS at the time though.
I'm actually really tempted to vote Andrew now. Ironic I'd be siding with Excal.

Excal... I was all for lynching him, especially after yesterday. But it feels like that avenue is already spent (aside from flip); Andrew has been scummier lately. Who's excited about an Andrew lynch?

##Vote Andy I'll just leave this here. Back after dinner to flail around some more.
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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #220 on: March 10, 2009, 08:24:47 AM »
Cid - yeah those were my problems with Andy too. Obviously I couldn't do anything about it without getting sunk for OMGUS at the time though.
I'm actually really tempted to vote Andrew now. Ironic I'd be siding with Excal.

Excal... I was all for lynching him, especially after yesterday. But it feels like that avenue is already spent (aside from flip); Andrew has been scummier lately. Who's excited about an Andrew lynch?

Honestly, I'd prefer to finish Excal today. His attack on Andy feels like a last-ditch stab at misdirection. Hence why I'd rather go with Excal today and worry about Andy tomorrow. So yeah, my vote stays where it is. Crashing out for the night but should be back before deadline.

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #221 on: March 10, 2009, 09:02:45 AM »
Alright...  There hasn't been a whole lot today that's done much except to cement my opinion that scums among Andy/Yoshi/Rat.  And I'm now heavily leaning towards the first two.

Cid has...  oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation.  Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me.  Either case, he's either scum with a lot of dressing on one mislynch, or he's town that's about to be horribly wrong.  Either way, if it's me that goes down today, I am looking forward to his reaction tomorrow.  It should be a hoot.

Xanth, on the other hand, I now feel fairly certain is town.  His arguments in his own favour check.  Speaking out when he did just doesn't make any sense unless they were expecting to call attention to Rat's bad vote after Xanth was hammered, but before he was flipped.  And even then, it'd really raise the question of why not mention that before, unless they tied him in with scum buddy #3.  So, yeah.  I can't see any way the end of Day 1 implicates Xanth.

Finally, just as a heads up.  If I'm awake before end of day tomorrow, my vote will be going to whichever of Andy/Yoshi that's most likely to keep me alive.  I may have given up at the end of Day 2, but this time I'm going to do what I can to stay alive.

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #222 on: March 10, 2009, 09:03:53 AM »
Tom, since you seem to be around, any reason why Snow over Yoshi for the scum pairings?

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #223 on: March 10, 2009, 11:06:56 AM »
Cid has...  oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation.  Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me. 
Cid is solid town in my books. If you're town, you shouldn't be wasting time telling us how bad he's going to look when you flip. Scum vibes here.

Tom, since you seem to be around, any reason why Snow over Yoshi for the scum pairings?
I've agreed with a lot of the points on Snow. Especially the stuff in Rat's recent post. Yoshi hasn't been doing huge amounts of good, but he hasn't been doing bad. I see Yoshi as neutral, so I left him out of my scum-pairing ideas.

Quote
Honestly, I'd prefer to finish Excal today. His attack on Andy feels like a last-ditch stab at misdirection. Hence why I'd rather go with Excal today and worry about Andy tomorrow.
No real problem with that from me. I'll support it.

Not a lot of time left in the day, so I think it's just about time for Excal roleclaim?

Sorry I haven't been too useful today, I feel like I'll be able to do more tomorrow when there's more information. Of course I'll probably be deeeeeeead.

I guess Xanth is probably sleeping or something, but I'd like to hear more from him; specifically - Excal or Andy, or someone else.
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EvilTom

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Re: Simpsons Mafia DAY THREE
« Reply #224 on: March 10, 2009, 11:07:37 AM »
specifically on*
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