Right, the reason I'm a little confused as to where my vote is, it's because I've arrived at {Excal, Andy, Yoshi} by a process of elimination rather than by approaching them head on. Tom, Snow and Delta are all but free in my eyes as things stand, and Cid likewise still has a lot of major credit for the timing and so forth on the Meeple case.
Other than my initial set, that leaves Rat. I have to admit on one hand that I'm surprised at just how little he's posted, but on the other hand practically everything I do find from him reads positively. His main push on day one was for Meeple, and otherwise defended me over Meeple and Snow. The 'vote Ryogo - modkill or not' comment from day two is easily the most worrying comment, especially given that his second choice (Excal) was so available. As much as Ryogo deserved death at that point, it's still a horrible waste of a lynch (my own vote only ending on Ryogo because Tom needed saving and I really didn't/don't buy the whole Excal thing, and even then my vote should probably have gone elsewhere anyway).
That said, I find myself agreeing with him more than anyone else in today's discussion. Cancelling out the same set for approximately the same line of logic (I'm a little concerned that he doesn't reach a conclusion on me - it's a little odd that I'm left out other than during 'what ifs' for both sides), again it feels too deep for scum padding for later.
I'm actually altogether less sure of myself on him than I was before I started that piece (the Meeple vote is too early to gain the same cred as the others), but I'm far more willing to return to him later than now when it feels like he's on the 'right' tracks as things stand.
As I'm waving a 'I want to believe' flag at Excal, that leaves Andy and Yoshiken, who seem like an unlikely pair given the former's assault on the latter, but I'm most confident that there's scum to find between them (so yes, I'm expecting some part of my set up to be wrong, but there seems to be no point in second-guessing that until more of the top falls out, especially when it could yet be right).
The day one case is fairly simple - Andy edges out Yoshi (then Strago) [in a positive way] by the count of an early Meeple vote over no presence or vote at all, which I had previously granted clemency over. Andrew's early strike for voting for the non-present Delta is wiped by the pressure and continued pressure on Meeple, only then marred a little bit by disappearing during sudden death (having been present just before). This compares to Strago's... one post of content whatsoever, which is admittedly anti-Meeple, but in retrospect could be a place holder for later bussing (but does leave little recourse otherwise).
Day two and onwards is messier, as Andy posts less and doesn't address many players. Tom was yesterday's catch of the day, and Yoshi today, which is personally awkward given my own votes. And in all fairness, day three is less of a one track than the day before. Yoshi on the other hand is a lot more present, which flickers from generic to specific, but whilst the level of content ought to be a plus, I keep on coming to flawed logic. Practically everything he had down on Alex was wrong, and arguments like 'townExcal => scumAlex and scumTom' (after Alex saved Tom) are dangerous as hell.
And now going into day three there's some sort of triple threat match going on with Excal, which is a bugger for working out how to pull the townie(s) out of it. Yoshi looks worst out of it for what looks like a bandwagon pull (much needed bus cred if Excal is scum, and a quick-tracked day otherwise), but did at least allude to jumping on to Excal's case the previous day. Then again, that was under bad rationale, and the 'hey guys I've just seen Excal is the only unknown Xanth vote' is hardly new to convince.
I'm less than content with Andy slowly falling off the face of the earth (likewise Rat, actually), but he has the early credit to push him up a bit, whereas Strago/Yoshi leave very little positive to work with.
##This is where my vote for Yoshiken would go if it wasn't already down.
Off to make dinner for six. Will be busy this evening, but will probably be able to chip in a little bit.