Simpsons Mafia GAME OVER - TOWN WIN

[Excal]

Tom, I'm less trying to make Cid look bad then I am trying to get my final thoughts across.

Anyways, yeah, doubt I'm gonna be awake before day ends, so let's get the final bit of accounting done.

I still think Andy is our best bet.  He's been lurking hard today, specifically, not posting despite being active on the forums.  And what he has accomplished early on hasn't done much to really help.

Yoshi, I'm more confident in his scummishness after his lack of reasoning to vote me, especially in the early day rush that could have gotten rid of our conversation time.  So, he's a close second to Andy.

Rat, no credit given by me for his Meeple vote.  He's given precious little aside from that, and he stayed on Ryogo for no apparent reason.  That said, I do find it odd that the two people I tagged as likliest of those on Meep to be scum have both harrassed Yoshi, so not sure what to make of that.

Snowfire is here mostly to cover my bases, still not sure what to make of him.

Cid is no longer guaranteed town in my mind.  Mostly because of the fact that voting Meeple on Day 1 has become more important than almost anything besides Alex's Tomclaim.  Not sure how else I can really put it, besides that.  So, yeah.  Don't write Cid off, but anything else I've got is likely more biased than I'd like.

Delta...  honestly, I can't see him as skilled at being in on a grand ol' bus like the rest.  But, yeah.  Generic could be scum warning goes here.

Xanth and Tom are town.  Tom's vouched for, and Xanth just doesn't make any sense.

And...  meh.  Nothing else to say, so...

I am Milhouse Van Houten, and as always, I am Vanilla Town.  I've got nothing else to give you, so I'm gonna swap my vote, and call it a night.

##Unvote: Andy, ##Vote: Yoshi

[EvilTom]

Fair enough.

Hm, now Excal is on 3, Yoshi is on 3.
My vote on Andy is no longer useful; ##Unvote Andy

I want to re-read Yoshi before I go further.

[Excal]

Sigh...  One last thing clawing in my head that needs out.

Tom.  Doubt Cid.  Always keep that doubt alive, and never assume he's town without anything as strong as your endorsement or Xanth's clusterfuck.

If he's scum, then he traded a rolecop for the ability to lead town by the nose, and that's one hell of a sweet trade for him.  And if you don't doubt him, then he will use you and let you win the game for him.

And if he's town, then congrats.  You're making him a high profile figure who not only might be able to sniff them out, but also will never, ever, be lynched before they are.  And people like that tend not to wake up.

So keep that doubt alive.  It'll save him if that's in your favour, and it'll save you if it isn't.

[Hunter Sopko]

Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (3): Andy, Xanth, Excal
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken

There are 6 hours left in Day Three.

[Sierra]

Cid has...  oddly enough, dropped a lot in my estimation.  Though, I don't know how much of that is due to his two day long pursuit of me.  Either case, he's either scum with a lot of dressing on one mislynch, or he's town that's about to be horribly wrong.  Either way, if it's me that goes down today, I am looking forward to his reaction tomorrow.  It should be a hoot.

I assure you that the first thing to cross my mind in this situation will be "Why did Excal barely talk for two days if he was town?" I don't think anything in my case against you is unwarranted.

Tom.  Doubt Cid.  Always keep that doubt alive, and never assume he's town without anything as strong as your endorsement or Xanth's clusterfuck.

If he's scum, then he traded a rolecop for the ability to lead town by the nose, and that's one hell of a sweet trade for him.  And if you don't doubt him, then he will use you and let you win the game for him.

And if he's town, then congrats.  You're making him a high profile figure who not only might be able to sniff them out, but also will never, ever, be lynched before they are.  And people like that tend not to wake up.

Am I reading the last sentence correctly by interpreting it as "Cid will be too full of himself to change his mind or just generally be useful?" I don't really see how else to take it. I'd like to think that this is already inaccurate since I'm no longer pursuing Xanth.

[SnowFire]

Carthrat: Written off?  No.  But I've addressed the issue of Xanth's likely towniness elsewhere a bunch, so I didn't feel the need to rehash it in that post.

As for votes, er...  crud.  I was expecting to just come here and punch Excal's ticket, but his latest posts really do have a townier read than his earlier actions.  And I suppose the Strago/Yoshi theory behind the Day1 shenanigans is about as solid.  Trying not to be biased due to Yoshi's advocacy against me, but going somewhat on gut here...

## VOTE Yoshiken

I'd still be happy with a lynch of either one.

[Sierra]

Snowfire: Specify what about Excal's recent posts give a townie read? With examples, if possible. I would also like an explanation of how this overrides his extremely low presence the first two days and an apparent willingness to let himself get killed day two.

[Excal]

Meh, didn't have anything to say for Day 1, early bit of Day 2, either wasn't here or wasn't awake for the rest of day 2, and I already explained why I didn't give much of a damn at the end of Day 2.  But I'll stick it up again.  Namely, I was too tired to come up with anything, and burnt out from the fact that I had just put a decent chunk of effort into a post which turned out to be utterly useless.  Besides, you say gave up on Day 2 like it's a scummy thing, when Rat more accurately expresses it as a WTF thing, since Scum shouldn't do that either.

Finally, yeah.  I suspect a lot of my issue with you has to do with the fact that a lot of your posts regarding me (and almost all of them are) involve something along the lines of "I could be wrong, except I'm totally not" which...  yeah.  Isn't really an attitude that endears you to me, especially when you totally are.  But hey, I'm not expecting you to take my word for it.

[Sierra]

Finally, yeah.  I suspect a lot of my issue with you has to do with the fact that a lot of your posts regarding me (and almost all of them are) involve something along the lines of "I could be wrong, except I'm totally not" which...  yeah.  Isn't really an attitude that endears you to me, especially when you totally are.  But hey, I'm not expecting you to take my word for it.

Examples, please. I believe I've been quite straightforward in regards to suspecting you.

[EvilTom]

Re-read of entire thread gave me no great revelations.

Since Yoshi is tied for hammertime, shouldn't he also be claiming or something?

[Hunter Sopko]

Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (4): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken

There are 2 hours left in Day Three.

[EvilTom]

So they're basically at 4 each, assuming Yoshi votes to save himself.

Cid/Delta/Rat - what's the main, #1 reason you're voting Excal; how does this compare to Yoshi? How would the flip help town?

Same question to Andy/Xanth/Snow, but in reverse.

Question for all: is there anyone you think is scummy outside of Excal/Yoshi? (I wouldn't want to dichotomise).

May as well get some useful outlined opinions down, while we wait for Yoshi's claim which I would like to hear.


My bedtime is rapidly approaching, it's 2.30am local time here

[Xanth]

I am around and available between now and the deadline.

Tom: what is it you want? I've already talked about Excal quite a bit, and Andy as the major part of the comparison that led to my vote on Yoshi. If there's anyone that I think needs further thought from me, it would be Rat, and maybe a reinforced opinion on Cid beyond that.

Oh, and Tom ninja quickly following. Guess I'll follow that in a separate post, as this was supposed to be a wave in and that'll take a bit to answer concisely.

[Sierra]

Tom Question #1: Extreme lurkitude first two days. Excal's tried to explain this away, but I find it sufficently damning on its own. He didn't really get moving until he was seriously in danger. Strago also had notably low activity the first day but it's hard to gauge how relevant this is given that he had to leave the game. How would the flip help town? Well, because I think he's scum, obviously, but it's also very informative in regards to how the day one trains went down (this is a bonus, of course, and is not what's driving me to lynch him).

#2: Andy, as I've noted. Yoshi's kind of an outlier and I'd put him behind either of these two.

[AndrewRogue]

Voting Yoshi pretty cleanly on the basis of some notably questionable arguments/attack patterns and Strago's noteworthy lurking and lack of voting on day 1, all of which I find to be more significant than the angle on Excal. Yoshi's flip gives us scum (hopefully!) a lot of vote dynamic, considering the relative vocalness since day 1.

Below that, I would probably rank the most scummy as Carth/Excal, leaving Xanth in a somewhat distant third.

[Hunter Sopko]

Votecount:
Excal (3): Cid, Yoshiken, Delta, Snowfire, Rat
Yoshiken (4): Andy, Xanth, Excal, Snowfire
Andy (0): Excal, EvilTom
Snowfire (1): Yoshiken

There is 1 hour left in Day Three.

[Carthrat]

I've.. already outlined my case on Excal, see earlier post. tldr; vote on xanth instead of meeple, lurkiness. On the new front, though, there's what you pointed out, which is that his snarky attitude late in the day isn't helping things (and it's mostly what's pushing him ahead), and I think it's more likely out of scum-Excal than town-Excal in general. Yoshiken is suspect, though most of this stems back to day one and early day three, and since at least part of it is based on early lurkdom he had no part in it's hard not to give him a bit of slack. I am not strictly opposed to either lynch (obviously.)

I don't really think in terms of intel a flip gives to town when deciding my lynch. Either it'll hit scum or it won't and I'll pick it up from there.

If you're asking for hard opinions on absolutely everyone, I don't have anything I'm willing to be definate on. Cid seems kinda good. Delta, Xanth, Snow are iffy. Andy's position is odd. That's as much as I can say, and I hesitate to say I'd finger any one of them as clearly scummier at this point.

[Xanth]

To fill in Tom's little survey:

#1 reason for voting Yoshiken: I'd be lying if I didn't say that it was due to the previously mentioned process of elimination that led me to believe that we're most likely to hit scum in {Andy, Yoshi}. On then actually comparing and contrasting the two of them, it's been Yoshi's repeatedly dubious lines of thought that really made him stand out over Andy as a suspect.

How does this compare to Excal: It's funny, because it's actually today's actions that have twisted me most on my belief for Excal, which in turn has worked against my grain of trust for Snow. Of recent particular concern from Excal are the 'you'll be sorry if you lynch me' attitude (especially when later tied to a vanilla claim, unless I'm missing out on some big past context), and the sudden endorsement of me on the basis of the end of day one. I mean, I'm happy that he agrees with that and all, but I don't see why it's only just coming out now. Which yes, then leads to Snow's thumbs up based on this, and the jump from one wagon to another.

Anyway, I digress. Between the earlier low content and the more recent attitude, I've found Excal's reasoning to be of far sturdier material, which I've mostly been inclined to believe in and have a hard time seeing scum setting themselves up for such an obvious fall.

How would the flip help town: not sure if I really see the angle here beyond plain aiming to hit scum. As much as people are worrying about dichotomies, Yoshi flipping town reads a lot worse for Andy.

Who else looks scummy: Andy's next on the list, although Yoshi flipping scum would help his position. Beyond the three of them, I have Rat to reconsider, and there's a horrible mess ahead if it turns out there is scum amongst the others.


Ninjaed by everyone and their dog. Go me.

[Yoshiken]

Yikes. Made it here with less time than I thought.

OK, firstly, no role-claim to be made, I'm afraid. All I'll say is that I'm town. Vanilla town, but town nonetheless.

Judging from previous posts here, it seems suspicions pretty much decided that it's me -v- Andy, with Snow & Excal as alternatives. I'm still suspicious of a Snow/Andy pair left, especially seeing as the majority have mentioned the four I said previously, except for Andy, who neglected to mention Snow in favour of Rat.

I'll admit, though - at the moment, I'm about as confused as everyone else seems to be.
I'm not gonna change my vote for Excal just to try and survive, because I don't think he's the major problem at this point. I will, however...
##Unvote: Snowfire.
##Vote: Andy.

Probably a little too late in the day, but it's worth a shot, I guess.

[Sierra]

How does this compare to Excal: It's funny, because it's actually today's actions that have twisted me most on my belief for Excal, which in turn has worked against my grain of trust for Snow. Of recent particular concern from Excal are the 'you'll be sorry if you lynch me' attitude (especially when later tied to a vanilla claim, unless I'm missing out on some big past context), and the sudden endorsement of me on the basis of the end of day one. I mean, I'm happy that he agrees with that and all, but I don't see why it's only just coming out now. Which yes, then leads to Snow's thumbs up based on this, and the jump from one wagon to another.

See bolded sentence. Argh, scum can and have pulled this act to save themselves before. It doesn't really mean anything. It certainly shouldn't excuse the viable reasons for which people are on Excal's case. Also, see sentence in italics near the end of the paragraph. Are you saying you trust Excal more now because he's expressed faith in you? Aren't you at all worried that he's scum looking for a town accomplice? The fact that it's just coming out now (as you acknowledge) should be worrisome in and of itself.

[Yoshiken]

I've.. already outlined my case on Excal, see earlier post. tldr; vote on xanth instead of meeple, lurkiness.

I'm just gonna point this out now, while I can - earlier, you criticised me, saying I had "never presented a case on the guy", yet now you're using the same reasoning I did. Interesting.

[Xanth]

Gah, you sure know how to make it hard for me, Yoshi. I was expecting you to just tie it and assume Tom (probably) would push Excal over the top, but this makes last minute choices really annoying.

There are only twenty minutes left, as well.


Cid ninja: no, I was saying precisely that, that the timing was worrying me. That entire paragraph you've quoted was of my concerns about Excal even in the face of support from other points.

[Sierra]

Okay, my bad for misinterpreting. Anything I could do to persuade you to shift votes? Any questions I've left unanswered?

[Xanth]

This has cut too close to the end for me to be sure I'm getting anything right. Honestly I'd be more inclined to shift to Andy if I thought there was a chance.

[EvilTom]

Is a last-minute shift to Andy viable/possible?

##Vote Andy - to find out.

TBH I'd rather lynch Excal over Yoshi. I'd rather lynch Andrew over Yoshi. Not sure if I'd rather lynch Andrew over Excal.

I'll look really stupid if Yoshi is scum, especially since I'm going on 'vibe' here rather than anything solid.