I'm trying really hard not to be weirded out by that flavor text. "Killed twice." What. Anyway, onwards to more serious stuff.
Knowing two-thirds of the scum team gives us a lot of information to work with (I'm assuming there's only one scum player left; three total is the typical amount for a game this size). Immediate repurcussions of Andy's flip, for example?
-Xanth looks a lot better. Made a push to get Andy in the running at the last minute, and his vote brought about the tie that eventually led to Andy's lynch. If Xanth was the third scum, he could've easily stuck with Yoshi or Excal and not looked bad for it at all. So Xanth's pretty much off the books at this point as far as I'm concerned.
-Yoshi benefits from this as well. If Yoshi was the third scum, he could've easily gone with Excal's lynch with no negative repurcussions. Survival vote + Excal being suspected by a number of people and the runner-up for votes at that time. I wouldn't necessarily call him cleared, but he's certainly less of a suspect.
You know, for all that I bitched about three-way sudden death yesterday, it's paid unexpected dividends. Man. Anyway, surviving players break down as follows:
Xanth/Tom/Delta: Effectively cleared of suspicion. See above for Xanth, Tom has Alex's roleclaim and subsequent flip going for him, and Delta...well, yes, I'm going back to him voting Meeple on day one. But we now know for sure that there was a scum player stuck on Meeple's train (Andy). It would be insane for both of Meeple's comrades to be boosting his votecount that early, especially since...yeah, again, it was Delta's vote that pushed Meeple in the lead at a time when one or two vote totals were common. So, barring the craziest gambit ever or a totally uncoordinated scum team (and I think I've made it clear that I default to simpler explanations than either of those theories), Delta's looking solidly townie to me.
So, on to the suspects. First, I'd like to quote Snowfire's post from yesterday wherein he broke day one's events down into two scenarios, because it's easier than explaining it all again myself. (Yes, I am quoting someone who's not totally cleared in order to support my own arguments, but I believe that the analysis herein is sound and, moreover, can be applied to Snowfire himself anyway).
Let's assume that there are 3 scum in the game (if there are 4, then the scum totally failed it up on Day1). I'm also going to assume that Xanth is not scum, as if he is then headaches ensue. Scenario A: Both the other scum did in fact try to cover for Meeple. This is a bright line leading to both Excal / YoshiStrago, as Excal voted for Xanth and Strago was absent. Scenario B: One of the scum was on the Meeple train early when he didn't think it would take off. Then, either due to genuine inactivity or the fact that it would look too suspicious to flip, their vote stayed on Meeple the length of Day1. The second scum was supposed to cover for Meeple.
Scenario A has now been demonstrated to be impossible, since only one of Yoshi/Snowfire/Excal (the living players with either a vote on not!Meeple or no active vote at all) can be scum and that situation calls for two. We now know that scenario B is at least partially true--there was a scum player stuck on Meeple (Andy). Given that, it makes perfect sense that the third scum would be trying to push a case on someone else to save him. So, we look at Xanth votes: Ryogo is dead, Tom is effectively cleared, Excal winds up being the odd man out. For the sake of thoroughness, though, I'll examine everyone.
Yoshi/Snowfire: Not perfectly cleared, but various circumstances make me less likely to believe they're scum at this point. Yoshi, for example? While yesterday's drawing to a close, he sticks with the player he thinks is scum even though it might cost him his own life. And he turns out to be right about it. Also...guess who Andy's vote was on yesterday? Right, Yoshi.
If Snowfire was scum, then he had a perfectly justifiable chance to lynch Xanth (and, in effect, save Meeple) day one and utterly failed to act on it. For all my reminders that scum are as fallible as town, even I have a hard time believing this one. Snowfire was around for sudden death, he did have time to hammer Xanth if he was inclined to do so. Instead, he...tries to back off both Meeple and Xanth and vote for Tom instead. I find it extraordinarily unlikely that scum would do this when one of their own (and a power role at that) hangs in the balance.
Excal: I've touched on this a little in the above paragraphs, but: process of elimination makes him a likely candidate, severe lurking the first two days makes him a likely candidate, being on two trains that have turned out to target virtually confirmed townies makes him a likely candidate. Add in his attack on Andy yesterday, which seems like a last ditch effort to draw battle lines between the two of them so that we won't link them together. Andy never responded to Excal on this matter. We've seen this kind of slip before in this very game: Andy/Meeple on day one. And Excal himself didn't stick with the case. In the end he went with...Yoshi. The same person Andy was voting on.
##Vote: ExcalEDIT: Tripleninja, doesn't change much.
