PokeMafia - Day 4

[Ranmilia]

Ah, rightyo.  Thanks, QR.  

Still think Snow's a good lynch though.  Better'n Sylon and Xanth.  The attitudes of the folks going on Xanth worry me.

Ninja - why?  
- Selfvote at beginning of day.  Weird, but whatever.  Not helpful though.
- Walls of text.  Not sure why.  Weird, but whatever.  Not helpful though.
- Seems dead set against lynching Sylon for some reason.  Complains case on Sylon is "just because."
- Supports lynching Xanth instead of Sylon, in the same post saying case on Xanth is "just because."  (actually "could be interesting but eh", same philosophy.  Also says he doesn't really want to unvote Ryogo, then does it anyway.  ALSO mistakenly unvotes Sylon instead of Ryogo, which... darned if that doesn't give me the weirdest vibes.  Seems he really, really does not want Sylon lynched.)
- Is super-pro-extension, which is fine though I don't agree with it... but continually says he has nothing and wants something to come up in the extension.  What?  Why?  Indicates waiting for someone else to make a case for him to get on (anyone that isn't Sylon, apparently?)

This is all pretty circumstantial... but it's scummier than anyone else to date by far.

Oh also, ninja'd by Snow.  At least three people now going "Well nobody but Xanth is viable!"  THIS ISN'T TRUE and I think pushing that viewpoint (especially with language like "votes that aren't on Xanth are wasted") is scummy.  Nobody's even gotten over 5 votes, for crying out loud.  Vote for who you think is scum.

[EvilTom]

 - Seems dead set against lynching Sylon for some reason.  Complains case on Sylon is "just because."

Do you really disagree? I can't see any case for lynching Sylon.
Most of your points aren't actually tells. They're just facts, that don't read town or scum either way.

[Kilgamayan]

I think Alex is using Snow's combination of "lynching Sylon 'just because is dumb" and "Xanth is a good lynch 'just because'" as a point against him. I think we can agree that hypocrisy is a scumtell.

[Ranmilia]

I don't disagree.  The scummy point is that he is against lynching Sylon just because and for lynching Xanth just because.  Being defensive of others day 1 is not a good thing!  I should know, I got burned on it the last two games I played.  

[Excal]

Erm, yeah.  I'm actually curious if there is a case on Xanth besides trying to defend Sylon, and his first response to Delta way back on page 1?

[SnowFire]

Sir Alex: Oh also, ninja'd by Snow.  At least three people now going "Well nobody but Xanth is viable!"  THIS ISN'T TRUE and I think pushing that viewpoint (especially with language like "votes that aren't on Xanth are wasted") is scummy.

Okay so I lied about last post before bed.  This will still be brief.  YES IT IS TRUE because Day 1 ends in 2 hours (possibly)!  And I won't be there for the end!  EvilTom made the same point: There's no shame in voting for the person scummiest among the viable candidates left.  This is not rocket science and happens in all games.

Also the walls of text thing is just false.  Go back and compare the size of my posts to that of others.

As for something to come up...  yes!  Carthrat hasn't posted in awhile and also requested an extension.  It'd be interesting to see what he has to say.  OblivionKnight has barely posted at all (though probably due to genuine RL issues from what Meeple said?).  I still only have a light read on Nietz.  Etc.

Frankly, I'm kind of annoyed right now, and would probably vote for you if I was voting my heart.  That said I am probably colored by OMGUS and stand by my earlier point about voting for the scummiest among the viable, so the Xanth vote stays.

Ninja posts: No, that's not what I'm saying.  Le sigh.  I am saying that I personally have a mild townie read on Sylon from others' responses if not Sylon himself.  You are free to disagree with that, but that's what I think.  I personally have no read on Xanth.  If you are given a choice between a confirmed townie and a random, you vote random!  If you are given a choice between someone who you think is more likely to be townie than average and random, you still vote random even though you're not as sure!  It's a crappy choice though, so hint hint hint what have I been railing about for a bunch of my posts that rhymes with "retention?"

[EvilTom]

You were town then Alex. So.. that's evidence against your case. I can agree that hypocrisy is bad, but if Snow is scum trying to protect Sylon, that would mean Sylon is also scum (most likely). It's possible that we hit scum on random lynch train and Snow is also scum.

case on Xanth besides trying to defend Sylon

The same logic - Xanth and Sylon would be scum. Which doesn't work, in that context.
I don't like the assumption that "x is defending y, they're both scum". It precludes town from defending people from stupid arguments (like this one).

My reason for voting Xanth is because of the Delta-slap, not because he defended Sylon. Sure, it was 'way back on page 1', but it wasn't a towny thing to do.
Snow ninja, will check in a sec.

[Kilgamayan]

Erm, yeah.  I'm actually curious if there is a case on Xanth besides trying to defend Sylon, and his first response to Delta way back on page 1?

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg54989#msg54989

[Ranmilia]

There's no shame in voting for the person scummiest among the viable candidates left.  This is not rocket science and happens in all games.

Frankly, I'm kind of annoyed right now, and would probably vote for you if I was voting my heart.  That said I am probably colored by OMGUS and stand by my earlier point about voting for the scummiest among the viable, so the Xanth vote stays.

 I personally have no read on Xanth. 

This is what I don't get.

Also, not to sidetrack, but an extension won't help.  Cases don't magically appear for you in extensions.  Rather, historically, what happens is that people go "Oh yay extension!" and then do nothing for the 12 hours and wind up in the same situation, just dragged out more.

[EvilTom]

Alex, there's no point me voting Excal right now, because nobody else has expressed an interest in doing so. It's like voting person x when y and z are in sudden death. Gah lecture ending, gotta run.

[Meeplelard]

You were town then Alex. So.. that's evidence against your case. I can agree that hypocrisy is bad, but if Snow is scum trying to protect Sylon, that would mean Sylon is also scum (most likely). It's possible that we hit scum on random lynch train and Snow is also scum.

This...reeks of WIFOM.  Yeah, ok, assuming Snowfire is scum, and he's protecting Sylon, wouldn't it be to his BENEFIT to defend a TOWN?  That way, it makes the person Snow defended look bad.

As I said, its a WIFOM, cause it'd be equally likely to defend a scum in hopes he doesn't get lynched for something as random as "lets go after someone cause they have votes!"  Similarly, Scum would often want to disassociate themselves with other scum members, in order to sever ties (or alternatively, make as many ties as possible, to add confusion into the mess.)

Not seeing Snowfire's actions, IOWs, weighing in on Sylon's worth; its too WIFOM to really second guess how Sylon relates to Snowfire (if at all.)

...
AND I GET NINJA'D cause my posting was lagging? ARGH! Damned internets! *shakes fist*

[Meeplelard]

Blech, re-reading Tom's post, I realize now he was essentially pointing out HOW that logic is flawed.  So uh, yeah, I more or less just supported everything he said.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilgamayan: See my logic before about how things would have gone if Sylon had a theoretical scumbuddy.  They have a perfectly justifiable reason to raise hell over the Sylon train, but that hasn't happened (except for me - this logic works best from my perspective, since I know I'm town; if Sylon flips scum, I will grant that I will look worse.).  In fact, people seemed to be kicking up their heels saying "Well, this is the best we can do."  If you are scum this is the best possible case - have a lazy mislynch that requires little scum guidance to set off. 

I've been thinking of this, trying to find a way where it does not also apply to the Xanth train, and not succeeding. Maybe Alex's objections to the Xanth train, but if he objected to it because he's Xanth's scumbuddy why the hell would he move off of Sylon and bring Sylon and Xanth together in the vote count?

I'm starting to agree with the hypocrisy accusation regarding "let's not lynch Sylon 'just because' let's lynch Xanth 'just because' instead".

What the hell - I'll be up until deadline if necessary, and this is more than I have on Xanth.

##Unvote: Xanth
##Vote: SnowFire

[SnowFire]

Sir Alex: This is what I don't get.

Sure, if you chop out the explanation I'm sure it makes no sense.

This will be my last attempt to explain myself as I sadly am unable to find sleep.  Let's rate people on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being confirmed town and 10 being surely scum.

Xanth is average - 5.
Sylon is, to me, mildly townie - 4.
SnowFire is extremely townie - 0.
SirAlex is, to me, mildly scummy - 6.

If the choice is between Xanth and Sylon - well, 5>4 !  Thus it may make sense to vote for a "random" - if the only other options are even worse.

I suppose I should clarify one thing - I don't mean that Xanth is a perfect blank slate.  He's made some good points, which earns him mild townie points, but he's also come off a bit as the disinterested bystander which is a possible scumtell.  I feel it mostly cancels out.  (There's another, metagamey reason for mild suspicion of Xanth based on what I've read of him before, but bringing it up would probably get me rightly flamed, and it's quite likely irrelevant anyway, so meh on that.)

Also you keep on talking about extensions as if they are all alike.  This is an extension to a 36-hour day when multiple notable people have not really posted much and half the people in it would like one.  And I stand by my original philosophical point anyway - games are only fun if people get a chance to participate in them.

Ninja'd by Kilgamayan.  Well, see above.

[Kilgamayan]

I understand the logic in 5>4. I don't understand the logic in selecting 5 and 4 in the first place, because your "Sylon scumbuddy would have raged over Sylon train" reason for putting Sylon at 4 can mostly be pasted over the Xanth train as well.

[QuietRain]

VOTECOUNT - Corrected as I did indeed only catch half of Alex' vote (the unvote part).  

Yoshiken(0): Bardiche
Snowfire(3): Xanth, Snowfire, SirAlex, Excal, Kilgamayan
Carthrat(1): OblivionKnight
OblivionKnight(0): Excal, Carthrat
Kilgamayan(0): Nietz
Sylon(3): SirAlex, EvilTom, Excal, Carthrat, Ryogo, Nietz
Deltaflyer2k8(1): Sylon, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Xanth(4): Kilgamayan, Meeplelard, Strago, SnowFire, EvilTom
Meeplelard(1): Bardiche, Xanth
QuietRain (0): EvilTom
Ryogo (0): SnowFire

VOTES FOR EXTENSION (9 needed for majority)
(8) : SnowFire, Yoshiken, Nietz, Sylon, Meeplard, Ryogo, EvilTom, Carthrat

Deadline in about  2 hours.  It takes 9 to lynch.  REMINDER: If there is no vote count leader, a random target among those that share the highest vote counts against them will be done by myself at deadline tonight.  Avoid this.

[SnowFire]

I disagree that the logic applies to Xanth equally.  Xanth has participated and can defend himself; setting things on fire to defend him might attract attention and be a possible scumtell should Xanth ever flip.  Sylon is unavailable due to RL reasons.  Such a target is a bad lynch in general (though perhaps a valid modkill) for the lack of information they tend to give, and this is a town-aligned argument.  In fact this argument majorly came up in Simpsons Mafia Day 1, as I noted before, and was used quite successfully by the town to lynch scumMeeple!  So...  defending Sylon is something a theoretical scumbuddy could easily do while appearing a perfect townie as doing so, because a townie (like me) frankly should have been doing so earlier.  Doing so for Xanth wanders far more into WIFOM territory rather than "easy win" territory.

If you disagree with my logic, that's fine, of course.  But...  the reason to vote against me would be "blatantly bad logic that implies your scum and don't really care" not "eh I disagree," I hope.

[Strago]

arglehellfuck

Got home much later than anticipated. Caught up on the thread, but cannot keep my dang eyes open any longer. I also don't see a compelling reason to vote for anyone other than Xanth at this point, though, nor too extend the day. Extensions are blargh and I hate them. So. I'll see you guys in the morning.

[Ranmilia]

No, the part I don't agree with is where Snow states "I'm voting for the scummiest person" and then even numerically ranks people as scummy and then doesn't vote for the scummiest person.  

The problem here is limiting the choice to only Xanth and Sylon, which was never true.  Saying that is now or ever was the case is something that does not sit well with me, I find it quite scummy.  (More people than just Snow have done it, very much granted.  They also do not sit well with me.)

[Excal]

Except that Sylon posted, and was seen in the forums, which Delta hadn't been.  And outside of Tom's joke vote, and Alex's nothing better reaffirmation, everyone on Sylon had a reason for being there.  And, the biggest offender, Alex, has since moved on with reasoning as to why he's moving on.  So, it's not exactly like Meeple.

Snow, about your townies should defend the defenseless?  It's a good scumtell if they can't convincingly say why they're going to such lengths, or have been proven to be town.  After all, where does the certainty come from otherwise?  And it's definatly coming across here, since you're fighting tooth and nail for someone who you don't even seem to say is overly townie in and of himself, against someone who you say you don't find scummy.

And this is the thing that really gets to me, that doesn't seem to make any sense.

[Kilgamayan]

Snow: Xanth has been unavailable to defend himself for IRL reasons for quite a few hours now (see: bed), and it is in this time that his train became truly significant. The only guy that really spoke out against it unvoted Sylon to bring the two to a tie. Where is Xanth's defense-by-a-buddy right now?

[Kilgamayan]

Ryogo, you've been around since this all went down, as evidenced by your avatar and flavor text change. What are your opinions on the situation?

[QuietRain]

Day wraps in about 50 minutes, folks.  Midnight my time.

[Xanth]

Right right. As promised, I'm back around now, and see that there's no extension (good), but I'm yet again out in front (bad), and my voting for one of the other two brings us to a tie (also bad, although still better for me).

Will read and respond in bunches for you.

[Carthrat]

Given the propensity for DL mafia to have turnaround lynches close to deadline, I'm gonna go ahead and call bullshit on people refusing to vote for cases other than those 'locked in'. There is precedent. It has produced great results in the past. Why the fallacies against this? It only really applies during the very late deadline when few people are around, not... where it came up earlier. We're assured *a* lynch, too, so there's less of an urgent 'we must have majority' thing going down. Come on, people.

DT has actually defended Delta earlier this game, even right in the jokevote phase, jokingly. 'because he's delta' no longer really cuts it; you can just as say 'it's easy to look townie defending delta because he's delta'. Xanth's comments is terribly minor and a pretty silly thing to be calling out for a vote at this stage. If that's your strongest point on someone, I weep.

Snowfire having a townie vibe on Sylon really irked me, earlier. He hadn't done anything, and drew all his conclusions from what other people were doing around him. Then he didn't even actually go after any of 'em (let's not forget that part of his hypothesis was 'lots of people voting for one guy seems bad and untrustworthy'), instead focusing on the unrelated Xanth. Yeah sure don't vote Sylon because you think he's just sick or whatever, but actually going out and saying 'he's townlike!' is way too weird.

So...  defending Sylon is something a theoretical scumbuddy could easily do while appearing a perfect townie as doing so, because a townie (like me) frankly should have been doing so earlier.

If you disagree with my logic, that's fine, of course.  But...  the reason to vote against me would be "blatantly bad logic that implies your scum and don't really care" not "eh I disagree," I hope.

Wait, what? Is this actually logic? It seems a very confusing way of saying 'defending Sylon is a null tell, ergo you should have no tell on me'.

Wait, actually, I get it! It's saying 'defending Sylon is an optimal move and everyone should defend Sylon.' I don't like how this narrows the possible action sphere down- it ignores the possible intent behind the action, which needs to be put into the context of someone's other actions.

I'd vote him for that, since by now he's just making no sense to me; I can't see the way he's thinking coming naturally at all. ##Unvote, ##Vote: Snowfire