Meh. I have a sore throat and a sniffly nose and still can't sleep and people are still... I don't follow what exactly the problem is with what I said. Life sucks sometimes.
I'm repeating myself here but I have nothing better to do while blowing my nose. I apologize if I come off too snarky here, but since things obviously aren't being communicated well, I feel some snark is required.
Kilgamayan: Like I said before. I've already explained my very hypothetical, Day1ish argument. I will be the first to say that it's not foolproof but those are the kind of arguments we have on Day1. Lynching everyone who proposes a theory is great for scum. I've also already explained why my comments don't really apply for Xanth, but might make more sense in the case of a hypothetical scumSylon. Basically:
Scum want to do two things: Appear town and defend their buddies. When a chance comes along to simultaneously defend their buddies and appear town, then they often take it. Not always, for sure, as this can lead to its own predictability and WIFOM issues... but in general. This is even more true if we are dealing with two small scum teams - a team of 4 scum can afford to spread itself out across the debate early, while 2 scumbuddies need to stick together a bit more, especially due to the risk of randomly getting nightkilled by the other side.
Making a fuss over Sylon would - to me at least - be a town-aligned move. And if Sylon was scum, then this would fulfill both a scum's goals- defend their buddy without looking too suspicious (to people like me who think lynching a person mostly not around is useless). Obviously if you don't buy that defending Sylon is particularly town-friendly, ignore this! But I do.
The same scenario doesn't apply to Xanth, as he doesn't have Sylon's "but he's not here" argument. (Also Xanth isn't here due to time zones, not an RL issue or illness - presumably he'll be here shortly? He said he would, at least...) Someone stepping up to defend Xanth majorly.. well, why? It could be done, but if Xanth ever flipped, they might look bad.
I also want to stress that this is all based on chances going one way or the other. Obviously scumbuddies could be in the wrong timezones, making mistakes, not agreeing with what I think, the works, but I stand by "this is likely what would happen in general." A weak argument? Perhaps, but it's enough for me.
Excal: Yes I am fighting this one out. I'm fighting it out because I believe that Day1 matters, and that we should get a good lynch off it, and not sit back and let randomness / scum decide our lynch for us. I believe Xanth is more likely to be that lynch than Sylon, whose lynch would tell us very little. (On the bright side, Sylon does not appear to be in nearly as much danger at the moment, albeit at the cost of confirmed townie me now being in the spotlight.) Of course this is all with the huge asterisk of "if no extension goes through." Who knows, it's quite possible I'll be hopping on board a new Sylon train after all, but I'd like to see Sylon post again first.
Sir Alex: It's a philosophical issue. I would have voted Gore in 2000 even if I'd been a Nader supporter (which happily I wasn't). You note that others believe that too. If you wish to argue against it, great, but it can't possibly be a scumtell since I would cheerfully repeat the same thing outside of the game and in any game I am in. (Usual disclaimer: if we have more time such that changing the lynch target is possible, that DOES entirely change the game. However that is even less true now than it was when I first noted that.)
Ninja'd by Carthrat and Xanth. Hmm. Is this really making so little sense? Yeesh. I'm not sure what to say. I'll just repeat again that the exact same logic was used to defend Delta in Simpsons mafia, and I basically agree with it! Serious mafia philosophy question - is there something I'm just massively missing here as to how the Delta and Sylon cases are being seen differently? Anyway looks like I need to post again, though preferably after seeing Xanth's post. Since as I've said before, Xanth was only a "best alternative" lynch to me.
