General comments: To some extent now that Sylon has flipped, the Sylon train / arguments is water under the bridge. And... Sylon wasn't scum. So... obviously there are a whole mess of reasons for voting against me, but it seems one of the biggest ones is "Snow's logic is all wrong." Obviously scum to some extent "know" at least some of who's innocent (though with two scumteams, less so) and thus can be tempted into using fallacious logic, but... all I can say is that I'm sincere in my theory which apparently went over like a lead balloon. Excal is right that this isn't a town-tell- "sincere" applies both to sincere townies and scummers sincerely trying to be town - but I'd humbly suggest it isn't a scumtell either. Your results may vary.
There's also EvilTom's point - a Snow/Sylon team was admittedly a possibility when viewed from afar, and lynching one of us to find out would have had some value... but we know better now.
Responses / Thoughts (WARNING: This is a genuine Wall of Text, my apologies):
Nietz, a long time ago, re me:
"I can't say I like how the Sylon wagon has waned without him having to do anything. And I like even less how SnowFire argues that Sylon is town exactly for doing nothing."I don't want to go back to the moot point too much, but that wasn't quite my theory. My theory was that if Sylon was scum, then his scumbuddy was failing it up massively, which I found somewhat implausible.
Strago:
Think you sort of... shot yourself in the foot here, Snow. I see what sort of devil's advocate stuff you're trying to say, here, but actually for me it suddenly highlights in very stark relief the weirdness of your Sylon defense.http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55146#msg55146Er... sorry? It's Day1. I was undercutting myself because obviously it WAS possible that Sylon was scum, due to the aforementioned possible holes in my little "theory" (scumbuddies not acting as planned, away, etc.). I'm not sure why numbers fill you with bloodrage, but that was an extreme oversimplification because my "I don't have much on Xanth but he's the best option" statement was drawing fire. I was trying to show a very simple case where this would obviously make sense.
Strago again:
This is especially true, to my mind, since it seems like whatever other lynch took place would not be spurred on by any persuasive argument by SnowFire himself,http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55169#msg55169This is my fault, I will grant, I should have been doing this more actively last night. Remember, however, that I was strongly hoping (and even expecting?) the extension and for new material to work with. The main thing I got off the Sylon train was that Sylon was mildly more likely to be town, and going to bat for people you think are likelier to be town is also an important pro-town role. Knowing who NOT to lynch is also valuable. That said, yes, I probably should have posted more on my own suspicions.
Yoshiken:
I can appreciate the odd mistake, but something as basic as (the same thing everyone else has brought up about) voting for "Just because" after giving that as the reason not to vote is majorly flawed.http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55175#msg55175The Xanth vote was entirely an artifact of the fact that I thought the day might end too soon before any new content could come up, be digested, and form a new lynch train, and I said as much. If the day had been 58 hours long from the get-go it never would have happened. So, yes: I said I wasn't happy with that vote!
Kilgamayan:
"Thou shalt not suffer scum to live" an' all that. You're awfully certain I'm scum.
Xanth:
(the vote on Ryogo is particularly weird)http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55197#msg55197I'm actually still really ambivalent on Ryogo. Not many posts to work with, but they haven't felt very useful, and he also hopped on board the questionable-to-me Sylon train. Granted, it's Day 1. He ranks in my "keep an eye on" list, certainly.
Strago:
Cut our losses, end the day. Am I wrong?http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55199#msg55199"Cut our losses?" How about "do the best lynch we can?" People were giving me crap for "settling for the second best" on Xanth, but now we've got plenty of time. Let's get a lynch we can all get behind, not an "eh, whatever" lynch.
Ryogo:
If Alex was scummier to you, why didn't you put your votes down for him?? 5 may be greater than 4, but 6 is even larger than both! This is just adding strikes to the board. (Reading on later, noticed Delta makes the same point, so I guess I second it.)Again, again, I didn't vote for SirAlex at the time because he had 0 votes, the day was ending soon, and I was trying to get to bed with a nasty cold. See the game theory arguments elsewhere. If I'd known I wouldn't be able to sleep, or if I'd known the extension would have gone through, then I would have voted differently, obviously. At the time of that post, it was something like 5 -Xanth, 4- Sylon, 3- Me. Unvoting Xanth and leaving would potentially have gotten me or Sylon lynched given no extension, and I wanted neither of those outcomes.
Excal:
Kilga, gave solid reasons, and both of his train memberships are well explained, so he's probably the strongest pro-town player for me at the moment.I can't say I agree with this at the moment - I find Kilgamayan's reasons pretty bad, but obviously I have a radically different viewpoint on things here. That said I will concede that Kilgamayan does not appear particularly scummier than average, since I can very much see "townie with irreconcilable differences with SnowFire at the moment."
Carthrat: I'm... still not sure what to make of him. Perhaps will come back later.
OblivionKnight:
This is making me want to vote for you, except I want to know where this assurance of Sylon being town came from.I was not sure Sylon was town. People are making a huge, huge error: you can be strongly against something without necessarily "knowing!" Perhaps I should bring the numbers up again: You should be strongly in favor of earning 10 dollars over 2 dollars, but you should be just as strongly in favor of earning 5 dollars over 4 dollars. Saying "Sylon is a bad lynch" != "Sylon is confirmed town!" As for my argument in favor of Sylon... I'd just be repeating myself again.
Still plenty of time left in the day, so I fully expect that those who believe that trains can change at any time are willing to reconsider things and not go along with an SF lynch "just because."
Will try and post again, as there's still stuff I need to respond to as well as advance theories. Short version: Let's lynch Excal or Sir Alex, they both have suspicious points to me. Will expand on that more below.
EDIT: Edit was after the game completed, fixing italics for posterity, that's why I wasn't modkilled.
