PokeMafia - Day 4

[SnowFire]

Okay, OK response.

I think it is very hard, nigh-impossible, really, to have a townie/scummy list on day 1.  You have so damn little to go on.  http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55061#msg55061 ...you call him a confirmed townie.  Why?  I've read through all this...and I don't know why.

Except...  I don't.  Let me quote my paragraph in full:

--
Ninja posts: No, that's not what I'm saying.  Le sigh.  I am saying that I personally have a mild townie read on Sylon from others' responses if not Sylon himself.  You are free to disagree with that, but that's what I think.  I personally have no read on Xanth.  If you are given a choice between a confirmed townie and a random, you vote random!  If you are given a choice between someone who you think is more likely to be townie than average and random, you still vote random even though you're not as sure!  It's a crappy choice though, so hint hint hint what have I been railing about for a bunch of my posts that rhymes with "retention?"
--

This goes back to why it's important to get "town" reads on people and not just "scum" reads.  I say that if given the choice between a confirmed townie and a random, you vote for the random candidate..  which I hope you agree with?  I then move into the "likely to be town vs. random" case, which actually was what was happening that night for Xanth vs. Sylon to me.

 Unless you're a psychic pokemon or something, how do you know he's town before he dies?  You seem to dig yourself deeper with this post: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55090#msg55090.  "Making a fuss over Sylon would - to me at least - be a town-aligned move.  And if Sylon was scum, then this would fulfill both a scum's goals- defend their buddy without looking too suspicious (to people like me who think lynching a person mostly not around is useless).  Obviously if you don't buy that defending Sylon is particularly town-friendly, ignore this!  But I do."  I said why this is off earlier - if he were to pop scum, this would make you look worse, to me!  This is making me want to vote for you, except I want to know where this assurance of Sylon being town came from.

No, it's absolutely true - if Sylon had flipped scum I would have looked worse (if you aren't me and thus can't self-confirm innocence).  So?  There are plenty of times where legitimate townie behavior will make you look suspicious.  I know you weren't in Simpsons Mafia, but Excal was under heavy suspicion a lot of the game and was eventually lynched despite being a townie there for reasons that really weren't his fault at all.

Now, your claim...mmm...wouldn't trackers follow anyone?  See what they do?  You could have tracked anyone last night...though, no idea how many shots, and not everyone could act, so....

...wait a second.  So...if you didn't use this, how could you be sure Sylon was town?  Maybe reading through 10 pages of mafia in less than 30 minutes has meshed it together, but where do you say you're sure?  You've just said it's not your role...so....how?  He flipped town, sure...but this means you are either lying, or...well, your logic?

Please tell me why you were so sure, because I have no idea, and I find that more damning than the other stuff, since now you've kind of forced yourself into a logic hole - a deep one.

Already said it, but I wasn't sure Sylon was town, but I felt he was more likely to be town, and I believe that town should lynch the *best* choice every Day, and Sylon was not the best choice.

Ack, ninja.  Will post this anyway.

[SnowFire]

Snowyfire:

Ok...I do apologize for saying you said he was confirmed town...I thought I remembered reading that you did say he was confirmed and you were sure he was town, but after another look...I can't find it.  So maybe spam reading all those posts made my brain explode.  Though...

This: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55090#msg55090
"...albeit at the cost of confirmed townie me now being in the spotlight"

I understand you want him to post again to see his views, which is understandable.  Still, confirmed townie?  No.  If you were confirmed, you wouldn't have votes on you.  Not sure what this says, but it's odd that when you're in danger, you start adding this.  

The confirmed townie was one SnowFire who was in the spotlight.  He got a bunch of votes after defending Sylon.

This: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55100#msg55100
"...On the downside we lynched sure town, but so it goes"

Where does this come from?  This is what I think I took as you saying he was confirmed.  The grammar and context are a bit off, so I thought you were referring to Sylon here.  I don't know where this fits, in context, now that I look at it.  Can you clarify?  It's an ODD thing to say at this stage, though.

Confirmed townie SnowFire had 5 votes, Xanth had 4 votes, the deadline was in 5 minutes, I was ready to roleclaim.

Well, I've now confused myself.  Could you do me a favour and answer my query?  I'm still trying to analyze all this information.  I think you might just be a misguided townie, but I want to clarify.

Any other questions I'll be happy to answer, sure.

[Meeplelard]

Ok, I'm back and...OH GOD WALL OF TEXT SPAM MY BRAIN *cries*

Drama aside...

OK speaking, good!  Not getting much out of him since he's obviously speaking as someone (whatever he's aligned too) who just got back and had to go through the Day 1 Cluster fuck and sum up all his thoughts on it, so, yeah, not getting anything based off him.  Neutral vibes!

Sylon's death hurts, but it does help shed-light in Snow.  I generally agree that a Scum protecting another town in a multi-scum game is very risky; him simply not knowing the identity of Sylon at all and trying to be a cautious town protecting someone put on trial for no reason other than "lets train him! Besides, he hasn't spoken much!" says a lot.  Actually, thinking on it, I think ALEX a few times in the past has outright stated "LAL is completely irrelevant on Day 1."  You'll note I didn't push for "Kill OK!" when he wasn't speaking; more just "damn it, speak up already!" (and he did.)

My position on Xanth...well, thing is, I still don't see a good enough reason to remove it.  Its Day 1, so I don't have a strong reason to KEEP IT, but that early game play has left me with a bad taste (attacking Snowfire's Voting himself DURING THE JOKE PHASE, going after Delta that way, the vote that very much had an "OMGUS/Me-too" vibes to it, etc.  These are minor, but its Day 1; its very hard to find sufficient evidence.)  I don't see any significantly better targets, and as I said, I was willing to hammer if only to end the day if it came to that.

Alex's things on Snowfire feel like he's sniping at Snow for being...Snow.  I dunno; like I said, its day 1 shenanigans; you go with what you got.

I don't think there's a strong feeling on ANYONE at the moment, basically; rather than sum up everything in a long Wall of Text, I'll just stay with that.  Its Day 1, and people are grasping for straws wherever possible, trying to validate the scenario.  The Sylon flip does help us shed some light on actions, I suppose, and it does make Snowfire look a little better in retrospective, though he's hardly in the clearing.  At this point, I just want this god damn day to end.

In fairness, the Extension DID help as it allowed a few more people to speak up and some people even changed their mind on Snowfire, so in that regards, Alex (I think it was) was wrong.  Not sure that says much about Alex's role in this game, though, its worth noting that Snowfire was dangerously close to being lynched at the Deadline, and Alex is one of the people strong arming the Snowfire train.

[OblivionKnight]

Snowyfire:

Ok...I do apologize for saying you said he was confirmed town...I thought I remembered reading that you did say he was confirmed and you were sure he was town, but after another look...I can't find it.  So maybe spam reading all those posts made my brain explode.  Though...

This: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55090#msg55090
"...albeit at the cost of confirmed townie me now being in the spotlight"

I understand you want him to post again to see his views, which is understandable.  Still, confirmed townie?  No.  If you were confirmed, you wouldn't have votes on you.  Not sure what this says, but it's odd that when you're in danger, you start adding this.  

The confirmed townie was one SnowFire who was in the spotlight.  He got a bunch of votes after defending Sylon.

No, I understand you're talking about yourself here as "confirmed townie".  I'm just wondering how you came to that logic (obviously, you know yourself), and why it popped up so suddenly (obviously, you're in danger).  It just came up so suddenly, and you seemed to tie it there to defending Sylon.  It's a bit...odd, to me.

[QuietRain]

VOTECOUNT

Yoshiken(0): Bardiche
Snowfire(6): Xanth, Snowfire, SirAlex, Excal, Kilgamayan, Carthrat, Xanth, Deltaflyer, EvilTom, Strago
Carthrat(0): OblivionKnight
OblivionKnight(0): Excal, Carthrat
Kilgamayan(0): Nietz
Sylon(0): SirAlex, EvilTom, Excal, Carthrat, Ryogo, Nietz
Deltaflyer2k8(1): Sylon, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Xanth(1): Kilgamayan, Meeplelard, Strago, SnowFire, EvilTom
Meeplelard(1): Bardiche, Xanth, Xanth
QuietRain (0): Ryogo
Ryogo (1): SnowFire, Nietz
Excal (2): SnowFire, EvilTom
SirAlex (2): Bardiche, Ryogo

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.  Deadline in about seven hours. 

Last vote count before heading home.  Will be offline for an hour or two.

[SnowFire]

OK: Eh, it was my attempt at dry humor.  Obviously all the townies here are 100% sure they are town; if we assume 4 scum / 15 other people, there's a 26.6% chance of any random person being scum.  I was trying to convince town not to lynch somebody who I thought was less likely to be scum, and my efforts seemingly had drawn attention to the one person who's alignment I'm sure of, me, so that we went from lynching "likely town" (Sylon) to "sure town" (me, at least from my perspective having seen my PM).  Though with any luck, we won't be lynching the "confirmed townie" after all...  any thoughts on others?

Meeple: No read at all?!  Really?  Well, it is Day 1, but I'd tentatively suggest that Alex and Excal are better lynch targets here.  Sure, it could just be personality conflict, but perhaps the kind that can kind of look townie yet still not help town.  Any thoughts?

That said: I'm going to be out for a bit myself, so be back later.

[Xanth]

Right, done with that. I can't sensibly be here both now and at 6am, so unless anyone specifically wants me to be around for the final hour (speak up quickly if so, please) I'm going to just plow through stuff now, and then set my alarm for like ten minutes before the deadline in case there's a desperate need for last minute vote changes (although please no).

[OblivionKnight]

Other reads...well, analyzing all this in a few hours is a pain.  Honestly, to begin with, I didn't suspect you at all, then did, then had questions...my overall read on you is that you're speaking and not everything is coming out clear.  Some of the logic jumps are a bit odd...but they don't make me think bad.  The extension whoring...is bad, and good, so...I don't think I see you as a bad person.  I get some good and bad from what I've read so far, but I think the good is outweighing the bad at the moment.

As for others...

Nietz...I have no read on.  Being on Ryogo as a vote...ok, that works.  He had been absent for a while.  Still, I don't know that much here...but going for Ryogo when he did was workable, and...eh, he's contributed.  Lurking is more posting and saying jack and shit

Strago's...been more active.  I like that.  Seems like his normal self, for whatever that's worth.  Not threatening to me at the moment.

Xanth...I find fairly good, actually.  The contribution is good, he's active, and I haven't had anything significant jump out at me yet.  

Tom...posted in a big spurt, not a huge amount, but then returned...protecting Snowy.  Mmm...I don't see this as a strike against him.

I guess overall I don't have a strong read on anyone.  I'd like to hear more from Delta,  I don't have an issue with the initial flare at the game, but I feel like he's been oddly silent thus far.

Alex, Carth...I'll be honest, I can never seem to get a good read on them.  Alex has pushed Snowy a bit (a lot), and with decent enough reasons, though it seems like others have taken over for his initial salvo.  Carth...somewhat similar.

Like I said, I'm not pulling anything strong towards anyone.  I think a flip will help a lot, in this case.  I'm mostly throwing around a lot of what ifs in my head right now.  Granted, don't want a random lynch and flip.  



 

[Nietz]

Nietz...I have no read on.  Being on Ryogo as a vote...ok, that works.  He had been absent for a while.  Still, I don't know that much here...but going for Ryogo when he did was workable, and...eh, he's contributed.  Lurking is more posting and saying jack and shit

I`m not onto him for lurking in particular, but more because his few posts had Low Original Content and seemed like he was kind of just coasting along the whole day.
Anyway, it seems nobody else was convinced by it. But I don't really have any strong opinions in any of the other ongoing cases and I won't be awake much longer, so my vote will likely stay here until the end of the Day. 

[Ryogo]

Alright, going through the rest of the thread, I've noticed a considerable Alex disappearance. This worries me. Would really like to hear from him again before the day is over, at least say something in defense to the claims against him. Hasn't posted since 9 this morning but mentions he's going to bed. I don't know if he's one of those crazy people that live on the OTHER side of the world, but for his sake there, I'll assume so. Pfffft. Crazy peeps.

As of my readings, Alex still is the most viable lynch option in my eyes. The SnowFire train has jumped off the tracks, and I'm will to accept his explanations for his reasoning of voting Excal>Alex. I see him as clear of the chopping block, at least for today. Sorry if I seem ambivalent. I've been busy today, and I'm all around terrible at Mafia anyways/putting my ideas out.

I don't really have much more to say. I've been school working majority of the day and my brain is fried. I just can't analyze right now.

OK has been absent most of this time, so I can't get a solid read off him. His recent posts lean me to believe pro town. Informative, full of opinions on people. Very helpful in my opinion.

Xanth flip-flops in my mind. He seemed pretty dead set on the SnowFire lynch, along with Strago. But when the chance to hammer their number one suspect and end the day that they both were against extending came, both people backed off. That sends some alarm bells ringing for sure to me, but not enough to change my vote.

Other people seem fairly townie to me right now.

[SnowFire]

Nietz: Fair enough, I've some suspicions of Ryogo as well...  but if you're getting to bed...  would you have any interest in flipping to a target more likely to actually be lynched (with the earlier vote on Ryogo still being noted as a relevant suspicion)?  You expressed strong skepticism of my towniness earlier, but didn't vote me.  With Sylon's flip, I hope I look at least somewhat better...  would you be interested in joining whatever not-Snow train starts?  (I am obviously extremely biased and would love to see a not-Snow train form.)

Tentatively, I'm thinking that it may be easier to vote for SirAlex here, since I think EvilTom will be back in time to switch his vote if necessary while I'm not as sure about Ryogo switching his vote...  I can always change it later, but announcing intent to switch vote to SirAlex out of interests of self-preservation. if the Excal train doesn't catch any more votes.  (I still think Excal is the best lynch, but SnowFire is the worst lynch.)

OK: Fair enough comments.  I'll admit a light townie read on Xanth as well (though...  I am obviously biased on this), amusingly enough since I was voting for him earlier...  though it's tricky, since my light townie-read is mostly due to the fact I think he's taking scum-hunting seriously.  But both teams of scum have an incentive to scum-hunt seriously, because they'd like to kill the other scum team, so usual grains of salt.

Ninja'd by Ryogo.  Hmm, so you're in favor of lynching Sir Alex?  Yeah, I can get behind that about as well as Excal.  See above, mostly.  Not sure I agree with you on Xanth, though.

[Ranmilia]

Awake.  Oh god, walls of text.

Strago and OK showed up, good good.  I like Strago's thinkings.

Snowfire... is still not voting for me?  Ah okay he thinks Excal is scummier now.  With Bard coming in to hit me instead, because...  I was on a bad case early to get things started, and then moved to a better case once I found one?  Inasmuch as Bard has phrased it to sound bad and evil, I think this is pretty much ideal play for day 1 and don't really see anything to defend myself against there?  Yeah.

Excal has been hanging back somewhat and I'm getting a bit of a scummy vibe from that... like I get from him every game.  Yeah day 1.  Reserving judgment there.  

Tom is kinda weird and I'm not so happy about his methods.  He's just come in, taken easily defensible positions without contributing much and left.

Bard spent the whole day silent, then dropped the last minute extension hammer and came out with a case on me which... as above, seems like a noncase.  As Strago and others pointed out, this is rather alarming and a very easy scum stance.  There's probably some OMGUS here but he's definitely my second choice at the moment.

Snow is still all over the place.  I'll admit outright I'm not reading those walls.  Not on day 1.  There just isn't enough going on.  (Yes, that comes with the caveat that all day 1 cases are bad, this is a given.)  

Inclined to stay on Snow for expediency's sake  - WOTs are unhealthy for town, as is not voting the person you think scummiest, etc, see earlier.  The flailing has me in a bit of self doubt and I would probably support a move to Tom or Bard.... but then again just last game I let this very person off the hook for flailing day 1, but I was wrong and he was actually scum....  nah, no more passes on "too crazy to be scum."  Not in a two scumteam game like this one.

[Xanth]

On Meeple vs Alex/Excal: my follow on to Meeple shouldn't be the greatest of surprises given that I did cover everyone between this post and this post (I think the only major immediate change was that Strago showed up and dropped a lot of the criticism I had on him). I guess the two factors are that my position on Meeple may not be seen as significant, and that I don't buy into Bard's case as I'm apparently expected to.

Meeple has talked a lot and said very little. Almost no opinion on anyone at all, and even at this point is clinging to me on the basis of a few scraps from the start, most of which can't even hope to apply (self-vote has been done to death in the thread, and I was the least of the 'offenders' on Delta, unless you're going to point to my more recent questioning of him). Ten pages for an almost gut theory and basically nothing else (bar mild Snow support)? It's a fairly simple case of high profile lurking for the most part, from what I see of it.


I don't really see the Alex case. No problem spotted with the placing of the Sylon vote; not being around for a while can be placed on far too many people; coming back and initially maintaining Sylon doesn't read bad for the timing given that this was during the short period that I wouldn't have called Sylon a lurker (it's not long after he came on and badly defended himself); finding and swapping to Snow reads as natural and it's hard to be quite so critical of it when he was the one to start and push the train quite so late on.

The rest of Bard's argument seems based on skewing the Sylon vote in a manner I can't see at all and a difference in opinion over the whole extension deelie. Even with my changed vote I still side with Alex on this one. I can continue to discuss this if desired, but it seems somewhat of a distraction to me.

So, uh, I kind of side with frustratingly long periods of absence (but same for others, and he's doing more with the time that he is here), and could at least be drawn into dialogue about his focus on Snow, but he still reads considerably better than Meeple to me. Any other particular points I should be considering against him?


Is Excal being tarred with the same brush as Alex? I guess I should look at that next, but I'm taking ages to write anything, so let's get this out now.


Ryogo ninja: I'm easily swayed by the way people act on the chopping block. I know this is bad for me and I know someday someone will exploit this, but in this position I really, really couldn't see why a theoretical scumSnow would act like he did. If the same thing happens in a later day I'll need to be harder hearted about it given that it's been seen to be successful, but I can't believe for an instant that he could have expected such a climb down to save him.

[Carthrat]

Hmm hmm.

I am still quite comfortable with lynching Snowfire. Sylon's flip does little to exonerate him in my eyes. Even under Snowfire's own logic earlier it's an optimal move for scum and town alike. The way he reacted to pressure over the vote was to spout out a chunk of WIFOMish non-reasoning, which seems to me as nothing more than a smokescreen. There was no reason to call Sylon townie before he died that I can see. :/

Xanth's post here - http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3132.msg55141#msg55141 - rings bells, since it provides a big ol' list of townies. In a large game like this presenting opinions on everyone is even more useless than usual. I like how his post was templated before he started writing it, nice! Seems like he's decided to write on everyone before knowing what to say. Looks.. fillery. Possibly.. scummy.

Kilga's lightly pinging me because of the way he favours scattering many short, prodding posts around. It's easy to ask throwaway questions. It's a pain if they don't go anywhere.

I don't see much reason to lynch Excal or Alex at this juncture. It's classy how DT links to posts where they're supposedly misrepresenting Snowfire, and I go to them and think 'actually this IS what happened pretty much as I saw it, too.' Snow hasn't really expanded his case on Excal, ever. Originally it was... 'excal's bad for talking about serious mafia' and 'excal's me-tooing', the former utterly trivial and the latter requiring some explanation, which has never come.

[SnowFire]

I've got it coming and going, I see.  From SirAlex: "too many walls of text even when under heavy attack," and from Carthrat "not enough!" Of which my sympathies are actually closer to SirAlex, really.  Look, I don't want to spend the entire night responding to Mafia, I feel the case against Excal and SirAlex has already been stated well enough by myself and others.  I suppose I could run to grab a bunch of quotes, but it's a Day1 case: Excal gives me a mild read of "inflame town with provocative posts, charge in and look heroically townie randomly."

Carthrat: Are you voting me because you think I'm suspicious and likely to be scum?  Or because I'm a neutral lynch and why not?  Yes, I've said that my actions could plausibly explained by a scummer trying to act towny (and apparently miserably failing!), but that goes for many actions that looks townie.  Meaning that it bounces back to neutral at worst.  Though obviously others have felt my actions weren't towny after all, so what do I know.

The main thing I felt I could be hit with was the Snow/Sylon scumteam theory, which has now panned out to nothing.

Sir Alex: Inclined to stay on Snow for expediency's sake
I don't expect I'll convince you on this one since I'm switching my vote to you, but for others...  I certainly hope that "expediency" isn't the reason used to vote me. After I got extremely flamed for my "expedient" vote of Xanth last night....  lynch trains can still change, even towards the end.  But only if you actually switch your vote.

Xanth: Fair enough comments on Meeple.  If I'm still alive tomorrow, it will be interesting to see what Meeple has to say...  I can very much see the "nervous to say anything due to the inherent uncertainty of a Day1 lynch," which is potentially scummy, but is also just potentially playstyle.

Anyway, it doesn't look likely to save me, but might as well do it now....

##UNVOTE: Excal
##VOTE: Sir Alex

[Ranmilia]

See the rest of the paragraph you refer to.  I'm about even on Bard/Tom/Snow.... Snow kinda looks worse than the others, though it's hard to really say precisely.  Expedience is the main reason for staying on Snow out of that pack rather than try to start something on Bard or Tom at this point in time.

[Xanth]

I actually can't find much of an offensive against Excal at all, just a brief thing from Tom about him and Alex picking on Snow (where I'm not sure why he opted for Excal over anyone else mentioned), and Snow commenting on a total of one paragraph, which (the paragraph) I see as pointed but not twisted in the way suggested.

Snow: as you're around and think the case has been made clear, can you either summarise it or point to posts that I've missed (can't deny the possibility at this point)?


Rat: they're just in sign up order, there's no 'big list of townies' (people are at best a neutral read of 'no [immediate] concerns' - Kilga was the only one I was close to saying had any sort of townie read - and I was actually worried that it would read like the opposite if anything, given how many people I felt I had at least vaguely notable concerns with for day one), the point was to stimulate whatever fresh paths there may be rather than just trod down the same few roads again, and go figure I wasn't completely sure how I was about to review any given player before I actually, you know, reviewed their posts. I did also expect the time to be considerably quieter and get the whole thing out roughly together rather than so annoyingly spread out, if that's making a difference for you.


Right, it's 2:20am here. Not sure how much more time I can really stay here for, especially given how my conscious is starting to drift and it's taking me forever and a day to get any given point written down.

[Carthrat]

No, I think you're scum because you were defending Sylon on flimsy reasoning to start. What his alignment actually was is immaterial- if he's scum, you defend a scumbuddy, if he's town, you 'buy cred'. The later justifications you used to reinforce your reasoning were, as I said, very WIFOMY and distraction-inducing, talking about optimum plays and why an action that can go either way somehow means you're townie.

Your later case on Excal doesn't have any real punch to it. In fact it's quite vauge. I can't find anyone worse-looking than you. So. Yeah.

[QuietRain]

VOTECOUNT

Yoshiken(0): Bardiche
Snowfire(6): Xanth, Snowfire, SirAlex, Excal, Kilgamayan, Carthrat, Xanth, Deltaflyer, EvilTom, Strago
Carthrat(0): OblivionKnight
OblivionKnight(0): Excal, Carthrat
Kilgamayan(0): Nietz
Sylon(0): SirAlex, EvilTom, Excal, Carthrat, Ryogo, Nietz
Deltaflyer2k8(1): Sylon, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Xanth(1): Kilgamayan, Meeplelard, Strago, SnowFire, EvilTom
Meeplelard(1): Bardiche, Xanth, Xanth
QuietRain (0): Ryogo
Ryogo (1): SnowFire, Nietz
Excal (1): SnowFire, EvilTom
SirAlex (3): Bardiche, Ryogo, SnowFire

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.  Deadline in about 4 and 1/2 hours. 

[SnowFire]

Sir Alex: Yeah, sorry about that.  Since I complained about you quoting me out of context before, that was slightly unfair, I'll grant (because I knew how you meant it).

Xanth: Looks like you can go to bed, I don't think a Meeple train will be starting and it looks doubtful I'll be saved at this point.

Carthrat: But...  that... doesn't make any sense.  Even a little.  I'm not sure where to start.  Memo to self: Never admit that scum might want to pretend to be town ever again, because this apparently equals an admission that your argument is all some kind of act?  Huh?

Obviously there's some kind of great disconnect of logic going on here.  Let's take it as a given that I genuinely think my logic is fine, and you think my logic sucked.  Right?
* From my perspective, my case is that of a loyal townie doing his duty to try and stop a bad lynch train.
* From your perspective, my case is that of either a stupid townie or a stupid scummer trying to appear town using what he thinks is a town argument.

I suppose it's better to lynch stupid townies than useful townies, but meh.  This is why I'm trying to at least argue my status back to neutral.

As for WIFOM nonsense...  it's Day 1.  I don't feel my logic was totally out of line, but we have little to work with, and I was being continually pressed on the point.  Apparently my attempts to justify myself only made my idea look worse from being too complicated.  Sigh.

Both Xanth and Carthrat, re the Excal case: I just went diving into the archives, and possibly you're right- I thought I or EvilTom wrote out a more detailed case against Excal somewhere, but maybe it got lost in the shuffle.  It's certainly been a chaotic enough day.  So I'll have to leave it at my vague impressions and OMGUS that I brought up before for suspected bad logic. 

Then again, I will do a trademark Pokemon Mafia SnowFire undercut myself: since so many people apparently bought the idea that my logic was irretrievably flawed, obviously something DID go wrong, whether in the logic itself or the presentation thereof.  Which to some degree lets Excal and SirAlex off the hook more, since it's obvious townies agree with this, and it's not a scumtell of "you're blatantly making stuff up."

Sigh.

[Kilgamayan]

This paid some dividends for Alex last night, and I'm planning on being up until deadline again tonight, so I can switch back if necessary.

##Unvote: Snowfire
##Vote: Bardiche

Bard never answered my question here (which is related to the first point I address to Bard here, which itself references Bard's chain of actions here and here). He also went after Xanth for not providing reasoning when making the NotMe vs. Me vote, of which Excal describes the absurdity here. These sorts of things make Bard look like he's picking at whatever he can get his hands on rather than actually trying to hunt.

I also dislike his Alex case, mostly because of what Alex has already discussed but also partly because of what I believe to be a bit of misrep in his third bullet point here regarding Alex - specifically in the "Alex himself acknowledged that it is a bad train" line which is not quite what Alex said when describing the Sylon train. He also goes on to represent Alex's charge against Sylon as pure inactivity which cannot be reasonably defensed, but Sylon had posted at that point and not only didn't contribute but directly stated that he wasn't prepared to contribute, and such controlled lurking is certainly worth a vote or two more than someone that simply hasn't shown up at all.

More to come (mostly on new developments), but I wanted to get this out for people to look at with what little time we have left.

[Kilgamayan]

Cut into the middle of my thinking: In rererereading Bard discussing why Xanth should have supplied reasoning with his NotMe over Me switch to SnowFire (in order to convince others to go to Snow with him), I realized that Bard is asking Xanth to continue the case he abandoned way back on Early Day 1™, which was...an Early Day 1™ case and not really meaningful in Day 1 crunchtime.

He also expected Xanth to provide this case rejuvenation while under pressure of deadline and votes, though Excal might've pointed this out already.

Back to reading.

[Kilgamayan]

Sure. I can answer this really quickly before I start my next post. What I meant by that was that Carthrat jumped on the train without giving a reason, other than "Sure, why not." I at least threw my own reasoning down on the table. I felt him suspicious because he had been lurking, and had been confirmed to have been on the forums frequently without defending himself from the votes put down on them. Even when the votes started to get serious. I was just saying Cat hadn't thrown any reasons down, and had ONLY said "all aboard the Sylon train woo woo!" at the time.

In fairness to Rat, it was the end of Page 1 (not Day 1, Page 1) when he made that vote. You didn't press Rat very hard when you first brought it up, though, so I'm content to accept this explanation.

However, as Nietz pointed out, your Alex-voting posts is a whole bunch of "me too!"s and other stuff more or less unrelated to the game, which is displeasing.

Kilgamayan: "Thou shalt not suffer scum to live" an' all that.
You're awfully certain I'm scum.

Cool misinterp, bro.

I was using that line to refer to Nietz's suggestion that, should you be scum, we should leave you be and let whatever scum faction you're not a part of take you out at night, and pointing out generally why that's a bad idea. In this case specifically, one only needs to realize that Nietz's suggestion involves town counting on scum to do their work for them, which can only end in disaster (and raises my hackles a bit with regards to Nietz). Among other reasons to trust scum to do our work for us, we have no guarantee either scum faction's best course of action is to get rid of the other scum faction ASAP.

Kilga's lightly pinging me because of the way he favours scattering many short, prodding posts around. It's easy to ask throwaway questions. It's a pain if they don't go anywhere.

I've been doing this because I've felt like I had solid votes down on people. It's more or less a sense of "this is my main case, now let me see what else is out there" in an attempt to avoid tunnel-vision. Most have not done a whole lot (like Ryogo's and Alex's*), but a couple got favorable reactions (Bard and Snow).

*I asked Alex what I did because I saw his Snow vote as a potential late-day focus diversion, which ScumSopko used (well, tried to) against Tom in AnonyRandom here and ScumMe used against ras in PC-98 at MotK. I realized after the fact that it wasn't Alex's case but Snowfire's meltdown in response that made me (and probably a few others) switch, so I ultimately didn't hold it against him.

[QuietRain]

Gate on QR's comp checking in.

Day closes in roughly two hours. As things stand, Snowfire is still in the lead with 5 votes.

[EvilTom]

Sory I disappeared earlier, the lecture ended and I had to leave. After that I didn't get net access until now.
Yeah, Alex and Excal were in the same boat for me, I went with Excal because he'd looked bad to me from the start (Alex only recently). But It's 6/3/1 and I shall now make it 6/4:
##Unvote,

People haven't taken the hint from my unvote-snow post. I shall now be blatant.

I believe very strongly that Snow is telling the truth, and my reasons are made of meta and role.
As such, I have unvoted him and am voting Alex, one of the two people that has doggedly pursued Snow since the beginning.
Alex's posts lack reasoning or evidence, or really any train of thought. They're full of grand sweeping statements designed to overcome all defenses.

Snow is still all over the place.  I'll admit outright I'm not reading those walls.  Not on day 1.  There just isn't enough going on.  (Yes, that comes with the caveat that all day 1 cases are bad, this is a given.) 

So you're not going to read his arguments, just kill him for defending himself?

Inclined to stay on Snow for expediency's sake  - WOTs are unhealthy for town, as is not voting the person you think scummiest, etc, see earlier.  The flailing has me in a bit of self doubt and I would probably support a move to Tom or Bard.... but then again just last game I let this very person off the hook for flailing day 1, but I was wrong and he was actually scum....  nah, no more passes on "too crazy to be scum."  Not in a two scumteam game like this one.

Expediency's sake? In other words - you don't think he's scum, but you want to lynch him because he's been "WOT-ing" (in other words, contributing a lot)? Isn't that more than a little hyppocritical - "as is not voting the person you think scummiest"?

##Vote Alex

Tom is kinda weird and I'm not so happy about his methods.  He's just come in, taken easily defensible positions without contributing much and left.

Uh yeah, I said the lecture was ending. Nothing I could do there.

I'm about even on Bard/Tom/Snow.... Snow kinda looks worse than the others, though it's hard to really say precisely.  Expedience is the main reason for staying on Snow out of that pack rather than try to start something on Bard or Tom at this point in time.

Wow, the three people who attack you are suddenly all scum candidates. If that's not an OMGUS...