PokeMafia - Day 4

[Ranmilia]

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh so is that an "I know Snow is town 100%" softclaim there or not?

Case stuff... you want reasoning?
- Did not vote for the player he found scummiest
- Pressed false dichotomy saying Xanth/Sylon were the only viable cases
- Walls of text on day 1, which are not contribution and in fact antitown

All three of these are very solid basis for a lynch, especially day 1 when there's nothing better going around.  I've been saying these things all the time.

As for expediency, go back and read the last page of posts, where even Snow himself manages to understand what I meant there and agree with it.  I find it really hard to take this seriously, and it's stuff like this that puts Tom in my suspicious camp himself. 

[Excal]

Alright, I'm back from work, but feel like shit.  So, I'm not going to be posting much tonight.

That said, Tom.  I do have an issue with your latest post.  See, I can see why Snowfire seems to feel that having the gall to vote for him is inherantly scummy.  It's a bad habit to get into, but he has confirmation.  But from you, it's somewhat baffling.  Especially since your little veiled commentary aside, you haven't been consistant.

Yesterday, you were perfectly happy to vote Snow simply to end the day faster, and speed up the inevitable.  But now you're claiming you have role information that he's not scum?  Forgive me for being somewhat suspicious of this given that there was no night.

[Ranmilia]

Actually there was a night 0.  I'd like to find out what Tom meant by that, as much as he can say?  (Although the "and meta" already has me questioning it)

I'm also a little confused as to why this is coming up now, an hour or so before the real deadline, and not yesterday?

[Kilgamayan]

##Unvote: Bardiche
##Vote: SnowFire

No one seems at all interested in my Bardiche case (not even the guy that said he would support a move to Bard!) and I do not believe Alex deserves to be lynched, so back my vote goes, for reasons cited about 24 hours ago.

[Excal]

Because yesterday his vote was on Snowfire putting him at L-1 before Xanth and Strago did their little shuffle.  That's why I'm finding the timing suspicious, since if he had info from Night 0, then why would he put Snow at L-1?

[Ranmilia]

Ho HO?
So he did.
Nice catch, carry on, I'll be voting Tom tomorrow I think.

[Kilgamayan]

Yeah that's quite interesting.

As long as I'm sitting here doing nothing but waiting I would really rather enjoy hearing Tom's explanation for this.

[Kilgamayan]

Kilga's lightly pinging me because of the way he favours scattering many short, prodding posts around. It's easy to ask throwaway questions. It's a pain if they don't go anywhere.

Revisiting this out of boredom to point out that the name of the game is "PokeMafia".

[EvilTom]

What's with all the wrong assumptions and blatant rolefish :\

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh so is that an "I know Snow is town 100%" softclaim there or not?

No it is not. I find it likely he is telling the truth about his role, based on my metagame reasoning.

Ho HO?
So he did.
Nice catch, carry on, I'll be voting Tom tomorrow I think.

I find it fascinating that Alex can quite literally go "Ho ho! Tom is scum, lynch him tomorrow!"

Alex is blatantly leaping around seeing what will stick.

[Kilgamayan]

And what say you to what Excal pointed out?

[Excal]

Tom, we ask because you're asking us to take you at face value.  This is an excellent thing to do, if we had any reason whatsoever to believe you are town as opposed to lying Scum.  Given that my best possible read of your actions sets you squarely at neutral, I have to look at the context.  And that context has you wanting to lynch Snow to end the day shortly after the extension, and now claiming you have role information that you feel says Snow is town for Meta reasons.

The evidence about how trustworthy you yourself are is suggesting taking you at face value is a bad idea.

[EvilTom]

Blatant misrepresentation. I never wanted to lynch snow.

If everyone is set on SF, I'm happy to move my vote onto him to speed up the inevitable. Shouldn't he claim then?

This was when Snow was at -2, Alex & co were complaining about the extension and nobody was willing to move away from the Snowtrain.
I never wanted to lynch snow.

Now, your "GOTCHA!" does not apply at all even if I did want to lynch him, because my metagame reasoning is based on his roleclaim combined with Sylon's flip.

This kind of reactionary aggression using misrepresentation to paint me in the worst light is all the more reason for me to believe Alex/Excal scum.

Anyway I must now leave, won't be back till after deadline. I hope Snow is not lynched.

[EvilTom]

...because my metagame reasoning is based on his roleclaim combined with Sylon's flip.

(which came after my vote)

[Kilgamayan]

Why did you vote Snow to L-1 if you did not want to lynch him?

[Kilgamayan]

Okay, I see a (ridiculous) explanation.

Why did you willingly give in to expediting the process of a lynch you disagreed with? This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[Excal]

Tom, you keep on using the word misrepresentation.  I disagree entirely.  The first time you used it, I simply chose to highlight the effect of the argument that was being made.  Was it what Snowfire meant?  Maybe, maybe not.  Was it what he was advocating?  Yes.

Same here.  You are asking us to believe that you never wanted to lynch Snowfire when you put him at -1 to Hammer, when you didn't even make more than a token effort at saving him.  Nor did you apparently breadcrumb whatever it is that you feel is so vital now so that you can point back and use that as something to bolster your claim.

All you do is say that you have a reason to believe Snowfire is town, that it is based off of your role, but not definatively proven by it, and that you won't tell us anything more about it so we can't judge the evidence for ourselves.

And then when we bring up reasons not to trust you, and ask you to provide reasons why you might be right, you call this behaviour scummy?

Forgive me for not wanting to blindly trust this.

[QuietRain]

*DEADLINE*

The morning started slowly, with the Pokemon feeling each other out and generally not making waves.  As the day wore on, though, sides began to form.  For most of the last portion of the day as dusk began to grow closer, two sides became clear front runners.  Many Pokemon thought that the Nosepass named Sylon’s silence was a sure indication of his secretive Team Magma leanings.  Others argued that the Castform called Xanth’s words clearly showed him to be the hidden Magma Pokemon.  It wasn’t until a loud voice rang out in support of staying up extra hours in search of the Magma pokemon that the other arguments stopped.  And the pokemon turned as one and began to question the loud voice.  The Linoon named SnowFire waged its tail in annoyance and tried again and again to convince his fellows of the need for more time, though they seemed unfazed by his reasoning.  And suspicious as well.  Linoons were hasty creatures.  They were swift and prone to quick thought and action.  Wanting to slow down and take his time?  Surely it meant he was hiding something, like being part of … TEAM MAGMA!  As one, they converged on him only to see him pass out and leave  no incriminating items in his belongings.  They slowly realized they’d been wrong.  The group retreated to their sleeping spaces and vowed to try again tomorrow.
   
SnowFire (Linoon) has been mass KO’d.  (Town aligned, One shot Tracker)

--------------------------------------

Night phase.  Please send in your night actions.  If you have the ability to do things at night but choose not to do them, make sure I have a PM to that effect.  Nights last a maximum of 24 hours, so the sooner I get all actions (or lack thereof) in, the faster the new day will start.

---------------------------------------

FINAL VOTECOUNT

Yoshiken(0): Bardiche
Snowfire(6): Xanth, Snowfire, SirAlex, Excal, Carthrat, Xanth, Deltaflyer, EvilTom, Strago, Kilgamayan, Kilgamayan
Carthrat(0): OblivionKnight
OblivionKnight(0): Excal, Carthrat
Kilgamayan(0): Nietz
Sylon(0): SirAlex, EvilTom, Excal, Carthrat, Ryogo, Nietz
Deltaflyer2k8(1): Sylon, Snowfire, Yoshiken
Xanth(1): Kilgamayan, Meeplelard, Strago, SnowFire, EvilTom
Meeplelard(1): Bardiche, Xanth, Xanth
QuietRain (0): Ryogo
Ryogo (1): SnowFire, Nietz
Excal (0): SnowFire, EvilTom
SirAlex (4): Bardiche, Ryogo, SnowFire, EvilTom
Bardiche (0): Kilgamayan

(Note from Gate: beg pardon if the final count is off somehow. I hate typing on laptops and am prone to mistakes on them. Jenna will fix any mistakes I've made when she gets to work tomorrow, I'm sure.)

[QuietRain]

The morning dawns quietly.  The bird Pokemon native to this island sing a soft and melancholy tune as the sun rises.  The Pokemon who awaken find themselves not one person short as they had feared, but THREE.  The Illumise, who had so longed to explore the island’s forests, seems to have been incapable of waiting to untangle the mystery first.  No trace of the small Illumise could be found, although many thought they could catch glimpses of him through the trees during the day.

Two other souls were not so lucky.   One was a strange Pokemon, a Baltoy who had stayed to himself mostly and only occasionally  involved himself in the conversation.  His unconscious form was found in his bed.  No incriminating things were found there to show he was a member of Team Magma, but it looked like it had been his home for a VERY, VERY long time.  The Pokemon were sure he had not come to the island with the Pokemon trainers to protect the temple.  He looked to be one of the island inhabitants instead.

The last Pokemon to be found was the sleepy-eyed Slakoth.  When he didn’t show up, many just thought he was being lazy as his kind were wont to do.  But he was eventually found unconscious near his sleeping pad, stretched out as if trying to flee something.  Among his things, the Pokemon found a baseball cap belonging to one of the deceased trainers.  They knew the Team Magma Pokemon had struck him down during the night.

The remaining Pokemon watched each other warily. 

Yoshiken (Illumise) has been self KO’d by Modkill per request. (Town aligned, One Shot Doc)
Carthrat (Baltoy) has been stealthily KO’d.  (Third party survivor, Omni Insane Bus Driver)
EvilTom (Slakoth) has been stealthily KO’d. (Town Aligned, One Shot Watcher)

Day Two starts now.  With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.  Please remember that any Modkills during the day phase end the day.

Also, please note that when the setup underwent it’s last change, the interest thread was not updated (I blame Gate for this one, the changes were his).  I have updated that thread.  A few roles were put in that were not on the list originally.

[Kilgamayan]

Tom being Tom, then.

Train thoughts:

- I still do not believe Alex is scum, especially since Sylon and SnowFire have both flipped town (what benefit did ScumAlex get from making those waves?). I suppose an Alex/Xanth team is possible, but it's not my #1 suspicion.
- I didn't really have a problem with Excal throughout the day yesterday and didn't even recall seeing a case against him despite a few people referring to it. Can someone summarize it for me?
- Delta's vote post is some me-too-ism combined with taking Snow's numbers post out of context (near as I can tell the numbers Snow used were mere examples based on the sentiments he felt he had expressed). He asks for explanations Snow had already provided (explanations I did not agree with but explanations nonetheless). This looks like a potential push-ahead vote. Completely disappears after this. Not pleased.
- Strago's voting reasons seem reasonably thought-out. Not a fan of "talk lots say little" posts though.

##Vote: Deltaflyer

I think the strikes against him are enough to push him ahead of Bard for me for now. I'd definitely like to hear from both though.

[Xanth]

Okay, so those deaths don't change my mind on:

##Vote: Meeple

For the exact same reasons as before, which still hasn't caught much interest. In no fewer than 11* posts and a fair wad of text in day one, the net value reads to me as 'minor [already since covered] reasons on Xanth, mild support for Snow, nothing on anyone else'. You know, I'm probably being slightly unfair and have quite possibly missed a relevant opinion somewhere in there, but the point is that the guy's talked a lot and said the least. I like in particular how his view on Alex does cartwheels in the space of one post without actually landing anywhere, and his back-tracking on Snow:

I don't see any significantly better targets, and as I said, I was willing to hammer if only to end the day if it came to that.

from:

Anyway, Snowfire's looking worse than what I initially thought for reasons people have been pointing out, though I can't say I feel confident about this...but its a day 1 lynch, confidence beyond some really big scum slip is going to be shakey.  So while I'm not moving my vote *NOW*, I'm declaring my intent to hammer him when I come back from school, if the day's still on.

Which really isn't the same thing, beating about the bush aside.

(*Yeah, I know there are at least several of us with more than that, and even possibly few with fewer, but the point is that he's far from the low word count lurking class)


Bard has looked increasingly worse with each time I read things over again during the night phase. His pressure on me really was overly demanding, which couples with the slow teasing rather than confrontation here that didn't produce a vote on me and the matter that at least much of what he pointed against me (previous link again, and here) was already clear to me and at least Kilga makes it read far more to me like just trying to get something to stick than genuine hunting. Same feeling from his case on Alex.


Kilga: I was going to try and separate the lurkers next, and yeah, I already had Delta ear-marked (here) before his additional disappearance, so I agree that he's almost certainly the worst of the bunch. The thing about the Excal case is that there doesn't really seem to be one (even Snow failed to find it on searching here), and now the two people pushing it - Snow and Tom - are both dead (not that I'm implying anything by that), so I'm not sure if it'll come up at all.

Kilga himself still reads as the strongest pro-town player. I have nothing much to say on Excal either.

I can't say my view on Alex has changed. The silence through much of the period between the 'deadline' and the deadline is a bit of a shame, but I can't see it as any worse than neutral given his position on both Snow and the extension.

Strago still seems fine to me after he broke the low content neutrality from early on, where he seemed a lot more guarded than is healthy. I don't blame him for his stance on Snow.

Which leaves Ryogo, OK and Nietz, who have all been non-present or under-the-radar in their own ways. OK doesn't really draw me so long as he now keeps it up, but Nietz in particular has few present thoughts, having been hard on Sylon for most of the day. Ryogo is... somewhere between the two, but with an additional hop-on vote for Alex and fluffy things like "Other people seem fairly townie to me right now" that make him read the worst of the three (but I don't think worse than Delta). Would very much like to here from all of them to untangle them further.

[Bardiche]

Wall of text incoming. Kilga stuff first.

Bard never answered my question here (which is related to the first point I address to Bard here, which itself references Bard's chain of actions here and here). He also went after Xanth for not providing reasoning when making the NotMe vs. Me vote, of which Excal describes the absurdity here. These sorts of things make Bard look like he's picking at whatever he can get his hands on rather than actually trying to hunt.

I didn't respond to your cursing about the extension? Jokes aside, I'll assume your linking is broken and just look at relevant nearby posts.

Why is inattention to the rules is the same sort of question as, 'Why is switching your vote around scummy?'. It is based on personal beliefs. Note that I continued on in the same breath about his wording that lynching Sylon for the sake of a lynch was not a good idea, but later relented it as I took his explanation as acceptable. I believe in Mafia it is common place to place votes on people you have suspicion on, or definitely want an answer from.

Why is it that you are so intent on defending Alex against me? Given that I have not pursued the Meeple case and never specified that my vote was a call for a lynch, I fail to see the relevance in bringing up the exchange with Meeple.

I also dislike his Alex case, mostly because of what Alex has already discussed

So do you agree mostly with what Alex has said, and you have no thoughts of your own regarding this? Or am I misreading that?

but also partly because of what I believe to be a bit of misrep in his third bullet point here regarding Alex - specifically in the "Alex himself acknowledged that it is a bad train" line which is not quite what Alex said when describing the Sylon train.

Alex said it was as bad a train as any Day 1 train -- this is acknowledgement that the train isn't that good. His continuous stressing of the Day1ness of his case does not sit well with me. That he later goes on to say "it's just as good as any Day 1 train" is a gross misconception, since there have been Day 1 trains with a much more solid basis and a much better result.

He also goes on to represent Alex's charge against Sylon as pure inactivity which cannot be reasonably defensed, but Sylon had posted at that point and not only didn't contribute but directly stated that he wasn't prepared to contribute, and such controlled lurking is certainly worth a vote or two more than someone that simply hasn't shown up at all.

Where in this post does Sylon directly state that he was not prepared to contribute?

------

Xanth's concern against me is mostly my push against him which reeks of OMGUS, so I won't bother with that.

However, you stress multiple times now that

I don't buy into Bard's case as I'm apparently expected to.

, outlining some reasons in this post. I already outlined here why the Day 1 train was bound to lead to failure as all such trains do, since it immediately forces someone in a defensive and it is hard to reasonably defend against whatever happened. At the time the Sylon train grew Sylon could only defend himself against the accusation of not having posted yet and being a random target, which no reasonable defense could possibly be mounted against.

--------

##VOTE: Sir Alex

In conjunction with my points raised earlier, as well as his attempts at pushing his lynchtarget through despite a majority requesting a deadline, false advertising of the extension as being useless,

I think this is pretty much ideal play for day 1

which seems to be that he thinks tunnel-visioning on Sylon, then voting Snowfire and doing nothing but focusing on Snowfire (and discrediting the extensions) is "ideal day 1 play".

I think that is rubbish play, absolutely useless. He's started the train, and then spent the rest of his posts quibbling about the votecount and extensions, and three hours before deadline argues why we should vote Snowfire. Right, because his initial vote on Snowfire ought've meant we'd all have to jump in.

I also don't like how he states that

it's scummier than anyone else to date by far.

, but this might just be picking at rhetoric. I don't think that stating it as a fact is fair at that point because others obviously disagreed. (me among them) Repeated here:

especially day 1 when there's nothing better going around

when there were better things going around.

Finally, his only other two cases are Tom and Me--and apparently me for my case on him? It isn't clear to me and if Alex could explain that, great!

I don't see why extending is a scum move, nor do I accept that my actions were a 'very easy scum stance to take', given that I wasn't just pretending to be some saint for not voting Snowfire and already said Snowfire was my third preferable target and I wouldn't be opposed to a hammer on him.

[Ranmilia]

Mmmmmmmmm.  Night's changed some of my views substantially, actually, though I'm not sure I want to say what just yet.  (Aside from Tom having been town, obviously.)

Bard's case on me is... well, I'll let it mostly speak for itself, since responding to Bard directly doesn't seem like it has a possibility of being fruitful.  Characterizing my position on the Sylon train as "tunnel vision," attacking me for starting on a weak case and then moving to one I felt stronger and sticking with it, and calling my play rubbish and useless...  aside from raising an eyebrow at the borderline incivility there, uh... yeah.  Folks other than Bard (and Bard if he calms down), let me know if there's anything I can help you with here.  The only thing I can actually read as a coherent accusation out of it is that I was anti-extension.  Which... is not scummy, neither position on the deadline ever was or ever has been or will be.

Bard, seriously.  The vehement wall of texting there is not helping anything.  I'm reconsidering things now and doing a lot of rereads in the wake of the flips, and for this moment I'm a bit less convinced that your play is scummy - but what is 100% guaranteed is that it is not an attitude that is helpful to town. 

With 11 alive, we're at 7-2-2 (assuming two teams of two scum, which I'm almost certain of now that we've seen a third party flip).  Barring a ton of scum crosskills or other shenanigans, we may already be in pseudo-LYLO in terms of having a chance to win.  It may just be psychological, but this is inclining my scumdar towards some of the people who have been sitting back watching the fur fly, so to speak.  I would REALLY like to hear more from Delta, Meeple, Ryogo, OK, Nietz, and Strago, in roughly that order.  Excal and Kilga are the only folks I don't really have a problem with at the moment.  Xanth... Xanth is special and I need to think about him some more. 

Don't have a solid vote at the moment - if I had to drop one it'd be on Bard, but past experience (recalling one game with Otter in particular) is getting me leery of going into slapfights with someone.

[Meeplelard]

I really don't get what Xanth's case on me is.  Cause I haven't been saying as much as I could in the amount of text I give?  I'm really not sure why that looks so scummy, especially on Day 1, where the best you can go on is gut feeling and whatever feels scummiest is really a long shot either way, barring some obvious points which most people are good at avoiding.

That said...

There is something I wanna bring up:
I have a one shot vig, which I'm willing to use 100% on the Town's Behalf.  True, by mentioning this, it means I'm a prime target for scum role blockers, if there are any, but I figure I should mention it as it means for one day/night we have 2 potential Lynches. 

I didn't use it last night cause its Day 1 and I didn't feel comfortable about sniping at anyone since I didn't really have any good leads based on Sylon or Snowfire flips; naturally, 3 more flips occurred, so that's something to work with, and I need to go back and look over posts regarding them.

Analysis coming up in a bit.  I figured I might as well toss something out on the table, as at least a potential tool for Town to take advantage of.

[Meeplelard]

Alright, going over posts again...much as I think this might seem "OMGUS!"...

##Vote: Xanth

My reasons?

First off, that early game play.  He slams Snowfire for something during a joke phase.  Alex at least went "Weird and unhelpful" or whatever his wording was.  He just listed it among his case on snowfire, which involved many points.  Believe he was also against that useless Wall of Text Snowfire had,which was at the very end of the Jokephase.

He later joins the Snowfire train...without giving much reason, I felt.  Just kind of says a few passing remarks, and that's it.  This part is out of order, but it ties in with the above.

There's the Delta stuff next, calling him "Uncivil" or whatever when Delta was being a bit facetious and even apologized; feels like painting a misleading Red X on someone.

Then he votes on me, in a way that seems like a smokescreened "OMGUS!" Combined with flimsly defending his reasons for going after Snow purely cause of a self joke-vote during the joke phase.

Then something else stood out to me.  He makes a big post outlying EVERYONE...but leaves a few people blank.  One such person is Snowfire, who he's voting.  By which I mean "Blank" I don't mean "Name left off the list" I mean something like:

Sir Alex: blah blah blah blah town read

Evil Tom: Blah blah blah blah neutral read

Snowfire:

Kilgamayan: Blah blah blah blah whatever

Why would he compile a huge list like that and leave blank names?  On one hand, I suppose he may have done this to show which characters he hasn't commented on, but someone else he did something like:

Name:
.
.
.
.

I'm really not sure I'm understanding this;; it feels like sloppy play from someone who isn't checking their own work.

And he keeps attacking me for not bringing up content, which I feel I have been doing.  So I don't have strong feelings on anyone; you shouldn't have particularly strong vibes on Day 1, due to its nature.  I felt unsure about anyone; you'll notice how wishy washy I was about Snowfire.   He had reached a point where I was willing to hammer him just to end the day, but I was never in a position to do so (when he was near hammering, I wasn't around, I believe, and when I was, a few people removed votes.)

For now, my vote is where it was on Day 1, on Xanth.  Yeah, he voted me, but I feel I have enough reasons to keep this vibe, where as I'm still not quite sure what Xanth's case on me is.

[Ranmilia]

NhohOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO why would you claim vig now why why why why why augh oh well

... anyhow

I think that claim's extremely believable, alleviates a lot of the gut concerns I had about Meeple, and I like his case as well.  A number of things about Xanth do not sit well with me, from his response to being one of the day 1 trains to his selection of Meeple as a case now.  His playstyle feels very methodical and base-covering without... really being contributive, I think in this setup sticking one's neck way out is a much more townie thing to do.  (Yes, even in the way Bard's done it...)

Some of the things Meeple cites I don't agree with, like the blank list and going to Snowfire, but the Delta/Xanth interaction is something that has fermented in my brain.  I'll go with it.

##Vote: Xanth