PokeMafia - Day 4

[Ranmilia]

Ah, well this is convenient.  Speaking of calling bullshit:

A.  I know exactly how many shots I have.  What I said - very clearly, or at least I thought so - was that I wasn't going to claim them, for reasons that should be quite obvious to anyone thinking from a town perspective.  So you didn't really read or think at all.

B.  My results just sense whether the target has sinister intent, ie town or scum.  No read on which scum team someone is on.  As is standard for the cop role.  Of course, a scum fakeclaiming (such as I think OK has just outed himself to be) might not think of this.

C.  ... directing the claimed vig, who is open to being blocked or killed or whatever'd by both scum teams?  And suggesting that the vig kill the guy you claim to know to be scum while you lynch Xanth anyway?  Really?  .....really?  

Also there's  the whole thing about where were you and you really couldn't spare the time to drop in and tell town you got a scum result or do anything with it... but you'll claim IRL issues there, whether or not it's true, so I guess that's moot.  But still.  

So this is scum OK coming in for a hail mary here to get some confusion and another free night for his scumteam going.  I guess all I can say there is thanks for tomorrow's lynch.  Obviously I know he's lying, the rest of y'all judge for yourselves, I'm here for some hours yet to answer any questions.

[OblivionKnight]

I checked Alex yesterday because of the fire levied from him at Snowfire. 

The comments made towards him and his play yesterday and today have echoed with me well.  He pushed a train yesterday, and kept pushing it.  He jumped on people for comments that seemed benign.  Also, as Alex said, "random + gut".  Nothing against the guy, but I am always wary of him.  He was someone with the 3rd most votes overall through the day.  The person he pushed a lot was town. 

I didn't inspect anyone night one.  I had only one shot of it, and wanted to make sure I had some stuff to go off of to decide who to investigate.  If Alex is a scum cop (which I am inclined to believe), then both our stories make sense.  Alex saying he has or had a cop power is a bit...off.  I understand why he would say that he's not providing it...but by saying he's a cop who may or may not have any shots left?  He's still attracting a night kill.  Why would any scum team take the chance?  If it's true, he's a confirmed townie to die, and one that's been active in conversation and pushing things.  That's still someone good to nuke.  By making that claim of you may or may not, you still leave the possibility that you do have additional shots remaining.  So yeah, not exactly safe.  I thought that through fine. 

If he had only one shot, he probably waited like I did to see who was who during the day.  Xanth could be scum, and on the other scum team. 

My role PM stated that I would know who's who because of the shirts worn.  It was in the info I got that you had a gigantic M on yours.  Don't make the assumption that I can't know what team someone is on because it's not "standard".  You should know very well that things don't have to be standard.

If Meeple claimed vig one-shot, he's dead tonight too.  Better use it as soon as possible for the town's good if we can.  I made a suggestion based upon cop information.  Town needs to use resources. 

[Ranmilia]

You mean you didn't inspect anyone night zero.

Leaving the question open of whether I had more shots or not is purely WIFOM to mess with the heads of scum trying to find good targets to kill.  There's no reason town needs to know that information right now. 

We're pokemon, not humans, so why are you investigating shirts?  Investigating the dead trainers?

The setup is semi-open, so yes, things do have to be fairly standard.  Cops being able to differentiate between the scum teams wouldn't be out of the question, mind.  But since I, yknow, am one, I know pretty well what I can and can't do, and I can't tell teams.  I also obviously know you're lying, sooo.  The rest of town basically has to weigh my word against yours here, and I'm pointing things out for their benefit. 

Also, according to the semi-open setup, there are no scum cops, only scum rolecops. 

What Meeple needs to do is try and use his role the best way he can.  Directing the vig is never, never a good idea, and I would like to point out again that you suggested directing him to kill me and lynch Xanth rather than the other way around, which is just "what" no matter how you look at it.

[Bardiche]

##UNVOTE: SirAlex
##VOTE: Xanth

If Alex is wrong we can lynch him tomorrow, OblivionKnight. As much as I have been pushing for his lynch, I am content for now to believe that he is, indeed, a cop who has, indeed, pointed us at scum. If he has (not), well, then the other scum team may kill him, Meeple can kill him or we'll lynch him the day after.

Do you guys mind if I put off the aforementioned promised responses until Day 3 or is it important that we first discuss that right now?

[Xanth]

Wait what.

I didn't have a problem with Alex, and I don't see what his angle is here as scum given that I'm not a miller (and assume he wouldn't be making this claim if he thought he might be insane?), but OK's claim likewise. Dare I ask how Rat's ability could affect any of this? I can roleclaim if desired given that I have already used my power (and breadcrumbed it pretty badly), but I don't see it making a difference to anyone.

##Vote: Alex because I can't see scumOK unless Alex is on the opposing scum team. Will think the mess through more if I don't hang in the meantime.

Meeple's case on me is still unfounded. I know the attention and weight has shifted just about totally off of it now, but I'll be frustrated if people use it to tip the balance of cop claim vs cop claim in favour of lynching me based on it.

Ninja: putting me to -1. Oh well. I still don't want to full roleclaim as it affects one of the players who hasn't posted yet, but I am a one-shot rolecop (expended), which I know doesn't help my case at all.

[Ranmilia]

Um

Happy as I am that Bard's vote is going on Xanth, I gotta point out, that's an awfully weird post there.  Unless you think there's a paranoid/insane cop in this setup, either myself or OK *and* Xanth are scum.  (NINJA- or Rat messed things up I guess) I personally find paranoid/insane in this setup unlikely to the point of unbelievability, since with two scum kills a night the fallout from a faulty cop would make it virtually impossible for town to win at all; this is why I haven't questioned my result. (NINJA - and I don't think Rat busdrove, see below)

I was going to say that post made me pretty certain Bard was scum #3 due to ignoring the OK/me duality, but in the course of typing this and thinking it over some more I'm not quite as sure since I guess he's mainly just saying to test my result and see what happens.  

Still, Bard, if you're town you may be dead tomorrow and we've scumhunting yet to do, so I would indeed love for you to continue posting.

Ninja:  Xanth... brings up a VERY good point about Rat's ability.  Personally I don't think he used it, just based on knowing Rat and knowing how much Rat hates bus driving (he was one in Smash Bros and hated it).  It is something to be considered, though.... 

... but regardless, according to the semiopen setup, there are no town rolecops.  Unless you extend cop (all varieties) to rolecop... which is a giant stretch to me given how the list is otherwise exhaustive and specifies things like lie detector for town and rolecop specifically as scum.  Soooooo I am pretty sure Xanth just literally claimed scum.

[Xanth]

Alex: I specifically asked QR about why rolecop wasn't in the town list, which is at least part of why the interest thread was updated from 'cop (all sanities)' to 'cop (all varieties)'. I'm sure she can verify that if you'd like.

[Ranmilia]

That would be useful, yes.  Bringing it up at all means it's most likely true, so strike that point.  Still want Xanth hung today, though, since as stated I don't believe Rat used his ability.  And even if he did, that removes the necessity of OK being scum, and... I'm back to seeing scumXanth anyway and agreeing with Meeple's case and the stuff I posted at the start of the day on him, which I found mainly because my result made me look for it, but holds together firmly enough for me regardless.

[Deltaflyer]

Hello guys, sorry for lurking. Computer troubles, and a lengthy visit to the doctor's for a viral infection have impeded my ability to get online, and I have tests all through monday-thursday. Damn I hate school sometimes.

Anyways.

Augh okay.  Facing a possible day end in 12ish hours, leading to a night with two scum kills... no, don't want that, so I'll go ahead and claim here.

I have or had a cop power, not saying how many shots.  Investigated Xanth, due to random + gut + having been "the other day 1 train".  Xanth is scum.

I did not claim this right off the bat today because I wanted to gather as many reactions as possible, given that we're facing two scumteams, and not just end the day with "Whelp let's lynch Xanth."  Wanted to claim it about halfway in.  Can't count on Ryogo showing up, though, which puts the effective deadline at a very inopportune time tomorrow... and I think we really need to lynch scum today.  So.

Bard's constant clashing with Xanth, along with memories of Otter and general vehemence, is what made me back off of him a bit here... though nothing stops him from being on the other scumteam, I guess.  But.  Xanth needs rope today.

Goddamnit. 

Bullshit Alex.

I didn't get back early enough to bread-crumb this, but...

I AM A COP

I call bullshit on this because I investigated YOU last night.  And you know what I found?  A big red M.  You are scum, Team Magma. 

I also call bullshit because you also mention that you don't know how many shots you have, while it was stated by the mod that there would be NOTHING hidden.  So yeah, nice try.

Of course, you could very well be a scum cop.  In which case, thanks for letting us know about Xanth, if that's the case. 

I highly suggest we lynch Alex.  Alternatively, Meeple, you still have the vig?  We could use it on Alex, then go for Xanth as a lynch.  Gets two kills in a day.  I think I do believe Alex may be a cop, but a scum cop - in which case, we now know what Xanth is, if he's to be believed.  Still, Alex is a sure bet.  He lied, based on the mod's notes.

##Vote: Alex

This is where all my thoughts get tangled up, so to speak. It reeks of WIFOM to me, in that OK could be lying, trying to draw Alex out, He could be telling the truth, and Alex really is scum (which is the result I am leaning towards) or, in one case, they are both telling the truth, and Xanth is well, f***ed.

You mean you didn't inspect anyone night zero.

Leaving the question open of whether I had more shots or not is purely WIFOM to mess with the heads of scum trying to find good targets to kill.  There's no reason town needs to know that information right now. 

We're pokemon, not humans, so why are you investigating shirts?  Investigating the dead trainers?

The setup is semi-open, so yes, things do have to be fairly standard.  Cops being able to differentiate between the scum teams wouldn't be out of the question, mind.  But since I, yknow, am one, I know pretty well what I can and can't do, and I can't tell teams.  I also obviously know you're lying, sooo.  The rest of town basically has to weigh my word against yours here, and I'm pointing things out for their benefit. 

What? Anyways. I do not see why cops being able to differentiate would be out of the question. Why would this be the case?

Just my initial thoughts. More to follow, probably some walls of text. Be warned.

[Meeplelard]

I'm honestly more inclined to believe Alex than OK.

Though, unless I'm mistaking, doesn't the rules of THIS GAME state "There are no hidden roles" or some such?  Forget the wording, but it implied that your role is exactly as the PM states, eg if you're a Cop, you're probably a standard one (not Paranoid, insane, etc.)

OK feels more suspicious to me at the moment for a number of reasons.  Alex has been taking part in Day 2, and then pretty much gave a good reason to explain why he's the Cop; Ryogo might get modkilled and end the day (though, does that mean the person with the plularity still gets lynched too?  Unsure how End Day Modkills work), and we've had very little discussion.

I keep my vote on Xanth now, since my earlier misgivings + Alex's claim.  I'm not inclined to believe OK's role at least until we get a flip on someone relevant at the moment either.

[Deltaflyer]

Oh, well, okay then.

##Unvote: Deltaflyer
##Vote: Xanth

As stated previously, a Delta/Xanth scum team would not surprise me in the least, so I expect to hop back over to Delta should Xanth flip as Alex has claimed he will.

You do not appear to have given a reason for this, can you explain?

Xanth, you say that you have expended your role-cop power:

Ninja: putting me to -1. Oh well. I still don't want to full roleclaim as it affects one of the players who hasn't posted yet, but I am a one-shot rolecop (expended), which I know doesn't help my case at all.

But whom did you use it on?

Reads on others:

Kilga and Bard:

Appear to have contributed lots, but from skimming, I have only seen real banter, not discussion. Probably due to the fact that everyone (including myself, sorry) was bunking off. I do wish to know your full arguement why me and Xanth would be a likely scumteam, because I have not seen it, unless you just said it on a whim.

Xanth is at -1. I say that we do not hammer him. yet. Until Strago and Nietz have said their pieces on the events of today. Essentially, I say we do hammer him before the modkill occurs, so that we take out two possible birds with one stone. Ryogo has been late and lurking and etc.etc. in two games now, honestly, without contribution he is better off gone.

OK made a rather astonishing claim which has (as I said prior) confused me. He has claimed cop also, and this early in the game, I see that as a slightly dumb move, even though it has produced discussion. I am undeicided between the two of them currently, as both are claiming cop, but I am leaning towards OK's arguement being better, as I think that scum would only do something like that, and directly challenge a townie, on a crazy gambit.

knowing Rat and knowing how much Rat hates bus driving

Bus Driving? Could you elaborate on this please? Sorry if I come across as a little dense, but I am unfamiliar with this.

To sum things up: FoS: Xanth

And Next will be my analysis of the happenings of day one. *sigh*

[Deltaflyer]

How long until modkill?

[Ranmilia]

To Delta:
- I didn't say cops being able to tell scum teams apart was beyond possibility.  From a neutral standpoint it is within possibility.  However, since I AM a cop, I happen to know that I cannot tell scum teams apart, so.  

- Bus Driving is a certain role that is able to switch around the targets of other people's night actions.  The traditional bus driver can pick two people per night, and they are switched for that night in terms of targeting - anyone who attempts to target one of them with a night action will actually affect the other.  Rat received this role in Smash Bros Mafia, a game that I modded, and expressed to me on several occasions his distaste for it.  In THIS game, his role seems to have been a special third party variant.  

I don't know exactly what it would do, but "Omni" and "Insane" are kind of scary adjectives.  My assumption is that it would affect many or even all night actions in some way, probably completely randomizing them?  Something like that?  Whatever it was, though, I don't think Rat actually triggered or used it.  I think if people's night actions had been messed with, we would have seen more obvious signs of it today.

We only have about 5 hours before Ryogo's modkill, and my understanding is that that will indeed end the day without any other lynch, so it is important to hammer Xanth before that time.  It's 9 AM here, which means 7 in QR-land, and I believe she said noon her time.

[Strago]

Hi guys! I'm alive! Argh I suck at not having life explode all in my face whenever I'm playing Mafia. Catching up with FURIOUS SPEED right now. Right this moment.

[Kilgamayan]

Meeple, can you dayvig? You might want to use it right now if so.

Delta: My reason for switching to Xanth is Alex's copclaim + scum-result-claim. I thought that was really obvious, given it happened in the post before.

[Strago]

Alright, this needs to be short as I have rehearsal in an hour. And obviously ending today with a Ryogo modkill helps nobody and... maybe puts us in weird LYLO in a way we're really not ready for? I dunno, always terrible at LYLO math.

Bardiche: I am totally skeeved out by his most recent post, somehow. What the frak, dude? The one guy you've been vehemently pushing for in a big way drops a cop claim and suddenly you're saying you trust him and doing some weird vig semi-direction all wrapped into it too? Bizarre, and given the doubts I had about your presentation of the case against Alex to begin with, I don't think I'd mind seeing you hand tomorrow. But we'll see.

AND BUT I'M CONFUSED, BECAUSE: Alex's ribbing of Bard for bad play and uncivil behavior (before the cop claim dropped, I believe) struck me as shit-stirring in the same way that Xanth v. Delta slightly did at the beginning of Day 1. So I just don't know what to freaking think anymore and still going back to my original proposal that we're looking at two opposing scums there.

Alex and OK. Criminy. OK was basically non-existent throughout the whole game so I have nothing to go on other than:

1. Mis-reading/deliberately misinterpreting Alex's comment about multiple Cop-uses comes across as yucky.
2. The thing about the "M," confirmation that Alex is apparently Magma instead of Aqua, which, sigh. Weird flavor, or a slightly-too-exuberant fakeclaim? I don't know!

I barely have a read on Xanth! He's just sort of vaguely there without any strong arguments. Which certainly could be scummy, for sure.

Dang it. Xanth's -1 to lynch, right? The more I think about it the more I think that it'd be foolish, given the modkill deadline we're looking at, not to test the veracity of our copclaim here. And, fuck me, if I had more time or thought we had more time in general I think I'd honestly push for lynching Alex or OK, but at this point I have to be out the door in twenty minutes. Crap.

Alright, announcing intent to hammer Xanth in the next twenty-ish minutes.

[Kilgamayan]

Mmm, looking at Meeple's claim it appears he's night-only.

[Deltaflyer]

Delta: My reason for switching to Xanth is Alex's copclaim + scum-result-claim. I thought that was really obvious, given it happened in the post before.

No... I asked you why you thought myself and Xanth were in a scumteam together and to show me the proof, not why you voted Xanth. Speaking of which, I will hammer Xanth after (if) you reply. I wanna hear this now, rather than wait.

[Strago]

Does that mean you're around to hammer Xanth if people want to get another 30 minutes or so of conversation in before modkill deadline, Delta? If people would prefer that, I'm happy to leave the sacred duty in your hands.

[Deltaflyer]

Yeah, of course.

[Strago]

Word to that.

[Ranmilia]

I am still here if people have things to ask.  Not really much else I can come up with on my own here given the situation.  Will be sleeping soon though.

Regarding Bard, I... thought I was trying to back off and get him to calm down as well?  And that it seemed to work and result in more rational behavior all around?  I'm really confused as to how Strago sees that as stirring things up more?  But that doesn't really lead anywhere argumentswise, probably more of an aftergame discussion note.

[Nietz]

Nietz, is someone else I'm vaguely interested in.  Mostly because he drops in, says something vaguely agreeable, and then drops out for a bit.  Never a whole lot at once, just in and out.  Not sure there's anything there, just want to mention him for now in order to remind myself he's still there.

Aw, give me a break... I posted early yesterday and kept waiting the whole day without anything showing up. Apparently this game moves faster while I'm asleep. I do admit that I tend to focus on the cases that interest me and try to be succinct about then.

Anyway, I have good reasons to be convinced Xanth is scum now. Namely:

Ninja: putting me to -1. Oh well. I still don't want to full roleclaim as it affects one of the players who hasn't posted yet, but I am a one-shot rolecop (expended), which I know doesn't help my case at all.

Since rolecop is in the setup as both a town and scum role, and that I am the town's rolecop (1-shot), I'm pretty sure he's the scum one.
Incidentally, Ryogo is a roleblocker.

I will have to leave now, so someone else will have to hammer.

[Kilgamayan]

Oh.

Delta: I believe you two could be a scum team on the grounds that the Early Day 1™ spat could have easily been a distancing tactic, your vote on Snowfire when the Xanth train was still within striking distance of the Snowfire train, and the complete lack of interaction between the two of you since that Early Day 1™ bit (except for Xanth mentioning you in the sequence where he discusses everyone).

There's also the fact that I think you're scum and we have a scum-claim by a cop-claim on Xanth.

[Deltaflyer]

I guess that seals it then. Kilga isn't on the actives list so-

Blarg- Kilganinja'd as I voted: Why do you think I am scum? If it is because of the long waiting times to get a reply off me, I believe I have fully explained that, and it will not happen again. Apart from school which is... yeah. Unavoidable.

You answer this and then I shall hammer, because the Nietz claim has sealed it for me.