PokeMafia - Day 4

[Deltaflyer]

Screw it: ##VOTE: Xanth.

Tell me tommorow Kilga.

[QuietRain]

Sorry folks, just woke up.

*Hammer*

The second day started quietly.  Too quietly.  All of the Pokemon sat and watched each other, only occassionaly sending out any feelers on who might be the Magma Pokemon they were searching for.  It wasn't until they realized that they seemed to have lost another Pokemon, a Swallot by the name of Ryogo, that they rallied themselves.  They argued intensively, trying to find the ones among them that didn't belong so they would be free to search for their missing target.  The gathered Pokemon were shocked by the words of a Shelgon named Alex who claimed to have heard a Magma pokemon talking during the night.  He pointed to the little Castform named Xanth as the culprit.  An Exploud immediately raised his voice, yelling that the Shelgon himself was a Magma Pokemon and not to be believed.  Despite some terpidition, the Pokemon gathered together and pummeled the SHelgon into the ground.  When they went to his sleeping spot to look around, they found a small scrap of cloth with a blue A on it.  The group was shocked.  Not only was Magma interested in the temple, but Aqua as well!  This was a most distressing turn of events.  At least they now knew b etter what they were facing.

Feeling confident, they gatahered around, searching for the missing Swallot.  They found him at the bottom of a small drop off.  Apparently he had wandered off on the night searching for some food and had fallen down, knocking himself unconcious.  Shaking their heads, the remaining Pokemon returned to their sleeping places to await another day to hopefully finish their search.
   
Xanth (Castform) has been mass KO’d.  (TEAM AQUA, One-Shot each of Hitman, Rolecop and Roleblocker)
Ryogo (Swallot) has been self-KO'd.  (Town Aligned, One-Shot Roleblocker)

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Night phase.  Please send in your night actions.  If you have the ability to do things at night but choose not to do them, make sure I have a PM to that effect.  Nights last a maximum of 24 hours, so the sooner I get all actions (or lack thereof) in, the faster the new day will start.

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FINAL VOTECOUNT
Deltaflyer (0): Kilgamayan
Meepleard (0): Xanth
SirAlex (2): Bardiche, OblivionKnight, Xanth
Xanth (6): Meepleard, SirAlex, Kilgamayan, Excal, Bardiche, Deltaflyer
Ryogo (1): Nietz

[QuietRain]

The Pokemon awoke on the third morning to the sounds of struggle.  By the time they reached the sleeping space of the poor Delkatty, it was quite knocked out.  The bed showed signs of a struggle, but no real indication of who among them had done the deed.  As they walked back to the opening in front of the temple to begin the third day, they came across another vicitim of the night.  The large body of the Hariyama blocked the pathway to the temple.  No more could be seen in the area to tell who the killer had been.

Disheartened, the Pokemon travelled on to the temple and began again.

Bardiche (Delkatty) has been stealithy KO'd. (Town-Aligned, One-Shot Doc)
Strago ((Hariyama) has been stealithy KO'd.  (Town-Aligned.  One-Shot Bodyguard)

Day Three starts now.  With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.  Please remember that any Modkills during the day phase end the day.

POSSIBLE LYLO has been reached.

[Nietz]

Oh well...

After Xanth's flip, I'm much inclined to believe that SirAlex is Team Magma's JOAT, and found out Xanth by his role description rather than alignment.
No idea about his partner, though I also suspect Delta of being Xanth's buddy.

[Meeplelard]

Ok, I used my Vig and...it didn't work, so I'm guessing I hit a bullet proof person or they got protected (possibly by Strago, which means we'll never know?).  I used it on OK cause my suspicions regarding his claim on Alex...well, yeah, they didn't sit right, especially after the Xanth flip.  Since we're in LYLO, might as well full Roleclaim:

I'm Manectric.  Something like my Trainer was a skilled assassin, and hired to help take out Team Aqua and Magma, and I picked up a few of his tricks along the way, hence the Vig skills.  I can't say much more beyond that though.

[Ranmilia]

So, easy call today... for me.

##Vote: OK

Meeple's story is consistent with OK pulling this out as a godfather to try and get me lynched, and Nietz helpfully indicates why it was a nice attempt for OK to do so.  But no dice.  Fortunately there's a nice way to prove this.

- Strago (and/or Bard?) had no reason to protect OK last night, since to them he was either A. scum or B. town telling the truth about me, in which case OK getting NK'd would actually be helpful and confirm his claim.

- For the people who are neither Meeple nor myself, this involves having to trust Meeple.  I myself know OK is lying, but I additionally trust Meeple because he claimed vig out of nowhere.  I can't see him pulling that out as scum. 

[Kilgamayan]

Roleclaim: Mighteyena. I'm a one-shot roleblocker, which is already used (touched Bardiche Night 1).

Delta: I think you are scum for train-related reasons outlined here as well as the scumdar ping described here.

General thoughts: I'm...not sure how I want to proceed today. Alex makes a good point about Meeple's early claim making it believable...but I sort of want to lynch Delta over either of Alex or OK in order to cut down the NKs per night to 1 (assuming Delta is indeed Xanth's partner). I'm going to need to think about it.

[Ranmilia]

Aside from that, I'd like to note that I think there's a strong possibility of Nietz being a Magma rolecop/JOAT/whatever, on the sheer strength of his back to back posts going "Oh I'm town rolecop so Xanth's scum rolecop" and then "Whoops I guess there's another scum rolecop after all, it's Alex!"   Not a sure thing, but the turnaround there is astounding.  

Ninja - Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat

We just had a town roleblocker flip, and Kilga is sure enough on Delta being Xanth's partner to override the certainty that either OK or myself is scum?  Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat. 

I don't even know anymore.

[Meeplelard]

Because this is LYLO, I'm a bit shaky on putting votes, but yeah, I'm definitely not liking OK.  If he's a Godfather, then that would explain why he survived the Vig, and I expect he was on Team Magma, since he probably sent out his scum buddy to kill.

##FoS: OK

I want to hear him speak before acting.

Alex, OOC, could you full roleclaim?  This is LYLO, after all; simply saying "Cop" is good from before, but I'd like to hear the full thing.

[Kilgamayan]

Alex: I haven't fully run the numbers in my head yet regarding 2 Magma vs. 1 Magma and 1 Aqua going into tonight, and the problem with even doing that is trying to gauge who the 1 Magma and 1 Aqua are and then guessing how urgent they think offing the other party is (and THEN trying to actually guess the other party correctly).

If neither off the other, then we're at 1M/1A/2T which is basically impossible for town to win. If one of them offs the other, then we're at 1S/3T LYLO, which I believe MS calculated to have worse vacuum odds of town winning than 2S/3T. Then they could off each other which would be very nice but highly unlikely.

...Writing it all out like that and looking at it, I must say I'm leaning back toward picking between the two of you.

Also I really hope you're not using setup-meta to question your opinion of me.

[Ranmilia]

No, I'm using the classic "ignores a copclaim duality" scumtell to question my opinion of you, Kilga.  >_>  For all that it's not as applicable in this setup... it's... uh... still pretty applicable. 

Full claim, sure.  I am Shelgon, prevolution of Salamence, my pure hearted wish to fly in the sky lets me Detect whether the hearts of others are pure or not, but only once.  One shot cop. 

[Kilgamayan]

Then why bother bringing up the roleblocker flip?

[Kilgamayan]

I'll also be totally honest and say that I have zero confidence in my decision-making skills right now, since Bard, Snow and Strago have all flipped town and I'm presented with a very real possibility that you are scum.

I'm not ignoring the copclaim duality so much as worried that whatever decision I make will be wrong given how much I've already been wrong this game.

[Ranmilia]

Was just one of the first things that came to mind.  Realized a bit after that it was poor setup meta, but... even so I find the claim a little suspicious.

If you're so worried about making the wrong decision and not trusting yourself why are you even contemplating Delta?  That does not really seem to make any sense, since that case requires you to be trusting yourself to have identified him as not only scum but Xanth's partner, and to be confident in this above the duality guarantee.

[Kilgamayan]

I'm not entirely sure, but I'd guess it's because it's the path of least resistance.

Which isn't really a good town thing to do, is it? Now that I think about it.

I'll give OK a chance to post before I make a decision on which of you I should vote for, but I will vote for one of you.

[Excal]

Alright, we might be at LYLO, but at least we've drawn first blood.

Now, on to the main event.  I like what Alex has done.  He's been a busy and helpful bee, having been the guy that nabbed our first scum for us.  Not to mention that there's been exactly three times when OK's been active.  One joke vote, some decent, if utterly ineffectual stuff after the Day 1 Extension, and when he pulled out his cop claim last night.  However, I find myself leaning towards believing OK.

The reasoning is pretty simple really.  We had two protective roles go down last night.  Either one of them could have given us the exact same effect that Meeple got as would Godfather OK.  Toss in the fact that I don't see any benefit for OK in this.  We know the roles don't lie, and if your sanity is in question, you'll be told that it's in question.  OK seemed very sure that he was sane.  So, I doubt there'd be any point whatsoever in Magma bussing Magma like that.  After all, all that gets them is somebody with nicely confirmed town cred, and a member of the other scum faction happy to take them out.  So, OK can't come out of nowhere and save his buddy with that claim as it just ties him to his scumbuddy if he actually manages to get the kill.  Unless he manages to get lucky, and it turns out that Alex is, in fact, Magma.

So, I'll toss out a ##FoS: Alex because town OK looks a lot liklier than scum OK from where I'm sitting.

[Deltaflyer]

I am in Kilga's position also. I am on the fence, regarding the whole cop/cop fiasco. I do not currently know who to vote for, but Alex seems slightly more... I don't know. Real? Leaning towards a ScumOK lynch here, but (assuming there is more) who else is anyone's guess. Holding my vote for now.

[Ranmilia]

I'm not really sure I understand what you're saying there, Excal?

Re: town protective roles, see my first post today.  Someone who is claiming one shot cop with a scum result on someone who isn't dead yet is the absolute last person any protective role would go for, because even if they're telling the truth, that person being NK'd is still helpful to town since it confirms their claimed result.  Not to mention in this particular case Meeple was around and likely to use his vig on either myself or OK to clear up the duality.  Strago and Bard are smart folks, I don't think there's any way they wouldn't realize this and I don't think there's any way whatsoever they'd protect OK.

Re: Who OK is and the benefit he gained from this?  I agree that he isn't Xanth's buddy, that wouldn't make sense.  Pretty sure he's Magma Godfather.  The benefit he gained from claiming yesterday is trying to set up for a lynch on me today.  He had to know perfectly well that town would probably lynch Xanth yesterday despite his claim - in fact he called for exactly that, painting me as a "scum cop" and asking for a Xanth lynch and Meeple to try to kill me.  That'd be win/win for him, since either Meeple kills me with his vig shot, or tries to hit OK instead.  If Meeple kills me, great, he got the vig to kill the result-producing cop, if he tries to kill OK, that's fine too, he'd live through it and still be able to argue for my lynch today.

Of course, in either of these situations, OK himself gets quicklynched after I die and he's exposed as a liar.  But that doesn't matter to him because at that point the damage is done - Meeple's shot is used, Aqua's lost a member, and the cop who exposed Aqua is down.  Remember, this is potential LYLO - Magma could win outright if they managed to lynch me today, and even if they didn't and OK was lynched afterwards (or I was Meeplevigged and OK was lynched today), their surviving member would get multiple rounds of free kills and be in a vastly advantageous position.  This is a very ambitious bid by Magma to gain ground.  OK's periods of absence are likely real, due to his job and life... and that's probably exactly why they chose to use this play with him.  

[Excal]

Alex, I like to think I'm decently bright, and I can see a argument to be made as to whether it's worth killing possible town in order to make sure we only need one day to lynch.  Or, more importantly, if they assumed the scum wouldn't take the risk on town guessing right and just decided to guard him against that possibility.  Hell, do the math and it's easy to see that if the scum didn't decide to help us, or Meeple guessed wrong and we'd be in LYLO now.  So, why help put us further behind in this situation?  So, no, I'm not so convinced that OK wasn't under protection.

That said, I didn't think about Team Magma wanting to jump in here.  And I can see them pulling off a trick like that.  Seems a bit risky, but definatly dividends there if done right.  And, yeah, they hit three townies tonight, or Aqua, and it's a game.  Not sure how I see it playing out just yet, but I'm going to sit on the fence until I see how OK replies at least.

[Nietz]

Well I'm not so sure about Alex anymore after Meeple's claim of shooting OK. I guess I'll wait to hear what he has to say.
I'm still leaning more towards Alex because I don't entirely buy his reasons for investigating Xanth when he was so openly against Tom at the end of Day 1.
Kilga's claim as second town roleblocker is weird, though I just can't see what he would gain from it if he was scum.
 

[Ranmilia]

That's simple enough - I only had the one shot.  Why waste it on Tom, a high profile player who'd already made such a huge gaffe?  Not only did I consider him scummy enough to not be worth it (sadly wrong, but blargh), if I used it on Tom it'd either be a waste if he was in fact scum, or a messy situation when I would have to roleclaim and back away from him the next day.  In addition, he was high profile enough that other players might/probably would decide to do things to him themselves.  Which indeed happened, though not from the town side.  >_>

I already had an inkling from the other flips at that point that the whole game was going to be full of oneshots, so I went for a target that I hoped would do more good than just the almost-surely-scum-to-me-at-the-time problem of the moment. 

And hey, it did work out, so.

[QuietRain]

VOTECOUNT

OblivionKnight (1) : SirAlex

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.   Deadline in 30 1/2 hours.

POSSIBLE LYLO has been reached.

[Meeplelard]

The thing that makes me leerey about OK (compared to Alex) is that Alex has been actually consistently active, where as OK has been kind of hanging back the entire game, and popping in.  RL Issues, maybe, but still...

I mean, from what I saw, it was basically the few people speaking on Day 2, which wasn't a lot, but still there was some discussion.  Alex was one of those people, and trying to promote discussion.  He claims Cop, exclaiming he doesn't want to see the day end due to a Modkill, and his cop-claim came true, so he has some credit thre.

OK though?  comes out of nowhere, counter claims Cop and states "You are scum Alex!"  He didn't do anything before that, from my recollection (gonna go back and check through Day 2, but given how Day 2 went, I don't think he said anything), and he even twisted Alex's words through this:

What Alex said: I have cop powers; I am not revealing how many shots I have left, if any, and I already used one.
What OK claimed Alex said: Alex claims to not know how many shots he has left, which goes against the "No Hidden Roles!" aspect.

He tried using that argument AGAINST Alex even, claiming the Cop Claim was suspicious since Alex "didn't know how many uses he had" but that's not what Alex said; Alex clearly stated (I read the line myself recently, mind) that he has x amount of shots, but he isn't revealing what x is.

This is why OK feels off.  He comes out of nowhere to counter-claim Cop, claiming the Cop is scum, and used a "He sees Shirts!" excuse too, not quite explaining how that works (we're Pokemon, after all, we don't wear shirts!), and he contributed nothing else that day beyond that claim.  Alex was contributing throughout the day.  And Xanth's flip did in fact hold true to Alex's claim, so Alex does have some credibility there.

I'm thinking "OK is a God Father" is a very likely scenario, which would explain why he didn't die to my Vig, though its possible he merely got protected as well; I really don't know though.   I just really don't like how OK looks, basically, and were it not LYLO, I'd vote him now.

[Kilgamayan]

24 hours, no OK, and Meeple makes some good points.

##Vote: OblivionKnight

[Meeplelard]

I don't know if I'm gonna have a chance to do this later or not, given my current situation with the computer and all that so...yeah, we're running out of time, I might as well just vote for him NOW, and bite the bullet.

##Vote: Oblivionknight

That should put OK at -1 to hammer.