Touhou Mafia - Main Topic

[QuietRain]

And idly, the problem with a hugely delayed counterclaim is that it allows misinformation to spread and become harder to get yourself accepted as the proper cop. It also means you can start playing the protection game as well as quite likely take out a scum in the process. In other words, if you can generally get scum killed, you should. We win with exchanges and what have you.

But generally, my point was there was no proof to the contrary that Tom was NOT cop. Even if we assume he is the worst player alive (not saying you are man, just making an exaggerated point), as cop, he is still useful, especially since, as a revealed cop, there is no reason for him not to post his investigations each day, which give us something to go off when he invariably flips.

To touch on this, My thoughts were laid out yesterday quite thuroughly, but as it's Day 2, I'll go ahead and lay them out again.

I had a few choices in my mind about things:

A)Tom is scum and lying through his teeth not to be killed
B)Tom is scum and is a rolecop hoping to use this ability as a smokescreen
C)Tom is town & a cop
D)Tom is town and not a cop.

Now, if I assume A or B, a lynch is my best option.  If I assume C, lynching is a BAD BAD option.  If I assume D...then my thoughts were that I could not trust a word he said from that point out.  He lies once, I will assume anything he said from that point was probably a lie.

So, 2 options to lynch, 1 option to let live and 1 option to let him live but totally discount him the rest of the game.  Everyone knows it, Day 1 lynch is a CR**SHOOT.  The fact that we ever get scum is pretty damned amazing on Day 1.  Why should I give up my vote on someone who is acting SCUMMY to vote on someone I don't see as acting SCUMMY when I am trying to lynch SCUM?  Are we playing the same game here?  I dearly hope so.  In the Mafia game *I* am playing, we're trying to kill scum, not random people who don't shout out to not kill them because they have a power role.

Now, am I glad I was right?  You betcha.  Am I surprised he lied?  Honestly, a bit, but more sad and disappointed.  Town should not lie.  But Tom was acting scummy and I didn't believe his claim.  I kept my vote because I didn't believe him.

Now, I would like from you, Andrew, is your reasoning why the fact that I did not believe Tom makes me scummy.  Because that's where your Votes should go, to scum.  You voted me, so please give me some details on what I have done that makes you think I'm scum.  Is keeping my vote on Tom on the basis that I did not believe what actually turned out to be a lie the only thing or is there more?

NOW, extra note: Gate & I will be tabletopping tonight, so I won't get a chance to respond until the morning, but I will be happy to go over anything any has in regards to this.  I also intend to do a very thurough look at Day 1 voting and what little Day 2 voting has gone on and see where my analysis takes me.

[VySaika]

Since you asked, Smodge, I want your thoughts on patchcloud. I also want your thoughts on the strago endtrain, particularly Chisa, Cid, and Andrew. Same goes for anyone else looking for something to talk about, really.

Well, I'm not Smodge, but I am an anyone else, so I'll take a stab at this, sure.

My thoughts on Patchy...are that she got highly defensive at the end of day 1 before there was even any real pressure on her, which looks rather bad. What looks even more odd though is that she does have serious pressure on her now and seems actually LESS defensive then she was in that huge End Of Day 1 Rant. I'm...really not sure what to make of that. It just doesn't click for me how someone would suddenly be very defensive under very little pressure and now seeming just mildly irritated under alot more. I'm leaving my vote on her because, well, Rat already said it. Long Ranty Post =/= town tell. It's not a scum tell in and of itself either, but combine the Long Ranty Post with the blind hammer, the self contradiction in that post, and the defensiveness while under minimal pressure all roll together to make something just not add up about her.

To look more closely, the pressure she was under was: an Andy vote to get her to vote for someone, and a vote from Shale saying she was kinda lurkerish and hadn't done much of anything. That's...it. In her defensive post, she took Shale's lines way harder then was reasonable which doesn't sit well with me.

As for the end of the Strago train, hell I was on it too. It really seemed like the best thing to do at the time, and yes, I voted for Strago because if Tom wasn't lying he needed the chance to do something, and if he was, he'd end up hanging himself as he couldn't fool town forever. Also, Andy threatened to flat out Stop The Lynch on Tom...and you know what? Him, I believe. You don't make a threat like that unless you can back it up. Voting for Tom after that, and making him do whatever it is he can do to stop that strikes me as something that likely wouldn't be in Town's best interest. And that's all the "speculation"(as I'm sure someone is going to call it that) on Andy and any powers he may or may not have I'm going to do.

Now on the specific people you asked for...

Chisa: Not seeing anything too odd with her(him? it? whatever). Probably has one of the better reasons for the flip/flop in finding a hole in the logic that she initially used to vote Tom for. I don't see finding holes in your own previous arguements and then acting on said holes to be a particularly scummy thing to do. Now finding flaws in your logic but holding on for dear life anyway would get my attention, but that's not what she did now is it? Chisa looks no worse than anyone else to me.

Cid: I had to go back and reread what exactly he said a couple of times, as I couldn't remember the reasoning he used off the top of my head. That's a bit of a red flag in and of itself because it's people like that I'll easily end up overlooking and overlooking anyone is bad. However, reading back it's simply because I don't really see anything in his posts that's odd. Maybe because that's he's mirroring my own thoughts on the whole "we need to make a lynch" line, but I really don't see anything overly odd about him.

Andrew: Andrew was consistant in his defense of Tom, and voted first for Patchu to make her vote, and then moved to Strago after makeing the aforementioned threat when he felt there was no more time. Andy also seems fine. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that I'm getting a town read on him, wheras it's just a non-negative read on the others.

Really, the only Strago voters I do feel negatively about are Patchy and Nitori. Patchy for reasons mentioned above, and Nitori...well, he ALWAYS seems to rub me the wrong way. Lurkerness, me-too posts, etc. The usual Nitori stuff that everyone gets on him for. (Note: just because it's Usual Nitori Behavior doesn't mean I'm giving him a pass. If Mia didn't look worse, I'd be voting for the kappa right now)

And to clarify, I am NOT voting for Mia because of her Strago vote. It's because of inconsistancy, blind hammering, and getting defensive over pretty much nothing that's getting my vote.

And another note, am I the only one who can't remember anything Smodge has posted lately that wasn't just a promise to come back and post more later? At the moment, I'm willing to wait for the later, but your next post had better have content and not be just another IOU post, alright man?

Anyway, gaming with the wifey one tonight. I'll check back in tomorrow morning.

[Halbarad]

Okay. Sorry for long delay in posting, but I have had major doujin editing project appear (and one I want to work on a lot), so last night and most of this morning was occupied with that. Feel free to check out http://voile.gensokyo.org/res/3540.html and posting times if you want verification on that.

Afternoon today was weekly Spinvasion by Alex, during which not much really happens aside from lots of gaming and such.

So! Now that I have explained my absence, time to actually post some content.

First: In regards to keeping my post on Tom despite the cop claim? As I said in my original post after he claimed, I didn't believe he was the cop at all, mostly because I didn't (want to) believe that he would be stupid enough as a cop to draw -that- much negative attention to himself day one. I did not post to defend this after Alex and Andrew's comments because I don't take "rules" like "never hammer a day 1 cop claim!" as absolute law. Since I didn't buy the claim in the first place, I saw no reason to reverse my vote - as far as I was concerned, there wasn't a valid cop claim made by Tom, so there was no reason not to keep him pressured.

Now, in regards to day 2 stuff:

Beansproutcloud: Honestly, gives me a fried townie vibe; kinda because I've been in that position myself. I'll agree that she is not doing stuff that helps her case in the slightest; the ranty,careless hammer on day 1 and subsequent emotional defenses aren't exactly a positive thing. It's the same kind of thing I came down on Tom for yesterday - overreacting to accusations.

Note to mia: Yes, it can be hard not to take Mafia personally. Do try not to though, as the kind of emotional overreaction that we've seen in the rant, and in snatches over the course of today, are exactly the same thing we were all coming down on Tom for yesterday. Take a deep breath, remind yourself that it's only a game, and do your best to help the town, if you are indeed town.

That said, I'm not going to vote for Patchu, although I can certainly understand doing so; I can't ask anyone else to trust my gut. I shall definitely be eating my words if she flips scum, though.

Will post more on other things I see outstanding in a few minutes; wanted to get something out here first - and on the day's primary issue - before I go with the mile-long post.

[Tonfa]

Thanks for clearing everything up. Now then, to do some reading.

And I do have one question before I go the gym. How is forgetting a vote suspicious? I had six pages of posting to catch up on, with very little in the way of vote counts. Obviously my own posts aren't my focus, so it is quite possible to forget I made another vote at some point.

Uh...the attitude is somewhat alarming, really. Votes are town's only real weapon to win this game. So yes, forgetting your own vote is suspicious, because it hints at not caring about who you lynch (and on pure random mode, town WILL lose) and/or the game in general.

patchcloud: A lot of text today. -All- of it is self-defense of some kind. This...strikes me as really bad. Any thoughts on not!you, by any chance?

Shale: Has dropped quite a few oneliners today. Would like to see something more substantial.

Pressure ##VOTE: Shale.

[Tonfa]

Oh, I almost forgot Tai was playing, and is actually around at this time. Would like to see something, the only post of day 2 thus far has been a day 1 recoil post.

[Halbarad]

Okay. Notes on folks who seem suspicious to me at the moment (the lurk is strong with both of them):

Tonfa: Has been very low on content so far.

• Three posts in the jokevote phase, one to vote Chisa, one to retract, and one for annoyance at Smodge's grammar. Null read on these.
• First serious reply is 173, where he reverses on Smodge and shifts to Tom to "cut loose the argument" - no comment on any of Tom's actual actions to that point.
• 210, again posts no content - states his refusal to shift vote on Tom, cites there being "no way to test its believability" (seems weak to me; I didn't shift my vote either, but I've baldly stated that I didn't believe the claim in the first place). If completely uncertain about the claim, it does seem to me that it'd be safer to err on the side of caution here - and shift the vote off Tom.
• 278, states his intention to hammer Strago since the Tom train was going nowhere fast. Doesn't make any assertions about Strago's guilt or innocence (although admittedly this is after Strago flipped), but it would have helped to know -why- he was planning to vote Strago other than "just to get the day over with".
• 282, finally generates a post with some length to it, although I don't see much original content. Calls out Patchy for unaware hammer etc., basically echoing the heavy hammering my shikigami has been delivering on that topic (##LOVE: Ran). Comments on Andy getting cranky over votes during sleep phase (mmm, sleep~), says "town vibe" but doesn't really back that up much. Only other comment is on how being "neutral but sticking to a vote" makes sense; I'll venture an answer in that it's because you never actually volunteered a clear opinion on that vote.
• 328/329, which came in as I wrote this! Asks for more info from Andy re: forgetting his vote, pokes mia for more content about people not herself, drops a pressure vote on Shale, and requests content from Tai. Still not volunteering anything new. Calling out Andy here seems the oddest to me, given that he got a "townie vibe" from Andrew earlier. Analysis does change as the game progresses, but the lack of any content at all strikes me as off.

In short? I haven't seen him do anything BUT agree with existing cases without adding to them, and seems to be playing very, very cautiously in general.

Andrew: It's a small point, but one that seems disturbing now as I review:
Reply 222: You make the point that we end up with either dead scum or dead cop for lynching Tom; you didn't even consider the case that Tom could be lying as a townie. To top that off, in the very same post you make the point that no one has counterclaimed Tom; I'm half wondering if this was to encourage a counterclaim on the suspicion that Tom might have been lying as  townie? If you're scum, you knew he was town; this strikes me as a concealed way of fishing for further roles.

Andrew, can you explain this further, please?

In the meantime, ##VOTE: Tonfa for me. Definitely looks very lurkerish and scummy at the moment; it's quite possible that this will get entirely overlooked in the beansprout bonanza today, but I'd like to get it laid out there as an alternative case for review.

[Otter]

On gutclaims: I'm so sick of seeing these. They're impossible to discuss, pointless to put out, and make it look like you're thinking when you may well not be. Unfortunately they seem to be a common thing in the DL parlance. I can only ask that if you're going to make one, try to explain why- right there and then in that post, and not 'I've got a gut feeling... I'll try to explain later.'

Seconded.  Not much to add to that, I've been thinking along those lines for a while and Rat laid it out.

---

In any case, this is getting pretty fruitless for me because I'm being honest about what I did instead of making up elaborate bullshit to cover it. There is nothing new for me to say because I've already said it all unless you'd like me to restate it in a more dressed up way. I don't think I can change your minds because as I said, there's nothing "new" for me to put on the table. There probably aren't any better lynch targets for today since the majority of the focus so if you want a free pass for content today, come make random jabs at me. I'm not like Tom and I'm not going to have a  I really feel that I'm going to be the one to get lynched in 20+ hrs. Since I'm going to flip as a vanilla townie, I might as well re-read the topic and try to contribute about other people in the game before time is up.

So, vanilla roleclaim from patchucloud!  Okay.  I'm a little bit confused as to why you're already acting resigned to death ("I'm going to flip..." etc.), and something else about this bothers me too.  You say... "There probably aren't any better lynch targets for today."  What???  If you know you're a townie, then literally anyone else (since there's no confirmed townies or power roles out there right now, IIRC) would be a better lynch target for any given day.  Getting a townie lynched is real bad news; anyone else, from your perspective, at least MIGHT be scum.  What's the deal, mia?  The end of your post seems to imply that you're willing to try and be helpful here, but if you're an actual townie, helping would mean avoiding getting lynched.  Mislynches suck for town, and you need to play on Team Town here.

Don't tell me it's impossible to change our minds, either.  It's most definitely not.  Even if you feel you're repeating yourself.  The fact is, there's not an incredibly strong case built against you, it's mostly the way you seem to act somewhat contradictory and not have your townie act together.  Even putting aside your defense of yourself, if you could build a better case on someone else, voters might decide that's a better case and switch their votes.  There's plenty of time for that to happen; don't act like we've got five minutes left and you're doomed already.

The whole pity act has gotten you a couple people (Hal, for instance) but it's not a viable strategy in Mafia because frankly trust don't come that easy here.  I suggest a better attitude and a show of earnest desire to avoid getting lynched if you're an actual townie who doesn't want to see a mislynch hurt the town today.  If you can't defend yourself any better, find someone who looks even worse and point him out.  In short, I'm telling you to play the game in an attempt to win with your team, rather than act like it's all out of your hands.

[Yakumo]

Hey, at least I don't attack someone on a gut feeling without any evidence to back it up.  I rely on them a lot, and they've been working well for me, but I use them to direct my investigation and not directly as the basis for voting.  I haven't found any serious evidence to support this one, so I'm keeping it to myself until I have a way to qualify it.

Also, I know this is going to sound bad, but I don't really have a single person that I have evidence for that I really feel is scum.  So, I'm going to default to lurker pressure for now.  Alice, you better come out here soon or Shanghai gets it!  *holds up a doll*

##Vote: OblivionKnight

[Tonfa]

Well, I suppose I should respond to Halrant.

Playing cautiously, you say? I wonder. I've read the topic and expressed my thoughts. I don't have the material or desire to generate huge lengthy rants, I'll give you that. I'd rather get my point across with brief statements. If that makes me look suspicious, I do not comprehend it. What, should I be trying to pull off attention stunts and Xanatos gambits, or just padding my posts with filler?

First serious reply is 173, where he reverses on Smodge and shifts to Tom to "cut loose the argument" - no comment on any of Tom's actual actions to that point.

It is as you say. I simply wanted to cut the detrimental argument, having nothing else to go on early on in day one, and Tom was the one of them with realistic chances of getting lynched.

again posts no content - states his refusal to shift vote on Tom, cites there being "no way to test its believability" (seems weak to me; I didn't shift my vote either, but I've baldly stated that I didn't believe the claim in the first place). If completely uncertain about the claim, it does seem to me that it'd be safer to err on the side of caution here - and shift the vote off Tom.

I did not believe the claim, my fault for not expressing it clearly enough I guess.

states his intention to hammer Strago since the Tom train was going nowhere fast. Doesn't make any assertions about Strago's guilt or innocence (although admittedly this is after Strago flipped), but it would have helped to know -why- he was planning to vote Strago other than "just to get the day over with".

Threat of NoLynch, which has since been clarified to not exist.

Comments on Andy getting cranky over votes during sleep phase (mmm, sleep~), says "town vibe" but doesn't really back that up much. Only other comment is on how being "neutral but sticking to a vote" makes sense; I'll venture an answer in that it's because you never actually volunteered a clear opinion on that vote.

Town vibe was based off Andy's posts in late day one. Reply #235 if you want to get specific. I have no hard evidence to back it up, of course. Though, your analysis of Reply #222 is interesting. Will wait for further reply. Latter point I will concede.

328/329, which came in as I wrote this! Asks for more info from Andy re: forgetting his vote, pokes mia for more content about people not herself, drops a pressure vote on Shale, and requests content from Tai. Still not volunteering anything new. Calling out Andy here seems the oddest to me, given that he got a "townie vibe" from Andrew earlier. Analysis does change as the game progresses, but the lack of any content at all strikes me as off.

Apparently it's unheard of to question people who are not confirmed as town. That, and even though I thought Andy is a townie, I wanted to question him about bad play. As for "volunteering anything new" and "content", sure I could generate an epic guthunch detective story out of thin air, but there would be absolutely no point to that. S'pose I could go over the full list of people, though? Requires another reread of the topic in any case.

Really want to see thoughts on other people from patch now.

[Ranmilia]

Ran - (On a personal note, I hope you don't mind the fact that it's going to take me quite awhile to stop calling you Alex.  I sort of fixate on the first thing I call someone and it's hard to change.  Ask Gate about Smurf Nibblets sometime.)

Not a problem, I actually prefer Alex.  Confusing though that may be.

Since I'm going to flip as a vanilla townie, I might as well re-read the topic and try to contribute about other people in the game before time is up.

Highlighting this in case other people didn't see it, I almost missed it.

-------

With regards to Ciato - scum can and will fake attitudes.  I recall an IRC game wherein someone (LadyAshe?) was completely silent nearly all game, pulled "I'm so confused I have nothing to say" when called on it, and we let her off the hook because we thought "Oh geez another one we're tired of lynching bad townies."  Turns out?  She was scum and had been instructed to act that way by her fellow scum.  It's something of a judgment call, yes, but I highly question using that as a sole defense for someone.  If feigning frustration is all it takes to get you to ignore play like that, welll... note to self, fake tantrums more whenever I draw scum.

There're several things pointing against Mia.  Her day 1 posts, full of summaries and "me too" but without votes.  Her wall of text, which was extreme enough to make me wonder if it wasn't deliberately unreadable - at BEST, if she's town, it's obscure and not making things easy for her fellow townies.  Her arguing for Tom and voting for Strago.  Her waffling over whether or not she knew the count.  Her failing to check new posts for votes in a close situation.  More, her failing to check new posts for votes in a close situation when, according to her, she was trying to make a precision vote on a 7-8 split.  Her epic self-defense and lack of anything else today.

In her defense, we have the argument that she seems "genuinely frustrated"... in other words, too scummy to be scum?  I don't buy this as meaningful or valid at all.  I'm sure she is frustrated, but scum-case-Patchu has plenty of reason to be frustrated today, and some yesterday - she got into that disagreement with Shale, he posted suspicion on her and I posted agreement that she looked weird, before the wall of text came. 

A better question that's been brought up is exactly why the above behavior, especially the wall of text hammer, is scummy, given that both people on the block were town and scum didn't really have a reason to stick their neck out to hammer.  This I have less of an answer for.  The day 1 posts are definitely possible scum play.  Most recently see Dhyer in Random doing the same thing throughout the game.  Wall of text in and of itself I pretty much answered above, it hurts or at least doesn't help other people trying to read it and make judgments. 

Scum, I think it can be safely assumed, would have preferred a Tom lynch to a Strago lynch.  Mia posted intent to hammer Tom earlier, after his claim had been discussed a bit.  She waited for comments... and comments came in, including Shale questioning her and even voting her.  She argues with him a bit, the train swaps around to Strago, it's close.  Mia drops wall on town, argument on Tom, and hammer on Strago.  In the case of scum-Mia, would this be a possible or probable move... I do think it's possible at least.  "Scum wouldn't bother to hammer," on reflection, is a WIFOM argument.  Scum-Mia might indeed bother to hammer to gain townie cred, especially with her being under some fire.  Further analysis... is trying to pry into the mind of scum too much for my taste, especially with Tom being the sole nightkill.  No, I suppose I can't really make a case for it being situationally scummy, but it is definitely not pro-town, and inconsistencies (which are now bordering on lying) are always possible scum signs.     

If nothing else, consider the very post and argument that mia used against Tom:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg4553#msg4553

Apply it to Patchu herself.  If she believes this, why did she behave the way she did? 


Regarding other people...

I was indeed with Hal all today, which kept him (and me) from doing anything related to this game.  So I'm willing to extend him some no-show cred there.  I agree that he's been quiet and needs to post more.

Andrewkuya and Quietrain's discussion is making me uncomfortable, because -- Ninja edit based on new replies while typing -- like Hal said, I'm getting a vibe of Andrew possibly fishing for cop counterclaim. 

I'd like to hear from Smodge, OK, and Tai.  Especially Tai.  To quote mia, ironically, and Tonfa, "Tai's playing?"  Random's over, so...

Chisa's posts still read very solid to me.

Tonfa - I'd like to hear *your* thoughts on Patch, elaborated on some more.

Nobody besides Andrewkuya and Patchcloud are ringing much in the way of bells with me right now, though.

[Ranmilia]

PS

##Love: Chen

[Carthrat]

I want to point out to Hal that while Tom lying as town evidently happened, it's not such an obvious thing to expect, and I'd be wary of using 'not considering it' as a mark against someone. Lying is generally a scum act, so if you thought he was lying, that's where your lines of thought would go. In this case, the truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

[Tonfa]

Thoughts on patch, you say? Simple. Retreating into shell at the beginning of day 2 then only posting self-defense/subsequently giving up and saying, and I quote

There probably aren't any better lynch targets for today

strikes me as really bad. This is not how you play for Team Town, though - It's not exactly a brilliant scum tactic either. I can't decide whether this is really bad town play or really bad scum play. Waiting for a reply before judging further.

[Halbarad]

I want to point out to Hal that while Tom lying as town evidently happened, it's not such an obvious thing to expect, and I'd be wary of using 'not considering it' as a mark against someone. Lying is generally a scum act, so if you thought he was lying, that's where your lines of thought would go. In this case, the truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

The only reason I disagree with this is because the possibility of Tom NOT being scum and still lying about the cop claim was made prior to Andy's post - I'd specifically said "he doesn't necessarily look like scum" AND "I don't believe his cop claim", and at the time I was still very much in favor of both those points.

Perhaps putting those together into "yes he could be a lying townie" is a bit of a stretch, but with the commentary in play at the time I at least thought the possibility had been placed on the table; apparently it wasn't as obvious to others.

This still doesn't negate the fact that Andy seemed to be fishing for a counterclaim from someone, though, which is a bad call regardless - if he believes that Tom is a lying scum, he's asking for someone to claim cop to prove it - which is a bad, bad tradeoff for town. We may peg a scum day 1 - go us - but we're likely to lose our cop to a NK day 1 without any investigations performed. Not a winning combination.

And if you think he's telling the truth, -why would there be a counterclaim at all-? There's nothing that says we have more than one cop; there's nothing that says we have any cops at all. The whole point of a closed setup is that -we don't know- who's out there, and giving scum more information than they already have is a bad plan, since they already have more than we do (they know exactly who's town and who isn't).

As it stands, we're just lucky that -they- bought into Tom's fake claim and NK'ed him for it.

[Chisa]

All right, it's time for the promised Tom Train analysis.

Otter - Gets a late start.  Places a vote on Tom for a tiny thing.  Talks about Mafia etiquette a bit.  Tom erupts, and the first and possibly only real discussion topic of day one begins.  Keeps pressing Tom because of his response.  Promotes the two LALs.  But after that, doesn't show up again until after hammer has already fallen, a day later.  Sticks a vote on Patch not because of the hammer, but because of the play before it.  Also says that if he were here he would have retracted his Tom vote after the cop claim.  Talks about good town play a bit.  Puts pressure on Patch to comment on others.  For the most part, it seems like Otter being his usual aggressive town self, but the gap of over a day does give me pause.

QR - Gets into the serious phase early, talking about smodge's crazy antics.  Sticks an lurkvote on Andrew, retracts it when he talks.  Long analysis post on Tom, centered around his bad play, capped by a vote.  Talks with Otter a bit about his late entrance.  Doesn't remove vote from Tom after the claim, and uses a very strange line:

What I do not ascribe to is the theory that Tom will do us any good as a cop even if he is one which I am still not sure that I buy.

Doubting the cop claim, yes, I can see, I did that too.  But saying that doesn't look very good.  It's like saying he's so incompetent that it outweighs the benefits of having a cop.  Yes, he was a bad player.  But a cop's a cop.
Moving on...defends herself by saying she finds Tom to be the scummiest, several times.  Hammer and NK happens, yelling at Tom results.  Another bloody huge analysis post.  Highlights include spotting a weird line out of Corwin, wondering who's role fishing, and hating neutral reads.  Gets voted on by Andrew and gets defensive about it, but reiterates her reasoning on Tom being scummy.  Overall, I'd call it a negative read, but she has been out there discussing and posting more than most.

Corwin - LAL vote on Andrew, retracted when he speaks.  Looks at Tom for a while.  Thinks it's just a case of Tom's playstyle, but ends up dropping a vote on him because of not excusing scummy play.  Doesn't really talk about the cop claim at first, but pokes at OK for what he sees as role fishing.  Reiterates "don't excuse tells."  Day two, big analysis post.  Supports QR, looks at Cid's post with skepticism, in fact looks at the whole Strago train with skepticism.  A little self-defense, then a pressure vote on Tonfa.  Unvotes him when he notices the voting irregularities.  Wants to keep watching Patch's self-defense.  A short discussion about the possibilities for no majority lynch.  I'm not getting a read in either direction here, honestly.

Hal - First serious post is LAL on Otter.  Removes this vote when he shows up, and votes Tom on his bad play and smokescreening.  Short discussion of the Phantom Vote system.  Back to Day Tom, as Hal states that he doesn't believe the cop claim, and the vote remains because of the bad play.  Long gap here, but he comes back with a reasonable and provable excuse, then drops a vote on milady for lack of content.  While there isn't much to go on here, I'm leaning town.

Yakumo - Another LAL on Otter, moved to Nitori when he speaks.  Tries to talk to Tom, then literally says "screw this" and drops the vote on him.  A couple posts to Kilga regarding the game, then nothing else for the rest of day one.  Upon the opening of the second day, basically says nothing except he's going to review the topic.  Which generates...nothing.  Ends up LALing OK.  The lack of anything concrete here is even worse than with Nitori, and if my vote wasn't on someone who I thought was acting scummy, it'd be here.

Tonfa - Admittedly random vote on Smodge at the beginning of serious play.  Wakes up, sees the Tom clusterfuck, votes for Tom to clear away the crap.  Notes Tom's claim, says he can't trust it, and that no other lynch target is better.  With only three serious day one posts, my mistress was ringing my alarms.  Day two makes up for it a bit.  Talks about possibly being the Strago hammer.  Then finds the votecount problems, also yells at patch's hammer.  Called out by QR, responds by saying the "don't lynch cop" arguments had swayed her.  Talks to Andrew about the vote thing, asks patch to give thoughts about other players, and pressure votes Shale.  Follows that up with a note that Tai's not been doing much either.  Responds to Hal's vote point by point.  All in all, milady's play day two has been much better and much townier-seeming, but I've still got my eye out here.

Rat - Starts off with what may be the first serious post, voting for Smodge over the name game.  Wants people to use their votes.  Criticizes Otter, Cid, and Tom.  Then after being ninja'd, tries to talk some sense into Tom.  Later votes him for his scummy play.  Wonders about the double vote.  Hammer et cetera, on to day two.  Responds to Andrew, looks into the Strago train.  Ends up voting me, because my reason was weak.  Takes the vote off after my explanation, votes Patch because of the hammer and the subsequent defense, and asks Cid about his vote.  Reiterates suspicion of Cid with reasoning, analyzes Patch's post, and asks Smodge, and anyone else, to comment on the end of the Strago train.   Points out that lying is usually a scum tactic, which it is unless there's some huge Xanatos gambit going on.  He's been analytical and pro-town all game, which is a good thing.  I'm thinking town.

GOD THIS POST TOOK FOREVER.

[Nitori]

A big game deserves a bit of thinking, I guess, so I'll look at a few people and score them on townness~.

Tonfa: He looked bad to me at first, since he really didn't do a lot on Day 1 and I found his Tom reasoning seemingly reiterated with the other reasonings at the time. He's picked up significantly for Day 2, although I can't help but hold what I saw as reiteration against him a little bit. 3/5.

Carthrat: Early vote caller, then slaps around Dread Thomas, which seems reasonable enough even if I didn't agree with it personally. Amusingly dismisses the possibility of Tom having double vote, and leans in favor of not giving him a day. Right now he's focusing on the Strago train specifically, targets Chisa, then backs off and goes to cloud after an explanation he finds fine aside from a few points.

Carth really feels like he switched from Chisa since cloud opened herself up as a better case, and not of anything that Chisa actually explained. That said, he hasn't done anything particularly ire-raising as far as I can tell. 4/5.

OK: Throws himself at Otter early, and then he seemed to defend smodge/Tom a bit...although as has been said he seems to have overstated the attacks a bit. Then he gets into talking about the cop claim, which he really seems to disbelieve, and then flips over to giving the claim a chance. He also didn't see anything compelling in Strago/mia either. He also comments on the mia case as something to look at after she responds.

OK feels a bit weird. He basically jumped when Ran said "Jump!" but didn't really follow through on the case; admittedly, I also did the same, but I had a reason to cast a vote for Strago there. The main thing I want to see from OK now is what he thinks of the cloud now. 3/5.

cloud: miasma's obviously been through quite a lot of insanity today that doesn't need to be described again. There's a ton of emotion there, and her main defense is that she did not notice what she was doing, and it's really troubling that she's thinks she's 'screwed' at this point. I found the stuff from before not as compelling as the case I was pursuing (Chisa), since mia could have done it under the threat of a tie and no lynch, but just giving up like that is pretty...major. 2/5.

Chisa: I've already stated my main problem with Chisa, given the trainness (and relative feelings of reiteration), although I don't think I buy the Andrew train as too serious a gaffe anymore due to the fact he was relatively early on and it was a lurker pressure train. On the other hand, I didn't like the reason for voting Strago at least compared to my own reasoning, and he didn't offer too great of a defense, as Carth has mentioned. "I'd vote for me too.". Ookkkaaayyyy. 2/5.

Chisa and cloud both look bad to me, but I think I'm compelled to switch here given one factor I just thought of: Chisa did analyze other players, cloud did not. This plus cloud's giving up is enough for a voteswitch here, I think, although mia has promised analysis later, so I definitely want to see that.

##UNVOTE: Chisa
##VOTE: Patchucloud

[Kilgamayan]

Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

Patchcloud (6): Ran, Otter, Chisa, Carthrat, Gatewalker, Nitori
Chisa (0): Carthrat, Nitori
Tonfa (2): Corwin, Halbarad
Nitori (1): OblivionKnight
Halbarad (1): El Cideon
QuietRain (1): AndrewRogue
Shale (1): Tonfa
OblivionKnight (1): Yakumo

Love Count:

Chen (1): Ran
Everyone (2): OblivionKnight, Taishyr (drunk)
Nitori (1): Nitori
Reisen (3): Corwin, Taishyr (spark bullets), El Cideon
Strago (1): Taishyr (spark bullets)
Ran (1): Yukari

With 19 people alive, it takes 10 votes to lynch.

Little less than 22 hours to go.

[Smodge13]

Ok, i've missed a lot.
Note: dinner is Starting soon so if this post cuts out mid-sentence its only because i didn't want to risk losing it by leaving the window open (IE crashes occasionally)
So if its incomplete i will post the rest ASAP

Rat on the reason of stating my gut suspicions, it's usually because their more accurate than my thought out suspicions hence i state them for future reference and you never know what may come in handy, i'll still give them occasionally but i will try to keep them seperate fromt he core of my posts, so if you don't like them they can be ignored.

Now with Tom lieing about being a cop, on the surface it looked like a good move, however in depth thinking reveals it for the stupidity it is.

So far his claim has cost us 2 townies with power roles, 1 Townie revealing they have a role, and 1 big ol smokescreen.

Anyway, Personal thoughts about the Tom/Strago trains (Warning contains WIFOM).
Personally i believe scum would be more likely to be on the Strago train than the Tom train, Scum are usually more cautious and i can't see them blatantly putting themselves under the microscope by choosing to lynch a cop AFTER they have claimed.

Realistically there is probably scum on both trains.

Before i get round to it
Patch, this is something Rat drilled into me a while back when i first started playing.
The one thing everyone is sure of is their own roles.
So here is something to ponder.
Your own role is the 1 thing you can always be sure of, Therefore absolutely anyone is a preferable lynch than yourself, even if your not sure who is scum, there is still a chance the person chosen over yourself could be scum.
That is why thoughts/posts like "you might as well lynch me because you have nothing to go on" are stupid.
Admittedly lynching a vanilla townie over a power role townie is good damage control, the aim IS to catch scum and it should be the first aim no matter what.
I can't remember who said it in a different game but it was along these lines.
"if your town and about to get lynched, don't just sit down and accept it, do whatever you can to help the town, until the moment you are lynched devote everything you have to finding the scum even if it gets you killed, because if you know your town then absolutely ANYONE is a better target than yourself."
Personally i think this is what Tom may have tried, but he should have thought the consequences through ALOT better.

Ok now that thats out of the way, onto thoughts about people.

Suspicians seeing as my suspiscions lie more to those on the Strago train - i personally am looking more towards Alex/Ciato/Nitori/Chisa and Gate.

Alex/Ciato and possibly Nitori - from what i've seen Alex and Ciato are more likely to think along the lines of never lynching a cop day 1, Nitori i haven't seen post enough to think the same of but it is possible for me to believe it.

As for Chisa/Gate - theres possibility of Scum getting on the safe train ASAP but watching first to see if Tom's claim would actually start a train so that they don't jump onto somehting that doesn't catch on.

lets start with the ones the rat requested:

Patch - seeing as the above was addressed to him, personally i think its just beginnerish townie getting used to the forums, i don't know how many games he's played but i can see a lot of the things he has posted as being along similar thought trains as my own (although my painful lessons from some people *cough* Otter/Alex) have taught me to think differently, does this mean we should give patch a free pass? Definately not, however we should take it into consideration, afterall he can always be lynched another day.

Ok more post after dinner.

[Corwin]

Morning! Okay, catching up. First, responses to people addressing me and a scan for fresh arguments.

Cid and QR's thoughts on page 21 pretty much get the same response: it's not the first time I'm playing with Tom, him lying to try save himself/go for an incredibly bizarre gambit/both is exactly what I expected him to do, frustration was mounting over people believing him game after game... maybe that line QR quotes was out of line, but I don't think anyone was quite as successful in ruining what I like in a mafia game for me as he did. The context for 'keeping spirits up' was in relation to Reisen crying in a cardboard box, btw, so....

A note to Kilga: I unvoted Tonfa before Hal even voted for him, so the last two votecounts are wrong. Would you like people to leave a blank line before and after a vote/unvote so that you'd be able to catch it better? I dunno, I just like to rely on a mod's votecounts since they're supposed to be impartial, so I want them to be as accurate as possible.

To reiterate my thoughts on Patchu: Groupthink behavior just doesn't seem scummy to me, and that's how I see her actions. She's not the only one guilty of it, but she is the only one in danger of being lynched, and I would like to actually go after the people who are lurking and thus depriving us of reads on them than someone who is talking. It is my hope to divert the lynch on someone I don't see as scummy, so since Patchu doesn't seem to be doing much effort of pointing fingers towards better target, I should becoming more active in her defense. Again, it could all change if I see something in her future posts to catch my eye, but so far I'm inclined to believe in her and look elsewhere. A related issue is that total focus could be bad for us: it happened with Tom day 1, and it appears day 2 is turning into everything about Patchu. Therefore....

Here's a list of people playing (and still alive):

Code: [Select]

1. Nitori - Eirin Yagokoro
2. Chisa - Youmu Konpaku
3. Carthrat - Fujiwara no Mokou
4. Sir Alex - Ran Yakumo
5. AndrewRogue - Sakuya Izayoi
6. Taishyr - Marisa Kirisame
7. Tonfa - Yuyuko Saigyouji
8. Gatewalker - Hong Meiling
9. Oblivion Knight - Alice Margatroid
10. Shale - Yuka Kazami
11. Corwin - Kaguya Houraisan
12. Ciato - Keine Kamishirasawa
13. El Cideon - Remilia Scarlet
14. Yakumo - Flandre Scarlet
15. Otter - Reimu Hakurei
16. kneesockscloud - Patchouli Knowledge
17. Halbarad - Yukari Yakumo
19. Smodge13 - Komachi Onozuka
21. QuietRain - Sikieiki Yamaxanadu

There is a reason to my madness and copy-pasta, so bear with me for a sec. Okay, so take a moment to glance at the list. Can we all honestly say we remember all 21 are even playing?

Taishyr jumps out at me. Now that I see his name, I think he posted... sometime. About something. That's a red flag for me right there.

smodge is... eh. He seems to be making an effort, though he's being awfully conservative (for him). Could be his excuse, could be trying to lurk as much as he is able to.

Andrew, Hal and Alex/Ran of all people do post, but overall appear more silent than usually as well. Just a mental note for myself to watch for later, hardly anything approaching smodge levels of discrepancy.

Shale. Umm. I can get behind the feeling already presented earlier in the thread that 'lots of oneliners' is what I remember of him best. Someone to glance at, once I get a satisfying response from Taishyr.

So. ##Vote: Taishyr. You are playing, right? On our side?

[Sierra]

Not joining the Mia train yet. Unsuspecting hammer still looks bad, but the wall o' text tirade feels more like honest frustration than anything else. It could be faked, but not easily.

That said, Tonfa's point that all her posting from today has been self-defense is a good one. Should you defend yourself against people questioning you? Certainly, but if that's all you do then it doesn't help Town much in the end (see: day one Tom trainwreck). If there's no other viable option near the end of the day, I'll reconsider my stance on Mia, but right now I'd rather hunt up lurkers.

[bb]##Unvote: Halbarad[/b], on that note.

More to come in a moment. I find it easier to post my thoughts as they come rather than organize them into one long treatise.

[Ranmilia]

Andrew, Hal and Alex/Ran of all people do post, but overall appear more silent than usually as well. Just a mental note for myself to watch for later, hardly anything approaching smodge levels of discrepancy.

Uhhhh I'm curious as to what your standards of comparison are for Hal, as he's played Mafia exactly once before and died on day 2 of that.

Agreed as to Tai's continued absence growing increasingly odd.  Especially since he *is* online and was talking about Mafia on IRC earlier.  Not to mention Random.  I know he's being beaten up by real life and sickness and all, but...

[Smodge13]

smodge is... eh. He seems to be making an effort, though he's being awfully conservative (for him). Could be his excuse, could be trying to lurk as much as he is able to.

Multiple reasons for this.
1. I have had limited time, i knew day 1 i would be limited posts it only continued into day 2 because day 1 time was lessened.
2. I'm trying to be more thoughtful and cautios, so to a degree it IS lurking, what i'm trying to do is think things through 100% and not just post a thoughtless comment that always seems to get me in trouble.
3. Noones been attacking me (which i do find strange not many have even commented on my lurking) as Alex pointed out i really need to get out of this OMGUS mentality, i can see now how much being attacked clouds my own thoughts, if i was attacked i would probably be a lot less conservative but would also probably be more inaccurate (however it will be interesting to see if the time comes if i have learnt enough to think clearly even when my neck is on the block)

Now back to the big long post.

[Corwin]

Ah, I should've been clearer, Alex. I know Hal a bit, so I wasn't going just by his past mafia games for a postcount. He just doesn't seem as active as I'd expect of him, and that's what I meant by 'usually'.

[Sierra]

Hm. I need to go back and look over posts by people who stayed on the Tomtrain and who bailed. I have to say, I do buy Chisa's reason for doing the latter: being able to acknowledge that your logic was flawed and acting accordingly is a good thing.

For now, I'll give Shale a Talk More vote:

##Vote: Shale

[Smodge13]

Ok
Rat wants my thoughts on Strago endtrain. (speaking of which Rat, why specifically Chisa/Cid/Patch/andrew and not Gate?, those 3 were towards the end but gate was in there also and actually came after chisa)

Corwin wants my thoughts on Tonfa.

I've already commented on Patch so to continue

El Cid - Cid Seems to have a low post count (yes pot/kettle i know), from what i see he keeps his hands completely clean of the Tom Vs Town thing says he thinks its a town invented smokescreen and calls out the lurker, could be town could be scum, it depends on how you look at it, Doesn't believe Toms claim but decides to vote strago, nuetral to town feel (personally i reckon Scum would believe Toms claim (Especially seeing as Tom is dead) but that could be my inexperience talking).

Andrew - The threat at stopping the lynch gives me a strong town feel, but thats only because i have a tendency to believe roleclaims, he defended Tom lightly before the cop claim, and backed it up afterwards, tried to get a train going on Patch but went for strago because noone followed suit and he wanted a way to not lynch tom, Strong town feel.

Chisa - day 1 was giving off a lurkerish scum feel, day 2 however has changed that completely, his first day 1 strago vote seems really weird to me, you can't make a mistake and then accuse someone of being scum for making the same mistake, otherwise what does that make you? scum?, anyway Chisa gives off a nuetral feel to me, the complete change in day 1 and day 2 posts seems suspicious to me though, possible sucm analizing his posts and changing tact, then again townie could always do the same.

Now i see why gate wasn't called out, these 3 were lurkerish.

Thoughts on Tonfa and more in a bit.