Author Topic: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic  (Read 121651 times)

OblivionKnight

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #550 on: January 22, 2008, 04:32:08 AM »
Ok, I really want to stay in this right now, but I need to jump for the night, since I have rotation nice and early tomorrow (and some work for it I need to do >_>). 

I might pop in once more in an hour or so just to keep caught up.
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Tonfa

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #551 on: January 22, 2008, 04:32:31 AM »
That's a whole lot new info to digest.

On the QR/Tai issue, I'm inclined to say it's a careful scum ploy by QR that backfired. Andrew vote on day 2 after dayvig claim has me the most uneasy of anything either has said during the course of the game here. Makes more sense to me than any possible Tai Xanatos Gambit scenario here. Both of them could be townies, though....mmph.

Andy...yeah, inclined to believe him. Scum Dayvig would be several layers of weird.

No time for more in the morning, I'm afraid. (And frankly, the time investment needed/free time ratio is a lot worse here than I had thought during signups time. Not entirely sure I have time for much reading/analysis/posting today at all, as reality takes priority over mafia. I will continue playing to win, but if somebody with more time wants to play, throw a replacement request into the TH mafia signups topic and I will step down.)

So, to recap: I'd be in favor of vigging QR in this situation.
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AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #552 on: January 22, 2008, 04:43:08 AM »
To be strictly fair, Otter, I never lied. Check my posts yesterday. I never said I was night kill immune. At any point. I said I was confident I could survive the night. I said I was confident I could survive the night. I've been choosing my words very carefully, and pushing the lines, but I've been sticking to the literal truth.

Yes, I had a 50% chance of surviving. I also had a 50% chance of dying at that point and my kill going with it. I wanted to live out the night, and that required either simply trusting a coin-flip, or discouraging scum from attempting to kill me. Apparently, someone caught onto the idea that I was splitting hairs and never explicitly said I was immune to kills.

If it comes to it, I'll fully elaborate on how my power works (as well as the other facets), but I have to ask, why would you really want me to elaborate on how an evasion power works at this point? I've said how it worked at the time, which is no longer applicable. Isn't it more beneficial to leave the matter to scum to concern themselves with now?

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #553 on: January 22, 2008, 04:56:20 AM »
Quote from: Andrew
I was, essentially, hedging my bets and trying to put the odds in my favor without lying to town.

Quote from: Andrew
I wanted to live out the night, and that required either simply trusting a coin-flip, or discouraging scum from attempting to kill me.

It's the "put the odds in my favor" thing that bothers me.  You think your power's so important that it's better to guarantee some other townie gets hit by the NK rather than draw the fire yourself and get a 50% chance of blocking the kill?  Blocked kills are really really good for town.  The only one who's better served by some other townie taking the hit is you.

If you were actually a townie with all these wondrous powers, then yes, it would be better not to give up any valuable info to the scum.  However, the way you're conveniently revealing and revising your revelation of powers to suit every given moment, all with the promise that there's more you're not telling us so we shouldn't be surprised if something new pops up, makes it look an awful lot to me like you're making it all up as you go along.

Anyway, it stands that you'll look a fair bit better if you can execute the daykill and actually prove that you at least weren't lying about one thing.  The promise of you doing that isn't good enough for me, though, and until I actually see it happen, I'm going to be awfully suspicious of you and I think you can understand why.

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #554 on: January 22, 2008, 05:02:21 AM »
Re: QR's claim
This...geh. I'm inclined to believe that at the very least, she thinks she is what she says she is, but that's mostly for metagame reasons. Usually when she bullshits people, she doesn't make these kinds of risky manuevers, like pretending to be a cop when she's not one. However, this is kind of WIFOM as she knows I can analyze her better then anyone else can and were she scum, would deliberately do things I would not expect. Bleh, not sure WHAT to believe here.

Re: Tai's claim
...arghleheadpainow
Though...I do agree that I cannot fathom why a scum godfather would claim miller for the chance of getting a cop killed. This would be a really bizzare move and while Tai is a really bizzare guy, a tactic like this just...eh, the thought he'd make that kind of insane gambit doesn't sit well with me.

So that leaves us with:

1) someone is lying. Either QR is not a cop, or Tai is not a miller. If QR is lying, she is almost certainly scum, and if Tai is lying he's...either the Godfather or a non-miller townie but I CAN NOT think of a single reason a non-miller townie would claim miller to cast sucpicion on a cop claim. I just can't.

2) Either Tai, QR or both don't know everythign about thier role. The most obvious of these is that QR is a naive cop, which sounds a bit odd in conjunction with the 2/3 night thing, but it's still possible. Certainly more possible then Tai being told he's a miller when he's really not. THAT would just be bastard modding and nothing but.

Is there a third option here? I'd suggest roleblock but Tai says he hasn't been roleblocked so if we believe he is a miller we must also believe this claim.

Anyway, there's also re: andy's vig shot
I also approve of the "vig whoever has the most votes by a certain time period" idea. Maybe by the point of 24 hours left in the day? Using your kill as directed by a majority, or at least a plurality vote, is the best way to prove your alignment as a townie. Especially considering some of the points Otter just brought up in his post with the vote on you(which, you're right, you didn't exactly lie but it is stretching the truth a bit much for comfort), I'll go out on a limb and say that if you won't use it in a majority directed manner, then you should be lynched. Still, you seem cool with using it as such, so for now we're still good.

Otter, in response to your vote on Andy, I will say that so long as he is willing to direct this kill as town as a group demands, then it doesn't matter if he's town or not until he's used it. If he's scum, he's tipped his hand and the town is effectively commandeering his weapon. And if he won't play along, he'll get strung up. For now, no matter his alignment, he's of more use alive then dead. I don't think he's scum though, I just think you're(quite understandably, considering) jumping on some hair-splitting and evasiveness as a scum tell when he was trying to preserve a power role.

So for now, yeah, not wanting to vote just yet, but as the discussion du jour seems to be Tai/QR, were I asked to choose between the two, I would vote for QR. I'm a firm believer in Occam's Razor and the simplest solutions in this case are that she is a Naive Cop and therefore not too horribly useful, or that she's lying and, well, Lynch All Liars. Any solution which has Tai as scum/lying is just a bizzare gamble that I can't really buy into.

EDIT: Reading back over this before I post, it seems that my tone sounds a bit sharp towards Andy, but I don't mean any offense by it. I'm just trying to be as logical as I can and look at this from every angle I can think of.

EDIT 2: Since I started this post, which was awhile ago, 29 new replies have come up. Man I'm slow. And yes, I did read them.
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Luther Lansfeld

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #555 on: January 22, 2008, 05:02:51 AM »
Blocked kills are good, but essentially getting two kills as a day phase is a guarenteed blocked kill, right? (Since it would take us two normal days to do the same thing accomplished in one.)
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #556 on: January 22, 2008, 05:20:40 AM »
Flat out, here is the full list of my abilities so we can avoid further claims of revisionist history.

1. One-time kill ability, that can be utilized at day or night (implied in a threat regarding stopping lynches, used at a juncture well it could well have done that).

2. Evasion power that was at 50% last night (implied in confidence against being night killed). This has sense changed, but I'm leaving how to your imaginations unless it becomes a matter of life and death.

3. I am immune to all other types of night actions at this point (generally unimplied).

4. I have on more particular quality, but I can't discuss it, period, lest I tempt modkill (generally unimplied).

Take from this what you will. It is everything I have at my disposal.

Furthermore, I will give you guys the choice. Either I vig the person with the most votes tonight before I go to bed (about 3am) or at the first opportunity I have after the 24 hour mark. Take your pick.

QuietRain

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #557 on: January 22, 2008, 05:36:49 AM »
I am all in favor of getting a concensus going here so if there is ANYTHING anyone wants to ask me, wants me to clarify, please let me know.  I'm only going to be up for another 2-3 hours at the most, though.  I've made my points as well as I think they can be made.

If you all think that I'm a naieve slow cop (*eyes Kilga with a frown*) then I agree my usefulness to you guys is piss and poor.  All I know is what my role was given as: cop for 2 out of 3 days.

I'd like to lay out my thoughts on senarios here and have you guys look them over and tell me where/if my logic is off.

1-I'm a sane cop.  This means my read on Tai is correct.  Now this boils down to Tai being town and miraculously having someone Roleblock him last night (but he says no) or else he's scum.  Is there another option where we're both town and I'm sane?  Because if so, I can't see it.  I read back through all of the posts I missed but if another option was discussed, I missed it in the posting deluge.

2-I'm an insane cop.  I believe this was disproved by my read on Tom, though.

3-I'm a naieve cop.  This means my read on Tai means nothing.  He could be scum or town either way.

I really have a hard time seeing myself as insane.  I mean, really.  Not only can I NOT use my ability 1 day out of every 3, but when I do use it all I get are innocent results?  It would be a completely useless ability and I have a hard time thinking Kilga would throw something in totally worthless like that.  Now, if I'm sane, I have a hard time seeing Tai as town.  

This is all stuff we've all said before though so I'm just going around in circles trying to figure out what to do about my read on Tai.  At this point, I don't know what to do with it.  I leave it up to you guys if there's anything else you want me to say.  I've been saying all along that I'm on team town, so in the interest of persuading you of my honesty or barring that for posterity in the event of my untimely demise, what do you guys want on my thoughts?

Now, this of course does not factor into the mix the chance that I may be scum.  I realize this.  But I fail to see where my speculating on something I know not to be true will help anyone.  If I do get vigged today, I want what you guys have to look at me when you read back through to be as clear as possible.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #558 on: January 22, 2008, 05:39:07 AM »
I vote for 24-hour mark. I can't say I feel comfortable getting anybody offed after six-seven hours of discussion at this point.

Ninja'd by QR. I say again: Naive Cop is by its nature useless. It is a trap role, designed to feed townies misinformation. In that case limited the number of investigations you can make might look overcomplicated, but it would also balance the game in our favor.
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Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #559 on: January 22, 2008, 05:55:19 AM »
This post- http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5275#msg5275 says why in the end I don't want the vig used on Tai better than I have. Yeah, it's from the man himself, but it's pretty much what I think.

The whole 'I cannot tell you more, lest I be modkilled!' thing grates. A lot. Two people have claimed it which gives it a bit more credibility. This is probably more something about modding mafia in general, but.. geez, aren't there better ways to dissaude claims and such?

Strongly doubt either of Andy and Tai are scum, so I don't believe they're coordinating anything here.

I don't believe Andrew is scum thanks to his claimed power of dayvig. The other stuff is up for debate. Scum dayvig? Ultra-unlikely. In any case, I remain really suspicious of people voting for him right now, which means Otter joins the ranks of others such as QR. I don't buy Otter going 'you should be trying to draw kills with a 50% dodge chance!' when you've got such risky odds of losing a limited-use power. Admittedly, I think Andy should have used said way earlier than now if that's how it all worked. But I digress.

Moving back to the idea that a scum-Tai gambit at this point is a very risky thing to do- especially combined with the claims of a role like watcher (a very, very easy one to fuck up faking) to the point where I don't believe it's terribly likely at all. Hence, my actual vig choice of QR. It is the simplest explanation; Tai is in fact a miller, and QR is scum and got caught in a lie.

I honestly don't know what QR could say that would change my mind at this point, either. I could ask you to reiterate why you voted for Andy on day 2, or why you chose to claim when you did, but you've covered these already, and I've already not liked much about what you've had to say. There were *quite a few* reasons that Andrew could've been certain of not being killed, for instance (for all that it's dumb to let scum know). I don't feel that your roleclaim or the information we would get was helpful for you to divulge at that time (although it certainly turned out differently than anyone would expect,) and feel that you should've instead fought it out and tried to get someone else put on the block.
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Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #560 on: January 22, 2008, 05:58:26 AM »
To Andy's thing. I don't think I'm going to be able to move far beyond QR until I see her flip. Thus I would be in favour of you using it sooner rather than later. (Presumably on her. If you're going to use it on someone else, it'll give me more info as well, so...)

Furthermore, I suspect most of the discussion that goes on until that will be coloured by stuff like 'I'm still suspicious of Andy, and will be until I see his dayvig!' or 'And here's another convoluted way in which both Tai and QR are town/scum/third party/whatever'. Anything is possible. What I've put forward is what's probable.
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Kilgamayan

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #561 on: January 22, 2008, 05:59:11 AM »
Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

QuietRain (4): Smodge13, CarthRat, Yakumo, Taishyr
Tonfa (1): Halbarad
Corwin (0): Yakumo
AndrewRogue (1): Otter

Love Count:

Chen (2): Yukari, Ran
Everybody (1): Taishyr
Marisa (2): Arisu, Ran

With 17 people still alive, 9 votes is a majority.

47 hours to go.


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Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #562 on: January 22, 2008, 06:02:43 AM »
Point A:  "I just skirted the truth, I didn't actually tell a lie" is nearly a lynchworthy statement by itself.  Lynch All Liars has its purpose in the spirit, not the letter.  Misleading the town, lying to the town, SAME THING.  Don't mince words like that.  Another point against Andrew to me.

Point B:  A townkill is vastly more useful than a 50% chance to block a scumkill.  I completely disagree with Otter, losing the townkill is a risk that should not have been taken.  And it wouldn't have to have been, if Andrew had declared his townkill and made it available for use earlier. 

Point C:

Flat out, here is the full list of my abilities so we can avoid further claims of revisionist history.

1. One-time kill ability, that can be utilized at day or night (implied in a threat regarding stopping lynches, used at a juncture well it could well have done that).

2. Evasion power that was at 50% last night (implied in confidence against being night killed). This has sense changed, but I'm leaving how to your imaginations unless it becomes a matter of life and death.

3. I am immune to all other types of night actions at this point (generally unimplied).

4. I have on more particular quality, but I can't discuss it, period, lest I tempt modkill (generally unimplied).

Take from this what you will. It is everything I have at my disposal.


Point C-1:  You can't discuss your last quality so you have not told us everything you have at your disposal.  I understand that you can't discuss it and believe that much at least, as I believe Tai's claim. 

Point C-2:  Immune to all non-kill night actions?  ... seriously?  In addition to a vig power, 50% chance to evade kills, and an unknown and nondiscussable power? 

I'm calling this now:  with this role and his behavior, there is no way, no freakin way Andrew is town.  He is either a scum making outlandish claims, or a well-equipped third party.  I personally think third party is very likely and fits both his roleclaim and his behavior the best, it's much more like Team Andrew than Team Town, and I just can't see this degrading personal defenses stuff as belonging to a townie.  After he uses his kill today, I feel that he should be our lynch.

##Vote: Andrew to back that up.

Actually I'm uncomfortable with him using his kill at all, but I can't articulate any reason why other than strong feeling he is not town.  However I don't really see a way to stop him from using it, so.

Who to kill.

QR/Tai is a possibility.  On further review, believing Tai's role(non)claim does not imply anything about his alignment, I shouldn't have fallen into that fallacy.  I believe he isn't making it up out of whole cloth, but it could be a scum role just as easily as a townie role.  Then again, I still can't see why scumTai would call this as he has.  Then AGAIN, I still believe QR on strength of my analysis, and if she is lying Tai's death would reveal it and get her lynched anyhow, so I'm not sure I can support her death.  (I also don't think there's much else QR can say to help, unless she has another vig target to suggest, so yeah, do that and/or go to bed.)  This is the option that gives us the most information, but I'm not sure either of them is actually scum.

Otter has been quiet and his latest posts urge strategy that I don't agree with, namely that a townie should take a 50% chance of losing a townkill in exchange for a chance of blocking a kill.  He is usually one of the sharper ones and in tune with my thinking on strategy matterns like that.  I'm not sure what this says about him.  He and Hal are my runner-ups for vigging at this point, day 3 is where to start really looking at who's been hanging back.

There's also the case on Cor from yesterday.

Nobody else has really popped on my radar yet...

I'm also in favor of using the daykill sooner rather than later, preferably tonight so that we don't run into a crunch for the later portion of the day if the flip is nutty.

Edit for Flaming Ratbird posts:  Oneshot scum dayvig is entirely possible.  If Andrew is on scumteam, it need not even be him who has it (and he could be making up the protection stuff, since he knows he's not at risk of being killed.)  I'm not sure why you would think this excuses the possibility.

QuietRain

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #563 on: January 22, 2008, 06:09:40 AM »
The only other thing I have that I can possibly think may be related to this is a posting restriction.  I read over my role PM and it didn't say that I couldn't say this.  I have been required to make all of my posts be one hundred words or more or else garner a permenant vote against me.  Does anyone think this is a restriction that would be given to a naieve cop weith my restrictions already?

I think if I'm being so restricted that my role should be more solid than that.  It's the very last thing I can think of that may be worth sharing information wise.
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Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #564 on: January 22, 2008, 06:11:39 AM »
....you what?

Okay, I'm calling it right now. Kilga is a crazy man.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #565 on: January 22, 2008, 06:12:50 AM »
Ran: Urgh. You're right, I'd had this thought stuck in my head that there's no way scum would have a role like that, it's just too good. I hadn't really considered the possibility of him being third party, either. What I'd done was look at the arguments against him and find them very strange on day 2, which lead me to think he looks better than not.

QR: That's not much of a restriction. I find most posts I make to usually be at least that long, with the exception of occasional oneliners. Doesn't change my thoughts either way.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #566 on: January 22, 2008, 06:16:06 AM »
YES I AM AWARE OF THE IRONY OF THAT POST BEING NINETY-NINE WORDS.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #567 on: January 22, 2008, 06:19:00 AM »
>_> That's a pretty damn mean restriction.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #568 on: January 22, 2008, 06:19:42 AM »
....you what?

Okay, I'm calling it right now. Kilga is a crazy man.

QFT

QFFT

This is insanity. Post restrictions, role revealing restrictions, ungodly powerful roles, oi. I'm going to bed.

Oh, yeah, one last thing. Andy, I'd vote for using the kill after the first 24 hours, myself. But go with what the most people call for.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #569 on: January 22, 2008, 06:24:56 AM »
That's a nice and reasonable restriction.  Very fitting for Shiki.  Post restrictions and role revelation restrictions are not so out of the ordinary, I've seen em used and contemplated using them myself.  (In fact I most likely will, in my upcoming games.)


##Love: Chen

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #570 on: January 22, 2008, 06:25:05 AM »
Ooookay. So. Andrew, unless your role has some giant downside, Alex has a good argument that it looks far too good, and too self-sufficient, to be town. The only problem I have there is wondering why he would admit to the kill power so early. If that's his big weapon, putting it out in the open so early and then relying on the townie cred it would buy to carry him the rest of the way seems like a pretty major gamble.

(Of course, that assumes he's telling the truth about the one-kill limit, which could easily be a lie if he's third-party. Argh.)

On Tai: If you trust his power claim...well, if he has all that he's probably not Godfather, and if he's not Godfather I can't see any reason for him to call out QR like he has. The alternative there is that he's Godfather borrowing all the role information from some other scum. Argh. WIFOM.

QR I remain suspicious of for the claim timing and her earlier vote patterns. On the other hand, I'm more inclined than most to consider the possibility of a naive cop, possibly because I am pathologically paranoid about cop sanities.

If I have to vote to kill somebody right now....argh. I don't know. QR looks more suspicious but there's a substantially higher risk involved. Offing Tai tells us something concrete about QR if he flips scum, but if he's a town miller we're back to square one on the cop claim.

Hopefully this debate will still be here in the morning. I'm going to bed.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #571 on: January 22, 2008, 06:25:30 AM »
So, uhh, deadline for day 2 came as I was asleep. The entire following day was wasted by me hitting f5 and waiting on an email to come with a post notification. Then, game resumed while I was asleep once more and from a single post on page 30 I now have to catch up to page 38 (?!). I'm certain by the time I've read up till then, it'll be page 40+ or somesuch. I hate you all, and I hate Kilga the most.

So what can I do? I could make this post I've written yesterday in notepad which comments on what caught my eye as day 2 came to a close, now that I've seen a partial confirmation of Andrew's claim (not vig, yet, from what I can see, but the not-dying part). Here goes.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg4978#msg4978

Yakumo, what you saw as a gameplay issue, I believed to be scum slipping up. Andrew seemed to have tried fishing for counterclaims when it was still viable with Tom, then he continued saying that and at least Tai appeared to be nodding along from his response to me. Given we don't have just one important role in this game (meta, yeah, but we all know this) it certainly seemed like setting the stage for drawing one out when scum/suspicious townie roleclaim in the future. In particular, he could've gone past his day 1 softclaim and gotten a vital town role caught in his logic trap in the process.

Then, there's Cid post to me +vote. If Andrew was speaking hypothetically, why was he speaking of it so consistently in his day 2 posts? There was just too much, and it was going for a second day in a row... you're free to disagree, but we won't catch scum if I duck my head every time someone drops a vote on me rather then staying on someone who I consider to be the likeliest scum.

Reading Patchu's post, I have to wonder myself how Shale managed to pick up so many votes. Yeah, he was lurkerific, and I commented on that myself, but going back to glance at a votecount, wasn't he like on 4 votes compared to Patchu's 6 at one time?

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg4988#msg4988

smodge, I wasn't too comfortable with Andrew's softclaim, I must say. It could just as easily be scum preparing the ground for a claim, as a legit one. I suppose I could invite you to reread the arguments without the preconception that Andrew's claim necessarily makes him town, but given the developments in the thread since your post... eh.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg4991#msg4991

Yakumo, again. Yes, pretty much (on Hal). I was going by games, just not mafia. Your point of it not being the best reference here, perhaps, is well-taken.

I don't believe I was repeating the same argument as much as finding more proof to support a case that jumped at me, the way Andrew's post did on a reread of the last few posts at the time. He already looked bad to me for the voting issue Tonfa found and the way he avoided my point on it being a tell. So I kept going back, and I kept finding more and more. What was I supposed to do, ignore it and vote on the Patchu train I just didn't buy into for reasons already stated? The pressure was for a situation you don't feel relevant, you were saying in an earlier post, but I disagree -- I answered that one above. Unfortunately, Kilga's days end while I sleep which is annoying, but it's not like I can do anything about that. I wish I had time to discuss all this before the day had ended.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg4993#msg4993

Okay, Andrew's post. On itself, not too compelling. He agrees to making a factual mistake of sorts, and confuses a role:

"I do believe that, yes, once the doc is able to substantiate his claim (both that he is the real cop AND that the other claimer is actually scum), he should, as Soppy would say, take the shot and take the scum down."

Generally, since we're recalling mafia precedents, what I'm getting here is the Super in NR vibe, especially since retarded as those things are, he did manage to get a counterclaim from our real cop.

The one thing I did feel better about is that while Andrew agrees that a certain sense of urgency exists in his previous posts, he's clarifying that he's not going for days 1/2 counterclaims.

The follow up post is actually interesting. Since Andrew isn't, you know, Tom, and the claim is easily-verifiable, it would have been enough for me to stave off my vote.

Okay, so now that I'm off Andrew's case for the moment, let's look at the follow-up posts. smodge's is interesting in that he calls out Otter, and Otter does seem to be too quiet. Is it a tell? In the two games he did this (Discworld and Random), he was scum in one and town in another. But lurkers are bad for town, since not speaking up = others not getting a read on you, so I'll be looking at him next if this continues. I can also understand why Andrew would vote for Patchu (especially if he's town, and thus the only thing he's sure of is himself).

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5003#msg5003

This is puzzling from QR. Like I said earlier, Andrew's got an easily-verifiable role. In fact, you guys should've just reached a consensus and had him kill the scummiest-looking person around to benefit town. I can see the arguments for waiting until there is ample time for discussion, but given the risks of braving the night... a difficult call to make. But I think the choice there should have been between calling Andrew out on it right away to both prove his allegience and aid us by giving us a mostly-confirmed townie (after expending his oneshot vig he would be just vanilla, so the target on his back during the night lessens) and waiting the night out to allow any investigative roles and good old investigative discussion give us more input before actually using the vig power. I entirely don't see where voting for him is an acceptable option, QR.

Agreement with OK that Andrew's posts gave more insight into his thought process. I find myself disagreeing with him even more, now (you'd spend the oneshot vig during day 1, randomly, because you choose to trust Tom and some people don't? yeah). However, the sense of Andrew = scummy has lessened in the process, and I can get along with people who play the game differently, as long as we're all doing our best to win.

QR later unvotes Andrew and goes for Patchu. I can't find fault with her logic there, or her urging Andrew to use his power as soon as possible, and give his target a chance to convince him it'd be a bad idea (ie standard pre-lynching defense). Since Andrew says he intends to use it as a second lynch for a day, that seems sensible.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5030#msg5030

Cid doesn't look too good here. A few things:

He speculates on doc protection and the like. I've been after these things from the start, perhaps because a disproportionate ratio of posts by different players seem to discuss roles. I have admittedly been overzealous here, looking back on how the flips went, but I can't help but see each new instance of this in a bad light. With that said, I'm looking closer at your post. And the rest of it doesn't look too hot, either. I've stayed on Andrew due to genuinely believing him scummier than Patchu AND because I had a chance to get that scummy-looking person lynched instead of someone who seemed like a flailing townie to me. My vote was certainly not cast with the intent of letting it go to waste. Yet yours is, unless you believed that with under 2 hours to go I was suddenly a candidate for lynching.

So yeah, FoS, etc. Explain yourself.

On Alex, and commenting I look suspicious for daring to think outside the box (or, in other words, for looking beyond the train that formed for shaky reasons and threatened to occupy the entire day), I guess I'm willing to fight for my beliefs, just like QR said about herself. If playing the way I do and going aggressively after those I see as scummy gets me lynched? Still better than lurking in the shadows unhelpfully and voting with the herd. May my efforts benefit town, at least, even if I won't be around to see it.

On Tai's post. Eh. It was all about Andrew, and proving his allegience by a display of powers or a flip pretty much makes the debate moot. Yeah, I see no reason to keep at it by this point.

Page 29, QR talks about fears of not surviving the night, etc. It just caught my eye because it's not the first time she talks of dying horribly at the hands of scum. Except, you know, she doesn't. Just seems odd, and gets odder the more I hear about this from her/the longer she survives despite that.

And then there's the flip. Patchu... well, at least she wasn't lying about vanilla, or it could've been worse. The Martyr bit... well, I hadn't found the Patchu case compelling (yes, there were tells; I just saw a different way of reading them), and the suspicion on Chisa seemed to stem from largely the same reasons. I can't say I'm too surprised over him flipping as town. And, quite unexpectedly given Tom's claim/immediate death, we have Andrew around for the day. I fully support the idea of having two lynches today, as I've stated before (both in this post and other games when it's come up). Today, I'll be catching up and briefly glancing at the newest posts for any developments. I'm sure there are arguments on whom to vig, but merely skimming them means an ineffectual opinion from me at most, so I'll just stick to the usual thorough read.

Otter

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #572 on: January 22, 2008, 06:26:18 AM »
Note that I didn't tell Andy "You should have drawn the NK!"  I've questioned him on his (borderline lying, with plenty of shady and intentionally misleading hints) effort to avoid the NK, though, and here's why.

If Andy (I'm assuming again that he's honest, for the purposes of this conjecture) were targeted by the scum, and assuming that no one decided to protect him, he'd have half a chance of dying and that would be that; town would lose the extra turn granted by his kill and this would be bad, although someone else would survive that night as a result.  However, the other half of the time?  With his dodge, he'd gain the town another turn in addition to his kill (so town's now up TWO turns instead of one), while confusing the scum into thinking Andy might be bulletproof.  I don't think this is a bad gamble to take, and I'm pretty sure I'm not fine with the "I was telling half-truths and generally adding to the confusion with my little hints, but hey I had a reason" if the reason was just to avoid taking that risk.

The latest full disclosure from Andy doesn't really change anything.  I'm glad he's not going into more detail on the evade.  There's still a power he can't/won't tell us about yet.  To be honest, though, I'm somewhat reassured by the general response I've gotten and, unless Andy fails to follow through with this daykill, I'll probably back off.  My choice for daykill right now would have to be QuietRain.

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #573 on: January 22, 2008, 06:30:45 AM »
Well, all her posts -are- above 100 words, if barely. Yes, I just checked. No, I did flip through the topic by hand and check. Yeah.

Okay so. We have, if I can believe QR, post-restricted, slow cop of questionable sanity investigating a miller and getting town.

......

I have no fucking clue what to think of this.

##Unvote: QuietRain for now.

Yeah. Uh. Multiple problems are flickering through my head right now and I've got no clue in the hells what to do here. I'm going to specifically request the 24 hours from you, Andrew, because augh what. -_- If gut is right, I'm suddenly -very- leery of having QR be the dayvig target. I... saying why may assist scum, is the problem, but I've got two theories that may explain it... The second one, I can at least hint at; please remember I failed night 1 and specifically used quotes when I said my ability "worked" last night... well, uh. Since... ...damnit, saying anything more borders... ainfjibhsdjkfnv.

Words are difficult, ze. Thinking is difficult more.

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #574 on: January 22, 2008, 06:34:52 AM »
I dislike people basically implying my thoughts are wrong because of things they can't tell me. Especially on gut. I don't feel like I'm going to be able to contribute further to the discussion that's going on between the words that everyone seems to be able to read but me.

Ugh. Assuming QR and Tai are NOT Vig'd, does anyone have other candidates they'd like to put forward?
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