Author Topic: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic  (Read 126028 times)

AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #575 on: January 22, 2008, 06:37:55 AM »
Point A:  "I just skirted the truth, I didn't actually tell a lie" is nearly a lynchworthy statement by itself.  Lynch All Liars has its purpose in the spirit, not the letter.  Misleading the town, lying to the town, SAME THING.  Don't mince words like that.  Another point against Andrew to me.

Fair enough. I obviously can't argue what I did, but I will simply remind that I did my damndest to sneak around scum while still hinting at the truth of my abilities so that town could track them all back. Perhaps I was too ham handed in this case, and I suppose I will take it as a lesson for the next time I play. In the end though, you have to realize, when I say that I'm doing things to save my life, I'm protecting a town resource.

Quote
Point B:  A townkill is vastly more useful than a 50% chance to block a scumkill.  I completely disagree with Otter, losing the townkill is a risk that should not have been taken.  And it wouldn't have to have been, if Andrew had declared his townkill and made it available for use earlier.

Fair enough. Once again, I'll take this as advice for future games. With a one shot kill power, I thought it was more important to save it for a slightly later day than one where we'd still be pretty much shooting in the dark. If I was mistaken in thinking that, I apologize. 

Quote
Point C-1:  You can't discuss your last quality so you have not told us everything you have at your disposal.  I understand that you can't discuss it and believe that much at least, as I believe Tai's claim. 

Point C-2:  Immune to all non-kill night actions?  ... seriously?  In addition to a vig power, 50% chance to evade kills, and an unknown and nondiscussable power?

C-1 I have nothing to add to. C-2... right on count one, right on count two, somewhat right on point three, somewhat right on point four. I will continue to leave my evasion's status unclear at this point.

I'll use my kill tonight, since that seems to be the general direction of things, and do what it takes to get the me issue cleared up. I obviously will strive to stay alive, but I will not turn my kill power around on you guys or anything of the sort. I feel fairly trashy that my attempts to evade scum and use my abilities to their full extent have caused this much of a problem for town. I've come dangerously close to crossing lines that I shouldn't have (especially given my general irritation with some elements of town play currently) in the interest of keeping myself alive, which I felt was an important trick, as I had the ability to essentially shift things in town's favor through nightkill evasion and through vigging. Given the nature of these abilities, I felt that merely implying my abilities and saving them until I felt they could be used to their fullest was the best way to aid town. Yesterday, I prioritized the vig ability by trying to keep scum off my back (or, at the least, give them reason to hesitate). Again, I've done my damndest to make it clear that I wasn't revealing my actual powers and leaving it up to the prying minds of both town and scum to come to terms with on their own.

So. Really, that is all I can say at this point, besides a brief apology for making things just a bit more confusion by playing dangerously close towards self-serving. If you've got anything in particular you want me to address at this point or any questions, feel free to toss them at me. I'll be bombing in the next couple hours, unless the swing goes massively in favor of 24 hours.

Otter

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #576 on: January 22, 2008, 06:39:19 AM »
Okay, yeah, wasn't thinking in terms of 3rd party but now that Alex mentions it, it makes perfect sense.  Remember that post where I enumerated Andy's powers based on the hints thusfar?  With daykill/nightkill, night protection, and other possible stuff included?  At that point, I already thought it was glaringly too much, hence my asking "Is this plausible?"  Now he's piled the "Immune to non-kill night actions" thing onto it and it looks ridiculous, for either townie or scum.  I agree with Alex's assessment that 3rd-party looks closest, with the caveat that it could still just be a lying scum with no actual abilities (or a daykill, even, I guess...) who's trying to act like a jack-of-all-trades and failing by inventing powers that are rather sharply too good.  Implied threats earlier along the lines of "I'll use my kill to protect myself if I have to" = "Don't vote for me or you might die" have been contributing to my negative vibe.  I changed my mind, the cooperation from Andy was very nice but backing off would require some extraordinary evidence in his favor at this point.

Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #577 on: January 22, 2008, 06:43:26 AM »
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I'll be bombing in the next couple hours, unless the swing goes massively in favor of 24 hours.

I rather think it already has. The situation at this point is clear as mud, with pretty much no arguments established beyond possibly-conflicting, and on one side incredibly vague roleclaims. If you're serious about using this kill as a second lynch instead of your own personal bullet, you need to give town enough time to actually work the decision out.
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AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #578 on: January 22, 2008, 06:46:11 AM »
Didn't actually read the dozen or so posts that sprouted up while I was on that last post. What time is the 24 hour mark at tomorrow?

Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #579 on: January 22, 2008, 06:47:46 AM »
About 6 PM Eastern, I think? Roughly 16 hours from now.
"Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology."
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Kilgamayan

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #580 on: January 22, 2008, 06:51:21 AM »
My Day-starting post was made at 5:12 PM Eastern. It is currently 1:51 AM Eastern.

Speaking of which bbl bed


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #581 on: January 22, 2008, 06:55:02 AM »
I should be around to lynch at 2pm PST tomorrow. My vig use works as such at this point: I will kill whoever is not me with the most votes at 2pm PST (or, if something comes up, the soonest moment after that that I am in front of a computer long enough to type out the kill command.

Otherwise, I'm available for a few hours to deal with issues, because I want to clear my part in this as much as I can.

Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #582 on: January 22, 2008, 07:04:17 AM »
So... instead of hemming about how much time we should take to make the decision, can we, yknow, get to making it?  Personally I'd like to get it through as soon as possible, to avoid a repeat of day 2, but whatever.  I have nothing new to say about who we should vig.  Tai is probably my top choice at present.

Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #583 on: January 22, 2008, 07:07:49 AM »
So much to read up on.
Just a post to say i'm here, not much to strengthen my argument but personally i think QR is lying scum, 2 roleclaims and she attacks the person AFTER the claim?, it doesn't seem like a brilliant scum strategy but it seems the most understandable thing out there at the moment.

As for others i suspect.
Cid/Nitori haven't posted in a while, then again as many posts as there are this whole thing hasn't been going for long, it will however be interesting to hear their thoughts.

Either way all these convoluted claims out there are confusing me heaps.

Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #584 on: January 22, 2008, 07:16:22 AM »
Alex, i know we should be cautious on killing QR because there is the slight possibility she is telling the truth, but she has said she can't use her investigation tonight, what are the chances of her surviving both tonight AND tomorow night in order to make an investigation in order to prove her innocence more fully? Or even find how sane she is for that matter?

Sure IF she is a cop killing her will be doing the scums work for them, but it will reveal if Tai is telling the truth or not.

The main reason you stated to kill Tai was because we don't want to hit a possible cop.
But the simple reality of it is that cop probably won't live long enough to make use of her power anyway.
So personally i think its better we go with Vigging QR, she looks more scummy to me, and Tai seems more town.

AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #585 on: January 22, 2008, 07:26:38 AM »
I'm iffy about both QR and Tai, but given the circumstances, my preferences lay on the side of QR.

Outside of that... lemme think on it.

Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #586 on: January 22, 2008, 08:33:26 AM »
This post was originally a chart displaying what we learn from vigging QR and Tai. 

After I typed it out and thought about it, I deleted it all, because every possiblity was the same.

You know what - after thinking this through, we don't learn *anything* about the other one from killing either of them, because of the possibility that they are *both* lying.  There is, therefore, no point to killing either of them for information. 

Therefore we should use the kill on whoever looks scummiest.

I don't think either of them looks scummy, myself.  I just don't see the argument on how QR looks scummy.  Laying it out would be welcome here.  So, for me, I'm going back to Otter, Hal vs Tonfa, Corwin and to an extent Smodge.  ... and Yakumo, and OK, whom I oddly can't remember much from, and...

asdf


Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #587 on: January 22, 2008, 08:49:02 AM »
Here's why i think QR is scum.

1. She voted for Tom even AFTER he claimed cop.
2. She pushed to lynch Andrew AFTER his claim.

2 People claim to have abilities that which can be used to better help town, both times she wanted them dead.

Either Tai or QR have to be lying (unless QR is Nieve 2/3 cop, which sounds very unlikely, although with the roles Andrew and Tai have come out with it is seeming more likely now that i think about it).

Hypothetically if Tai is scum, what does he gain by claiming Miller?
We would mislynch a 2/3 cop, most likely turn around and lynch Tai 1 for 1 trade off, which isn't in the scums favor, this can also only happen if Tai is godfather.

Hypothetically if QR is scum, what does she gain by claiming 2/3 cop.
She gets credibility, More time to work with, and more excuses why her powers won't work, so because its a 2/3 cop and not a normal one its twice as hard to work out if she is scum spreading misinformation because she can always just claim "i need tonight to recharge" or "roleblocked last night" or "yeah i targetted the dead guy", a normal cop gets busted easy enough eventually, a fake 2/3 cop however would be harder to bust, still doable, but it would be harder to work out if they're actually a 2/3 cop or scum pretending to be 2/3 cop.

There is the possibility that they're both lying, but isn't that a win/win regardless of who we kill?.

Sierra

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #588 on: January 22, 2008, 09:39:44 AM »
MY BRAIN HURTS.

Then we'd better remove it, no? Seriously, though, likewise here. I just had to read through ten pages. Ten pages! Jeebus.

....you what?

Okay, I'm calling it right now. Kilga is a crazy man.

Seconded for truth. Shale is on the ball this day/night/morning/whatever.

More seriously...

Cor: I didn't buy the case against mia on day two and you were my next best suspect. Too much of the talk about Andy stemmed from what I believed to be a misreading or overreaction to his speculation on roles. It seemed possible that this could be scum blowing something out of proportion. Now, I don't see any good reason to not have a vote down and the end of a game-day, hence the nod. Given that we had pretty much the same reasons for staying off mia's case, perhaps there's cause to retract this and back off for now, but I will be paying close attention to you (as well as going back and rereading the whole conversation to see if my initial impression holds up). In any event, other matters have my attention for the moment. Namely, QR/Tai/Andy stuff.

On Andrew: One-shot vig, immunity to night actions, 50% chance to dodge nightkills? And an unmentionable mystery power? I've gotta say, this is one hell of a broken role. Someone on the scum side could fabricate all that (I'm not going to think about a townie making all that up) and probably get away with most of it. But the vig power? Not likely. If someone making that claim didn't come through to the town's satisfaction, they would be lynched. It'd be a stupid claim to make as scum (1-1 is not in their favor), and someone counting on that assumption to help them blend in is far too much into WIFOM territory for me to consider. I'm willing to bet Andy is not scum. Given how potentially unbalancing that stack of powers is, though, meta reasons kinda lead me away from reading him as town now. Third-party seems very likely (apparently a non-hostile one), but this doesn't mean we can't take advantage of what he has. He's put the daykill at Town's disposal, and at least by this day we have some information to work off of (I am extremely glad he didn't use it day one!)

As for the target? ...Resolving the QR/Tai mindscrew one way or the other gets my vote. It's pretty much monopolized present discussion and I think it best that we conclude it. People have been over the possibilities already, I know, but I have to hash this out in print for my own satisfaction (if I don't write everything down, my train of thought derails within five seconds).

First off, I think it's very unlikely that Tai's lying about being a Miller. Not after a cop has come back saying an investigation found him to be Town. Scum could make such a lie to discredit a cop, sure--but if we killed the cop as a result of his statement and she turned up Town, we'd turn around and go after him next. Again, 1-1 trades are not in scum's favor. It would be much more beneficial for scum to nod and smile, and take advantage of that false Town read over the long run (remember how much mileage Excal got out of this in Discworld?); immediately calling the supposed cop's reliability into question draws too much attention and would be such an insane gamble that I can't see Tai making it.

Given that assumption, there are a couple possibilities:

A) QR is lying and Tai called her out on it. Given how QR reacted to Tom's shenanigans, I highly doubt that she herself would do this as town, so the course of action here is pretty clear.

B) QR is telling the truth, which means she's either a naive cop or an insane one. Neither is of much use, especially since she apparently can't use her power tonight (which...is oddly convenient in not providing us any more information to parse through). This basically means we won't get new investigation info from her until day five, and it's kind of unlikely the scum will let her live that long anyway (though it should be noted that we still lose a very analytical townie in this scenario). A naive slow cop is a pretty out there role, but...I have to refer everyone to Shale's very apt observation that Kilga is bonkers. It already looks like this game's loaded with wacky roles, so I won't discount the possibility.

Tai looks pretty damn good if QR flips scum. If she flips town? I still think it unlikely that scum would take such a risk just to nail one person (even a cop). I sure as hell don't think we should turn around and lynch him immediately if QR turns up Town. Going over his posts with a fine-toothed comb is always prudent, of course. On the balance, if one of them is scum, then I think we're more likely to be successful hitting QR. The question of "Would QR lie even as scum?" nags at me somewhat, (as this gaffe nicely illustrates the dangers of pretending to be a cop in any circumstances, and this seems like something she should know), but she does seem like the better target here. So:

##Vote: QuietRain

EDIT: Blah, ninja'd by a couple people. I don't think the last couple posts change where I stand, but...Alex's post does ring true in regards to the fact that I hadn't really considered QR much before this. Other possibilities he mentions?

Otter...for what it's worth, I think this is a playstyle difference between him and you, Alex. I can see his reasons for considering that a worthwhile risk. As for Otter outside of that exchange? Having trouble remembering his other posts. Not sure that means something or not, given my memory, but I don't believe he's been as active as we're accustomed to! Will have to go back and reread.

OK: One or two posts a day with a chunk of analysis seems to be his style in pretty much every game, regardless of which side he's on. Whether his posts in this game have lacked content is the real question here. Again, I will go back and check up on him after work today. I need to go grab a couple more hours of sleep before I get up for real.

AndrewRogue

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #589 on: January 22, 2008, 10:05:41 AM »
Blech. Since this is another in the large pile of posts that is coming down on me for evasion power, and given that it is quickly becoming a moot point in how much it matters as I'm shaping up as the lynch target tonight, let's finish the evasion thing and add one small reminder. My 50% evasion against night kills was a one time deal. If it failed, I died, if it succeeded, I lived and lost the power. In other words, I have (or rather, had) one shot evasion, which puts my abilities at...

1. One-shot vig.
2. One-shot 50% evasion.
3. Immunity to night actions.
4. Thing I can't talk about.

As far as the reminder goes, well... actually, I have two of them. The first and foremost is to say that just because I said I had another quality, doesn't mean it is a good thing. Secondly, since a lot of the suspicion from me is coming from both an admittedly self-preservation style (which was, in the end, a poorly played attempt to beat scum and support town) and a wide array of powers... I do need to say that I've basically come forward with all these abilities myself. Yeah, it took a bit of pressure to get me to unfold all of it, but I have come forward with a lot of things that I could well have just kept to myself.

My play may have ended up a little rough but, well, try to look at it this way. Beyond the bit of confusion I've sewn from mediocre (which I'm trying to play), where have I really hurt town, or even attempted to be anything but helpful? Yes, there was some self preservation to it, but that was in the interest of being useful to town (I had a useful power and what have you) and disrupting scum action.

So, with that out, before I sleep, I'm... mrgh. I just feel uncomfortable with QR all around this game because of her very... unusual to me at least... actions, culminating in a cop claim that was supposed to avoid wasting time and has now, ironically, piled on with me to have made even more of a mess of things. She's strongly avoided being on lynch trains. She's been unusually aggressive. And, of course, even as cop, she still went after Tom day one, which remains a risky choice. I can't really in good faith vote for her at this point, but she's definitely among my best candidates.

Otter... is getting near a case of LAL at this point, for being almost totally absent for two days, then coming out of the blue here.

Those're my two main candidates.

Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #590 on: January 22, 2008, 11:10:32 AM »
Here's why i think QR is scum.
Quote

Hokay.

"1. She voted for Tom even AFTER he claimed cop."

As did several other people - and out of that whole crowd, she had an actual valid reason to do so, if she's telling the truth about her power.

"2. She pushed to lynch Andrew AFTER his claim."

As did several other people (well, now at least, Otter and myself).  Andrew's behavior and claims haven't exactly screamed town alignment at any point in the game.  I don't see how either of these points on QR are very damning.

"At least one of Tai and QR is most likely lying."

This on the other hand is decent grounds for a case - but it could go either way and the grounds are by no means sure.  There are several not-too-farfetched scenarios wherein both could be telling the truth.  QR could be naive.  Or, other way around, she could be a supercop (Shikieiki does see the absolute truth of things, after all!) and be able to pierce millerdom (and godfatherness?) in return for her 2/3 usage.  Or someone could have messed with the targets somehow - even with just the stuff on the table so far it's becoming evident that Kilga is nuts and a bus driver or something along those lines.  (Scum, of course, since nobody's claimed anything like this.)  Occam's Razor, however, does agree that one of them lying is the simplest explanation... but it says nothing as to which one.

"If Tai is scum godfather, what do scum gain from this?"

We misvig a cop - making it three times in a row we've failed to kill scum - and then maybe decide to lynch Tai.  From El Cid's post:  "I sure as hell don't think we should turn around and lynch him immediately if QR turns up Town."  And he's not entirely wrong in saying that, we wouldn't kneejerk lynch.  In that position scum are pretty far ahead, and with a cop being killed, godfather loses some usefulness.  Assuming Scum Tai and Town QR, I could indeed see scum taking that route, thinking this way.

"If QR is scum, what does she gain claiming 2/3 cop?"

What Smodge said here.  It is a pretty convenient claim.  Assuming scum QR and town Tai, it's a pretty vanilla case of the fakeclaiming scum picking exactly the wrong townie to name.  Except... QR's attitude has breadcrumbed cop quite thoroughly and convincingly (to me at least).  And on day 3 we're getting into reasonable territory for another cop, if there is one, to counterclaim her given the current situation.  No one has.  (Mind you I am NOT saying they should, if this is the case!)  It is a minor point.

"There is the possibility that they're both lying, but isn't that a win/win regardless of who we kill?"

It... is.  I must admit.  Yet I still don't see the argument for it being QR over Tai.

------------

Andrew... oi.  His last couple of posts are speaking for themselves to the point where I almost don't want to go over them, for fear of being accused of harping on him.  But I should anyhow. 

His softclaims haven't been very hard to see through.  "My evasion WAS 50%, what it is now I'll let you decide" is tantamount to saying outright "it was oneshot and I ain't got it anymore."  What else is it gonna do, become 100% and make you Rumia, Mistress of the Night Actions?  Admittedly, softclaiming a power to stop a lynch and then having it turn out to be via killing one of the lynch voters was pretty unexpected.  Also not very pro-town. 

Again, the man's claiming he would vig a random Tom voter to protect the day one copclaim (protecting copclaim good, semi-random vigging very bad) and at the same time saying he didn't openly declare his dayvig to the town until late on day 2 (when he was under fire!) because he wanted to save it for when we had more information.  Unless I'm mistaken, these are two mutually exclusive stances. 

He asks where he's really hurt town or attempted to be anything but helpful, aside from the part where he lied to town.  That's one of those ironic self-answering questions, but I'll go ahead anyhow and say the answer is "When you threatened town and were willing to kill a Tom voter day 1."  And also "When you fished for cop counterclaims (and finally got QR to bite)."  And "When you were willing to put your own survival as your first priority, at the cost of misleading town about yourself."  This last being one of the surest signs of non-town alignment you can get.  He's still claiming to be doing his best to keep himself alive, at whatever price, and refuses to use his kill on himself even if town should vote that way - I can kind of understand that on gut, but seriously now, that's not how you play Team Town, read day 1 again and learn a lesson about taking one for the team. 

Speaking of his stance on QR, you'll notice I'm not even including those arguments above.  She was the subject today and knew it and claiming was the right thing to do in order to get us right to happy informed discussion time.  It stands in quite the contrast to Andrew's slow piecemeal softclaims, which have dragged out over the course of the whole evening tonight and have us only now moving to actually do things (and still wondering if there's anything ELSE he hasn't told us).  I don't see her as having strongly avoided lynch trains, given how she pushed the one on Tom.  She has been aggressive, which is a good thing for a townie to be.  Her going after Tom was indeed risky and I don't agree with it, but I can see her logic, especially assuming she's a cop herself, and don't consider it invalid. 

-----

I'm still ambivalent on using the kill on Tai/QR or using it on someone else.  If someone else, I think it should be Otter or Hal.  It's about the time of the game wherein lurker cases start pressing heavy on me.  Otter's been pulling his usual vanishing act, then showing up and making his one fairly obvious case, Hal's openly admitting that he's reading the game but posting in it "isn't one of his priorities."  There are decent cases to be made elsewhere, but those two stand out in my mind. 

-----

General don't drag stuff:  If we are agreed to use the vig on QR or Tai, which is where things seem headed, please kindly do it ASAP.  Don't drag days.  Don't take this attitude of "okay, 48 hours, we'll take 24 and 24 and use the entire period to the deadline."  S'no reason for it unless there's substantial new discussion happening, which I honestly can't terribly see.  I'd have preferred to see the vigging tonight, but blah.

Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #591 on: January 22, 2008, 11:11:02 AM »
Ah geez, the main quote screwed up on that.  Sorry about that.

Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #592 on: January 22, 2008, 11:40:10 AM »
What Smodge said here.  It is a pretty convenient claim.  Assuming scum QR and town Tai, it's a pretty vanilla case of the fakeclaiming scum picking exactly the wrong townie to name.  Except... QR's attitude has breadcrumbed cop quite thoroughly and convincingly (to me at least).  And on day 3 we're getting into reasonable territory for another cop, if there is one, to counterclaim her given the current situation.  No one has.  (Mind you I am NOT saying they should, if this is the case!)  It is a minor point.

I can see what you mean about a few things, unfortunately QR is still on top of my list, no one looks worse to me so far (Although Andrew draws another debate about whether he is Town or 3rd party i have no idea).
In Tsukihime mafia where Otter claimed Inventor role and showed his breadcrumbs, it was pointed out a well planned scum COULD breadcrumb for their fake claim, i am thinking along these lines, picking the wrong townie out of the lot in my personal opinion is the simplest answer to this and hence i find it the more likely.

Personally i have no clue about Otter and Halbarad so i have no qualms about vigging them, they are acting lurkerish so it makes sense.

Curiosity Alex, what are the odds of there being another cop out there to even counterclaim? i know its metagaming and shouldn't be relied upon but so far we have had.

1 Illusionist
1 Doublevoter
1 Martyr

We also supposedly have
2 people with various abilities (Tai/Andrew)
1 2/3 cop

This is a very powerful town, makes me wonder what the scum have to help them out.

Anyway off to bed, leaving my vote where it is, because if it wasn't on QR it would go to Andrew who i can't really see vigging himself (understandably).

Corwin

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #593 on: January 22, 2008, 12:02:13 PM »
Right. After the day starts, people comment on how they have nothing to comment on.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5176#msg5176

Now we move on to smodge, who says Andrew's power being used confirms 'us' a townie. Had it been anyone else I'd have asked them how exactly it even begins to confirm anyone but Andrew as anything but a liar by using it (nothing prevents him from being non-town aligned and still having a oneshot dayvig power). If smodge is talking about how we'll lynch townies and confirm them postmortem? He does realize that as dead townies we're kinda useless to town itself, barring an unlikely zombie role, right (or by giving confirmation of a claim, which at this time only Andrew has put forth)? Eh. I guess I want to know what exactly smodge was thinking of, here.

Agree with him on Shale, whose nonpresence I highlighted previously myself.

Next is Hal's post. I'm glad to see him participate without votes piling on him; I consider that a good sign. I would like him to post about someone other than Tonfa, though. While his points there are valid, I would like him to talk more about the rest of the players. No specific questions at this point, just enough to see Hal from another angle and compile a better read on him.

EDIT: And here's Hal doing some of what I asked for, here:

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5204#msg5204

Those who know me would also know that I agree entirely with using the dayvig, dividing the day in two (so that we have a clear deadline, just like with a proper lynch) and the majority decision is likewise clear. We can't well hammer someone, as that results in the real lynch. However, I would like the majority to be quite clear, such as -2 to hammer or the area of. Part of the point of a lynch is having people argue for/against lynching Person X and then committing to it with a vote. A shaky majority of 4 people with everyone else sniping from the sidelines won't tell us as much.

Utter hate for Yakumo's "and Corwin hadn't popped in to address them yet" timed 2:31am my time while the entire last RL day was clearly 'night' in the game during which I couldn't post, nor was the day 2 ending at a reasonable time RL for me. On a reread of that sentence, it's not hate for Yakumo specifically, but in general for expecting me to respond when he knows I simple can't, not won't (from having played with me in Tsukihime, for example). And bah, in itself, it's not actually suspicious, just way too irritating.

Wow, QR roleclaims. I don't like the way she phrases it: "So, I'm going to see if I can take myself out of the running with a roleclaim as Andy said I was his main target." This makes it sound as if a roleclaim in itself placed her beyond doubt, and in a game where the only verified claim was actually a lie (by town, admittedly, so it's not any kind of sign of scummitude).

I'm torn as to whether I should understand her behavior or not. She didn't believe Tom was a cop because she's a cop variant? So... the idea of two cops, especially if one of them isn't a full cop, and in a largish game like ours... is so out of the question? I can get behind 'not flipping believing' Tom, however, and that's valid enough for me to accept her actions. I had some reason to doubt his specific claim, myself, but most of it came down to it being TOM and that his claim was delivered in a way that instantly made me think he was trying to save his ass. That cost town a power role of indeterminate nature (custom illusionist, whatever it is), and a few other things, since I would have likely traded Tom off for Strago as a player on our side. Oh well, it's a done deal by now.

And finally, a claim that Tai = Town. With the way he stuck his neck out to defend Andrew day 2, I'd tend to concur. It just feels a bit too far for scum to put himself on the line, and for little gain from what I can see.

Reading on....

Andrew claims two night kill attempts. To clarify, does he mean on himself? Or is that a power of his that lets him know all kill attempts a given night? Were there two kill attempts night 1 as well, if the latter? And he notices the irony of QR's roleclaim right on the heels of the long debate we had over roleclaims, particularly from cops. I'll have to reread that segment to see which side of the divide QR advocated, to see if there's some inherent contradiction. But that's for later, and right now it's more important to me to catch up.

And double wow, Tai counter-claims a miller, which brings all kinds of sanity questions to QR, if she is not flat out lying. If Tai = Scum, it's a bit of a dumb gambit to get QR killed... and for what? An unfavorable exchange rate for scum? Tai didn't seem particularly suspicious to people so far, aside from a case of lurking, so why would he do this as scum? I'm tempted to accept his claim, but QR isn't Tom and cop claims in general should be tentatively accepted and checked....

I can't decide at this point, but maybe the answer's ahead, somewhere.

To Rat: Yes, pretty much. Some people may or may not be prone to groupthink. Some I know better, and you happen to be one of them. When you do it, it's definitely weird. Also, following apparent groupthink and all, you were town in Discworld, which should actually support my argument, not draw away from it. I'm allowed to learn from experience, I hope.

My reasons for the Andrew case have been detailed in the other posts, so if you're still not satisfied with my reasoning after reading them, ask me specific questions and I'll try to clarify what I can.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5213#msg5213

Shale's post. 1 is possible; 1a is not something likely, given that Tai has thrust himself into the spotlight where he wasn't there before. It just doesn't work for me. 2 is... possible. Eh. QR is always so hard to read. I was convinced she was on the side of good in NR, and... yeah. 3 is... well, what's the point? If we have another cop, they'll be able to get a read on him and come up town. Also, if QR gets lynched, scum lose their godfather who was cleared by a cop (unless Tai talks fast, I suppose, but it's an awful gambit to try). Just think about this for a moment, does that sound even remotely likely? The godfather role exists to draw a cop to clear them, so who would just do this? In fact, if we buy the cop claim more, we might trade the claimed miller to confirm or disprove it, and end with the outcome of dead scum godfather/living and confirmed cop.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5215#msg5215

smodge, in something that needs to be quoted:

Quote
Regardless, i thought QR was scum and voted for her before the claim, so i'm willing to stick with it regardless of the claim.

Emphasis mine. It just... argh. Here's what he says a page earlier when he votes for her (http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5176#msg5176):

Quote
##Vote: QuietRain
I'm not sure whether its just bad town, or really really obvious scum, twice now we have had people roleclaim a town power, and twice she has voted for those people AFTER the claims.

Please explain the difference to me between voting for someone after a roleclaim and leaving your vote on someone after a roleclaim. For the life of me, I just see semantics. If that was enough for you to vote QR, is that enough for me to vote you? I dunno, but you don't look so good with this logic.

And Andrew's last post for page 31 is as far as I got on my lunch break. I do agree that QR's choice of Tai is a bit puzzling. She went to investigate Tom on night 1, she claims, which is not something I would have done before knowing whether he has a chance of living through the night. I would have gone for the people who gave off a neutral read or, perhaps, those who stayed on him like she did, but without a reason as apparently good as she claims (which I don't entirely buy into, but like I already said, the 'IT WAS TOM' and 'he behaved oddly even for Tom' part of the reason are enough for me). Instead, she targetted him... and then Tai? Not another claimed role? Not someone who might have been more active in overall discussion, not just Andrew's case? I'm not entirely comfortable agreeing with someone I've considered the likeliest scum candidate till his claim (and who could still be one, if we don't see the dayvig work as claimed), but I don't see much choice except concur with him here.

Okay. I think I'm going to comment as I read each couple of pages, since work today is being especially nasty (as it has a habit of being, lately, sigh). That's probably my best chance of getting thoughts out on things as I see them -- there could be information that makes what I'm pointing out now moot, perhaps... but likewise, some little thing I mention in my posts may suddenly become relevant to an ongoing case, so I don't feel that what I'm trying to do is useless. People, especially under pressure, far too often forget what they argued in the past, and might be caught in a contradiction, if not an outright lie.

Kilgamayan

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #594 on: January 22, 2008, 12:08:30 PM »
Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

QuietRain (4): Smodge13, CarthRat, Yakumo, Taishyr, El Cideon
Tonfa (1): Halbarad
Corwin (0): Yakumo
AndrewRogue (2): Otter, Ran

Love Count:

Chen (2): Yukari, Ran
Everybody (1): Taishyr
Marisa (2): Arisu, Ran

With 17 people still alive, 9 votes is a majority.

Little under 41 hours to go.


[22:28:39] <Edible> Mafia would be a much easier game if we were playing "spot the asshole"

Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #595 on: January 22, 2008, 12:36:17 PM »
Everything Alex just said has made me more suspicious of him than either of his so-called lurkers.

I disagree that they even qualify for the term. They may not be amongst the most frequent of posters, but they've definately been here; Hal racked up quite a few during the earlier debates around Tai and QR at the start of this day. I find it ludicrous to accuse him of lurking despite the way he's said posting is not a priority (which admittedly did not win points), 'cos like it or not, he HAS been posting and quite frequently just now. I'm not going to fault him when he is, y'know, participating. He's also been quick to answer questions when I've thrown them at him, which is good.

The way you attacked Otter just now also seems pretty, er, stupid. You're hitting him for going after an obvious case? Or because that's all he went after? Obvious cases are, in fact, *worth persuing* and it seems dumb to fault him here. Again, a quick look at his record indicates he has participated in the recent discussion. Whence do these lurker claims come? I don't like the way he seems to vanish (especially when I see him running around in IRC), but a case towards him saying that he's lurking is pretty weak at this point.  

No, I don't think either of these guys are good ideas for a vigkill, and I think you've exaggerated their lurkerish qualities way too much. There are better lurker cases to make. The one that stands out to *me* is Ciato, who has not really posted anything substantial since QR and Tai got up in each others stuff, or, y'know, all day. If we're going after lurkers, let's go for someone who is actually lurking. Nitori, as well, has only really weighed in with one post here-

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=329.msg5276#msg5276 which is kind of jabbing at QR but not really substantial.

With regards to QR/Tai, you've considered that yes, it's possible that both of them are lying (I actually can't see this myself, care to explain how this might come about?), and that the simplest excuse is that *one* of them are lying. I don't find the whole breadcrumb thing compelling and feel that QR has made several slips, *especially* that hasty and early vote for Andrew. I also disagree with you that she should have roleclaimed, as I've covered before; I don't feel she'd be under nearly so much pressure here had she defended herself normally. (Granted, I don't know where else that pressure would've *gone*, so I could swallow this.) I think we disagree about an awful lot, especially how willing you are to buy into the probabilities of odd role shenanigans going on; yeah, stuff like Andrew implies that we could well have some strange stuff out there, but we *can't possibly guess at what's really going on*. Scum copclaims are not uncommon. This is not an unlikely trap that QR could have fallen into.

The case against Tai was significantly weaker in my eyes until you said this, actually-

Quote
"If Tai is scum godfather, what do scum gain from this?"

We misvig a cop - making it three times in a row we've failed to kill scum - and then maybe decide to lynch Tai.  From El Cid's post:  "I sure as hell don't think we should turn around and lynch him immediately if QR turns up Town."  And he's not entirely wrong in saying that, we wouldn't kneejerk lynch.  In that position scum are pretty far ahead, and with a cop being killed, godfather loses some usefulness.  Assuming Scum Tai and Town QR, I could indeed see scum taking that route, thinking this way.
.

Basically I think your other ideas for viging are crud and what we've got going here is way, way more likely to get us some positive results, one way or the other.

<->

I am also taking a dim eye to Smodge's willingness to simply follow you blindly. (Re: Smodge: Scum have the power to KILL US and it's worked out pretty well for them so far. Your role speculation is, of course, completely pointless and potentially dangerous... although I didn't really read it as a real attempt to move discussion there. Still, let's not talk about what scum may or may not have like that.)
WHAT BENEFITS CAN ONE GET FROM SCIENTOLOGY?

Ranmilia

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #596 on: January 22, 2008, 01:07:49 PM »
In Tsukihime mafia where Otter claimed Inventor role and showed his breadcrumbs, it was pointed out a well planned scum COULD breadcrumb for their fake claim, i am thinking along these lines...

Curiosity Alex, what are the odds of there being another cop out there to even counterclaim?

Two different things being spoken of here, I was using the word breadcrumb as a metaphor.  Breadcrumbing by dropping a word or first letters of a sentence or something like that is easy to do - and easy to fake.  It proves nothing other than that you didn't come up with the claim on the spur of the moment.  Faking an attitude is much harder to do and consequently much more convincing.  As for counterclaiming, I'd say that the odds of us having at least one cop of some kind are quite high, virtually certain, so if you think QR's lying scum, the real cop's lying quite low.  I didn't see anyone else behaving coplike in the Tom affair.

Cor brings up a good point re: Andrew's wording.  I've been assuming that by "there were two nightkill attempts" he means the failed one on himself and the other resulting in Chisa-Youmu's death.  If this isn't what you meant, Andrew, please say so.

Cor also brings up a really good point regarding Smodge's play that slipped past me.  Smodge, why is your main stated case against QR something you're doing yourself? 

Rat:  I just said those were the two folks who stood out most in my mind.  Otter stands out mainly for his longterm vanishing act, I fault him for that, and my point about his contributions once he did appear is that they are not unique or risky enough to change my opinion of him as lurkish.  Hal stands out for a similar nonpresence with the exception of two spurts of posting, as well as for what he said in those spurts - he outright claimed to be not posting and deliberately not commenting one way or the other on the Patch case day 2. 

Oh, and this, which I found cause you made me go reread him just now:
So what about that first point on Tai accounts for the fact that QR could be LYING SCUM?  Scum knows who isn't scum, but they would NOT know Tai was a Miller!

She very well could be, I'm not saying it's impossible. What I AM saying is that if Tai gets vigged and comes up clean, we've got a clear lynch target.

The main difference is that if we do it the other way around (vig QR and she comes up clean) we've lost a cop in the testing process, since if she flips town it really, really puts Tai's claims in doubt.

It's quite possible that both are town, but I find it very unlikely that this is the case - you'd have to have naive limited cop QR for this to be the case, and I don't find that being a terribly high likelihood myself.

The main thing I'm coming down to is strictly a practicality assessment; if my guess about Tai's role is correct, it will be less useful than a cop will be. Given the choice of which of the two to sacrifice, I'll take the definitely-not-a-cop-and-spotty-success-power (which is as much as Tai has given us so far) over the cop claim.

Hey, look, it's XYZ!  (For the unacquainted:  If persons X and Y are on the block, and person Z says "We kill X, and if he flips town we kill Y," the proper thing to do is lynch Z as he is likely scum trying to set up a twofer.)  Granted it is tempered here by the two in question having competing roleclaims, and probably half the game feeling the same way (which is kinda bad, folks!), but as I said earlier, it's not impossible that both could be town.

So yeah Hal is definitely standing out to me, probably surpassing Otter now that I think more.  You're right on Ciato and Nitori as well.  There's too freakin many folks that you could make a lurker case on right now, though - I see people trying to do it on Shale as well, and I don't agree, he's got content in my eyes.  Or Smodge, or Yakumo.   Or Tai until his counterclaim here.  There is an ironic point to be made here about my picking out the lurkers that stand out to me, I suppose. 

Halbarad

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #597 on: January 22, 2008, 02:06:33 PM »
Hey, look, it's XYZ!  (For the unacquainted:  If persons X and Y are on the block, and person Z says "We kill X, and if he flips town we kill Y," the proper thing to do is lynch Z as he is likely scum trying to set up a twofer.)  Granted it is tempered here by the two in question having competing roleclaims, and probably half the game feeling the same way (which is kinda bad, folks!), but as I said earlier, it's not impossible that both could be town.

Except that at that point, show me someone who hadn't expressed the opinion that one of the two was lying - including you yourself. Lynching all liars is one of the mantras of the game, and it seems obvious to ME at least that if we lynched one and they turned up clean that the other one is the liar. There's an extremely outside chance that both are telling the truth - which I also posted previously (such as here), but general consensus to this point has been that one of the two is not being truthful, as it is the simplest explanation that fits all the facts we currently have available.

Not only this, but YOUR OWN FIRST POST ABOUT QR/TAI suggests that we do exactly this, for exactly this reason! You don't out and out say "if one flips town we lynch the other", but you've already hammered the "lynch all liars/lying can only hurt town" point after Tom's death (and with good reason) and you suggest that we have one vigged to determine the truthfulness of the other - so we'd then what, leave them alive since we know they're lying?

(To semi-answer Rat about the dual liars thing, the only scenario I can think of wherein QR and Tai BOTH are lying is that QR is pulling Cap'n K's Zombie Cop gambit from FFT (claiming cop to lend more weight to pure deductive reasoning), got unlucky in calling Tai who is actually scum, who then takes the opportunity to get us to nuke a townie and save scum the trouble. I can't see a reason for a townie Tai to lie about being a miller at all, unless he has some sort of win condition that means he has to have certain people dead or the like.)

Alex IS looking very scummy to me right now, but that's something to deal with later; I would actually push things back towards QR and Tai, at least for our vigging. Alex caught a lot of heat in Random Mafia for "tunnel vision"; while complete laser-focus on one case to the exclusion of all other things is bad, maintaining a central focus one -one case at a time- is a good thing. We can only lynch (or vig, in this case) one case at a time; we might have two kills today, but they won't be simultaneous, and so making -one- decision without diffusing all of our efforts in ten different directions is a -good thing-. I'm hardly the only one who has limited time available to post here; there is no way in hell I can research every single one of the lurkers Alex has thrown up before the vigging deadline comes up, and I doubt I'm the only one. Especially given his past behavior, this feels like a smokescreen to me.

The other thing that struck me as rather scummy (although you've since backed off) was the rather convenient avoidance of my question about why Tai's-not-really-a-claim-but-tons-of-clues instantly make him trustworthy. You've backed off that since then, but I find it rather fishy that you never even mentioned my request for explanation, even to say "I don't want to say anything more for fear of revealing the role".

Rat is also correct about your really odd choice of lurker targets; while neither Otter or myself are high on post count, all of Otter's posts that I can remember - and most of my own, aside from some of the rapid posting following the QR and Tai debacle - are not at all low on content. This is exactly why I went after Tonfa (and no, I'm not dragging that case up again here - it's more important to sort out QR and Tai first); he's got moderate postcount and no content. I merely use the case here as an example of the difference.

(Aside to Corwin: I will try to come up with more later, it's just that I prefer full topic rereads to come up with commentary on a player as I know I miss things on initial glances and do not like leaving gaping holes in my arguments - I'm already taking way more time than I should just to answer these points.)

And fdas;huignarlejgnuiaern ##DISCIPLINE: Ran for making me post from work, I really really really should not be doing this.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #598 on: January 22, 2008, 02:25:51 PM »
Replace "past behavior" with "other behavior". He hasn't started ringing scum alarms for me until quite recently.
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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #599 on: January 22, 2008, 02:33:58 PM »
Okay. I'm rereading all this discussion, but... Okay. Ran, Yakumo, someone who thinks you know what my role is:

Firstly, I can't roleclaim it. Emphasis on I. ...but, uh. Mrf. If it would help town to know it, frankly I leave the choice to reveal what you think it is to them. I can't confirm (would be claiming the role is mine), but silence can be telling, no? I've dropped enough details. Hopefully someone can pick up the pieces. (All pieces dropped are today, to help limit the search). If you think it won't help, your call, but people seem to be getting really frustrated about it so it may clear heads enough to let them think. I'd rather do it myself but. Uh. Yeah. If you think you know what it is, you know why I've been given Miller status, as well. It's irritating how well it all explains itself and I can't draw the line to make it nice and simple for people.

Also, to Alex, okay, so it's not just me thinking QR -miiiiight- be a supercop? Okay. I'm... this still feels massively like a FFT Sopko moment. But mrrr, it also... nyah.  Also, Alex, why would the real cop claim or indicate if he has nothing to contribute? Breadcrumbing's nice and all but if you're town and you fear observant scum, why leave them? Yes, you can point to them and go "see, here she/he/I was indicating this!" ... and scum can go "hey, lookit this, BANG BANG BANG." It's why I really really dislike breadcrumbing myself, but if you think you can do it well enough, bully.

Okay. Thinking about everything else, rereading QR, stomach is clenched constantly, I hear someone laughing in my head. Gazghf.