Touhou Mafia - Main Topic

[Sierra]

Hokay. If it has not been stated, we are on the road to Crazytown, population: Kilga.

So, supercop? This pretty much clears Tai beyond question. It sucks to have lost a cop, but having a confirmed townie is a good thing and I stand by QR being the best target at the time. As for OK's roleclaim...While OK could've made up other aspects of that reveal based on available information (QR taking action in Tom's direction, which she admitted to when she roleclaimed on day two; failing with the Andy investigation, which would probably go unquestioned given Andy's reveal today), Nitori could easily contradict OK if that part was a lie. He hasn't (and I'm not even entertaining the possibility that they're both lying. Two fake roleclaims from scum that close together? That would be ludicrous). So, I'm buying OK's claim for now.

Focus now seems to be on Nitori/Corwin after OK's roleclaim. So, comparing their cases:

A) Nitori. Posts in the usual Nitori fashion, occasional short posts that mostly have him flying under the radar and not making waves. It's so characteristic of him by this point that I have a hard time thinking it means much of anything. However...it kind of makes sense for a doc to want to avoid attention, at least as much as any Town role would. And...I hate to metagame to this degree (especially in a game as wacked-out as this one) and draw inferences from flavor, but doesn't Eirin have some abilities relating to medicine in the Touhou world? I recall reading this when I was scanning potential roles in the Touhou wiki. We shouldn't automatically conclude that the original context of Touhou will dictate roles here, obviously, but from what I'm hearing QR's role fit her abilities fairly well, so this isn't without precedent.

Also, it'd be a horrible scum move to fakeclaim doctor right now. Assuming we took Nitori at his word and lynched Cor on account of it, what would happen if Cor turned up Town? We'd kill Nitori the next day. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: 1-1 trades are never in scum's favor. Even if they could get a powerful town role mislynched in the process, it would still only arguably be worthwhile--and since Cor hasn't claimed, they wouldn't have a clue what his ability is. That's all too much of a gamble for me to buy it. I'm inclined to take Nitori at his word, though right now I don't even want to think about the implications of us having a lethal doc on our hands.

B) Corwin. I thought he looked odd for the way he went after Andy (who, I should add, I still think likely to be a third party) over what really seemed to me to be a purely hypothetical discussion. It seemed like a fabricated case, and town should not need to exaggerate things to make a point. It's hard to say more until he gets back and responds to all this, but he's felt strange for a while.

Breaking down their votes?

Corwin stayed on the Tomtrain at the end of day one, even after the roleclaim. This isn't damning by itself; QR didn't believe Tom either and we now know she was town. Nitori voted with the majority to lynch Strago.

Day two, Corwin continues his case against Andy by voting for him. Oddly, in the beginning of day three he criticizes me for voting for himself on day two, saying that it's a pointless vote that stands no chance of making a difference--while doing the same thing with his vote on Andy. What? The votegap between Andy/Cor and mia was the same (seven votes). Why the inconsistency here, Cor? Why is it okay for you to vote for someone you feel to be suspicious, but odd when I do it? I don't get this. I don't hold against him the fact that he didn't side with the majority--his stated reasons (getting a distressed townie vibe from mia, or a non-scum one at least) were the same as mine. I just found his remark on day three very odd.

Nitori votes with the majority against mia on day two. Okay, some find ineffective Town play a more rational reason to lynch than others. Personally, I side with Ciato in thinking lurkers are a much better option early on. I still disagree with this train, but I wouldn't call it a black mark on someone's record.

Today? They're both voting to dayvig QR. Okay, as much as I hold against Cor voting for someone claiming cop on day one, I can't fault him or Nitori here. I made the same call and I stand by the reasoning, so I can't in good conscience call someone scummy just for this.

Votewise, they look about even...so I guess that part was kind of a fruitless excercise, but I have to write everything out for me to actually know what I think sometimes. I really want to hear Cor's defense here, but for now I'm going to fall back on the logic outlined above the vote rambling and say that he feels more likely to be scum than Nitori at the moment.

##Vote: Corwin

Explain yourself, please.

~

Of course, the fact that he's sleeping right now means it'll be a while before we get an answer. I think it'd be worthwhile taking some lurkers to task in the meantime as well as debating Nitori/Cor, given that I think we have some time to wait before we hear from one of the defendants. If we know we're going to be stuck waiting for someone's input, we may as well try to avoid totally going in circles in the meantime. I am in desperate need of food/Simpsons and will try to tackle other issues when I get back, but I will say for now that Alex's Hal-heckling seems misguided to me. I'm pretty content with the Hat's recent input (though, saying you're cool with having a low postcount is admittedly not something that makes one look good here).

Blah, ninja'd by seven posts. Well, I don't think it changes anything I've said above.

(As an aside, it would be awesome if this and future mods would put links to the pages with day-ending votecounts in the initial post. It's a bitch having to go back and find those when you can only move two pages at a time).

[Smodge13]

Gah she was a supercop.
i guess this means we can asusme there is 1 godfather out there.

Now as for whether Andrew is town or 3rd party is an interesting debate, however seeing as there hasn't been 2 night kills in 1 night he's either choosing not to use it or is a fairly passive one, so personally seeing as he does no harm i believe we should leave him around until we catch all the scum, if we catch them all and the games still going, well we'll know who to turn on then.

Corwin vs Nitori i'm not sure what to think, Nitori has lower postcount, but a lot of corwins behaviour is mildly suspicious, rereading their posts now so i can decide.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Two different things being spoken of here, I was using the word breadcrumb as a metaphor.  Breadcrumbing by dropping a word or first letters of a sentence or something like that is easy to do - and easy to fake.

I just have to mention this, because wasn't it Alex that, ahem, breadcrumbed being a doctor with some acronym of his first line said in the game and he was scum? Not that this is relevent, it was just hilarious. I think it was in Ugly Old Mafia.

I'm mostly irritated that we killed a cop after claim, even after all of the screaming about "don't kill a cop claim!" Yeah, we probably did get the best possible result of information out of this flip - Tai's death wouldn't have cleared QR.

Call it mild irritation at the flipflopping on the part of town as a whole - from "don't ever kill a cop claim!" on Tom to "one of these two is probably lying, so let's lynch the cop first!"

The situations weren’t all that similar, frankly. The two most likely scenarios, at least in my mind, both gave us someone who was either scum who got busted or a useless, naïve cop. If a cop’s read is clearly false (and she wasn’t paranoid as proven by Day 1), then why would one assume that this cop is useful in any way? Sure, the reality was… well, that she was a very useful cop, but honestly that was a chance that I personally barely considered, and others are presumably the same. Comparing behavior to two different situations in the same light doesn’t really feel like the right thing to do. Obviously in hindsight we can smack our heads over it, but out of Tai and her? I still feel like that if Tai had turned miller, she’d have been killed regardless. It just sucks, but at least Tai isn’t dead.

Re: Ciato: The thing is... Mafia isn't what I'd call a nice game. Any form of emotional response can be easily faked. How am I supposed to respond to these things? "Oh, it's ok, you can have outbursts like this~/It's ok, slipping up over yourself is fine because you're new" just seems really wrong to me. I personally don't want to be labelled as someone easily swayed by such in future games, as there *is* a mafia metagame here as well (and it's stupid to deny it). There's also the point that, well, if a more experienced player reacted like Mia did, I'd be on them like a shot, you know? I don't think I really discriminate between new people and experienced people or anything like that so much as things just turn out that way. I will grant that I probably need to rethink the way I play, given my present success at fingering scum, but... part of that has to come from the rest of town as well, you know? When people react like she does- or like Tom does, and has- everything screams at me to vote for them.

Well, okay, whatever, you didn't address my point. Which is that you targetted me for trying to differentiate the difference between an angry person and a lying angry person. This is the part which I find so brutally offensive. If you want to think that bad players are automtically are scum, that's your (usually wrong!) right. But please tell me why me not agreeing with your philosophy makes me more suspicious, please?

LaL. We can agree on that at least. Let's see. There's you, but...

hur hur here is rope. Any additional responses have been deleted for the children.

About Corwin and Nitori: I want to see what Corwin has to say here before I make any impulse judgments on the matter, and see whose story I believe more. Quack/ineffective doctor is something I would believe in this game. <_< I don't really know about Corwin, but I think back to his Andrew stuff and I don't find it gives me any horrible tells. I kind of thought that multiple references to claims was... really weird on Andrew's part myself, since I don't find that type of hintdropping appropriate. Naturally there's a distinct possibility at this point of both Andrew being non-town and Corwin being scum, giving both Andrew a motive to try to out cops and Corwin a motive to cling to his argument very strongly.

In addition, since this hasn’t been brought up yet; do we have two people with the Watcher role, since Taishyr said he had that role, and now OK says he does?

Also, it'd be a horrible scum move to fakeclaim doctor right now. Assuming we took Nitori at his word and lynched Cor on account of it, what would happen if Cor turned up Town? We'd kill Nitori the next day. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: 1-1 trades are never in scum's favor. Even if they could get a powerful town role mislynched in the process, it would still only arguably be worthwhile--and since Cor hasn't claimed, they wouldn't have a clue what his ability is. That's all too much of a gamble for me to buy it. I'm inclined to take Nitori at his word, though right now I don't even want to think about the implications of us having a lethal doc on our hands.

Uh, Cid, in this situation, there is going to be a one-to-one trade regardless, so Nitori claiming doctor even if he was scum seems really reasonable. How is this a gamble at all?

After we get this Nitori/Corwin stuff settled out, I’d like to throw Otter’s ring into the hat. He has some fairly lengthy posts, but most of the content in them seems to be lecturing people and harping on Andrew. Honestly getting Andrew to spill about his role, regardless of if he’s town or third-party, seems to be overall something that scum would want. Tonfa has had one post today even after Hal questioned him further. I think Hal's been fine on content, even if not on posts (which I think is not a problem at all personally!).

More after a Corwin post, yes? ^_^

[Shale]

Alex: I think you're right that Andrew is more likely to be nontown than either Nitori or Corwin individually. However, I think either of them is more likely to be scum, and right now killing scum is more important. We've lost five townies without getting a single scum, and barring a doc save or other stroke of luck our numbers will look worse tomorrow. We need to cut scum's numbers down to size to prevent players who are actively working to get townies lynched from gaining more and more influence over lynches and discussions. If Andrew is a third party, that means he loses if scum gain a majority just like we do, so as long as we're on the ropes he has every reason to help us.

[Ranmilia]

That's two people in a row saying "I believe Andrew's a third party, but eh, let's not lynch him and talk about Cor/Nitori instead, maybe call out a few lurkers."

You people are freaking insane.  Do not suffer non-townies to live.  Do not judge him to be "nonthreatening," not when he's outright claimed a mystery power, may very well have more, and we've only got his word on any of it.

Edit for Shale - I honestly do not agree.  Scum or third party, non-town needs rope.  We fail to take Andrew out now and we may be stuck with him, like Grefter in WoT.  Lynching the wrong one out of the Nitori/Cor pair will put us in an even worse situation.  We know NOTHING about what Andrew really has and what his victory condition may be if he's third party - if he isn't a killing party he may very well have some other condition for victory that gives him no reason whatsoever to work against scum.  If you're worried about town numbers, Andrew IS the safest lynch.

Now, Nitori/Cor also needs to be resolved.  But it's lower than Andrew on my priorities list and I really don't like the leaning away from him now.  We're getting uncomfortably close to deadline, especially with Cor probably not showing up till most of us are asleep, to be starting up on other cases in earnest. 

That said... Cor/Nitori.

I disagree with pretty much everything Cid said.  I don't like Nitori's claim.  Flat out.  We already know that he isn't an effective doc.  OK's pinned the two of them down... assuming we trust OK, and I'm not really sold on that either, and I really don't like El Cid saying "Two scum wouldn't fake roleclaim to back each other up so close together!"... yes they would!

So anyhow, OK says Cor and Nitori both acted.  If OK is town (or scum watcher telling the truth, whatever), and one of the two is scum, as everyone seems to be assuming.... then whichever one is the scum is lost.  Scum Nitori would very much claim ineffective doc.  Why not?  It'd get us to lynch Cor first and have a chance of drawing out more roleclaims, from a real doc or from someone else who might have an ability related to the debate.  Yeah, we *might* lynch Nitori the next day... or we might not, XYZ.  And if the alternative is lynching Nitori first, scum wouldn't have anything to lose with this claim.  A 1-1 trade isn't good for them, but Nitori wasn't the initiator, and in the case Cid is assuming their alternative is a 0-1 loss. 

So no, I don't think Nitori's claim is any defense at all.  Believing it is is a fallacy that seems to be brought on by him being the first of the pair to claim what their action was. 

Not that it's a scumtell against Nitori, either.  The arguments Cid brings against Cor are good.  And so is the lurker charge brought by Rat/others against Nitori a while back.  I am on the fence and can't see either one as being more suspicious at the moment, there's stuff both ways.  What I really don't like at the moment (in addition to Andrew) is Cid's post.

[Otter]

I assumed that scum wouldn't have a daykill, which may be spurious but I need to make some assumptions here.  Since Andy actually activated a daykill, I'm pretty sure he isn't scum.  Again I messed up and forgot about 3rd party, though, which as Alex says is very much a possibility.  In fact, it's so much a possibility that I'd be onboard to lynch him right now, except I think we have a somewhat higher priority after OK's revelation.  If Andy's 3rd party, I think he's probably out of kills (after all, if he daykilled again, we'd lynch him immediately for lying about such an important thing) and while killing 3rd party is obviously important, we don't have any scum dead and we've almost certainly isolated scum between Corwin and Nitori.  We've already got a statement from Nitori on the matter, so my thinking is that once we've heard Corwin's, we should pick one and lynch.  So long as OK's telling the truth, Tom's murderer is definitely one of those two.

On the other hand... there's a chance that they're both townies.  If Nitori's actually telling the truth about the quack doc thing, and he's Tom's killer, then Cor could have targeted him with some other ability.  Meaning -three- townies targeted him that night.  However, this doesn't account for the scum NK, unless somebody blocked it.  No info's come up on that, so until further notice on that one, I'm going to guess that we're looking at the simpler case, being that Corwin or Nitori is a scum.

[Otter]

Alex: Andrew isn't a confirmed non-townie yet, unfortunately.  We've already seen SuperCop, I'm not willing to say it's impossible that we're looking at an uber Inventor here.  What's much more confirmed, by OK's detection, is that we've got scum present in either Corwin or Nitori.  Can you explain why you find that to be lower on your priority list?

[Yakumo]

Ciato, as far as the two watcher comment goes, I believe Tai's power is essentially to steal someone else's, hence his comment to me to pick up my stuff on the way home.  He tried it on me first, then Alice, is how I'm reading things.

Re: Andrew vs. Cor/Nitori - I tend to agree with Shale here.  Andrew needs scum      as much as we do, even as third party, and frankly?  With all the other crazy powers floating around and the fact that there's another part he can't talk about, which could be a huge downside for all we know, I'm not convinced he isn't town anyway. 

[Taishyr]

I...asdf so much to catch up on and sorry QR. -_- goddamnit.

The only thing I can say is that I do not think OK is lying about his ability. It is ... possible, but I am for now inclined to believe that he is being truthful (scum? Maybe! Role's likely true). I can't be more specific, blah blah roleclaim and die, but...yeah.

sadhdf. Suspicion lies on Cor myself personally, but I'm not sure and would need to reread. Could be that Nitori's usual scumtell isn't leading me wrong, but murr, since telling him of it I shouldn't be relying on it.

And now I wish I had never said anything re: being a Miller. Bloody fuggin' hell.

[Ranmilia]

Otter:  We know that one other person targeted Tom with something that night, that being OK, and we've only got his word that Cor and Nitori were the only others.   In the case of them both being town, my eyes would turn to the puppeteer.  You're right that one of them being scum is a simpler explanation, but I've no idea which. 

I do think your assumptions about Andrew are spurious and that he is a larger priority than what is to me 50/50 chance of mislynching another townie.  The one thing we do know about scum is that they surely don't have the numbers to be winning tomorrow, whereas Andrew very well might, if he's got a wonky third party win condition.  And with the strangeness of the roles in this game so far, I consider that not unlikely at all. 

I'd rather not give him that chance, and then look at Cor/Nitori tomorrow.  We should not panic and go "OH NO, WE NEED TO HIT SCUM, BONA FIDE SCUM!" when we've got a 50/50 shot at that or another townie and a much more certain nontown case. 

Edit for more comments coming in:  Andrew is 99% confirmed non-town to me.  I've been making my case against him all day.  Go read my previous posts.  He's constantly misled (aka lied to) town, his play has been inconsistent, he's played to keep himself alive at the expense of town and even admitted doing so, I see him as having fished for cops and been the driving force getting QR killed...  he's playing on Team Andrew, not Team Town.  Yakko, we cannot assume that he wants scum dead.  We have no idea what his goals are.  We have no idea if he wants scum dead.  If he's nontown, all bets are off.  We cannot count on him to be working with us.  And I firmly believe him to be nontown. 

[Yakumo]

And I firmly believe the same thing about Corwin, which is why I'm voting him.  I really can't see a third party showing his hand on day one like Andrew did, even if only a little, and especially not confirming it, and hiding the limited powers he has makes some sense to me.  I really don't understand why you seem to think acting to preserve a powerful role is a bad thing, either.  He's supposedly immune to all night actions but kills and had a shot of dayvig, why shouldn't he try and protect that?  He's the only player that he knows for sure is town, after all, and that's a fairly strong power.  I also find it hard to believe that the scum would get a daykill, though I can't discount it with everything else going on. 

[Luther Lansfeld]

Not that it's a scumtell against Nitori, either.  The arguments Cid brings against Cor are good.  And so is the lurker charge brought by Rat/others against Nitori a while back.  I am on the fence and can't see either one as being more suspicious at the moment, there's stuff both ways.  What I really don't like at the moment (in addition to Andrew) is Cid's post.

You don't like Cid for Cid's post, or is it just you disagreeing with what he says? I personally am moderately... I dunno the word, but it seems awfuly inattentive to the situation to try to use the 1 to 1 scum argument here.

I'm not as convinced as Alex of the case on Andrew, but I think there's a distinct possibility that wool is being pulled over our eyes. As I outlined in the last posts, I think there's a chance that he gets a kill every night/day cycle, although it could be optional or he attacked someone bulletproof or something, but obviously I have no idea. Just the very first reaction he had to the kill (the Night 2 kill) struck me as someone maybe trying to act surprised. I'm also fairly negatively colored by Cor's complaints as well as the way he hounded QR, but I have no idea what that is a factor of.

Alex: Andrew isn't a confirmed non-townie yet, unfortunately.  We've already seen SuperCop, I'm not willing to say it's impossible that we're looking at an uber Inventor here.  What's much more confirmed, by OK's detection, is that we've got scum present in either Corwin or Nitori.  Can you explain why you find that to be lower on your priority list?

Un-unfortunately? What a... peciluar thing to say.

[Nitori]

Re: Roleclaiming. I did it since I didn't see a reason to doubt OK's watcher list; I did target him with an action, now-confirmed QR targetted him with an action. I figured that with the conclusion I came to by targeting Andy, I could at least clear up one case ('sides, this makes me more like a vig or something.) Also, that builds a very strong case against Cor to me, and I'd like to hit scum one of these days. I wanted to make it perfectly clear what I was doing and what I suspected were the outcomes of my actions.

[Shale]

Alex, you're claiming that Andrew is a sure thing...because we can't be certain that he's not anti-town. How is that any different from the case for Nitori/Corwin? You're trying to paint it like you're not playing percentages, when that's all any of this is. Even if you assume that Andrew is some variety of third party who has to stay alive to win, you're still taking the risk that he's anti-town and thus a more valuable target than potential scum.

[Smodge13]

I got to admit, after all this Alex would probably be getting my vote.

However it is better to look at it that either Corwin/Nitori is scum, not sure which yet, i'm leaning more twards Nitori being scum personally, Corwin has posted more and his arguments have made more sense to me, but the doc claim is holding me back from voting for Nitori, especially a Quackdoc claim, then again it makes sense for a doc to try to remain below the radar, so my vote will go to Corwin, unless his defense satisfies me.

Andrew seems harmless for now, there is also the very slight chance he is town although i doubt it.

Scum is towns first priority, 3rd parties can come 2nd.

[Ranmilia]

I AM playing percentages, and I think Andrew's percentage of being not town is much (much, much) higher than that of either Nitori or Corwin.  Scum is not town's 'first' priority.  Killing all who are not town is town's only priority.  Andrew is most definitely not harmless, he's demonstrated a kill power, an apparent immunity to any night actions that could tell us anything more about him, and what I perceive as extremely anti-town play.  Lynch all liars, and all people who put their own self-preservation over the good of the town. 

If you honestly think the game situation and Andrew's play indicates that he is town, that's one thing (though certainly not something I agree with), but if you, like me, believe he's not town, LYNCH HIM.  Doing otherwise is absurd, unless you can demonstrate that the case on either Cor or Nitori, individually, is stronger than the case on Andrew, individually.  I'm not seeing either of those cases.  Nitori's been lurkish and I find his roleclaim highly fishy.  Cor's made some odd cases and... well, not too much else that stands out to me, I like a lot of his reasoning.  Adding "50% chance that one of the two is scum" to both of those cases does not result in a stronger case than the one on Andrew, in my opinion.

For tomorrow, if I had to pick one of the two, I'd vote for Nitori right now.  His claim does not seem believable to me, and I'm seeing a lot of people buying into blatantly untrue fallacies like "If he was scum he wouldn't claim quack doctor here."  A lot of the cases presented on Cor so far have made mention of his lurking, when I'm finding him to be reasonably high on content, just with hours that most of us don't keep.  The person who claims first in a situation like this is always going to look a bit better psychologically, and I think scum may be exploiting this perception of Cor's hours as lurking.  The resemblance to the near-unanimous vote against QR doesn't help - we know now that both QR and Tai were town, and the press went entirely towards QR, the person more helpful to town and dangerous to scum. 

[Luther Lansfeld]

Corwin. I thought he looked odd for the way he went after Andy (who, I should add, I still think likely to be a third party) over what really seemed to me to be a purely hypothetical discussion. It seemed like a fabricated case, and town should not need to exaggerate things to make a point. It's hard to say more until he gets back and responds to all this, but he's felt strange for a while.

I don't feel like Corwin has exaggerated things. Is there an instance in particular that you think he did this? Because I feel like he quoted the things that should be quoted and even provided links for people to see if he was indeed exaggerating.

[VySaika]

Ciato:

Un-unfortunately? What a... peciluar thing to say.

Not all that odd. If he were confirmed non-town we could just lynch him and be done with it. FAR preferable to have confirmation of alignment, no matter what the alignment is, then to be uncertain. At least that's the reaction I had to Otter's line, and what I think he meant. He's not saying that it's unfortunate that Andy is possibly town, he's saying it's unfortunate that we don't have him confirmed as anything.

Re: Cor/Nitori
Personally, despite what my vote may seem, I'm not sold on either person at the moment. I've just got my vote on Cor as a pressure vote for him to explain himself. Yeah, I know he's not around right now. But when he does log in, he'll see the votes on him and talk. At least he'd better. Nitori's already talking, and I'm not going to push for a lynch in either direction here until we've heard both sides of this story.

[OblivionKnight]

Ok, really wanted to come back and do some posting and thought here, but...I've been out for 6 hours and just got back at 12:30am.  I'm exhausted, and have stuff to type up.  I'll be back tomorrow to post something.

[Kilgamayan]

Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

Tonfa (1): Halbarad
Corwin (4): Yakumo, Nitori, Gatewalker, Yakumo, El Cideon
AndrewRogue (1): Otter, Ran
Alex/Ran (1): AndrewRogue
Ciato (2): Shale, OblivionKnight
Nitori (1): Otter

Love Count:

Chen (2): Yukari, Ran
Everybody (1): Taishyr
Marisa (2): Arisu, Ran
QuietRain (1): OblivionKnight

Discipline Count:

Ran (1): Yukari

With 16 people still alive, 9 votes is a majority.

About 23 hours to go. If people want to start sending me night actions, that'd be great, but with so much time left in the day and new happenings to mull over I understand if you need some time.

[Sierra]

Uh, Cid, in this situation, there is going to be a one-to-one trade regardless, so Nitori claiming doctor even if he was scum seems really reasonable. How is this a gamble at all?

You make a fair point; Nitori was already in danger on account of OK's observations, so this wouldn't be scum making a risky play as much as it would be scum making the most of a bad situation?

I still don't buy that it's possible OK and a hypothetical scum Nitori planned this, Alex. Scum making team plays like that out in the open take a terrible risk, more of one than I can find believable. If one of them burns and flips scum, town more than likely will go after his partner afterwards. However? It's probably a valid observation that Nitori looks better for claiming first, yes. I'm aware that Cor has odd hours; I haven't held this against him. He's posted quite a lot and with a good deal of analysis, and this is a mark in his favor (and quite a contrast to Nitori, as always). My vote stays where it is for pressure until Cor logs in again and gets involved in the discussion, though.

As for making Andrew a priority over either one? I don't really buy it. Like you, I highly suspect he's a third-party, but I prioritize hitting scum over hitting self-aligned, and it seems very likely that we have scum in the form of Cor or Nitori. Your hypothesizing that he might have a win condition that could kick in at any time seems simply alarmist, to me. I understand suspecting him, I just think it's more important to get scum's numbers down now that we've got a good opportunity to do so.

Ciato: you asked me stuff about Cor! And I'll go back and review the Andy/Tai/Cor stuff from day two tomorrow morning, or after work if I don't get up early enough. I think we've got plenty of time left before the deadline, but correct me if I'm wrong. I will at least get the chance to glance at the board before work tomorrow, if not necessarily post at length. I need sleep now, at any rate.

[Otter]

If OK's lying scum, it's pretty safe to say neither Cor nor Nitori is a scum.  By claiming that one of those two ought to be scum, OK would be taking way too big of a risk of losing a scumbuddy.

I don't really find myself disagreeing with Alex about Andrew, in fact I've been finding problems with Andrew's posts since the day started which all painted a picture of Andrew working for nobody but himself.  However, if Andrew's a townie with the scope of powers he's actually described, I think it's possible that he'd consider his own survival to be of utmost importance, causing the sort of self-centered behavior I've spotted in him.  Is a town-aligned uber inventor absolutely out of the question?  I don't think so, from what we've seen out of Kilga so far.  The point is, I don't think Alex's 99% certainty of Andy's non-town status is realistic.  I'm very suspicious of him too, but I don't like the way Alex has been sweeping the Cor/Nitori issue under the rug (calling it a "lower priority") and trying to railroad an Andrew lynch home instead.

In fact, I think Alex has given this his own spin without me realizing it until now.  He keeps harping on the "fact" that we only have a 50% chance of hitting scum if we go after Cor/Nitori, as if examination of their respective explanations is inherently fruitless and couldn't possibly assist us in making a decision.  What?  You've already said that you find Nitori's quack claim fishy and Cor looks good to you in comparison.  Getting Cor's response would only make the decision easier and improve our odds of choosing correctly, I think.  Dismissing it as a coin toss is insulting to town's ability to figure anything out.

One more thing.  If Nitori survives till tonight, I think we should have decided in advance on someone for him to "protect."  If he's REALLY a quack like he says he thinks he is, then he should 1) prove it and gain some credibility and 2) make himself into a weapon for town.  We wouldn't mind getting nightkills of our own, wouldn't you say?  If he's lying, of course, then this will be how we expose him.  A scum Nitori would be fine if told to sit tight and do nothing, but if we're asking for specific kills, he can't get away with that.  Either way, it's a step in the right direction, so I propose that we start thinking now about who we want nightkilled.  I suppose that, by default, simply going with whoever has the second-most votes at the end of the day would work.

[Ranmilia]

Okay folks, time to bust out the hyperbole.

"I prioritize hitting scum over hitting self-aligned"

This is not good town play!
This is not good town play!
This is not good town play!
I'll keep saying that till it sinks in!

As far as town is concerned there are only two groups that matter.  Town and not town.  Killing a third party reduces the numbers of not town.  It's that simple.  "Oh, yeah, but he's on our side, we should hunt scum."  No!  He IS scum!  Scum is a term encompassing all who are anti-town.  We're working on the assumption that there is a sizable organized group of anti-town, but there is no reason to prioritize that group when you have another anti-town sitting in your face.  There is no such thing as a town friendly third party.  Third parties do not win with the town and their goals are not the town's.  The case for Andrew BEING a third party in the first place is that he HAS ACTED IN WAYS THAT HURT TOWN.  There is no reason to believe that he will not continue to do so. 

Moreover, we are not actually down too badly.  Town in FFT almost threw the game when they got in a panic about mislynching three times, all their roles started claiming, and to be honest only chance and some luck with awesome roles put them back together.  There is no reason why Corwin/Nitori can't wait till tomorrow.  Indeed another night would give Nitori another chance to prove/disprove/generate more data on his role.  If he says he's a quack or killdoc, essentially vig once this is realized, and he thinks Cor's scum, have him try to protect/kill Cor and see what happens.  At worst, no new data.  (Actually, at worst, they're both town somehow and we lose Cor and then mislynch Nitori, but if that is somehow the case we're kind of screwed anyhow.)  This prioritizing and panic about lynching REAL SCUM RIGHT NOW OMG is uncalled for and harmful.  Think it through, think about what happened with Tai and QR, and if you're going to lynch for fear of the situation, realize that the situation will be worse yet if we lynch the wrong one.  Wish Cor had posted, his silence doesn't help his case, and he does not look "good" to me, but I'm still not sold either way on the two of them, and with the game so far I'm not inclined to take gambles any riskier and chance surprises any worse than is necessary.

Sleep now, class tomorrow, I may not be back until after the lynch.  I am quite confident that my vote will do the most good staying on Andrew and I hope 8 others will join it. 

Edit for Otter - it's a coin toss to me, right now.  Hype town's ability to figure things out in a game where we haven't faced a similar situation earlier in the day and wound up killing our supercop. 

[Ranmilia]

I had that last post typed two hours ago and the internet refused to work.  It is so cold here that the metal pin in the cable modem's... cable... has shrunken to no longer contact in the socket.  What.

[Ranmilia]

And YES that means I stayed up two hours later than I should have.  Screw winter.