Touhou Mafia - Main Topic

[Taishyr]

...so you're blaming him for not expressing his deepest doubts about the role that didn't happen and thus seem kinda irrelevant right now, since he isn't dead? This just smells like excusefishing to me.

[Shale]

My post was mainly directed at Otter (and Kilga).

[Carthrat]

Re: Tai... what?

1) He has a role PM. It says his role in it.
2) He claims! He says NOTHING about thinking he might die if he uses it.
3) I'm like 'huh? Doesn't that role... usually die?'
4) He's like "Well, I thought I would."

*Why did he think he would?* This isn't a matter of him going "Well, my role said X, but I think it was lying." Asking him why he thinks something like that does not seem like an invalid line of enquiry and I think it's pretty weird that you seem to be presenting it as such. A flat denial from him to me would not have raised my eyebrow. A response like that does. Can you explain why you don't think this is worth persuing to me?

[Shale]

First he said he didn't know what kind of bodyguard he was, and then he said that he thought he might be the kind that dies when they block a kill. That's....not a huge contradiction, as far as I can see.

[Taishyr]

1) I'd hope it would!
2) Uh, yes. ...why would he bother bringing it up if it didn't happen? It does not surprise me that he may have been worrying about it, but what's the point in bringing it up? Period? Woo, he's a oneshot bodyguard who didn't die. This... isn't too uncommon! Also we're seeing such "weird" things fairly commonly right now, being aggressive toward someone else who seems to have another such role seems immensely counterproductive. Could he be lying? Yeah, perhaps, but right now I'm inclined to trust him as the story fits a few different things. (Again, can't full explain. Let's just say I've got nothing of Hong Meiling's back home, mmkay?) Regardless, I can understand you all not trusting him, and I don't fully myself.

3) Uh, yeah. Bringing that up's fine, since the variant that dies has been more common here. (I'm used to a far different Bodyguard variant, but whatevs). My problem is that... well, okay, let me put it this way. I find it weird that you're attacking based on something he didn't say in his roleclaim that sounds like it wasn't presented in his roleclaim. Your enquiry and his response both read neutral. It's attacking based on this that I find weird - I can't see a single thing suspicious about what he said, flat-out. Does this stop him from being scum? N....o, but... you're attacking him in a press to hear what was in his role PM, it looks to me, which does not make me comfortable at all here. Sometimes you only have what's actually in your PM, you know? And it reads to me that he's effectively, in that post, telling us what he had and a guess as to what's actually going on. The offense against him for it is reading really odd to me.

Shale: It doesn't read as a contradiction to me at all. Same thing Nitori did. Guess what he died for? (Other than the greater glory of town.)

[Halbarad]

Well, it's certainly been an interesting day and no mistake. Posting from work yesterday wasn't possible as I had to assist quite a number of other people with testing, and then about two hours after I got off I settled down on the couch to read for a while and then found myself waking up at 3 am - which is why I'm now posting.

@Nitori flip: This surprises me, although given the nature of the roles in this game I suppose it shouldn't. I likely would have voted for him myself had I been awake to do so.

@Ran flip: I can't really say this surprises me. Reading I have time to do; posting takes a -lot- longer since (as previously stated) I prefer to review almost the entire topic in order to come up with solid substance to a post, especially on someone I haven't researched before. After the events surrounding QR and Tai - and his repeated calling me down for lurking when practically no one else believes I've done so - my dear shikigami was certainly looking very suspicious. She'll be quite thoroughly disciplined, have no fear of that.

Re: Gate's roleclaim: Otter, why is this worth a vote? It may have been a rather pointless and somewhat stupid roleclaim, but people DO make
mistakes. I don't see this being terribly scummy in and of itself, just ill-advised, and not worth a lynch by itself without additional evidence.

Re: the whole Cor/Nitori/OK thing: Assuming that town quack Nitori was the one who successfully NK'ed Tom past protection from Corwin (who if I am reading correctly is being cleared by Tai), this leaves a question of what happened to the -scum- NK on day 1. I will not ask for any kind of evidence about whether or not it was blocked or who by, but it does leave the question out there for consideration.

My current top suspects are smodge (who has flipflopped rapidly SEVERAL times, and clearly done no more than skim two roleclaims) and generally acted really blatantly scummy, aaaand Tonfa, still. Still has no content whatsoever, just vague promises of "more later".

Why still Tonfa? To date, I've been the only one going after him - and pretty consistently focused about doing so, and the only person targeting -me- so far is confirmed scum. Does this guarantee he's scum? No, but it certainly looks very bad, given that if Alex had managed to rustle up a successful lynch train on me there would no longer BE any pressure on Tonfa.

While I'm not going to say "look at no one else", I would strongly suggest that we focus our voting in only 2-3 directions; it's far easier for us as town to look at a small number of cases in much more detail than it is to cast suspicion on half the remaining players and dilute everyone's energy trying to track all of them throughout the course of the game. It doesn't have to be Tonfa or smodge  (although it'd be much easier for me personally to deal with if it was one of the two), but limiting discussion down to a small number of cases can only help town. If we can clear those cases so much the better, but generally there'll be a few people that are widely considered scummy (or heavily lurkerish).

Personally, at this point I'd really start hitting the lurkerish folks hard; the reason for this is that we've got a bit of slack on making a mistake still and hitting a quiet townie rather than in the late game, where we may run up against LYLO and have to choose between two lurkers on faith - better to sort those out while we still CAN afford to make a mistake. Any active scum will likely continue to be active, and leaving them talking is more likely to get them to trip up on their own words as we deal with their silent companions.

That said, I shall act to probably no one's lasting surprise at this moment and ##VOTE: Tonfa.

[Taishyr]

Mmm. Thanks for the input, Hal, and those are fairly solid observations. I was beginning to wonder about either you or Ran, myself, and while Ran's flip doesn't clear you per se I like you better now. >_>


Okay. I'd like to hear from... Tonfa! Would always like to hear more from dear Ciato, too. Corwin, whatsup? Same for Cid and Yakumo. Tonfa's the most pressing here, and I realize it's a new day so some people aren't up, sure, and others are just getting around. But I'd like to post this for my own reference. Would also like to hear from Smodge, and Excal when he catches up. Still thinking over what I've read.

[Smodge13]

Would also like to hear from Smodge

Typing it up now.

[Excal]

Don't expect me to catch up any time soon.  I'm still only around page 23, and need to take the occasional break to give myself time to digest information.

That said, from some random reading of stuff to get a grasp for that last minute vote on Day 3, and what I've seen on my read through so far, I do have some things which I find curious.

First off, has there been any evidence of a role blocker before Night 3?  Because, it seems odd that OK's been hit by it last night, and yet Tom wasn't on night one.  And, let's be honest.  The way Tom was playing, the fact that people were actively disbelieving his claim even before he'd have to go around claiming he was blocked, and the fact that he'd continue to smokescreen like Super did in FFT?  It seems like the obvious scum play even before you consider the fact that roleblockers aren't likely to get doc blocked.  And if they have a doc buster, then it suggests that it would either be ungodly high in uses, or on someone they're expecting to become a liability and therefore an acceptable bussing target once his shots are done.

As for the people who I've been noticing as having not posted much.  I don't know whether or not I'm glad to see some of them on Hal's list there.  It does suggest consistancy in not posting.   But...  I suppose I'll have more to say about that after I've covered another 30 pages.

[Smodge13]

Ok my post iwll come in the morning IE crashed and lost my typing v.v.

[Excal]

Smodge, we're going to be waiting for that post with bated breath.  Let's all join the fun, and hope it's as illuminating as the sun.

Now, that said, I need sleep, and I'm only up as far as the run up to QR's kill.  I figure I might as well sum up some of the thoughts running through my head here and now, so that people can comment on them.

Hal: No one really seemed to catch or comment on this (although Alex might have in the ten pages I only skimmed over lightly before work) at the time.  But, when the QR/Tai debate was going on, you very slyly stuck in an "if X = Town, Then Lynch Y" Argument.  This is disturbing to me, not just because that's a classic scum argument that was very well presented, but also because of a few other tells you've been dropping.  First of all, your defense of QR wasn't based so much on the proof of the moment, but more on a determined belief that she was right, and therefore Tai must be wrong.  Secondly, I can appreciate not wanting to simply chime in and say you agree with someone else.  But what about the cases where two people are arguing differing views?  Do you agree with both of them?  Are we supposed to be able to divine your position on events through minor hints in your posts?

Though...  I suppose the real problem with this...  is that it was all culled from looking at the first 35 pages, and not two or three posts above this one where you do deal with all of this.  Right...  definatly sleep time for me.  Tomorrow, getting fully caught up and finishing forming opinions on people!

[Carthrat]

I will not ask for any kind of evidence about whether or not it was blocked or who by, but it does leave the question out there for consideration.

Why not, actually? If someone was attacked on day 1 and somehow survived, I think it would be *good* if they came forward. Otherwise I have to assume that the scumkill on night 1 went towards... Tom. And thus one of OK and Cor is still likely to be responsible. The exact details of how the kill was stopped don't matter here- it's whether or not there WAS another kill in the first place.

Tai: Attack... eh. I wanted an answer. I feel a need to be forceful about getting it. I don't harbour a serious desire to fly after Gate today (there are other, more interesting things to pursue), but I don't want to just let it go here anyhow.

<->

Lurkers... hey, Excal, when you're going through everything can you try to note down people you feel are lurking? Off the top of my head, Cid and Tonfa spring to mind as people low on posts and content. Hal did until he ninja'd me accusing him of lurking again (he's got a talent for this, I think.)

[Halbarad]

Alex did call me on that, and it was based on reasoning placed out there by a lot of people - namely that the conditions under which BOTH Tai and QR could be telling the truth seemed unlikely in the extreme at the time (for all that one of them actually DID come to pass, that of QR being a supercop). Alex himself also used the same reasoning, although admittedly he didn't put the term lynch on it; in hindsight going along with it might not have been the best-advised maneuver, but as it stood at the time I really couldn't imagine that QR was a naive limited cop (and the idea of supercop never really earned any serious consideration from me). Given the way roles are turning out in this game, I certainly won't be hasty to make such an assumption again.

And no, most of my defense of QR was based around a purely practical point; between the not-quite-claim of role thief from Tai and the definitive claim of cop (if slightly restricted) from QR, it made more sense at the time to lynch Tai based solely on the fact that we would not be sacrificing our possible cop to determine who was telling the truth. I did say that my gut said "QR is town", but I also stated that I couldn't expect anyone else to believe my instincts even if I did. I'll admit that I'm relying on gut feelings a lot in this game, but to date every one of them that's been put to the test has turned up true (EvilTom not necessarily being scum, but not telling the truth; patchucloud being a panicked townie; QR telling the truth about her copness) - you can find me claiming all of these statements before the respective reveals. I'm still not going to use this to try to sway anyone else's opinion, but the fact that it's been pretty much dead-on the entire game does make ME a lot more inclined to trust it.

The final result did turn out to be the best one possible, as it completely cleared Tai, but I was hardly the only one at the time who was more or less convinced that one of the two was lying. My argument (as I stated several times) was not really based on any kind of content from EITHER of the two, just on an admitted gut feeling that QR was town and that if one of the two was lying, it would make sense to use the weaker of the two roles to determine which of the two it was.

To Carthrat: Mainly, I'm thinking of something like a bulletproof townie at this point, who becomes utterly useless to town if they reveal they're bulletproof; saying "yes I was a failed NK" for any reason would confirm the existence of more anti-scum roles (even if not exactly what they were), and I'd rather those stay in hiding unless it becomes clear that  they'll be lynched without letting us know.

I'm definitely in agreement on OK and Corwin though; assuming that Corwin is indeed a doc, it's possible that he doc'ed Tom from a NK by scum, OK watched for the scum to spot any possible docs trying to block the kill (he'd make sense as a doc target night 1 as he DID make a cop claim, however shaky), and then with Corwin's protection gone he got quacked by Nitori (assuming that Corwin's ability only blocks one kill attempt per night). It's also possible that OK saw Corwin and Nitori BOTH hit Tom, Corwin from the scum and Nitori quacking him to death. Corwin could go either way; it's possible that Gate bodyguarded Tai from a NK by Corwin, and also possible that Corwin protected Tai from a NK attempt by Gate.

I'm not totally clearing Corwin based on Tai's deduction myself; while I do trust Tai to be a townie, I know it's quite possible for townies to make mistakes, too (like I said, I'd have voted Nitori). So Corwin is not clear on my list yet.

This is part of why I want to target lurkers for now. It's very likely that some of the folks involved in this so far are scum, and since most of them have been fairly active, giving them more rope to hang themselves with strikes me as a good idea. The longer they have to keep up their pretense of townieness, the more likely they are to drop some key tell that lets us nail them (as Alex started doing in the middle of the QR/Tai debate). Meanwhile, we can start eliminating some of the lurker  population while we've still got a safety margin in which to do so.

Speaking of lurkers, do you have anything to add, Ciato? Like many others, I keep forgetting you're even in the game, which is not a good thing.

[Corwin]

Had no time over the lunch break at all, and unlikely to have much till I get home. I tried to catch up as thoroughly as I could, but if you feel I've missed something (especially something directed at me), please repeat it and I'll do my best.

First of all, I'm alive. Certainly not what I expected to see happen, but there it is.

Nitori flipping town puzzled me. I was so certain... I mean, if there were just the two of us and QR.... Okay. It also got me running in circles. I still kinda believed OK. He was obviously a watcher, and I didn't get a scummy vibe from him. So barring him lying (and just how many people could target Tom day one?!) it seemed that one of us three killed Tom. Supercop? Yeah, no. But a doctor evidently did, even if it's some mad scientist. I really wanted to use my chance to protect one of our two confirmed townies, Tai (absolutely cleared) or OK (pretty much cleared, at least to me), but in the very unlikely scenario that I would actually kill one of them while trying to save them....

So I decided to target myself. If it had been just me suspecting that my powers didn't work as well as I stated with such certainty the previous day, I could have tried it on a lurker, of course. But there was also the possibility that I was overthinking it, that Nitori passed through my protection and... that scum would target me as well, since they would know who's town and who's not. Especially if they don't actually have docbust (for that, we need to believe OK, I admit, but I do; the whole puppetmaster routine just doesn't work for me, and it fits so well with what we've had so far with the supercop/miller thing).

I, erm, succeeded. By this, I mean that I didn't receive a notification of failure on use of my ability like before. Also, Impossible Request #3 was wasted, since scum didn't bite. Not sure what to think of that; could they ALSO have something to get past me, like Nitori evidently did?

I sort-of caught up to the thread by now, which means I've read it but can't really comment in depth yet. I'll try from home. Minor sense of irony for Otter calling Gate out on a somewhat puzzling naming issue only to commit the same mistake with regard to Excal/Andrew. That just jumped at me, maybe because it's on the more recent pages.

And Alex was scum. If nothing else, it should remind us that each of us can only trust him or herself with 100% certainty, and after that, the person who was confirmed by a flipped Supercop. Groupthink=bad.

[Otter]

Minor sense of irony for Otter calling Gate out on a somewhat puzzling naming issue only to commit the same mistake with regard to Excal/Andrew.

What?  I called out Gate for a wishy-washy and completely unnecessary roleclaim, which can only help scum.  How is that "the same mistake" as forgetting that Excal had replaced Andy as a player?

---

Now to the rest of Cor's post, since he's still a prime suspect on my list.

First of all, I'm alive. Certainly not what I expected to see happen, but there it is.

So I decided to target myself.

You weren't expecting to survive, after you used your doc power on yourself?  Reeeeally.  Looks to me like your story's inconsistent.

Now to the heart of the matter.  On night 1, only Tom died!  If, as you're saying, Tom's death was simply the result of being quacked by Nitori, what happened to the scum NK?  Mystery!  Don't tell me they purposefully held out to confuse us, either, because they had no way of knowing that quacks were in play.  Scum wanted to get a kill that night, and so either they aimed at Tom (through the only possible assassin if we take OK's list as truth: yourself) or they aimed at someone else and were blocked, and after all these days and roleclaims we're still not getting ANY evidence on the "they were blocked" theory.  Even if Nitori quacked Tom that night, that says nothing about what you were doing to him simultaneously.

One other thing.  You're claiming that you *know* scum "didn't bite" and aim at you last night?  I'm curious about a couple things.  One is how you know that they didn't target you; did you get some notification of "Sorry, your doc power was wasted" or what?  Two is this: if you're so sure that your doc power didn't prevent scum NK last night, what did?  There's the "Gate saved the day with his elite non-dying bodyguard on Tai!" theory, but I don't buy that yet because Gate's claim was so fishy, and for one other reason: scum had little reason to choose the obvious doc bait to target last night.  They want dead townies, bad, and going into last night we had at least one claimed doctor and possibly others with doc powers unclaimed; why the heck would they opt to gun for Tai when he's the only one our docs can be sure of protecting?  It doesn't add up.

So, okay, I need to get to class now.  I still say Gate's claim is flimsy and stupid and we shouldn't hand-wave it with "Everyone makes mistakes!" the way Hal's suggesting, but I agree that votes should indicate the person we want to lynch the most at any given time.  Right now, that person for me is Corwin, because he's the only one the scum could have sent to kill Tom on night 1 according to OK (QR and Nitori both flipped town), and if scum didn't send someone to kill Tom, then they sent someone to kill someone else and nobody's said a peep about blocking some other attack on night 1.  So there you go.  ##UNVOTE: Gatewalker.  ##VOTE: Corwin.

[Taishyr]

Yeah, no. But a doctor evidently did, even if it's some mad scientist. I really wanted to use my chance to protect one of our two confirmed townies, Tai (absolutely cleared) or OK (pretty much cleared, at least to me), but in the very unlikely scenario that I would actually kill one of them while trying to save them....

So I decided to target myself. If it had been just me suspecting that my powers didn't work as well as I stated with such certainty the previous day, I could have tried it on a lurker, of course. But there was also the possibility that I was overthinking it, that Nitori passed through my protection and... that scum would target me as well, since they would know who's town and who's not.

Ah, wise, brilliant Kaguya! Your wisdom in protecting yourself is as a star that quenches my thirst in the lonely oasis! Your spirit is that which buoys Gensokyo up when all seems lost!

Your lying tongue makes a perfect match for your lying eyes!

You see, I figured it was either you or I, Kaguya dearest, who would die to the scum last night. I chose you for my shot of Watcher, and hoped I would be safe. Indeed I was - I believe I have Gatewalker to thank for that miracle.

Meanwhile, you, dear? Unless your actions on yourself are invisible, you -didn't act at all-. Profoundly nothing! I was the only one to look at you and you did -nothing- to anyone else. Yes, I watched you. Saw jack. ...and survived the night anyway.

I wanted to hear you speak, to see if you would claim roleblock or stress from Kaguya leaving or something that wouldn't assuage my suspicions but would lighten them a bit. But to claim you acted?

Calling a no on that one. In fact... Copy Spark: Stylized Clone!

"I dwell amidst the abounding light of love! Thou art at the gates to the underworld! Come forth, thunder of the gods! It ends he-yah! HA-DO-KEN SPARK: KAGUYA HOURAISAN!"

... Yeah okay no I wish I had a dayvig shot but sadly, can't say I do. would've been so cool, too.

##Vote: Corwin

Explanation requested. To say you acted when I saw nothing happen...? Yeah. Not inclined to believe it.

[Shale]

Uh, Otter? Tai outright stated that there was an attack on his life and it was blocked, so somebody went after the obvious doc-bait. Figuring out why is one thing, but ranting about how it's a terrible strategy doesn't carry much weight when it already happened.

Also, this.

You weren't expecting to survive, after you used your doc power on yourself?  Reeeeally.  Looks to me like your story's inconsistent.

You're talking to a person who, by his claim, has doc'd twice - once on a person who turned up dead, and once on a person whose own evasion had to kick in to dodge a kill. If Corwin really is a doc, not trusting his power against the scum kill is a very rational thing to do.

[Shale]

....okay, that's a different story.

##Vote Corwin

[Carthrat]

Yep, that's what I was waiting for. I had no idea if Tai had targeted himself or Corwin or OK or anything with his watcher shot, and I don't.. really need more proof than what he's said. This is gonna clear OK as well, and while I was prepared to talk to Hal about the virtues of someone else who got targeted on day 1 revealing themselves, it seems most likely that this is just a moot point.

##Vote: Corwin

[Taishyr]

Also, Shale, remember: Corwin said his ability seemed to hit Andrew/Excal's non-NK night immunity. If this is the case, why was he worried about it maybe being a viggish thing, again? Seems off, to me.

[Taishyr]

Yeah, I wanted people to get talking. Especially Corwin - if he claimed something happened to him, I might have believed it, but I'm... not inclined to right now? I'm possibly flat-out wrong and quack went through doctor Impossible Request, but the fact that I saw no action greatly worries me and makes me doubt the claim, period.

[Shale]

Also, Shale, remember: Corwin said his ability seemed to hit Andrew/Excal's non-NK night immunity. If this is the case, why was he worried about it maybe being a viggish thing, again? Seems off, to me.

*rereads*

Huh, you're right. That line sailed by me completely when I read that post the first time. Standard disclaimer about nothing apparently being what it seems in this game, but even so, that doesn't fit, you're right.

[Halbarad]

Was hoping you'd do some clarification on that, Tai, but with your earlier indication that you needed to hold onto it, I didn't press in my post.

##UNVOTE: Tonfa
##VOTE: Corwin

Rat: The whole thing was partly a misread of Tai's post; I'd thought he was clearing Corwin, originally, and so the thought of a second blocked NK came to mind - since if Tom was only quacked to death past Corwin, it leaves the question of who the scum DID target.

Which was apparently Tom anyway.

[Nitori]

Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

Gatewalker (0): Otter
Tonfa (0): Halbarad
Corwin (5): Otter, Taishyr, Shale, Carthrat, Halbarad

Love Count:

Nitori (14): Everyone

...what?

With 14 alive, 8 is needed to lynch~

Day ends in about 37 hours~

[Taishyr]

I... yeah, was trying to make it sound as if I didn't suspect him, yes. >_>; I wanted to see what he'd say with little to no suspicion on him for best comparison to my results. Well, I think this satisfies me, but not in the way he intended.