I should look at posting times more closely, I guess; it's been more than half an hour since Cid's last post, so here goes.
WARNING: MASSIVE POST OF MASSIVENESS AHEAD
Well, this turned into a much more major post than I'd originally planned - I'd originally intended to go over scum+Tonfa voting records, but looking over these in conjunction with the issue du jour - El Cid vs. Yakko - turned it into more of a complete analysis. I don't have -everyone- I find fishy on here, but I do cover the two known scum, as well as Tonfa, Yakumo, and El Cid (the first for reasons that should be apparent due to my play over the course of the game; the latter two due to the fact that they're the issue du jour and the resolution of this case will likely result in the day's lynch.)
FOR OTHER PEOPLE'S REFERENCE: I have tried to make the voting records as factual as possible; summary statements will necessarily be colored somewhat with my own prejudices, since I'm paraphrasing events. If you're uncertain about anything I've placed here, please do review the day in question for yourself, and correct me if necessary. I don't claim this to be biblical truth here, just the best analysis I can make for five voters since the game's start.
DAY 1: Bit of a mess because it is of course day 1, but here's the record:
BY SCUM:
Ran: Rode the Tom train, switched over to Strago.
Corwin: Stayed on the Tom train.
Tonfa: Started on Smodge for early stupidity, moved to Tom and stayed there.
FOR SCUM:
Ran: No votes.
Corwin: Myself and Rat, both joke votes based on character/avatar choice (I should have KNOWN that using Tohonifun's Kaguya meant she was a total psychopath).
Tonfa: OK and Ciato, no real research on why.
CID/YAKKO:
Yakumo:
By: Voted for the Tom train, also had votes on Shale and Otter (both pressure, IIRC; I'm not rereading all of day 1 as it's not spectactularly helpful).
For: Received a vote from Gate, IIRC this was a joke vote.
El Cid:
Voted on OK, jumped on Strago, back off, and then back on again.
Received a vote from Chisa (likely a pressure vote? Again, it's day 1)
DAY 2: Things actually mean things now! More information about why votes switched as I scan.
BY SCUM:
Ran: Started the Patchu train, stayed there all day. Starts to breadcrumb lurkiness on me, although this is actually after the Tonfanalysis.
Corwin: Laid pressure on Tonfa to provide content early, then backed off when he "did" (mostly in the form of catching the votecount discrepancy from day 1; I actually covered the post in question's lack of content on actual game PLAY rather than PROCEDURE in the Tonfanalysis). Switches to a pressure vote on Tai for lurking, then moves on to Andrew (now Excal) for mistakes made on the claimfishing defense. Remained there until the end of the day.
Tonfa: Lays a pressure vote on Shale, then OMGUS'es me for the Tonfanalysis since I don't reply to him the same day. Vote remains there until end of day.
FOR SCUM:
Ran: Again avoided suspicion.
Corwin: Tai voted him on a misstep in arguing Andy's claimfishing; only retracts it when it seems they keep missing each other's points and moves to the Beansprout train to get the lynch used. Yakumo switches from OK to him after picking up on flaws in his claimfishing arguments.
Tonfa: Corwin early on asking for more content; myself later on in the day when I found him notably lacking in content even after Corwin's quickly-retracted pressure vote.
CID/YAKKO:
Yakumo:
By: Pressure vote on OK early in the day; then backed off and went after Corwin after Corwin started attacking Andy.
For: No votes.
El Cid:
By: Pressure voted me early in the day; backed off when I posted Tonfanalysis.
For: No votes.
DAY 3 (part 1):
BY SCUM:
Ran: Early on suggests Tai without voting; also calls me on lurking again (after I'd been rather active in discussing and clarifying a few things early in the QR/Tai debate). Flips fast at Tai's pseudo-roleclaim and comes down on the side of QR; then goes for Andy vigging himself which really raises a lot of alarm bells with people.
Corwin: Comes out with a lot of analysis early (see points on Tonfa below for part of it) then finally drops a full vote on QR even after Gate had requested no further real votes to prevent the day from ending early.
Tonfa: Did not weigh in at all.
FOR SCUM:
Ran: Started to raise suspicion when he continued to go after me for lurking and tried to dilute the discussion on QR/Tai, then voted for Andy to vig himself. Received a vote prior to vigging from Andy for this last.
Corwin: Yakumo popped up early in the day to drop a vote on him, citing that his previous arguments were never addressed. Vote was pulled in favor of the QR lynch due to that whole mess; I won't rehash it here.
Tonfa: Take a wild guess. I voted him by giving my point-by-point on his counterargument for the Tonfanalysis. I did not retract the vote at day end, although I did use the "Andy" syntax to call for Tai to be vigged.
CID/YAKKO:
Yakumo:
By: Jumped on Corwin immediately at day start; shifted to QR early on in that debacle.
For: None.
El Cid:
By: Comes out on QR with a fairly lengthy post, but most of it does cover points already covered in topic. This isn't necessarily wrong, but it's a point to consider.
For: None.
DAY 3 (part 2): OK is Watching You!
BY SCUM:
Ran: Retains day 3.1 vote for Excal and never removes it, arguing through most of the day for the entire Nitori/Corwin thing to be ignored in favor of lynching Andy/Excal as third party.
Corwin: Votes for Nitori as "lying scum".
Tonfa: Lays a vote on Nitori with his only post; promises "more analysis later" but never provides it.
FOR SCUM:
Ran: Starts with residue vote from day 3 pt. 1 from Andy/Excal; Excal removes later to help finish off Nitori (this is admittedly Excal's first post). NKed by someone after the end of the day.
Corwin: Nitori - after OK's watcher reveal, pegs Corwin as the scumkiller on Tom. Gate jumps in with a pressure vote for him to explain his actions regarding Tom on night 1, then backs off. Yakumo jumps back on with his first day 3.2 post. El Cideon requests further explanation from Corwin. With 1 to hammer, Smodge switches from Nitori to Corwin, then immediately switches back on no other input but his own.
Tonfa: My day 3 pt. 1 vote stood through the remainder of day 3; received no other votes.
CID/YAKKO:
Yakumo:
By: Jumps quickly on Corwin at the beginning of the day with little reasoning, continues to harry Corwin through the day.
For: Receives no votes.
El Cid:
By: Pressure votes Corwin, then unvotes with an admission that he's not actually read anything but doesn't want to keep "needless condemnation" going without analysis. Day concludes without him weighing in again.
For: Receives no votes.
DAY 4: Everyone ride the Corwin train!
BY SCUM:
Corwin: Doesn't bother to vote anyone.
Tonfa: Hammers Corwin.
FOR SCUM:
Corwin: -Everyone- that participated in the day at all.
Tonfa: Duh, I voted for him prior to the springing of Tai's trap for Corwin (who is surprised at this point?); vote was removed when Tai's trap was sprung and moved to Corwin.
CID/YAKKO:
Neither Cid nor
POINTS ON TONFA CASE:
Corwin's first analysis post of day 3 (part 1) compliments me for coming out with analysis without being provoked, but asks that I look at people other than Tonfa. (I haven't done so other up until now because settling one case strikes me as the most important thing; I've researched my most likely scum case, still haven't been solidly rebutted on it, and will continue to stick with it until it's resolved. This isn't to say that I won't do things like this to help clear up the issue du jour, but I'm not going to abandon a researched attack until it's either been clearly defused or resolved with a flip. The fact that it's acknowledged scum saying this tends to add weight to my negative analysis on Tonfa, especially given that the OTHER known scum came out with a very flimsy lurker case on me when I'd been relatively high-content/low-count on posting and was quite clear that I wasn't going to be swerved off of Tonfa without good reason.
His only day 3 post of any kind drops a vote on the now-confirmed-townie Nitori with no real analysis whatsoever, promising more later but never actually coming up with any.
Day 4 he posts twice, once announcing intent to hammer Corwin (why bother?) and then again to drop the actual hammer. Doesn't say anything beyond Corwin's case failing to convince anyone.
(I'm mainly adding this section since this post is turning into a full-thread analysis on everything, not just Yakko/Cid, and I don't want to have to go through everything AGAIN to find these points. Given that Tonfa seems to be getting sidelined for today, I'll probably refer everyone back here tomorrow if necessary).
POINTS ON YAKKO/CID:
I find it slightly odd that Yakko, given his day 2 return of scum on Corwin, decides to go after OK for lurking first; he does stick to Corwin after that (aside from the QR swerve on day 3.1)
However, El Cid does look worse at this point; he's very low on content (although not as obvious about it as Tonfa is; he's better at faking volume and analysis).
Aside from the early vote on OK, Yakko was pretty doggedly on Corwin - even without a lot of reasoning - from day 2 onward; while he does drop a vote on OK first, I'm inclined to believe that this is a pressure vote to keep him looking "active" until Corwin dropped something that he could sink his teeth into. Given that Tai WAS blocked from a nightkill last night, when every expectation of mine would be that he'd die immediately (you've been lucky, Miss Unlucky Black-White, since you're confirmed town), I'm inclined to believe his roleclaim.
The main reason I'm irked is that this is derailing the attention on Tonfa, but as I've said before we can only lynch one scum per day - so for today, it might as well be the one with the more clear-cut case.
##UNVOTE: Tonfa
##VOTE: El Cideon
Side notes on today's posts: I'm also looking at Sakuya sideways at the moment; however, I'll take scumhunting first, and I don't believe that Excal is aligned with the scum. Therefore it can wait for now.