Author Topic: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic  (Read 126114 times)

Kilgamayan

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #950 on: January 27, 2008, 05:34:05 AM »
A couple of minutes passed by with no return of Yukari. The remaining group of people were starting to get fidgety, and there was a general sigh of relief when a portal finally opened up, but it was quickly stifled when, rather than anyone stepping out of it, Yukari's notably weak voice wafted through it.

"Reimu...I think I need...your help..."

"What? Why? What's wrong?"

"Ran is...oh dear...and Remilia just...showed up...out of nowhere...joined in...what's going on over there?"

"Remi WHAT?" Reimu immediately ran for the portal. "All right, I'm on my way."

"I'm going with you."

Reimu was able to stop herself in time to turn around and stare at Flandre. "No, it's too dangerous. I'll take care of this."

"I'M GOING WITH YOU."

Reimu was about to object again when she noticed a familiar murderous gleam in Flandre's eye; a small smile had also started to creep across her face.

"BIG SIS HAS BEEN MEAN TO ME. BIG SIS NEEDS TO BE PUNISHED. I'M GOING AND YOU WON'T STOP ME. NO ONE WILL STOP ME!" Flandre bolted for the portal and vanished through it, leaving Reimu dumbfounded for a moment before the gravity of the situation hit her. With a face paler than what it was twenty seconds prior, Reimu hurried through the portal in pursuit as fast as she could.

---

It is now Day 6, and:

- Yakumo, playing Flandre Scarlet (Serial Killer, THIRD PARTY) was killed overnight!
- Otter, playing Reimu Hakurei (Vanilla Townie, TOWN-ALIGNED) was killed overnight!
- Halbarad, playing Yukari Yakumo (Vanilla Townie, TOWN-ALIGNED) was killed overnight!

With 7 left alive, it takes 4 to lynch. You have until 12:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday (48 hours from now) to cast a vote.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Town is in a pseudo-LYLO situation! If you mislynch today, Day 7 could dawn with a situation impossible for town to win, though it depends on Night 6's events. Make sure you choose your votes carefully! For quick reference, here is a list of all remaining players:

3. Carthrat - Fujiwara no Mokou
5. AndrewRogue/Excal - Sakuya Izayoi
6. Taishyr - Marisa Kirisame
7. Tonfa - Yuyuko Saigyouji
8. Gatewalker - Hong Meiling
10. Shale - Yuka Kazami
19. Smodge13 - Komachi Onozuka

One last reminder: Again, please do not base analysis on the events in the story.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2008, 04:15:52 PM by Kilgamayan »


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Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #951 on: January 27, 2008, 05:42:11 AM »
Okay, that's just weird. I didn't rule out Yakko being scum, but...serial killer claiming cop? And we had three kills again? This game continues to make my brain explode.

And now we're in "Pseudo-LYLO," which means in addition to the scum there's still another third party out there. Like it wasn't dicey to start with.
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Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #952 on: January 27, 2008, 05:44:50 AM »
Also, I should note that while I'm online now (and damned lucky that the day happened to start while I have a computer, I can't guarantee anything about tomorrow. I've got access to two laptops right now, one of which can log into the forums and one of which can't. The one that can is getting left with my sister in Connecticut tomorrow, and I won't be back at my apartment until Monday.
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Taishyr

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #953 on: January 27, 2008, 05:47:29 AM »
...okay. So. SK, Vengeful Ran, and scumkills?

Blood and ashes, this is no good. Lemme reread, this is a nasty situation.

Tonfa

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #954 on: January 27, 2008, 05:55:09 AM »
I don't know anything anymore. May or may not be Vengeful Ran, but it'd be stupidly powerful if it was. SK was most likely used with Yak's flip, then there's scumkill....another scumkill/SK? Bleh.

Excal is my top suspect with his super special awesome set of powers. And remember, even if the new management -looks- better, it doesn't change a thing about the role.
<Niu> If I ever see that Langfadood, i'll strangle him on sight
<Gourry> What, for making the game three times better?
<Gourry> And playable, at that?
<Niu> that lose the whole point of of L2!!!

Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #955 on: January 27, 2008, 06:20:17 AM »
Okay, so...No matter how badly the lynch goes, town can still win depending on night actions?
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Kilgamayan

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #956 on: January 27, 2008, 06:21:40 AM »
Okay, so...No matter how badly the lynch goes, town can still win depending on night actions?

Yes.


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Taishyr

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #957 on: January 27, 2008, 06:25:42 AM »
3. Carthrat - Fujiwara no Mokou - If you're scum, congratulations, I'm going to nail you to something someday. Otherwise, I think he's town, though if there is evidence I'm missing...
5. AndrewRogue/Excal - Sakuya Izayoi - Possible remaining self-aligned. Not convinced he's scum, but quite possibly could be. Will need to think on it.
6. Taishyr - Marisa Kirisame - Yo.
7. Tonfa - Yuyuko Saigyouji - Claimed bomb, I myself am not sure on him and will need to reread.
8. Gatewalker - Hong Meiling - Claimed one-shot bodyguard. Again, not confident in this claim, though a bit more than I am Tonfa's.
10. Shale - Yuka Kazami - No goddamn read. Period. This is frightening, and something I seriously need to look over.
19. Smodge13 - Komachi Onozuka - Either Naive or scum. I'm more than willing to bet the latter, but I'm looking over the case; regardless, he's highest on my list right now.

VySaika

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #958 on: January 27, 2008, 06:28:05 AM »
...so, three kills? And Yakko was not a cop/doc that swaps days, he was a frikkin SK? What the hell? That's two lying cop claims in one game? Oi. Well, at least this second one was from a third party so it makes sense that he'd by lying.

...well, make that at least two lying cop claims. *eyes Smodge* You were wrong about El Cid, and while this could make you just naive, this could still well have been some kind of ploy from you to try and keep him from hanging. I haven't liked your play all game, and a naive cop claim isn't changing that.

Also have Otter and Hal's deaths to look at here. Hal dying points an obvious finger at Tonfa, though it's SO obvious that it could very easily be a scum trick to make Tonfa look worse. Getting into WIFOM territory there, I suppose. Otter's death....hmm. Not really sure what to make of that beyond Otter always being someone that the folks on the other team want dead.

Now looking at the list...

Carthrat-Hasn't looked bad all game. Feels generally townish.

Sakuya-Suppose he could well be third party, especially with 3 kills last night. Suspicions of that aren't that high after Yakko's SK flip though. We could well have more then 1 third party, I suppose. Eh, just really really unsure about him all around.

Taishyr-Supercop confirmed, beyond suspicion.

Tonfa-Hasn't looked too great, but certainly looks better then Smodge does.

Gatewalker-Only person besides Tai who's alignment I'm sure on. <_<;

Shale-See Rat, really. Haven't felt any reason at all so far to look at him funny.

Smodge13-Has felt like he's barely playing all game, posts full of nil content and me-tooisms, now has fingered El Cid as town when he was really scum and IIRC he fingered Yakko as town as well, and Yakko flips SK? Either a naive cop or a scum who made a bad play.

Smodge and Excal are looking like the most likely non-townies to me at this point.

Anyway, wifey one needs the comp, so I'm gonna stew on this for tonight and get back here in the morning.
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Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #959 on: January 27, 2008, 06:40:38 AM »
Okay. The reason I asked that is because, if there's a bomb hanging around, that should have a potential impact on the outcome just like a night kill, right? I...think? My best guess at the situation right now is two scum left and one third party. But...yeah, thinking about it, the worst-case scenario there (townie hammers Tonfa, leaving two townies, a third-party and two scum) would still come down to night kills, assuming the remaining self-aligned player has one; scum and third-party could kill each other, leaving a 2-1 town advantage for LYLO. So...blah, not even sure what good it'll do to post this, other than explain my motivation for asking the question
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Tonfa

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #960 on: January 27, 2008, 06:52:34 AM »
Taishyr-Supercop confirmed, beyond suspicion.

Just wanting to note here that in-game alignment changes HAVE happened before so nothing is perfectly confirmed (hello there Delita). I'm not suggesting anything of the sort though and it's much better for sanity to just assume Tai is town and then inflict maximum suffering on Kilga postgame. >_>

ninja'd

Shale: Two scum would be quite a lot considering we have nailed three already. 5 scum in a game of 21 with ~2 selfaligneds running around seems a bit excessive. A 5-1-1 situation could just as well become an unwinnable 1-1-1 in the nightmare scenario(I'm hammered, randoselect picks a townie from the lynchwagon, scum and 3rd party each kill themselves a townie), though. Actually, 2-1-1 would be unwinnable for town barring a townie getting lynched and scum/3rd party killing each other (townie getting lynched saving town? These endgame hypothetical situations are getting way too trippy). Mmph. 2 scum is a possibility, I suppose, but I'd sooner guess there's one. Need to analyze the situation with both options in mind, though. (I refuse to even think of the possibility of 3 or more scum remaining, that would deserve so much Kilga suffering.)
<Niu> If I ever see that Langfadood, i'll strangle him on sight
<Gourry> What, for making the game three times better?
<Gourry> And playable, at that?
<Niu> that lose the whole point of of L2!!!

Tonfa

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #961 on: January 27, 2008, 06:54:45 AM »
Actually 1-1-1 and 2-1-1 are winnable through No Lynch too. Endgame hurts my head.
<Niu> If I ever see that Langfadood, i'll strangle him on sight
<Gourry> What, for making the game three times better?
<Gourry> And playable, at that?
<Niu> that lose the whole point of of L2!!!

Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #962 on: January 27, 2008, 07:26:41 AM »
Oh, Kilga suffering is imperative just from how the game has played out to this point anyway. I generally assume that 25% of the players are scum, plus the fact that we've hit pseudo-LYLO with seven left. But yeah, endgame can go all kinds of crazy ways.

...speaking of crazy. You're a bomb that hits a random person who votes to lynch you, not the hammer? Okay, you're either lying or Kilga needs death even more.

Okay, now on to somebody I suspect on more than technical grounds, namely Smodge.

He's made a number of mistakes resulting from sheer laziness in reading the topic. Misreading of roleclaims, a Day 1 comment that there were no lurkers to call out when there were, and bad logic in general. He's made a cop claim that's manifestly useless to town, since if he is a cop he's Naive (or Cid was godfather and didn't flip Godfather, in which case Kilga death++). He dropped out of Day 1 when fecal matter hit fan, and never cast a final vote there. Day 2 he voted for Nitori, again staying away from the hot topic of the day except for a mild "I think she's bad town, but who knows I could be wrong" defense of Mia. I hesitate to use the Nitori thing against him, since scum could hardly know tghat OK was going to spring his bombshell on Day 3, though. Anyway, Day 3 he votes for both mislynches; QR was a group fuckup, but his Nitori vote is...odd.

First he votes Nitori, saying that it's easier to believe that there's a town doc and a scum docbuster than yet another wacky town role. And tacks on this at the end:
Quote
the other theory that we have a Quack doc (which is probably more powerful than even a normal doc) seems too overpowered for the towns benefit.

That...uh, yeah, doesn't make sense to me, and especially given the weirdass modding we'd already seen, feels like reaching.

Then he switches over to Corwin and back to Nitori again, with a series of hypotheticals that also don't work, and he acknowledges as much:

Quote
lol this is what happens when i don't think things through properly.
Basically neither of those theories about night 2 work now except there HAS to have been 2 kills if Andrew was being truthful.
So because i can't analyze night 2 to work out who is sucm, i'm reverting back to Post content from Ntori/Corwin, and when it comes to the content Nitori looks scummier.

I can't fault the logic of Nitori looking scummier from post content - I hammered him, for Pete's sake - but the justifications for vote-switching look really dicey to me. Then we've got Day 4, where he didn't contribute at all - claimed to have lost a long post to browser crash and didn't say anything else for the rest of the day (~11 more hours), and Day, with the cop claim.
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Shale

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #963 on: January 27, 2008, 07:28:30 AM »
*Day 5, with the cop claim, obviously.

And now I'm going to bed. Hopefully I'll be able to say more tomorrow. Erring on the side of caution by not throwing out a vote in a tight situation without hearing other people's thoughts.
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Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #964 on: January 27, 2008, 08:10:35 AM »
Reply to Tonfa first.

Quote
3. Okay. NOW I AM GETTING TOLD SCUM AT FOR TAKING DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES INTO ACCOUNT IN THIS GAME? WHAT THE HELL. Ahem. I'm tempted to get more venomous but that would do no good to anybody.
Thing is, this tends to lead quickly to WIFOM land. Heaps and heaps and heaps of combinations of roles are possible, and I just don't think what you had here was probable speculation at the time. It's not much, no, but...

Quote
And this is the reason why I would have done a spit-take had I been drinking something when checking this morning. By scum. Isn't that an awfully convenient light to present me in. I know you like your case but WHAT THE HELL. Are you seriously that hell bent on seeing me dead? (Actually...Lyncher? Is that you, Yukari-sama?) Definitely taking another closer look at Hal, this kind of determination goes beyond healthy.

This is getting OMGUS-like. I appreciate Hal should've cleared up some stuff, like what questions he'd asked- and his response post had some stupid flaws in it as well (pointing out that there's prejudice against the person he's trying to get lynched, I mean... *duh*?)

But he flipped town, and I don't think you can deny that despite the overblowness of some of his arguments, you likewise can't deny that you haven't looked terribly good all game. Yeah you've been busy with stuff and that's made you lurk and other people figure things out faster than you because of that... these kinds of arguments aren't persuasive. The rantish nature of your post is not really cool either. Like he's said- you've looked bad all game, and the other peripheral stuff, like 'scummy defences' and the what I've picked up on are just more and more minor tells that don't help you.

Roulette bomb seems more insane every time I think of it. Usually, if you think a bomb is scum, you can nonetheless take a precaution and force some other person you think looks bad to hammer, thus either double-lynching and getting 1 scum and one town, getting two town (but at least under controlled conditions), lynching scum, or having the one guy refuse to vote and thus making the bomb look better while you lynch the other guy instead. We.. can't really do that with you.

<->

Smodge. His roleclaim is almost meaningless at this point. Don't really know how much I buy it as an attempt to clear Cid given the circumstances (It establishes weirdness is going on with cops, but that means we're going to want to find out what's going on- and the quickest way to do that was to lynch Cid in the end.) Naive seems the obvious solution if he is in fact town.

I believe he does have a track record of saying 'my gut says xyz is town' about his subjects beyond just yesterday. A minor mark in his favour despite the ease with which this can be done. His posting in general is totally riddled with flawed arguments and forgetfulness. Lesse... here's one thing that catches my eye on day 2.

Quote from: Smodge
i want thoughts on myself, i have had a much lower post count yet no one has seriously considered me for anything.

The post he made preceding this one contained...

Quote from: Smodge
Ok
Rat wants my thoughts on Strago endtrain.

Here's another thing.

Quote from: Smodge
The attack on Andrew seems almost rediculously weak and i can see it as a possible scum tactic after observing Alex's accusation on myself as the same in Random mafia.

This was on day 2 as well. I can't remember what the status of Random Mafia was at this point in the game, but I do know that Alex was *town* in that game; he may or may not have thought Alex was scum at that point but it's really immaterial; he could't be sure. He *couldn't* draw the conclusion that because Alex was acting that way in one game, the action here was likewise scummy. I think it's possible he may have gotten confused (as, of course, were he scum he'd certainly know Alex was scum in THIS game.)

Throughout the entire game he's also been enamoured with roles in general (marvelling at the power of town, listing what roles we know exist... I don't know if it's an attempt at fishing or not, but I do know that without justification, role speculation is *dangerous* because of how tells and such can be dropped in responses to it- at the least.)

<->

I am curious about Smodge's thoughts on Tonfa and vice versa at the moment. They're my top candidates for lynching. I... really don't know what to make of the number of kills flying around at this point. There are just too many possibilities.
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Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #965 on: January 27, 2008, 09:23:08 AM »
Well this IS interesting......
Last nights investigation Target was Excal, he turned up scum.

So lets see my investigations so far in order.
Night 1 Carthrat = Town
Night 2 Gate = Town
Night 3 Yakumo = Town (Has been Confirmed 3rd party)
Night 4 El Cideon = Town (Confirmed Scum)
Night 5 Excal = Scum

Excal you hinted that i should investigate you last night and so i did, is this what you were after?.

Tonfa

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #966 on: January 27, 2008, 09:41:54 AM »
What. What. What.

The only possibility I'm seeing here is that smodge is just flat out lying. Does any cop sanity work that way? There's a stretch that it could be Insane but that would require Insanes seeing 3rd party as Town?

I'm...taking a break, though smodge looks rather epically bad right now.

Oh, almost forgot not-quite-edit: Aaaaand Andycal claimed to have immunity to non-kill night actions earlier. Yeah. Smodge is looking really bad.
<Niu> If I ever see that Langfadood, i'll strangle him on sight
<Gourry> What, for making the game three times better?
<Gourry> And playable, at that?
<Niu> that lose the whole point of of L2!!!

Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #967 on: January 27, 2008, 09:45:31 AM »
Smodge, I no longer have any clue what to make of your results. I'm seriously tempted to just call them all bullshit and vote for you, but Excal presumably has something to say here.

Excal, you hinted that something like this may have happened tonight yesterday, and today is the time to reveal what's going on. I distinctly recall you saying that you were immune to all night actions, but you've talked about a mysterious drawback forever. Some explanation is demanded- if we have to play twenty questions or if you have to jump through hoops to get the point across, so be it.
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Excal

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #968 on: January 27, 2008, 09:53:49 AM »
Alright, before I get into reading of what's going on and all the rest, I think it's time to say the final power and the drawback to my role.

Y'see, I expected Smodge's reply.  All of my powers?  They were on a timer, and on the morning of day 5, I got the lovely message that the final clause of my power set had kicked in.  Namely, everything else, spent or not, is gone, and all I am now is a Miller.

The reason why I held back was because I figured it'd look a lot better if there was a cop backing all of this up.  Especially given the fact that if Andy hadn't of drawn attention onto the role earlier, there'd only be the desperate miller claim later on.  REgardless....  this still really makes me wonder what the heck is up with Smodge's role, that he managed to get things wrong twice, but he got me right.

Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #969 on: January 27, 2008, 09:57:19 AM »
Ok time to explain my actions as well as i can.
1. Rat, the gutclaims read them, they were my way of breadcrumbing my investigations, i tried researching previous games but it seems cops have an uncanny knack of dieing early on in DL games, you'll notice each day the first post i have that contains opinions on people is the following

Day 2 (i had Investigated Rat)
Quote
Rat - Gut says he is Town, despite staying on the Tom train his posts make sense to me for some odd reason, no reasoning to bac thing up just my gut says something good about him.

Day 3 (I Investigated Gatewalker)
Quote
Thoughts on people.
My gut says that Carth is Town, i also have a good feel about gate for some reason, their arguments just seem to make sense to me.

Day 4 (Yakumo was investigated)
There was no post due to IE crashing, it was late (for me) that it crashed and parents were going to send me to bed in 5 minutes so not enough time to do a new post.
I then wake up to see you hammered while i was sleeping.

Day 5 (El Cideon was investigated)
Quote
My gut Says Rat, Gatewalker, Yakumo and El Cideon are All town, seeing as my gut is often more accurate than my reasoning i choose to list it here.

As for low post count, i was deliberately lurking at points, although late day 1 and day 4 i was being honest about, why was i lurking? i was the cop, i naturally wanted to stay under the radar of both town AND scum.

End of day 1 i wanted to give Strago a chance to at least roleclaim before i decide on him over Tom so i held my vote.

Day 2 I voted Nitori, he was lurkerish and i disliked the whole Patch/Andrew train and said i found arguments against both of them weren't strong enough for me to vote

Day 3 QR claims cop, naturally i think i'm cop and disbelieve her claim, especially when combined with Taishyr beign a Miller.

Day 4 Corwin VS Nitori, i had liked Corwins posts and thats why i voted for Nitori, i flip-flop end of Day 4 because i was trying to work out whether it was Corwin or Nitori scum by analyzing what we knew of Night 2 Actions, Nitori being a Quackdoc fitted in with the night action, where Corwin ebing a full doc didn't, however i discarded it due to the belief that Chisa couldn't Martyr for Andrew.

That analysis of night 2 actions is here.
Quote
Here has what i have been thinking
Hypothetically lets assume Nitori IS a quackdoc
Night 2 would probably look like this (if Andrew is telling the truth)
Chisa Protects Andrew
Mafia target Andrew
Chisa takes the hit.
Nitori "Docs" Andrew
Andrew dodges the kill.

Now here is the Hypothetical where Corwin is the Doc and Nitori the scum
Corwin Targets Andrew.
Chisa Targets Andrew.
Scum Target Andrew with a possible doc buster
Chisa Takes the Docbust
another 3rd party target Andrew?.......

And finally Day 5 with the El Cid issue, i wasn't sure if i was nieve or full cop, Yakumo had turned up Town to me so i believe he was telling the truth about the 1 shot, i was honestly under the impression Cid may be godfather, decided to hold my vote because i need to stand by my investigations until they are proven right/wrong.

Quote
This was on day 2 as well. I can't remember what the status of Random Mafia was at this point in the game, but I do know that Alex was *town* in that game; he may or may not have thought Alex was scum at that point but it's really immaterial; he could't be sure. He *couldn't* draw the conclusion that because Alex was acting that way in one game, the action here was likewise scummy. I think it's possible he may have gotten confused (as, of course, were he scum he'd certainly know Alex was scum in THIS game.)

The main argument against Andrew at the time your reffering to Rat, was that he was fishing for Roles, in random mafia Alex accused me of the same and came after me for 3 solid days on it, sure he turned out town, however i could see how scum could abuse the argument that someone is "role fishing" when they aren'tas a way to get a town member killed, this is why i disliked the argument against andrew.

Quote
Throughout the entire game he's also been enamoured with roles in general (marvelling at the power of town, listing what roles we know exist... I don't know if it's an attempt at fishing or not, but I do know that without justification, role speculation is *dangerous* because of how tells and such can be dropped in responses to it- at the least.)

Marvelling of course i have been, Tom claimed Cop, QR claimed cop, Tai even mentioned 1 shot of it for memory, also Yakumo claimed 1 shot to, naturally if  i'm the damned cop, why are so many people claiming it?, so far we have had more power roles pop up than vanilla's that shows that we had a strong amount of powers under our belts, and that means they're either their seriously flawed or scum have something just as big.

Thoughts on Tonfa later, i'll start reading his posts more in depth.

Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #970 on: January 27, 2008, 10:28:25 AM »
Ok, Role speculation for myself, from the evidence we have here i am either 1 of the following.

1. Insane Supercop and have gotten really lucky with my investigations.
2. Nieve Cop where Targets Roles are stronger than my own, IE Miller's show as scum.

Either way it sucks majorly.

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #971 on: January 27, 2008, 10:58:09 AM »
Gah screw you IE, lost me another post.
30 mins until bedtime, so if it cuts off midsentence its because of crappy IE.
Typing Opinions now.

Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #972 on: January 27, 2008, 11:13:36 AM »
Smodge got you as scum. Let's say he's a legit cop (he certainly can't be naive). We need to explain how he got town results for Cid and Yakko. I think I can account for both of these. Remember that if he's scum, all of this is moot.

1) Cid was a godfather of a different name; regardless, he appears as townie to cop investigations.
2) Yakko was not, in fact, an SK all the time! He was EXACTLY WHAT HE SAID HE WAS and flipped to SK after that day. Why does this seem possible?

Night 4, three people were attacked. One was Tai, who survived, and the other two were Ciato and OK, who did not. How did Tai survive? Yakko claimed to have protected him that night... I think I believe him. He ALSO accurately outed two scum as a schizo Paladin. Remi dies, he flips to SK. Where do all these kills come from? I don't know who targeted who, but I can at least spell out what might be the source-

1) Regular scum NK.
2) Potentially, the vengeful thug- gets extra NKs after they die? Seems possible via the rolename.
3) A Mystery Killer who may still be at large.

Night 5 we have three kills *again*. Who are they?

1) Regular scum NK.
2) Serial Killer Flandre.
3) Either our Mystery Killer, or the vengeful thug strikes again!

It's difficult to account for the mystery kill on either day, and I am inferring what Alex's role did from the name (as others have done.) However, I think it's a pretty good guess. Why don't I think Yakumo was an SK beforehand? It just... doesn't add up; where were his kills from day 1, and where are all these other kills coming from? *Why would he claim cop* if he was an SK all the time? Either he outs scum and they kill him, or he says a bunch of people are town (and that's not really much evidence towards being a cop without seeing flips), or he gets it wrong and scum lynch him for lying/he's branded paranoid/naive/whatever, those aren't good things to be and the probability of getting lynched goes up. For someone who needs to win alone, their survival chances drop pretty sharply with a copclaim like that no matter what their faked results are.

This role is fucked up if what I'm saying is right (docop flipping to SK? *HUH*?) but I.. don't know what else actually fits. Could be wrong about vengeful thug, which means we have a mystery killer and Yakumo as SK killing people on night 4... but then how did yak expect to claim he'd protected Tai and then survive to endgame when something else was responsible?

So, yeah. Seems most likely to me that Flandre was a conditional SK (I figure on Remi's death, I guess, though I can't be that sure.) And back to my original point- if this is true, then Smodge's investigation was accurate when it was done. And I think it's really likely to be true, too.

I'd think lynching Excal would be our best bet at the moment for the information on Smodge's legitimacy alone... except Kilga doesn't necessarily flip miller status on death (after all, if Cid was godfather, that status wasn't flipped.), and we have this pseudo-lylo thing hanging over our heads. If Tonfa isn't lying about being a bomb, the possibility might stem from lynching him, but we still do have NKs out there we can't account for and may still be around.

<->

Smodge's post: Insane supercop is something I obviously can't buy. Naive cop who read scum out of millers anyway is possible. SCUM is possible, I wouldn't put it past you to just forget Excal said he was immune and come up with a result, but he did all but ask for you to investigate him... so I'm probably going to let you off the hook today.

<->

I gotta check Excal/Andrew's posts. But under this light I think he looks awful; for instance, I remember Andrew not declaring night-action immunity until day 3. This seems like a pretty sucky thing to do given that he was actively cultivating attention during day 2 and sucked in two town actions which may have been better used elsewhere (OK watcher and Nitori (weird)doc, respectively) which gave him legitimacy on the 100% night-action immunity thing; did *anyone else* use night actions of any kind on him after that?

IN FACT, I can think of *no reason* not to publicize that to town, not after you've already spoken about a daykill! I... would like to hear Excal explain why Andrew did not declare this before I continue along this line of reasoning.
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Carthrat

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #973 on: January 27, 2008, 11:22:02 AM »
Only wait that can't be right at all because Cid flipped *scum* to Flandre, so either he can't be godfather or Flandre was a paranoid schizo doc-cop who flips to SK, and if it's the former then smodge is... naive, except trumped by miller?

Which means I'm back to looking at Tonfa, as it's the more obvious solution. Christ.
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Smodge13

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Re: Touhou Mafia - Main Topic
« Reply #974 on: January 27, 2008, 11:27:28 AM »
Ok, first Part of the analysis.

Tonfa being Roulette Bomb and Possible LYLO.
If theres only a possibility of Lylo, then that means we can still miss and win dependant on night actions.

Ok, if its possible LYLO absolute worst case scenario therefore = Lylo

Therefore, Hypothetically Tonfa telling Truth worst case scenario
Lynch Tonfa, he detonates on Townie, 2 Town members die overnight, 3 people left alive, for it to be Lylo therefore 2 Non-Town
Exist.

Tonfa telling truth better scenario.
Lynch Tonfa, detonates on Town, 1 town member dies and either scum or 3rd party dies overnight 3 left alive Not in LYLO.

Hypothetically Tonfa Lying worst case scenario
Lynch Townie, 2 Town members die overnight, 4 left Alive, therefore 2 Non-Town Exist Both MUST be on different sides, otherwise it is Fixed Lylo

Tonfa Lying Better scenario.
Lynch Townie, 1 Town dies overnight, 1 3rd party OR scum dies with them, 4 left alive, 1 scum amongst them, not in Lylo

Looking at this, we no matter what have 2 people Non-Town.
Also, 1 of the 2 non-townies is definately 3rd party.

Therefore out there is 1 Scum and 1 3rd Party.

Not sure if theres flaws or not, you guys can point them out probably, this is what i like to call Smodge logic, it makes sense to me, whether i'm missing something big or not others will probably spot long before i do.

Unfortunately i'm out of time so thoughts on people will have to wait until morning.