Touhou Mafia - Main Topic

[Shale]

Okay. Depsite Smodge flailing more since I left, this thing with Excal makes me think it might just be flailing townie, since if he's scum he's either gotten incredibly sloppy and lucky with Excal's immunity timing out (which I seriously doubt), or he and Excal are both scum and they just handed themselves to us on a silver platter in the weirdest scum ploy I've ever seen.

Definitely need to rethink now.

[Shale]

Note: the possibility I "seriously doubt" is that Smodge is scum, Excal is town, and Smodge happened to fake a scum result on Excal on the same night that Excal started reporting scum to cops.

[VySaika]

Alright, I'm up, the deadline looms, and we don't have a confirmed extention yet so its time for me to make a case and throw down my vote. (##Request Extention by the by.)

Rereading the Smodge analysis. It took about seven reads to make sense of it, but eventually I think I got to what you were getting at. There is a problem with that, though. Possible lylo can also exist because of protective roles, not just because of the ratio of nontownies. Remember that in NR, I called possible LYLO on the last day because there was a Doc who could theoretically have blocked the nightkill and stopped it from being LYLO. So, your conclusion that there MUST be 2 non-townies of differing factions doesn't hold up. There could well still be two people working together.

Let me point out where the problem is:

Hypothetically Tonfa Lying worst case scenario
Lynch Townie, 2 Town members die overnight, 4 left Alive, therefore 2 Non-Town Exist Both MUST be on different sides, otherwise it is Fixed Lylo

You seem to be using this particular bit to 'prove' that there is 1 scum, 1 third party left, and running with the assumption that a mislynch and 2 townies dead overnight can't cost us the game here. But, all Possible LYLO means is that there is a way that even if we mislynch, there is a way that we won't just flat out lose. Night actions can still make a difference. Your "2 nontown that MUST be on different sides" theroy only works if you assume that your Tonfa Lying Worst Case scenario doesn't mean a flat out town loss.

Remember, ALL of your scenarios assume we mislynch. And 2 of them show that the game continues anyway. Potential LYLO doesn't mean "there is one situation where the game could end today" it means there's at least 1 situation where the game might not end tonight. Be that from a protective role, an NK hitting a non-townie, or the non-townies being on different sides. And from how it reads, you seem to be taking the second one(NK hitting non-town) into consideration, but still pushing forward your claim that there MUST be exactly 2 non town left, and they MUST be on different sides.

The logic doesn't hold up. And when I think about this...you know what this is starting to strike me as?

"Hey guys, here's PROOF that Excal and I can't be working together! Any non-townies have to be on different sides now!"

As for everyone else, eh, my thoughts haven't changed really. Tai is supercop cleared(and if he somehow flipped alignment on someone's death we're all screwed anyway so might as well treat him like he's clear regardless), Rat and Shale haven't looked bad to me in the least all game, Tonfa still looks sketchy but I can't shake the feeling Hal's death was supposed to frame him and Sakuya I don't know what to make of. Smodge is still the only person who looks flat out bad to me.

So, I've got to ##Vote:Smodge

[Taishyr]

Okay. People, feel free to point out where Tai is having a "durr" moment. I'm just trying to track this all down. I'd post it all at once but I want to look over the topic once more (;_;) and I feel like shit and need to try and sleep, so here this part is, look it over and comment please.

Okay.

I've been silent most of today because most of my time and energy has been invested in tracking three things related to this game: voting patterns, night deaths, and something related to my abilities which are really beginning to confuse me.

Firstly, I had guessed wrong on something; I think, now, I was NK immune days 3/4/5 without being able to tell, though I got a message along the lines of "you seem to lose your cheerful energy" message. Might just be related to Flandre/Alice dying? Lord if I know. Still, this does not invalidate Gate/Yakumo's actions; actually, more I think about it the more I'm inclined to consider it as true.

Okay.

Night Kill Patterns and Theory Behind It

I am currently of the mind that we have two scum remaining, no SK. Maybe a survivor as well, I don't honestly know, this is hurting my brain but it best explains some things.

Where is the third kill coming from? Well. My theory is that it is either a vig or Vengeful Ran. I do not think it is a SK, for then we would have seen kills far earlier than this.

Night 1:
EvilTom
Scum + Quacky.

Night 2:
Andrew/Excal
Quacky.

Chisa
Scum (Either by sacrifice or direct target).

Night 3:
Myself
Scum

Ran - Scum


This is where I begin to wonder. Could Gate have pulled Elite Bodyguard skills? Maybe. I'm inclined to believe he did protect me, if only because that was the best time, in fairness. There's three possibilities here: he claimed because he was what he was, claimed because he's scum who knew I was protected, or claimed because he's more than what he thought - Elite Bodyguard, specifically.

Let's move on, I'll return to Ran's death later.


Night 4:
Myself
OblivionKnight
Ciato

...

Well, okay. Let's assume OK was killed by Scum.

OblivionKnight
Scum

As for myself, assume that Vengeful Ran let the scum get another hit off.

Myself
Vengeful Ran

These can be transpositioned either way; it'd actually make more sense for the scum to try and hit me again while Ran's ability, presuming it is what we think it is, worked.

But then there's Ciato!

Well. Gate's ability could not feasibly have gone off on her, if it is truth.

Scum having three kills is scary and I'm not willing to even think about it right now; besides, there's next night. So it's either SK or Vig. So... Yakumo? He did flip SK! Maybe!

But then where were his kills the nights before? Night 4 is thus why I believe we have a Vig. What of Yakumo, then? Well, let's move on to...


Night 5:
Yakumo
Halbarad
Otter

Remember what Yakumo's claim was - Cop/Doc. This night, he would have been cop. Why draw attention to himself by positing his ability, if he were SK and -knew- the protection on me didn't come from him? Furthermore, scum could not have known his claim was not true - he did just nail El Cid, notably.

So.

Yakumo
Scum

That leaves Halbarad and Otter. Now, there are three possibilities:

SK + Vengeful Ran
SK + Vig
SK + SK

First one... Giving scum a second kill each night? I don't buy this, period, at this point. It was paranoia that lead me to suggest it in the first place, but it would be.... no, it's more likely to me that Vengeful Ran was a one-time-only deal. (Otherwise, why not have Scum kill Alex night 1 so they get an extra kill each night? Or even night 2, where there were no solid role leads?)

So, it's either two SKs, one being Yakumo, or Yakumo + Vig. Problem is, where have the second kills been from the other SK?

So, my postulation is this:

Night 1:
EvilTom
Scum + Quacky.


Night 2:
Andrew/Excal
Quacky.

Chisa
Scum (Either by sacrifice or direct target).


Night 3:
Myself
Scum

Ran - Scum
Vig OR Gatewalker


Night 4:
OblivionKnight
Scum

Myself
Scum (Ran)

Ciato
Vigilante


Night 5:
Yakumo
Scum

Halbarad
Yakumo

Otter
Vig

Day 5 is the most vague one per force, sadly. I do not think a vig would take out Halbarad, nor that scum would target anyone but Yakumo last night. If I am right, tomorrow may have 1 or 2 kills, plus our lynch.

If both kills hit town and we mislynch today, that is 4, two of which are scum. This is a scum win, and where I fear our potential LYLO comes in. This -also- disproves any idea the Vengeful Ran would still be active, I think, because if the scum could coordinate their kills they would have us directly in LYLO today, I believe. (There may be a way to counter night abilities, as well. I don't know. Regardless, while it is possible that Vengeful Ran is still in play... mrr.)

So.

[Tonfa]

It has been a long day, and I'm really tired and don't care enough to sacrifice precious sleep. Will wake before deadline, though I will ask for an ##Extension regardless as this day will make or break the game.

Short: Most uneasy thing here is the smodge/Excal copping. Both would look really bad without it in play, both of them could well be scum playing a ploy. Excal being scum but smodge not being scum seems more likely than vice versa, though, due to faking a miller claim being way easier than getting the correct investigative result through pure guessing when earlier claim played up naive cop-ism. Augh.

However I don't have any OTHER suspects so um. Should look into Rat but he's generally played good town and I'm too tired to comb anything.

Main suspect Excal via process of elimination. His mysterious kill powers extending beyond the one public shot would also fill some holes in the death record.

May as well have a vote in there.

##Vote: Excal

[VySaika]

Quick question Tai. When you talk about Ciato's death, you said:

Well. Gate's ability could not feasibly have gone off on her, if it is truth.

What ability? My bodyguardness? I used my one and only shot of that on night 3. Did you mean to say someone else there? Everything else you said made sense but that line really has me confused.

[Shale]

Tonfa: Why Excal and not Smodge? At this point the only way Excal is scum is if Smodge is too, because Smodge, if he is town, is a naive cop and would return town on an actual scumbag.

[Shale]

Although, hm. I guess there could be some power in play that makes otherwise sane cops read non-Godfather town as scum, a reverse framer sort of thing. Other than that, though, is there any situation other than a lying townie where Excal is scum and Smodge is not?

[Excal]

##:Extension

If that works, it's a good thing for us.  Anyways, I suppose it is possible that there are two scum left, though the number of people we started the game with suggests that it would be unlikely for there to be five scum in total, with the implication being that it is liklier that there is a third party and scum.

That said, if we are starting to run out of time, then I suppose a vote should be put down.  Given my position, a vote for Tai, Smodge, or Gate is silly, and would be counter productive.  Which leaves me with Rat, Shale, and Tonfa.  Rat's generally been playing a good game, and Shale's been more innocuous than not.  Both of them can make good cover, but Hal raised some good points, and he flipped town, so I'm inclined to trust his reasoning, and give his case a whirl.

##Vote: Tonfa

[Smodge13]

Rereading the Smodge analysis. It took about seven reads to make sense of it, but eventually I think I got to what you were getting at. There is a problem with that, though. Possible lylo can also exist because of protective role

I had thought of protective roles, the reason it was discarded was because there has been no proof of it, the only "protection" that we've seen work is gates 1 shot other than that there seems to be nothing out there (especially with Yakumo's cop/doctor dying), this is why i discarded it.

##:Extension

As for voting Tonfa, well its him Shale or Rat as far as i see it, personally i believe a bomb should be given benefit of doubt at least 1 day in this case but seeing as we need majority and i may not be back before deadline (unless kilga gives an extension)
Vote:Tonfa
Rat and Shale i know i can't talk people round to voting, especially when im not here, and i believe its a 2/3 chance of us hitting scum if we vote for any of those 3.
This would naturally be removed if we get an extension and more discussion.

[Kilgamayan]

24 hour extension granted. The day now ends at 12:30 AM Wednesday, which is about 32.5 hours from now.

[Kilgamayan]

Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

Smodge13 (2): Carthrat, Gatewalker
Excal (1): Tonfa
Tonfa (2): Excal, Smodge13 (please don't forget the octothorpes in the future)

[Smodge13]

##Unvote: Tonfa
Sorry kilga, i was in a hurry.

[Carthrat]

Tai, when did you get this message? With regards to your post, well. It hasn't really helped me decide on who we want to vote for right now, which is our problem. We've asked a couple times already if people think they can shed light on what's been going on and nobody has stepped forward, and that's the only thing I think would really help us along the 'who's killed who' front.

<->

I dunno what to make of Shale's role theory. I guess it's *possible* something like that exists but it seems unlikely. When it comes to bizzare roles it's very difficult to speculate. But I'll second his question to Tonfa (why vote Excal and not Smodge?)

<->

Smodge and Excal both voted for Tonfa. He's one of my candidates too, although so are both of them.

If we go for the Tonfa lynch we have to be careful. Since he's claiming roulette bomb we should try to minimize the chance of him hitting a townie. This means I think everyone can agree Gate and Tai are off the cards for being on the votetrain there (as he already suggested, I think?)

<->

I think that at this point it's really going to be up to those who haven't voted- i.e. Tai+Shale. Tai in *particular*. I am still leaning towards Smodge, mainly because of wariness of Tonfa's bombclaim, and because it will likely show if he and Excal are actually working together or not. But I wouldn't be objecting at all to the lynch of Tonfa if he hadn't claimed.

[Tonfa]

Oh. Looks like I was too tired to notice flawed logic yesterday. Naive cop trumped by miller wouldn't return scum if the target was, uh, ACTUALLY scum. Duh. Sorry about that.

##Unvote: Excal

Be back later.

[Shale]

O....kay. I'm not sold on Tonfa's roleclaim, but it does make me hesitant to vote for him when there are other viable suspects, namely Smodge and Excal. So.

Thanks to their roleclaims, if one of Excal and Smodge is scum, then the other almost certainly is too. So to vote for one, as far as I can see, is to say that both are likely scum. I've made my case on Smodge and stand by it, but if I'm going to vote for him then I have to justify at least being suspicious of Excal, too.

The case against Andrew/Excal as scum, as opposed to just non-town, is...well, not great. First, you have to set aside the inherent weirdness of a daykilling scumbag. Plus, first Corwin and then Alex were trying hard to get him lynched, especially after OK claimed and set up what turned out to be a one-for-one. Alex could have been busing there - he certainly would have looked good if Andy flipped scum, and the scum got as much as they could ever want out of his daykill - but...why bus someone to put off a one-for-one? The OFO might be a bad deal for scum, but it's a better deal than just busing somebody.

On the other hand, it explains why they'd push for his lynch instead of just NKing him, and the scum exposed thus far did use faked arguments between the three of them to decent effect (although never even close to outright busing).

Arghle. I think I'm in the process of talking myself into voting Tonfa, but I'm by no means sure.

[Shale]

With all that taken into account, though, a pragmatic part of my brain is yelling at me not to lynch Tonfa unless he's the last option left, just because bomb plus scum nightkill plus the remaining mystery kill could devastate town overnight if we guess wrong, and Smodge's flip would tell us a lot about Excal, which makes him pretty much the most informative option we've got.

As I've said so many times in this game, ARGH MY BRAIN.

[Taishyr]

In middle of long post. Why do these things take me forever to do? Seriously.

On this note, if you must inquire, at this point of longpostislong I'm leaning away from Smodge and toward Tonfa for the lynch today, but... mrrrrrrr I've got the feeling this is all wrong, which is why I'm doing this post, I'm trying to make damn sure no one has slipped up.

[Taishyr]

...

Computer crashed, ate my post, even up to where I had saved. So I have nothing for about 10 hours of work. Yes, I had that much done.

asdfdsasdfdsa.

Okay. To summarize: I'm currently banking on Smodge/Excal as town. ...This is more hunch than anything, but I strongly doubt Excal is scum, unless he switched to scum instead of town last night which would mildly cheese me off except that wouldn't explain Smodge, so they'd both have to be scum -now- and I don't... feel that's likely. Carthrat I still feel is good to go. Gatewalker, Shale and Tonfa are thus the three remaining; of the three, unless I hear something to contradict, I feel Tonfa is the best bet, having gone over Hal's arguments and mostly found myself in agreement with them.

I'll post more relevant details once I can bring myself to reassemble whatever I can remember. God, so pissed right now.

[Smodge13]

Of to work, won't be back ebfore deadline.
Tonfa,Shale, Rat look like the best lynches today but if we want to keep Gate and Tai off the roulette table everyone will need to vote if we go for Tonfa.
##Vote:Tonfa

[Carthrat]

I can get behind going after Tonfa, like I said, and I'm aware I'll be someone who has to vote for him. We've got about seven hours until deadline? I'm gonna toss my vote over. Shale's got misgivings over lynching a bomb- we *all* do- and my position is still malleable, but there's not that long to go and I don't actually know when other people are going to be around to discuss things.

I will probably be here around deadline time- if we want to discuss things more we should be able to in the interim.

##Unvote, ##Vote: Tonfa

[Taishyr]

Mrf. I am suddenly hesitant, though this could just be my secondguessing nature.

I am almost tempted to ask for roleclaims, but it's too late for them to be much use. I think I know who the vig is, anyway, so I can try to grab a shot myself and use it tomorrow.

[Tonfa]

Heh. Lynching me is an absolutely horrible idea but the sad part is I can't really find decisive counterarguments. Smodge/Excal as scum case just feels off in some way and I can't find a single scumtell out of anyone else (not that I'm looking too hard. Frankly I've been burnt out on this game at endgame even if I had some more time to check it out).

Ah screw it. Going with most likely case.

##Vote: smodge13

I am going to sleep now. I may or may not awaken before deadline. If you hammer me do it without Tai plzkthx.

[Nitori]

Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game! Vote Count:

Smodge13 (2): Carthrat, Gatewalker, Tonfa,
Excal (0): Tonfa
Tonfa (3): Excal, Smodge13 , Carthrat

There are about 7 hours left~

DANGER! DANGER! TONFA IS ONE VOTE AWAY FROM LYNCH!

[Shale]

A this point I'm still open to either one as potential scum. Behavior-wise they're close to equal, with Smodge still in the lead for me, so it's all down to the roles, which support Smodge being both more likely to be town and much less likely to doom us all with a mislynch. So it all adds up to a headache. I've already typed up and erased a Tonfa-hammer twice out of sheer "let's get this over with"ness, but...argh. I just can't convince myself that it's our best chance.

Also...something that just occurred to me. If scum have a rolecop and Kilga is generous with the information he gives (Kilga? Generous with info? I guess weirder things have happened), they'd have a way to know about Excal being a miller.