AWARDS
Most Valuable Player
Lebron James, obviously. They could give this award out at the beginning of the season instead of the end for as long as this guy wants to dominate. There's no metric you can use that outputs a different result; best player on the best team (both by far), most efficient, most statistically spectacular, most visually spectacular (Wade perhaps challenges here). When Lebron really turns it on, it's like watching an NBA player playing high school players - and then you remember those "high school" players are among the top one or two hundred basketball players in the world.
Rookie of the Year
Speaking of obvious choices.
Tyreke Evans mauls Brandon Jennings (and most other rookies, ever) statistically, so the difference in team records never enters as a tipping point. And Stephan Curry plays for the Warriors, so a pace-adjusted look at his production exposes it as good, but hardly great.
Coach of the Year
Scott Brooks has done an amazing job with the Thunder this year, but I have to give it to
Nate McMillan for shepherding the Blazers to a sixth seed despite the most injury plagued season in the league. Hell, Nate himself got injured this year and they still pulled through.
Defensive Player of the Year
Last year, I though Chris Andersen should have gotten the award for nearly equaling
Dwight Howard's block totals in about half the minutes. But Andersen has fallen off, as overachieving role players are wont to do, while Howard continues to dominate the D.
Sixth Man of the Year
Most Improved Player
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
ROUND 1
EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
The Bulls will play hard, gritty basketball.
The Cavs have Lebron James, who may or may not have been infused with JENOVA cells before he was born, because that is some Sephiroth shit right there.
When you consider that the Cavs would most likely win this series without Lebron - they almost won their last meeting when he sat the game out, despite also being sans Shaq-who-actually-looks-halfway-like-Shaq and having nothing to play for - this becomes the most absurd series in the postseason.
Cavaliers in 4Orlando Magic (2) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (7)
Who in the hell do you think the Bobcats are?!
Because seriously, I have no clue. They're a "roll d20" team, completely unpredictable. They beat the Cavs handily this season, something almost nobody could do. But they lost games to the bottom-feeders, and it's not like they consistently hung with the top teams, either. Stephen Jackson has always been a lolrandom player, so that's no surprise, but I'd expect more consistency from a Larry Brown team.
About the only sure thing is that the Bobcats will play physical and ugly up the game, if they can. That's worked against Dwight Howard in the past.
Ultimately, Orlando's consistency and the beastliness of Howard should carry the day here. But then, Vince Carter exists, so...
Magic in 5Atlanta Hawks (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
If Andrew Bogut were playing, this would be my pick for the first round's most likely upset. Bogut's horrific injury changes everything, though, and I just don't think the Bucks have enough inside to do more than put a brave face on things.
The Hawks have more talent and a lot more experience. They are healthy going into the Playoffs against a team missing probably its best player.
On the flip side, they have Mike Bibby and the best active player on the other team is a point guard, so, hey, look forward to Brandon Jennings starting off his career with some extremely flashy playoff 'per game's, and maybe even going off like crazy to win a couple.
Hawks in 6Boston Celtics (4) vs. Miami Heat (5)
Boston sucked up the end of the season worse than the Lakers, without the recent ring and undeniable talent to back it up. Their big three looked more like an average three, Rasheed Wallace looked like 1.5 Rasheed Wallaces and played like .05, and they couldn't play in the 4th quarter.
The Heat turned it up in the second half of the season - but they're not as smoking as they look. Their schedule was so soft you could sell it as pillow down, and I'm not talking memory foam.
Ultimately, I think Boston is
better, but I don't think they'll
win. Give Tony Allen and Jermaine O'Neal their averages and Game 1 would have probably gone the other way. I'd expect O'Neal to give his average more often than Allen.
Heat in 6WEST
LA Lakers (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (8)
The Lakers have sucked it up for the second half of the season, coasting even when, by rights, they actually *did* have a lot to play for, what with losing home court to both of the meaningful East teams and coming within a couple of games of sliding behind Dallas. Nor have they impressed, well, EVER this year, getting curbstomped by the Cavs in a pair of showcase games and losing the season series to their rivals from last year, the Nuggets, 1-3, including a loss in LA where Carmelo Anthony didn't even play.
On the flip side, Durant is the only Thunderer I think is worthy of the hype; maybe it's a style thing, but Westbrook and Green don't impress me much. OKC doesn't have the talent to hang with the Lakers for a series. Especially when they've been slumping, too.
Also, the NBA Playoffs are only a couple of steps removed from professional wrestling; if the Thunder actually could win, they'd get screwed.
Lakers in 5Dallas Mavericks (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
The storied matchup returns! Dallas's talent against San Antonio's championship savvy! Dirk vs. Duncan in a matchup of two of the three best 4s of their generation! Kidd vs. Parker in a rematch of an NBA Finals!
All of which would be more exciting if the Spurs weren't in their worst season since Duncan joined the team and the Mavericks weren't the most absurdly stacked team in for-freaking-ever.
Mavericks in 5Phoenix Suns (3) vs. Portland Trailblazers (6)
The Blazers won the season series, and McMillan is my pick for CotY.
But Phoenix is playing the best basketball in the league right now. Not only are they beating their opponents, they're absolutely destroying them; their last two games against playoff contenders with tons to play for? A pair of blowouts in which the Suns never appeared to break a sweat.
This still could have been a great series, since Portland is stacked with talent when healthy. But - when healthy. I have a ton of respect not just for their coach but for their players, especially perennial winner Andre Miller, but I just don't see them having enough in the tank to win this without Roy, or even seriously challenge.
Suns in 5Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Denver got the best matchup it could have had (except, perhaps, OKC) when Phoenix followed up an embarrassing whupping of the Nuggets with a back-to-back embarrassing whupping of the Jazz.
Denver has more talent, good matchups, and won the season series handily. Carmelo Anthony has played some of his best ball against Utah, and that's when going against Andre Kirilenko.
Who is out. As, after last night, Mehmet Okur may be. The Jazz are injury-plagued at exactly the wrong time, and Deron William's greatness and Jerry Sloan's consistent excellence aren't enough to make up the gap.
At the same time, if the Nuggets pull ahead of the Jazz, they're more likely than perhaps any other playoff team to let up the throttle and blow some easy games.
Nuggets in 6ROUND 2
EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Miami Heat (5)
Wade gets the chance to audition in the King's Court, trying to court him to Miami with the newly generous salary cap.
I say that not because it has a snowball's chance in hell of happening, but because it has more of a chance of happening than the Heat have of beating the Cavs in a seven game series.
Or, really, at all.
If you match Lebron and Wade, Cleveland is better at every position including every single bench player. By, like... a lot.
(Boston winning would make no difference in my prediction.)
Cavaliers in 4Orlando Magic (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (3)
On the one hand, Vince Carter. Can I really believe he won't spectacularly fold in the postseason, giving his first reasonable opponents the win?
On the other hand, Mike Bibby. Can I really believe he won't give up an extra 10 ppg and 10% efg% to the opposing point, giving his first reasonable opponents the win?
On the gripping hand, both these overhyped scrubs have great teammates who can make up for their high levels of fail. Of these, Howard is the best, but Atlanta has more.
This should be a great series, but ultimately I have to give it to Superman.
Magic in 7WEST
LA Lakers (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (4)
The Nuggets handily won their season series against LA; in two of those games, they never even struggled. They also match up fairly well and are sort of built to beat the Lakers. The Nuggets should also get George Karl back in this series, after playing only OK under Adrian Dantley.
The Lakers beat the Nuggets in the playoffs last year with minimal help from the officials. They're more talented, with Pau Gasol being the biggest difference-maker, and they have the weight of their vast market behind them. Phil Jackson consistently outcoaches George Karl anyway, so I'm not sure how much Karl's return matters.
Both of these teams are shadows of what they were last year, the Lakers offensively and the Nuggets defensively. If one gets their act together and the other doesn't, it will be a stomp for whichever team is on the ball. If neither or both do, it should be a competitive series.
Lakers in 7Dallas Mavericks (2) vs. Phoenix Suns (3)
The hottest team in the NBA in Phoenix, the most talented team in the NBA in Dallas, the rematch of long-time friends and comrades Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, a storied rivalry...
And unlike the Dallas-San Antonio matchup, this one should live up to the hype.
This should be the best series of the year, by a lot. Both these teams are championship caliber and have played like it. Both are so deep and talented they've been able to rest their starters. Neither has a crippling weakness in personnel or psychology. Both are well coached. Both have a former MVP who remains a legit superstar. Both have a great supporting cast.
In the end, I have to give the tiniest of margins to home court, and figure the Suns have been marginally more screwed than the Mavs over the years.
Mavericks in 7CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Orlando Magic (2)
The two best players in the NBA! Unfortunately, they don't match up, so it's not as cool of a rivalry as if they were both centers or both swingmen or something.
Howard's dominance is almost unchallenged... except that Shaq, for all he's nowhere near dominant these days, seems to match up very well with him. Ilgauskas's ability to spread the floor should also help, at least somewhat.
Lebron is more consistently unstoppable, and this year I think he finally has the supporting cast to win this matchup.
Stan Van Gundy is, I suspect, the better coach here, but not necessarily the better postseason coach.
If the Mavs/Suns matchup last round wasn't the best of the playoffs, this might well be, because these are probably the two best teams in the NBA.
Cavaliers in 7WEST
LA Lakers (1) vs. Dallas Mavericks (2)
Dallas is more talented, hotter, and has a better best player.
LA sometimes fields eight players on the court at once.
This series comes down completely to how fair this year's playoffs are going to be. Dallas wins every matchup except shooting guard, most by a large margin.
The league will have to cheat more for the Lakers than they have since 2002, maybe more than ever, to make this series anything but a curbstomp.
Mavericks in 6NBA FINALS
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has more aggregate talent.
Cleveland has by far the best player.
Both teams are stacked from top to bottom, starters to bench, but the Mavs are moreso.
Both teams have great starting lineups, but the Mavs have a bit better one.
Both teams had a very tough matchup on their way here, but Cleveland's came more recently.
I think Rick Carlisle wins the coaching matchup with Mike Brown. It should be a good coaching duel, though, especially since Brown was Carlisle's assistant during the latter's best years in Indiana.
Ultimately, I can't help but expect Lebron to will the Cavaliers to a title this year, since they should be in reach of one and maybe even favored for it. Home court should seal the deal.
Cavaliers in 7(If the Magic won last round, I would give it to the Mavericks in 7 after almost as tough a series, especially interesting because Gortat might end up being an X-factor and the Mavs tried to sign him.)
(If the Lakers won last round, I would give it to the Cavs in 6. Could be as few as 4 or 5, but the Lakers would have to have found some of their rhythm to get this far and they have enough talent to at least make it a series.)
