VtM:M - Vampire the Masquerade Mafia

[QuietRain]

Since Ratkin has asked for our opinions, I think I'll go ahead and got something down quick here before my next meeting.

After Fluffytails' roleclaim, I am...unmoved.  Unfortunately, this is because I am not moved by Ratkin's claim to be town.  I think a daykill could be a town ability, yes.  I just think it much more likely to be a third party ability.  And as such, Fluffytail's claim to be his backup vig has a few options for me.

Fluffytails=SCUM: In this scenario, he's got guts.  For a scum to suffer a vigkiller to live just to keep from dying is inherantly risky.  It tells me that whatever it is Fluffytails can do is scarier to us than what what Ratkin can do to them.  o.0

Fluffytails=TOWN: In this scenario, it sucks.  We lose a potential backup because there's no WAY scum are going to suffer Ratkin to live if they have any say in the matter.  It may take a few tries if we get some successful doc-ing or bodyguarding, but they'll get him eventually.

Fluffytails & Ratkin are in on it together: Now, this can work 1 of 3 ways in and of itself.

If they're both scum, Ratkin takes only minor town cred damage for supporting a non-kill on the scum because he still dutifully did the town's will and killed the scum.  And it pretty much cements our inability to take Ratkin out without a massive mess on his part, due to trusting his extra kill.

If they're both town...see above.

Now, if they're both part of the same third party (it's been ahwile since I've seen a cult in a mafia game so I'm not going to rule it out), then they're banking on our backing down in the anticipation of scum killing off Ratkin.  Hmm, actually that really makes no sense as if Ratkin died and flipped 3rd party...Fluffytail's days are numbered from a lynch far faster than from a NK.

So, option 1 means Fluffytails' gotta GO and go NOW. Option 2 means we (as per usual) shoot ourselves in the foot on day 1.  If they're both scum, we get a phyrric victory.  If they're both town, see option 2.  And..I don't like even chances.  

Fluffytails has felt off all game.  I can't excuse it based just off of a welltimed roleclaim that I am torn on believing or not.  So, my vote will stay where it is for now.  I can see the Saga Boss' argument that the Water Mammal's erratic behavior is also worthy of insight.  But right now I think we need to pony up and make a decision firmly.  Ratkin's deadline has already been extended far enough to allow for Fluffytails to come back with his late rebuttal.  I don't relish the thought of giving ourselves even LESS time on the far side of the flip to argue who should be aour lynch based on this information.  I am...leery of Fluffytail's scumminess, but so far only he and the Water Mammal are setting off my alarms and unless we can get a few more people to weigh in on THAT, I'd rather be firm and make a flipping decision.

---------------------
And note for the Recurring FF Character's ability: Let's not use it, really, unless we have to.  More lynches are good for us and bad for NotUs.

EDITED FOR WAY TOO MANY NINJA POSTS

[Otter]

Oh yeah, and I said it already but I'll say again that I strongly oppose offing Alex right now.  Take that for what it's worth.

EDIT for Rat: fair enough.  Well, my vote's still on OK because I don't see a problem with killing two lurkers in one day, that's dandy to me, but you insist that that's a waste, so.  Let's see what candidate rises above the "hasn't said a damn thing" threshold.  For me, that's... definitely no one, right now.

[AndrewRogue]

Ho’kay. Well, Alex’s post definitely goes a long way towards explaining his particular stance on that matter. Presuming he is town, being a back-up for our dayvig would be hideously unusual. Furthermore, he’s gone and further elaborated on some of the stuff I had problems with, which is good and makes me a happy Andrew.

So, for now at least, ##Unvote: Alex

I do want to put out one particular morsel regarding Carth, however. While I understand the particular emotions and thoughts that go into it. Well…

I'll say it now, I guess; if I actually live until LYLO, all the previous rules are void. Do people have a problem with this? My reasoning is that the game changes considerably at this point (it's dangerous to cast votes; scum are close to having a majority; roles and such might exist and mess things up and so on.) *Unless it is LYLO I will always follow town majority.*

This rings a little off with me, as, what it essentially boils down to, is “I agree to follow town’s decisions, right up until the end, in which case I decide the game.” Alternatively, “I’ll follow town right up until there can’t really be repercussions for my actions.” It isn’t damning, but it is the kind of statement that makes me want to be a bit wary and start watching Rat as the game winds down.

In essence, I’m not asking town to go “Grr, lynch Rat!” I’m just asking that we remember that there is a very ugly worst case scenario that could crop up, with Rat actually being anti-town and plaing us all for saps until he can vig/NK the last people without suspicion because he played good townie all game.

Moving along will be done in another post, because I just got back, now I’m up to class. I’ll try to get another one during class/before I go to talk/after I update WoW Mafia. Blarghle.

[Shale]

M'kay. Alex. Let's make one thing clear: THIS IS A SAFE ROLECLAIM FOR SCUM TO MAKE. He is claiming a role that only activates if Carthrat dies. However, Carthrat is unlikely to be lynched until endgame as long as he uses power as town dictates, and the scum are the ones who decide who dies at night. If the scum don't kill Rat, Alex never has to prove his power.

Now, there are other reasons for the scum not to kill Rat besides giving Alex cover - double lynches can kill townies twice as fast, so if they're doing particularly well at causing mislynches then his presence can help them. Plus he's the only outed power role and as such is obvious doc-bait.  Or he could be scum. There's no point in looking at whether he lives through the night and saying "this proves [or disproves] Alex's claim." Just don't trust it solely because it looks testable.

Now then. The anti-Cid crusade. I can see where he's coming from on this, as analyzing things from a bright-line "do this and I'll think you're town, but do that and I'll vote for you" standpoint is bad logic, and it can also give scum the appearance of an overzealous townie. Alex is notably pro-training on Day 1; this is not out of character. Dropping the vote in the face of a testable roleclaim is a logical move for town or scum.

The most suspicious thing Alex has done from my point of view is reverse his position on extensions when presented with nothing more than a statement of the obvious from me. That 24-hour days are not condusive to good conversation when the people involved have jobs and live on different continents is not earth-shattering. I'm not going to throw down a vote just for that, but it's something I'll keep in mind down the line.

Need food. More later.

[Ranmilia]

I meant that I have read games which have actually had it.  But why does that distinction matter, exactly?  It doesn't automatically confirm the user as protown, simple as that. 

Cid isn't cleared, but he's also not at the point where an immediate use of his power is necessary to clear him, either.  The case on him, like all day 1 cases, is not exceptionally substantial.  Saying that a dayvig gives us more leeway to abandon townkills for this is quite fallacious, a townkill is a townkill, a cleared townie is not worth sacrificing a townkill for and a power role dispute that could result in a sacrificed townkill is not worth pursuing on day 1-level evidence. 

These arguments from this source are odd enough to convince me to drop down a
##Vote: Otter.

I'd like to respond further to QR, but unfortunately there's not much to be said about a gutclaim of "he's felt off all game."  Which is why I feel they should be generally avoided.  Her earlier vote on me cites... nothing except for the timing of my lack of roleclaim.  Like I said, at the time I went to sleep, I was tied or nearly so with Cid, discounting the Anonyvote, Cid had not roleclaimed, I'd recently made a post defending my position and a couple of people (Rat and Otter) had said they liked the arguments therein.  Looking back further, I see only a citation of other people's gutclaims on me.  QR's lack of vote reasons are also raising a large red flag to me now. 

Speaking of the Anonyvote:
- Will *anyone* claim responsibility for it?
- Has OK posted at all?  Lemme go check on that.

[AndrewRogue]

He hasn't. Hence my earlier votes on him!

[Ranmilia]

And... he has not. 

Mods, is OK going to be poked/modkilled/replaced for inactivity?

[Excal]

Personally, I'm for letting Cid use his power on Day 1.  Yes, it does give up a lynch, but I've always found a confirmed townie to be worth more than a potential chance at lynching scum.  It means that the scum are hemmed in more, and they have more targets they need to aim at.  And why does the Cid debate matter?  Because it means that if our lynch doesn't matter, then we can safely pick a lurker for our vigkill and then shut the day down in proper order.

As well, the big thing I dislike in the argument that we can leave Cid for later is because I cannot conceive of a day where we'll have less to go on in terms of who to lynch than on Day 1.  The only other use for Governor is either when the person using it isn't known to the rest of us and wants to go by his gut over ours, and when he's alive at LYLO, and the scum try to hammer someone besides him.  Given how unlikely it is that he can survive that long, and how I'd like to have him confirmed to draw fire away from unclaimed but potentially more useful roles (assuming we have them.  It's entirely possible we don't with a backup dayvig), giving up our least accurate lynch seems a good deal.

As such, I'm going to join Otter in the lurker hunt.

##Vote: OK

[Sierra]

I agree with holding off on an Alex daykill. It's an odd claim and I'm not sure whether to trust it or not...but I think it best to wait at least until tomorrow before dealing with him. At the very least, we need to wait and see the person he claims he's a backup for actually use his stated power.

My vote's staying on Otter. His attacks on me were horribly framed, and when I called him out on this (page six) he withdrew his vote with almost no comment. I quoted several instances of gross exaggeration on his part and he neither stood by his statements nor retracted them--he simply ignored the whole issue. I believe you can learn a great deal from what someone doesn't say, and avoiding an issue this completely sends up a major red flag in my mind. The impression I'm likely to get is that they're not answering because an explanation could damage their position. Thus, silence looks even worse than almost anything he could've said.

EDIT: Blah. Ninja'd, but no, OK has not posted at all. Hence, I'm keeping him in mind for the post-vig voting session. I have to ask, though: has anyone seen him on IRC ot AIM since the game started? I'm pretty sure he hasn't posted anything anywhere else on the board.

[Excal]

Cid, the reason he didn't retract them or refute you is because, if you test your powers tonight, then the whole issue becomes moot.  You either stop the lynch, or you do not.  If you do, then you're almost certainly town, therefore the arguments against you are likely false regardless of their validity without that overwhelming proof against them.  If you cannot do what you were claiming you can do, then you have lied.  Which means that you are almost certainly scum, even if you looked like a saint before that claim.

It's not that refuting you will make him look bad.  It's that there's little point in reasoning it out further given that you've handed us a far surer method of testing your alignment.

[QuietRain]

Fluffytails, if you don't feel the need to go back and re-read my posts to see what I HAVE discussed about you that's fine.  But please don't pretend they don't exist because you don't like what they say.

The Reoccuring FF Character lynch train: I don't see this one.  I'll be honest.  I went back over and read his arguments and the responses to them and he has a point that the Water Mammal and Fluffytails have taken everything he's been saying to extremes in the interests of making their own points.  I don't know if I exactly think that's scummy right now, though.  It's Day 1 and town tends to kill each other with just as much fervor as scum on every Day 1 that I've seen.  They have good points, but they're also fast tracking him to the vigkill based on arguments which really make my 'something's wrong' senses pester the heck out of me.

Back to the matter at hand, Fluffytails' actions have seemed somewhat at odds with what he's saying.  He pushes for not running things up to the deadline, but then says, 'don't vig me before I have a chance to get back and roleclaim if necessary'.  ANYtime there's a roleclaim there's a period where people need to think a bit on whether a)they believe said claim and b)whether it's justifiable to ignore all the things that made them vote the person in the first place to preserve a claim they DO believe.  So, by his own comments about not rushing things to the deadline, Fluffytails should have roleclaimed then.  He was the leading candidate. It's doubtful that someone would have garnered so many more votes in the hours leading up to the Ratkin's kill to take him completely out of the running.  The Recurring FF character has claimed since there was a sizeable enough train on him to put him within easy reach of Ratkin's dayvig (and Ratkin himself said he'd vote him over Fluffytails if it came down to it).  Now we all get to analyze his power and see what that tells us.  I am not a fan of Day 1 rolelcaims, but really if your comment explicitly states not to vig you because you intend to do so if it saves you life, your life is in peril enough to warrant doing it then and not forcing a deadline to go later.

My 'he's been acting odd' was directy related to the quotes above referencing you doing things that you have in the past said you don't do unless you're scum.  Don't fault me for listening to you.  Now, what I mean by that:

Re:  Deadline behavior.  So, day 3 in Touhou.  At the start of the day, I played the good little townie and warned everyone to use their time wisely and don't dally till you hit two deadline crunches.  Town proceeded to do exactly that.  First deadline crunch was minor but there.  When I woke up after the QR vig and saw Corwin on the block, I was sure he was a goner, but the lynch on him just wasn't pressed, wasn't hammered, and we got some time to turn it back around and cast doubt on Nitori.  And sure enough the second deadline crunch hit and we managed to push through the lynch on the real doctor.  Town's behavior with regards to deadlines and timing and hammering lynches was pretty much directly responsible for letting Cor momentarily slip off the gallows.  Happy time for scum, though promptly ruined that night, but that's a story for another time.

So you say we should not dally on lynching people on the chance that they're scum and dallying just gives the scum more time to hurry up and find a better scapegoat.

Town does win via discussion, but this should not be confused with "Well let's make every game day a week/month/Mafiascum.net so we discuss thoroughly!"  There just isn't a need for it, past a certain point the game drags and people get into the habit of procrastinating and not taking action as well as discussing things.  And I have said this in every game I've played in, plus the ones I've modded, and yelled it at the ones I haven't done either in.  Loudly.  Soooo... not sure where VSM's coming from there.  I'm not anti-discussion, I'm pro-action.  </Super Tuesday madness>

Now this is where I see the Extreme Hyperbole^tm that you usually go after in patented townie fashion.  The fact that you actually DO IT, then try to say 'Why do these people think I'm scummy for no reason' as if we didn't quote that same passage several times in the course of this argument, makes me feel that you're acting out of character.

This is not as 'gut vote' because I have nothing to go on except that you just 'feel wrong'.  This is  a gut vote because you're acting out of character compared to the games where you've played a townie before.  Your playstyle has felt very deflective and your roleclaim does not convince me.  So, pick it apart if you’d like, but please don’t pretend I haven’t said anything to date.

[AndrewRogue]

Bleh. Class is making this hard to dig around.

Suffice to say, Otter and OK are my candidates at the moment.

Otter is engaging in a style of argumentation that I don't find to be beneficial for town (which is to say, using some relatively poor diction). Furthermore, certain elements of his arguments feel off to me. Notably the whole idea that Cid should use his "town" power to "prove" himself as townie. Honestly, this is... silly, at best, and once again lulls us into that sense of "Yay, let's blindly trust roleclaims!" This is obviously a sentiment I disagree with.

OK... isn't here! This is scummy to begin with.

Given the potential for a mod kill to come down on OK at this point though... mrgh. I'd rather not use up one of our kills on someone who might well get the mod boot at this point. He's getting really close to 48 hours without a peep, which is pretty much against the rules.

##Vote: Otter

Most stand out in my mind who hasn't put up a defense for himself that makes me reluctant to lynch him.

Also, I should say, I DO agree that Cid should demonstrate his power relatively soon just to prove he actually has it.

[Carthrat]

The more I think about Alex's roleclaim, the less good a scum option it seems to me. Shale said that he thinks scum could be going for killing us all off faster... but... the daykill is actually BAD for scum, you know? The speed this is immaterial, honestly, it's how the kills are distributed, and two town to one scum looks good no matter how you slant it. The validity of this option comes from staying out the radar long-term.

OK hasn't posted and I don't really want to vig him as a compromise candidate when his situation seems better suited to modkill (lurking? No, I don't think he's here to lurk.)

I am actually getting leery of leaping around from person to person and ending up with half the town claimed on day 1. So.

I intend to whittle this down somewhat. Out of the present people around, four people are under the greatest scrutiny: Otter, Alex, Cid, and OK.

-I think Cid and Alex's claims are both indicative of towniness rather than scumminess. I would not like to lynch either of them at this point. If I had to choose between them, I would attack Cid at this point. Yes, either could be faked, but this forces that player to walk a razor wire for the rest of the game.

-Otter has made an odd turn of phrase earlier. I don't believe that abandoning the potential for two kills EVEN ON DAY ONE for a shot of governor is a particularly wise move, and I don't think scum get 'hemmed in' as much as Excal believes. I still find his earlier vote on Cid bizzare; the one where he didn't actually explain it all and said 'a cid train is fine too', iirc.

-I don't think we should lynch OK at all and should instead allow the mod to do their thing with him.

##Unvote, ##Vote: Otter

Awaiting further discussion, vigkill is imminent (yes, I'm aware of the irony of me constantly reiterating 'vigkill is imminent' and then not following through, it's making me cry more than anyone.) Roleclaim out of Otter could be required at this point.

[Sierra]

Last post before I wander for a bit to grab dinner and stare at the idiot box.

Alex: I can't say I view Lady Door's posts as being as muddled as you do. This is possibly because I agree with the basic point she's making, of course. If I'm reading things correctly, she perceived your stand to be one against extensions in general. Her opinion (and mine) is that the specific circumstances of this game warrant making this first day as long as the others regardless of how one feels on extensions in general (as you've make it quite clear that you dislike them and want the group to move more quickly and efficiently. I can't fault you for that, but I am obliged to note that it was Rat holding off on the kill that let you get in your roleclaim). She attempted to point out this distinction, and the response has mostly been to accuse her of "politicizing" extensions in a general sense. I don't believe that was ever her intent, but by this point, it seems the two of you suspect one another for simply not getting the other's point.

[Carthrat]

Waaaaait.

Andy, you're saying that Cid's power, regardless of if it exists, will not prove him, correct?

THEN you turn around and say he should unleash it anyway just to prove he has it?

No! This is wrong! He should unleash it *if there is a good reason to do so* and if it's not going to actually prove anything beyond possession, then we have one result that proves nothing and one result that shows he's lying at the cost of our normal lynch! I don't like that line of thinking at all.

[EvilTom]

[GM]

I will be dealing with OblivionKnight. Since nobody seems to know where he is, I'll make a last attempt to track him down, if that doesn't wotk I shall replace him with someone else*. But this is obviously not lurking, it must be some sort of real-life issue for him.

*I cry.

[/GM]

[QuietRain]

And as a quick note, I would not oppose a vigkill of the Water Mammal even though my vote is on Fluffytails.  Using Ratkin's handy dandy list, I'd support the Water Mammal or Fluffytails.  I don't think the case against the Recurring FF Character is really sitting well with me.  I don't find him that scummy atm.  And I think we should wait on The Evil One's ruling on Sir Emptyness before we consider him an alternate to kill.

And when you say imminent, Ratkin, I think you should specify.  We're losing time on the far side of the flip to get our lynch in order so we need a deadline here.  Seems old habits die hard and if we don't set one, people are going to dither the time away.

EDIT FOR GM POST: Hmm.  For me, that takes him out of the running entirely.  If no one's seen him on chat or the boards in this long, I'd say it's more than lurking as well.

[Sierra]

Excal: What you say about Otter responding to my roleclaim is quite true, but it's also a convenient way to avoid having to comment on someone calling him out on some truly wretched argumentation.

Anyway, Word of Mod came in on the Governor power, in case anyone was still wondering: nope, we don't get any details on the target whose lynch I overturn. As I suspected. Of course, I remain willing to use it if people need it demonstrated. I maintain that this is a better option than lynching me if I remain a suspect, for reasons previously stated (we get a live confirmed townie this way instead of a dead one--assuming you buy the notion of Governor = Town, of course. I admit the role is not a guarantee of being Town, but that's where its alignment usually falls).

Alright, that's about all I've got to say for now. Off for a couple hours.

[Shale]

giving up our least accurate lynch seems a good deal.

No! Bad logic! The accuracy of our lynches is largely determined by how many other lynches have happened before that one. Canceling a lynch just means that the next one is only as accurate as that one would have been, because we don't have the information we would ordinarily get from a flip!

There is nothing magical about the number 1 that makes Day 1 lynches crapshoots. It's the lack of flips and voting records that does it, and nulling a lynch means depriving ourselves of the flip and addition to people's voting records that would normally accompany the end of a day, while still allowing scum a free crack at one of us. Also, see Rat for why Andrew's argument is weird too.

[Drac]

The thing is, Otter, there's *no point* discussing Cid as a daykill candidate. He can't govern that away. This is a topic better saved for after the daykill. We SHOULD put this off till later.

For now i agree with this, as people have said, it is role that is easily proven later in the game. Though Cid naming himself in VtM terms would further allay any of my remaining suspicions (since he has already roleclaimed, so its not as if there is anything more to loose).

I think that alex's claim is true, Seneschal is a very prominent role in the vampire world, and it is nigh impossible for him to bluff a claim of a position of such prominence.

now on to the topic of my suspicions.

At this point in time believe that Smodge's claims regarding VSM do hold some small merit. As Smodge has pointed out earlier he was quite loud at the beginning of the day, but as time has passed he has also moved on into obscurity.  Whether this is due to an attempt of obfuscation on his part, or RL issues, i can't say.

but for now ##VOTE: VSM

No! Bad logic! The accuracy of our lynches is largely determined by how many other lynches have happened before that one. Canceling a lynch just means that the next one is only as accurate as that one would have been, because we don't have the information we would ordinarily get from a flip!

hear hear >_>

[AndrewRogue]

Perhaps I'm working off a mistaken line of assumptions. Please tell me if I really am wrong here.

Cid claims Governor. Four (one of these should not be at all realistic, simply stating it for completeness) options here. He is town with the Governor power. He is anti-town with the Governor power. He is anti-town lying through his teeth. He is town lying through his teeth.

It is a demonstratable power, which means that cases 3 and 4 can be dis/proven.

So, while it doesn't outright clear Cid, it does narrow the potential for what Cid could be. In other words, him demonstrating his power means that instead of there being three potential situations where Cid would be bad for town (anti-town w/ power, anti-town lying, town lying) there is only one case in which he would be bad for town (anti-town w/ power).

In other words, it narrows our investigation.

To put it even more succinctly, I feel it is a good reason: to prove he's not lying to us.

Perhaps I'm exaggerating the importance of this though?

[Carthrat]

Ok, QR.

I have to leave the house in 30 minutes. Before I do, I'll kill someone. No exceptions this time. I'm not going to be back for lots of the day and discussion will have to get in a new direction again one way or the other.

[Excal]

Alright...  Given Tom confirmation, and given I don't know how close Otter is to hammer.

##Unvote: OK, ##Rat: Otter

Alex and Cid are both easily provable, so if they are scum they'll hopefully at least be partially bound by what they've said.  And, given that, the only one remaining who was on Rat's kill list is Otter.  Let's get this done and move on then.

Aside from that, Andy.  Did you read what you typed?  You said that Cid proving his power doesn't actually prove anything worthwhile to us, but that you think we should do it anyways.  Like Rat said, what value is there in our tossing away a kill for something that seems likely to only blind us?

Edit: Re: Shale

Your point doesn't make my assertion bad logic.  It just means that future lynches will be slightly less accurate.  I am willing to accept this trade in exchange for causing the scum more trouble in picking their night kill.  ie. I see a confirmed townie as being of more value to us than a possible kill.  Especially when most of our subjects for discussion are now out of the running and we have, what, 24h left?  We're putting ourselves into the same situation we were decrying before, and we don't have an extension to bail us now.

So, unless Otter's flip is highly interesting.  I'm thinking our best bet is to avoid pressure on choosing someone, and test Cid's claim as a better bet.

Edit to all posts after Shale: I am ignoring you for now so I can actually post.

[Carthrat]

The only thing I'm wary about is that Otter has yet to claim as well. Hopefully he can do that before I leave.

[Ranmilia]

Okay, there goes my crackpot theory about OK being a Nosferatu with an anonyvote and post limit. 

QR... well... yeah, that's just what I said earlier.  I did reread your posts and you bolded all the points I commented on.  They're very minor things that I've already explained.  I've explained that I was *not* on the block when I went to sleep, contrary to what you keep claiming, and why I didn't roleclaim then.  I've explained the conflict between deadlines and discussion.  I've been accused of making hyperbolic cases in the earlygame of just about every single game I've played in, nothing about this situation feels out of the ordinary from my perspective.  We skipped over the traditional phase where there's no legit discussion at all and I get accused of lurking, but other than that the checklist of Things Alex Does People Jump On is being fulfilled.  If your only argument against me is that it "just doesn't seem like how I usually play," well... I don't get it. 

Again, LOSING TOWNKILL BAD!  NOT WORTH PROVING CLAIM!  BAD BAD!