VtM:M - Vampire the Masquerade Mafia

[Yakumo]

How many times are you going to make me repeat myself?  I DID comment on the arguements.  NONE of them make me look at the participants any differently than I did before at this point.  They will still be useful when we get more info, but they're useless to me right now.  There is a difference between looking a case over and not picking a side and looking at a case and deciding both sides are misguided.

[Excal]

There's also not much point to get overly concerned at this point Yakko.  You're not on the list at the moment, Drac is.  I suspect you'll be fine regardless of how things play out today, and you'll have your chance to make your comments when it's less people sniping at each other.

[Ranmilia]

Ciato - Andrew was up-ins with the "let's waste a lynch to prove Governor" thing, that's why he, Excal and Cid are my top choices.  Drac's there for being the most lurkish/least informative; he's had some chances to post now and still hasn't said much anything that I'd consider substantial. 

Between the three Gov Lovers, Andrew's the one I simultaneously have the least scum reads on and the least reads on period.  Cid has all the stuff that got the train on him to begin with, which is still valid, and Excal's been dropping some odd posts around, but Andrew... I've been trying to keep track of people's stances and major posts and Andrew seems like he hasn't done much of note before he chimed in on the gov stuff.

Prior to that he:
- was on the train on me for a short time but also hopped off it early
- was kind of alarmist/suspicious of Rat
- went after Otter.

Overall a pretty slim record.  Lurkscum-style?  Maybe.

Excal:  I approve of VSM jumping on that twist of words.  He's a little overparanoid, to be sure (see his opinion of Rat), but overall I view his style as quite pro-town.  Looking around and being paranoid is what town should be doing.  Also, knowing that overparanoia is VSM's natural playstyle as town, I have a hard time believing that he could fake it so well as scum.  This is a playstyle argument and possibly faulty, but... yeah, there's nothing about it I can call scummy except paranoia about Rat.  Which Andrew did as well, and out of the two of them I'd have to say Andrew looks much scummier for it when taken in combination with their other actions.   

To be honest, the post of yours VSM called into question stood out to me, too, and I almost went after it myself, but didn't because it was clearly meant as a knock on me and any response I'd make to it would look like OMGUS.

The anonyvote is also biasing me in favor of VSM.  He denied that it was his, it followed him anyway.  This means that either it's his and he doesn't know about it, it's his and he's lying about not knowing it, or someone else is applying it to make it look like it's his.  In the first and third cases I think he's most likely town.  I can't see a reason scum-doublevoting-VSM would claim that he didn't know about his doublevote when it's there plain for all to see, but I can easily see it being a hidden part of a role and I think roles with hidden abilities generally belong to townies.  This is all very weak, but I see it as a small point in his favor. 

---

It looks like Excal's the one out of my preferred lynches most likely to get majority in the time we have left, so yeah, I'm going to move to him.

##Unvote: El Cid
##Vote: Excal

[Lady Door]

Hm... Alex, you've just put into words some of the weirdness I've been seeing with Andrew. That makes me think more about him. Unfortunately, I don't see the point in trying to get at him today because we don't have that much time before the hammer and there are other, more viable candidates. So!

Excal has the most votes (-2 to hammer, in fact), vsm has my current vote, and Drac has the lurker-vote.

Going to spend the next bit of time reviewing those cases. Post (yet again) in a few!

[Ranmilia]

In the interests of time, Excal, if you do have a town role to claim, you should probably do so now. 

I'd like to make another post before the day ends with some general thoughts, just in case I don't live to see tomorrow, so don't anyone go stealth hammering. 

[Luther Lansfeld]

Hmm, I guess I must have been mistaken on seeing something there, but grah. I don't find anything horribly scummy in anyone really. I don't like VSM's attitude at all, but at this point I think Alex is probably right about the anon vote? I'm willing to think he's telling the truth for now due to that, even though objectively I think he looks worse than anyone else.

...wait, what am I saying? I generally don't like replacing idle role pondering with good ol' fashioned scum-hunting, and his obsessive dwelling over one or two subjects while seeing to pass through all the rest.  approve of aggressive play, but I don't approve at all of focus.

El-Cid feels pretty iffy to me but I understand his willingness to prove himself to be innocent since he is in the position. I really dislike that Alex has chosen to polarize the Governor thing based on who likes it or doesn't, which is the same thing he accused LD of doing earlier! Tthis rings massive bells in me but for Princely reasons I won't be laying my vote there.

Logic is contradicting in this regard. It is telling me to vote for VSM and to not do so.

Also, Jesus, people, Yakko gets thrown in a new situation and you get all over his ass. I mean, yes, his predecessor didn't post, but it was because he didnt actually even exist on the forums, so I don't see why everyone's bitching at him about it. <_<

[Excal]

I was hoping to avoid this, but it seems there's no choice.

I am the Sheriff, of Clan Tremere.  With my powers of Auspex I am able to tell Kindred from Kine.  As such, no ghoul can hide from my sight.  In game terms, I am a Cop.

[Sierra]

I have to second Yakko's repeated statement that going after lurkers is the best option right now. Time and again I see games starting out with the most vocal townies killing each other day one and the people who comment blandly on the edges of the discussion (or not at all) getting ignored. It is a convenient stance to take to avoid having to actually commit to an opinion on anyone, but since I agree with his basic point of view, I'm not holding that against him right now.

On the other hand, Excal (while not being a lurker in terms of postcount) struck me as someone hanging about on the fringes without making strong cases of his own even before pressure started building around him. Not gonna toss a vote at him since he's -2 to hammer and hasn't claimed yet. Going back to reread his posts right now.

EDIT: Ninja'd by an Excal claim. Blah, this changes things.

Do we want to back off on the day one copclaim (I'm already getting bad Touhou flashbacks) and focus on a lurker here after all? Drac and smodge seem likely candidates (and I would've tossed Ciato into this group too, prior to her recent post).

[Lady Door]

Also, Jesus, people, Yakko gets thrown in a new situation and you get all over his ass. I mean, yes, his predecessor didn't post, but it was because he didnt actually even exist on the forums, so I don't see why everyone's bitching at him about it. <_<

Actually, I was on him for being so hard on Drac who faced a pretty similar situation. That's all.

Back to Excal:

I was beginning to feel a little weird about his posts as I was reading over them, but I couldn't really pinpoint anything. Then I got distracted by these two:

Personally, I'm for letting Cid use his power on Day 1.  Yes, it does give up a lynch, but I've always found a confirmed townie to be worth more than a potential chance at lynching scum.  It means that the scum are hemmed in more, and they have more targets they need to aim at.  And why does the Cid debate matter?  Because it means that if our lynch doesn't matter, then we can safely pick a lurker for our vigkill and then shut the day down in proper order.

and

Cid, the reason he didn't retract them or refute you is because, if you test your powers tonight, then the whole issue becomes moot.  You either stop the lynch, or you do not.  If you do, then you're almost certainly town, therefore the arguments against you are likely false regardless of their validity without that overwhelming proof against them.  If you cannot do what you were claiming you can do, then you have lied.  Which means that you are almost certainly scum, even if you looked like a saint before that claim.

It seems pretty obvious to ME that Excal advocated setting the Gov power on a lurker, unlike what vsm said turned his vote to Excal:

The thing that really gets me, though, is, looking back on the posts after the Governor was revealed? I was mistaken. The vote to kill lurkers was totally separate from the push to overturn lynches on lurkers. So here you are, defending your position that.... well, actually you didn't really have before.

That just makes vsm look worse to me. And lynching Excal with a cop-claim on Day 1 seems wrong to me. I recall hearing about the Touhou mess, but since there are other vaguely viable candidates and not that much to go against Excal, I strongly urge focusing on someone else. Perhaps the "lurkers," though I'm uncomfortable with the definition.

... back to reading, now to decide on lurkers.

[Ranmilia]

Well okay then.

Wait, that's not okay at all.  That's about the least sensible claim you could make.

If you're the cop you could just investigate Cid, using up an investigation to gain a cop-result rather than a lynch to gain confirmation of a gov power existing.  So why on earth would you press for using Cid's power? 



(And what kind of idiot prince lets a Tremere be Sheriff?  Wait, I'm the Prince now.)

Still, on the off chance I'm wrong,

##Unvote: Excal
##Vote: Drac  (lurking, bad times, agreed, etc)

But for the record I don't trust this claim.

[Smodge13]

Drac and smodge seem likely candidates (and I would've tossed Ciato into this group too, prior to her recent post).

2 Big posts every 24 hours, thats all i can do with work, i'm sure i mentioned it here but if not read WoW mafia, check my posting times they all match up to pretty much the same time).

Honestly VSM still feels the worst to me, the lack of commitements is what gets me most, but seeing as the deadline is drawing close and we do need to find majority, a fair few people have specifically stated they don't think VSM is acting different, i find it weird Alex hasn't pounced on something like this i would suspect Alex in turn, but well >.> he's the prince.

Excals cop claim is interesting but i guess it can't be avoided.

In the interest of the town however i don't see us convincing enough of VSM's guilt so reverting the LaL.

##Unvote:VSM
##Vote: Drac

[Lady Door]

Mmmm... adding me would make Drac -2 to lynch, and would also put all the currently active players on his back except Ciato and El Cideon. I'm still not sure about lynching him for lurking. What I'd REALLY like is for him to show up and talk some more. Less than 4 hours until deadline, so it seems risky to wait long on this, but I'll give him at least a little while before I jump on it. His previous posting times have been weird, but it looks like there's a chance he'll show up soonish.

[Sierra]

I have to admit, Smodge, that I've seen you post in pretty much the same pattern in every game, so I suppose it isn't indicative of anything by itself.

##Unvote: Smodge

Though...grah. I can say that of a lot of people this game, really. I just scrolled back through Ciato and Corwin's posts because I could not recall which cases they'd been associated with and...almost nothing seems out of the ordinary for them. There was this from Corwin, a bit before the daykill:

On whom would provide the most information upon a flip: I actually agree with Alex's argument there, and the dayvig shouldn't be wasted on a lurker. That can be done with an end-of-day lynch. So far, however, the strongest connection I see is the Alex/Otter alliance. It is quite possible they would try to bruteforce the town into following their tune, especially given Touhou and the 'me too' sheep-like mentality that went where Alex directed it for a few days. They have the mafia skill for it, if nothing else, and NKs would whittle away any strong opposition in this case. Note, this isn't a 'one of them must be scum, let's lynch both!' argument, but one that goes 'if one of them is scum, the other is likely to be one too in this case, I feel; if one is revealed as town, it says nothing about the other.' Who else could flip that would tell us anything? If it's Cid, who flips scum, then... Cid and Alex could be engaging in bussing/a strange gambit to find a new target given that they ended up in an unfavorable condition. Or Alex could honestly be town going after Cid. Or Cid could be town and we get even less. I picked Cid for the example, here, since aside from Alex and Otter he seems the one most involved with other people.

The speculation here doesn't sit right with me. Trying to link the most talkative individuals as a scum collective controlling conversation is...well, that scenario is not something I can see happening, realistically. Scum do not benefit from collaborating that obviously, as he should know--we were both scum in Touhou and Alex stressed that point early on. Rereading things, that weird initial Otter vote (the "Why is Otter here this earl?" vote) does look off as well, and he stuck with it longer than he needed to if it was a jokevote.

Something to consider for the future, but...beyond these remarks I've been getting a Town read from him. We are getting near the deadline here and I fully endorse going after a lurker on principle, as I've already stated, so...

##Vote: Drac

This puts him pretty damned close to hammer, yes, which I said I was hesitant to do with Excal...but we're running out of time to make a decision and I think Drac's had long enough to get active and involved and he hasn't really done this. My only worry is that he won't have time to respond to this. It's morning in Australia right now, I believe?

[EvilTom]

3.5 hours left.

[EvilTom]

El Cideon (0): Carthrat, IHateThisCPU, Sir Alex, Otter, Sir Alex
Excal (4): Shale, Sir Alex, Veryslightlymad, Anonymous, Corwin, QuietRain, Sir Alex
Smodge13 (0): QuietRain, Corwin, El Cideon
QuietRain (0): Lady Door
Ciato (0): El Cideon
VerySlightlyMad (1): Otter, Carthrat, Smodge13, Drac, Lady Door
AndrewRogue (0): Excal, QuietRain
Otter (5): Corwin, El Cideon, Ciato, Sir Alex, AndrewRogue, Carthrat
Corwin (0): Sir Alex, Excal
Sir Alex (0): VerySlightlyMad, Anonymous, Lady Door, Excal, AndrewRogue, QuietRain, Corwin
Yakumo (0): Carthrat, Carthrat, AndrewRogue, QuietRain, Otter, Excal
Drac (5): Smodge13, QuietRain, Corwin, Otter, Yakumo, Excal, Sir Alex, Smodge13, El Cideon
Lady Door (0): Carthrat


A number of 7 is now required for majority.


Drac is at -2 to hammer.

[EvilTom]

On that note, feel free to begin submitting Night Phase Actions.

We're close to dawn...

[Yakumo]

Shouldn't that be day phase, then? <_< >_>

[EvilTom]

Day Phase = nighttime (when Vampires come out)
Night Phase = daytime (when Vampires sleep and the ghouls come out)

I did it that way so as not to confuse people who aren't familiar with... Vampires. And yes, it's still confusing.
It's almost day, but that's Night Phase for mafia.

>.>"

[Shale]

Oooookay, cop claim. Not voting Excal today. I trust the claim a bit more than Alex, because I can see him wanting to be able to defend Cid based on proven Governor-ness instead of having to post "hey I'm a cop and I investigated him" to justify it. Will still keep a close eye on his results, natch.

The fact that, per LD's posts, he did do what VSM said, and they both seem to have spontaneously forgotten it, is very odd. I...uh....I'm trying to see how "I lied and you didn't call me on it, so you look scummy" would be a scum strategy and it's not clicking. Especially when, in the words of a great man, he thought he was wrong, but he was mistaken.

If we're going to go for LAL - and I won't argue - Drac is the solid choice there.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Corwin! Damn, I really need to go back and look at him. Not really a lot of time to do anything regardless; I hate this lynch, I think there are better suspects than lurkers, but if we want a lynch by deadline, I'll take it. I won't be around too much longer for awhile, but I'm willing to try to help a lynch.

[QuietRain]

Glad the flipping forum came back up.  Well...that...hmm.  Not feeling the claim all that much, but willing to give him the chance.

##Unvote Arthur's Sword (btw, what other name could you have?  *grin*)

And...

##Vote Zammis.  Sorry, but LAL wins in the end for a good Day 1 vote.

For clarity, I confused my poor self.  See below:

Rat, there's a reason that I haven't voted for VSM yet.  Despite all of his talking, he's happily sticking his foot in his maw over an argument of how to play correctly.  

Now, while saying ‘He’s the Faceless Wonder and he always does this’ is never a good thing (free passes are bad), saying he’s messing up enough all on his own that I don’t think I need to bother seems…not goodness.

Obviously, that was supposed to be NuckinFutz as stated in Arthur's Sword's own post and NOT poor Faceless Wonder.

Will obviously read back over Arthur's Sword's stuff when the day dawns and see if it reads differently with Cop claim and Night 2 actions coloring things.

[Lady Door]

Alright. 2ish hours to deadline, I'm all for LAL at this point.

Not going to hammer, though (as the next vote will).

Alex? Were you going to make that post laying out your general thoughts? Now'd be a decent time to do it.

[Ranmilia]

Truncated version of my notes on everyone at this instant. 

1. Smodge13 - Very likely town w/assumptions about setup

2. QuietRain - Very likely town w/assumptions about setup

3. Excal - Very likely scum (or terrible cop)

6. IHateThisCPU/Drac - Completely out of it (probably about to get lynched)

7. El Cideon - 50/50

8. Lady Door - Playing poorly, easily confused, watch her closely esp. her interactions with others (watch who leads her)

9. VSM - 95% town, based on setup & playstyle

10. Corwin - ?? Poss scum

11. Yakumo - No read

13. AndrewRogue - ?? Poss scum

14. Ciato - ?? Poss scum

15. Shale - ?? Poss scum

[EvilTom]

1.5 hours remain, votecount is at -1 Drac.

[Veryslightlymad]

Logically, I should hammer. I am going to do so now.

If the final vote count includes anonymous, we know for sure I have a double-vote. (Again. O_o). If it doesn't. We know I'm being tailed.

##Unvote: Excal

Although, keep in mind I'm still extremely suspicious of Excal. With about an hour and a half left, it's in our best interest to lynch, and it's looking like that's Drac. Me being Hammer will clear this anonymous junk up and supply town with more information.

##Vote: Drac