Within a Deep Mafia Forest - Game Topic (GAME OVER)

[AndrewRogue]

Whether or not you do it regularly doesn't change the fact that it is, at the very best, bad play, at the worst, scummy behavior.

I'm going to say this one more time to try and emphasize it: Roleclaims provide information. At the very worst, we gain nothing from them, because they are completely self-stated and can just ignore them if nothing pans out. At the best, scum makes a mistake or some town aligned power role manages to contradict something in their claim, and we nail scum.

It is stupid to not claim in LYLO. It is stupid to not allow claims before lynching. It is doubly stupid to not allow a roleclaim before voting in LYLO (of course, you had to go and force my hand...). There ARE powers out there that can give us more information, as well. Tracker. Watcher. Combined with other power roles, this CAN make the game come together.

LYnch or LOse. LYLO. We lose the game if we lynch wrong. We have everything to gain and nothing to lose by allowing claims. In the very worst case scenario, we are right back at square one.

for all that Andrew seems to think if we don't give everyone the chance to tell scum what we are we must be scum.

Strawman. Are you even reading my arguments? Not allowing claims is stupid. It is bad play. It is scummy play. It sucks. You are suppressing information that, at worse, can just be ignored and, at best, can help make a case.

You claim this is defending town resources from scum. The problem is that these resources can't help us if we lose right here. You are risking that, if we make it through this day, any useful resources we have are killed before they give us information.

Anything > 0.

[Yakumo]

I do not agree with any of that at all, and I've already told you why.  Worst case scenario, we have a power role that could still tell us something, like a watcher, that doesn't have anything to give us yet but now we're forcing them to tell us that they exist with no info, and now the scum know who needs to go to keep us from getting the information we need.  Best case scenario a scum makes a stupid mistake like claiming something that isn't on the list or a power that someone else has.  I don't feel like counting on the scum being stupid enough not to read the list of possible powers, and even if they pick a power someone else has, the best case for us is that we guess right as to which one is lying and then the scum know who the other is, and whether it's important to stop that person from acting or not.  In the most likely scenario, they pick things that nobody else has and that can't be disproven, or they claim Vanilla.  In which case, we have town claims out there that the scum didn't have before, and the townies have a bunch of info that they can't trust.  Who does that help?  Hint: not the people that can't trust it.

Now, I'm not saying if there's someone out there with info that they shouldn't bring it out.  You'll notice that's the common exception in my last post: when I had information, like cop results, I gave it out.  However, I believe that if that information were available, someone would have given it to us by now.  It's stupid to go two and a half days in LYLO while withholding information that gives us a successful lynch, or even cuts down on the odds of a bad one.  Since I haven't seen it after all this time, I assume it does not exist.

You say any information is better than no information, I say no information is better than false information, which is what we get when the scum roleclaim.  Right now we have one person whose claim is a power that is proven to exist and has no counterclaim, and the other six people have no way to prove whether or not they're lying about their claims.  Since there's no way to prove them, there's no way to trust them, and they shouldn't be used in determining if a given person is town or scum, so why put them out there at all?

[Corwin]

It is extremely annoying to keep on checking back for page 1 and Alex's modposts to make sure we have seven people remaining, because for the life of me I can only remember three posting lately. Yes, yes, mentee/no time to post/whatever. How about, at the very least, saying who is your prime suspect? You know who you guys are. Since it's lylo, just don't use the voting pattern to avoid hilarious hijinks. Just say it clearly enough without Alex counting it.

[Dhyerwolf]

I've previously said that Andrew and Otter are about equal suspects to me, although I find Andrew's roleclaim push horribly scummy. He says at the very worst, we gain nothing. At the very worst, we smoke out a townie power that can help us later. Watcher types were the ones I was specifically thinking of before (Although a super lucky doctor, vig, inventor, or even another remaining cop could all prove useful). Yes, claiming is good if you have additional information that can trap scum that town would otherwise miss, but otherwise claiming for no reason is pointless. Most people seem to agree that we have two major candidates for lynching. A scum would have to majorly mess up to have their claim jump them from middle of the pack suspicion to the head. This push feels like a last second attempt to wring town for info. Either lynch choice sits very well with me, but I'd just prefer to have things confirmed up with everyone before going ahead.

[OblivionKnight]

Hate route 28.  Fucking PenDot.  

I see both sides of the argument, as I've stated before.  I still feel that any information is better than none.  A cop, watcher, doc does no good if we fuck up LYLO.  If they get lynched?  Dead.  If we lynch the wrong person and someone dies at night in this case?  Dead.  Some information is still better than none.  I do agree that yes, we aren't likely to gain a huge amount of information, but we are getting down to the wire and help would be appreciated.

Granted, the fact that no one has come forth with anything is leading me to believe that there might not be any more power roles left (outside of Andy's claimed cop, which we don't know the sanity of, Corwin's one-shot vig he claimed, and myself).  So this might very well be useless.  Or people aren't in the mood to claim, which is also what I'm getting from the air.  I really don't think it's fishing at this point - when we're at the point where death awaits us with one wrong move, role fishing I really don't think exists.  

My list of lovely kittens, based on how I think of them so far and where my thoughts lie on their alignments based on everything I've seen so far, alphabetized, because I am that awesome:

Neutral:
Dhyer - He has been...fairly less present early on.  More present now, but still about as present as me (though a bit more).  He's fairly consistent no matter what side he's on from what I've known, and his arguments are generally pretty strong and convincing.  He's also making headway in arguments and putting forth strong opinions.  Yet I'm still having issues with remembering things he's really come up with on his own.
Yakumo - I...don't know if it's just the endgame coming down hard and he's trying to push things up, but he feels far more aggressive and present now, compared to earlier.  Is it because there are fewer people?  Eh...I don't know.  The argument and pushing with him vs. Andy/Otter/Corwin has been fairly heavy so far, which I think is actually good (he's putting an opinion out there, strong).  His vote on Otter -"...if Otter's playing this way as a townie, I want this game to be over anyway so I don't have to be on the same side as him anymore, his play and attitude this game is frankly making me sick." - is a tad...awkward, and doesn't seem to fit in with his usual demeanor in-game.  Can't say I openly think he's scum, but...it just isn't sitting right with me.
Otter - I...was thinking he was scum, but I find myself comparing him to Yakko a lot.  This is not how I've seen him play scum (which, to be fair, was one game I moderated).  He's aggressive and a bit rude, but he has apologized, and he makes good points with it.  He's also trying to play for town, and all of his wording has been townish.  However...he began on my radar for scummy, but...nothing in the majority of his posting has struck me as scummy, beyond some slips...like Yakko.  So yeah, Yakko and Otter I'm having trouble sifting through at the moment.

Scum:
Nitori - I...he's like Dhyer in that he's not been too original or posting much until now.  He's also not really put out an opinion on the roleclaiming ("I want to side with the roleclaim crew...my final opinion will be based on how the day plays out"), which is...that's kind of bothersome.  It's been a major topic of discussion, and saying you're waiting for the day to play out makes me think that you're just waiting to nuke someone with a vote to kill them or push your own agenda.  It sounds like a scum thing to me.  Combined with not remembering ANYTHING you've said all game...I'm a bit more than a little tiny bit suspicious.

Town:
Corwin - His claim makes sense with everything he's stated and done so far, and with how things have worked out.  He's been very into LYLO, trying to get people up and talking and making discussion happen.
OK - I know my alignment.  I haven't posted a huge amount, but it's had substance in it.    

Undefined:
Andrew - I...just don't know.  I didn't think much of it until things hit day 2, then everything got reversed with Ciato's death.  However, he's been putting in effort with everything, so I...can't really get a fix on him.  At the moment, I don't think he's bad, but I was suspicious of him earlier.  So I'm very conflicted with him.  But he's putting the effort into making LYLO work out for the town, so...I don't know.

2 votes on Yakko, 1 on Otter.  I'm not sure how to read those at the moment, and am reserving mine for a bit.  I need to look back more carefully, and the current votes must have SOME tell in them...or scum would be able to hammer right away, unless there's a scum at bay, or they're too split up to concentrated.  

[Yakumo]

Three posts in seven hours, none in six, with three votes on the table in LYLO.  What the hell is going on here?  Why is there no discussion going on at all?  Even if you don't want to use your vote until everyone else agrees or something, why isn't everyone here discussing this?  Is everyone going to lie down and just give up?

[Otter]

Corwin wants fullclaim?  Okay, fullclaim is go.  Scum don't need to gather any additional information about us to win if we get our lynch wrong anymore, this is LYLO, it'll just be over, so the more information that's available to everybody, the better.

Time to paraphrase so as not to break the rules.  I am the Glass Ball.  Despite my fragility, I was elected Governor by my fellow ball materials, who selected me as a result of my inherent physical honesty -- a glass ball has nothing to hide.  I may exercise my power in an unlimited fashion; on any day, I may choose to stop the lynch of one of my fellow players once the voting has ended, and I can do this as many times as I want.  To prevent this from stalling the game overtly, I was allowed to submit my decision ahead of time, which was always to leave my power unused.

Why didn't I use it?  Because there was no reason to -- I thought Ciato was scum, and smodge looked bad to me, although my day 1 vote was on Ciato because I thought she looked even worse.  Why didn't I claim on previous days?  No reason to; this power is complete trash by design and can't even prove me innocent at the cost of our lynch.  Why not?  Check the list of possible roles; scum could have a Lynch Preventer.  Even paying the price of a lynch wouldn't have confirmed me, so there was no point.  Heck, if I use it today, I doom us all completely; if we don't lynch anyone, that's an instant loss, since we'll be reduced to 6 players tomorrow with 3 scum among us.

For my part, very strong suspicion has metamorphosed into complete certainty that Yakumo's scum, for one simple reason: the game isn't over.  If I had been wrong about him, his townie self would have gotten swiftly scumhammered by now; that we're still talking means I got it right, and if nothing else I'm happy about that fact.  It would have been pretty embarrassing to watch him get scumhammered and be responsible for that.

[Yakumo]

That last blurb can easily be turned right back on you, you know.  If you and Andrew are scum, or just one of you or him are but Nitori is too since he hasn't been around for the scumhammer, or a combination of the people that haven't all been here at the same time are scum, then we sit here like this.  Why no mention of those facts, Otter?  All of a sudden the only -possible- explanation is me as scum?  Not so.  Yet you just state it as if it is an incontrovertible fact.  Care to explain?

[Nitori]

I hate this day and this week.

One of the most telling things here is that the game has not ended. This means, obviously, that either the people voting are scum or that the parties being voted for are scum. If neither were the case, by any logical means the game should have ended. So looking at the logical breakdown of the Yakko-Otter ladder:

Both being town is a strong impossibility since the game would have ended.
Taking Otter's scenario, if Yakko is scum and Otter is town, then the game can't end since there is not enough votes for a scumhammer.
If the reverse is true, then the scum have little reason to bus Otter at this point, and since scum Otter is the first vote on Yakko in this scenario, scum cannot really bus. Note that this kind of implicate scum Andy as well as that would put one townie vote on a townie in LYLO, allowing a scumhammer.
Both being scum...it's possible, but it feels REALLY weird for them to do something aggressive like this...unless they were perhaps trying to attract a townie vote.

Otter has a claim now, but it seems really paperthin since the same role does indeed show up on both sides. Something about being able to send in the decision ahead of time seems really odd, too, although I haven't seen a lot of Governor roles. I think I'm still slightly leaning Otter in this whole scenario, although Yakko is obviously also very suspicious due to this as well, and replaces OK as my #3. There's been so little inflow lately, though, that I would like to hear more commentary on this specific situation.

[Otter]

Something about being able to send in the decision ahead of time seems really odd, too

I'm not really sure what you find objectionable about my being able to select ahead of time.  Roles with night powers are traditionally encouraged to submit (sometimes conditional) night actions ahead of time to keep the game rolling, and although mine isn't a night power (technically it comes into play during the Twilight phase, between the end of voting and the posting of the result), the same applies; if I hadn't, we'd have all been stuck indefinitely between the hammer and the reveal until I'd been reached to decide.  It was as simple as dropping a PM that said something like "Hey, if this person gets the lynch today, I'm not going to stop it."  Alex is good at keeping the game moving (notice the quick night periods) and it's precisely because he encourages this kind of courteous play.

[Ranmilia]

Votecount!  With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, town is in LYLO.

Otter (1): Yakumo
Yakumo (2): Otter, Andrew

72 hours have passed on day 3.  There is no time limit in LYLO.  but maybe there should be?

[Dhyerwolf]

And we have a claim from Otter? And not is only is it a power that we can’t really prove, it’s one that any attempt to prove will result in town losing. Since we can’t prove anything, this really tells us nothing. However, I’m pretty firm on Otter, and his logic on why Yakumo being scum because the game isn’t over is horrid, as Yakumo pointed out.

I believe Andrew and Otter are very, very likely scum at this point. My gut leans towards OK being the third. OK and Nitori both are the more lurking members of the group, but OK did something that was more far unsettling to me this round than Nitori has done. On the other hand, I also feel like Nitori is less firm in some of his thoughts that he puts forth in postings and has more of an ability to blend into the background, but that’s also not horribly new.

I feel a lot better about Yakumo now. While I had some questions about the logic he used against Otter in Day 1, his stances today read very pro-town (And I still maintain that full roleclaims for everyone really is a bad idea!), and Otter and Andrew ganging up on him feels like scum trying to bait a townie into voting for their most vocal opponent. On Yakumo jumping off with the first vote, he went after something that I think really has been highly implicated by a sane cop. Yes, we have no guarantees that LadyDoor investigated him Night 1, but it seems extremely likely. For those who don’t find Otter completely suspicious, who do you think LD did investigate night 1? While I would have preferred waiting until there was an agreeance to who lynch today before votes were thrown down, Yakumo’s vote looks pretty solid to me.

[Corwin]

Well, then. 'Maybe there should be' is a pretty strong hint, and I'd still like to go with Andrew for reasons stated ad nauseum. Here goes, then.

##Vote: Andrew

[Ranmilia]

I'm not going to institute a deadline this late.  Maybe for the next day, if there is one.  Input is appreciated.  I don't want to rush anyone, but the rate of posting is pretty crazily slow here, has been all game really but especially for the current situation.  If there are mentors left in the game I encourage them to help their mentees come to decisions. 

[Yakumo]

Alright.  At this point, everyone has had the chance to weigh in on the votes on Otter and myself, and the game still isn't over.  This basically means one of four things.

I'm scum, therefore there's only two other scum to hit Otter and the scum need another person to vote for him.

Otter and Andrew are both scum, therefore there's only one other scum to hit me and the scum need another person to vote for me.

One of Otter and Andrew are scum, but the other two scum haven't been around at the same time and are being careful about dropping the hammer.

Both Otter and I are scum and this is a bussing strategy.

Of these four, I find the third hardest to believe given that it's been a day and a half since the votes, and given that I trust Corwin at this point, pretty much any other pair of players should have been able to get together at the same time, barring perhaps OK with his work schedule, which I'm not totally sure of.

The fourth is a possibility that I really don't have much defense for: the only thing I can say is that if we're trying to bus each other we started really early.  I throw it out there for completeness' sake and to spur discussion.

One and two seem to be the most likely to me.  Well, obviously I know about one for sure, but if I were looking at this from a third standpoint, those two would be the ones I would be most seriously considering at this point.  If this is a bussing strategy, then at least we can't get this day wrong if we work on this issue and we can figure that out later. 

This is the reason that I'm alright with Corwin voting for Andrew even in this situation, as I find it very difficult to believe that if one of those two is scum, the other isn't.  I don't really care whether we lynch Andrew or Otter today, they look like a matched pair in my eyes.  If the vote goes to Andrew and it's one short when I check later, I'll switch.  Putting this out there since people have been(justifiably I guess, but several people -had- mentioned Otter as their number one suspect before I voted, and nobody had been talking for six hours at that point, despite that being a time when several of us are active) upset with me for voting before the group had come to a concensus.  Well, I'm telling you now, if the possibility exists to lynch either of those two, I'll be willing to vote for it when I see it.

[Otter]

I don't really care whether we lynch Andrew or Otter today, they look like a matched pair in my eyes.

More of the "matched pair" business?  It looks an awful lot like you plan to bus Andrew and then use his flip as justification to lynch me next.  How do I know Andrew's scum, now?  Pretty simply -- I still see Corwin as more or less completely confirmed, and he voted for Andrew without the game ending.  That vote should have been met with instant-lose scumhammer, if Andy were innocent.  From where I'm standing, we've now isolated two of the scum, Yakumo and Andrew.

With that new information in mind, I've gone back over Yakumo's and Andrew's vote histories in an attempt to work something out about their partner, but there's little that's solid enough to go on.  In fact, it's Yakumo's failure to mention certain people (like Nitori) in any detail at all, through the whole game, that gives me pause.  As for why Yakumo's so willing to bus Andrew, well, the scum can afford it.  Yakumo struck first (obviously in an attempt to get this game over with) by voting for me, but that hasn't lured a townie onto me yet to finish me off.  So, by bussing Andrew while trying to build up some non-existent connection between myself and Andy, Yakumo's trying to make himself look good enough tomorrow for the town to follow his lead once more.  And hey, in this conversation-dry environment where the game is dragging and town morale is sinking daily, he's pretty likely to get his way so long as he keeps asserting the same things over and over.

Who's the third scum?  Not confirmed yet for me like the other two are, but Nitori and Dhyer seem decently likely; Nitori in particular hasn't said anything of late other than some quick summary and "I hate today," and the way he just wasn't mentioned throughout by Yakumo in particular makes me think he was ignoring him for a reason.

[Yakumo]

So, because a vote wasn't met with instant scumhammer, this is an automatic confirmation that a person is scum despite the fact that only one person so far besides yourself has been around visibly enough to comment on that vote?  I agree that he's scum, yes, but your reasoning here is horribly flawed.  If OK is scum, he almost certainly hasn't been here to see that vote.  Same thing with Nitori.  Yet you expect instant scumhammer the second a vote has been placed on a townie?  Uh, yeah, no.  Your logic continues to be, well, about as logical as Meeple, and you are still ignoring two questions from me, why you said I should have let a day run to No-Lynch and why you ignored every possible reason for the game not being over that didn't involve me being scum, including at the point you made those comments the one where there was a possibilty that neither of us were.

[OblivionKnight]

I believe Andrew and Otter are very, very likely scum at this point. My gut leans towards OK being the third. OK and Nitori both are the more lurking members of the group, but OK did something that was more far unsettling to me this round than Nitori has done. On the other hand, I also feel like Nitori is less firm in some of his thoughts that he puts forth in postings and has more of an ability to blend into the background, but that’s also not horribly new.

Ok, I find this odd.  Throughout the whole game, you've been fairly critical of my lurking, and yet brushing off Nitori?  Saying it's, "his usual style"?  Usual style is nothing - he's not given hard opinions on things, as you stated, and yet you aren't after him on it, when it's something you've stressed all game?  Weren't you also against taking "usual style" as a "get-out-of-jail-free-card"?  While I think I know what I did to "unsettle" you...how is that worse than Nitori (and incidentally, you earlier said I"wasn't as bad off" as others earlier...why the change so suddenly)?  He has given NO HARD OPINIONS IN LYLO.  HE HAS BASICALLY SUMMARIZED THINGS AND NOT COME UP WITH ANY NEW MATERIAL AND BEEN EXTREMELY FLUFFEGUTTERED.  HE HAS STATED THAT HE WILL MAKE HIS FINAL VOTE BASED ON HOW THE DAY PLAYS OUT. 

Lurking is not posting a post with thoughts each day - lurking is making posts with no substance or little thought to them just to make it look like you're active.  Look at the content of our posts, and tell me that there is more to him than me.  Based on what you've said in the past, I'd think you'd say that it's more unsettling when you have so little on the table that's your own thoughts and opinions and good material.  This is really contradictory, and a bit unsettling. 

[Dhyerwolf]

When I said you weren't as said off as others, I meant compared to Andrew. That came right after talking about how I found the role claims to be really suspicious, and I said you weren't as bad off as Andrew.

Today, Nitori at least said who his top suspect was, but yes, it's very hard to pin him down on more. Do I like his style of play? No. But because it's typical, I can't look at his lurking and say it's something he adopted this game. Waiting to see how the day plays out...aren't we doing that too? Not rushing off and voting because we don't want to make a mistake. And overall, the lurking really isn't the main to me at the moment. What is a big deal is the flip on your stance, followed by the claim revelation. What lurking does mean is that I have very little read on Nitori one way or the other while I have more active suspicion on you.

##Vote: AndrewRogue. I'd prefer my vote go to the one I'm more suspicious of because of the actions he's taken rather than by possible cop interpretation and the "wait and try and get everyone lined up strategy isn't working."

[Otter]

"The second," Yakumo?  Cor placed the vote six hours before my post.  I think that's a decent stretch of time, and hey, the point's moot -- if I'm wrong and Andrew's innocent, the scumhammer will come as soon as the scum get here.  I'll be sure about Andy as soon as that -doesn't- happen.  I'm -already- sure about you because it hasn't happened for quite some time.  The scum really have no reason to prolong this unnecessarily.

[Corwin]

Well, guys. Seems like we'll see if Andrew was scum and we survive to the next day, or the game ends here. I'm convinced he looks the scummiest, or I wouldn't have voted for him.

I think there are too many permutations to consider, from a scum sacrifice strategy to some of the Andrew/Otter/Yakumo group being scum, to the improbable 'scum is just lurking and wants to win the game lamely' option. Let's hope for the best, and that we've picked the scummiest person to us, and that our lynch (with Andrew's flip) would provide us any clues for tomorrow. I do have more thoughts, but they should be deferred for then, once I've seen said flip to help me narrow them down considerably. Or I could be here all night going on and on about if/then/else nested clauses. Man, that was so geeky.

I'd ask that we wait until Nitori weighs in with his thoughts before we hammer Andrew, since true lurkers suck and we should get all the info we can.

[Ranmilia]

Votecount!  With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, town is in LYLO.

Otter (1): Yakumo
Yakumo (2): Otter, Andrew
Andrew (2): Corwin, Dhyer

[Nitori]

I really do disagree with OK's claims, since I did voice my two suspicions early (Andy and Otter). I was doing the waiting bit since it is LYLO; one slipup and everything's gone. That being said, I see no reason to hold my vote any longer. My top suspect is still Otter (for all the reasons I have stated) , so that is where my vote is going.

##VOTE: Otter

[Yakumo]

"The second," Yakumo?  Cor placed the vote six hours before my post.  I think that's a decent stretch of time, and hey, the point's moot -- if I'm wrong and Andrew's innocent, the scumhammer will come as soon as the scum get here.  I'll be sure about Andy as soon as that -doesn't- happen.  I'm -already- sure about you because it hasn't happened for quite some time.  The scum really have no reason to prolong this unnecessarily.

Yes, six hours.  In the morning, when nobody was likely to be around.  The only post other than the mod between Corwin's vote and you claiming that he absolutly had to be scum because he hadn't been scumhammered was me.  You didn't even acknowledge, AGAIN, the fact that the scum can't be here 24/7.  Just because he made it six hours through a fairly inactive part of the day doesn't mean anything.  He could have been a townie and the scum hadn't seen the vote yet.  You know as well as I do that some of the people playing, such as OK just as an example since he's one of the most obvious, have an erratic schedule.  There's no way to be sure, with nobody posting, that the scum could have seen that vote if he were a townie.  Yet you speak as if this is the gospel truth and there's no possible way that anything could be different at all.  Yes, I believe that Andrew is scum, but the fact that he hadn't been scumhammered at that point was no proof at all of anything.

Also, are you just going to keep ignoring my questions?  You've had plenty of chances to answer them.  Why did you, when your track record is very much against no-lynch, suggest that I should have tried to let a day go to that?  Why did you not acknowledge any of the other possibilities for a lack of scumhammer aside from myself being scum earlier, and now with this latest bit, Andrew?  You're putting out one possible explanation out of a group and acting like it's the only possible one, which just happens to be one that involves you not dying.  Care to give a better explanation?

[AndrewRogue]

Blarghle. Gone for a bit because everyone refuses to post, and NOW stuff starts happening.

Either way, I stand by my vote. Regardless of how this turns out, Yakumo's press for no claims is bad town play at best, scum play at worst and is unacceptable at this juncture in the game, as is his general stance on roleclaims.

I'll see if I can chime in with more after class.