Within a Deep Mafia Forest - Game Topic (GAME OVER)

[AndrewRogue]

All right.

At the moment, we have absolutely nothing beyond what we've already established to work with. Despite all the votes floating about right now, unless I'm missing some logic game breakdown, it is impossible to say who is scum and who is town. The one general assumption you can make at this point is that there is no townie voting townie at this point. While, thanks to the weird time spread of the game, it is possible, it is relatively safe to assume that this hasn't happened.

Which leaves us with any number of possibilities.

The worst looking people to me, at the moment, are Nitori, Yakumo and Dhyer.

Nitori and Dhyer have been quiet, have stayed fairly neutral on most subjects and basically been almost completely unmemorable.

Yakumo has been fairly active in, you know, quashing information. He has brought in personal matters as justifications for his votes. He overlooks the obvious reasoning behind Otter's logic: speculating about how things would work if you were scum is silly and non-constructive, because you know your alignment. Thus, if you are town, you wouldn't speculate about the vote conditionals with you as scum because you aren't! He tossed a half-hearted vote on the Ciato train.

But one of us hasn't voted yet. Since we seem fairly stalemated at this point, I'm putting it down to OK.

Since no one will listen to me regarding claims, I do ask that you listen to me about this. This day isn't going to end without some sort of action, and you, OK, are the only one who hasn't taken it. So, I implore you. Take a look at the facts and put a vote down. The game needs something to swing it, and you are that thing.

OK, we need you to decide what you want to do and put it into action. It might end the day, it might end the game, or it might not. But at this point,  you need to put your chips down too.

[Yakumo]

Yakumo has been fairly active in, you know, quashing information. He has brought in personal matters as justifications for his votes. He overlooks the obvious reasoning behind Otter's logic: speculating about how things would work if you were scum is silly and non-constructive, because you know your alignment. Thus, if you are town, you wouldn't speculate about the vote conditionals with you as scum because you aren't! He tossed a half-hearted vote on the Ciato train.

(emphasis added)

This is a false statement.  My major reason for wanting an explanation from Otter is that both times, there were perfectly reasonable possibilities at the time he made his statements that NEITHER person he was referring to was scum.  When he was referring to when I had two votes and he had one, he failed to mention that Nitori had not shown up yet and the scum could possibly have been forced to wait on him.  When he made the same claim about you, he made in the morning at a point where the only person besides the mod who had posted in here between the vote and him talking was me.  No OK, no Nitori, no Dhyer yet this morning.  If even one of those three people were scum, and they would pretty much have to be unless all three of you, me, and Otter are unless Corwin is some sort of scum vigilante, then there couldn't have been a scumhammer at that point no matter what.  Yet in both cases, especially the second, he stated that the person with the vote on them was scum in a manner which basically left no room for discussion.  Even if you think that he shouldn't even bring up the possibilities of him being scum, which I disagree with but not enough to make a huge case of it, there was still the possiblity that neither person in either case was scum, and he ignored that too.

How do I know Andrew's scum, now?  Pretty simply -- I still see Corwin as more or less completely confirmed, and he voted for Andrew without the game ending.  That vote should have been met with instant-lose scumhammer, if Andy were         .  From where I'm standing, we've now isolated two of the scum, Yakumo and Andrew.

This is the statement in question for the second case.  To me, this says that he is 100%, with absolutely no possible room for doubt, certain that the game would be over if you weren't scum.  However, as I have already stated, three people other than yourself still had not appeared in the topic after the vote, which tells me that even if you were town, the odds of a scumhammer occuring by then were virtually nil, as all three of them would need to be available to capitalize on a townie mistakenly voting for another.  This is why I want an answer from him: his logic makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.

[OblivionKnight]

I realize that. 

My personal thought on votes would be to go for Nitori or Dhyer at the moment.  But I know that won't do a thing, and just split the votes up and lengthen the day some more. 

So I'm looking at the three people here that have actual votes on them. 

I'll have a vote by midnight, EST, tonight.  I need to read and think this through again.

[AndrewRogue]

*shrugs* Don't vote on one of us three just because that's all. You certainly aren't alone in suspecting Dhyer and Nitori.

Go through, reach your conclusions and vote.

[Corwin]

Don't have much time, only skimmed the recent posts, and this jumped at me:

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=375.msg9203#msg9203

Andrew:

The one general assumption you can make at this point is that there is no townie voting townie at this point.

Andrew, once more:

The worst looking people to me, at the moment, are Nitori, Yakumo and Dhyer.

Okay! I'm voting Andrew, and he doesn't list me amongst his suspected scum. He also refrained from seriously attacking me today. Is this an unintended admission of guilt?

Whatever. If scum are going for a bussing strategy today, let's go for that and net us a scum in the form of Andrew and some breathing space. If scum are trying to divert the lynch from themselves for a decisive win, all they would need is a vote outside the three people with votes on them to scumhammer, and Andrew seems to be aiming for just that.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=375.msg9214#msg9214

Don't vote on one of us three just because that's all.

Well, why not? If it's some kind of elaborate trick and not bussing to build up credibility or some improbable 'all three scum aren't around together' situation, we've had ample time to get to the bottom of this, and haven't. I'd go with Occam's razor, here, and say Andrew keeps on looking scummier the more he talks.

To OK: There is also the unfortunate possibility of hitting town on one of Nitori and Dhyer, and a scumhammer forming to seal the game and lose it for us.

[Ranmilia]

Votecount!  With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, town is in LYLO.

Otter (2): Yakumo, Nitori
Yakumo (2): Otter, Andrew
Andrew (2): Corwin, Dhyer

It's now been something like 4 realtime days, during 3 of which votes have been cast in LYLO.  That is pretty silly and players on both sides have been PMing and IMing me with frustration at the pace.  So let me help out a bit. 

- If a townie votes for another townie, the game will end immediately as scum will be presumed to insta-hammer.  This will not affect anything except eliminating the waiting time for the scum team to get their act together.  At this point in time the game is not over, draw logical conclusions. 
- Future days (if any) will have deadlines, LYLO or not.  Probably 48 hours or less.  I said there'd be no deadline today and I'll stick to that, but the longer this day goes, the shorter all others will be, as I'm hearing a unanimous sentiment of "MAKE IT END."  Discussion welcome as always.

[Corwin]

Yes, let's just let it end. Unless you guys think I'm a lying loser this is pretty much word of god that Andrew = scum. On top of all the other evidence.

[Ranmilia]

By "draw logical conclusions" I mean to say that every vote currently in play is either cast by or cast against scum.

[Corwin]

Yes, that much is obvious.

Otter (2): Yakumo, Nitori
Yakumo (2): Otter, Andrew
Andrew (2): Corwin, Dhyer


1)
Otter = scum => Yakumo/Nitori = inconclusive
Otter = town => Yakumo=Nitori=scum

2)
Yakumo = scum => Otter/Andrew = inconclusive
Yakumo = town => Otter=Andrew=scum

3)
Andrew = scum => Corwin/Dhyer = inconclusive
Andrew = town => Corwin=Dhyer=scum=unpossible!!!!11one => Andrew is scum

Here it is for the lazy people who can't be bothered to draw their own logical conclusions. Or even post. Despite being mentored.

[Dhyerwolf]

Andrew, if Nitori and I look scummy to you because we are being fairly neutral on most subjects and not saying too much, why isn't OK on your list? We now have a promise to vote that never materialized, which definitely speaks to not taking a very solid stance.

One minor addendum to “If Andrew is town” is that Yakumo would be scum. Granted, considering that I’m very sure Corwin is town barring some extreme insanity (and also pretty sure that Andrew is scum), that part add on isn’t too relevant. Actually, putting together Alex’s saying that every vote is either scum by scum or for scum, unless someone really thinks that Corwin is not town, then Andrew is scum.

But at this point, I guess we are still waiting to see what move OK will make, but all the facts put together (Chance of Corwin being scum is ridiculously low, the suspicious claim on Otter than likely goes against the sane cop, extremely strong pushing for claims) make Andrew the best bet to hit scum today, I think.

[OblivionKnight]

Network fun.  And falling asleep too early. 

Anyway, looking over everything,,,let's end this either way. 

##Vote: Yakumo

So help me dear lord Bowie if I'm wrong. 

From what's been said so far, I feel he's scum - his change in style this day has been a little odd.  Overall, I've had a bit more of a scum read for him than Otter, so...let's see if that's it. 

[Corwin]

Andew. Scum. 100%. Come on! He was slipping from day 1!

[Yakumo]

Okay,  no matter which side you're on, that vote is incredibly risky and stupid.  We've virtually proven Corwin as town and that Andrew is therefore, due to the fact that if a townie were voting for a townie Alex said he'd end this, virtually confirmed scum.  WHY PUT YOUR VOTE ON AN UNKNOWN IN THIS SITUATION?  WHY?  THIS MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE!?  The ONLY way this makes sense is if you're scum and are trying to make it look like I might be scum, and then, if nobody else believes you, when I don't die you just gave town the game.  I fail to see a single reason why a townie would do this, if you're wrong you just lost and even if you're right you risked everything on it while there was a much, much better target.  I want this game to end as much as anyone else, but not because someone was absolutely retarded and ignored the evidence.  Even if you think that I'm scummier than Otter, why the hell are you not voting for Andrew at this point and bringing that up tomorrow?  THOU SHALT NOT SUFFER CONFIRMED SCUM TO LIVE.

On the chance this vote still matters:
##Unvote: Otter, ##Vote: Andrew

[Laggy]

STOP POSTING.

- If a townie votes for another townie, the game will end immediately as scum will be presumed to insta-hammer.  This will not affect anything except eliminating the waiting time for the scum team to get their act together.

[Ranmilia]

On the third day, everyone danced.  There was not enough WHEAT, they decided, so they spoke about WHEAT for hours on end. 

So long, in fact, that the effects of the mushroom almost wore off...

"Hey!"  cried Yakumo.  "Otter is the GLASS BALL!  SCUM!  SCUM!"

"Hey!"  cried Otter.  "Yakumo's not even a ball at all!  He's one of those evil blocks that leap out and squish balls!"

The addled forest inhabitants eventually decided that the Shadowlands were much more psychedelic than the Crystal Path, so Yakumo was pushed into the lake. 

And that's the last thing anyone remembers from their old life.

Now all the balls and everyone else have beards and spend their days rocking out and being addicted to mushrooms.  A higher state of consciousness has been achieved!

Yakumo, an Animated Crushing Block From the Shadowlands (Vanilla Townie), was scumhammered when he was voted upon by OK, the Pink Ball (Vanilla Townie)!  Corwin, the Rubber Ball (Vigilante), and Nitori, the Normal Ball (Vanilla Townie), were summarily drugged up in endgame!

The scum team has won!  Congratulations to:
- Andrewrogue, The Knytt, Godfather
- Otter, The Glass Ball, Vanilla Scum
- Dhyer, The Utopiocan Yoga Dragon, Vanilla Scum

[Ranmilia]

Night Actions:

N1:
- Scum kill Excal
- LadyDoor investigates Andrew (INNOCENT)
- Kilga investigates Yakumo (GUILTY)

N2:
- Scum kill LadyDoor
- Corwin kills Kilga
- LadyDoor investigates Otter (GUILTY)
- Kilga investigates Andrew (GUILTY)

[AndrewRogue]

I really think congratulations are the last thing we deserved. This was less a game of who won, more a game of who lost less.

Although I must say that I am personally dumbfounded that you all didn't manage to lynch me for a number of reasons that I can't even count.

[OblivionKnight]

Fuck me.

[Lady Door]

That was the most aggravating thing in the world to watch.

Also, thanks to scum for totally setting me up and then NKing me. You actually saved me the trouble of trying to save myself in LYLO, where I would have had to explain why my investigation results on Andrew didn't keep me from attacking him.

(The answer, for the record, is because I've never played cop and I saw too many opportunities for the result to obscure whether he was scum or not. Turned out I was right, but it wouldn't've looked great had I lived and stood to claim cop.)

[Ranmilia]

By far the funniest/most bleeding psyduck thing that happened all game was LadyDoor, the sane cop, investigating Andrew, getting an innocent result, and then pushing for his lynch so hard that when she flipped cop everyone assumed she had gotten a guilty on him.  Note that even though he was in fact the godfather in this case, pushing hard to lynch someone you have an innocent result on as cop is one of the least sensible things you can do.   It completely nukes your credibility  and destroys the usefulness of any further results you may get, even if you are right, and usually you're just lynching a townie.

The scum came this close to having Andrew perform the N2 kill and lose his GF immunity... and Corwin came this close to persuading himself to vig Andrew or Otter. 

Day 3 was a trainwreck on both sides.  After Yakko and Otter voted each other, it was logically clear that at least one of them was scum.  Pushing for an Andrew train made no sense whatsoever.  Andrew marked himself as Otter's scumbuddy by pulling a 180 and voting alongside him, and both of them wound up ridiculously scummy.  I thought it was totally clear that Andrew and Otter would be lynched in succession and scum would kill Corwin and Yakumo, leaving a Dhyer-OK-Nitori endgame.  Indeed I was prepared to automatically advance the game to this point.   

The only argument whatsoever for Yakumo being scum instead of Otter was Yakko's "Let's not claim in LYLO" stance, which is indeed quite bizzare and scummy.  You need to fullclaim in LYLO.  Well, that and his frustrated sniping at Otter.  I'm kind of surprised this was enough to override the obviousness of Andrew/Otter scumteam though.

[Lady Door]

Yeah, well, like I said. Never played cop. Was not aware of the concept of breadcrumbing. Was not comfortable with the potential that my result could be clouded by being Paranoid or Insane or that he could be Godfather or something. So I basically ignored the read, decided to keep it in mind, and keep going from where I left off on Day 1.

Can't help it that he looked damn scummy. Can't help it that the rest of town was going so far off who I thought looked bad. Decided that since no one was going to go for Otter, getting the flip on the person I'd investigated who I was still suspicious of was a good second place. I know NOW that it was bad cop play. Won't happen again, etc.

Like I said: thank you, scum, for saving me from myself. I surely would've screwed town over if I'd lived and had to deal with role claiming and whatnot. My death WOULD have achieved the same aims -- that is, kill Otter and kill Andrew -- had Day 3 ... um... not gone off the way it did.

[Hunter Sopko]

I was LadyDoor's mentor

During the hours that LadyDoor pressed her attack on Andy, I was at work and then on my way to NJ. Before I had left I'd advised her to play normally until we were surer of her sanity. I didn't really expect her to go after Andy like that and if I'd been around I'd have probably told her to tone it down a tad. Instead she ended up just pulling a me >.>

People seemed to do alright until Day 3. It just sort of devolved then. The scum became pretty apparant due to the almost Dethy type logic puzzle the votes became, but when Laggy posted to stop after Yakko's change of vote for Andy instead of OK's change of vote I sat there stunned for a minute because I thought it meant that Andy WASN'T scum.

Other than the one overextension in attacking Andy, LadyDoor played a pretty good game. She's got a good grasp of the debate part of the game and her posts were always informative. Just needs more experience to get a handle on the meta of the game. Probably needs to play as scum once too.

[Yakumo]

Look, if you people really think that my not wanting a fullclaim at that point was scummy, explain to me exactly what you expect to get out of it that's going to help town.  Seriously.  I really don't understand at all why you consider that bad play.  Please enlighten me, because that's the way I see it and I'm going to continue to play that way unless you guys can explain exactly why roleclaiming really helps town so much.  I don't see any point to it if nobody has any information that could actually affect the lynch.  Now that we know nobody's left playing against me and I can trust everything people say again, I really would like an explanation.

[Excal]

Honestly, for all that I managed to twig on to Otter being scum before Ciato did, I suspect I would have been voting him on Day 2 simply because he was being an ass, and behaving in a way which, quite frankly, isn't fun for those involved.  So what if he was a fellow townie, better to play to lose one game and stop the behaviour in future games, than to win one game and convince people they don't want to play and so there's never any more games to win or lose ever again.

That said...  yeah...  Andy was bloody apparent shortly after Day 3 began.  And...  I can't honestly claim that Dhyer was showing his colours since I was told he was scum, but the way he was basically ignoring Otter in the second half of day 3 when Otter was the scummiest thing around just screamed scum too.

Finally, on the roleclaim issue...  yeah.  I have to admit, why is it scummy to not want a suite of roleclaims?  Sure, you can trip scum up.  But the thing is, if they all claim vanilla or other roles which can't be proven one way or the other?  Heck, Andy claimed cop, with two other cops in the game, and that didn't twig people on to his being scum.  Best case scenario, you get nothing.  Worst case scenario, there was a really badly performing doc who might have swung things around for town who would instead out himself and get summarily executed.

[AndrewRogue]

Basically, everything I said was serious.

The fact is that roleclaims can, sometimes, confirm each other. In addition, scum can make mistakes or posit things that contradict town roles. Essentially, there is a chance that townies can get more relevant information out of them. Given that, at LYLO, there is no second chance if you screw up, it is vital that you mobilize all information.

In addition, while none of this is surefire, forcing scum to lie more can cause problems for them, as they make claims that just don't quite sync right and add to general scum reads.

Finally, at the very least, it can serve to confirm townies (see Corwin this game, who managed to sneak under the confirmed radar for a while, despite it being obvious from post one of day 3), and, at the very least, can put the game down to claim vs counterclaim, which is not necessarily a bad place for town.

Yes, there may be power roles that could help town but, in all seriousness. If you lynch wrong, you lose the game. Town needs all the information it can get at LYLO, and roleclaims can provide it. Remember. That doc can't help you if you lose the game before the next night.