[Game Over] Worms Armageddon Mafia

[Ranmilia]

What is there to clarify on that?  It means what it says.  Lynching scum day 1 doesn't happen unless the town is playing at a much higher level than the scum.  Such is clearly not the case here, too many new/inexperienced players.

[Glen Veil]

Trying to predict why someone was killed generally leads into a whole bunch of WIFOM. It's probably best for Town to avoid that, as it just leads to circular arguments mostly.

Alright, read the explanation for WIFOM, makes alot of sense when I actually think about it, thanks for clarifying.

[EvilTom]

Sorry, I'm back now. Anime convention crazyness is over. Will take me a little while to catch up though.

[EvilTom]

I feel bad about mono-railing but after a couple of re-reads Mage still looks the worst. I'm looking at other cases too, but I'll start with the prime candidate and come back to others.

Tonfa also seemed to stifle discussion in his posts before my accusation, and I brought that to light.

This sort of thing was discussed already, so I won't go into it again.

So, yeah. Other cases may exist, and, hell, from the sounds of it, they do and are just blooming, but we gotta take care of scum one day at a time. And today, is Tonfa's day.

He seemed dead set on Tonfa, almost to the exclusion of all else.

Though, we should definitely keep discussion up for when D2 happens. Who do you people think are the second scummiest, and why? (Even if it's just repeating others, it's still insightful, given that it shows where people stand)
I say, from what I've seen, it's gonna be Alex. Though, I'll admit this is a very weak suspicion. All I've really got is that his aversion to immersing himself even a little into D1 strikes me as odd, and counteracts productivity.

Asking a question of nobody in particular is just needless fluff, in an attempt to look like he's scumhunting. "Counteracting productivity" and aversion to immersion. So weak!

As it stands, we're deciding between Tonfa, Excal, and Glen. Personally, I still don't see the case against Glen. He still strikes me as just... y'know... new. I mean, he got accused, and has been flailing around trying to defend himself.

Except that's also how scum act. Free pass!

As for Tonfa vs. Excal, Excal has still been sloppy and fluffy, which strikes me as odd, but my target is still Tonfa. First and foremost. Though Excal and Alex are taking a good couple of seats behind him.

No evidence of said sloppyness. I feel bad for Excal. Biggest smear campaign ever. I'll look into that next.

Huh. I completely missed two posts (Glen then Kilga). And, really, Glen's last post is setting off some alarm bells for me too. He's playing too much of an aggressive defensive game, even if he is just newb-town. Striking out at Tonfa just to save his own skin? That sits rather horribly with me. Almost willing to switch over to Glen. Will have to see what else comes up.

Except it's a perfectly town thing to do. The actions you described are not newb-town or scum, they're just town.
- "Waiting to see what else comes up" is yet another delay tactic Mage has used several times.

And then Kilga continues by playing the safe card and saying he'll vote for either Glen or Excal. (also saying he'll actively vote against a Tonfa lynch, which sticks out to me, though that means nothing when we don't know what Tonfa is) On re-read, though, this really bugs me, especially after his goings on about Excal.

Yeah well if it means nothing, then why is it scummy? And if it means something, then what?

##Vote Mage again. I no longer believe he is "newb town" or whatever.

[Kiro]

Alex: Tonfa calling people liabilities is good? That just means he's lazy. And Tonfa called Glen scummiest first, I don't see why he wanted to suddenly switch it up and go for a liability with plenty of time left for discussion in the Day with little furthering of his case on Mage or no real clear of Glen. I'm finding it a little different from the laziness that could be ascribed to you in Day 1 where you don't say much, but do state you don't like the top 2 lynch trains and chose a 3rd best one.

Soppy doesn't feel like talking to me? Gut suspicion on someone and not contributing more to or against it before it went all the way to mislynch is still my gripe on you. Admittedly, I'm finding it harder to pursue a case on you atm. You have some unnecessary comments in your analysis of Bard and Yoshi today like "even his jokevote on Bard was seemingly in response to someone else's" which do not meaningfully add to the case. Looks a little like fluff. But I'm not disagreeing with either of those cases at the moment.

Not satisfied with Alice's answer so far. You took the time in that deadline rush to put in a few sentences urging others to vote for Glen. You would have known that when you posted it, you'd have to act fast. Yet it didn't materialize when it reasonably could have. Post, F5, read, "oh, Kilga will be here at deadline since he posted 40 seconds before me," repost, vote Glen, done. That can't take more than 1 minute, 2 if you want to add a few sentences explaining the switch. Also need a case from you.

I guess one thing to note about Yoshi is how he's kind of giving Mage a bit of a pass despite being his #2 most suspicious near the end of Day 1. And no mention of Kilga? Also, I am not understanding why you're voting Smodge. Just because Excal picked apart a bit of Smodge's argument doesn't make it scummy unless you tell us which parts were scummy. That's all I'm seeing in your latest vote and I'm not following your train of thought in voting from Alex to Smodge, please explain.

Mage: Not really agreeing with Kilga being singleminded of avoiding the Tonfa lynch as scummy. It's just a stronger declaration of something like what Alex did which is neutral at best. What would be scummy of Kilga is that he just parked his vote on a minor wagon intending to switch it to a mislynch target, but that's now the point you're putting forward. Also, where did Alice say Kilga's vote was crap? Also, no reutterance or Day 2 feelings about the Tonfa case? A bit of an eyebrow raise there.

Bard's case on Alex is pretty bad, ignoring most of what Alex has said today except for his vote. Even if some things you pointed out are correct like Sopko's comment about "I want to lynch X" being semantics, I'm not seeing how Alex is specifically deserving of your vote other than being on the Excal train which you don't even mention. You instead suggest Alex voted for no reason which is by all means incorrect. Whining about OMGUS is dumb in Mafia as it has little bearing on reasoned arguments. To look at your voting history now that your case was brought up, Glen, Tonfa and Excal were tied at 4 when you voted Alex dropping Glen to 3 and upping Alex to 3. I don't get as much why you did this with time winding down and you also had suspicions of Tonfa earlier in the day who made you go "argh what" in #78. Could reasonably be distancing from a mislynch as some have argued.

Oh, and Smodge says Rat is the scummiest near the end of Day 1, but doesn't mention him Day 2 and goes for Yoshi? Any comments about Rat now?

Is it common for people here to just treat each new Day as brand new and not bother to mention their previous Day's suspicions again? If it is a norm here, then tell me, but it looks reasonably suspicious. Vote going to Bardiche for a weird case on Alex in Day 2 and what looks like pushing a minor train when there was no time to do so.

##Unvote Hunter Sopko
##Vote Bardiche

Cut by Tom: His case on Mage seemed to pick a few things I didn't look over as carefully. His ranking on the scumdar is going up a bit.

[Kiro]

EBWOP: Corrections below.

Cut by Tom: His case on Mage seemed to pick a few things I didn't look over as carefully. His ranking on the scumdar is going up a bit.

Tom's case on Mage
Mage's ranking on the scumdar.

[Yoshiken]

The main reasons I'm voting Smodge are that each post seems to be a change in vote, and that he's tried using some very flawed logic to attack me, who I know to be Town, and Rat, who I'm seeing as Town so far. I'd write them off as Town/Town struggles, but the logic he's using and the style of the posts seem intended to try railroading us.
(Partially semantics, I guess? Still, only partially, and I'll only use the post-phrasing as a decider when I can't decide who to vote for.)

[Magetastic]

Pre-message: I considered it obvious that my case on Tonfa carried through to the next day, and that I wouldn't have to re-iterate it. And the two flips tell me nothing about Tonfa (yet). Also, apparently he's dying now anyways, so...

I... wow. You just took everything I've said and/or done in the worst possible way. Thanks for the smear campaign.

As for what you said, going down the list:
- Let's drop that, it's really kind of pointless by now.
- At that point, I was damn well  dead set on Tonfa. I won't argue that my resolve weakened over time, but he was always my #1 target.
- I mentioned it was an incredibly weak suspicion in the part you quoted. Also, I was trying to stir up discussion. I tried to do so a few times. (All of them failed, sadly) And, what. When I'm trying to get everybody's thoughts I should name every single person?
- Yeah, it is. I shouldn't have given him that free pass.
- I know Excal outside of the game, and he's usually a lot more... articulate? Ugh, I'm not sure what the word is. But it was sloppier than the Excal I know, personally. Although given that he was working, I should've noted that and factored in how tired he'd most likely be. My bad.
- That makes no sense. Voting to save your own skin is akin to flailing. You're grabbing at whatever you can just to not die/be accused. So, if flailing under pressure is a null read, why is this method of voting not the same? (Which was covered and I admitted my hastiness to, btw) Also, why is it so scummy that when I have something to say, I say it, and when something new comes up, I wait until I have something before I switch my vote? Would you rather I vote willy-nilly?
- I never said it was scummy. I said it stuck out to me. And, if Tonfa turns out to be scum, then to me, that signifies a voting method designed to save scum, which would only be used by scum. Note that Tonfa and Excal both start out case-less in Kilga's eyes, and only Tonfa remains safe.

And to whomever asked me which post of Alice's called the vote crap, it wasn't actually phrased that way, but it was there. And it's in the posts I mentioned earlier.

*sigh* Now back to scumhunting. Updates:
- Tonfa's dead. If Tonfa's town, then I'm forced to re-evaluate every single one of my cases.
- All other cases I'm not quite seeing.

[Hunter Sopko]

His blatant language in "I want to lynch X" seems more telling now than it was then. It wasn't "I think X is scum." He just wanted them lynched.

Semantics. Good grief, my man, do I honestly have to literally lay out in every post that I think my suspect is scum when I voted on him saying, "I think Alex is scum and this takes priority over all else". Do you really think my not wording it exactly as "I want him lynched because he is scum" is a scumtell? Because honestly, not stating the obvious hardly seems like a valid charge to me.

Not quite what I was asking you, and I misphrased that a bit. Yes, you put your reasoning for voting Alex in your votepost, but I asked you why you thought voting Alex now was productive, not why you are voting him, and you blew the question off. Thats more what I'm trying to call attention to. And this is given yes, hunting scum is always important, but potentially derailing town near the end of the day leads to chaos. You see how muddled it got near the end there, and thats why I'm (and others) are trying to draw attention to the vote switching of everyone because there are more likely than not scum hidden in there. Thats the main reason why I summarized the votes along with my analysis.
 
Yoshi posts an original argument... pretty well thought out and I see where he's coming from, even if I'm not quite going to hop on that. I think though, after Day 1, he'll have to keep this up on a consistant basis to go down on my list.

And we have more me-too'ing from Mage, this time hopping onto Rat's argument against Kilga... Mrf...

NINJA'D- I would consider flailing to involve a lot more than just voting to save yourself, Mage. Flailing is lashing out against other players, posting inadequate defenses at the expense of scumhunting as well as just bad play in general. Going JUST on voting to save oneself just ends up going down very WIFOMY roads and is more often than not going to end up with more dead townies, so you need to take the behavior into account. As for why people think your play is scummy, it's that you don't take initiative and often piggyback on others' arguments without trying to add anything to the discussion. At least, to us. You may think you're doing differently, of course. But the point is this is just a very common scum tactic and we can't just keep ignoring it regardless of player history.

[Magetastic]

Ahh, communication breakdown here. I meant to say that voting to save yourself falls under the umbrella of flailing. It's one of many parts. Sorry if I worded that weird.

And, uhm... hmm. Yeah, alright. I see your point. I'll try to take the initiative more, from now on. Thanks for pointing that out to me.

[Kilgamayan]

Hooray distractions! Terribly sorry about taking so long to go over Yoshiken. I'll get on that now.

Since we're ~13 hours away from deadline, however, ##Extension

[Laggy]

Votecount

Rat (0):
Glen (0):
Bard (3): Alex, Soppy, Kiro
Alex (0): Yoshi
Tonfa (0): Mage
Soppy (0): Kiro
Smodge (1): Yoshi
Tom (0):
Mage (1): Tom
Kilga (2): Rat, Mage
Yoshi (2): Kilga, Smodge
Alice (0):
Kiro (0): Alex

Extension (1/7): Kilga

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 ends in 13 hours.

[Hunter Sopko]

I think, more than worrying about extensions, we need to have people come out and start taking firm stances as voting.

Alice in particular strikes me as someone who needs more involvement.

[Kilgamayan]

Okay, Yoshi explains a few things, but I still have some issues.

3. From the fact that he said he wasn't even gonna bother reading any of the Walls of Text? Maybe him saying he wasn't gonna read part of the topic implied that he wasn't gonna be reading parts of the topic. Maybe.

And when Alex demonstrated he had indeed done some reading (when he talked about Glen and Tonfa in his Excal vote post), why did you not change your vote?

I grow tired of you dodging this question. You were unhappy with Alex not contributing opinions - he does. You were unhappy with Alex not reading the topic - he does. You still don't move your vote. Why?

4. I checked the topic about 15 minutes from deadline. I started writing up a post, previewed, and added a bit for the next 5 posts. I then changed my post to vote Glen, then previewed to find he was down to 3 votes against two 5s. Went to switch vote to Tonfa and the deadline post hit.

This is bullshit. It takes 30 seconds to nuke a post and start from scratch to throw a vote down. If you actually wanted to vote Tonfa you had plenty of time to do so, given 5 minutes ticked off with Tonfa tied with Excal.

5. I meant later in the day there. If the train on Alex were to build, and then I voted him, I'd be accused of train-hopping. It's already happened a few times in this game, no reason it wouldn't happen again.

Except your vote was on Alex at the end of the day yesterday, so no one would have considered you a bandwagoner had you voted him again today later than you did.

Cut by Sopko: I was thinking the same thing about Glen. He dropped a wall without dropping a vote and it saddens me greatly. I still want an extension for the likes of Glen, Alice and now Rat to post more, though.

[Kilgamayan]

As for other non-Yoshi things, I'm not seeing a lot I feel the need to comment on. I'm mostly interested in what Rat and Bard have to say at this point.

Sopko missed/ignored/whatever our back-and-forth but I don't feel like pursuing that further today because I feel there are enough quality lynch targets (Yoshi, Bard, Mage, with Glen as a dark horse) for today as it is. Will probably revisit this on Day 3.

Mage, if I may ask, why is your vote still on me? You completely glossed over my response to you but didn't remove your vote.

[Kilgamayan]

Also the count on me should be 2. The player list is right but the number is wrong.

[Magetastic]

Oh, right. Felt like you were OMGUS'ing.

[Kilgamayan]

...OMGUSing who?

[Magetastic]

Me. But on re-read, I can tell that's not the case.

##Unvote

Will get back to this in the morning. For now, there's just not enough from too many.

##Vote Extension

[EvilTom]

My computer crashed and I lost my massive analysis post T_T Here's a new one.. ;-;

THE DEATH OF AN EXCAL

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72049#msg72049 is the post that offended Soppy, Xanth etc.

The reasoning was ok, but this alarms me:

I'm not completely sold on Excal and Rat being scumbuddies, but it'd be something to look at if Excal turned up scum. Random defense by townies happens a lot and can always throw a wrench in things.

Then Glen acts a dodgy bastard with reasoning like:

This whole back and forth really feels like you're trying to get me to justify possible faults you think you see in Smodge's post which I originally used to switch over to Rat, which is something I cannot accurately do since I am not Smodge. 

So Glen relied on Smodge's case, Excal called him on it, then Mage is all like "Pfft it's not my case, ask Smodge if you have problems with it!"

Kiro pointed it out at the time which I originally missed:

So you used someone else's case as a basis for your vote and yet are not able to determine how to justify said person's case because you're not him. Pretty much then, you really don't have an original point regarding Rat and are riding on gut and the coattails of someone else.

And then:

What I was attempting to say there was less "I don't know how to justify this other person's case I'm using" and more "I don't understand why you're asking me to justify the original case instead of my views regarding the original case on said person."

[...]
##Vote: Excal

OMGUS!!!! How dare you call me on this etc.


People then piled on Glen for a bit, till:

Smodge's case was on Carthrat, not Excal, as such, it makes me less inclined to lean Carthrat as more scummy.  Since I wasn't really buying Excal's arguments and Carth is slowly seeming less scummy due to people noting his particular writing style and Smodge's absence, I was inclined to switch back to Excal.  As I have noted before though, I'm still inclined to suspect both of them as scum until I see how the lynch/murder for day and night one turn out.

So "Carthrat is less scummy therefore Excal is more scummy" - This is not a logical explanation for why Glen voted Excal in the first place! More evasion.

Alex is next to vote Excal, giving away little: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72274#msg72274

Followed by Smodge: http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72274#msg72274
I don't agree with Smodge's arguments;

Him going after Mage, Admittedly mage did something wrong however it is so glaringly obvious a newb townie mistake i find it surprising that excal goes after him so hard, it could just be an attempt at teaching mage a lesson buut it might nto have been either.

- Smodge gives Mage a free pass, then attacks Excel for scumhunting Mage. What?

Smodge then brings Excal into tie with the trains with this argument:

So overall excal has spent plenty of time breaking down cases but not much presenting new ones.
His votes are used on people like mage or the serious one on Tonfa (which i myself have said i don't understand the case)

What's wrong with breaking down cases, and how many new cases can one come up with on day 1?

Overall to me there seems to be much more scummy people than Tonfa/Glen/Mage that Excal seems to be attacking so heavily.

If there are much more scummy people around than Tonfa/Glen/Mage, then why didn't *you* vote for them Smodge? Why vote Excal? Absolute hypocrisy.
And also:

I do look at other players however as we're down to the last 5 hours attempting to push for the lynch of those who have 1 or no votes on them is throwing away a vote of importance

So exactly who was Excal meant to go after, Smodge?
Excal wasn't a tie train until *you* put him there.
Then "Oh we should only vote for the trains now, I'm not moving my vote, Excal needs to die".

Glen then unvotes Excal and moves to Tonfa. But fear not, Kilga is there to unvote Alex and vote Excal, on the proviso of: "Will switch to Glen at the last second if Excal doesn't get enough votes to overtake Tonfa." Note that Kilga did not explain his reasoning for the switch.

##Vote: Excal

Starting to see more of the reasoning behind his train, most likely the switch from Mage to Tonfa was horribly awkward and really seemed more like trying to save oneself than actually find scum.

Can still switch over to Glen, would much rather lynch Glen, so people who are claiming to wish to vote Glen, vote Glen plzkthx! Deadline is coming up very soon!

Alice ties Tonfa with Excal. Tonfa saves himself.

The end.


My Analysis:

Glen and Smodge come out of this looking terrible. Between them they pushed the Excal train, and did so with dodgy reasoning, and evaded explaining their reasonings (or did so in an illogical/and or unfounded way).

It was also concerning to see Glen (and to an extent, Soppy) push the Rat/Excal coupling; "If Excal flips scum then go after Rat" (therefore if Excal flips town, ignore Rat? - DANGEROUS when Rat was the one defending Excal the whole time).
Not to mention half of Glen's reasoning was "Rat looks less scummy, so I'm voting Excal" - which is not a real reason to vote Excal.


I know that the trend of today is against Bard and Yoshi, but I want to unravel the mess of Excal's murder, and hopefully catch scum there.

Glen was dodgy there, but after this detailed analysis I've realised Smodge takes the cake. He didn't start the voting on Excal, but he turned it into a train which he rode to the very end. And he did it with suspect logic and reasoning.

##Unovte Mage - but still will watch with suspicion
##Vote Smodge - what is your opinion on this mess? On Glenn, the arguments around Excal, etc. Some answers please.

[Kilgamayan]

Tom, my reason for switching can be found here.

[EvilTom]

Ok fair enough; I didn't see it because you didn't say it in your vote post. Reasoning accepted ;P

[Hunter Sopko]

It was also concerning to see Glen (and to an extent, Soppy) push the Rat/Excal coupling; "If Excal flips scum then go after Rat" (therefore if Excal flips town, ignore Rat? - DANGEROUS when Rat was the one defending Excal the whole time).
Not to mention half of Glen's reasoning was "Rat looks less scummy, so I'm voting Excal" - which is not a real reason to vote Excal.

Am I slightly scummy for "pushing" a Rat/Excal coupling for saying I didn't believe in it but it'd be prudent to look into it if Excal turned out scum? Or is this due to tacit "Glen looks townish" support of Glen I gave and have since changed my mind about today?

As for Kilga, maybe I did misread that post, but I stand by I saw one interpretation of his behavior, you saw another. Given that I've since revised my opinion of Glen based on the flip and Day 2, I suppose we're almost at the point where the point has become moot.

[Glen Veil]

What is there to clarify on that?  It means what it says.  Lynching scum day 1 doesn't happen unless the town is playing at a much higher level than the scum.  Such is clearly not the case here, too many new/inexperienced players.

Eh, I'm really not satisfied with that answer, I might just be reading into more then what's there, but that sentence really just wreaks of "I know who town is and they're inexperienced."  As far as I'm aware me and Mage are really the only two new players to mafia.  To compound it in this post you suggest that town is playing bad, how do we know it's town thats playing bad and not mafia.  I'm really getting a "I know whose on whose side" kinda vibe from this.

##Vote: Sir Alex

The other two players right now that I'm kind of leaning towards scum on are Alice and Bardiche, Bardiche for reasons explained earlier, very quick to claim hypocrisy, when some of his posts are the very same thing, general hoping on trainyness.  Alice because there is a complete lack of post or thoughts from him/her.

Ninjaed

@Tom
Hopefully I can clarify I few things.  I realize that using Smodge's case for a backup of my own is pretty bad, however, I did not bring up how I felt like I was being forced to justify his case for him until after I had already defended the parts of it I thought were relevant.  My switch back to Excal was more due to me not buying his arguments, them being somewhat sloppy and seemingly hastily put together in general.  He openly admitted to one of his points not really being solid in one of his post, I'll see if I can find it in a bit.  Also, quite a few people were commenting on Carth's general style of posting, I was figuring it was generally bad for me to have ever solidly relied on anyone's case that early into day one and was suspecting that I had simply misinterpreted Carth's style, and so I switched back.

I must say though, the case on Smodge is rather unnerving and putting him up there with Alice and Bardiche for me.  Especially this point of yours:

If there are much more scummy people around than Tonfa/Glen/Mage, then why didn't *you* vote for them Smodge? Why vote Excal? Absolute hypocrisy

[Ranmilia]

... man are you really trying to pull me into a debate on whom I feel was/is not playing well?  That is really never very helpful, it just ticks people off, distracts town, and doesn't find scum.  The only reason I made those comments in the first place was to give the main reason why I wasn't trying to go trumpet my cases and pull people around day 1.  Seriously now. 

Whole lotta people posting stuff that make me grit my teeth and want to reaction instavote them.  Latest example is Kilga's "I got a case on Soppy, but I'm not pursuing it, there are lots of juicy lynches today, remember this for tomorrow though folks!" 

Still feelin quite good on Bard though.