[Game Over] Worms Armageddon Mafia

[Kilgamayan]

Mmmm.

I dislike how Soppy disappeared at the end of the first two days, but he was the second on Bard and didn't move after Tonfa's impending modkill was announced. I have no clue what to make of the Alice vote post at the end of Day 3. Tom's Alice/Soppy pair post does raise a lot of good points...and the Alice unvote in the middle of Day 3 was weird. Delurking being enough to absolve someone on Day 3? Really? When the case involving the Excal train was a damned good one?

Yeah, I think I have to go with Soppy over Mage on this one.

##Vote: Hunter Sopko

For the curious, if it came down to Rat and Smodge, I'd vote Smodge over Rat because I don't see how ScumRat benefits from trying to downplay Tom's Alice/Soppy pairing post.

[Magetastic]

Where'd the Rat vs. Smodge thing come from?

[Kilgamayan]

Rat and Smodge I'm leaning town.

This.

I highly doubt I will be voting any of Kiro, Tom or Glen for the rest of the game.

[Kiro]

Before I do a formal reread with Yoshi's NK in mind, here's what I see just from wagon impressions:

With Alice's roleclaim actually being a fake, we cannot strongly clear Smodge just on the grounds of him offering himself up as the Bomb collateral damage. However, his vote on Alice more or less bringing the Alice and Yoshi wagons even at 3 a piece is looking pretty good. Tom is also looking a lot better having started a Yoshi wagon at the beginning, but switching it up to the Alice wagon, in essence diverting a possible mislynch into a scum lynch. Could be scum strategy to the extreme since a Yoshi mislynch might have put Tom squarely back to the forefront of suspicions, but as Scum, he would be pushing for mislynches anyways so the convoluted task of bussing another Scum to give him credit doesn't make as much sense, especially when we haven't seen many Town power roles showing up yet. Therefore, he's looking alright as well. That's pretty much all I see after all that end of Day chaos.

Sopko stands out the most for his views on Alice and Yoshi, highlighted in Tom's case and a different point I also made in Day 3.

Mage is starting to stand out for almost zero contribution in Day 3. The Kilga case just sat there and there wasn't as much opinion-wise on the major aspects of Day 3. This is going to collide with my relative clear of him earlier so I'm going to force myself to reevaluate him from scratch.

Rat is actually the hardest to read at the moment. Waited around on a Mage case for the longest time and had intents to vote Smodge before the Alice fakeclaim. Probably want to see what he contributes the most, whether it is a reaffirmation of the Mage case or someone else.

Kilga is sitting neutral, mainly in that he didn't switch from Yoshi to Alice before Alice's fakeclaim. This after he followed Tom rather quickly onto the Yoshi train and stayed there. Need to reread a bit more about his Yoshi views.

Glen probably deserves a bit of re-evaluation as well, but at least he had more content than Mage. His voting history in Day 3 from what I remember still seems to follow the pattern of sporadic Town more than Scum with a strategy.

[Magetastic]

I was actually asleep for a lot of the Alice stuff (before the train actually started, I think?), and I never really thought Yoshi to be horribly scummy. Also, before the Alice train started, everyone else covered everything I might have even been able to find out. And I've already been called on "relying on what others have to say" so...

Still re-reading the topic, though. So nothing new to say so far. (Though I do still have my eye on Kilga)

[Hunter Sopko]

I knew I'd come out looking bad changing my vote to Alice, but I had to do it. That claim was just... so bad. I'd been terminally indecisive all the second half of day three about whether to go with Yoshi or Alice, and in that post where I voted Yoshi I typed and erased both of their names at least twice.

To respond to what Kiro said yesterday about trying to take credit for Bard's train... yes. I do deserve some credit. I was calling out Bard on suspicious stuff at the end of Day 1 for his late switch to Alex. Thats why I followed up on him Day 2.

Also, Kilga, you're saying I had two good cases on scum, so therefore I must be scum? I don't get why you're crediting me with presenting good scum cases and then agreeing with Tom which was essentially "Soppy is a terrible townie". I would also like to ask if I was town, who would you then look at for the last scum?

I can't help but feel the theatrics with smodge last night were scumplay. A scum won't be afraid to drop the hammer on his scumbuddy in that situation, since they know he's not really a bomb. Also, in the end, he didn't actually drop the hammer and instead let Yoshi do it after everyone pretty much backpatted him saying he was town.

He was on the Excal lynch, being in fact the one that brought it up to a tie in this post:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72287#msg72287
He stuck to Alex like glue in what I am seeing less like a logical move and more deflection of suspicion. Yoshi's case against him still stands, honestly. I don't see one night of what should honestly be a null read completely clear him.

So ##Vote: Smodge

Into new territory, I'm beginning to wonder about Rat. I don't think anyone's said an unkind word about him since Day 1. His voting record is suspect, with a no vote Day 3 and sticking to Glen Day 1. Generally being an enigma the entire game and thats... strange for Rat, in all honesty.

NINJA'D- Bah. Take my point on smodge, will ya...

[Kilgamayan]

You had the Bard case and then the Alice case which you dropped for very sketchy reasons. Him posting more didn't change the fact that he was the Excal swingvote. The Bard case is the only good thing going for you, and in the face of everything else it wasn't enough. We've had one person that chose Alex over Bard flip town (Yoshi) and another that looks very good as of yesterday (Tom) so the potential for bussing has to start being seriously considered.

If you flipped town, Mage would be next in line, which I'm pretty sure I've stated in a previous post today.

[Magetastic]

What's your case on me again, Kilga?

[Kilgamayan]

Massive amounts of active ignorance. You have repeatedly pretended points against your case on me simply didn't exist.

[Hunter Sopko]

I still don't quite get how anyone could say I was bussing Bard... Okay, so if I was scum, Kilga, On Day 1, when Tonfa was very close to being lynched, I chose to call out yet another scum on bad play and harrass him about it well into Day 2, where I keep on him about it despite the fact that I already know that Tonfa was modkilled, cutting my scumteam in half for absolutely dubious gains. THEN I choose to pursue a case on Alice immediately on Day 3 that, while I drop and switch back to it, I doubt anyone would have even thought about Alice the way the day was going.

Considering all of this... that would probably make me the worst scum ever.

[Kiro]

Sopko's case at the beginning of Day 3 on Alice does look reasonably strong. It's just the whole unvote of it later just because Alice had posted 3 times with content really puts doubt on whether he intended to follow through on his suspicions of Alice. No addressing of Alice's posts either. It's a presumably safe place for Scum Sopko to park his vote and another reason he might have done this rather than vote Yoshi was that indeed the Yoshi train was building rather fast. The eventual Yoshi vote at the end of #371 does push Yoshi over Alice 4-3 which is notable enough as well. You're saying both of them are more or less equal for scumminess, so given that, it's to your disadvantage that you chose incorrectly. And I already mentioned that while there's no proof that you could be Scum intending to bus Bard, there's also no evidence to prove that you couldn't have/didn't bus him either.

Kilga is looking ok. The questioning he gave to Yoshi all the way from the beginning of Day 2 is consistent and not flowery points or anything. And the point about seeing who would vote Alice just because she unvoted from L-1 is null as like Kilga said, people vote Alice for the right reasons.

Rat's posts from Day 3, despite talking mostly about Mage, does touch on other people though. I see he talks about Alice in #311 "dancing around the Yoshi train" although I'm not certain if it's for the L-1 unvote or just in general. Ah, but I see #337 where Rat says that Alice's vote on Yoshi is weird for being tacked onto a larger post and agreeing with previous posters. Then Rat sees the linked case in #373 as warnings all over although it's hard to tell what kind of warnings he means. It's a mixed bag as a whole, but if anything, I haven't found any of his posts throughout the game disagreeable as a whole.

So yea, Sopko definitely looks the most suspicious to me with the inconsistent stance on Alice being the strongest point. I'll have to do the Mage rereads later when I have more time and don't have to rush off to my lunch break. Although his #354 pretty much is going non-committive on anyone.

##Vote Hunter Sopko

Cut by Sopko: Yes, I do see some points you made about Bard in Day 1, so I'll give you that. But see above. And Smodge had also been pressing Yoshi for part of the Day. Why would Scum Smodge willingly abandon a Yoshi mislynch and bring the Alice wagon squarely into contention? As for you harrassing Bard in Day 2, I'd need to doublecheck later when you did that and if you did any of that after Tonfa's modkill was announced.

[Glen Veil]

Soppy pretty much beat me to it, though I did point out my thoughts on the whole Smodge taking the hit for everyone at the end of day 3's theatrics:

I can't help but feel the theatrics with smodge last night were scumplay. A scum won't be afraid to drop the hammer on his scumbuddy in that situation, since they know he's not really a bomb. Also, in the end, he didn't actually drop the hammer and instead let Yoshi do it after everyone pretty much backpatted him saying he was town.

He was on the Excal lynch, being in fact the one that brought it up to a tie in this post:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72287#msg72287
He stuck to Alex like glue in what I am seeing less like a logical move and more deflection of suspicion. Yoshi's case against him still stands, honestly. I don't see one night of what should honestly be a null read completely clear him.

So ##Vote: Smodge

Smodge also mentioned he was requesting to be modkilled, yet theres been no mention of this yet after that point, the whole thing just strikes me as an elaborate plot to try and make the last scum look as good and non threatening as possible after scum realized there was a very good chance of them being reduced to to what is most likely 1 more scum at the end of the night.

##Vote: Smodge

I am quite comfortable with keeping this vote until I see a modkill announcement.

[Laggy]

Votecount

Rat (0):
Glen (0):
Soppy (2): Kilga, Kiro
Smodge (2): Soppy, Glen
Tom (0):
Mage (0):
Kilga (0):
Kiro (0):

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 ends in 46 hours.

[Smodge13]

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg73297#msg73297

Ok Glen, i said i was considering requesting it due to time constraints, i received a pm from laggy wanting to know if i wanted a modkill and i refused on the following basis
1. Its friday morning here and thats the start of my weekend - Yay free time
2. with Alice gone its likely we're down to 1 scum and this game may even be over before i start to get bogged down with work again.

As for reasons for letting Yoshi take the possible bomb at last second it was quite simple i know my Alignment, i honestly didn't expect him to volunteer and was surprised he did.

The Yoshi NK confuses me completely, i was coming into today expecting a Yoshi/Smodge lynch train/smokescreen.
Mage points out something about the NK which i believe is completely false about how the NK Targets have all been those who could have been implicated
Xanth - Was looking towny to a degree but didn't seem to have a serious case day 1.
Alex - Obvious after Bards claim was town.
Yoshi - As i said i expected a smodge/yoshi train coming into today.

To start off the new day, I'd like to point out that night kills so far have been killing off extra suspects, thus eliminating discussion. I think we should be looking for those who have either been pulling out new cases constantly, and/or those that have been stifling discussion in some way.

This sets off some scum warning bells to me,

EvilTom- i presented a case against end of day 3, i find it highly unlikely scum-tom would be the first to create a compelling case about Alice and as such believe him Townie.

http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72306#msg72306
Glen Definate Town i find it almost impossible to believe Tonfa Bard AND Alice would put votes on their scumbuddy to save another, that kind of voting power could be used to hit town.

Interesting point the only 2 on that Glen train that are still Alive are Rat and Tom (Tom who i think is town)

On top of this rat then defends bard on day 2 slightly here
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72595#msg72595

But As soon as Kilga points out the rediculousness of Bards claim he votes Bard
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72771#msg72771

Day 3 Rat implicates Alice and comments on him all day yet never throws a vote down.
http://www.rpgdl.com/forums/index.php?topic=3833.msg72927#msg72927

Leaving work, will post more when get home

[EvilTom]

Hell yeah! *Victory dance*

Now to test the other 50% of my theory: ##Vote Soppy

I can't help but feel the theatrics with smodge last night were scumplay. A scum won't be afraid to drop the hammer on his scumbuddy in that situation, since they know he's not really a bomb. Also, in the end, he didn't actually drop the hammer and instead let Yoshi do it after everyone pretty much backpatted him saying he was town.

Whether he actually dropped the hammer or not is, arguably, irrelevant - as Alice was not a bomb.

Smodge and Soppy are still my suspects. The others are either town or noob(town).

The fact that I was right about Alice only reinforces my case on Soppy/Alice scumpair, especially with Soppy's kneejerk reaction defense of Alice.

I was also surprised at Yoshi's NK last night. Not going to attempt to second guess it though.

Soppy L-2.

[Carthrat]

If it's a binary today as well I'd prefer smodge over soppy, and still kinda eyeballing mage over both of them. Tom is all but confirmed town, still uncertain about his Alice/Sopko case. I don't want to go after Soppy on the grounds of lurking, which is a chunk of the case came up. and his defence is pretty reasonable; with two scum dying simultaneously, the first thing a remaining scum does is... bus his buddy? Even if you think he's doing it half-heartedly, I just can't see him going out of his way to draw attention to his pal.

Manly as though Smodge was, it is hard to take him seriously after reflecting on 'I was thinking about asking for a modkill'. What, seriously, two scum die in one day and a townie is thinking 'this is hard work, maybe I should out'? It's a tired old point but the way he pushed himself onto the Excal train way back in day one also bears repeating. One point of his stands out on a reread-

Excal votes have been on things that seem to be more playstyle/wordslips/newbishness than actual scum tells and the reasons he's voting seem to be for simple mistakes.

On top of all this Excal often tears apart people cases and arguments and points out the faulty logic yet doesn't seem to follow this up with any accusations, he seems to be playing the "safe" route to me and go for the easy lynches by agreeing with peoples cases instead of constructing his own which seems scummish to me.

There's a contradiction between these two paragraphs, where he's saying 'Excal goes after trivial things!' and 'Excal TEARS PEOPLE APART and POINTS OUT BADWRONGLOGIC but doesn't follow up', these are pretty exclusive styles of play. It really brings into light how weird the entire set of cases on Excal was in the first place. As such, ##Vote: Smodge.

Mage case remains basically unchanged.

Kiro: Tangent, but I don't see the problem in not having a vote on anyone yesterday. Was it not obvious that I was highly pro-lynch-Alice at the end?

[Magetastic]

*Sigh* Yes, I get it. I'm bad at mafia.

Moving on.

We certainly got to a double L-2 quickly. And while the Soppy case seems to make some sense, I'd say it's worth discussing more. And I'm wondering why so many people were willing to clear Smodge from his actions yesterday, and yet he's up at L-2 now.

I'm very confused about where to go at Smodge right now, though, given one of Alice's last words (posts).

If I'm stuck with dying, then Smodge dying along with me is probably the best possible course. Works decently, etc, though I'm still slightly puzzled at his MANLINESS. It doesn't make sense for either Scum OR Town to do that...

I can't tell if this is Alice trying to frame Smodge, hoping it gets noticed, or if this is Alice trying to help Smodge somehow. 90% willing to go with the latter and go after Smodge, but...

[Laggy]

Votecount

Rat (0):
Glen (0):
Soppy (3): Kilga, Kiro, Tom
Smodge (3): Soppy, Glen, Rat
Tom (0):
Mage (0):
Kilga (0):
Kiro (0):

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 ends in 40 hours.

[Carthrat]

Smodge wasn't clear, that's why we were tossing him on the bomb in the first place. It was kinda manly of him and I admit to not being quite sure what I should think about him when he stepped up, but after thinking over it critically for a bit, it doesn't really change anything about him, and the rationale he presented for being so willing is pretty off.

Not really worth listening to what Alice had to say at the end at all, really, it's basically impossible to read into dying scum words like that.

[Kiro]

Rat: Saying stuff is one thing, but votes is where you really put the money where your mouth is. When one does and their behavior through the game supports it, then they start looking Townie, not the other way around. Yours wasn't there, Kilga's wasn't there, etc. Just a point of consideration.

---

Checking up on Soppy and Bard: He votes Bard on #169. The Tonfa modkill is announced #193. And yes, I see you do address Bard in #208 again. But if you want to argue the other side, once the modkill was announced, Scum Soppy might have looked suspicious if you tried to get off the Bard bandwagon so you were forced to ride the bus through especially since Bard had picked up his 3rd vote from me. But you didn't have to bother talking about Bard again so yes, I will give you this point and it does reinforce your defense.

One interesting thing though is that Alice does take the time to put a case forward on Soppy twice in Day 3. If Alice and Soppy are indeed a scumpair, they're sure trying to bus each other awkwardly with Alice now highlighting problems with Sopko WHILE both voted for Yoshi who ended up avoiding being the mislynch anyways. That whole sequence is extremely high risk and in retrospect, doesn't look like the best way they as a scumpair could have handled it. Which leads to my next section below:

---

Mage reread: Votes me on gut. Goes after Delta, admittedly just to "metagame one of the few people I know." Goes for Tonfa after Tonfa's vote on him. There's a discussion about Tonfa's "No Lynching D1 is terrible" point that he concedes a little on, but vote remains. In #150, says he's almost willing to switch to Glen over Tonfa, but will wait to see what comes up. In #156, leaves vote on Tonfa after saying if it's between Excal and Tonfa, Tonfa's the one. One important thing to note, this declaration is right at the very end and leaves Tonfa tied with Excal at 5-5 and Tonfa jumps off the Glen wagon to hammer 12 seconds later. With daytalk going on, it's not completely out of the stretch to see a Scum Mage coordinate with a Scum Tonfa to let Mage get that word in before Tonfa hammers. And Tonfa hammers which nobody can really pin anything on him down for since it's arguably self defense while Mage avoids the dilemna of having to do so.

Mage follows Tonfa into Day 2. Then jumps off and goes to Kilga. In #207, Mage I believe is the first one to openly comment about the Tonfa modkill and says "all other cases I'm not quite seeing." For saying you're "scumhunting" in that paragraph, I'm hardly impressed you have no cases, especially when you were commenting about Tonfa and your vote had ceased being on him for awhile. Then in #218 unvotes Kilga, Extensions and then we see him at the end of Day 2 say he would have hammered Bard. He's the only one getting a last word in after Yoshi hammered.

Starts Day 3 going right for Kilga. Neglects to mention the fact that Kilga went for Bard over Alex after Bard's fakeclaim. Unvotes Kilga AGAIN and does not leave a vote anywhere despite his list going Kilga, Yoshi/Alice, Glen. Why the unvote? Then revotes Kilga again in #327. And is noncommittal to everyone in #354 including this statement:

Alice: Interesting approach. Definitely seeing the case, but I'm not seeing enough of one to lynch.

And I guess to top off one thing that's not in his control, Alice also explicitly mentions he sees Mage as nubTown at least 3 times. In #297, #308, and #314. Then Mage drops the Kilga case in #317. If it's just 4 Scum, I could see Alice trying to reinforce the idea that Scum Mage is nubTown. He's not the only one to believe this since Tom, I and whoever else I might have missed have all said the same thing.

Well, no more. I rescind my clear of Mage and on my reread, I think his play is bad AND scummy. Tonfa voting Mage could reasonably be to put it on someone safe and it was a miscalculation. And Mage missed out on bringing any case forward in Day 2 after Tonfa's modkill was announced which is as bad as trying to push a potential mislynch anyways. Sopko still has bleh points, but his defense is decent for all the recent points he's bringing forward. The vote on Bard in Day 2 is a positive, but Mage upon reread has no worthy contributions to Town. Going to go for this one right here, right now.

TL,DR: Fuck me for clearing Mage if he is Scum.

##Unvote Hunter Sopko
##Vote Magetastic

[Carthrat]

Kiro: Yeah, but... bombclaim!

Definately willing to back the case on Mage, his own switches and attacks on Kilga and weird openings remain the scummiest features I've seen from him, although the lack of much active scumhunting and hedging away from dropping votes on people also seems to point in this direction. Today he hasn't actually dropped a vote on anyone either, instead waffling around and bringing up discussion of nightkills; never a fruitful avenue. e.g. if he's 90% sure of smodge, then.. where's the vote? Certainly some hyperbole is okay, but if you're going 'I'm convinced that train's a good bet' then there's only one action to take, and hedging around it is pretty scummy.

Another thing in that last post is irksome; going 'we should discuss the soppy case more' and not saying anything about it is dodgy as heck, and this isn't the first time you've acted in this way; there's a lot of waiting and delaying to think or find more information. Even when it's pointed out to you that you're not taking the initiative, you respond by going 'Ok! ...and gotta go extension plz!'

##Unvote, ##Vote: Mage, think this is a better bet than the other two.

[Magetastic]

@Rat: I'm sorry I'm not conventional, and that I don't like the thought of mislynching. I'm sorry I'm trying to stir discussion and think about things. I apologize profusely for not being someone else and/or throwing out votes on weak suspicions. My bad. I guess I should change right away. (Although I did mean to drop a vote on Smodge. As such, ##Vote Smodge)

@Kiro: D1 - [Sidenote: I voted you because I wanted discussion. And, in a way, it did create discussion.] You honestly believe that I hounded Tonfa and sent that last message as some elaborate plan to keep me alive throughout the game as the last scum? Also, about the 'daytalk between us?' What about daytalk between Soppy and Tonfa (if Soppy's scum) during D2, letting Soppy know Tonfa's trying to get himself modkilled, having him try to bus Bard from the beginning?
D2 - Not... actually sure what was going through my mind at the beginning of D2. So I can't really tell you about then. As for after the Yoshi hammer, I'm pretty sure I'm the only one getting a word in there because 1) I was gone/asleep for that entire affair, and 2) everybody else probably already knew you're not supposed to comment after a hammer. >_>
D3 - A lot of people went for Bard over Alex after Bard's fakeclaim. Does that mean I should automatically assume everyone who did that isn't scum? I considered the possibility of bussing, so sue me. And I unvoted because I needed time to gather my thoughts, and at the time, was equally suspicious of both Yoshi and Alice. (Really, the "why no re-vote" should answer itself. Who was I supposed to vote for? Both of them?) You pointed out something that happened before the Alice debacle ever actually started. At the time, it was a case, but so were a lot of things.
Alice thing - I honestly believe you're reading too much into that. I'm town, I'm a nub, and unless I get lynched, you're not gonna know for certain if that's true or not. So to everyone but scum and me (and the cop if there is one and they've checked me) it's a big case of WIFOM. I could be nubTown, or Alice could have been trying to boost my image.

That any better? Clear anything up for anyone?

Anyways, I'm going to put Smodge below Soppy for now. Rat and Kiro are almost definitely town to me, though. (Kiro just being incredibly helpful and such, and Rat because he's been sticking to his guns and suspecting me the entire game only taking a break when there was no possibility of a lynch on anyone else) Kilga I'm trying to break my (horrible) tunnel-vision on. Glen has dropped off my radar, and Tom is leaning town in my eyes, due to being a lesser Kiro.

Soppy is looking scummier to me, though, by way of pointing out every single known scum in one post. This is also the post where he first accuses Bard. And he mentions a certain level of suspicion on everyone who became a train Days 2 and 3. He also seriously accused Yoshi of me-tooism, and provided Yoshi's jokevote as example. Personally, all of this screams of scummitude. What would be the best way to ensure that, if all else fails, at least one scum will live? To have one scum act completely differently from the others. Which Soppy has been doing. He's been attacking all the scum, which seems a little bit too convenient. (In fact, D2, he's actually harder on Alice than he is D3. D3 being when scum are in danger of being reduced to one left. He also plays a more defensive game in general on D3, and has since been more on the offensive again.) And the scum? They've all been playing rather similar games to each other so far, have they not?

Ugh. Will try to get back to this in the morning if I can get there before deadline. Sadly, I'm waking up and then immediately flying for a good 5+ hours.

[Magetastic]

Forgot to do this.

##Unvote Smodge

##Vote Soppy

[Laggy]

Votecount

Rat (0):
Glen (0):
Soppy (3): Kilga, Kiro, Tom, Mage
Smodge (2): Soppy, Glen, Rat, Mage
Tom (0):
Mage (2): Kiro, Rat
Kilga (0):
Kiro (0):

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 ends in 36 hours.

Rat say who you unvote for plz.

[Hunter Sopko]

Wow. I think that Mage post just sold me on Rat and Kiro's case.

If it wasn't the constant way he's trying to pass himself off as "nubtown", or the way he votes smodge and in the same post puts me over smodge then forgets to change the vote, it's the way that as soon as the train developed on him, he reacts like a hornet's nest being poked despite only being at 3 to lynch and flails wildly.

##Unvote: Smodge
##Vote: Magetastic