Season 55, Week 3 - Tony is the worst Ash Ketchum cosplayer in the world.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Fereydoon (WA5) vs. False Althena (Lunar 2): Electrocutes. Even if Ferey gets off his super move every turn (which seems unlikely but I'd have to think about it) he'll lose this one, since FA's OHKO is bigger and she has better HP, and goes first (and Ferey ignores her defence).
Brahms (VPs) vs Empyrea (DQ8): VP2 Brahms. VP1 I'd vote over Empy, granted. Just not too comfortable with an optional boss the game suggests you shouldn't fight, now that a clearly legal form has appeared.

Heavy

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4): Hmm. Thinking Edge goes first and applies a status... but Ho-oh is going to wake up at some point. The question is, when he wakes up, does he still have a hit to spare? If so, Safeguard -> Recover -> mock. If not, the Safeguard is met with a fatal blow, or healing is met with more status. Need to figure out exactly where I see Edge's damage. Any help here would be appreciated.
Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos): I'm skeptical. Nina4 isn't quite average pdur, I don't think - the def is horrible. Interested to see Snow's calcs. I'll work on some myself later, maybe.
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8): Joshua's evade isn't that great, the Res is horrid, so turn 1 ID when it hits, which is either turn 1 or turn 2.
Tony Eisler (MK) vs Rayquaza (PKMN): Ray is getting 2HKOed, and doesn't win even with a natural 3-2, which he may not get. Yeah, Monkey's entirely correct here.

Middle

Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5): Go away, Ryudo.
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX): No idea how stolen items became legal to so many people. I'd be more accepting of such votes if people could tell me the one enemy from whom the ID item can be stolen! Yeah, one rarish enemy in the final dungeon = hell no.
Nanaki/Red XIII (FF7) vs Dekar (Lufia 2): Was about to vote Dekar here, but then remembered Lunatic High. Dekar can't reasonably avoid a L1, I don't think. So Red gets an opening attack, Dekar triggers Lunatic, Red has evade to dodge one attack and haste, now. There's an.. odd situation here, if they both turtle. Dekar effectively can't heal until Red has attacked him three times (twice + extra turn due to being slower), so never wants to be caught in a doubleturn where the fourth hit will kill. If he sits there, he can theoretically avoid this until haste runs out. Do I let him do this? mmf
Massimo (MMXCM) vs Elaine (S3): Can't believe how much I underrated Massimo. This is a solid enough half and he's going to the finals without breaking a sweat.

Light

Opera Vectra (SO2) vs. Miluda Folles (FFT): Aiel hype works. Sure, whatever.
Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH): If someone wants to analyse this, that'd be cool. I am too lazy. Kneejerk is Leena but that's not how most people are voting, so dunno.
Cinnamon (MMXCM) vs Steena (CC): Will wait for Dhyer.

[Bardiche]

Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos): I'm skeptical. Nina4 isn't quite average pdur, I don't think - the def is horrible. Interested to see Snow's calcs. I'll work on some myself later, maybe.

Nina has an innate 25% resistance to all physical attacks on top of her defense. Stat topic notes she is closer to Cray and Ershin in defense than Ursula.

Godlike

Fereydoon (WA5) vs. False Althena (Lunar 2)
Nate Nanjo (Pers) vs Cidolfas Orlandu (FFT)

Heavy

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4) - Ho-oh gets a Safeguard off. Edge doesn't kill in time.
Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos) - Doesn't get 2HKOd by Kasumi's otherwise 3HKO damage.
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8) - Lyon goes first, MTs, and I don't think Joshua can OHKO her, whereas Lyon 2HKOs and doesn't suffer counters.
Tony Eisler (MK) vs Rayquaza (PKMN)

Middle

Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5)
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX) - Think she can beat Rikku even without sleep? I allow Elly's sleep though, so it's a moot point.
Nanaki/Red XIII (FF7) vs Dekar (Lufia 2) - Smashes.
Massimo (MMXCM) vs Elaine (S3) - oh. uh. what.

Light

Opera Vectra (SO2) vs. Miluda Folles (FFT) - Did Miluda have Weapon Break?
Cinnamon (MMXCM) vs Steena (CC)
Relm Arrowny (FF6) vs Colette Brunel (ToS)

[VySaika]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF3) vs. Elc (AtL:C) - Maybe I'm missing something, but does Elc go first and just L3 Invincible -> Mind Buster x2 to kill all of Ryu's AP? I know he's still got Bonebreak, but without a dragon form to use it in, I don't think it OHKOs, and Elc can start up the Divide cheese. Since everyone else is voting the other way I'm now REALLY unsure here, but this is how it loooks to go to me from a glance at the stat topics.
Fereydoon (WA5) vs. False Althena (Lunar 2)
Nate Nanjo (Pers) vs Cidolfas Orlandu (FFT) - Aegis Sheild mocks Nate's dire need to hit status turn 1.
Brahms (VPs) vs Empyrea (DQ8) - VP1 Brahms takes it.

Heavy

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4) - Decent Ho-Oh respect, kneejerking that he gets a Safeguard off and goes to work.
Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos) - Not entirely sure here. I think Nina's phys resistance lets her survive 2 Shrikes.
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8) - One sided. Next.
Tony Eisler (MK) vs Rayquaza (PKMN) - See the Elf.

Middle

Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5) - Man does the G2 damage curve ever fail.
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX) - Need to brush up on Rikku's status blocking options.
Nanaki/Red XIII (FF7) vs Dekar (Lufia 2) - Uh, gonna kneejerk letting him wait out Lunatic High, sure.
Massimo (MMXCM) vs Elaine (S3) - SPLAT

Light

Opera Vectra (SO2) vs. Miluda Folles (FFT) - Not thinking about this one too much.
Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH) - I allow storebought elements of the character's color.
Cinnamon (MMXCM) vs Steena (CC) - See above, except I'm not sure if this lets Steena win. Will need to check.
Relm Arrowny (FF6) vs Colette Brunel (ToS) - not much to say.

[Monkeyfinger]

Gate, Ryu's armor makes him immune to MP damage.

[Pyro]

Gate: Ryu 3 has an armor that protects against MP damage.

Granted, that goes away if he enters a non-status immune dragon form, but he has a cheap (?) one in Tiamat that he should be able to use to outlast Elc's MP. Things get messier if this isn't the case.

[VySaika]

Ah, is that the Force Armor down in the alt setups?

[Pyro]

Correct.

[superaielman]

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4): Hmm. Thinking Edge goes first and applies a status... but Ho-oh is going to wake up at some point. The question is, when he wakes up, does he still have a hit to spare? If so, Safeguard -> Recover -> mock. If not, the Safeguard is met with a fatal blow, or healing is met with more status. Need to figure out exactly where I see Edge's damage. Any help here would be appreciated.

I'd be surprised if he does. IIRC Edge gets 3~ turns to attack before the target wakes up, and Ho-Oh doesn't have the raw HP to cruise through that.

Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH): If someone wants to analyse this, that'd be cool. I am too lazy. Kneejerk is Leena but that's not how most people are voting, so dunno.

The fight is a complete slaughter. Zhuzhen halves Leena's tech damage (and Leena's physical chaining hits are pretty terrible to start with, she is way below average damage and has one tech that does damage), he hits a weakness and 2HKOs her with ease with Flames of Rudo. Leena's pretty scrubby even for a CC light.

Note for Gate: Storebought elements change nothing here. Zhuzhen still a 2HKO and nothing Leena has will break it, with her elemental damage walled off and elemental eating her AP up.

Nanaki/Red XIII (FF7) vs Dekar (Lufia 2): Was about to vote Dekar here, but then remembered Lunatic High. Dekar can't reasonably avoid a L1, I don't think. So Red gets an opening attack, Dekar triggers Lunatic, Red has evade to dodge one attack and haste, now. There's an.. odd situation here, if they both turtle. Dekar effectively can't heal until Red has attacked him three times (twice + extra turn due to being slower), so never wants to be caught in a doubleturn where the fourth hit will kill. If he sits there, he can theoretically avoid this until haste runs out. Do I let him do this? mmf

I don't think Red 3HKOs Dekar unless you completely ignore limits in the average, and then it's pretty close if he does.  I don't think Red can win in that situation regardless.

[Dhyerwolf]

Relm 5HKOs average. That's with Man Eater's damage bonus against humans, in case you're wondering.

The average that most people use for ToS doesn't even include the Last Fencer/Pow Hammer DX weapons boost to humans, so I don't think that Man eater bonuses in the average should be held against Relm here, at the very least (I also don't think front row should be default but thats another story).

In fairness, include the man-eater style bonuses in both games when considering the people who use the Maneaters.

[Pyro]

Dhyer, all I was saying was that you can't include the damage vs. humans in the FF6 average and then ignore it in the ToS average. I'm not sure what you are talking about there.

Personally I don't consider it in either game's average.

[Hunter Sopko]

Godlike

Fereydoon (WA5) vs. False Althena (Lunar 2)- As much as I am rooting for Fereydoon, there's no way I can in good conscience vote on him here. FA outtanks him and outdamages him too much.

Heavy

Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos)- Tossup... does Kasumi benefit at all from opting for her speed equips, or would she run the risk of getting flat OHKO'd?
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8)- Boo Lyon.

Middle

Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5)- Chat decided this one.
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX)

Light

Opera Vectra (SO2) vs. Miluda Folles (FFT)- Kneejerk
Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH)- This one's kind of a duh.

[Pyro]

Tossup... does Kasumi benefit at all from opting for her speed equips, or would she run the risk of getting flat OHKO'd?

BoF4 damage:

6.Nina (1500)
Average: 2600

An OHKO is not a problem.

[Monkeyfinger]

Fumas do 4,400 damage in both non-DS versions. With everything factored in, average is a bit over 6,000 in FF4o and a bit under 5,500 in FF4a.

If you go by FF4o, Edge barely 4HKOs average. Ho-Oh should reduce that to a 5HKO, he has HP.

If you go by FF4a, Edge has a snowball's chance in hell of going first because of the new PCs and their speed boosting equips that raise the average by like 10.

If you go by FF4DS, Edge has about 2x average damage, but no status and his MDef is actually bad rather than just looking bad. Ho-oh takes 1 hit from that form then OHKOs.

I think only his original form has a shot. If he's particularly close to a 4HKO with fumas, that opening sleep-inducing physical might push it over the edge.

I'm inclined to go by DS these days, so... yeah.

[Hunter Sopko]

Tossup... does Kasumi benefit at all from opting for her speed equips, or would she run the risk of getting flat OHKO'd?

BoF4 damage:

6.Nina (1500)
Average: 2600

An OHKO is not a problem.

Well, thats one half of it. The question then becomes does she gain a tangible benefit from it? Does this let her slip a third turn in?

[Dhyerwolf]

Edge is like 125% speed in the FF4a version (effective 75 speed to 60 average). Gen 2 Ho'oh is +0.78 SD, so not even faster via 25% SDs.

[Monkeyfinger]

4a average is that low? sure thing bro.

...Wait, right, Cid.

So that would come down to how much you respect FF4 ATB speed at all, then. Decent shot for edge though. But ultimately irrelevant to me because 4a is the only version I haven't played.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos): I'm skeptical. Nina4 isn't quite average pdur, I don't think - the def is horrible. Interested to see Snow's calcs. I'll work on some myself later, maybe.

* Jo'ou Ranbu works on some raw HP looks, and checks the defense.

Meep's default setup has Nina at 223 defense to an average of 250. Game-worst, definitely, but, bizarrely, I expected a far wider curve than what I see here (although the defense in practice easily could have a bigger effect than the curve suggests. Nina4 has 89% average defense, don't know exactly how this translates). However, I can't do all that much without knowing somewhat precise effects of pdef in BoF4: applying the physical resistance directly to the HP mod and assuming average pdef, Nina4 ends up slightly above average pdur.

-If- the practical effect of defense in the curve is only very slightly higher, or roughly the same, or slightly below what the numbers suggest, Kasumi still misses the 2HKO on both games - 41% damage to average in S2, deals 45%-46% damage to that theoretical durability after all factors are applied. S1 Kasumi deals 41.5% to average, so roughly the same spread. This assumes Nina's defenses makes her take hits 11% worse than average, which obviously can be innacurate, but, as long as Nina4's effective pdur is -above- 1.21, she avoids the 2HKO safely. I might add that Kasumi in Suikoden 2 doesn't even ignore evade and is about average accuracy after Shrike's accuracy penalty applies, so she starts ramming into Nina4's 25% evade. Don't think S2 Shrike has Falcon's crit properties either (this being potentially relevant because I believe you vote on S2 Suikoers from the first two games in the series besides Tir). If you know how BoF4 defense works, I'll be glad to see you work it out, because the match very much hinges on this.

[Dark Holy Elf]

One point of BoF4 defence = 10 points of damage taken. It's a very potent stat. Roughly, I think it should cancel out the physical resistance (though it may fall a bit short), and leave Nina with just her HP as her pdur, or maybe something a bit better. Still, Kasumi's damage is worse than I thought, so maybe the kneejerk was wrong.

Super: I was most certainly assuming Red 4HKOs. If he -were- to 3HKO, the match would be a slaughter in his favour: Attack -> Sled Fang, Attack before Dekar can 2HKO.

[Monkeyfinger]

Idly, what statuses can Massimo inflict with that column? It doesn't matter this week but it might next.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

* Jo'ou Ranbu actually recalcs off that information.

... ahahahahaha wow, this is horrible. You're right, Nina's pdur is roughly her HP, and that gets her 2HKOed by average physicals (1.33x pdur, roughly). Yeah no, I'm changing my vote here.

[Sir Donald 3.2]

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4): Hmm. Thinking Edge goes first and applies a status... but Ho-oh is going to wake up at some point. The question is, when he wakes up, does he still have a hit to spare? If so, Safeguard -> Recover -> mock. If not, the Safeguard is met with a fatal blow, or healing is met with more status. Need to figure out exactly where I see Edge's damage. Any help here would be appreciated.

Additionally, I'd like to have the Status percentages for CatClaw verified.  The "Hit to Spare" point becomes moot if Edge doesn't have a high enough status to make the 2nd hit stick the status even when the 1st hit does.  (My old standard was 68% for Hit 1, 95% for Hits 1 AND 2 (as opposed to a hit on 1, miss on 2), 98% for Always Hit.  I'm actually taking Stats now, so my opinion could be subject to adjustment.)

If Edge is using throwing weapons that aren't restricted, then Pressure is useless vs another .38 SD in speed (which I take to be an extra 3% being Turn-based vs Active time...), which buys enough time to prevent the double from occurring before Ho-oh can both Recover and put up Safeguard.

EDIT:  Monkey:  Per RPGClassics, it's Blind, Virus, Bind, and Beserk.  By my recollection, they're added in that order too (i.e. Beserk is only tested if you get all 4 rows charged in the Status Column, Blind takes effect with 1, etc.  Should test if I have the time... Projects and all...)

[superaielman]

I tested the Catclaws. I'm very sure on the accuracy. It rarely misses (stat topic sites it around 90%, that's close enough to right.) Edge has very high accuracy/hits which is what the status on the claws run off of.

Re: Red- Any reason why he wouldn't just go for the Gladius and try to delay for a Holy Energy? That may well not trigger an L1 limit on the first hit and Berserker/holy energy can be used to chip.

[Tide]

Might as well...

Heavy
Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4) - Think Ho-oh has to OHKO here in order to win and I'm pretty sure he doesn't
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8) - At worst, Lyon busts out Vermillion Sky. Josh can't counter MT, but seriously don't think it matters here since I don't think he doubles and yeah his M.def is bad.
Tony Eisler (MK) vs Rayquaza (PKMN) - Monkey's pretty spot on for this one yeah. Ray's a blitz cannon (his match last week with Cristo kinda showed that). Tony doesn't get 2HKO'd and that is that.

Middle
Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5) - Snow, Super, Sage and I hashed this out one night in chat. It basically came down to Miakis being faster and Ryudo lacking enough SP to put consistent pressure on Miakis. Ryudo gets owned by Shield Rune's 45% healing. Awesome.
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX) - Allowing Sleep wards I can see and probably makes this closer (Sleep proof is a no go for me). Although kneejerk is Elly manages to keep Sleep applied consistently through light attack spamming and then attacking with Ethers on turns when Rikku is asleep.

Light
Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH) - Super's analysis works for me.
Cinnamon (MMXCM) vs Steena (CC) - I...think. Unless Steena manages to heal lock with her basic physical chain. If she does...would depend on Cinnamon evade and whether or not she could do it consistently.

[Luther Lansfeld]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF3) vs. Elc (AtL:C)
Fereydoon (WA5) vs. False Althena (Lunar 2)
Nate Nanjo (Pers) vs Cidolfas Orlandu (FFT)
Brahms (VPs) vs Empyrea (DQ8)- Never gonna give you up~~

Heavy

Ho-oh (Pokemon) vs. Edward "Edge" Geraldine (FF4)- You people and your allowing weapons that leave with a party member who actually uses them.
Nina Wyndia (BoF4) vs. Kasumi (Suikos)- Never gonna let you down~~
Lyon (S5) vs Joshua (FE8)- Never gonna tell a lie~~
Tony Eisler (MK) vs Rayquaza (PKMN)- And hurt you~~!

Middle

Ryudo (G2) vs. Miakis (S5)- Ryudo's a joke~
Elhaym van Houten (XG) vs. Rikku (FFX)
Nanaki/Red XIII (FF7) vs Dekar (Lufia 2)
Massimo (MMXCM) vs Elaine (S3)

Light

Opera Vectra (SO2) vs. Miluda Folles (FFT)
Leena (CC) vs. Zhuzhen Liu (SH)
Cinnamon (MMXCM) vs Steena (CC)
Relm Arrowny (FF6) vs Colette Brunel (ToS)

[superaielman]

Catclaws are dropped from a random enemy.