Season 56, Week 1 - More liquor. More Penguin. More reason to facepalm.

[ThePiggyman]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias)
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2)
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos)

Heavy:

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG)
Vayne Aurelius (MK) vs. Maya Amano (Persona 2)
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5)
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG)

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8)
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7)
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7)
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT)

Light:

Genis Sage (ToS) vs. Aisha (OB)
Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC)
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC)
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias): ... good lord.
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2): Goes first, does her multiturning thing and kills with either damage or ID.
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX): Gilbert is immune to delay and isn't being 2HKOed, and 4-3s thanks to Quick Hits, and the last one is a double. That's five shots of 2HKO damage. Do I see Jecht taking that? No, no I do not.
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos): Paraspoiled. Left side sweep!

Heavy:

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG): Oh look, a fighter. If Pamela doesn't block Sleep Elly has a ghost (haha) of an argument but even then probably not, her magic is too bad.
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5): Faster, solidly 2HKOs with her physical at worst.
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG): Better tier of Heavy.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7): He should have enough HP to not be 2HKOed. Assuming he doesn't OHKO himself.
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7): I think.
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT): LFT form for Low Godlike. More seriously... I don't think he's OHKOed (shield should ensure that), he's faster, and he has Counter.

Light:

Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC): Smurfcha.
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC): Irenes sucks.
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM): There's that physical spoiling.

[Monkeyfinger]

Jecht beats Gilbert because he's durable enough to take at least 5 hits, 6 at that so he gets a 4th turn.

Weigraf beats grandmaster because both 2HKO and he's faster.

Those are the only matches that seem close enough to comment on.

[Sei]

Godlike:

Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2) - Kills Millenia before she moves.
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos) - Parasol reduces Tir to his physicals, and Hide (And Quick, and four Air Sceens to pump her evade to 100% if Ceci wants to play it really safe) removes even that.

Heavy:

Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5) - Who goes first wins. Lyon's faster.
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG) - Thinking Boomy's speed isn't good enough to prevent Billy getting an instant-double after Goddess Call. Billy just takes pot-shots whenever he laps Boomy from there.

Middle:

Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7) - Strong enough to blow past all of Vincent's Limits for me (Vincent's L1 is slow). That... pretty much seals things.
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Wiegraf goes first and I don't disrespect Wiegraf's HP enough to consider him getting OHKOed by GM.

Light:

Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM) - Parry makes Randi sad

[Nitori]

Godlike:

Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2)
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos) - Critical OHKO

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8)
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7)
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7)
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias) - Middles tend to do really great against high Godlikes.
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2) - ^_________^ as a stat works its magic.
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX) - I'm not sure if Jecht even avoids a 2HKO with a stock double. Given how Gilbert doesn't even get 2HKOed himself...
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos) - lolasol

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG) - Man, no.
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5) - EDIT: Lyon has -no- Earth resistance outside natural 6.9% reduction (lol). So, going by a 828 average for S3 (Dhyer's average is lower than what I'm going by, by the way), Sasarai deals 89% PC HP to average after factoring in the godly 6.9% resist with Land of Eternity. Lyon has 86% PC HP (92% without skills, but see the next point as for why this is irrelevant) and 181 MDef to a 229 MDef average - and S5 MDef is pretty huge a stat. Yeah no, this is a pretty easy OHKO for him. Lyon needs to OHKO him or die, and while she even has an outside chance of doing so with hax (or of IDing, but the Magic Repel alone makes this problematic, let alone Sasarai's MDef), the odds are not on her side. Looks pretty clear-cut to me.
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG) - Yeah.

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8) - God, -fuck this shit-.
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7) - I think he OHKOs. Ursula doesn't quite 2HKO.
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7) - I think Vincent gets outslugged even if Oswin triggers a limit. The damage just fails too hard and Vincent isn't even average speed, I think.
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Sure, counter hype. Alternatively, zomg lft form hyep.

Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC) - Gourmetry.
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC) - Irenes.
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM) - Light physicals.

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias)
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2)
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos)

Heavy:

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG)
Vayne Aurelius (MK) vs. Maya Amano (Persona 2)
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5)- OHKO, although this is pretty close to higher S3 damage averages
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG)

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8)- No form makes this close
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7)
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7)
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT)

Light:

Genis Sage (ToS) vs. Aisha (OB)
Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC)
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC)- Doubles and such. Now my internet is being evil, but other way if she doesn't double (and pretty clear either way, I'd think).
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM)

[Monkeyfinger]

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias) - Middles tend to do really great against high Godlikes.

Under what interp is Gades a middle? His L2 endgame form is a light, if a good one, and everywhere else he fits into one of the high divisions.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

The one where he fights against Guy/Dekar/Maxim in the midgame and doles out immensely scary evadable 3HKO physicals? I do tend to take pretty high levels against L2 bosses in general, so even his speed isn't really that awesome. That form does have an actual case for Heavy (I consider him at least a fairly strong Middle, it's still a fast 3HKO off okay durability), but requires more kneejerk respect than I'd give him, especially off Gades' more pressing failings (bad damage type and absolutely no variety).

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias) - Fou-Lu.  Not much of a challenge, despite Gades being relatively awesome.
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2) - Not sure what is meant by the ^_________^ stat, as it doesn't exist in MMXCM.  Doesn't need it, though, whatever it is.  And you people yell at me for making stuff up!
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX) - Jecht.  Way too durable.
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos) - Cecilia...yeah

Heavy:

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG) - Pamela.  Go away, Elly you whore.
Vayne Aurelius (MK) vs. Maya Amano (Persona 2) - ...Vayne.  Gah.
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5) - Mmm...did magical resilience have any bearing on status in Suikoden?  Definitely?  Having different rune options that are storebought makes this interesting.
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG) - Boomerang.  Needs upgraded to Godlike.

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8) - Seifer.  Boss form, gah.  Noah owns the PC form.
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7) - Ursula.
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7) - Vincent.  Status, healing, whatever you want.
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Master.  0 defense on Wiegraf makes him cry.

Light:

Genis Sage (ToS) vs. Aisha (OB) - Aisha is weak to lightning (12% or so Super says).  She hits magical defenses (which INT plays a factor in for ToS, I'm 95% certain).  Indignation hits a weakness (5500 ToS damage or so...above average no matter what damage average you use...hell, Indignation NORMALLY is slightly above).  Genis switches his armour (no INT boost) to a Holy Cloak for 1% regen...which is certainly probably enough here.  His HP aren't the best, but the combination of slight regen and hitting a weakness are probably enough.  Obviously changes depending on speed respect of magic, and the area hitting of it, but definitely arguable.
Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC) - Orcha!
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC) - Irenes!
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM) - Randi.

[James_xeno]

I still have to do all of the numbers, but at a glance, i'm not sure how Irenes doesn't win this fight.

Is there something I don't see here?

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Garcia scrapes a 2HKO to average durability and has counters. Irenes sorta has to trigger those counters, has crappy damage (and she can't properly double her entire offense) and is below average on both HP and defense. She kinda has to one-turn to win, and with CC accuracy woes+her own shoddy damage hitting a few poor waves here, she won't pull it off so easily.

[Taishyr]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias)
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2)
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos)

Heavy:

Vayne Aurelius (MK) vs. Maya Amano (Persona 2) - Decently confident on this (note: analysis presumes 2.5x PCHP, for me this is slaughter). Both I think are close to the same speed, especially if you allow Maya stat customization but even if you just take a P2:IS build like OK did. Vayne's damage is ~1.5x PCHP with Overrealm, Maya w/ Dance of Protection up is about 1.6-1.7x to physicals. Attempting to chip means Maya doesn't even need her full-healing, she can just constantly spam Mediarama/Affectionate Prayer (Maia Custom should be more durable to physicals, so Mediarama) to keep her HP up until Vayne tries for the Overrealm, which she just tanks. I can't figure out a method in which Vayne wins, honestly.

She slaughters if you allow full stat choice as well, to note; buffing Vit/Mag/Agi to 80 or so (which she can both afford to do and should do, her weapon choice blows in the DL due to sharing with Katsuya so the physical's near unsalvageable, and Luc won't make a whit of difference in her matches) makes her really bloody tanky to physicals outside of Artemis as well (should have cast-best HP, above average phys defense), so.

Middle:

Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7) - If someone actually mathed this the other way I'd listen. For now...
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT)

Light:

Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC)
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC)
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM)

[Ultradude]

Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7): Vincent damage gives him all the time in the world to work around that limit.

*Roots for Sasarai for Heavy champ.*

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2) - Not sure what is meant by the ^_________^ stat, as it doesn't exist in MMXCM.  Doesn't need it, though, whatever it is.  And you people yell at me for making stuff up!

You need more Elfboy-posted speed stat spreads in your life!

I -might- have exaggerated the size of the smiley's mouth a slight bit, though.

Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5) - Mmm...did magical resilience have any bearing on status in Suikoden?  Definitely?  Having different rune options that are storebought makes this interesting.

One of Magic or MDef definitely affect magical status odds in S5, and Sasarai is very good at both. In addition to that, Sasarai's A+ Repel score also lowers those odds further. The match gets a bit strange with storebought Runes, though - turns into a status war between Sasarai and Lyon, mainly, and I think Sas gets to win it first due to the winning statuses on his side being faster and more accurate. -If- you don't allow Yellow Scarves for him, though (and allow them for Lyon), she equips a Water Rune, Silent Lakes as the first WoS misses, everything else Sasarai can do to shut it down being slower than Lyon, and coasts her way to victory.

[074]

Middle:

Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7) - Vincent's pre-limit damage?  It sucks.  That much is for certain.  Especially against Oswin's 2x average FE DEF and 120% HP.  And even the limit damage isn't that good.  Even worse: Oswin goes first until Galian Beast comes out.  And Vincent's got worst PDur.  It amounts to a 2HKO...that wonderfully chips around a limit.  Really, unless you factor in row, Vincent is screwed, plain and simple.

Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - This, on the other hand?  lol.  Shield+Counter+ITE Holy Sword stacks way too much in Wiegraf's favor.

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs. Gades (Lufias)
Marino (MMXCM) vs. Millenia (G2)
Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) vs. Tir McDohl (Suikos)

Heavy:

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG)
Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5)- Think Sas wins a defensive war.
Boomerang (WA) vs. Billy Lee Black (XG)    

Middle:

Noah (PS) vs. Seifer Almasy (FF8)- Noah sucks. Seifer isn't 2HKOed with either his PC or boss form and is probably faster.
Max (SF1) vs. Ursula (FE7)- Better.
Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7)- Broke this down with Tonfa. Vincent ignores counters and isn't doubled, but his damage is pathetic to start with and going against Oswin damage. His L3/4 limits aren't happening and are worthless, one of his limits kills his speed to the point that he doesn't double Oswin and the other one has no damage.
Grand Master (FF1) vs. Wiegraf Folles (FFT)- Yeah, Wiegraf's good against fighters.

Light:

Gobi (BoF1) vs. Orcha (CC)
Garcia (FE8) vs. Irenes (CC)- Doubled doesn't matter when you have awful STR/durability like Irenes.
Thomas (S3) vs. Randi (SoM)  
 

Genis Sage (ToS) vs. Aisha (OB) - Aisha is weak to lightning (12% or so Super says).  She hits magical defenses (which INT plays a factor in for ToS, I'm 95% certain).  Indignation hits a weakness (5500 ToS damage or so...above average no matter what damage average you use...hell, Indignation NORMALLY is slightly above).  Genis switches his armour (no INT boost) to a Holy Cloak for 1% regen...which is certainly probably enough here.  His HP aren't the best, but the combination of slight regen and hitting a weakness are probably enough.  Obviously changes depending on speed respect of magic, and the area hitting of it, but definitely arguable.

A: No, Ankh attack is based off STR so it doesn't hit MDef. She's also massively magically evasive so Genis is having issues hitting. Haha, Genis being faster than a fast PC. Aisha is 2HKOing Genis's below average HP to start with.'

Aisha's extremely hard to beat in light if you're a mage. You need to have ITE or block holy damage.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Sasarai (S3) vs. Lyon (S5) - EDIT: Lyon has -no- Earth resistance outside natural 6.9% reduction (lol). So, going by a 828 average for S3 (Dhyer's average is lower than what I'm going by, by the way), Sasarai deals 89% PC HP to average after factoring in the godly 6.9% resist with Land of Eternity. Lyon has 86% PC HP (92% without skills, but see the next point as for why this is irrelevant) and 181 MDef to a 229 MDef average - and S5 MDef is pretty huge a stat. Yeah no, this is a pretty easy OHKO for him. Lyon needs to OHKO him or die, and while she even has an outside chance of doing so with hax (or of IDing, but the Magic Repel alone makes this problematic, let alone Sasarai's MDef), the odds are not on her side. Looks pretty clear-cut to me.

The reason to use skill-less averages is because Lyon herself can just start twinking her HP if you use the skill'd ones. Granted, she can get less HP than average via said twinking, so this isn't really helping her, but does help her if you compare her with no HP boosts to an average that includes them, which is just stupid.

So yeah, 92% PCHP... but that MDef is bad. On the other hand, Magic is at least as potent in reducing magic damage via resist rate... but then Lyon isn't as high above average in that as I thought. So yeah, starting to lean Sasarai here, though there's a bunch of hax that could push this in Lyon's favour so I'm not certain.

[Bardiche]

Sasarai does about ~0.909 PCHP to average, if I am doing this right... (Sasarai's damage expressed as a percentage against the killpoint in the stat topic)

Lyon needs to at least take magic as almost average to make that really matter, since she can get 0.92 HP if I understand this correctly? Her... Mdef is 189 against a 220 average without skills, 229 WITH skills. Can she boost her Mdef by ~40 with skills while also keeping her HP buffed up?

--

What are the "bunch of hax", Dark Holy Elf? I'm personally having a tough time seeing Lyon live through Land of Eternity, but my Sasarai respect is skyhigh, so...

--

Going entirely from the stat topic, and I may be wrong here because the DL maths aren't entirely clear to me sooooo I'm just winging it with the numbers, taking defensive stat potency as valuing equally much in all games...

But Sasarai has 0.877 (0.88) HP taken against the averages without Luc/Yuber/Sarah. Otherwise that is 0.89.

His defense is 0.964 taken against the first average, 0.976 against the second. So he's just barely not average defense. Now, I don't know how potent S3 defense is, but he can get 242 against a 251 or 248 average.

Lyon on the other hand has 0.92 HP when being generous and holding her against a non-skill-influenced HP average. However, if I do that, I will discard any skill-influenced stats for her, so her Mdef is 0.823. She innately rejects earth with 6.4% proficiency.

Now, Sasarai damage is 0.909, as opposed to Lyon's 0.413 physicals.

Sasarai's damage seems to still be 1.00 PCHP against Lyon's godly Mdef+Earth defense. That is, using the method:

0.909 x 0.936, then that result x 1.177. It yields ~1.00 PCHP damage against Lyon, so there's really no way I see her as knocking that down to 0.91 or lower without skills available to her.

Lyon on the other hand does 0.413 x 1.036 damage against the average Sasarai doesn't like, which amplifies her damage to 0.428. That means she'll do around ~0.85 PCHP against Sasarai in two rounds? So she misses the 2HKO, if only barely.

Even MAG won't save her against a second LoE.

//EDIT: I think her phydmg is also amplified by the All-out Strike skill. If you let her skilltwink to survive a single Land of Eternity, arguably her damage falls enough to definitely make her 3HKO Sasarai... I forget what All-out Strike does completely, though! It's been a while.

[SnowFire]

Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Where is the Gilbert immune to Delay hype coming from?  Pretty sure you can bust his stock, at least. Seems like the match revolves around that.

Pamela Ibis (MK) vs. Elly van Houten (XG)
No vote due to no MK, but does Pamela block sleep / have a killer turn 1 status?  If not, it's hard to see an argument for her here.  It was established last season that Elly's physical chain is something more like "slap a 100% sleep effect on as a bonus" that has nothing to do with whether the attacks hit or do damage or anything, and I don't think Elly's Ethers wake up XG sleep.  (Lest I be accused of being an Elly fanboy, I'd also point out that this means she shouldn't get hype for "7 different attempts to apply Sleep!" as far as cutting through sleep resistance).

Oswin (FE7) vs. Vincent Valentine (FF7)
Vincent can definitely trigger his limit here - just charge up to Oswin and provoke a counter at an inconvenient time, then immediately limit.  I'd see Guns as being both range 1 & 2 (they hit both "distant" and normal enemies in FF7) so this is no problem.  In fact, for those who allow FF7 characters to get lvl. 3 & 4 limits, he might even be able to possibly get those if the math adds up right?  I don't, which is probably doom for Vincent as the only way he wins this anyway is his lvl. 3's Nightmare status attack.  I actually would vote Vincent if he could consistently spam doubled Beast Flare (Galian Beast is fast, so it's definitely doubling) but uh he doesn't, and every physical attack earns him a painful counter.  Berserkitude loses Vincent another match.

And Light barely missed out on Gobi vs. Irenes.  Oh, well.

[Pyro]

Pamela has a headgear armor that protects against sleep, the Yubana cover? That seals Elly's fate even if you see her busting through the physical immunity.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Gilbert (SH3) vs. Jecht (FFX)
Where is the Gilbert immune to Delay hype coming from?  Pretty sure you can bust his stock, at least. Seems like the match revolves around that.

Stock =/= turn delay. There are delay-like effects in SH3 that don't involve Stock and Gilbert is not vulnerable to them.

[superaielman]

Vincent's L3/4 doesn't heal him so they are pretty damn useless in the DL.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Pyro: Not that it matters this week, but Elly's status does indeed land even if her attack fails or misses. It is cheap like that.

Snowfire: SH2 and SH3 explicitly have a "Delay" effect which is identical to FFX's, and Gilbert is immune to it. You can see this in his enemy library profile. There's really no room for argument here (unlike the normal argument for Jecht delaying bosses which is at least existent even if it is bad!).

Bard: The "hax" refers to either Lyon killing outright with a physical or simply "Resisting" Land of Eternity, which is a 50% reduction to magic damage (the rate is determined by the Magic stat). Basically if she gets a good physical chain OR resists she wins. However the combined odds of both likely aren't enough for her to win here. It's just possible.

[Bardiche]

If she "resists" the first Land of Eternity, doesn't Sasarai just bust out the second? As I demonstrated, going off of All-out Strike'd physical damage and ignoring Sasarai's Repel from ever kicking in (since I'm not sure what level/rate he can get on it...) she just barely misses the 2HKO going off of the average physical damage. (which factors in chains and criticals, which I am not sure but think All-Out Strike affects...)

She needs both to win, really. Both Resist AND a good physical chain that lets her 2HKO Sasarai. OHKOing Sasarai just isn't going to happen, I think. Have a tough time seeing her do more than twice her average damage. And if she doesn't Resist, Sasarai just lols and Land of Eternitys her into OHKO.

In fact...
Physical damage: 333
Crits: 1x- 68%, 2x- 30%, 3x- 2% (Average 1.34x)
Swings: 1- 72%, 2- 22%, 3- 5.5% (Average 1.33)

Her odds of adding a third extra swing are just phenomenally low, and I think Suikoden V extra strikes are weaker than the initial? Not sure, but even assuming they do full damage she'd need to get a 22% chance on her first turn to not even get double her average because she also needs to crit with each strike.

I have personally almost never seen Resist kick in in-game, but ymmv on that... yeah, I just wanted to see what you meant about Lyon possibly winning since it seemed clear cut to me that Sasarai wins, thanks to Lyon MDef.

What no i'm not a sasarai fan what are you talking about