Season 56, Week 2 - Princess lesbianism in Middle? Welp, just another week.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC)
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC)

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3)
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC)
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX)

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA)
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig)
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT)

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1)
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC)
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs) - Diekbeck can waste a lot of time with his whoring. But I don't really think he can eke past the combo of Calm Mind+Rest spamming - even assuming Rob Mind works, it's going to -utterly fail at life- against Kyogre MDef, particularly once it gets buffed, and Diek is going to put up Invincible stat unless he wants to get blown up by Waterspout. Equipping an elemental magic circuit for hitting the lightning weakness is going to both smack his stats into the gutter and accomplish nothing about Kyogre getting his buffing up. At that point, he's just running himself out after ten million years and a Hydro Pump makes him explode. And I don't think I see Rob Mind really hitting Pokémon attack charges, but this can be argued until the end of the world.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC) - No lol ohko for Ryu. Birdie, however...
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - His preferred type of fight.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC) - Outslugs... I think.

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3) - Boss Kanon is pretty well-suited for this fight. Her vs. Tosh should be more interesting.
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC) - ahahahahaha mirage in heavy
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6) - Gaus it up.
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX) - Wakka is 101% average speed on his first turn. No matter how you scale Alys as a temp unless you do something really funky, she's bound to be faster than him and hit the match-winning button first - she manages to remain close to Rika at speed consistently throughout the game.

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA) - Natalia is very ill-suited to avoid the 2HKO. She needs to cast the expensive full-healing spell to hold up to Lyon's damage, and she eats a counter and explodes if she goes on the offense.
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig) - God. Margarete goes first, though, and if I see her ID hitting turn three on average, she has the fight. I have no idea how much resistance Lance has to status, though, and I sorta feel tempted to kneejerk against him here, since it'd take pretty badass resistance to get him to outrace the effective 3HKO.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT) - EDIT: Sure thing, saving me from thinking. I know random variance exists, but blargh.

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC) - Just say no.
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1) - Llew is just so bad.
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC) - ... jesus christ this fails.

[Ultradude]

Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA)

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs) - Diekbeck.  Don't see Kyogre stopping his awesome robot magicksz
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC) - Royce.  Ryu2 has a 0 attack stat, which means Firebird lasts forever. 
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Genevieve.  Deals insane damage - Mewtwo does not stand a chance.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC) - Miguel.  His physicals smash her awful defense!

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3) - Kanon.  Dur, boss form.
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC) - Mirage.  MP-kills Tosh.
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6) - Cloud.  Yeah...I've begun to allow full special ability bars as long as they can come into a fight with them charged normally.
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX) - Wakka.  ID-blocking armguards (what was it...Deathproof Armguard?) can only be worn by him, so...

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA) - Natalia.  ACTIVATES GUARDIAN TO PROTECT HERSELF FROM HIS COUNTERS, FIRES ARROWS FROM OUTSIDE OF HIS RANGE.  BOWGIRL WINS THE DAY
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2) - Ivan.  Now you're playing with pedophilia...
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig) - Margarete. 
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT) - Mara.  Shin Megami Tensei form smashes.

Light

Racially Insensitive Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC) - Racially Insensitive Wizard.  Solt's DL ranking is less than or equal to 3.00.  Even if that doesn't work, Hadouken does it.
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1) - Tim.  Cuter.
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC) - Chiepoo.  Fucking Catlike of the Universe, bitches.
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5) - Chuck.  Hotter by far.  Has a better television show too

[superaielman]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs)- Diek's status magic sucked and he otherwise has issues here even with his remarkable MP resources.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC)
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)- I'd buy the physical 2HKOing here if Mewtwo wasn't going first and 2HKOing himself.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC)

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3)- No boss KAnon.
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX)- Damn it Wakka.

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA)- Think she can heal till an MA.
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)- Opera can't wall Ivan's status.
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig)- Lance is highly resistant to status (INT is a direct status save in Brig and he gets a 5% reduction to all status on top of it) and Margie's best damage is resisted here.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT)- Robo can't halve the bang series of spells, which still 2HKO average. He's toast.

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)- It's Solt.
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1)- Fuck this.
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC)- I always kneejerk against Lunar temps, Leo excepted.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT)- Robo can't halve the bang series of spells, which still 2HKO average. He's toast.

Bang spells aren't associable with Fire? Also, the amount of damage they do -really- need calced, since Mara's close to being OHKOed by an average damage physical (that if she even -does- avoid it. 58% PC HP+game-worst defense in a game where defense is a really potent stat? Eeeeeeeew). If Robo can muster somewhat above average damage with Uzzi Punch, odds are good he's pulling it off, that pdur is just egregious.

[superaielman]

Nope, DQ4 has different elements for those spells. I'm very sure of this and noted it in the stat topic. Mara has a hell of a lot of chipping options available; avoiding a dangerous crisis arm shouldn't be hard. Her only real concern is Robo maybe OHKOing back, but I don't think he can do that.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Yeah, that concern I'm -very- worried about (the defense just looks very low on the curve and it's being backed up by HP that gives her sub-Yulie pdur by itself). I'd like Terra Arm's damage numbers too, but I'll check up both DQ stat topics for cross-checking again and ask around in chat once I get the chance to.

EDIT: Nope, no Bang spells numbers on the stat topics as far as I can see, but old compiled data. It happens. Granted, I can trust that they deal at least -average- damage and that's enough for a 2HKO on Robo, but I really need precise values here. Goddamned numbers game.

[superaielman]

Explodlet does 150~ish damage.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Okay, so I did a bunch of calcing and it just hit me that the match now -really- hinges on Robo's Uzzi Punch damage with his best non-Crisis Arm weapon -and- where exactly Mara's pdur falls. I'm highly kneejerking something around the vicinity of "takes hits like Raja", which is what makes the fight so weird.

[hinode]

Having a better read on DQ4's defense stat effects wouldn't hurt either. God, this is a nightmare of a match.

The universal DQ formula for physical damage before randomness and modifiers is Attack/2 - Defense/4, so 4 points of defense reduce the damage you take by 1. Personally I prefer to scale the effects of defense to reflect the fact that, in-game, you tend to be fighting either groups of enemies or a boss who doubleacts, and DQ defense stat is always pretty important unlike some games, but an appropriate method would depend on whether you see DQ defense as subtractive in the DL or convert it to multiplication somehow.

Aside from that, I'd disagree with the idea that Kaboom/Explodet counts as not-Fire elemental myself. In every DQ game that I'm aware of except 5, every piece of PC equipment that resists the Sizzle and Frizzle (or Blaze and Firebal) lines of spells resists the Bang line of spells as well. This marks all three pretty clearly as Fire elemental in my eyes. Enemy resistance can differ between all three lines of spells for no discernable reason, so it's not a convincing argument for Bang spells alone to be counted separately as not-Fire in the DL.

[Pyro]

Enemy resistance can differ between all three lines of spells for no discernable reason, so it's not a convincing argument for Bang spells alone to be counted separately as not-Fire in the DL.

The fact that Maya can use Explodet to damage enemies that resist fire doesn't matter as to whether or not they are different elements?

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs)
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC): Bird
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN): Cat. Tanks whatever she throws out and just cruises.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC): She is faster, which seals this.

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3): I will think about the boss form.
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC): No thinking required.
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6): I'm not sure exactly what Rage wins this (Nightshade?) but I'm sure one of them does.
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX): Well this is straightforward.

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA): Need to know if she can get an OL spamming her healing or not. Edit: Hell no. And she has no knockdown techs to avoid a counter.
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig): SUre. Super's reasoning works for me.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT): 4DS isn't OHKO'd, I don't think. Kaboom does its work from there.

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1): Tim is actually a GOOD Light. Something Llewelyn will never be able to appreciate.
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC): Gwyn's just bad.
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5): Goes first and 2HKOs.

[hinode]

There is no such thing as a monster that "resists Fire" in DQ4. There are monsters that resist Sizzle, resist Frizzle, that Bang, and all possible permutations of the three. Four, if you count the fire elemental breaths from Kapuff and Sparkie. Unless you're going to argue that Sizzle is the One True Fire type and Fizzle isn't really Fire elemental despite the animation obviously looking like it is, or vice versa.

[Bardiche]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC) - I guess!
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Light Screen + SP.Def + Recover? Sure.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC) - FA respect = lol

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3)
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6) - Ehhhhh.

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA) - I love Natalia but uhm.
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1) - It's so sad that Llewelyn's only shade of damage is turn 6... and he doesn't even force Tim to heal until then.
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC) - Rather than kneejerk it, I should check Gwyn's SP/damage!
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5) - Chuck's accuracy is one point above Dean's, but GOD did he miss. Meanwhile Josephine has good EVA. EDIT: Gonna test how notable such a difference'd be!

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC): Flamebird.
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN): Speed and buffs.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC): Better in most stats.

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3): PC Kanon.
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6): Charms him.
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX): Yeah, probably faster.

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA): Natalia does something non-fatal, gets countered and dies.
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig): I dunno.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT): Bullshit to the Bang series not being Fire. As hinode notes, any equip that nails one of the 3 fire magic elements nails the other two.

Also, Snow, damage randomness exists. Granted, this just means I assume Crisis is 4.5 after the first hit, and randomly fluctuates from there (in a long enough fight, it hits 8-9) and I don't think it's relevant here, but it's an important distinction and you shouldn't calculate Crisis figures exactly for that reason.

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC): uhhhh
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1): Way to make Tim look like a Heavy, Llew. THE RPGP WAS RIGHT!
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC): Gwyn fails.
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5): Uhhh. Chuck's accuracy is bad, but bad enough to lose to Josephine? Fail.

[Bardiche]

Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5): Uhhh. Chuck's accuracy is bad, but bad enough to lose to Josephine? Fail.

Just did a quick calc... if you take only the stats with no skills involved, Josephine has 237 against a 194,3 (194,9 without Sialeeds) average. Hmmm... not sure how heavy Suiko5 evasion stat is. Chuck feels horribly inaccurate on my playthroughs, but maybe I should check it out.

I'll run some tests with Logg, Richard, twinked!Prince (for evasion near the calc'd average) and Josephine. (Logg has like, 110 eva. Fail.)

[Taishyr]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC) - One-shots. (You should have seen this coming from me.)
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Faster, Genevieve can't OHKO. Match.
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC) - I'd actually be interested in someone mathing this out, but for now also leaning FA.

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3) - Nnnn ummmm... ngh.  For now.
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC) - Don't know AtL2 Tosh.
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX)

Middle

Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2) - Welcome to Middle, Opera.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT) - Inclined to say DQ series elemental nonsense gets overridden by CT's rather universal element grouping blocks. Robo can figure how to take a hit, should OHKO in return.

Light
 
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC) - It's Solt.
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1)
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC) - Not enough Gwyn respect, but it's close.

[Dark Holy Elf]

To elaborate on why I strongly kneejerk that Bang is Fire:

-CT fire element includes a lot of explicitly explosive attacks, such as Napalm, Mega Bomb, Area Bomb, etc. The Fire 2 animation itself is a bunch of explosions.
-DQ4 fire (all three of them) is one of the most resisted elements in-game in any RPG I've ever played, so suggesting it should be treated as essentially unresistable by games outside the DQ series makes me want to bang my head against a wall.

Additionally, I'm not certain it matters. Kaboom is probably a pretty weak 2HKO, so Robo will be able to use Cure Beam quite a few times until he can pull a OHKO. Don't think a doubleturn happens first. Would need to calc Maya's pdur here, though. (And her "Mara" form just loses.)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs)- Diek's slow ass MP draining game versus the hemorrage of his MP. Let's see...he'd take out 364 MP before he's run out of it himself. Should be able to zap Kyogre's overall stock.
Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC)
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC)

Heavy

Kanon (WA2) vs Kevin (SD3)
Mirage Koas (SO3) vs Tosh (AtLC)
Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)
Alys Brangwin (PS4) vs Wakka (FFX)

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA)- Unless OLs are triggered by damage taken and not just by the action of healing.
Ivan (GS) vs Opera Vectra (SO2)
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig)- Lance has 20%? 25% Status Resist? Well, not even 25% is enough to help since Margie will still be faster and knock him him in 3 turns anyways.
Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT)

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)- This doesn't deserve a vote.
Tim Rhymeless (WA2) vs Llewelyn (VP1)
Chiepoo (S4) vs Gwyn (Lunar:EBC)
Josephine (S5) vs Chuck Preston (WA5)

[BaconForTheSoul]

Godlike

Ryu (BoF2) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC)- Outtanks one attack
Genevieve (VP1) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)- 2HKO or buffing game
Miguel (CC) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC)- Not Miguel in Godlike

Heavy


Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6)- Gau doesn't have a way to get past limit fighters... IF they are status immune.  Cloud is not.


Middle

Mara/Manya (DQ4) vs Robo (CT)- Robo resists ftw

Light

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Solt (CC)- It's Solt vs 99% of light.

[Monkeyfinger]

As usual for these days, only commenting on ones that look worthy of arguing.

Godlike

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs): Bullshit to any sort of MP attack hitting normal-type charges (or any type tied to physical damage.) At the very least this means he can't hit rest and body slam.

Middle

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA): Could nat stall for an overlimit here?
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Lance (Brig): Gets the ID off in time. Lance is pretty slow to me.

[Dhyerwolf]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs): Bullshit to any sort of MP attack hitting normal-type charges (or any type tied to physical damage.) At the very least this means he can't hit rest and body slam.

MP Busting gets a host of non-elemental attacks out of the way in ATL 2 (Certainly gets any healing spells out of the game). Body Slam (or whatever his most basic damage move is) I could see the argument for not being hit, but I don't see what would safeguard Rest.

[Clear Tranquil]

Know it's not quite the same thing/current scenario but SO3 MP attacks hit MP tied to physical skills just fine (Aiming Device. Radiation Bots, etc cost MP to use)

[Drifloon]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Diekbeck (AtLs) - Lol

Cloud Strife (FF7) vs Gau (FF6) - Not that I know much about Rage, but I'd be surprised if there was one that didn't work.

Lyon (FE8) vs Natalia Luzu Kimlasca-Lanvaldear (TotA) - Comparing different systems like this is kind of silly, but I can't see Natalia's healing being enough to recover from Naglfar, nor can I see her getting the kill before Lyon does.

[DjinnAndTonic]

I personally am amused by the argument of 'Lyon can't MOVE, Natalia just shoots him from outside of his range until Overlimit->Mystic Arte smash!'

I initially kneejerked against it... but the more I think about it, the more I think I agree with it. Especially considering Lyon's Naglfar is only a 1-2 range weapon and Natalia's standard physical is notably longer range than most attacks in TotA and spammable. Alternately, Taunt to full. It sounds like such an OK-style interp, but Lyon's weird like that.