Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Marino (MMXCM) - This is pointless.
Gilbert (SH3) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA) - Man, Gilbert is faster -and- 2HKOs with a physical. Don't think Ceci can bust past this even with Quick, and I think that blowing stock gives him a comfortable win once he laps.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Royce (Lunar:SSSC) - Okay. Royce is over four deviations below average. She shipwrecks into the low-end TB cap to me without question (which is 55%, so no TB slug gets immediately doubled by average speed). Meanwhile, Kyogre is 0.75 SDs above average, which is 118% speed to me. Since being above 110% speed means you double 55% average speed... um yeah, 2HKO+double to me. Good night and good luck.
Mewtwo (PKMN) vs False Althena (Lunar:EBC) - I have to decide if I see Mewtwo getting enough amnesias to make False Althena status fail in time here.
Sasarai (S3) vs Billy Lee Black (XG) - Think Billy juuuuuuuust avoids the OHKO from LoE even without Earth Shield, which makes this fight very open-and-shut. If Sas tries to heal-lock with Earthquake instead, Goddess Eyes sinks the thought into failure instead, so.
Kanon (WA2) vs Tosh (AtLC) - Huh, interesting match. On the other hand, I think Kanon's opening shot is just too much for Monji Slash to stop -even if she's vulnerable to debuffs-: Tosh is pretty frail on both fronts, and techs bypassed counters in AtL2 - so, I'd see her Gats attack avoiding counters as well. Good too, since counter+Tosh physical -would- be a kill.
Gau (FF6) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4) - Death.
Seifer Almasy (FF8) vs Max (SF1) - Meh.
Oswin (FE7) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Okay, doing some crunching, with WTA, Oswin's accuracy with Javelins is 122~. That's somewhat below average for Hit, and that's honestly not doing any favors to him. Oswin, with WTA factored in, deals 36.9% to average a pop with a Jav - without, it's 35%~. So, we have a conundrum here - for starters, if you see Wiegraf's durability as above 73% PC HP, he might not even need to dodge once (needs some leniency on the status, though?). I don't think I do, though. If the first counter whiffs, though, Os needs to stick with the Javelin, which heightens the odds of him missing. And if he whiffs -anywhere-, I think he sorta doesn't manage. And the odds for missing... feel a bit slanted for Wiegraf if his effective evade is at least 25%. Yeah, this is really bizarre. Dunno where I lean right now.
Margarete Zelle (SH1) vs Robo (CT) - Failure.
Aisha (OB) vs Orcha (CC) - Christ, Aisha being a badass Light honestly shocks me.
Garcia (FE8) vs Thomas (S3) - I keep having the image of Thomas parrying that gigantic axe with the tiny sword and it cracks me up.
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Tim Rhymeless (WA2) - BW deservingly reaches the semis. The universe has failed forever.
