Welp, I'm not any happier about my replacement being into LyLo any more than you folks are, but here I am. Also, apologies for the lack of flavor, but we really don't have any wiggle room to screw around here. I'm going to launch directly into LyLo analysis, and then I'm going to analyze the rest of the thread to narrow down the possibilities.
I'm VT. Everyone else but Gilgamesh has now claimed. If Gumshoe is town, then Gilgamesh is either scum or a power role, and Axem is scum. If Axem is town, then Oddjob and Smithers are town, and Gumshoe is scum. Note that we can't draw any other definite conclusions from one of them being scum - it's quite possible that they're both scum and this is a sacrificial gambit, which would indicate that they thought we were on the track to lynching scum today anyway.
Gilgamesh's claim will be very important here - even in an 8:3 game, I wouldn't expect to see a Cop, a Doc, a Tracker, plus another role, all town. Scum would have to have some strong power roles of their own to balance that, and I haven't seen any indication of any scum power roles at all so far, so Occam's razor says at least one of them is scum. Depending on Gilgamesh's claim, the game balance argument alone might indicate that two among them are scum. The game balance argument also pretty much rules out a Gumshoe-Gilgamesh-Axem team, since I don't think the town would be given only a Doc and a Ghost Writer in an 8:3 game. Objectively speaking, these criteria limit the possible scum trios to the following:
Axem-Dick-Gilga, Axem-Dick-Guild, Axem-Dick-Oddjob, Axem-Dick-Smithers, Axem-Dick-Whim, Axem-Gilga-Guild
Axem-Gilga-Oddjob, Axem-Gilga-Smithers, Axem-Gilga-Whim, Axem-Guild-Oddjob, Axem-Guild-Smithers, Axem-Guild-Whim
Axem-Oddjob-Smithers, Axem-Oddjob-Whim, Axem-Smithers-Whim, Dick-Gilga-Guild, Dick-Gilga-Whim, Dick-Guild-Whim
Speaking from my own perspective, I can see that the only possible scumteam that doesn't have Axem is the 3G one. Gilga's claim will narrow down even more of the possibilities, depending on the details.
(Ninja'd: And I just now realize that I hadn't considered the possibility of a Godfather. Bleh. Oh well, then keep in mind that Smithers or Oddjob might be scum with Axem town, but that the likelihood is quite small when considering the unlikelihood of a Godfather in an 8:3 game.)
But that's just cold analysis, which anyone could come up with. I'm going to try and weight these possibilities with a reread while we wait for Gilgamesh to show up and claim, but until then, some more subjective impressions of this LyLo: Firstly, Axem's claim does look good in that he chose two living players as his investigative results. In my experience, scum making a fakeclaim are more likely to pick dead players as investigations, rather than risk either tying themselves to a scumbuddy or protecting a townie from a lynch depending on who they claim as cleared. He also claimed early in the day, which indicates that if he's scum, then he was planning to do so from the start - again, only likely if he saw scum getting lynched today anyway and wanted to pre-empt the case.
I also get bad vibes from Smithers trying to claim that I have a meta clear. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but it looks like he's trying to use a really weak point to lull the replacer into a false sense of security so that the replacer will say something stupid. Ditto for Guildenstern going along with it. Gotcha games in LyLo are very much a scummy thing.
Okay, now for my re-read. For the record, at this point, Axem's claim looks plausible enough that I'm willing to consider the 3G team instead of one of the many Axem ones, but I'm not ruling either of them out. I'm thinking that it'd be smartest to lynch the G that's most likely to be on a team with Axem, then see if Axem survives 'till tomorrow and what he claims his investigation as if so. So if I had to place a vote right now, it'd probably be on Guildenstern. An Axem-Guildenstern-Smithers team wouldn't surprise me.
