Season 56, Week 4 - Margarete fights the urge to write yaoific like little else.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG)
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT)
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4)

[Monkeyfinger]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1): Cecilia's auto-life is really expensive and it's the only way she can stay alive vs. dark wave. quick gets dispelled.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN): RBY wins, FRLG loses. Pretty open and shut.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT): Argue why if you think otherwise, because this is pretty close.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1) - loldispel claims a victim. He actually strains her resources too much, which is impressive.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Sure.

Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4) - EDIT: RIGHT, Alys gets two shots of Death. Regardless, boss Kanon for me, shredding ensues.

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Kills in two attacks on average (damage-wise, unquestionably, only evade can tilt this). Wiegraf can't say the same without unusual luck, and I already gave him the benefit of doubt in hax last week. Although the hax possibilities are significant enough to say that Wiegraf winning isn't unreasonable, so I don't really begrudge votes going his way for that.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1) - A lot closer than it should be, since Margie's damage is MT and avoids counters. However, I think I give Lyon's MDef enough credit here to avoid the two-rounding. Could go either way.

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3) - Vaguely thinking Thomas evade is a bit too much, and he's accurate -and- hitting Aisha's bad pdur to boot.
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4) - EDIT: Chiepoo hype? so fucking in

[superaielman]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT)- Max 2HKOs, has enough durability to mock Wiegraf damage.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)-  Thomas is 3HKOing thanks to Aisha physical durability. Her stuff is all evadable physical so yeah, splat.
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4)

[Ultradude]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN): Unless Body Slam actually works here...

Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)

[Dark Holy Elf]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1): Actually Cecilia has an argument against Astral. Tyrant should just OHKO her though. Chat is mentioning something about Auto-Life into Dualcast but meh.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN): Well this is obvious. Far greater speed and a better buff seal it.

Heavy:

Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4): Simple test of "what form of Kanon do you vote on?" I don't think this match is remotely close, just in opposite directions depending on that interp.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT): Not feeling the love for Wiegraf's durability today.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1): May well OHKO, certainly doesn't need to.

Light:

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4): Ridiculously close. Basically, it's borderline if you see average mult of FF1 enemy physicals being 3. I think that's about where I see it. For reference, this is about the mult Knight needs to cut physicals in half, so if you see him doing that or better, you should vote for Chiepoo, and if you see him doing less than that, you should vote for BW. Won't mind who wins this.

[Paltheos]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

If Kyogre puts all of its strength into offense, Hydro Pump manages anywhere from 208 to 246 damage against Mewtwo, but that's before Amnesia.

If Kyogre tries the defensive game - Mewtwo's boosting move is twice as fast, RBY mechanics give Mewtwo a 25.4% critical rate and Psychic has a 30% chance of dropping one of Kyogre's boosts, and even if Kyogre could boost all the way up (which it absolutely can't), a weak Water Pulse would be the only attack it could respond with that could challenge Recover.

Kyogre could try for an instant kill with Sheer Cold but that probably won't work either. In RBY (and only RBY), instant kill moves fail if the the target is faster than the user. Kyogre could try Body Slam or something and pray for paralysis, but the odds of all the right things happening together are too slim. Kyogre gets in at most 3 moves. It has better odds going for a freeze instant-win, but that's also too unlikely to seriously consider.

[Hunter Sopko]

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1) - Yeeaaaaah. Just not seeing it on Ceci's end.

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG) - Kneejerk.
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)- I usually vote on their preferred form for the fight so... bye Alys.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - See everyone else.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1) - Coinflip

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3) - See Super.
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4) - I agree with NEB, but having just played FF1 I'm leaning in favor of Black Wizard's interp here.

[Glen Veil]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)-Can't vote, but just want to point out that WAo autolife does bring you back to life, but you lose all your FP, so it's impossible for her to autolife herself until a dual cast.  Not sure if it's relevant, but I remember reading in a FAQ that each point of FP does boos a WAo characters defensive stats by .4%, not sure if that helps her any.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)- Boss form

[DjinnAndTonic]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1) - But Ceci makes it closer than I was expecting.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG) - Good match, they could both swing low Godlike. I wanna say that Billy's speed is too much for Maya to get around.
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4) - ID whoring works.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - I like that Max is winning a match, but to me, Wiegraf is getting formchain-spaceflea hype.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1) - Sad that he beat Ivan, though.

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3) - Wind Rune, get up to Middle, Thomas!
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4) - ID.

[OblivionKnight]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1) - Fou-Lu.  Blah.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Mewtwo.

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG) - Maya.  Status hype works for me.
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4) - Kanon.  Easy stuff.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT) - Max.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1) - Lyon.  Seriously, these are joke matches ;_;

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3) - Thomas.  Yay runes.
Racially Insensitive Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4) - Chiepoo is < a 3.00 DL rank ;_: 

[Drifloon]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Mewtwo outspeeds, has higher base SpAtk, and can hit weakness.

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4) - ID

[alanna82]

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)- force Mewtwo to the special split and the other games mechanics. (since RBY's mechanics are the only different ones, its easier to compare pokemon this way). So he doesnt have game best Special Def for me. Kyogre's awesome attack is special. FRLG's Mewtwo's special def isnt that good. Sure there is Amnesia, but It wastes a turn he could use to attack.

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG)
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)- PC Kanon

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT)


Light:

Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4)

[Dhyerwolf]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG)- Maia Custom 2 turn IDs Billy and Maya is faster. Billy can cast Haste and just miss insta-doubling.
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT)
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)- Depends on where Lyon's damage and durability falls (Or how much he cuts off averages). If he OHKOs or nulls averages about he wins. If he says reduces averages by 75% and doesn't OHKO, that's about where his HP might sink him thanks to two doubled acted MT spells.

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4)

[Yoshiken]

Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)- force Mewtwo to the special split and the other games mechanics. (since RBY's mechanics are the only different ones, its easier to compare pokemon this way). So he doesnt have game best Special Def for me. Kyogre's awesome attack is special. FRLG's Mewtwo's special def isnt that good. Sure there is Amnesia, but It wastes a turn he could use to attack.

There is Amnesia with Recovers in-between and better speed, though. If he starts with an Amnesia, then Recovers until Kyogre's big damage is out of PP (Recover has 20 PP, IIRC? Should be enough to barely outstall the best Kyogre damage, at least), he should be able to kill before Kyogre can. And Kyogre's Rest isn't going to do it any favours here.

[Dark Holy Elf]

FRLG Mewtwo also has Pressure, so Kyogre's damage faces serious resource issues. All he can really hope to do is Calm Mind against Mewtwo to buff his SA while Mewtwo can't, but if he does that, Mewtwo will hit him so that he lacks full HP Waterspout (anything less than full HP isn't going to scare Mewtwo much). When it comes to killing, Mewtwo can just use Psych Up to copy Kyogre's SA boosts and blast Kyogre's face in with superior speed, healing, and resources. Really unconvinced by the case for Kyogre here, against either form. Sheer Cold, maybe... just it only has 3 shots and is 30% hit rate at best. Body Slam? Paralysis could give him the edge he needs in a long fight, but again he still needs to hit with it multiple times to accomplish anything.

I see Mewtwo running Amnesia / Recover / Psych Up / Psychic, for the record (in FRLG. RBY just runs Amnesia / Psychic / nothing else maters this fight is a joke).

[James_xeno]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1)
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN) - Still thinking about this.


Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG) - DB's past her poor physical durability and physical weakness. Edit: I should point out that hama (maia custom) is only like ~30% accuracy, NOT 50%!
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4)


Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT)
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1)


Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4)

[Taishyr]

Hama's accuracy... is reliant mainly on level, from my tests; what's given in the FAQ is the base chance before any other modifiers, which -is- 32% or so. However, ingame at the end it tends toward 40%. I don't think I agree with 50% either, but even 40% might be enough to win before Billy can build up a fatal chain (don't know XG, as warning, don't know how fast he can build it up). And her physical durability isn't bad at all, esp. assuming custom stat growth. But hey.

[Pyro]

Just wanted to say this because it was bugging me:

If Margarete uses MT damage to avoid Lyon's counters, she should not double at all, effectively making her damage output half of what it would otherwise be.

[Pyro]

Godlike:

Fou-Lu (BoF4) vs Cecilia Lyne Adelhyde (WA1): If she had infinite MP she could do this.
Kyogre (PKMN) vs Mewtwo (PKMN)

Heavy:

Maya Amano (Pers2) vs Billy Lee Black (XG)
Kanon (WA2) vs Alys Brangwin (PS4): I need to think if I take her as boss form for the DL. There is some reason for it plotwise, since she is seriously injured after her last boss fight.

Middle:

Max (SF1) vs Wiegraf Folles (FFT): I assume he OHKOs? Not sure.
Lyon (FE8) vs Margarete Zelle (SH1): See above. And Lyon should OHKO without being OHKO'd (though maybe I'm wrong about that. Then again maybe he just goes first.)

Light:

Aisha (OB) vs Thomas (S3)
Black Wizard (FF1) vs Chiepoo (S4): Not entirely sure, no.

[Dhyerwolf]

Just wanted to say this because it was bugging me:

If Margarete uses MT damage to avoid Lyon's counters, she should not double at all, effectively making her damage output half of what it would otherwise be.

I'm assuming this is because the FE 10 MT attacks do too? The problem then would be...those can all activate outside of Lyon's range anyways?

[Pyro]

MT attacks attacks do not focus on one unit, so of course they wouldn't benefit from doubling. In order for an attacker to double a single target, they have to be attacking that target *explicitly*. If they do so they should trigger FE counters in the normal fashion. Of course if you assume an MT attack is against an explicit target this logic leads you to conclude that an MT attack can hit an entire team twice if one slow FE'r is in that team. Or maybe that only one part of the MT attack happens twice while the rest doesn't. Both conclusions are wonky.

MT attacks should not trigger doubles. They ought not trigger counters either. Straightforward and painless. If you want to say that Margarete has some range game where she can peg Lyon while he never gets to attack her then you can make that argument. I'm just saying that you shouldn't claim she doubles and ignores counters at the same because she uses an MT attack.

[Bardiche]

Kyogre could try Body Slam or something and pray for paralysis, but the odds of all the right things happening together are too slim

That's what I thought, too. But then I was hit by Pikachu's Thunderbolt and Paralysed. Not really spectacular in itself, but after four Double Teams and two Defogs, a CRITICAL hit Thunderbolt and Paralysis? I call cheats.

Still. Pokémon paralysis. Derp. One in four or so?

Godlike:

>_> Godlike. Fou and Mew.

Heavy:

Billy, not sure about Kanon/Alys due to What Is Reasonable.

Middle:

Max.

Light:

Thomas and Chiepoo. Think I buy Chiepoo winning that match right thur.

[Ultradude]

Body Slam is a 30% paralyze rate. The big thing about Paralysis, though, is that it lowers you to 1/4 of your speed.

[Bardiche]

It only works the turn after you get paralysed, though, that speed drop.