Author Topic: Clue Mafia - Game Over  (Read 28631 times)

Meeplelard

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #175 on: February 27, 2008, 09:14:57 PM »
Alright, we avoided LYLO this round, that's good.  It'd be better if we can finish the game this round by finding the last scum!

Soppy's death seems pretty logical to me; of all of us, he's the one who pretty much had no one on his case, yet, was still being an active participant who wasn't being Wishy Washy at the same time (it was this factor that got Yakko call out Dhyer in Random Mafia; granted, in that game, we had 3 confirmed Towns, so it was choose 1 in 4, and we had 3 chances to do it; here we have 2 chances out of 5 before we lose, unless my math is off?), so yeah, don't really see getting much out of that.

I'm still suspicious of Kilga at this moment, mind.  Why? Cause going with the "He was one of the first on Alex's case and main person arguing with him!" feels WIFOM excuse.  The logic would state that yes, this should clear Kilga...but at the same time, it could be a clever scumploy to try and remove it.  So why would they actively try to get each other lynched?

Possibly cause they thought that unless they could get someone else (which was probably me the previous day, I'd think, and...it'd be a bit too obvious if they both went after me.  Alex supported me, Kilga's been against me, so this would further support my reason), one of them is going down (most likely Alex.) A gambit, so they could remove suspicion of one by having him help at taking down the other.

I'd need to go back and see if my vote on Kilga came first, of Alex's; I think it was mine.  I also don't know who voted on Alex first between him or QR.   Not sure it'd say anything, as it could have been "early vote, then kept on that person once actual excuses came out, since removing it then would seem suspicious."

Unfortunately, I have a sneaking feeling I'm going down by the end of tonight, though, I can't see why Scum would go after me; if anything, I'd think my actions here are just making Scum happy cause it moved suspicion away from them (...except its also part of what got Alex lynched, so...really, I have no clue.)

Anyway, would like to hear from Gate's fresh opinions.  If nothing else, Alex going down with QR leaving and being replaced does kind of fit in an odd way; she was pretty tunnel visioning on him, if by subtle or direct methods, and now that he's gone...yeah, this isn't really saying much, just a weird work of fate in the mix!

Oh, I should note that while Rat hammering Alex does look good, that too can't be used to dismiss him completely in the future; again, as Rat himself said, it seemed like Alex was doomed as not only were there 3 votes on him (granted, one of them was QR and if given more time, Gate *MAY* have changed that to reflect his own opinions, but whose to say now?) but two people willing to hammer him, so its possible it was Hammer in hopes to remove suspicion, knowing his partner was inevitably going down?

...yeah, at this point, I think I'm just tossing WIFOM after WIFOM, and not largely getting anywhere.
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VySaika

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #176 on: February 27, 2008, 10:29:41 PM »
Alrighty, here's my semi confused breakdown on my current suspects:

Meeple: Honestly I'm finding him the most suspicious right now based almost entirely on his interactions with Alex. Mainly how he seems to have been defending Alex, and vice versa. I'm not finding any point where Meep and Alex actually got into it.

On the other claw, Scum Alex is a big proponent of yelling "STOP AGREEING WITH ME" at his scumbuddies. So I think that were meep to be his scumbuddy, Alex likley would have found something to attack about him and done so, just to make sure that connections like Alex->Meeple and vice versa wouldn't be so easy to form.

On the other other claw, the connection of Alex->Meeple is still there, and I know from personal experience that disagreeing with one's scumbuddies isn't as easy as it sounds. The dreaded groupthink is really easy to fall into. My WIFOMesque logic here is putting points both for and against meep due to alex's flip, and there are more against then for.

El Cid: This is mostly based on the fact that I just read through the thread and can't really recall a single serious stance that Cid took. I'm getting flashbacks to him in Touhou Mafia here. Can I back this feeling up with anything serious? Not right this moment, but my next post will be me combing back through Cid specifically to see how he looks when I'm focusing instead of trying to assimilate this whole thing in one sitting.

Nobody else feels as bad as these two right now. Also not going to put down a vote yet, as I want to take a closer look at Cid before I decide who I find worse right now.
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Sierra

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 2
« Reply #177 on: February 27, 2008, 10:49:42 PM »
Damn, it feels good to be right about something in this game for once.

Soppy NK does make some sense, as it tells us relatively little. Almost no one made a case against him, for one thing, and he spent a fair amount of his posts criticizing Alex (now dead and revealed as scum) and Kilga (who looks pretty good to me, at least).

However...had he lived to today, he's one of the people I would've been focusing on. Without him, I'm pretty much back to Meeple. The other three (Rat, Kilga, QR) were on Alex's case for various reasons well before it looked like Alex was a viable lynch candidate. Someone may suggest the possibility that one player was smokescreening here, and I'll allow that that's not beyond reason. But I'd mainly only consider it for QR/Gate, who was out for much of day one and could conceivably have picked up on the criticisms of Alex enough to see joining in as a way to gain townie cred. And I still think that's pretty unlikely. I will say that if any one of Rat/Kilga/QR turns out to be scum, they did a helluva job manufacturing arguments with scumbuddy Alex.

So...Meeple again. I think his interaction with Alex, or relative lack thereof, is very telling in light of the latter being revealed as scum. It was quite rare that either criticized the other, and Meeple echoing Alex's original attack on Rat makes a lot more sense as scum joining in on a scumbuddy's attack without taking time to read in greater detail.

So, I'm pretty comfortable making this accusation now:

##Vote: Meeple. In the study, with the knife.

As an aside, I do hope that Alex's last stand there was artificial melodrama employed in desperation. It would suck if he genuinely stopped playing.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Gate. Don't think it changes anything, though.

Kilgamayan

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #178 on: February 28, 2008, 12:51:25 AM »
Woohoo scum flip. Might as well put this out there now, since I imagine everyone is expecting it.

##Vote: Meeple

I'm still suspicious of Kilga at this moment, mind.  Why? Cause going with the "He was one of the first on Alex's case and main person arguing with him!" feels WIFOM excuse.  The logic would state that yes, this should clear Kilga...but at the same time, it could be a clever scumploy to try and remove it.  So why would they actively try to get each other lynched?

Possibly cause they thought that unless they could get someone else (which was probably me the previous day, I'd think, and...it'd be a bit too obvious if they both went after me.  Alex supported me, Kilga's been against me, so this would further support my reason), one of them is going down (most likely Alex.) A gambit, so they could remove suspicion of one by having him help at taking down the other.

You do realize the magnitude of the Xanatos Gambit you are proposing here, right? A scum pairing of Alex and myself would mean the entirety of yesterday was staged, not to mention the lower part of Day 1. It would mean that both of us would be willing to intentionally put forth mistakes (such as equating gameplay mistakes to grammar mistakes or forgetting Rat's metagame) in the interest of...cutting our numbers in half.

I may be crazy, but I'm not that crazy.


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Carthrat

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #179 on: February 28, 2008, 01:41:37 AM »
With Alex flipped as scum, the associative tells between him and Meeple are too strong to ignore. However, his arguments against Kilga hold some merit.

Firstly, there's actually Kilga's response to Meeple. He's presenting the whole idea of him and Alex taking on each other as ludicrous. By Kilga's own admission yesterday, he was just as willing to vote for Meeple as he was Alex, and there most certainly was a strong case against him. That the argument was staged could hold some merit, especially given that he made a factual error himself wrt to us sharing a similar view on Alex. It also doesn't help that the basis of that mistake comes from a relatively small thing- that Meeple used the word 'we'- and in the same page he says this-

Alex, you forgot to mention your strawman argument here in your list of stuff you've done to be worth attacking:

Everyone makes the occasional stupid mistake.  See this for the people who were there for it, though I know Kilga wasn't.  A *pattern* of stupid mistakes, or one ridiculously massive one like making a case against a dead player, is scummy because it indicates a player is grossly not paying attention.  A single mistake where someone reverses two words, or types the wrong name once?  Scum or town can do that.  Brainfarts are equal opportunity.

I realize that no one before now has specifically said "that's a strawman argument" but I know I at the very least pointed out how it was a bad example here.

-which read to me in general as being critical of nitpicking when he did some not long afterwards. (It's a bit of a convoluted loop- he's criticising Alex for blowing up the 'mistake' theory/argument/thing into really anal about small mistakes.)

Meeple: For all that, Meeple is still my greatest suspect today. Part of it comes from him finding Alex suspicious so late in the day when there was no hint of it before, or as he says, 'I think one of Kilga and Alex are scum.' This felt like he as acknowledging the concept of Alex being scum, but he didn't really try to follow that line of reasoning; in fact, I can't see him actually bringing up a strong point against Alex at all.

I would say that the normal line of reasoning, here, is that if you have two people arguing and you think one of them has flaws and the other generally doesn't, you don't necessarily need to include the other one as a candidate for suspicion; and yet Meeple seemed to do just that, despite not having any stated case against him. Now, Alex did flip scum- but that doesn't excuse Meeple for not qualifying his theory.

I feel it's also worth noting that in Meeple's post that originally stated 'one of Meeple and Kilga is scum', that's.. well, that's what he said. But in his following post, where I questioned why he seemed to be suspicious, he said "It seems like someone related to Alex is scum"... and promptly came out with a List o' people. This echoes Alex posting his "I am suspicious of half the game" post to a degree.

Gate: It is imperative that you make a post that doesn't consist almost entirely of WIFOMs. As a replacement, you're almost by definition harder to read than someone who's been in the game the whole time. The fact that QRs posting was sporadric in general doesn't help matters any.
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VySaika

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #180 on: February 28, 2008, 02:11:19 AM »
Alright, El Cid...

Day 1: early vote on Excal over...uh...some numbers? That he mentioned that a vote at that stage was 20% of the weight needed to lynch someone and that was supposed to be some sort of scare tactic? I don't know about anyone else around here, but 20% as a number doesn't scare me that much.

Also,
Quote
Mostly the first statement (before he goes into point A) grabs my attention. Do you think there is a serious case to lynch Meeple right now? I agree he hasn't said much--but the game's been going on for, what, twelve hours? I agree that LAL is a sound policy in general, but the game has practically just started. Scum setting up a townie off to a slow start for lynching later? Possibly. I really think it's too early to hit anyone for that, so:

##Vote: Excal

Am I the only one who thinks that this feels like exactly what Cid himself did to Excal in this very post?

And...that was pretty much it for day 1. He could've pulled his rather, IMO, flimsy vote off of Excal but didn't. And didn't even give any more justification for the vote, just said that he was cool with leaving it where it was for his initial reasons.

Now on Day 2:

Alright, he opens with a sensible stance on the early Rat suspicion and Alex's entire "you're voting against serious discussion!!!" thing. Made his comments on this short and to the point, ending with some suspicion on Alex and Meeple. However...he directs most of it at meeple instead of Alex, and even lays down a vote in his next post. Fair enough, meep didn't exactly look wonderful at that point, but I'll disagree that he looked worse then Alex.

His next post though...
Quote
I should've learned by now to focus on the idlers sniping from the sidelines, but at least that's what I feel my current target has been doing.

Once more, you yourself say something that sounds like exactly what you've been doing so far. This really seems to sum up your day 1 behaviour rather well.

Then we have more disagreeing with Alex. Alright, that all looks fine. Still leaves his vote on meep over Alex at that point though, which still feels odd. Especially as in his next big post on meep, the points he raises against him are still weaker then the points he himself has raised against Alex. Then from there it's...mostly more of the same. Leaving his vote on meep despite having a better case agianst Alex. This confuses me a bit.

And that...is pretty much the extent of Cid's presance in the topic.

So my vote...well, call this metagaming if you want, but from thier interactions with eachother I can more easily believe an Alex/Cid scum team then an Alex/Meeple scum team. I can't see scum Alex letting Meep just agree with him THAT much, but Cid's constant suspicion of Alex without ever actually acting on it feels like really good scumbuddy play. Combine that with Meeple's high presance and Cid's low presance...and I'm ready to ##Vote:El Cideon

I'm also a little leary of putting the quicklynch on meeple here. Especially with Cid being the one who's getting that train rolling. Thanks to meep's interactions with Alex, he looks like a really easy lynch right now, and I just don't trust that.

Now as for others, Kilga seems the next best thing to clear for me. He's right in that would take a Xanatos level plot to actually work, and with DL town's record there's no reason the scum would need to bother with something that complex. I'll ask him to reconsider his lunge at Meep though.

Rat is up there with Tai on the people I am the most wary of in Mafia. I can never read Rat well at all, so he's basically a null read. While that's normally something to look further into, I've got two people who are a sight worse then null already, so I'm not overly suspicious of him.

Aaaand, hell, that's everyone. Alright, hope this all makes sense and is clear. Sorry about this post taking me so long to make, folks.
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AndrewRogue

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #181 on: February 28, 2008, 03:05:22 AM »
Meeple (2): El Cid, Kilga
El Cid (1): Gate

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.

The day ends in approximately 41 hours.

Meeplelard

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #182 on: February 28, 2008, 04:25:07 AM »
Well, had a feeling I'd be the next one to go, given the way this game has been going.

Still, might as well make this clear:
Rather than setting up a hammer this early (remember, I'm -1 to Hammer, though I'm sure that's one of the reasons Rat hasn't voted; hammering this early is just too damn risky), lets go over things.

First off, I was considering Cid during work and how he has spoken.  He's been here not all that much, and kind of stayed out of the whole Alex loop, and like Gate said, he seemed to have a stronger case for Alex than me, yet kept the vote.

Next off, remember, this is scum Alex.  He's not one to fall into a trap so easily as "Let me support my other scum buddy!"  That's gotta be one of the easiest scum tells.  If NOTHING ELSE, I'd imagine Alex did that on purpose.  Support me, if he goes, that makes me look bad (especially if I was supporting him), thus protects his scum buddy another day, forcing town into LYLO.  I'm aware I didn't bring a b
ig case to Alex despite saying how I did find something a bit off with him...that's cause I couldn't put my finger on it.  Yes, it was a hunch.  Something around the whole Alex circle felt off, I couldn't put my finger on WHO though, and at the time, Kilga seemed the worst.  The way he just kind of ignored how I proved him wrong about me misintepretting something (as though to paint another easy mark on, it felt), and instead basically trying to reverse the tides...I dunno.
REFLECTING on this behavior, this does seem like a huge risk for Scum Buddies to do; go at it, hope they can win this late...yeah, for all I still can't shake this feeling about Kilga, I had to admit, this strategy would require a lot of things to fall in perfectly.

Then there's the fact that El-Cid votes against me initially based on low content within my posts.  He LATER says "I'm often wrong about this" or something to that effect.  He's also only voted against one person the entire time; me.  Now yes, I'm aware its cause he said I look suspicious both times but...well, his reasoning?

Quote
His playstyle this game has been structured too much around reacting to people questioning him and not enough building cases of his own.

That's it.  That was his initial reason.  So wait, cause I was put onto the defensive, I'm not allowed to be reactionary? This doesn't really make sense.  Rat did the same at one point, after all.  When people start attacking you, you react defensively.  What am I suppose to do? Let the arguments stay, ignore them, and keep moving onto something else?  Strikes me as odd, since no one refuting a point means the point stays, and it looks even LESS like you're paying attention.  Someone calls you out, you respond, its that simple.  That's just odd.

Now he goes after me again, for staying on Alex.  That seems to be everyone's only case against me.  As I said, the reason I didn't go so much after Alex was cause I genuinely felt Kilga was looking worse.  He also doesn't Hammer Alex, despite claiming "he would be willing too."

He also makes a claim of "How can people be too insightful?" which found me as weird.  As I noted, its saying "You can find anything if you look hard enough" when it comes to writing, and I used poetry as an example (I could even use how my friends and I showed how you could compare The Cat In The Hat to Communism, to give you an idea <_<.)

Now, keep in mind that while lots of people (including El-Cid) were on the Excal train, I actually DEFENDED Excal, saying I didn't honestly feel something was wrong with his statement.  He was making a big deal out of numbers but...that's just him being himself.  *GRANTED*, at the same time, this goes back to the whole "Alex doesn't like people agreeing with him!" so it could easily be a scum tell, at the same time, since he was one of the leaders of the Excal Lynch.  My vote was on Cor, but it was Day 1; I had little suspicion of anyone, and Cor's whole "Brush off my vote and not properly respond" thing felt bad to me.  Apparently I wasn't alone; QR voted for Cor as well, and she responds to Soppy saying this as ONE of her reasons:
Quote
-And when Meeple called him out for keeping his jokevote on him he...didn't really adequately respond.

Also remember the person to defend Cor was Alex...and then Cor dies that night anyway.  Then Alex goes onto say "analyzing kills is very WIFOM."  I don't know if this says anything, but its worth noting.

If nothing else, though, if I had noticed this earlier, I'd have called Alex out on the whole "QR hasn't been on your case the entire time; she voted for Cor initially!"
Too late for that, granted. 

After looking over Rat's little "so only you and Meeple aren't scum?' thing, I can see why he made a slip like that (for lack of a better word.)  Its easy to forget you're looking at things from the other person's PoV instead of your own, so you naturally ignore the lack of yourself on a list.  This is an easy slip, it happens to anyone, its something you'd do subconsciously.  Was that the point you were trying to make Rat, btw?

Now, bare in mind the problem I had with an Alex lynch as well? The reasons for lynching him weren't so sound.  Kilga's main reason was "This isn't the Town Alex I know!" when it came down to it, and the whole Downplaying Mistakes thing.  Soppy's was mostly Alex getting "Too Emotional" which...eh, couldn't see much into it.  QR was basically saying Alex was twisting words over early parts in the game and Tunnel Visioning on Day 2, for all that I felt like she had the best case.  Compared to the general feel I was getting from Kilga, it felt like he was the scum in the mess, so I aimed at him.

ANYWAY, back to El-Cid.

He basically calls Excal out on the 20% thing.  He's the first one to vote for Excal.  Now, Cor noted that Excal was blowing things out of proportion, but Excal responds and he responds saying he misunderstood, but still thinks Excal was making a bigger deal out than the numbers really mean.  El-Cid, though, votes Excal...

*HOWEVER*, one thing makes me a bit...uneasy about this El-Cid equal scum thing.  Its Alex's first post after El-Cid's post:

Quote
I very much agree with what Cid's been saying about Excal and find this the scummiest position currently in play.

As we've been saying, Alex isn't one to go on agreeing with his scum buddies so quickly...but at the same time, he's found a case he can exploit the hell out of, being an experienced player and scum, Alex can't drop this opportunity to frame someone is my thought.  Now, its also possible that something like this happened in a scum chat or something:
Alex and El-cid talk, El-cid says he's not going to be available for some time.  This means Alex can vote Excal while El-Cid stays under the radar from not existing, and try to push for a lynch from that, while El-Cid, the original voter of it, kind of gets buried and tossed out, in a sense. 

Next off, both Excal and Soppy call out El-Cid for One Post in the serious phase with actual content and it was slim.  Also, fun note for Alex near end of day 1 mentions the 3 people he'd want to lynch first:
1 is Excal, who got lynched; he's made this clear.
The next was El-Cid for a mere lurking charge.
The last is Rat.

Alex vs. Rat we've been over; its basically Alex accusing Rat for doing something, Rat being forced onto the defensive for a while, and Alex never actually dropping it.  Later, he claims to have dropped suspicion for Rat...only to get it more for Rat's slip.  This kind of arguing doesn't seem to fit in for 2 scum buddies, near as I can tell, so Rat's looking better.
El-Cid, though, his whole reasoning is for lurking...he votes El-Cid at the beginning of Day 2, El-Cid comes back, saying he was gone due to work and sleep (fair reasons, and something that'd be silly to lie about), then starts reading over...and ultimately votes me, which comes back to the beginning of my post.

Though, Excal brings up a point right before he was taken down, that El-Cid barely said anything in a whole day worth of serious discussion.  Granted, this could be a simple "He's lurking, TALK MORE" but he also says his posts worth content were aimed at him only.

Now, back to El-Cid vs. me.  I'm sorry for going on this whole Excal tangent, but felt worth bringing up since El-Cid DID start it, and then said very little about it after words, and Alex just sort of pushed it from there after a point.

El-Cid does a long post, and then says this:

Quote
So, I'm looking at Meeple right now. Took some prodding to get moving, and even made a couple posts saying that he was lurking because there was no serious content to respond to. I don't think that's ever a sound argument. If you believe there's not sufficient serious discussion going on, you owe it to yourself as a townie to start it.

Wait...I took prodding to get moving? The way this line is structured, you're saying that I claimed i didn't do anything UNTIL I came in and said "I was lurking cause there was no serious discussion."
I posted my initial reason BEFORE Soppy "prodded" me, and...Soppy was mostly being tongue and cheek rereading that supposed mistake he made.  I reference the whole "I didn't care for the monkey brained soup!" comment.  Cor was actually the one who started discussion, or at least was claiming too.

So I respond just repeating what I said, and that's that.  You just go "You owe it to yourself to get it started as a townie!"  Well, the thing is?  Cor did the same thing...and people started looking at him.  Rat actually tried doing the same thing, and people were suspecting him (though, this one was due to misinterpretations, and Alex was the first one who called him out on it...and Alex was scum, hence yeah.) etc.  Soppy was even called out for making a mistake, one that he wasn't really being completely serious over either near as I can tell.  So yeah, you can't just suddenly go "Lets get the ball rolling!" or else you can get yourself in trouble.  I didn't know *HOW* to, as I said before, without looking bad, so I opted not to.  Bad excuse? Maybe.  Bad playing? Perhaps.  But I do think you're either reading too much into it, or trying to label something on me for the sake of justifying your reasons.
Then you finally vote me for "not generating enough content on my own!"

So lets look at the rest of his posts on day 2, shall we?

His next post after voting for me is just "Flip doesn't surprise me, its often 2 townies yelling at each other."  Doesn't really say a lot one way or another.

His next post is against Alex.  He says something that's basically "Face it Alex, Meta-gaming is inevitable." Not as blunt, mind, but that's more or less what he says.
He then tries to claim that "Playstyles" and "Meta-gaming" are one in the same when focused on.  That's...not true at all.  Alex was talking about Play-styles in general, as in, "How has this person been playing throughout the game we're playing now" not "in comparison to others."  One is an aspect in and of itself, the other is not.  Alex was scum, granted, so you could take this with a grain of salt, but...well, El-Cid's nitpicking Alex here, in a way that feels off...in that its almost like he's trying to find SOMETHING to make him look unlinked with Alex.
He then talks about how Alex's attack on Rat wasn't a discussion starter.  He ends the post saying "I agree with Kilga's point on you, and Kilga/Rat's reasons on Meeple."  So he's taking a different stance than Alex, while arguing with Alex, not in a really stand out fashion?  This feels like a way mainly to keep a link between him and Alex gone.

Next post, El-Cid takes a whole post against him, when only the first part of it was.  I can see just throwing that out as "My structure was bad, its easy to get confused", and that's what I did.  Still, bringing it up cause it does exist, for all that it tells us little.

Here's the first thing in El-Cid's next post that stands out to me of actual content:

Quote
So, what exactly are we supposed to do with the initial "discussion starter" votes? Ignore them? Nod along? Smile and wave? They exist to start discussion, and countering them with a vote is, I think, a very valid way of continuing that. It continues to baffle me that the above arguments were ever seriously made.

He misinterprets my objective explanation of what was happening.  I said this:

Quote
Translation: Alex is saying Rat attacked flimsy cases that existed for the sake of discussion, and finds Rat's stance antitown as a result.

This is what  that line is referring too.  I don't get it...he's arguing over me summarizing a point, which says little?  I was saying "this is what Alex did, and why he did it!"  That's all; its pure objective.  I didn't say "This is what Alex did, and why he did it, and why I think its right/wrong!"  No, I was just summarizing...and he responds to THAT of all things?

Note that he combines my point there with one right above it, which says more or less the same thing.  The fact remains, he's attacking something simple and objective which was just to shed light on Rat vs. Alex in hopes to get something out of it, and wasn't a main point at all.

Next off, he comes to my Minor Mistake point...

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On the contrary, many a case is made from a collection of minor tells. This game would be damned easy for town if the scum were just massively incompetent. This is more of a general point, really. The accumulation of small details is actually quite vital.

He says "collection of minor scum tells" when there wasn't much of a collection.  I later list all the things held against me...it was 3 total.  No one defunked this (granted, now there's the whole "I didn't attack Alex!" thing which I have to deal with, which puts me in a real bad situation) list, from my knowledge, so...its a total of 3.  One of which was a Meta-game reason that was based on someone not knowing how I was at all in other games (aka I played them the same I did Suikomafia where I was scum, and the other 2 I was not, and if you didn't notice, I'm acting here exactly the same way I do in other topics and chat.)  The other two I admitted were legit (one was the mistake), but by themselves held little, and just the two of them alone aren't enough.  At very least, Soppy said earlier that "cases against meeple aren't convincing enough" too, for whatever that's worth.

The he brings up "Too Insightful" and says "how does that work?" then says "Alex is being inconsistent is Kilga's reason."  Yes, cause Alex played Random Mafia the same way he played his OTHER games and...wait, he was town there!  Alex was scum, Kilga was right, but I can't help but feel he was right for the wrong reasons.  The point is, Meta-gaming is very flimsy.
The "Too insightful" thing I covered; acting like its impossible to be "Too insightful" just sounds off.

Then El-cid says he's going to be gone for a whole hour...I'm not sure why he'd say that.  Its one thing if you're going off for work, and aren't going to be around for a while, but getting paranoid like that feels...I dunno.  This is probably me looking too much into it, so I won't really put much emphasis on it.  Oh, right, before this, he talks a bit about soppy...and says nothing worth noting one way or another there.

He next posts after acknowledging that my post was not geared towards him and his simple misinterpretation (which as I said, was partially due to structure of the post), that I was blowing things out of proportion and it rewards a vote.

Now, after responding to Alex, he says HERE that he will "Change vote from Meeple to Alex" for the first time if things aren't nearing a deadline without a majority.  So the deadline is coming up, and he...doesn't hammer?  I suppose he could argue "there were 3 votes on Alex then, 2 on the others at most!" but it sounds like here, he's ready to vote Alex much earlier than the hammer...and doesn't do it later when he claimed he would.

His next post basically says "You defended Meeple and considered him a non-issue most of the game!"  Then says he's ready to hammer, but doesn't.

I dunno, I can't help but feel Gate's right about something being off on El-Cid.

I'd vote now, but wanna here what others have to say about it first.  I know I'm looking bad and I don't know what I can about it at this point.  All I know is of the people who were facing Alex, El-Cid brought up very minor points at best, was the one least into the conversation, *AND* claimed he was ready to vote Alex *TWICE* but didn't.
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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #183 on: February 28, 2008, 04:55:50 AM »
Alright, El Cid...

Day 1: early vote on Excal over...uh...some numbers? That he mentioned that a vote at that stage was 20% of the weight needed to lynch someone and that was supposed to be some sort of scare tactic? I don't know about anyone else around here, but 20% as a number doesn't scare me that much.

In the context of Excal's post, it felt like he was trying to warn Cor away from the vote he was making. Nor was I the only one who felt this way. Kilga (who you believe to be a confirmed townie) chimed in with the same criticism; Cor and Soppy (now known townies) also voted for him. I was not alone in this view and I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish in going on about it. Sure, it might look trivial to someone just coming on; on day one, that kind of thing is pretty much all you have.

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Also,
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Mostly the first statement (before he goes into point A) grabs my attention. Do you think there is a serious case to lynch Meeple right now? I agree he hasn't said much--but the game's been going on for, what, twelve hours? I agree that LAL is a sound policy in general, but the game has practically just started. Scum setting up a townie off to a slow start for lynching later? Possibly. I really think it's too early to hit anyone for that, so:

##Vote: Excal

Am I the only one who thinks that this feels like exactly what Cid himself did to Excal in this very post?

Incorrect. I voted Excal for disagreeing with what he was saying. I had no intention of disparaging Meeple there, and in fact thought it was too early to be calling him out on lurking. Did you miss the part of that post where I was defending Meeple? It's in the quote you just used, man. I have to take issue with you arguing from inference here. Excal wasn't even off to a slow start (he'd posted plenty), so I'm not sure how you can draw the comparison. That's not remotely what I was saying.

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And...that was pretty much it for day 1. He could've pulled his rather, IMO, flimsy vote off of Excal but didn't. And didn't even give any more justification for the vote, just said that he was cool with leaving it where it was for his initial reasons.


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His next post though...
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I should've learned by now to focus on the idlers sniping from the sidelines, but at least that's what I feel my current target has been doing.

Once more, you yourself say something that sounds like exactly what you've been doing so far. This really seems to sum up your day 1 behaviour rather well.

Nah. I'd sum up my day one activity as Not Posting. Which doesn't look much better, I'm aware, just feel it necessary to make the distinction. (I wasn't even home most of Sunday, for the record).

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Then we have more disagreeing with Alex. Alright, that all looks fine. Still leaves his vote on meep over Alex at that point though, which still feels odd. Especially as in his next big post on meep, the points he raises against him are still weaker then the points he himself has raised against Alex. Then from there it's...mostly more of the same. Leaving his vote on meep despite having a better case agianst Alex. This confuses me a bit.


I believe Alex had votes on him at the time. I wanted to prod both of 'em and Meeple had less attention, so my vote stayed with him. Cor did this day one and got flack for it, so I can see how'd find it odd when I did something similar, but it's not like I was unwilling to changemy vote (see below).

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So my vote...well, call this metagaming if you want, but from thier interactions with eachother I can more easily believe an Alex/Cid scum team then an Alex/Meeple scum team. I can't see scum Alex letting Meep just agree with him THAT much, but Cid's constant suspicion of Alex without ever actually acting on it feels like really good scumbuddy play. Combine that with Meeple's high presance and Cid's low presance...and I'm ready to ##Vote:El Cideon

You may be overestimating how easy it is to get Meeple to do anything. This isn't metagaming, this is a law of the universe. In all seriousness, some of the telling Meeple posts happened in the first day. It could be Alex and hypothetical scum Meeple hadn't conferred much by that point.

Anyway, perhaps you missed the part where I gave warning that I was about to hammer Alex and decided to first give people the courtesy of letting them get in a few last words? I was going to vote for him just before I left for work if no one spoke up. Didn't expect Carthrat to go ahead and do it first, though.

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I'm also a little leary of putting the quicklynch on meeple here. Especially with Cid being the one who's getting that train rolling. Thanks to meep's interactions with Alex, he looks like a really easy lynch right now, and I just don't trust that.

You don't feel right lynching the person who has the most obvious case for being scum...why, exactly? For any reason other than the fact that I'm the one pushing for it? From where I'm sitting, it's pretty much down to you and Meeple (this isn't a threat, it's a simple statement of my position). Rat/Kilga's conduct with Alex throughout the game makes their being on the same side as him practically unthinkable. If either one is scum, he's done a commendable job of smokescreening. Since QR also participated in that from near the beginning of day two, this makes you the less suspicious target. That, mixed with my earlier misgivings about Meeple, pretty much cement him as being today's business in my mind. Yes, even this early in the day.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Giant Meeple Rant (TM). God, I shouldn't stay up late enough to read and respond to this, but I'll try.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #184 on: February 28, 2008, 05:00:51 AM »
El-Cid, Gate never said "Meep has the most obvious case of looking scum."

What he more said was "Meep has the easiest case to label scum thus get lynched."

Think about it.  I supported Alex...who flipped up scum.  The other scum suddenly sees this as a perfect target to go after cause its so easy to use that against someone.  When most people label someone as scum, and one person doesn't, and that person does indeed flip up scum, a case can be made very easily to lynch them.

I believe this is what Gate's trying to get at.  I think he's saying "Meep's TOO easy to lynch for being" is one way to look at it, and that's why he doesn't trust it.  He didn't say "obvious" ever.  He said "easiest" which while can be considered one and the same in many cases...isn't the same.  And he didn't say "He's the most obvious scum" but "easiest to lynch."  They are very different things once you think about it.
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> so Snow...
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[21:39] <+Hello-NewAgeHipsterDojimaDee> That's -brilliant-.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #185 on: February 28, 2008, 05:02:08 AM »
Blech, when I said "Meeple is TOO easy to lynch for being" I meant to say "being scum."
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> so Snow...
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[21:39] <+Hello-NewAgeHipsterDojimaDee> That's -brilliant-.

[17:02] <+Tengu_Man> Raven is a better comic relief PC than A

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #186 on: February 28, 2008, 05:08:11 AM »
I understood perfectly what Gate was suggesting there, Meeple. I was stating that it is my perception that you are the most obvious lynch candidate.

The fact that he thinks there's something wrong about this is, in my opinion, total WIFOM territory. If Person A has a possible connection to a dead player revealed as scum, and Player B attacks Player A for this...the natural course of action is to vote for Person B? That takes too much second-guessing for me to respect it as a case.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #187 on: February 28, 2008, 05:29:22 AM »
The way you worded made it seem like not only it was Gate's opinion *BUT* it is also a fact and that now that you're being called out on something, all you can say is "Meeple is more suspicious!" in the end?

Frankly, its seems to say "YOU AGREE WITH ME! VOTE MEEPLE!" or "YOU HAVE TO AGREE WITH ME!" or whatever.  The fact remains, your wording comes off as "HE'S OBVIOUSLY SCUM!" as though its a fact, or that you're mincing Gate's words.  Either way...its not good.

Your entire rebutle to Gate feels...I dunno.  Its mostly "Nah, I did this!" "Nah, I wasn't there!" Then you finally respond with a whole "Meeple probably didn't confer with Alex!"

Anyway, "Going to vote!" and "actually voting" are two different things.  If you feel someone needs to be hammered, you DO IT.  That's *YOUR* obligation as a townie.  You called me out earlier for not starting discussion from Day 1 silliness as my obligation...well, its also your obligation, especially when its obvious you have many others who agree, to hammer if you feel that you should.  Holding off on a hammer like that doesn't largely help anyone, unless you're absolutely uncertain whether you want to vote for the person (and based on what you said in that post, you really did sound like you were ready...but you didn't anyway for a lame "lets have others talk!" excuse.)

Yeah, I know; my point just reeked of OMGUS since I'm calling out El-Cid the same way he did to me earlier, in a way not that disimilar to how I called Kilga out for doing the same to me without really responding but...well, it strikes me that he's holding off on a Hammer, when he was ready to do it.  Rat said he was ready, and actually did it.  He could have left it open for discussion, but didn't feel a need to.  You seemed in the same boat, but didn't do it.  From where I was sitting by the time I went to sleep, it felt like Alex was pretty much dead where he was standing anyway (for all that I still didn't agree with the reasonings.)   The only people who didn't vote on him were you, me, and Rat at the time, and naturally Alex who wouldn't self-lynch cause its incredibly stupid move (look at Random Mafia for example; Otter Selflynched, and that pretty much screwed Scum over on day 1.  Yes, meta-gaming, but its a mechanics thing here, not a play style thing.)
Now, think about that.  What good is discussion going to do? Kilga voiced his opinion, was heavily anti Alex, and pretty clear he wasn't changing his vote at that point.  QR was on Alex's case since the beginning of Day 2.  The only argument you could make is that Gate replacing her could have had a different PoV, but that's kind of playing with dice; you don't know what he'd end up with.  Soppy voted Alex saying he was too emotional the entire time and can't really see that as a good thing at all (though, stated Kilga isn't looking good either.)

I had voiced that I felt that something was off with the Alex ring, but I was labeling it on Kilga at that point; my stance was pretty firm Anti-Kilga, so its clear my opinion wouldn't have been changed.  So...seems like you were basing everything on Rat to change his vote, to kill Alex.  That...wasn't much for discussion, Rat was already leaning towards Alex earlier than your post.  He just finally decided to Hammer.

Interesting note is that both Rat and Cid had a vote on me, and were the ones who were considering hammering.  Rat DID Hammer, Cid did not.  I smell a slight bit of parroting from El-Cid in regards to my vote, since he was also saying "I mostly agree with them!" and then doesn't really contribute a whole lot in the discussion, what with general lack of presence, and then finally when he's given an action that can be done on his own (actually hammering)...he doesn't do it?

Well, screw it, I can't see a reason to hold this off much longer, especially since I'd be hypocritical if I didn't, but...

##Vote: El-Cid

And I can't shake this feeling that I am getting lynched by the end of the day.  If I do, well, good luck with LYLO next round fellow town.  Why am I saying that now?  Figure I'd say that at some point before I bite it.  Of course, I could be paranoid, but well...from where I'm sitting? only one person hasn't voted, its Rat, and he's still saying I'm looking the worse, so I can't really say I'm feeling hopeful at this point (doesn't mean I'm giving up though.)
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> so Snow...
[21:39] <+Mega_Mettaur> Sonic Chaos
[21:39] <+Hello-NewAgeHipsterDojimaDee> That's -brilliant-.

[17:02] <+Tengu_Man> Raven is a better comic relief PC than A

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #188 on: February 28, 2008, 05:32:20 AM »
Next off, remember, this is scum Alex.  He's not one to fall into a trap so easily as "Let me support my other scum buddy!"  That's gotta be one of the easiest scum tells.  If NOTHING ELSE, I'd imagine Alex did that on purpose.  Support me, if he goes, that makes me look bad (especially if I was supporting him), thus protects his scum buddy another day, forcing town into LYLO.  I'm aware I didn't bring a big case to Alex despite saying how I did find something a bit off with him...that's cause I couldn't put my finger on it.  Yes, it was a hunch.  Something around the whole Alex circle felt off, I couldn't put my finger on WHO though, and at the time, Kilga seemed the worst.  The way he just kind of ignored how I proved him wrong about me misintepretting something (as though to paint another easy mark on, it felt), and instead basically trying to reverse the tides...I dunno.
REFLECTING on this behavior, this does seem like a huge risk for Scum Buddies to do; go at it, hope they can win this late...yeah, for all I still can't shake this feeling about Kilga, I had to admit, this strategy would require a lot of things to fall in perfectly.

Grade A metagaming, to such a degree that not even I can tolerate it. "Alex is too smart to act that way!" But what if...he wanted to surprise us?! No, don't respond to that, it's a rhetorical remark. The above quote is WIFOM in circles, and I can't take any of it very seriously.

Also, I feel obliged to note that you never really "proved" that Kilga was wrong about you misinterpreting something. You did echo Alex's argument against Rat as though it were fact, and some of us still think this looks off.

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Then there's the fact that El-Cid votes against me initially based on low content within my posts.  He LATER says "I'm often wrong about this" or something to that effect.

Hah. Meeple, I make self-deprecation a way of life. You're definitely reading too much into this line.

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He's also only voted against one person the entire time; me.  Now yes, I'm aware its cause he said I look suspicious both times but...well, his reasoning?

Wrong. I did vote for Excal day one, in case you've forgotten. Yes, we know that Excal flipped town.

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His playstyle this game has been structured too much around reacting to people questioning him and not enough building cases of his own.

That's it.  That was his initial reason.  So wait, cause I was put onto the defensive, I'm not allowed to be reactionary? This doesn't really make sense.  Rat did the same at one point, after all.  When people start attacking you, you react defensively.  What am I suppose to do? Let the arguments stay, ignore them, and keep moving onto something else?  Strikes me as odd, since no one refuting a point means the point stays, and it looks even LESS like you're paying attention.  Someone calls you out, you respond, its that simple.  That's just odd.

Wrong, and a very bad exaggeration. I would never object to someone defending himself. As you might recall, I called Alex on making that very statement (calling Rat's self-defense irrelevant early in the game). What I found off--and you might notice that I say this in the very quote you copied--is relying overly much on prods from other people to get one moving and not producing enough original material, something I felt you'd done early in the game. There's a delicate balance to be struck here, admittedly--focus too much on self-defense and people might say you're hyper-defensive, too focused on self-preservation, "why won't you talk about someone else's case?" And so on. But that's a general Mafia Survival issue. I would never, ever call someone suspicious for the mere fact of defending himself, and the fact that you're claiming this is what I've done is pretty damn glaring.

More as it occurs to me.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Meeple again? Jesus, man. Dunno if I'll get to that one or not.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #189 on: February 28, 2008, 05:42:37 AM »
Update!

Meeplelard (2): El Cideon, Kilgamayan
El Cideon (2): Gatewalker, Meeplelard

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.

Day 3 ends in about 39.5 hours.
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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #190 on: February 28, 2008, 05:54:38 AM »
The way you worded made it seem like not only it was Gate's opinion *BUT* it is also a fact and that now that you're being called out on something, all you can say is "Meeple is more suspicious!" in the end?

I've stated why I think you're suspicious, Meeple. Do I need to put a recap in every post? Add in the fact that your arguments are getting worse as the night wears on, of course. I said plenty of things to directly address the points made in Gate's post. If you choose to exaggerate random lines instead of acknowledging that, it only makes you look worse.

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Your entire rebutle to Gate feels...I dunno.  Its mostly "Nah, I did this!"

Yeah, I really do need to stop correcting factual errors.

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"Nah, I wasn't there!"

Statement of fact. I didn't use it as an excuse or try to suggest in any way that it got me off the hook for being inactive day one. Quite the contrary, I fully understand people voting me for lurking then and don't hold that against them. They were totally justified in doing so.

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Then you finally respond with a whole "Meeple probably didn't confer with Alex!"

A minor point, and a hypothetical scenario to boot. I didn't represent it as anything but that.

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Anyway, "Going to vote!" and "actually voting" are two different things.  If you feel someone needs to be hammered, you DO IT.  That's *YOUR* obligation as a townie.  You called me out earlier for not starting discussion from Day 1 silliness as my obligation...well, its also your obligation, especially when its obvious you have many others who agree, to hammer if you feel that you should.  Holding off on a hammer like that doesn't largely help anyone, unless you're absolutely uncertain whether you want to vote for the person (and based on what you said in that post, you really did sound like you were ready...but you didn't anyway for a lame "lets have others talk!" excuse.)

We'd just been granted an extension. It occurred to me that someone might want to use it. Perhaps the new player we were getting? In any event, I genuinely considered it unlikely someone else would bring the hammer down in the couple hours between the time I made that post and the time I had to go to work, so I figured it couldn't hurt to give a last-minute warning in case any other crazy person was up at 5AM. Of course, Rat lives in this bizarre parallel world where they think it's daytime right now, so that is in fact what happened.

Lemme ask you to consider something here. Were I actually scum, what would I gain from NOT voting Alex? Killing him there would be an excellent way to get townie cred, no? This is total WIFOM, of course, but that seems to be your favorite approach tonight, so what the hell.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #191 on: February 28, 2008, 06:13:22 AM »
So I respond just repeating what I said, and that's that.  You just go "You owe it to yourself to get it started as a townie!"  Well, the thing is?  Cor did the same thing...and people started looking at him.  Rat actually tried doing the same thing, and people were suspecting him (though, this one was due to misinterpretations, and Alex was the first one who called him out on it...and Alex was scum, hence yeah.) etc.  Soppy was even called out for making a mistake, one that he wasn't really being completely serious over either near as I can tell.  So yeah, you can't just suddenly go "Lets get the ball rolling!" or else you can get yourself in trouble.  I didn't know *HOW* to, as I said before, without looking bad, so I opted not to.  Bad excuse? Maybe.  Bad playing? Perhaps.

Generally speaking: You say stuff, and people rip it apart. This is Mafia in a nutshell. It's the entirety of the game, barring role madness. The first person to start real discussion is almost guaranteed to be the first one to get seriously attacked, but someone has to start it. I admit that I'm not great at taking the initiative either, but you have to try. Otherwise the same people do it every game, and that's just lame.

Alright, that's as much as I should be writing tonight (assuming this post doesn't get ninja'd by Meeple again). Didn't get a chance to fully break down the Meeple rant, but it'll do for now.

Meeple seems to be getting increasingly agitated here, which genuinely bothers me. Back off and relax, dude. Put the Dew down for a while. I'll be sleeping for the next few hours and I can't guarantee I'll get a chance to post before work, so get some rest before the next tirade, alright? Because it might be a while before I can respond again. Seriously, this isn't me being patronizing. Just chill out.

Everyone else: I would love to see Carthrat and Kilga weigh in on the little avalanche of posts that just happened here, since the two of them are pretty much confirmed town in my eyes. QR/Gate...Gate's attack is giving me some doubts. If something crazy happens and I'm dead before I get back to the board, order of suspicion goes Meeple > Gate >>>> Rat > Kilga.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #192 on: February 28, 2008, 07:04:48 AM »
One of the reasons I'm annoyed is cause people are ignoring one of Rat's points (though I'm aware he still finds me suspicious):

That Scum Alex would never let someone pull something like that.  Scum Alex would want someone agreeing with him that wasn't a scum, so to label them.  I'll grant he probably knows that this won't quite work that way, but considering people were already suspicious of me, think about it; it'll just make me look worse the next day.

El-Cid, its been gone over in the past in other games.  Hammers are NOT a bad thing; only reason to hold off on a hammer is cause you're scum or cause you're absolutely uncertain.  If your suspicions are higher on someone else, you vote for them.  Its that simple.  Pulling the "I'll wait for people to discuss!" excuse is pretty shaky.  Its a euphamism for "I don't wanna be the one to hammer!"  You can hide behind the "I'm ready to hammer!" line, but unless you do it, that line means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

You call out on a WIFOM, but...it makes TOO easy a target to really work at the same time.  Your reasons aren't very laid out either.  You claimed I wasn't contributing (but I was), you said the mistake thing (which...is something only 2 people really felt strongly about), and there's the Alex thing.  Ok...so wait, we're holding me back to a misinterpretation from Day 1, and while plenty of other mistakes (granted, I recently made a bunch...yeah, I know I'm really looking bad now) have been made...that's the only one that matters?  So Kilga's whole claiming Rat didn't do something which he kind of did, me proving it wrong, and Kilga's then OMGUS response means nothing just cause he's arguing with Alex?  I'll grant, Xanatos Paradox, but its an example how you can't hold something against someone for THAT DAMN LONG.  No, its not "You rip things to shreds in Mafia!" Yes, and that's exactly what Scum LOVE; people rip statements to shreds to find hidden meanings in any statement that isn't there, and then they refuse to drop it.  Scum love this, you know it.   Scum also like to agitate others to get them not from thinking.  I...probably can be accused of doing that in the past few posts, butthen again, you just pulled a "Your arguments keep getting worse and worse!" thing.
I don't see your arguments working either.  No, you...aren't going against Factual Evidence.  You're twisting things around.  You were the first to vote Excal...for reasonings other than what people called out.  You voted Excal on a loose reason, left, came back...kept your vote without really giving much of a reason behind it.  Yet you're claiming you weren't alone?  No, there's a difference between people agreeing, and people going with the same vote for different reasons (see how QR and Kilga both voted Alex, but had very different reasons, at least at first.)

Now, you could say "But Alex agreed with me, that goes against the whole Alex would never do that!" thing.  Except its different; Alex agreed on a single point, early in the day...and ran with it.  You didn't comment on it on any follow up.  Alex/Me thing was a constant thing going on throughout the day.

Here's the thing; from where I'm sitting, people want me dead, but either Rat feels my case for being scum isn't large enough to be voted and he's having second thoughts (very possible), or he's afraid to hammer me cause it'll make him look scummy should I not be scum (which also means he has second thoughts, or probably less likely now, he's the scum.)   I know, this is probably the most ridiculous statement ever, but that's it.
Gate...eh, I wouldn't be surprised if my past posts just turned his vote on you into a vote on me.

A few other things though:

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Hah. Meeple, I make self-deprecation a way of life. You're definitely reading too much into this line.

Much like my way of life is to keep talking and never shut up, even if I'm not saying a lot?

Also, the defense of "I voted Excal day 1!" thing...yeah, its Day 1, things had just gotten serious and then you...disappeared.  Once you read stuff, you voted me and your votes been there since, despite finding Alex worse.  You found him worse than me *BEFORE* there was even a -1 to Hammer.  I don't get this at all.  Assuming you meant what you claimed to have meant with "Most obviously scum" to Gate...

You're being hypocritical.  You go "I find Alex most suspicious, I'll change it if I need too!" before the hammer was in question...then you question Gate for *NOT* voting on someone suspicious? 

To quote you exactly in that one post...

Quote
Alex: Fairly suspicious of him. I've gone on about this already and my feelings haven't changed. Will switch my vote from Meeple to him if it looks like we're nearing the deadline without a majority.

Quote
Meeple: I've voiced my misgivings about him. I'm not convinced he's scum, but I think he's a better lynch than most other people right now. Granted, QR's most recent post sums up his case pretty well and gives me pause somewhat. I'll reread his posts later tonight (oh, the agony--I'm sorry, but the Giant Meeple Rants give me migraines. I'm not holding this against you in terms of my vote, it's just something that needed to be said!) but for now my vote stays where it is.

You're pretty much admitting Alex is a better target, unless somehow "I'm not convinced he's scum" is a better target statement than "Fairly suspicious of him."   This post is pretty much saying that Alex is a better case, but you're leaving your vote on me just cause.  You don't give a reason why its changing, just that "better than most" but you openly admit Alex has a better case, and you don't take advantage of it.  There wasn't any worry about lynching and you know it here.  Then you call Gate on NOT doing that?
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Carthrat

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #193 on: February 28, 2008, 12:52:08 PM »
As far as I can see, the case against Cid really boils down to a few key points, as presented by Gate and Meeple. If I am wrong on these, say so, but this is what you seemed to be saying in your posts.

-Low presence throughout the game, particularly on day 1.

This is true. I have not paid much attention to Cid myself due to focusing on Meeple and Alex, and the sudden case against him has been something of a surprise.


-Despite apparently having a stronger case against Meeple than Alex, he still chose to pressure Meeple. In particular, see the end of day 2 for how he seems reluctant to change.

I'm not  sure his case against Alex was stronger, and I'm not actually sure his desire to wait at the end of the day is a major tell, although it did make me blink when I saw it. It could be that he was hoping someone would speak up and lynch another, but Alex seemed a dead man walking at that point. The one real reason I find this bizzare is that he doesn't reference QR's replacement at all- as I said when I voted, that would be perhaps the one legitimate reason to drag out the day longer. Still, this is a relatively minor offence, given that had he been wrong, we'd be in LYLO.

I also felt Meeple was the worse offender for much of day 2, to be fair. I will grant that Cid seems to talk *more* about Alex than Meeple in general- and I'm really not sure what to make of that. A large part of that was also in response to Alex, so it is at least somewhat excusable. I do want someone to elaborate further on this, as it's a pretty major point.


-He's STILL going against Meeple today, and Meeple is a supposedly weak target.

I flat-out disagree that this is a tell; I would have voted Meeple earlier if it wouldn't have hammered him (the reason I didn't hammer him is because the day had practically just started, and more opportunity needed and still needs to be given to respond and debate.)

I believe 'weak target' is frequently synonymous with 'scummy target' and always have trouble taking this kind of claim seriously.


-He is supposedly hypocritical; for instance, planning on calling out people in the sidelines when he himself is borderline lurking.

Just because you yourself have made some kind of error doesn't mean you shouldn't point it out in others if you catch it, and to be honest, of all the things you can be hypocritical about, lurking is the least worrisome thing to call someone out on. (That doesn't mean you can get away with lurking, of course.)


-He has a habit of tagging along on the arguments of others rather than producing his own content.

This is the real problem. I feel like he did this blatantly at the start of day 2, in that he seemed to dredge up arguments that had already been covered in day 1 (mostly in my responses to Alex. In particular, this is the stuff over stifling discussion.)

In *general* he is usually the last to respond in any particular, um, debate. However, I don't think this is unforgivable at present. Keep in mind that it's a small game- there are only so many things being said and only so many points to cover. This is really corollary to his lurking charge, I believe, and perhaps the strongest point I can find against him.

Despite that, the case against Cid basically seems quite weak to me at present, and Meeple remains foremost in my mind. However, it's also true that Meeple is really the *only* truly strong case I've got at the moment.


<->

Meeple seems to have fallen into his prior bad habits, and I agree with Cid that it's disturbing. Much of his posts are riddled with WIFOMs; for instance, saying that "Scum wouldn't do this!" in almost any context is almost always a WIFOM; it goes double when it applies to "Scum wouldn't do this!" in response to allegations that you yourself are scum (in this case, I believe it went something like "Alex wouldn't act like this if I were his scumbuddy!")

Quote from: 'Meeple'
"Now he goes after me again, for staying on Alex.  That seems to be everyone's only case against me.  As I said, the reason I didn't go so much after Alex was cause I genuinely felt Kilga was looking worse.  He also doesn't Hammer Alex, despite claiming "he would be willing too."

I.. need you to explain this to me, I don't know what you're saying.

He's right about what I was getting at with regard to my own mistake, vis a vis links between Alex and Meeple.

In general, Meeple's replies to Cid are both exaggerated and, well, misplaced. This really says it best-

Quote from: 'Cid'
Quote from: 'Meeple'
Your entire rebutle to Gate feels...I dunno.  Its mostly "Nah, I did this!"

Yeah, I really do need to stop correcting factual errors.

He seems to argue against, to put it simply, both defending yourself and attacking others in his replies. I think I've covered the major points against Cid already, and Meeple's whole style feels like he's trying to cram together as many facts together and turn them into a bad light.

If I'm to take his argument seriously, I need him to rephrase it into a digestable form. I've done my best and can't really put it any better than that. In particular I need somewhat concise elaboration on Cid's case against Alex being stronger than that on Meeple.

<->

-Kilga needs to weigh in on Cid and Meeple today beyond just one paragraph. He also needs to weigh in on himself, so to speak- I posted some stuff in the very first post I made today and he hasn't responded to it. I'm not really willing to call him 'clear'; frankly, people shouldn't be so quick to toss around that sort of statement in general. He's not a lynch candidate today, most likely, but I still want him to reply.
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VySaika

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #194 on: February 28, 2008, 05:59:00 PM »
Arg. Meeple posts are full of meeple. >_<

Alright, reading this stuff over, I'm still more convinced that Cid is Scum then meep is. My suspicions are still(to copy Cid himself here) Cid>Meep>>>>Kilga>Rat right now. Why has rat dropped to the bottom of the list? Because if he's the scum, he would have no reason at all not to hammer meep, and then watch me and Cid go for eachother's throats tomorrow in LYLO. Yeah, yeah, 'scum would do this is WIFOM' but you can turn anything into a WIFOM and I personally think that anylizing the tactical decisions people make is a perfectly valid thing to do.

That's also what a chunk of my paranoia over the meeple lynch is about, as well. You can call it WIFOM if you must, but I think that looking over the behaviour of dead scum for connections is a good information source. And Alex->Meeple is TOO easy for me to trust. And not entirely because of meep's behaviour either, but mostly Alex's. While sure, I'll grant that it might be difficult to get meeple to do something he doesn't want to do(though I think you're downplaying meep's intelligence by assuming he wouldn't listen to a more experienced scumbuddy here), meep himself wouldn't have to do a thing to muddy the Alex->Meeple connection waters. Alex could have done that all by himself just by launching some attacks at meep for "me too-ism". Hell, it's even PERFECTLY within Alex's character to suspect someone who is agreeing with him too much.

Yeah, this is sorta metagamy, but I think that a metagame is pretty much inevitable, especially in a game that's pure social skills like this one.

So to sum up, I suppose I'm not entirely opposed to a Meeple launch as he's my #2, I would just rather lynch my #1. Also agree that I'd like to see more from Kilga. For all that the very idea of the Xanatos gambit theory is damn near unbelievable(as Kilga was going on Alex even harder and earlier then QR herself was, and she was being accused(rightfully so) of massive tunnel vision), I suppose it's still technically possible. And I do want to see his oppinion of the Cid case. Maybe I'm just looking at things differently because of when I came in and I'm seeing stuff that isn't there, but I don't think I am.
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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #195 on: February 28, 2008, 06:07:38 PM »
Yay for doublepost. Now to respond to rat point by point, as I figured after my last post I probably should:

-Low presence throughout the game, particularly on day 1.

Right on this one.

-Despite apparently having a stronger case against Meeple than Alex, he still chose to pressure Meeple. In particular, see the end of day 2 for how he seems reluctant to change.

I'll assume you meant "against Alex then Meeple" here because that's what I was saying. And yes. You...don't seem to agree that this is nessesarily the case, but his own arguments against Alex look alot more convincing then his arguments against meep to me.

-He's STILL going against Meeple today, and Meeple is a supposedly weak target.

This isn't an overly strong element in my case, but it is the trigger that caused me to go back and look at him more closely. At that point, I couldn't remember a blessed thing Cid had taken a stance on, and he comes out with a fast attack at a really easy target. Was enough to send off a couple of warning bells in my head and get me to examine him in detail. Call me paranoid, but eh, this is mafia.

-He is supposedly hypocritical; for instance, planning on calling out people in the sidelines when he himself is borderline lurking.

And just becuase you call someone else out for it doesn't mean you're no longer guilty of it. This is a minor tell, but it's there.

-He has a habit of tagging along on the arguments of others rather than producing his own content.

And yes, pretty much. Meeple is also guilty of this, first with Alex and now to a lesser extent with me. Though at this point in the game, Town or Scum meep would latch onto any argument that wasn't against him as he's in such a bad spot.

So yeah, you seem to have hit on my reasons, I guess you just don't find them as bad as I do.
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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #196 on: February 28, 2008, 07:59:20 PM »
Argh, shouldn't be taking time for this right now, but:

One of the reasons I'm annoyed is cause people are ignoring one of Rat's points (though I'm aware he still finds me suspicious):

That Scum Alex would never let someone pull something like that.  Scum Alex would want someone agreeing with him that wasn't a scum, so to label them.  I'll grant he probably knows that this won't quite work that way, but considering people were already suspicious of me, think about it; it'll just make me look worse the next day.

Alex isn't perfect. He's good at this, and he will tell his scumbuddies if he thinks they're slipping up, but he makes mistakes like the rest of us and I think you're overestimating how much sway can be had over another player. Just because scum can talk to each other outside of the game doesn't mean they'll work together flawlessly in the game itself. Scum disagree with each other sometimes, sometimes they do fail to pay attention, sometimes they just don't coordinate.

If you're town, the kind of assumptions you're making here are extremely dangerous in any game. WIFOM + metagaming = bad juju.

Quote
El-Cid, its been gone over in the past in other games.  Hammers are NOT a bad thing; only reason to hold off on a hammer is cause you're scum or cause you're absolutely uncertain.  If your suspicions are higher on someone else, you vote for them.  Its that simple.  Pulling the "I'll wait for people to discuss!" excuse is pretty shaky.  Its a euphamism for "I don't wanna be the one to hammer!"  You can hide behind the "I'm ready to hammer!" line, but unless you do it, that line means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

You see it as "I don't wanna be the one to hammer" because you're either so thoroughly blinded by OMGUS that you view everything I say through the lens of Cid is Scum or because or you yourself are scum looking for a mislynch to save yourself.

I mentioned this before, but you seem to have overlooked it (either because you're totally frazzled or because you're choosing not to see things you can't frame as scummy): Please explain why I would avoid hammering Alex if I was scum. The group was pretty clearly against him, the issue had dominated day two discussion, and killing a scumbuddy who seemed about to die anyway would've been a good way to earn townie cred. My reasons for not immediately voting were exactly as I said they were in my previous string of posts.

Quote
You call out on a WIFOM, but...it makes TOO easy a target to really work at the same time.  Your reasons aren't very laid out either.  You claimed I wasn't contributing (but I was), you said the mistake thing (which...is something only 2 people really felt strongly about), and there's the Alex thing.  Ok...so wait, we're holding me back to a misinterpretation from Day 1, and while plenty of other mistakes (granted, I recently made a bunch...yeah, I know I'm really looking bad now) have been made...that's the only one that matters?  So Kilga's whole claiming Rat didn't do something which he kind of did, me proving it wrong, and Kilga's then OMGUS response means nothing just cause he's arguing with Alex?  I'll grant, Xanatos Paradox, but its an example how you can't hold something against someone for THAT DAMN LONG.  No, its not "You rip things to shreds in Mafia!" Yes, and that's exactly what Scum LOVE; people rip statements to shreds to find hidden meanings in any statement that isn't there, and then they refuse to drop it.  Scum love this, you know it.   Scum also like to agitate others to get them not from thinking.  I...probably can be accused of doing that in the past few posts, butthen again, you just pulled a "Your arguments keep getting worse and worse!" thing.
I don't see your arguments working either.  No, you...aren't going against Factual Evidence.  You're twisting things around.  You were the first to vote Excal...for reasonings other than what people called out.  You voted Excal on a loose reason, left, came back...kept your vote without really giving much of a reason behind it.  Yet you're claiming you weren't alone?  No, there's a difference between people agreeing, and people going with the same vote for different reasons (see how QR and Kilga both voted Alex, but had very different reasons, at least at first.)

Responding to this paragraph requires some thread-diving on my part and I haven't got the time to do that here. However, a couple small points: "you said the mistake thing (which...is something only 2 people really felt strongly about)."

A bit of playing with numbers here. Two people agreeing on something--three, if you meant two in addition to myself--isn't an insignificant number in a game this size. Besides, does the fact of a particular argument not capturing the majority's attention automatically make it wrong? You keep repeating "Two people said this," as though it automatically invalidates the point that was being made. Important points can be missed by large numbers of people. This is more of a general point, but it bothers me how you keep repeating this statement to try and shoot down something that inconveniences you.

Quote
Hah. Meeple, I make self-deprecation a way of life. You're definitely reading too much into this line.

Quote
Much like my way of life is to keep talking and never shut up, even if I'm not saying a lot?

Not sure what the point of this line is. Are you suggesting we should ignore it when you something nonsensical just because you do it a lot?

Quote
To quote you exactly in that one post...

Quote
Alex: Fairly suspicious of him. I've gone on about this already and my feelings haven't changed. Will switch my vote from Meeple to him if it looks like we're nearing the deadline without a majority.

Quote
Meeple: I've voiced my misgivings about him. I'm not convinced he's scum, but I think he's a better lynch than most other people right now. Granted, QR's most recent post sums up his case pretty well and gives me pause somewhat. I'll reread his posts later tonight (oh, the agony--I'm sorry, but the Giant Meeple Rants give me migraines. I'm not holding this against you in terms of my vote, it's just something that needed to be said!) but for now my vote stays where it is.

You're pretty much admitting Alex is a better target, unless somehow "I'm not convinced he's scum" is a better target statement than "Fairly suspicious of him."   This post is pretty much saying that Alex is a better case, but you're leaving your vote on me just cause.  You don't give a reason why its changing, just that "better than most" but you openly admit Alex has a better case, and you don't take advantage of it.  There wasn't any worry about lynching and you know it here.  Then you call Gate on NOT doing that?

I never said Alex was a better case. This is you playing with semantics and pulling your own meaning out of my statements. Remember what you said about people reading too much into something? You might do well to go back and reread that, because you're finding a helluva lot that I never said to use against me. You were always about even in my mind; I tended to leave my vote on you because Alex usually had plenty of pressure in the first place.

Also, you completely missed the point of me calling out Gate. I did not criticize him for not voting on an obvious case. I criticized him for using totally WIFOM reasons for voting for someone else. Please go back and reread the post in question.

Okay. Meeple, you have my sincerest apologies if you genuinely are town, but it really seems like you're paying attention to nothing more than what you want to see by this point. I acknowledge that this could be OMGUS in the extreme, but any way you slice it, consistent use of exaggeration, obfuscation and a selective attention span just looks horrible. I'm not sure what else to say and it'd almost be a mercy if someone just ended the day one way or another.

Will try to address Gate/Rat stuff, but no guarantees that I'll have time before getting home.

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #197 on: February 28, 2008, 08:20:51 PM »
Update!

Meeplelard (2): El Cideon, Kilgamayan
El Cideon (2): Gatewalker, Meeplelard

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.

24 hours to deadline.
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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #198 on: February 28, 2008, 10:58:13 PM »
I hate my short attention span. Half the time I've forgotten the beginning of one of Meeple's posts before I hit the end of it. >_>

On Meeple vs. Cid: Gotta side with Cid on this one. He seems to have done a better job of defending himself than Meeple has, what with pointing out factual errors rather than using a bunch of theoreticals. (One of) the crux(es) of Meeple's argument appears to be because Cid didn't hammer Alex, but he appears to have glossed over Cid's crucial question of why Cid wouldn't hammer Alex as scum, something I've been wondering myself as I'm not sure how failure to hammer is a scumtell.

In addition, Meeple seems to be trying to keep poking at me and sewing seeds of "hmm maybe that WAS a Xanatos". I don't think I expanded enough on this initially, so let me go a bit further:

- Meeple and Rat were also heavily involved in yesterday - the whole argument would never have happened without them. Sure, two scumbuddies could have a public spat by themselves to see who weighs in where, but that would be a LOT easier to plan out beforehand. Getting an argument going with other people directly involved almost form the outset would be much harder to anticipate.
- Regardless of success or failure, a Xanatos gambit makes me permanently suspicious. There ceases to be any action I could make that would "not make sense for me to make as scum" because I've already shown I'm willing to try just about anything. Do you really think I would be willing to sacrifice my credibility for all future games for a good shot at winning this one?

As for the argument against Cid, I disagree with more of it than I agree with, but I will say that the "me too"ism charge is a decent one, and would very much be worth looking at if Meeple is lynched and flips town. The other points...

- Early low presence: Okay, sure. QR was the same way though. He also has a decent presence now.
- Seemingly inaccurate vote placement: I can sympathize with Cid on this one since my vote spent the whole day on Alex despite me spending more time engaged with Meeple.
- Continued assault of Meeple: Not only is he being consistent, but who else is he going to go after? It would take quite an effort to make a good case against Rat, Gate or myself, and he's sure not going to attack himself.
- Lurker hypocrisy: Gate's response to Rat's opinion is more related to Cid keeping a low profile (point 1) rather than Cid actually being hypocritical.

---

Rat asked me to weigh in on myself, and I've done some of that above already, but there's still the nitpick hypocrisy charge.

I consider what I did a different scenario. Switching two words or using the wrong name are legitimate brainfarts, yes. Meeple's post was different, in that the entire tone of the paragraph is lumping both yourself (Rat) and myself together. This meant one of two things to me:

- Meeple actually meant "we" instead of "I" (whereas someone who flops words or messes up a name does not)
- Meeple's brainfart lasted several sentences, including his section header ("Now, here's another thing about Kilga/Rat aspect...")

I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assumed the former. My post followed accordingly.


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Carthrat

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Re: Clue Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #199 on: February 29, 2008, 04:28:31 AM »
Kilga's post is mostly satisfying, buuuut there was one thing.

-The line on "Why would I pull a xanatos gambit in this game when it would hurt me in future games?" doesn't ring true to me at all; you might not pull such a gambit because it's bloody risky in the game itself, but people saying that sort of thing is actually one of the worst kinds of metagaming possible. You can always pull some massively convoluted scheme out and say "Look! He COULD be doing this!"- and it hardly matters what. This statement, much like Alex complaining that he's going to quit future games, has no bearing on *this* game.

<->

Re: Gate

-It's not like Meeple's posts themselves haven't been riddled with holes. The connection drawn between him and Alex isn't devoid of Meep being suspicious in and of himself, mostly via his conduct; hell, even just today, his defence has certainly made him look worse, rather than better.

-Again on Cid's case looking stronger and Alex than on Meeple- I think this is just too hard to decide, after reading through things again. It really does seem like Cid attacked Alex first in places and then tacked on an assault at Meeple near the end, but the reason the case *seems* stronger appears to be both the timing and the length. I cannot, however, say that the arguments themselves are substantially weaker, and ultimately it was a difficult call to make.

<->

I find that there's little more I have to say. I don't really think there's anything that's likely to change my mind. I've already warned Meeple about making his posts coherent, and no, I don't think it can be excused at this point, especially when even after perusal, said posts contain terrible exaggerations, too much WIFOM, and *despite* having a case on Kilga in his initial post, he basically dropped it in order to go after Cid- even though Kilga had posted but a single paragraph that effectively said "No way, I didn't do that!" Not exactly a stirring defence.

He hadn't even hinted at Cid before then. It really does seem like he grabbed Gate's argument and ran off with it.

The case on Cid is just not strong enough; the points it does make seem relatively minor or at least somewhat forgivable, given the low number of players and such. So...

##Vote: Meeple
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