Author Topic: Villainous Anonymafia - Game Over SCUM WIN  (Read 48324 times)

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #275 on: February 05, 2010, 12:51:24 AM »
Day 3 Votecount

Gorgutz (1): Potato
Gig (0): Joker
Bowser (1): Joker
Mr. Burns (4): Dr. Wily, Gorgutz, Beatrice, Edna, Dahlia
Beatrice (1): Mr. Burns
Joker (0): Dahlia

No Vote: Bowser, Dahlia, Gaston, Gig, Vegeta,
With 11 active votes in play, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

There are 54 hours left in Day 1
« Last Edit: February 05, 2010, 01:35:08 AM by Excal »

Princess Leia

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 218
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #276 on: February 05, 2010, 12:52:10 AM »
OOC: I'm bad with doing the math of scum vs town in terms of numbers. How many scum would be in this game? 3? 4?

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #277 on: February 05, 2010, 12:56:39 AM »


Goldsmith! Goooooldsmith! That's great! Fantastic! It's perfect!

Never before have I heard such a load of nonsense, and I've just been listening to Edna! *giggle*giggle* kyakakakakakakakaka!!

....

Rabbit! One minute if you will! I was just about to come to that! In short, there are three scum, almost guaranteed.

Game master, game master, Game Master! You'd tell us if we were in LYLO or pseudo-LYLO, riiiiiiiight? Of course you would! Confirm anyway.

Nathan Greaves

  • Just wants a moment of your time
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 201
  • It'll be off the record, I promise.
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #278 on: February 05, 2010, 12:58:36 AM »
No, Gig, I just didn't think Burns was scum.

Now I do though.  Dark Helmet saw Burns act on Dahlia night zero, his claim makes no sense, I eat crow.  Wow.  Hahahahahaha!

##Unvote: Bowser
##Vote: Burns
for the -1

Princess Leia

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 218
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #279 on: February 05, 2010, 01:18:14 AM »
I... damn. That's just too much, even for me. The claim is just so god damn terrible in every single way, but at the same time, him trying to distance himself from the frog-hag, despite both their death warrants being as good as signed, just makes no god damn sense. Why bother, when they're both gonna die? I suppose you could say that it was done for this exact purpose but... damn.

I'm still against lynching the old man right now. Too much time left in the day, and there are still questions about others that need answering. (Most notably, the Mason Mess still needs a little more cleaning up)

Motherf-- The more I think about it, the less certain I am of anything involving either of you two. (Clown and Old Man) You have some faulty logic there, Clown. The red head was killed Night 1, not Night 0. The old man could well have targeted her Night 0, and she was still killed on Night 1. Retro Rocket, from what he says, does not put up some sort of warding. There is nothing telling us, for certain, that his role claim is as shit as it sounds. And I'm still wary of you, because you seem to be grasping at straws a little bit, every now-and-then, in order to paint someone in a bad light. Damn it, that's the second person I'm gonna have to look over again.

The old man's claim to be green-thumbed at this game is contrary to his post, however. I sense absolutely no flailing in that post. Far as I can tell, it's perfectly planned, and he's saying exactly what the hell he wants to. Someone new to the game just... it doesn't feel like they should be that calm at L-2 with no other trains even being thought of beyond passively.

...Give me some more time to think this shit over.

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #280 on: February 05, 2010, 01:23:25 AM »


I'll curse bloody murder Goldsmith is the dirty fiend who's been visiting me over the twilights and tied me and my predecessor up! Old habits die hard, do they, you rapist? Kill kill Kill KILL KILL!!

Assume we're not in LYLO or pseudo-LYLO. Then Lady Bernkastel cannot have sent four agents, for we could - and almost certainly will! - be left with eight or fewer live pieces, so even with Dahlia's crushed face zombie vote the threshold for lynching would be merely five, which would be instantly possible with four agents and the ever-threatening potato, should it be with a piece uncontrolled by Bernkastel, which it could. The odds are hard to measure, but pseudo-LYLO works much like Bernkastel herself: it's interested and in play so long as the odds aren't zero.

No pseudo-LYLO now, no fourth agent! Much for my impatience to ask for confirmation from the game master.


And then! Then! So long as we can decapitate an agent of Bernkastel between Goldsmith and Edna - and their internal squabbles now all but guarantees this - Then we can be certain of the allegiance of the Legion of Doom!

But but but! Only if they can confirm for us, CONFIRM For Us, that they know each other to be true. Otherwise the board is turned on its head and almost a return to the roulette should there be a need to work out which one of the triplets works for the Witch Of Miracles.


A three-pronged attack from Bernkastel from Goldsmith, Edna and Gaap? No no no, this fails, this fails! Goldsmith dead today, Edna during the twilight (or chopped immediately should she mysteriously be saved). Count the days, twilights and actions, Joker. Go on. You'll see. Edna may be around to act for Bernkastel for this twilight, but no more. With Gaap then acting as her avatar thereafter, there'll be no time for the Black Rose Of Xanatos! And too soon! Too soon! It will have run out before the game can end!


What's this? L-1 and the rabbit is around and looking jittery? Guess I'd better get this out while I can, then. *giggle*giggle*.

Nathan Greaves

  • Just wants a moment of your time
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 201
  • It'll be off the record, I promise.
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #281 on: February 05, 2010, 01:29:51 AM »
The point is that his claimed role would have no reason to be able to act at all on night zero.  No kills then.  Not only that, it doesn't gel with the Xanatos kills at all, since "sending them back to the killer" could simply be undone by the killer the next night, if Wily's claims are all accurate.

I admit I've been flailing a bit all game too and the whole Burns mess is very frustrating to me.  I never really know what to do with people playing that badly.  But this is just too much.

Beatrice, I can't make heads or tails of your post there, I'm sorry. 

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #282 on: February 05, 2010, 01:43:03 AM »


Joker!

One of your concerns was the potential set up of Edna, Goldsmith (Burns) and Gaap (Wily). This fails! Fails completely! If it's true we can let it happen!

Ten pieces on the board now. We lynch Goldsmith, Edna acts for Bernkastel and kills one during the twilight but then succumbs to the Black Rose of Xanatos. Gaap places a new Black Rose.

Seven pieces on the board. We lynch someone, and now Gaap herself must act for Bernkastel and so cannot place a new Black Rose. The previous victim from the third twilight Black Rose marking still succumbs.

Four pieces on the board. Gaap must claim to have placed the Black Rose, but has not done so! It seemingly becomes a final decision between her and whichever of her fellows she claims to have placed it on, who of course claims otherwise. But this fails for Bernkastel! In this case the correct action is to lynch Gaap regardless! Either way Bernkastel loses! Either Gaap was Bernkastel's agent, or she was telling the truth and had Black Rosed Bernkastel's agent, in which case Bernkastel's agent dies during the next twilight, only able to kill one of the remaining two pieces.

One piece too short for Bernkastel. No no no.


Read it through again but instead assume that Edna somehow survives and you'll see it fails for Bernkastel again. Even more so, even assuming that Gaap is somehow still able to place a new Black Rose on this upcoming twilight.

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #283 on: February 05, 2010, 01:52:28 AM »
There will be notice when LYLO, or potential LYLO comes about.  It has not yet come about.

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #284 on: February 05, 2010, 01:57:40 AM »
Also, word may or may not have leaked yet.  I have recently gained seasonal employment, effective tomorrow.  While I will still be able to run the game, I will not be able to overwatch as effectively as I would like.  To that end, I have asked Darkholyelf, and Halbarad to keep on eye on this.

So, they'll be doing vote counts and ending the day and all the rest of that good stuff.  Or, pausing the game if something that needs my attention comes up, and I'll give this a once over when I get home each day. (No guarantees about the mornings though).

Hopefully this won't affect the, erm...  smooth running of the game.

Nathan Greaves

  • Just wants a moment of your time
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 201
  • It'll be off the record, I promise.
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #285 on: February 05, 2010, 02:11:19 AM »
Right, right, I see now.  But that rests on the assumption that we compel Wily to continue using his Xanatos kill late in the game, which... sounds like a pretty bad idea offhand except to disprove him being the last scum.  Unless he just fixes it on alternating nights and so doesn't actually kill anyone else?  Ehhh okay, sure, I can go for that.

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #286 on: February 05, 2010, 02:16:10 AM »


Or was any of the rest unclear as well? Surely it is clear that not being in pseudo-LYLO now removes the possibility of a fourth agent from Lady Bernkastel! Surely it is clear that if we can be sure of only three such agents and one of them dead at our feet in the form of Edna and/or Goldsmith ensures that the Legion of Doom is completely clear so long as they are well branded! The construct is so simple!

And there! Game master, my thanks. *giggle*giggle*. I was sure of it anyway, but this frees me to use the red truth. There are no more than three agents of Lady Bernkastel on this game board!

So much to fall out depending now on so few words and actions! A thrilling time to be about!


Rabbit! Goldsmith is claiming to be a power superior to that of a doctor, when we already have a doctor confirmed, no matter the fact that he was working for Lambdadelta! I personally know for certain that George was protecting me as a doctor, as well. Not to mention that town already seems overpowered without such a claim, and all tied up in a pretty bow that is the silly name! Such a silly name. His actions are from resignation, it all fits. The only unreal thing here is how daintily both he and Edna have gone out of their ways to offer themselves up on a silver platter.


...

Joker! And why ever would we not be making use of additional kills at least laid to offer at our feet? For fear that with a kill we draw the game to a close more quickly? Then why, we should stop this filthy lynching business as well! *giggle*giggle*!

Nathan Greaves

  • Just wants a moment of your time
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 201
  • It'll be off the record, I promise.
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #287 on: February 05, 2010, 02:28:11 AM »
Some case is bothering me though. 

Ah yeah here it is.  If Wily is town and delaykills a scum, the scum could lie and say they aren't slated for death, leading us to a 50/50 on "Is Wily the last scum and actually unable to delaykill".  Thoughts?

Chiaki

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #288 on: February 05, 2010, 02:31:02 AM »
Quick note: Yes I trust my fellow warriors; I assumed Gaston made that clear enough so I wouldn't have to bother my great Saiyan self with such trivialities. You would be sentenced to death on Planet Vegeta for such insolence! I wouldn't have stuck my neck out for Warboss on D1 otherwise.

Congratulations, Lord Frieza (Excal).

Right, time to READ.


I feel bad about direct linking to stolen art, but the pic was too cute to ignore. And Vegeta never reads! He's too manly for that.

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #289 on: February 05, 2010, 03:05:56 AM »


Already covered, Joker! Read read read read read! Take the previous case and reverse the guilt! So easy so easy soooo boooooring.

In such a case, lynch Gaap. She's innocent, oh dear! Why would that stop the Black Rose? I suppose you may need to have her confirm that to make this solid, but it seems clear enough that the Black Rose would not require her to live to enact its beautiful death on Bernkastel's agent. At worst, should this happen with three players left, this leads to mutual annihilation as Bernkastel loses her final agent as it kills the other remaining piece. However, we're currently paced to hit that with four players, which would leave Bernkastel a piece short and the game loss to her name.

Any earlier than that, and we have the space to lynch the piece claiming to be Black Rosed and lynch Gaap should it result in an 'innocent' flip. There's a lynch going spare in the previous designs. There it would go.


In fact yes, it's simple. Forget the timing otherwise. Out of mind. Irrelevant. If Gaap is alive with two agents down and her latest target feigns ignorance of the Black Rose, then it is safe (or at worst mutual annihilation) to lynch Gaap, as she either is the remaining agent of Bernkastel, or is about to kill the agent. The trouble with the timing - the key here being two agents dead by the time the fourth twilight begins - is that without that condition Gaap will be able to maintain the Black Rose of Xanatos long enough even if she is working for Bernkastel, something that doesn't definitely resolve.

Which is why it definitely resolves if Bernkastel's three agents are Goldsmith, Edna and Gaap, but not immediately for all sets of three containing Gaap.

Okay.
So.
That answers your question.
But.
Doesn't answer the extended, implied question.
No, Gaap seemingly cannot be cleared through red text alone.
Maybe I'll think more and see what else drops out. Such puzzles have ever intrigued me, and this can be no harder than the epitaph. *giggle*giggle*.

There are other random machinations that can happen, for instance the new Black Rose being placed on the same person Lady Bernkastel's agents kill that twilight. But such bizarre acts only serve to waste their potential mis-lynches and limits the rate of dead innocents, so can only lead to a swifter loss for Bernkastel.


...

Vegeta! I shall take that as a yes! The wording isn't the best, but you must be aware of the importance. With that confirmation and Edna and Goldsmith's squabbling I now officially declare you all but completely cleared in my book. Just one Bernkastel flip to seal the deal with wax, but I am so very sure we are hitting at least one now.

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #290 on: February 05, 2010, 03:28:01 AM »


Gaap! Gapgapgapgapgapgapgapgapgapgapgap!

Were I to have my way, I would have you use the Black Rose of Xanatos on Joker tonight, or maybe the rabbit. Would the latter even make sense? Could he summon himself out of it? Anyway! My point is that I largely suspect one of Bernkastel's agents to have a role active during the day so that he can deal the killing blow during twilights, which could potentially be the rabbit but looks far more likely to be Bowser. Bowser's right near the top of the chopping block anyway.

But.
I don't want you to Black Rose Bowser.
I want him available for lynching.
Why? Why?! Insurance against you. Just to be safe!
If Goldsmith and Edna both turn out to be working for Bernkastel then all is well, but if only one of them is loyal to her cause then I want to maximise the odds of two of her agents being dead before the fourth twilight is upon us.

I'm sure you'll be understanding. *giggle*giggle*!

Princess Leia

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 218
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #291 on: February 05, 2010, 03:48:51 AM »
Yo, old hag. Have you gone off your rocker? You're making no sense anymore. All you do is babble to yourself, day in and day out... You're worse than four-eyes!

Anyway, I just came back to see if there was anything else we needed handled today, or if we could get on our way?

By the by, don't even think of putting me in a Xanatos Gambit. It'll be a waste of time, since I'll just summon the kid out of it!... or someone else to take my place. (Not quite sure which side of the coin the mod has the summoning at) I say, if we're going to direct the Xanatos, we do it on somebody that will undoubtedly end up being a boon to the town... in their death, that is. Though, I'm not one for planning where to throw a plan.

Hag, speak clearer.

Tohsaka Rin

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 186
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #292 on: February 05, 2010, 04:23:36 AM »
I have operated under the assumption that my attack order would not be reversed by my death, and that my target would indeed be eliminated.

I was going to target Slash Man tonight given I trust him the least of those not slated to die today, but I can get behind hitting Clown Man's emergency destruct button, he's said some very odd things today that have me trusting him a lot less than I did yesterday and the Slash Man push looks unproductive at best (also giving Charles a pseudo-pass for being new is barely different from me giving Gendo a pseudo-pass for playing so differently from his normal scum game, there's nothing saying the apprentices have less of a chance of drawing scum than the masters). Never planned on targeting Gig (though I fantasized about it and how satisfying it would be were it feasible) because I assumed - apparently rightfully so - that he'd just undo it.

Nathan Greaves

  • Just wants a moment of your time
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 201
  • It'll be off the record, I promise.
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #293 on: February 05, 2010, 04:44:32 AM »
I would prefer Beatrice be the target.  Beyond the obvious "Uh don't kill me dude thanks" reason, I don't like her tone in the slightest.  Her roleplaying does nothing to hide her being extremely smug, too smug for a townie right now I think.  She's:
- supporting what is essentially a plan of chaining lynches (never a good idea)
- and directing the vig (also never a good idea, especially for a vig of unknown allegiance and unusual mechanics at that)
- is clearing the masons (which I think is horribly premature)
- and has always been in front of the game yet I can't actually finger her with any major decisions. 

Reviewing the reasons my brain defaults her to "townie-ish," they consist of "talks a lot" and "was roleblocked."  But no one we know of was roleblocked night zero, I was definitely roleblocked in some form by Light (by his own admission if you don't believe me!) and the information I got about it was vague, inconclusive, and doesn't match any of her claims.  She avoided Dark Helmet's train and stayed on Gorgutz until the mason claims, then followed their lead day 2 to the present.  Never even brought her up before due to lots and lots and lots of distractions, but the more I think about it and the more I read back on her the worse I feel. 

Chiaki

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #294 on: February 05, 2010, 04:46:19 AM »
My scouter has calculated that there is a high probability of a Burns/Edna/x scumteam, where x is one of Joker, Bowser, Beatrice, or either Gig or Wily (roughly in that order).
Gig's D2 actions were super scummy, but the meta is clearing him (as much as I hate to rely on role meta in a game like this). The possibility of Gig and Wily on the same team boggles my mind.
Beatrice reads town to me.
Burns/Edna case is obvious, no need for rehash, it's all been said before.
I'm hazy on the others.

I'm really not feeling too good IRL, so I probably won't be back on the computer again today. Ugh.

Bill Hellsnake

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 270
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #295 on: February 05, 2010, 12:32:53 PM »


Oh how the worm twists and turns and writhes and burns! Such desperate lashing in agony... are you sure you're thinking straight? *giggle*giggle*.

You wish to direct the Black Rose to me for trying to direct the Black Rose? Kyakahahahaha!

Would Bernkastel be shutting down so many avenues of doubt, trapping herself ever tighter in her own machinations, slowly suffocating the life out of her? No, I rather think her preferring to see the doubt spread yet further, much more like your own play.

'But Great Lady Beatrice, it is wise to consider all of the possibilities!'? No no no, that's not what's happening here. Spreading doubt within the possibilities, oh yes, how cautious, how wise. But spreading doubt in the impossible?

How is the Legion of Doom not clear? They've claimed to be completely clear from within. There are no more than three agents of Lady Bernkastel on the game board. They can only be the entire force that Lady Bernkastel has sent or all true to the cause. And look, look! Look at Edna and Goldsmith! Look at their wretched remains, not only horrible in their own right, but strangling each other as they lie. Can you look upon that scene and tell me that there is no influence from Bernkastel there?

And no, of course you won't, for your vote lies now on Goldsmith. What you want to sow is more doubts that perhaps there is but one member of the legion to doubt. An impossibility. More doubt. More options to mislynch. More escape routes and secret passages. No no no No NO, I say to you this is wrong.

You speak ill of me out of place, and most wildly. Need I even respond to more of it? I scent sweet, sweet desperation in the air.

Excal

  • Chibi Terror That Flaps in the Night
  • DL
  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 2603
  • Let's Get Adorable
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #296 on: February 05, 2010, 02:39:50 PM »
Alright, I think I was expecting there to be more to do, but here goes, likely the last update before busybusybusy.  Which just means I'll be seeing you guys again around 11:15 or so my time.

Day 3 Votecount

Gorgutz (1): Potato
Gig (0): Joker
Bowser (0): Joker
Mr. Burns (5): Dr. Wily, Gorgutz, Beatrice, Edna, Dahlia, Joker
Beatrice (1): Mr. Burns
Joker (0): Dahlia

No Vote: Bowser, Dahlia, Gaston, Gig, Vegeta,
With 11 active votes in play, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Mr. Burns is still sitting at L-1, and I will pre-emptively send his flip to Hal so that you guys can make informed night decision choices in the case of day end while I am gone.

There are 38 hours, 20 minutes left in Day 3.

Zerg Rush

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 71
  • Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke!
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #297 on: February 05, 2010, 02:40:15 PM »
I'z seein' dat dat witchy girl i'z half da game, explainin' all dat deduktive logik stuff. I'z sorta seeing da jokah's GUT which iz fine, she'z lookin' to make as much prezence as possible. But I'z only got two extremes 'ere thanks to da others in da game; constant prezence or no prezence. Wat's da deal? I'z thinkin we can safely lynch all da most likely suspects now anywayz, and by dat I mean, beatrix, joker, and bowza (az well as burnsie and edna who are dyin' anyway, roight?) Dere's all dat worryin' about lining up a lynch I guess, but it'z wot I'm thinkin' anywayz.

Az for dat potato, I'z gonna toss it away on someone we'z likely ta lynch next turn, probably dat bowzer.
Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke! Kekekeke!

Tohsaka Rin

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 186
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #298 on: February 05, 2010, 03:32:40 PM »
I plan on targeting one of Clown Man and the witch for termination tonight, and I feel Slash Man looks worse than Gig, so yes, throw it there.

Chiaki

  • Denizen
  • *
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
Re: Villainous Anonymafia - Day 3
« Reply #299 on: February 05, 2010, 03:33:44 PM »
Right, back now. Considering hammering, since not much has happened. Any objections?