VALIANT HERO Mafia! [World is Saved]

[Chiaki]

Preparing an unofficial one for convenience, and also because I posted a huge case and forgot to actually vote. <_<

[Helga Pataki]

Vote Count, Fellow Heroes!:
Batmanuel(3): Kirk, The Tick, The Flay, Axel
Hazel(-): Gordon
Hilda(2): Almaz
Kirk(2): Batmanuel, Gordon
Middleman(2): Hazel, Kirk

[Richter Belmont]

The pizza's still not here?  It's been an hour.  Legendary 30 minute guarantee indeed.  That'll teach me to try something other than hot dogs.

Hey everyone.  You all owe me 15,000 gil.  See, you borrowed the money from me years ago, then forgot about it, but now I'm going to collect.  With interest.

Ohmygod the latest Galbadia Railfan issue is in!

I think I need some time for myself.  Alone.

Hey, Squall!  I'm off to visit my wife's lovely beachfront cottage for the weekend.  You're in charge around here.

Didn't I just graduate only two months ago?

You'll do fine!  Just keep an eye on the others and do some votecounts.

...whatever.

Brief correction to Flay's votecount: Hilda only has one vote on her.  You'll have to do better to graduate mercenary school, tsk.

Batmanuel (3): James T. Kirk, The Tick, Flay, Axel
Hazel (0): Gordon
Hilda(1) : Almaz
James T. Kirk (2): Batmanuel, Gordon
The Middleman (2): Hazel, James T. Kirk

No votes: Almaz, Axel, The Comedian, Flay, Gordon, Smax, The Tick
Hasn't voted: The Comedian, Smax, Hilda, The Middleman
Pizza delivery: Slower now
(Yes, this is SnowFire filling in while Yoshiken is out.)

[Helga Pataki]

Brief correction to you as well, Squall, but I believe I do have a vote down!

[Helga Pataki]

Err, wait. Scratch that. Misread. Sorry. (Anyway, decent-sized post coming once I can finish getting my thoughts down)

[Tohsaka Rin]

Bats, people aren't voting for you just for information. I don't know how you can say that when you were also up for lynching yesterday and such arguments weren't flying around then. Plenty of us think you're scum for other reasons and what information we'd get from lynching you is a useful bonus. It bothers me that you seem to brush away the first two days' events by saying the folks voting on you now are just doing it for info and are scummy because of that.

Prinny and Planet being with you on the Flay train does nothing to clear you. This is a box of WIFOM (what? It comes in a box sometimes) and no one should be pushing it. I could quote Axel here but that was a damn big paragraph so I'll just sum up: scum can and do botch things up and I think it's already clear that's what happened with the Flay train. You can't find absolution in saying "There's no way scum would have three people on that train." We know it was a disaster for scum; why is there an obvious limit to how much of a disaster it could be?

Kirk's sudden switch to Middleman makes no sense to me, though, and this gives me pause. And at the same time Gordon gives us barely any reason for voting on Kirk. One line, Gordon? Really? Is there something else you've said about him that I missed? 'cause I sure don't remember seeing a case before now.

Bluh. I'm voting Bats for now for longstanding reasons and because if I don't vote for someone I'll keep running in circles. And also because, yeah, if Bats flips scum then it looks likely to me that Middlemook is too.

##Vote: Batmanuel

If you want a way out of this, Bats, make a good case. You've started one on Kirk, who I admit looks a little funny. Build on that and we'll see where it goes?

And also...Hazel, I know you said you had no obvious reason to be confident in in Bats, but if you could read back and see what made you feel that way, it might help me make up my mind here. I don't like seeing people say they trust someone just based on a feeling, of course, but it helps that you've stuck to cases that turn up scum and haven't done anything to make me suspect you. So, I'm gonna ask you to do some thinking and back this up.

Throwing in another "Where the hell's the Comedian?' at the end here because there can't be too many of those, right?

[Helga Pataki]

Alright, screw the RP for a bit while I just jot down my ideas.

First off, I'm looking at Kirk and Gordon kinda funny now as well (Though, really, the only people I'm not keeping my eye on are dead, my fellow mason, and Axel). They haven't really managed to recover from the previous cases on them, which I've been trying to look past until we knew more about the train situation. Gordon's had more than enough placed on him to warrant the suspicion, but what really brought me out of my hole was, well, two things, really.

1. Look at the beginning of Day 3. Their little squabble there has a few things tossed in there that feel so... needless. And wrong, but not in a false way, per se. (Also, at this point, I rather strongly believe the scum will be trying whatever they can to distance themselves from each other, should there be more than three) At first glance, it seems like a normal enough conversation. But then I began looking at it a little closer, and, well... first off, Gordon saying "Let's put pressure out there NOW in case this theory ends up wrong, which we'll only find out if we lynch one of Middleman or Bats, meaning that it would only matter tomorrow!" Uhh, what? Next up is Kirk's mentioning of "Why he's on Ears." I can't quite place it, but that just... bugs me. It's got something to do with the mentioning of Gordon. Feels... out of place? Not quite sure. Hopefully it'll come to me eventually.

2. Kirk has been a little... odd. He's been agreeing with me and condemning with me as though he has (almost) as much conviction as me! I mean, read his posts. He sounds quite certain. And yet... I dunno. He continues to vote Batmanuel every single day, and I can't tell if that's because of dedication or not. And... ergh. So far, we've had Gordon on each lynch, and Kirk off each lynch. This is really unsettling, but I can't think of a good reason why. Kirk just really seems... off to me. And he keeps throwing in distancing measures, too, as if to say "Oh, hey, Gordon is cool guys" while at the same time trying to have nothing to do with him. In fact, his post here directly contradicts his little squabble (and yes, it still seems like a squabble to me) at the bottom of page 11. The one I linked to earlier. They squabble, and... OH! I know what seemed off! His Gordon thing at the very bottom of page 11 bugs me, because it's more of him saying "Gordon is cool!" while keeping his distance.

Thinking that at LEAST one scum is hiding among Gordon, Kirk, Bats, and Middleman. Would rather see Bats lynched, because honestly? I'm tied among my suspicions here. Bats is proving to be suspicious to me because of terrible posts (as far as I'm concerned), and Gordon is... well, there's been more than enough talk about him. >_>
Kirk is hitting my Big Red Button for seeming... wrong. Like, filthy kind of wrong. I just... I know something's not right, there! I just can't point it out... ergh. I'm gonna keep looking this over. And Middleman, well, aside from seeming somewhat off, my biggest case on him is that scum tried to save him by piling up on me. 

So, I'd rather see Bats killed because as far as I'm concerned, should there be 4 scum, and Bats is one of them, he's with Middleman. Just... almost certainly. More ideas that come to mind are Gordon/Kirk (mostly because Kirk has been breadcrumbing "Gordon's cool, guys!" throughout today, if not other days). Those are the ones that stand out most to me, but there are other various combinations that could be going on, of course. (Sorry, in a rush to get everything out before I forget the important stuff)

Oh yeah! Another reason I want Bats lynched is because, in case nobody else has noticed, he's been on the chopping block, and escaped, both days, now. And here he is, about to get off with Kirk taking his place. (This does put me at a very bad feeling for a Kirk/Bats team, as well as the hyper-focus that's been going on. But I am willing to consider game-long bussing/distancing here)

[Helga Pataki]

Ergh. Once again, Comedian completely slips my mind. Gonna put a call out to him, and ask him to either start contributing, or not be surprised if he comes back one day to find a train formed on him.

Oh yeah. Order of lynch preference: Bats > Gordon > Kirk > Middleman > Comedian

The differences are incredibly slight, and only exist because of how much information I can wring out of them.

[Asuka Langley]

Kirk's sudden switch to Middleman makes no sense to me, though, and this gives me pause. And at the same time Gordon gives us barely any reason for voting on Kirk. One line, Gordon? Really? Is there something else you've said about him that I missed? 'cause I sure don't remember seeing a case before now.

Where I'm from, posting walls listing suspicions about 5 people only achieves two things.
- People accuse you of trying to give yourself places to run in the event of a bandwagon swap.
- This is assuming anyone reads the damn thing.

So I apologise for not writing about everything that comes to mind like Hiro did. I prefer being precise, readable and relevant to being over-informative and incoherent.

[Helga Pataki]

* Flay Gunnar smacks himself upside the head

Wow. Ok, I seriously need to get more sleep. Please bear with me until I do. Anyway, on that list of targets, please swap Kirk and Gordon. >_<

[Tohsaka Rin]

I'm not sayin' you have to post a damn wall to get the point across. It's just, this is day three, there's gotta be something more than a single line of text out there to back up your vote. That's not concise, it's just vague.

[Over 9000]

I know I'm popular, but geez... Sorry if I have things to do outside of this.


Bah.. the more I read, the more I get confused. So allow me to make this short.

Day 2, masons appear. They can only confirm this between each other, and they actually were right on Planet. Sure, Flay's around, doing all the work. Makes some sense too. But where's the flea? Living Flay to do all your work? You're both on the Bat-train, but as far as I can see, out of the two of you, the flea voted first, leaving Flay to clean up after him. My theory: You're both scum, trying voted off Planet to furhter your claims as masons, giving you a free ride til the end. Sure, Flay's reasoning isn't too bad, but thanks to that I forget about the flea. Something's not right here.

##Vote: Tick

[Asuka Langley]

I'm not sayin' you have to post a damn wall to get the point across. It's just, this is day three, there's gotta be something more than a single line of text out there to back up your vote. That's not concise, it's just vague.

- Kirk was present on absolutely none of the scum wagons, holding to Middleman and Manuel through all three days.
- There was the semantics argument with Saber, which was followed up by her death. (This admittedly isn't a strong point, but I'm not sure why scum chose to kill Saber when other people were considered more viable than she was.)
- The insistence that not only is it possible for Manuel, Prinny, Planet and Middleman to all be scum, but that this is highly likely. Walking into mislynch territory here.
- Looking back to my best friend Prinny, as he falls under suspicion the Saber/Kirk argument goes from being complicated and annoying to 'a necessary evil'. Why the sudden change of heart?

Um...Jennifer just sent me this list through Galactafax. Will that do?

Comedian: Are you taking into account that not only were they right about Planet, but Tick was one of the first people on Prinny near the end of D1? So in that case it'd be one scum claiming mason along with another scum who he had made a deliberate effort to defend while the rest of the scum had made a deliberate effort to get him killed. In short, they'd risk the entire game on the results of the D1 lynch.

Sounds pretty ridiculous to me.

[Tohsaka Rin]

That's, uh...that's pretty out there, Comedian. Why would Prinny and Planet have been going after Flay day 1 if they were all on the same side? Prinny got lynched in large part because Flay's response to those votes was so energetic. The only way this idea of yours works is if everything scum did through the past three days was one huge conspiracy!

MY MIND REJECTS IT.

[Tohsaka Rin]

- The insistence that not only is it possible for Manuel, Prinny, Planet and Middleman to all be scum, but that this is highly likely. Walking into mislynch territory here.

I guess where we differ is that I think that is possible. Other points are valid, I just wish you'd included 'em up front.

[Helga Pataki]

...uhm, what? Ok, either you're scum trying something incredibly desperate (and, come to think of it, that would somewhat explain why the two confirmed Townies were left alive last night...) or you're just a townie who's thought himself into a very, VERY bad position.

I will point out that there was no "mess to clean up" today, as the Day 2 cases had help up against Bats and not been disproved. Next, might I point you to the part where today is the only day that he's gotten a vote off on someone before me? (Someone we aimed to lynch, that is) Also... are you seriously trying to vote off Tick because he isn't able to be around much? Kinda like you just claimed? No, seriously. I'm wondering. Because if you were serious about this, it would make far more sense to attack me. I'm the guy who's been out front, giving the masons cred, starting the trains, etc. Out of the two of us, I'm the figurehead, effectively. Why not cut off my knees and make me fall on Tick? "This guy is doing this to earn cred!" is a much more effective argument than you just pulled out.

Yeah, alright. Comedian, you're just convincing me of your own doom, here. That post feels like flailing, only... there's no train on you. You've been called out to show up and have something to say, not to present a case right away. You could have said "Give me a bit to look things over, I've been busy" and then looked things over and found a real place to put your vote. Quite easily.

Guts still say Kirk or Bats, but head is screaming Comedian. Gonna go rest up on this one. Might or might not be back within the next 20 hours. Got a field trip planned on a glacial mountain.

------------------
Jammin' Ninjas!
Yeah, not much to say here. Though Kirk didn't put any real pressure on Middleman Day 2, Gordon. No vote. Though, yes. He does continue mentioning him in passing. UGH, SO MUCH CONFUSION.

[Over 9000]

I'll be honest here. I don't have much experience with Mafia. I know there a good players here, and don't want to offend anyone. But what are the actual odds that scum get lynched during the first 2 days? Granted, my theory is a bit far fetched. But it's still a possibility.

[Asuka Langley]

I guess where we differ is that I think that is possible.

Possible? Yes. Likely to the extent where we can outright neglect the tentative clears wagon lynches give us rather than look at other scummy targets? Not so much.

On that note, why was Middleman not worth pursuing yesterday and worth pursuing today? He's flipflopping on the case somewhat.

[Tohsaka Rin]

Comedian: I admit, anything's possible. But that doesn't mean it's realistically the answer here. Town nailing scum the first two days doesn't happen often, no, but it doesn't need a wild scheme like this to explain it. I've said this before, but personally I think scum just screwed up, made some bad calls, and paid for it.

Gordon: I'm reconsidering it in light of Planet's flip, yeah. If Prinny, Planet and Bats were all scum, then I think it's pretty glaring that they were trying to take the heat off one of their own. And I've said this before, but I think Bats is a scummy target, otherwise I wouldn't be after him.

[Alice Margatroid]

Comedian is crazier than me.

Unfortunately being retarded is a null tell (though scum have done a great job of it this game).

I take offense to Comedian saying that I've been screwing things up whilst Flay did all the work. I was fighting captain planet way before it was cool, let alone without me, Prinny and Flay might have gone a different way. In short, stop ignoring my awesome achievements dammit!

Gordon: When someone does a ragequit, there's apathy towards lynching them. That's what happened with middleman, for me at least. After someone quits, well it doesn't matter how bad they play. He could still be scum (and a lot of scum tend to slip through on "bad towny play" lately).


I think a Bat lynch is still the best way to go.

[Nathan Greaves]

People talking about me in regards to thinks I do not understand! What is this!

Hilda says she agrees with Flay-rah about me? When did Flay-rah talk about me before you posted that? His posts are long, yes, but I have read them, and I see no mention of myself in them. Hilda also does not like my paying attention to trains. Not sure why this is, trains are the most solid pieces of evidence we have so you can be sure I'm going to be paying attention to them! They're certainly not the be-all-end-all (a viewpoint I display in my change from Almaz to Gordon) but they're still more concrete than anything else.

Also I am very aware that Batmanuel had more votes when the Man in the Middle voted for Planet. In fact I acknowledged this myself! I believe that particular placement is what gave the Man in the Middle the chance to get away with a bus, a chance he threw away by executing it so poorly.

Smax going back and forth on his assessment of my opinion on Batmanuel? Strange, since I thought I'd been clear about it, but okay. I believe Batmanuel is worth voting for because he's been wrong twice and was a cheerleader for the Prinny train. I also think, however, that a lot of the cases brought against him concerning his word choices do not have the same merit, as I, at least, have been able to understand what he's been saying. (Apparently Hilda has too! Glad I'm not the only one.) This is why he's more toward the end of people I want to see lynched.

The Comic's Tick case is too crazy to be scummy. I'll buy the guy just being flat-out new, there are a pawful of better ways I can think of for scum to deal with the Tick/Flay-rah team than trying to get them Paranoia Lynched.

[Chiaki]

Sorry, the Middlebus lost communications in mid-post.  I apologize for offering to create the votecount and failing.

Thanks for coming, Comedian! I'll have to read over what you have to say more closely than the skim I just did, but I feel like saying this tangentially because it was kicking around my head during Night 2 and I wanted to get it out so I can STOP thinking about it.

::WARNING:: The following is total stacked conjecture and hypotheticals and at this point, I do not believe it to be the case. ::WARNING

Assuming the Mason claim is an amazing scum gambit, Flay is most certainly the godfather. I've always personally thought that if you can manage to sit back, relax, be the bestest townie and ignore the fact that you're scum while being undetectable, you have an excellent chance at winning. It's obvious that Flay and Tick have been teaming up, and I still am terribly annoyed by some Tick!Posts- whenever someone says "no need to talk further" in a Mafia game it redflags. All I'm saying is that if we do have a cop, a Flay investigation will almost certainly be town, and it's something to consider if we ever get to LYLO

::WARNING::

THAT BEING SAID- I do believe right now that Flay and Tick are as they claimed. I'll read over Comedian the newposts, but they and Hilda have been guilty of serious lurksauce. Now to stand behind my case from earlier:
##Vote Kirk

[Tohsaka Rin]

Oh, bluh. Hazel, I meant to address Hilda with that paragraph. Sorry for making you spend time on stuff you've already said. I think this is ample evidence that I need to get some rest, so that's just what I'm gonna do.

[Princess Leia]

Hey, bunch of posts since I checked in last. Let's run through things and just talk about stuff as I think of it here.

Alright, come on Comedian. I know you're trying to be a funny guy here but that's a pretty lame joke. That would be a hell of a thing to set up, and while Flay being just that level of criminal mastermind would be awesome for fla(y)vor reasons, I'm not buying it. Flay was near the top of my town list before the mason claim, and frankly the fact that it was Flay that Tick was claiming masons with is the big reason I believed it so fast. If this is a scum plot, then consider me suckered.

Smax seems to have covered my thoughts on Batsketball's 'info lynching is scummy' statement just fine.

Kirk, I gotta admit he's been flying under my radar more then he should. He's not lurking or anything, he just doesn't seem to really be part of all the major stuff going down so he slips my mind. Well, except for the night phase stuff. That could be dangerous, he's getting alot of attention now so I should give him another look myself.

So I'm back around to the Bat/Middleman information thing again. Here's how my thought process is going right now, to get it out there.

First scenario, we lynch Bat:
Bat flips scum = Middleman has got to be scum. Think that one's pretty obvious.
Bat flips town = Middleman could still be scum. See the logic in my previous post for this.

Second scnario, we lynch Middleman:
Middleman flips scum = Bat is probably scum, but could still well be town. Prinny/Planet taking advantage of Hilda/Bat already being on Flay to create the second train is just as possible as Bat/Planet/Prinny all jumping on Flay when only Hilda was on him.
Middleman flips town = I now have no idea what Planet and Prinny were trying to achieve, and I'd really doubt that Bat could be scum as well. There would be no point in trying to build up that Flay train if Middleman was town.

tl;dr version: I think that ScumBat/ScumMiddle, TownBat/ScumMiddle and TownBat/TownMiddle are all possible, in that order of likelyhood. I don't think that ScumBat/TownMiddle is a likely comibination at all.

I think that no matter what Bat flips, Planet and Prinny being scum is enough to implicate Middleman. The fact that only Kirk seems to have picked up on what I was getting at in my last post has me second guessing myself though, so I'd like to hear more thoughts on it. So here we go, I've spelled it out, is there some logic flaw here that I'm just not seeing? Either way, I'm voting either Batmanuel or Middleman today, I want this mess settled and not looming over us the whole damn game.

But for right now, I'm going to follow my own logic train and do this.

##Unvote:Batmanuel
##Vote:Middleman

[Alice Margatroid]

By my count, it's now a 3 way tie at 3 votes between Bat, Kirk, and Middleman.

Bat > Middleman > Kirk in my books.
I don't see Kirk as scummy.

2/3 of the votes on the Kirk train are from Bat and Middleman, lol. Gentlemen, operation: scumtrain has been a failure, please give up now.

If somehow Kirk is in danger of being lynched at any point, I'll be switching from Bat to Middleman if that would lynch MM over Kirk.