VALIANT HERO Mafia! [World is Saved]

[Chiaki]

Smax, to clarify two things:

1) It would be three scum voting one person in immediate succession. That's ALWAYS risky because it's hugely suspicious, ESPECIALLY if it results in a townie going down. And it would have been in response to two votes on Prinny. It's WIFOM to say "No scum would be dumb enough to triple train on a townie day 1" but it isn't to say that it's a tactically poor move because it links three scum together should they go down in the future.

2) The second part is referring to the finale day, with my near-suicide gambit, not to the flay train. Voting myself to save myself and then dodge onto Prinny massively raised my profile, and it wasn't guaranteed to NOT get me lynched anyway- the numbers were still close. The only reasonable time to take that scum gambit (Assuming there's a cop, which I am) is if I'm the aforementioned Worst Godfather Ever.

[Tohsaka Rin]

Personally, Hilda, I'd rather lynch Bats today, for longstanding scumminess and because it'll help me settle my mind about Middleman. If Batty/Prinny/Planetty were all scum, well, that Flay train looks a heckuva lot like a diversion from to take attention away from Middleman.

I haven't talked about this much because it's not the sort of thing I think you should build a case on, but part of my problem with going straight at Middleman is that I think he genuinely expected to leave the game day one. It just...feels like an honest goodbye and he just stuck around because Hiro talked him out of it. I know this isn't real rational and it's not usually how I work, but it's been stuck in the back of my head for a long time. I will have to throw it out if Bats flips scum, which is another reason to lynch him first (in addition to all the other stuff I've said before).

I'll respond to Middlemook in a moment.

[Tohsaka Rin]

1) It would be three scum voting one person in immediate succession. That's ALWAYS risky because it's hugely suspicious, ESPECIALLY if it results in a townie going down. And it would have been in response to two votes on Prinny. It's WIFOM to say "No scum would be dumb enough to triple train on a townie day 1" but it isn't to say that it's a tactically poor move because it links three scum together should they go down in the future.

See, I think you're still mixing up how things went down. The Flay train didn't start in response to votes on Prinny. Before the Flay train started, Flay himself was the only person even voting on Prinny. What I'm thinking is that the Flay train started up to get attention off of you, and you claiming they were trying to help out Prinny all of a sudden is a weird way to address this point.

And just 'cause something's a bad decision doesn't mean it can't happen.

[Asuka Langley]

As a warning, I need to take a little side job for the next day or so in some uncharted galaxy. I'll be back before the end of the day, though, and if necessary I'll hammer Middleman.

Don't worry! Captain Gordon will return!

[Maya Kumashiro]

3 pages while I was absent?!  Reading!

[Tohsaka Rin]

I agree that Comedian looks pretty awful and would be happy to puruse that line tomorrow, but I want the Middleman/Batmanuel thing settled today. If it's not, it'll keep coming back up every day until it is.

Anyway, this pretty much sums up how I'm feeling by this point. Add in Kirk and you've got my basic list of suspects right there (Gordon's a distant wildcard who usually looks okay but sometimes just says something that makes my head turn around).

I mean, I guess there's plenty of time left in the day to turn things around if we wanted to look at Comedian, but lynching him wouldn't be my first preference. And there's also really not a lot to say. Which I admit is part of the problem with him. Lurker to the extreme, I've said that before, and the conspiracy post was just nutty. May as well go back and reread him for what it's worth (this won't take long) since I wanted to review Kirk stuff anyway.

[Chiaki]

I see what you're saying now, Smax. On one hand, Flay's a bad target since he was making a push on actual scum, on the other hand, Flay's a fine target since it seemed like a pushable day1 lynch. So if the flay train was started as a decoy to me and backfired, leaving three scum exposed... well, it still has the idea that three scum are going to vote one person to start a distraction train.

If your premise is that I'm a scum WORTH PROTECTING for my role and it was a protective train starting, the fine. But that, in my opnion, doesn't jive with the theory that my intent to leave the game was an elaborate gambit. Again, WIFOM if you like, but I wasn't hammering Prinny and there was time left on the clock- if I'm going to do something to raise my profile so high (And if I'm going to make myself so suspicious, I need to have a way to dodge getting copped), I'd at least hope to use a better gambit than that.

I'll save addressing my reasons for saying as I did once the game is over- I don't want to overly color perceptions. I'm working on an analysis on Kirk based on him saying he was going to miss the Day 2 deadline and other claims of business, but that his timing pattern of his posts doesn't jive with a Time Zone theory, which makes me think it's smokescreening.

Also, on rereading, In reference to my big sorting post, I'm moving Hilda down to Tier 3 below Hazel, and moving Axel up to the tier2/3 border.

[Helga Pataki]

Hilda: Solving the Bats/Middleman thing takes precedence for me, because, well, this is just going to stick around, and cloud up discussion. Either it's true, or it isn't. And it's something that not only completely distracts Batmanuel (he's focused pretty hard on defending himself) but a lot of the rest of us, too. the sooner we get it off the table, the sooner we can focus even harder on the other cases like, say, Comedian. Or Kirk. Or Gordon. (Or Bats/Middleman if one turns up scum) Those are the three I'm going to be looking at over everyone else tomorrow should Bats/MM be town. (Though, depending where the NK's fall, my initial arguments may be coming from Tick. So, I'd appreciate it if we left the day going for a while yet)

Middleman/Smax: You've both got it wrong. Day 1 went like this. Jokevotes, trains form (another thing that connected Bats to Prinny, idly), Kirk and Bats start coming into the limelight, trains form on them, the trains die down(Middleman-Bats connection here, as Middleman made his suspicious post by UNvoting Bats, who was tied with Kirk at 4 votes each at the time), Middleman gets to 4 votes, I make my first (serious) post of the day, taking the sole Prinny vote off and placing it, instead, on Kirk. Then, we end with Kirk at 3, and MM at 5 at the next votecount. I then make my second post, switching from Kirk to Flay, and then the train piles up on me as Middleman hits 6. MM hits 7, then I switch people's attention to the Prinny, and we hit the two trains.



Idle notes:
- Comedian attacks C. Planet out of nowhere early in Day 1, nobody has any real suspicions on him as this is during the Kirk/Bats-MM transition
- Comedian refrains from hopping onto me instead of taking the easy train
- Had Comedian hopped onto me, the entire train probably would have been a little safer, solely because of the sheer numbers
- To those (I believe just Gordon) wondering about Prinny's change of heart with the "necessary evil" bit, it was to try and condemn me.

Reading over my notes, Gordon is seeming worse (making a big deal out of Prinny's obviously smokescreen words) and Comedian is seeming a lot better. At least, he seems like a bad town to me. With iffy logic. >_>

[Helga Pataki]

(Sorry, just wanted to get that out there for you to read, Smax/Middleman. It's hurting my brain a bit to see false Day 1 actions being claimed)

Middleman: I'm really curious as to your claim. Who were your targets, what were the results?

[Tohsaka Rin]

Then, we end with Kirk at 3, and MM at 5 at the next votecount. I then make my second post, switching from Kirk to Flay,

You voted for yourself? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS.

Flay, buddy, are you getting tired? I also didn't see Middleman make a claim in that post.

[Chiaki]

Game Start (All times EST since that's what I set the forum times to)
Feb 12, 7:00 PM
Kirk appearance: 7:40 PM
Post sequence: Feb 13, 4:57 AM-9:13 AM
Short break, post 12:08 PM
Votes Middleman 3:18 PM
New post 10:53 PM
Last post of day 1: Feb 14, 7:27 AM. 36 hours to deadline.

Day 2: Opens at 5:49 PM
First post: Feb 16, 6:43 PM
Next Post: Feb 17, 8:26 AM
3rd post: 9:13 PM
4th post Feb 18, 12:39 AM
5th post 11:31 AM

End Day 2 5:50 PM

Bonus post: 07:50:46 PM

Day 3 open: Feb 19, 6:54 AM
1st post: 8:14-11:48 AM
Note: At 9:48 Kirk says: "Honestly, there's a few things I want to look at, but things are busy here at present, and so I may be a little delayed on my research." Manages to post three more times. Busy or not?)
Middleman vote: 3:30 PM.

Here's the raw data so far.

Kirk has said that time restrictions make him unable to make deadlines. Fine, but our deadlines have mostly been around 6-7PM. Where he has posted nearly every day. I think his statement day 2 is to cover for his vanishing act day 1. Not damning, but notable in context.

There is one callout I'd like to make. Axel- what do you think of Kirk? I haven't seen you comment on him... well, at all. Maybe I just missed it.

[Tohsaka Rin]

If your premise is that I'm a scum WORTH PROTECTING for my role and it was a protective train starting, the fine. But that, in my opnion, doesn't jive with the theory that my intent to leave the game was an elaborate gambit.

I'm mostly working from the premise that scum would consider any one of their number worth protecting unless they had no choice but to abandon someone. Hadn't factored roles into it or even bothered to speculate what role you might have as scum because, hell, why bother. No way of knowing what scum has ('cept that we know they don't have a silencer or rolecop any more, obviously).

[Helga Pataki]

Again, sorry for the rapid-fire posting, I'm a little strapped for time. (Not gonna post this until last-minute, though. So any ninjas in-between will be discussed in this already, or else I'll make a note of the ones I haven't)

The premise isn't that your worth protecting for your role. It's that you're scum, and there aren't many of you, so therefore it's just plain and simple worth protecting you. Besides, nobody was expecting things to turn out how they did-- Did anybody here honestly believe I was going to get my shit together, by that point?  Two posts of almost no substance. No, I was looking like a great target distraction. So, honestly? The ploy isn't as bad as people think it is. I mean, hell. I barely managed to catch the Prinny in such a bad spot. And if I hadn't gotten my shit together, I would've been ignored, plain as day. They would've gotten their lynch off. And, correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact that yours was the only train at the time of mine's creation was only pointed out Day 2, and by me. And it's not like everyone hadn't been over the votes a million times already. So assuming I had been lynched, yeah. They would've gotten away with it, most likely.

tl;dr: It was a ridiculous gambit, but we've already proven that they've taken it in some form. And if it had worked, they would've gotten away with it for, well, quite a while.

Anyway, yeah. Again: DO NOT HAMMER and all that jazz.

Smax: Sorry, meant to say from Kirk to Middleman. Oh, sorry. Yeah, guess I am a little tired. Read that as a claim. (The part where he talks about "assuming there is a cop, which I am.")

[Chiaki]

Oh yeah, not the cop, Vanilla, like I announced back on Day 1.

I guess my counter argument to that is that I see it as a way dumber move than that. Conversely, if I'm scum, it was a REALLY dumb move on my part as well.

We have until Sunday to lynch, and there's lots to talk about still. I'd appreciate an unvote from someone to prevent a speedhammer.

[Maya Kumashiro]

And you, Almaz! Why do you allow yourself to see only one line of justice!? [Is there a particular reason you've got such a bad case of tunnel-vision? I mean, I'm not accusing you of anything, it's just kinda strange is all.]

I thought I was on to something!  And by the time of posting I had already moved away from Gordon, hadn't I?  

Almaz has now been off twice and his song and dance at the end of Day 2 looked bad enough at the time and now looks terrible in light of Planet's flip

What!  Like drawing heavy attention just to preserve a squalid rolecop would be a gambit?!  I was honestly uncomfortable with lynching a copclaim, despite my misgivings about the validity.  If I was scum, would I honestly try to poke holes in his claim and go over why I don't trust it?  

defence

I don't like your venomous tone at all!  I don't care if it's infuriating when someone questions you on your behaviour!  You promise content you don't deliver, and frankly I don't give a damn whether you spend 16 hours behind a computer or not.  Saying you'll provide content but not do so is a perfectly legit way scum can abuse to fly under the radar.  

Kirk, can you explain who "tribble", "giggles", "jester" are?  

Regarding Flay+Tick scum gambit, uhhhh Flay has been very town so far and I'm not about to support a lynch based on "so town he must be scum".

Less than I'd thought I needad to respond to!  Anyway, ##UNVOTE: Hilda, thinking about it it really doesn't make sense for scum to do the things she did, even if the venomous tone really really isn't needed!

I still want to see Gordon go, but I guess I'll never get my wish!  Between Batmanuel and Middleman, uhuhuhUH do I even want to say what I think about that?  If I get it wrong I'm almost afraid it'll be another strike against me.  

[Tohsaka Rin]

Say it, Almaz. Better to have it out then have people wonder later why you didn't. And a new opinion here might be useful.

"Tribble" refers to Hazel, I think, and "jester" to Comedian (a reread of whom provided me with nothing more useful than Flay's recent analysis).

Need to take a break from this game. Back later today.

[Maya Kumashiro]

Ooookay.  I'm probably condemning myself given how the previous two days went for me (bad town, unlikely but possible cop, both flip scum) but I don't think Middleman is scum.

Day 1 play was terrible beyond blackest night but he's gone up considerably in my admirations.  Disagree with people saying that sacrificing the Prinny for him is weird, though!  Prinny's role is that of Silencer.  As I recall, a regular Silencer disallows the target from saying anything during the next day!

If someone was silenced, of course all of Town would realise something's up and it'd weird us out, but all things considered it's not a super strong role. 

Even so I don't rrrrrreally think they'd sacrifice a Silencer for Middleman, whose Day 1 was so bad it's a miracle it's taken us to Day 3 before he got lynched.

Batmanuel is a different story.  This for example.  Day 1, not against the lynch trains at the time but doesn't find either of them scummy.  The trains in question are the dwindling train on Kirk and the rising train on Middleman.  He votes Flay either way.  No problems so far because it was justifiable at the time.

But here there's the weird comment about people following his cases.  Says he's prepared to vote for the Prinny while saying Middleman is likely town;  this is weird because if you think one of the two is town and they're nearly tied, shouldn't you add weight against the one you don't think is town?  There's also the comment about "not through any fault of Prinny".  It's weird.

He later says here that he thought both Prinny and Middleman were town at the time.  That doesn't sit well with me at all!  You simply don't vote on two people you think are town, you should try to get something better!  And I know he didn't vote the Prinny, but he said he had intention to do it.  Not because he thought the Prinny did bad things, but because of vote records and thinking Middleman is town.

In this post he puts me in the same boat as him for... I don't know why, but it's creepy.  More to the point, his point 1 about the defence Gordon mentioned is weird because the last day he made a list of Gordon/Planet/Tick for his preferred voting order.

And then he relies on Gordon's words as a defence.  Almaz is sad.

And today he drops a vote on Kirk and doesn't even bother trying to convince people.  Just says "look at Kirk!" in his second post after the vote and it's altogether a very worrisome lack of devotion to getting his target lynched.

##VOTE: Batmanuel

I don't think Middleman is scum.  He's made considerable progress since Day 1 and to be honest I can't get myself to believe we'd have two scum lined up for kill on Day 1.  Even if the villains have shown themselves to be uh... (leavethatdimetherealmazfinishthethought) let's say not very competent.

[Maya Kumashiro]

Even so I don't rrrrrreally think they'd sacrifice a Silencer for Middleman, whose Day 1 was so bad it's a miracle it's taken us to Day 3 before he got lynched.

This of course is meant to be "it's taken us to Day 3 before he is in danger of getting lynched again".

Getting ahead of myself due to people talking about hammering him.

[Margaret Houlihan]

But here there's the weird comment about people following his cases.  Says he's prepared to vote for the Prinny while saying Middleman is likely town;  this is weird because if you think one of the two is town and they're nearly tied, shouldn't you add weight against the one you don't think is town?  There's also the comment about "not through any fault of Prinny".  It's weird.

He later says here that he thought both Prinny and Middleman were town at the time.  That doesn't sit well with me at all!  You simply don't vote on two people you think are town, you should try to get something better!  And I know he didn't vote the Prinny, but he said he had intention to do it.  Not because he thought the Prinny did bad things, but because of vote records and thinking Middleman is town.

You're answering your own case here, I left my vote on neither of them because I felt both of them were likely town, with Middleman being even more likely town than Prinny, and if it seemed that my vote was needed to get Prinny lynched instead of Minuteman I'd contribute it.  It wasn't needed, though.  (And I did get pulled away from the game, for which I apologized and apologize again now.)  I've discussed all this before.

Batmanuel has no real idea what to do today because a game where scum are lynched the first two days running is, like guy on guy, outside of his experience.  I think people are being shortsighted and a bit too self-congratulatory with wanting to lynch Middleman and myself now, like people are wanting to ignore evidence and go "Yeah we really are that good, all the big early trains are scum, let's go" but falling into that kind of thinking is just going to let the remaining scum back into the game. 

I'm not that sold on Kirk, I don't have much of an idea how scum would be playing at this point and I'd be more than willing to vote Comedian or possibly Almaz instead.  I do think there's most likely a scum in that group of "didn't vote on either scum lynch" though.  Kirk's expressed the most proscum sentiments what with trying to lynch Middle/me exclusively, Comedian's lurked, Almaz has at least posted intelligently and looked at voting records and I can follow his trains of thought well.

[Princess Leia]

About Kirk? Frankly, he slips my mind constantly. I remember that he's playing, just tend not to remember much of what he's said. Already said this much though, and I've got some time here so I may as well take a look over him.

Looking back over him, he appears to agree with me alot, which might explain why he keeps sliping my mind. However, actvely looking for problems is uncovering some little things that make me uncomfortable. Minor contradictions with lines like "votes speak loudly" when refering to Hilda, but then brushing off his own poor voting record as "well I'm not around for deadline". Not objectively scummy, but not really great either. Middleman's info on the post times there, assuming it's accurate, is about the same. Not objectively scummy, but not something to feel good about either.

There's also that whole "(practically) confirmed scum" line, which I brushed off as him just being super confident, but I can see how someone could think it was a slip. I don't think it was, a slip is more like Planet's "vanillia town" line, this read like the usual Kirk flavor bits being thrown in.

I'm also noticing one line of logic in a post of his that I'm not so sure about:

I think if we do want to look at who possible scum would be, our best bet would be to look at the Gordon train.  Given the way the Planet claim went down, it was a non-telegraphed claim which was also botched, suggesting that the goal was to deal with Gordon.

I disagree that Planet's last ditch vote at Gordon can be read into that fully. It was a vote thrown out with a sketchy claim, and in my opinion that makes it a big fat barrel of WIFOM, just like any other dying words of cornered scum.

That's about it, really. I think he could be scum, but he's not one of my primary suspects right now. He's got some good points, like agreeing with my logic fairly often, and some off points like what's listed above. All blurs into a fairly null read.

On another note, Almaz! You really think ScumBat/TownMiddle is a likely combination? How do you explain the Day One train on Flay, then? Three Scum(Bat/Planet/Prinny) all jumping on Flay at once when a Townie(Middleman) already had a big train on him? I can't make any sense of that scenario myself.

[Nathan Greaves]

Lots of noise recently, not a lot of meaningful stuff has been said.

Dislike Hilda effectively ignoring the three trains and voting for the Comic, the case obviously wasn't going to take today (and, surprise, it didn't), voting him is a waste of time and just looks like trying to avoid being on any of the major trains.

Dislike Batmanuel suggesting scum would have killed Kirk to shut him up, a handful of other players have been better NK targets than him including the one that actually got it last night even if Batmanuel and the Mand in the Middle are the two remaining scum.

Tick's Day 1 vote count snapshot post and explanation actually makes me want to vote Kirk over Batmanuel should the Man in the Middle flip scum. That's a pretty good find.

[Alice Margatroid]

Actually MM I think you're at L-2, not L-1.

Sorry, nothing new from me.

[Maya Kumashiro]

I'm not that sold on Kirk, I don't have much of an idea how scum would be playing at this point and I'd be more than willing to vote Comedian or possibly Almaz instead.  I do think there's most likely a scum in that group of "didn't vote on either scum lynch" though.  Kirk's expressed the most proscum sentiments what with trying to lynch Middle/me exclusively, Comedian's lurked, Almaz has at least posted intelligently and looked at voting records and I can follow his trains of thought well.

You lost me.  "Not that sold on Kirk", "more than willing to vote Comedian or possibly Almaz instead".

Then "Kirk's expressed the most proscum sentiments", "Comedian's lurked", "Almaz has at least posted intelligently [...] I can follow his trains of thought well".

Wait so if I get this right you're not sold on Kirk who you are voting for right now but you're "more than willing" to default to LAL or someone who, according to you, "has posted intelligently" and whose train of thought you can follow?

That doesn't make any sense to me.  I still don't get why you want to link yourself to me the entire time.  Earlier on you did so, now you do it again.  You can "follow my trains of thought" and yet you'd rather I die than Kirk who "voiced proscum sentiments".

Try as I might I don't get what you are trying to say here!

On another note, Almaz! You really think ScumBat/TownMiddle is a likely combination? How do you explain the Day One train on Flay, then? Three Scum(Bat/Planet/Prinny) all jumping on Flay at once when a Townie(Middleman) already had a big train on him? I can't make any sense of that scenario myself.

I dunno!  Perhaps scum didn't think the Middleman train would go anywhere because it was a lurker charge?  Heck, it's not like the villains have been acting any bit coherent this game, so don't ask me for a reasonable explanation there!

I think that they might've felt jumping on Middleman so early in the Day 1 might look bad so they wanted to present a "fresh" case, or something!  I know I'd feel wary if everyone had jumped on Middleman without a second thought.

[Margaret Houlihan]

That is not what I said and the misrepresentation there DOES make me want to vote Almaz some!

Kirk >= Comedian > Almaz for scumminess, in the group of people who were not on either scum lynch.  I am also in this group and Almaz's earlier posts seemed to express similar trains of thought to the ones I experienced, thus he is the least scummy to me out of the group.  But he is still in the group and I want to lynch someone in the group, so should support for an Almaz lynch arise from the rest of the town I'm up for it. 

Of course Almaz' latest post changes this somewhat, wherein he tries to smear me by stating my position to be that I want him dead more than Kirk, which is blatantly untrue and nowhere close to what I actually said. 

[Maya Kumashiro]

Then please construe the meaning behind "not that sold on Kirk" and "more than willing to vote Comedian or possibly Almaz instead".  If you're not sold on Kirk, why did you bother bringing him up rather than Comedian or I?  And don't give me the nonsense with

the group of people who were not on either scum lynch

, because it's completely possible for scum to be on a scum lynch, or to be on only one of the two.

You should consider lynching the scummiest player you can find, not a choice option between three people who fit a certain (set of) condition(s).  You hardly put any effort to get Kirk lynched, and supposedly he fits the top of your bill!

Who do you find the scummiest player around and who would you be "completely sold on" as a member of the villains?