A memes to an end(Meme Mafia: Game Over)

[Alice Margatroid]

I have another project deadline coming up, so I don't have a lot of time to talk further, but I wanted to clarify this before getting back to work. I appreciate the sentiments coming my way, but I am not 100% cleared/confirmed, so please don't refer to me as such.

Hopefully the box will have his new case up by the time I return.

[Princess Leia]

Right, sorry for the delay, several things took longer than expected.

Logic points me at AyB, besides which I still think Rick is more townie with a temper than anything else (though actually logic is pushing me pretty firmly towards their both being scum). While I'd like to push more at 2G1C (whom I've been unhappy with throughout, and defending the utterly horrible Bel-Air, who then flips town, certainly doesn't reflect positively on them), I'm unlikely to get anyone following theories of untrackables at this stage. So with that in mind, a big reread of the Base, from day 1 on.

First post joke. Second post reporting, the one piece of content being going after Dawg. Third post commits to nothing, says only the obvious. Fourth/fifth good, correctly going after o9k. Sixth post entirely empty, commits nothing. Seventh post, largely reporting, kind-of-but-not-really pressing cake. Eight post long-winded but good, correctly attacking me (because that was a bad start) and picking up on things that hadn't been mentioned. Kind of pushing the soviets a bit, but then withdrawing it all in post nine, which is almost all waffle.

Number ten. "Augh. Terrible posts all around." pretty much sums it up; jabs at a lot of people, but offers very little in the way of who he thinks is scummier. Does vote for C-C-C-C. Mini-post saying more nothing, then post twelve gives a couple of pretty firm opinions, going for me and air, but again, finishes this time with "Everyone else looks various shades of bad, really."

Post thirteen is an attack on me that's simply wrong. After that, though, he does start playing well; day four is fine on the whole. Messes up the start of today, but we've covered that; then nothing really until here. Big post, but only actually saying one thing that's new, this "gotcha" business - and even that's all stuff I was called on at the time. Yes, I missed combo, we know. Yes, I post a lot of theory, we know that too. Then defers his actual case to a "next post" that never arrives. Most recent post is true but by no means insightful, and asking Cake to explain his opinions at this stage seems a bit late.

And that's it. No smoking gun, but a whole lot of low content; looking at it day 4's the only time he's really substantially contributing, and that's when the roles make him prime lynch target. Roles point to a scum AyB but that's been done to death at this point. It was time-consuming enough to read back through everything posted by someone I think is very much scum; I haven't the time or the inclination to do it for Touhou or Astley (not to mention that there'd be twice as much to read for either of those), so this is all I've got; I can only hope it's enough. If it isn't, will roleclaim when required, not that there's much point.

[Helga Pataki]

While I'd like to push more at 2G1C (whom I've been unhappy with throughout, and defending the utterly horrible Bel-Air, who then flips town, certainly doesn't reflect positively on them),

And yet you won't say what parts of the defense was horrible (and no, offering a retroactive critique now that I've called you out on this part won't help). Yeah, no. Sorry, just mudslinging really really doesn't help your cause here at all!

Breakdown posts incoming. Been delayed due to my own work, but that's been wrapped up for a while and now I've got time to get things done here.

[Helga Pataki]

AYB breakdown! (If you're too lazy to read through, I'll do a tldr at the bottom, but ctrl+f to **(3)** and read that section, I partial roleclaim to put it out for reference since why the hell not at this point.

D1: Uguu! Mmm. Okay, this post deserves play by play. Using /// breakdown scheme as before.

Jump on train, but points out the time gap. something other two do not. At least shows effort. Meh. /// Hm, also the first person to point out the L-5 O9k crum, though he says it is "too awkward for scum". Okay. Dislike the meta, points for the first to point this out, cancels out again. /// 0 for the next three. Somewhat reportery, can see that claim here but not the rest of the post. /// Calls out CCCCC, and... Hum.

As for the posters which Reduce Intrinsic Motivation, why do you think 9001 Zergs is necessarily Town vs. Town? The argument is irrelevant, yes, but you imply that neither of them has done anything scummy beyond the argument. Is this necessarily true, and if yes, please clarify why you think this.

This kinda reads weird; implication of knowledge that the argument is indeed irrelevant. Checking... mmm, the argument is nearly contentless, I can see saying it. Somewhat odd but will set aside for the moment, will welcome check-backs.

Ay caramba! Comment to Shiki about confusion on O9k on his end/suspicion, calls out Soviet on the idiocy/problems with the no lynch idea (first person to go into that much detail on the flips end). Kay.

Blood For The Blood God! Skulls For The Skull Throne! Breaks down O9k's latest post, switches vote there with that justification. Commentary previous in the post is mainly scumlogicing; scum do x because they have y. It's not terrible but somewhat fallacious, presumption of what's best scum behavior when best scum behavior is "don't act as town expects you to". Also makes a decent point on Yo Dawg at the least.

"Don't drive like my brother!" "Don't drive like MY brother!" Maintains vote, calls out the Astley vote, claims the Dawg/Breaker jester commentrush is overinflation, restates (as in others have said before) that jestertheory can diaf. Mmmm. Decent enough but feels like restatement outside of Astley vote callout.


D2: USO DA! That red is a link, fyi. And... using ///.

lolcat review, turns up nothing of note. /// Waffly on Soviets, relies on metaplay some to steer away from clearing them in these two paragraphs, which makes me shaky (lolcat vote on Soviets), also uses the nonsensicality of play card they used with O9k. Mrrr. /// Accuses !cake of active lurking, pretty much. /// Lurker/activity prod.... wait, no vote? Gweh? Uncomfortable with that, seeing as how not having a vote down was part of why O9k was called out (though. Note that was -not- why AYB voted for him). Hm.

Next post of substance was Heaven or Hell? LET'S ROCK!, another /// one.

0 /// **(3)**Requesting ADoggie's logic on the roleblock clearing me for the time being. Still don't get why people didn't accept it but hey whatevs beyond that for now and running with what I've got for now (though confessionally there was no way a lynch would have gone through on me unless I had no time to stop it, on any day other than day 2 where the roleblock N1 prevented my ability from working. And yes, that's effectively me finally saying what my role does, that's about all I can say about my role without triggering it. So), anyway the request is fair enough as a lot of people weren't seeming to see it including a few people I see as clearish right now (!cake). /// Iterates the "too townie wait what?!" comments I've had about XBox's play, and the Soviet comment. /// Actually assembles a case on XBox himself, I totally missed this day 2. Wups. Sorry, AYB! And... yeah, wow, pretty much everything I called him out on, isn't it?... Now I feel silly. Mass props to AYB on this here, I feel like a reporter who's won an award for a report cribbed in part from someone else. Wish you had pressed it more, but. /// Follows up on CCCCC, this is mostly reiteration on ADoggie with some slight added push questioning-wise. /// Admits his own defense of Soviets is questionable, admits he's having problems with them, and I return to being queasy here, as you're defending your defense of Soviet here with "...yeah, it is." Granted, it's better than trying to be vehement about it... meh. Iunno. Kinda feels like me and Milhouse, I just flat-out refused to comment on him due to getting gut town because of pure meta. Blah. Iunno, don't feel good on it. Thinking. /// Does however justify why CCCCC/XBox over Soviets, votes XBox. Okay.

There's no justice. There's just me. This... this defends the Soviet feelings. And it does so actually somewhat adequately, I feel (it acknowledges the issues, which is important; he isn't letting Soviet slide so much, he sees the issues, but he's not seeing them as scummy so much. An interesting post, I'm choosing not to break it down in part because I'm not sure how to approach it. It merits actual reading and digesting; if you end up disagreeing that he's defending his own opinion here well, your call. But I think this is enough to justify it for now.

Blood and bloody ashes! More ///.

Reply to Shiki. Eh, kinda did read like you were trying to say Soviet was townie without saying as such, I kinda see Shiki's point here. But you don't actually do that, it's a reading issue here, so moving on. /// And lo, did AYB descend from the heavens and give CCCCC yet another combo-breaking slap. Yeah. This is a pretty good point, not sure it was mentioned by anyone else (check: don't think so, no). This I find interesting. /// Another XBox callout. /// Demotivator callout, which was kinda justified, honestly. /// Pressure on Russia to answer questions. Can't say I disapprove there, either. /// Comment on Touhou Hijack! Eh. /// Slapping Bel-Air for the D2 CCCCC vote, which on the one hand yes it was "I agree!" but as I said he had mentioned suspicions for CCCCC earlier, in D1. But no one seems to have remembered that. /// Mmm, comments on the NK, then says "NK can't really be relied on, 2g1c noted roleblocker" and votes for his suspicions/who's likely to go that day; CCCCC. Kay. Yes, there's a lot of pressure on a lot of people here; can't really say most of it wasn't merited, though!

Onto day 3 next post, thus far though tl;dr: AYB doesn't look that bad either really to me, you guys. Would obviously encourage you all to actually read the posts for yourselves since I'm no perfect beacon of shininess, if it isn't obvious I strongly disagree at least thus far with XBox analysis (note I did not read XBox analysis before doing this part, at least). The day 1 is scratchy. I think only ADoggie/Touhou/maaaaybe Zerg Rush/maaaaaybe Shiki have any argument at all for a good D1 this game, so whatever there. D2 at least seems solid enough for presenting arguments and being contentful/useful. His Russia semi-blindness seems to be the main issue there.

[Helga Pataki]

D3:

un pour tous, tous pour un ///s again.

Notes that Astley doesn't really clarify how he found Air, finds Air more suspicious for following Astley, handwaves the end of D2 Astley activity as not making sense for scum which makes me shaky, dislike guesstimation for "scum wouldn't act like this" personally as reasoning but I've been over this. Uncomfortable, moving on. /// Comment on the Touhou rush, which AYB is more reserved on at this point (I omit an earlier post with minimal content; link here). /// Breaks down the three cases, uses the reasoning I found myself using at the end, decides none of the three are worth pushing. /// Goes back to XBox! Reiterates points, states his suspicions. /// Comments on people he sees as okay. As a note, I disagree with the logic he uses to say Russia is cleared, and think he contradicts himself here! Yes, to me Russia was cleared as well then, but he was cleared due to being the CCCCC roleblock + the scumtrain. I can't really see what AYB was arguing D2 as clearing him, as he himself was saying that he wasn't seeing Russia as cleared yet D2 (response to Shikishana being the primary, first part of the post... here. This is an aberration, worth noting against AYB. Neutral with the rest of the post.


D4:

Ilka tulk tak! Eh. Another callout on XBox, but this is admittedly one of the ones that I'm shaky on - I disagree as well on the nightspec, but not sure where the nonsequitur comment came in on. Think AYB commented on this D4, will get to that latter perhaps?

THIS HAND OF MINE IS BURNING RED! Red is link again. /// used.

0. /// Telling XBox that rolemadness means rolespeculation is bad. ... AYB, have I really cribbed from you this fucking bad? Wow. Ouch. Regardless, moving on. /// Comments with approval on Demote case, but claims desire to want to reread day 4. Eh. Okay. In general I really prefer votes down unless it's LYLO but. /// Comments on the WIFOMness of what's going on with the scumminess of the pairings. /// Notes confusion on Bel-Air, considers him generally cleared by Touhou for now and thus goes back to "Astley's actions make no sense for scum" which is again arglhedebarglede for me as it's WIFOM kinda in and of itself (predicting what scum would do kinda). /// Comments as to a lack of a Astley case on him yet, does a general glossover of people, ends up back on XBox. /// Final part... while I go argh on clearing based on roles in role madness (which AYB maddeningly goes along with here) he at least presses for cases here.

You have been promoted to catchphrased at by a giant frog. further breaks down the XBox case, specifically the move to Demotive and possible justification for it. Mmmehm okay. Onward, there's... defense of self from the Astley case, linked here and here. I'll cover the attack when I get to Astley, seems more relevant there, but these are his posts so they're being linked here for reference.

I prepared Explosive Runes this morning. O-kay. ///s.

Breakdown of Astley! First paragraph, major relevant part is the latter, where AYB retracts his standing on Astley's end day 2 play some. /// Continuing with the next three snippets, he questions the Bel-Air trust (eh, this doesn't bother me as much; a decent point but Astley did have mason talk privilege over us, remember) and... claims that Astley is writing the case against him as if he's presuming guilt first and writing second. Interesting theory, will see if it holds up when I get to Astley, this could go either way. /// Reiterates XBox case. Hammer hammer hammer. Confessionally I don't blame him, while this is repeating what he'd been saying before no one had been paying attention. So. /// Comments with confusion on Shiki's post. Kay.

"... and that's when I tried to buy the horse a prostitute." Slams Shiki for the role madness being their pretty much entire justification for Shiki vote. Yeah, sounds like what I did, find no fault there - that was honestly really scummy.

FAWFUL HAS FURY! Nnnngh. Addresses Shiki's case fine, but engages in the theorycruft. Eh, it's not something I can seriously hold against him, I did the same for too long, but since he had been kinda adamant on mainly scumhunting this is kinda dis-spiriting.

"That's the way to do it!" Elaborates on what I see as the crummy end D2 Astley as confused town logic. Blah.

Autobots, transform and roll out! Continues to pound away on the bad logic for the Shana thing. Of note, however, is that he presses for an -actual case-. This pleases some, as that was the primary issue presented with Shana.

Bite my shiny metal ass! Righty-o. More ///.

The summarization of the XBox posts does indeed sum up an issue on XBox (wet is wet). /// The first paragraph... eh, the D3 post didn't impress much either on my end, but you know, whatever. The second paragraph pretty much hits the hypocrisy on the head, however, which is nice. /// Yeah, Shiki issues and AYB rebuffal. This makes him look a lot better to me, honestly; there's a lot of things to say but this is the sort of thing scum really don't need to say. But town do want to say it, because town talking people out of stupid decisions to try and reverse results is a good idea (c.f. Hiro/Middleman D1 Hero Mafia). /// Comments on the inanity of the Shikiplay, states comfort with Shiki lynch, notes preference for XBox lynch (note he has been pushing for this since D2. Remarkably consistent, something I'm not sure scum would need to be...), keeps vote on XBox, comments to BelAir. Eh. Frankly this all looks good and reasonable.

And that's it for relevant content. Definite disagreement and belief that XBox attack is, while not totally contentless, on the average groundless (same may not apply for Astley's, will cover that when I get there), thus very content with XBox lynch. Would like to try and figure out partner, believe it at this point to be one of Astley or Touhou. If it's Touhou, I'll be honestly quite shocked, but she's not eliminated yet. That case... it's not coming tonight, this took too long. Fortunately, tomorrow's free, mostly. It'll be up early. I'll get the response to Astley's bolded stuff up right now, though, that's been backburnered for too long. Apologies.

...nnnnngggggghhhh, and there's a lot I'd like to say right now, but I've got one other thing to front: if I die during the night when it comes, highly examine Touhou and Astley. !cake, I leave this to you; whether you be town or third party, I don't care at this point, you go earn your victory whichever you are. At this point, this is a "do not go gently into that good night" moment for me. While I've considered the possibility of !cake being scum and killing a fellow scum for credit, I consider this highly unlikely, again, for completely meta reasons (I believe I know who lolcats was, and they would not have stood for falling night 1 by any means). So, yeah. My trust now lies with !cake, mostly.

[Helga Pataki]

Link to Astley post of which I respond

But not even mentioning me as a possibility, or Bel-Air, smells far too [url=http://tracyjb.deviantart.com/art/Sheep-28677218]off[/url] to just be a verbal gaff.

He's been using his theorycruft to reduce it to those two, primarily, as I believe he replied. Not sure it can be classified under verbal gaff so much as "uh... huh" level attempts at theorycrufting/confidence, therein. (Oh, and apologies for the partial quote. I do believe this adequately represents what you wanted to say, however?)

Skipping the Touhou dialogue. There's something at the back of my mind that's niggling me there on both ends. I'll get to it in a bit, though, as it'll come up later when I'm building the final two cases and constructing one final thing I'd like to present for consideration.

As for my thing on AYB, well, I've kinda been looking at him funky for a while now, and his first post of the day is actually quite the contradiction, if you'd be so pleased as to note it. First thing he says is that you need to claim your night results immediately. This shows he's been paying attention to how we're keeping tabs on you. Then, he goes on to make a night action claim of his own, and berate !cake for using his, despite him knowing it wouldn't work. This shows that he has not been paying attention to how we're keeping tabs on you. (And as for people wondering why I'm "convinced that was what was going to happen" I wasn't. I just wanted to make sure you didn't have any sort of avenue for escape, because scumTouhou could have then easily claimed following !cake to AYB, and nobody but scum would've known it was a lie)

A decent catch on the contradiction.

Also want to point out that he mentioned having a case on XBox, which has now been lost over 24 hours past when he mentioned it would "be done very soon." And that he has posted twice since then.

And in his fairness he's had about ten cases on XBOX, none of which people actually seem to have paid any attention to but which are actually a lot like mine! Huh, funny that. (Not chiding you for this, except in that for someone who's been kinda going against/over AYB for a while longer than I have (owing to epic laziness on my part up to today), missing the fact that he's been against XBOX for, uh, most the damn gam, is kinda odd. But handwaving this for now, as I'm mainly just deconstructing these arguments.)

I'm going to say that the only suspects, really, are me, Bel-Air, Touhou, XBox, and AYB. I know I'm Town (which isn't helpful to anyone else, blah) so I'm looking at Bel-Air, Touhou, XBox, and AYB. Scum Bel-Air means scum Touhou. Town Touhou means Town Bel-Air. Nothing else confirms or denies anything else about them. I am... more lenient to believe TownTouhou after Demo flipped his role name, but role madness has me staying my hand from making it absolute. However, this does lead me to believe that we almost definitely have scumpairings of Bel-Air/Touhou or Box/AYB.

Mostly correct, though I disagree with the pairings section, if it weren't obvious from my latest post (I'm not convinced on AYB scum at all, while definitely convinced on Box scum)


Will get to cases when I wake up and either get here or get back, so 8-1...4? hours from now, max. Should be within the early part of that.

[Helga Pataki]

Link fouled up, but whatever, Astley's the first post of page 25, you all can click on that from here can't you? Okay, cool. Sorry 'bout that. Nighty-o.

[Alice Margatroid]

So the box's cries of "one of Touhou or AyB is definitely scum" - using his words and conclusion, not trying to partialquote anyone - are founded on his belief that Astley is likely nothing more than a mason, regardless of alignment. This is not proper scientific method. "This scenario seems unlikely to me" does not imply "this other scenario is definitely the case", and that justification makes the conclusion regarding CATS and myself feel even more like "don't look at me, look elsewhere at this!" than it did before.

The box confuses me further with his latest post, which contains continued suspicion of the girls of all people (I really cannot wrap my head around trying to paint them in a bad light after their assessment of Bel Air and his subsequent flip and it ends up just coming across as pointing fingers anywhere he can). His CATS case is amusingly reportery considering he cites CATS as doing the same a couple of times. The defeatist attitude at the end does nothing positive for him at all.

If this is all the box is going to offer, then I am set to vote for him. I will hold off in the interest of letting the girls present their remaining cases, but that's pretty much it.

I read the girls' assessment of CATS and find it somewhat similar to my own assessment of him (which can be found spread across a couple of my Day 4 posts), albeit much lengthier and much more detailed. I can't see anything in it that needs pressing commentary.

Ilka tulk tak!

Watch your language, missy. I know what that means.

[Princess Leia]

Any role-based statements are based on making reasonable assumptions; everything everyone's said is assuming that there are only two remaining scum, there are no untrackables, etc. I said right back here that the whole thing would break down if one assumed a combination scum mason/busdriver; I didn't and don't think that's a plausible possibility.
I do apologise for being so defeatist; there were external factors.

[Princess Leia]

Timing is ridiculous. You probably shouldn't believe me and certainly shouldn't cut me any slack, but I write on my way to hospital. Probably nothing serious.
On phone, haven't read anything, but just in case it's delaying the game I'll make my roleclaim: town power charger. Which is a doublevoter.

[Helga Pataki]

XBOX power claim. I'll deal with this when I hammer, as I'd actually like to be the hammer on XBOX if that's permissible as I have a few things to say in brief before the flip that I want uninterrupted by any other real commentary. A last will and testament, if you will.

Before this, and before my analysis (I have decided not to post one analysis I was doing on the side; a snapshot of the Excal picture of said aborted analysis is attached to this post) of Astley, I've a request to make of Astley and AYB: please roleclaim, at a minimum, your role names. Given as how Touhou has the jackets, my reason for this should be somewhat obvious (we know who she targeted if she ends up getting NK'd). If you can't roleclaim your role names, allude to them if you can or flat out say you can't if you can't. I realize this is pushing into "please draw a roleclaim" territory, but guess what, it's LYLO, this is effectively full roleclaim time. I can't full roleclaim myself, I've done as much as I can.

Apologies, this'll take a bit more as doing this also required an ADoggie reread, and I ended up doing something else for a while as well.

[Helga Pataki]

Correction I'm an idiot that claim cannot actually wait. XBOX, I take it this just means you can apply two votes on one person? Will your name show up twice on the list of the person voting for them?

This actually needs to be addressed, as if this claim can be safely proven I want proof of it.

[Helga Pataki]

Astley writeup! Gonna skip D1/2 up until the end, as I mostly agree (for the moment; this will get broken down when I take on his own defense) with Touhou's case on Astley, which oddly mainly only covers D1/2 matters unless I miss something. However, I feel the end D2 rant deserves mentioning due to "but it makes no sense for scum to do!"

Link is -->

red[/url]. Confirmed posted by Roll (yes, I can check this sort of thing, and unless my determinant is rickroll'd it's accurate enough).

The issue is that, on the contrary, there are logical reasons for both scum and town to do it. Scum? If you want to press a Soviet lynch (hi, who has the jackets? Granted this falls flat if XBOX isn't scum but it's something to bear in mind if we live to see tomorrow), ADoggie is effective the man to either convince or discredit, and this could easily just be a push to discredit enough that Soviet goes through over Combo. Also note fatalistic resignation (this usually never ever sits well with me, but stepping back from that from a moment), also note no mention of masonpair.

This being said, it also makes sense for town to do it -if- they're frustrated/honestly suspicious. I may have to actually relook day 2 over but I'm not sure which way I swing on it, it depends on how much of the case presented against ADoggie I can honestly buy being made at the time. Actually, should just do that now. Quoting the bulletpoints myself.

1. Dog has been giving Russia a chainsaw defense the entire damn game. Even D1, though it was less of a chainsaw defense then.
2. Dog's posts have a lot of words, but not much actual content. (Gonna point you here where it's really bad. Sure, he has that whole case on Breaker, but check out everything above that. Tell me you can't summarize that in one sentence or less)
3. Dog himself has mentioned the possibility of a town roleblocker. (And I'm gonna emphasize that with a BASTARD MODDING warning)
4. I... really don't see Russia defending itself much. Dog has been doing it instead.
5. Don't give me a damn cry of "but he's so helpful! and Townie!" We all know damn well that a good scum plays like a good town, and we ALL know it's entirely possible for someone that's 100% townie-seeming to be scum. (Hi Samurai Jack)
6. Russia has been terrible this game. Inexcusably so.
7. Dog did set himself up to lynch !cake later with subtle wording. Although now he's gone back on it and set his stance in stone by trying to condemn me.
8. Seriously, look over Dog and his interactions with Russia. Now look at his interactions with the other people who've been trains with Russia at the time, and the people who've been accusing Russia. Look it over.

1. Chainsaw defense, chainsaw defense... this is gonna take a while and I'm doing a bunch of stream of consciousness on this since I'm reading this while doing a few other analysis projects as well. First post commenting on anything in their defense is here where he says he views it as a joke vote. In Soviet Russia makes it serious. Advice Doggie yells at him. Chainsaw that's not, and he's continued to be worried by him down the page...day 1 in fact, his main issue seems to be just that Soviet Russia's tried to play up his joke vote and kinda crashed on it while O9k's looked actively scummy, so he stayed there. He doesn't defend Soviet Russia at all, his main concern is over jester than anything else but the play is hardly being defended D1. He shows a transition on Soviet during the night, then becomes wondering what the hell he'd be doing as scum doing that. Does catch one of two scummy moves (swap to Milhouse) that he does, at least. So yeah, no D1 defense at all so much as "I'd rather see O9K go".

D2... pursues !cake, whom his suspicions have switched to (outlined N1), then steps away after the claim (which leads to (7.)) and moves to CCCCC, sticking on his case from there and staying off Soviet. How's that scummy? He pushes the case he finds suspicious, and... keeps on it the rest of the day, convincing others on and off until the climactic post by you and the response by Milhouse.

2. Other than "Having to explain theorycruft sucks"? Uh, no, that's rather blatant flailing on your end - that's a good post AFAICT. I, due to being the indirect -topic-, might be colored, but the logic was and is reasonable and I'm still not sure what the issue is and where the problem with it is.
3. That's a point against Dog for mentioning it? But regardless, even if had been a town roleblocker on me it would have been irrelevant for the time- no, not because no one came out to say anything about it but because it would become more obvious as time went on what was going on/what side the blocker was on, which was his point for leaving my case alone in the first place. The people getting pissed because him treating my roleblock claim as a temp clear are the ones that honestly confused me then.
4. Nope, Russia hasn't been defending himself, you're right there. Didn't ever, really, except via cheesy anecdotes. As for Dog, see point 1.
5. Sure. Good town also plays like good town, and we ALL know that's possible, and this badly reads like what the scum version of Astley would want to do here. So, uh. Yes, we know you claim you thought he was scum. Kay. We move on, since this point really doesn't back it up at all and is honestly just fearmongering, it feels like.
6. Mmm. Yeah, can't really deny a lot of the D1-2 play for Soviet was bad, I had my issues there too! My vote didn't end up there, not sure where it would have ended up, Milhouseclaim trainwrecked stuff. Hardly arguing.
7. Uh...? Yes, he did set himself up to lynch !cake later, if we get down to endgame and we think we have all scum down and game's not over. He'd be a SK. We could kill him then. Woo.  Logic! This is what he was talking about. Not seeing the going back on it.
8. Okay, done. He's been reasonable, mostly; his main issue has been that he's stayed away from the train because people he doesn't trust (you amongst them) swapped to it. Uh. Huh, okay? Soviet wasn't acting good but others were acting worse to him; that's good play, he explained this. I'm really not sure what you want, ad I don't know why you weren't believing him other than something akin to 'too townie, leading us around by the nose'. Which makes me choke a little on my vodka.

What I notice here, however! Really, definitely, notice! You never mentioned CCCCC. Like, ever. The entirety of the comment? "that whole case on Breaker". Only on day 3 does it ever come up, and I think you got called on it there, with which you say that you didn't think he was suspicious (I think. This is out of context, I'll get you in context when I get there as I am pretty sure you were talking about this).

The reason -why- this strikes me so baldly isn't that you attacked ADoggie - okay, sure. Seeable. Nor is it your case on Soviet - he had issues! Big ones! Nor even the lack of mention on Breaker - while odd, especially while making a case on ADoggie, it's not unpardonable.

It's all three at once. You avoided bringing up CCCCC at all while -attempting to convince town that ADoggie was scum, when ADoggie's main case was a huge press on CCCCC, one of the main lynch targets of the day-. In other words, to attack ADoggie, you would have wanted to prove that his case on CCCCC was faulty - but you avoided that. Instead, you accused him of -defending- Soviet instead of -attacking- Breaker, and by doing so leading town by the nose. In doing so, I have to believe you sought to keep yourself deliberately disconnected from the case on CCCCC - why else no mention of CCCCC anywhere else in day 2 other than "that whole case on Breaker"? When -that was the other lynch train-, you have no mention of it at all in any of your day 11 posts day 11 here?

...this turned massive fast because it ended up being such a big point to reiterate. To me, this was a majorly scummy move. Final part of analysis up soon. Want the question in the post before this to be replied to by Astley and AYB both, please.

[Bill Hellsnake]

I am a Town Aligned Mad Journalist (you guys already know everything about my role, so meh) and... I can't even defend (believably) against the whole 'not mentioning Breaker' thing, because my only witness is now dead and gone. Though I did cover it in one of my points here at the top of page 25. If you look at the second last point, I cover everything you just held up against me.

Not even gonna really bother tackling anything else. I'll see if I can get Rick to come back in, since apparently I can't play worth shit.

[Helga Pataki]

One of my main things - and perhaps it's a bad habit, but it's what it is - is I very much tend to factor in retro-answers like that in far less, Roll. Not that I haven't read or considered them, but that it's a lot easier to cover ass in retrospect than it is in the heat of the moment, you know? So to weight them equally with what happened back then doesn't seem accurate to me.

Thanks for the post, waiting on AYB and XBOX. Currently hashing things through mentally, I may have to revise my analysis of AYB with one significant charge in a bit once I finish posting yours and reread through his.


...god, and we would have had a lynch to spare if Bel Air hadn't dropped. That, more than anything else, is really making me somewhat sour at this point, since that flip was not worth the lost lynch/nightphase/final day - not worth it at all. (No blame to Gate at all for this - the situation is an absolutely miserable one as a moderator to be put in, and he handled it as best he could). Still, to be in LYLO... augh. We need must make the right choice, and while... and while I am convinced that XBOX's play has been the absolute scummiest and at this point will vote him (there is -no- relevation, no determinant on any end that could change this outside of AYB suddenly spazzing out and admitting he's scum or something bizarre as hell), I really wish we had the buffer, really. To not have it, well, it makes me uncomfortable, especially since I sorta adopted the role of town...

*sigh*

I can't avoid the pun. I became town's lynchpin, didn't I.

Analysis wrapping up in a moment, I'm on Rick's AYB case.

[Bill Hellsnake]

Mm. Rick's out 'till about Monday, at the earliest.

2g1c: What can I say? I didn't feel like it was important to say "I'm not sure what I think of Breaker or Xbox." How was I to know he was scum? I mean, think about it from this angle: If Breaker had been town, then you wouldn't be holding this against me. I honestly didn't have anything new to add, and didn't feel it important to say "I have nothing to say." It would've just been noise, far as I'm concerned. You'll note I don't talk about XBox, either. I'm not gonna say it was the right thing to do (because clearly it wasn't), but it's what happened.

[VySaika]

Just to get it back on a current page, here's another

Votecount

Touhou Hijack:(0) - XBOX
XBOX:(1) - 2girls1cup, Cake
RIck & Roll: (1) - O R'LYEH!?

With 7 memes still commenting, it takes 4 votes to ban them from the internet.

And now for a word from our sponsors:



This post-mortem trolling brought to you by C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER! (Yeah, he wanted to post this himself but I told him I'd throw it in the votecount so as to avoid any confusion about whether or not it was a real votecount).

[Nathan Greaves]

Honestly I've seen no sign of Xbox having a double vote all game, so I'm inclined to think this claim is bull.

Will wait and see how he responds to this challenge, though.

[Helga Pataki]

Actually, you not commenting on XBox until rather recently was the final part I was going to note on that front - and how XBox kept commenting about you offhandedly.

And... *shrugs* We'll see where things go. I won't lie; the way things are shaping up, you're probably near the top of my suspicions for the remaining of the three scum, then AYB, then Touhou. I've had to reread Touhou about six times on my way through this thread and they haven't changed at any point through it, which kinda cements me there, though... eh. Bah. Blaaaah. BLAAAAUGH. whatever. I'm talking myself in circles due to nervous.

!cake is a ninja: Nor did Soviet, though in fairness he only had it day 1. Hm. Did he show any signs of having it day 1?

[Alice Margatroid]

I am overall neutral on the box's claim, especially since the role wasn't his to begin with, though I don't particularly think it's a lie since it's so easily provable. It seems pointless to me to lie about such a thing when he's under so much fire in LYLO, as there are a good number of better time-buying roleclaims than a publicly demonstratable power you don't have. The fact that we have yet to see an extra vote at any point this game could go either way, as I can see scum and town both wanting to hide it (maybe scum a little more but not a lot).

Box, you must understand that "I don't think a combination scum mason/busdriver is plausible" is not a good enough reason for the rest of us to believe your claim that one of myself and CATS is definitely scum. We ruled out you because of concrete testimony from the Russian, since he actually knew your role. This was grounded in facts - someone that knew the entirety of your role and has flipped town said you were not the redirector. Unless there are factual statements supported by night actions that prove Mr. Astley cannot have a redirectional role, then you cannot say that he definitely does not, which is why your pressing that point feels so much like you're trying to deflect attention away from yourself.

For the girls, the summation of my Mr. Astley case covers Days 1 and 2 because that was where the majority of my researched findings came from; I consider Day 3 to be largely irrelevant for research purposes for a bunch of people (such as Mr. Astley), and the last two days have had some lesser theories I didn't like, such as his assessment in his CATS case that the odds of a Day 2 Russia lynch were "good" (this was not corrected when I first talked about it yesterday so I am assuming it is not a misquote), but nothing as major as the shenanigans surrounding the Breaker.

[Bill Hellsnake]

Touhou, may I please ask you one quick question? Do you, or do you not believe that there are two of us behind this meme?

[Alice Margatroid]

We have mod confirmation that there are two of you, so yes, I believe it (Bastard Moddery seems silly to cite as a variable for a theory like this). If you're asking because I consistently refer to you as one entity, that is because I find it easier on myself to do so (and because "Mr. Astley" seems more Nitori-ish than the less formal "Rick" and "Roll"). I do not make much of an attempt to differentiate between which of you posted what because you have both demonstrated that you will address things relevant to what you said and defer questions about what the other said to the other.

[Helga Pataki]

Oh shut up Combo Breaker, firstly I know who you are and I will be yelling at you after the game (P4 poster? Really? That made it obvious as hell. Sorry.) and secondly wah wah wah I've been doing a shit ton of typing. One fucking mistake. Get over it and go cry into your anime collection you poser~

(oh, who am I kidding. Yeah, I'll yell at you after game, but I love ya anyway. ... Still gonna punch you.)

Final Rickroll analysis. Now that this is done, once AYB does as much of the roleclaim as he can, as I have requested (of import is the rolename) and we've got as much info from XBOX as we think we can, I'm willing to end the day.

Touhou and Astley ninja. Touhou, I have a very very very good reason why I ask XBOX about the doublevote. Please trust me on this.

D3:

Rick post: Green Confirms masonness, states two-in-one-ness, brings up Touhou as a hijacker (indulging in rolecruft. Bah) and prods Demotive for details (which is fair, considering the mess that occured here). Okay enough post, no issues here.

Rick post: Purple Main thing of interest is the third line, where Rick claims some vague info that he doesn't extrapolate on. Seems off, but okay. Unsure what info a mason pair would have that would elaborate on this, unless... well, whatevs.

Rick post: Red Asks why Touhou would track the vig/SK potentor. Reasonable question. Again, no issues aside from mainly rolecruft, but in reflection that's what D3 was, wasn't it.

Rick post: Blue Mentions he's leaning against the Hijackers and that Air seems townie due to masonchat or masonPM or whatevs. Kay.

Roll post: Yellow Clarifies the rolemess, states the D2 end explosion was due to being unentertained by the game (in part, not trying to attribute the entirety to that, but). Okay, eh. It's role clarification.

Rick post: White Calls out Touhou (semi-after the fact, but not entirely) for the rolespeculation issues.

Rick post: Neon Reiterates Bel-Air gut towniness, says no one else should probably believe him; also says Bel-Air wants to post something.

IT's day 3. Not much content. Can't blame Astley, didn't have much myself, but there's just... really not much to ride on here. Rick was the majority poster here.


D4:

Roll post: France Comments on Box avoidance of trains (good point), asks question of Demote. Decent enough post, kay kay.

Rick post: Malaysia Commentary on the leather jacket role, says he has a case on AYB in works.

Rick post: Swaziland Mostly theorycruft, rest of you've heard my belabored whining on this by now, moving on... well, the logic itself. Mmm. Feels alright, relies on simple role constructs (i.e. clearing Touhou without just cause) but otherwise whatever there it's not bad. Actually of note, neither Rick nor Roll lays vote here or by now, nor is the case presented here. This is called out. Somewhat offputting but not terribly so, if the logic jumped out first then posting that and working the case that might make sense.

Roll/Roll/Rick post set starting here, telling people to hold their horses until Rick can assemble the case... which comes in CanRICKROLLada. Okay. His breakdown, I'm gonna compare to my own: mine starts here - note that I am not comparing to how similar his is to mine, that'd be fucking stupid of me. Similar to me wouldn't be townie, surely, lord knows I've had stupid opinions in the past this game. I'm using the comparison mainly since I know I caught all the posts so it helps me make sure we're on the same page on which post is being talked about. I- oh, right, broken link. I'll presume you just took the posts in order, then...

Agreed in general on first D2 post, think you understate the good in the second one but that's no big, the third.... mmmmmm. Yeah, I can see where you come from, but as I said in my own post I personally think he did an adequate job articulating that the entire thing's just a mess he doesn't know where to go on. To be honest, trying to force someone to go somewhere with that would feel more scummy than having those feelings. Sure, he could be scummy and attempting to avoid having opinions but then there's the XBox dogged hunt.

D3... You say D3's more interesting, then give it a sentence. I am sad. And I'm looking it over and I'm not quite sure I buy it entirely being regurgitated. You're not impressive on that front either, D3: most of your new stuff is your roleclaim. The case seems kinda empty in the end; D1/first D2 sure kinda, but from there... yeah, kinda agree with AYB, this feels somewhat forced. Not sure I'd go so far as to say that you were determined to make a case on him no matter what, but... eh. Yeah, doesn't read too well, but it's not totally bad either.

Rick post: Brazil Undoes more rolecruft on Touhou/Demotive. kay

Rick post: Japan Using my trusty ///.

Commentary on Bel-Air and his absence. Again. Mmm. /// Breakdown of where they see people, yamma yamma okay cool sorry I wanna skip to the AYB ninja commentary. /// Nope, the links don't lead to the right posts. Only the pages. Also... hold on a sec, confused, want to check something in my own notes...

As for your day 3 stuff, a decent amount of it was cribbed from Shiki.  Which is my main concern.  Another telling part was where you asked for info that had already been given.

Former I can see, kinda. Latter, please source? Here's his D3 post link: here. I... uh, don't see any questions marks there except for one, which... if that sentence reads as a question to you, I raise an eyebrow; that's clearly a -rhetorical- question. Where's the question? Elaborate, please. This can wait for Rick, I guess, which means it can wait for tomorrow if we live for it, but this does not raise my confidence for the Astleys at all.

/// Finally, an attack on the O9K... no, the O9K vote made sense, I thought. At least, I followed the logic when I read AYB's post on it, both then and now. Don't quite know where you're going at, there, but accusing him of making sense only on the surface... noooo. That's not quite the case there. Wish you would back this up, as it stands there's not much here to push against and as such I'm left shaking my head at you rather vaguely. Note that he defends this in his own post pretty well, I think, looking it over, although he seems to kinda get flustered about your terminology.

Roll post: Texas /// are your friend!

0 /// Mmmhmm. /// More rolecruft. /// Yeah, that's about the one thing to say against AYB in the exchange, but it reads a lot like ADoggie, honestly - focused on the target (CCCCC/XBox) and not voting therefore on the secondary (Russia/Astley). /// Three more paragraphs of (seminecessary) rolecrufting. Blah. /// Prodding at Shiki who was flailing badly at Touhou. Yeah, really, had Shiki kept playing normally it'd have been nice, but the sudden swap to "o hi metalogic" twigged everyone off. Wowzers.

Roll post: Mongolia Series of posts testing Shiki's role. 'kay. Nothing really to say here, she wasn't lying, lynched anyway because she was acting scummy, no fault there. Kay.


Overall? Kinda feels... vacuous. The cases are a lot of warmer air outside of the one on ADoggie which I don't feel was a good case. Yeah, this feels like the final scum, honestly; thinking it's XBOX/Astley, far far far far faaaaaaaaaaaaaar more confident on XBOX however, Astley not so much. My analysis are done, I think I'm not going to do one on Touhou out of sheer exhaustion, honestly; that and after reading her posts over and over it'd be a lot of "Okay!" stuff. Sorry, but I'm not the one that would need to analyze them, I think like them too much possibly based on that. !cake might be a better person to do it but eh.

Once AYB does as much of the roleclaim as he can, as I have requested (of import is the rolename) and we've got as much info from XBOX as we think we can, I'm willing to end the day.

Touhou and Astley ninja. Touhou, I have a very very very good reason why I ask XBOX about the doublevote. Please trust me on this. This is on top and bottom so I can be sure people read it.

[Alice Margatroid]

Aha, I believe I see why you want this. Yeah, okay, I'd like to hear from the box again too.

I'll admit I'm not entirely sure you're going to hear what you want to hear due to various environmental circumstances, but I could be wrong.

[Helga Pataki]

I think I can say this: Despite my own adherence to the contrary, if XBox can prove his role, I think he might be clear.

This... isn't something I ever thought I'd say, to be honest! But there you go. Which would make things a decent bit simpler on my end... but I'll wait for XBOX's willingness to offer this before going any further.