Author Topic: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)  (Read 133568 times)

Ranmilia

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #450 on: September 27, 2014, 10:55:15 PM »
Yeah, it's a draft format (a very fun one, read more) and the link is compiled statistics from several drafts.  Certainly not meant to be taken as a real best of all time list.  Just an interesting data point in how formats can drastically change card values.  Painter's Servant and Hexmage are high picks there because there are only so many realistic instant win combos, and people want to lay claim to them early.  Hexmage also pulls triple duty as a good cheap beater and "destroy target planeswalker," in addition to freeing Marit Lage from the Dark Depths.  Stoneforge Mystic goes high mainly because it's the best card in the draft format to signal that one intends to actually draft white (Enlightened Tutor goes even higher, but that belongs in a heavy artifact deck rather than a real white deck).

metroid composite

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SnowFire

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #452 on: November 11, 2014, 12:45:46 AM »
Quote
The SNES game Super Metroid had various ways you could bypass the normal sequence of the game, and get items out of order. These seemed like they weren't intentional, and players felt quite clever for finding them. So.....Nintendo collects some feedback about Metroid, and finds that players like to find tricks to beat Metroid games out-of-sequence. And then they make Metroid Zero Mission where the developers deliberately placed some hidden tunnels to skip areas, and I believe they even had some kind of "you've found a hidden bypass tunnel" notification. Players hated this; the sense of discovery was gone. The sense of "I outsmarted the developer" was gone.

I think it was Metroid Fusion that did this, and yes, it was really lame.  (This may be influenced by my general feeling that Metroid Fusion's script was written by a marmot.)  I don't think it even really *got* you anything, just was a weird skip to prove you could skip there...  Metroid Fusion is crazy on rails in general, even when it has no right to be; it manages to make BREAKING THE WALLS and going to a sector you're not supposed to something done because you're told to.

Anyway, that all said, I kinda disagree with the point in general.  Not knowing counters to units is a huge part of the learning curve.  It took a decent while for me to learn why my Stalkers were getting crushed by Marauders, or why my Marauders were crushed by Marines, or why my Marines were crushed by Sentries.  It's not exactly obvious why, you just have to learn the damage boosts, and I can attest to more casual SC2 fans who I whipped into playing who needed to be reminded each time.  If the counter to the Colossus was really obvious, well, that's okay.  (Colossi still have issues of course - for old WoL balance, I know Laggy/Rat had a good idea to nerf Extended Thermal Lance - maybe only range 7 or 8 - and include a researchable upgrade to Immortals to make 'em range 8 or 9, so Immortals are the siege unit, Colossi are the area cleanup crew.  Would make lategame classic PvP less about piles of Colossi fighting it out, too.)

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #453 on: November 11, 2014, 01:22:39 AM »
I think to make sequence-breaking appealing you need to make it difficult but possible. Most of Super Metroid's came out of either difficult shinespark tricks or walljumping, which was overly difficult for what it was but did work out pretty well for this. (Super Metroid's bad sequence-breaks come from exploiting glitches.) It's not so much sequence-breaking which is fun in its own right, it's the feeling of the player "beating" the system by doing something difficult and technical. For some reason, although the later games use shinespark tricks for secrets, they don't use them for sequence-breaking. Which I'm somewhat more okay with in Fusion since it's telling a story and I'm not sure how many great opportunities there would be for such things, it does feel like a missed opportunity for Zero Mission whose plot-light style would have lent itself to that more. That said I don't personally care about sequence-breaking that much; the main reason I like Super Metroid's main one is it lets you skip Crocomire, which is my least favourite boss in the game. <.<

Quote
(This may be influenced by my general feeling that Metroid Fusion's script was written by a marmot.)

Guess this means marmots write better than whoever wrote Trails in the Sky.

(I may be a bit sick of you repeatedly slagging that game's plot with little provocation and even less justification.)

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SnowFire

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #454 on: November 11, 2014, 02:26:34 AM »
Um...  wat.

A) I was merely agreeing with a point metroid composite brought up herself, and adding a slight correction as to which game in.  I think I may have mentioned this in chat ~3 months ago, and at the time I finished Fusion on WGAYP?  This isn't Nama & the FF6 WoR....  I think...  have I been endlessly ragging on Fusion?  I don't remember so, at least!
B) The ragging on Fusion's scriptwriter was a disclaimer, aka "warning: biased opinion", that my endorsing that the "Fusion easter egg was lame" meme was *suspect*, so it's possible others have different opinions (although I suspect metroid is right that it wasn't amazingly well-received).  And hey, I saw Ciato's (and to a lesser extent yours) complaints about Trails in WGAYP, which is fine.  She didn't like it, that's cool, I'm not offended or sick of it or anything, although I'll disagree.
C) Okay, ragging on the wall breaking was off-topic, fine, you got me there.  (But if not clear, it's because I thought that was one of the best parts of Metroid Fusion, and wanted it to be *even better*.  This is where I mention again that I did in fact like Metroid Fusion, and if I was the type who enjoyed doing things like the 1% challenge you did, it'd be even better!)
D) But okay, sure, if you bring it up, let's talk about it and the justification.  Here's the script:
http://metroid.wikia.com/wiki/Sector_4_conversation
...I'm sorry, this is lame-o.  For some reason going to a navigational computer you aren't supposed to access means you can be told MWAHAHA THERE IS A NEBULOUS EVIL PLAN OH WAIT NEVER MIND.  And then you are told "Samus, return to the correct route immediately."  That...  that is not much of a reward, and is just kind of nonsensical.  (The fact that the actual plan is...  not much...  doesn't help matters here either, but even if it *was* a great plan referenced, this scene would still be lame.)  It isn't really a sequence break, either.  Maybe it'd be too much coding, but if they want to directly support a sequence break, support a sequence break and actually let the player skip some section, or get a cool new weapon they shouldn't have yet.  If they wanted to just have a fun easter egg with some plot overtones, don't be a useless tease; have some genuine hidden bit of plot to discover.  Alternatively, just have a humorous, out-of-character conversation.  I guess that's what they did go for, but the humor was a miss for me at least.
E) You didn't take into account the potential return of a year of Brood Lord / Infestor in your post at all, which could be avoided with MC's suggestion of keeping the flavorful neural parasite while canning Fungal Growth.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 02:28:33 AM by SnowFire »

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #455 on: November 11, 2014, 03:19:40 AM »
A) I'm pretty sure MC knew which game she was referencing, she's a bigger Metroid fan than either of us (uh, obviously). It was about Zero Mission. You wanted to make it about Fusion, which well, cool, okay, still relevant since it's a different Super Metroid sequel and all. The random shot at the game's plot/script again was needless, since we weren't even talking about Fusion, let alone its writing. And yeah, you've done that at least twice in chat, and both times I called you about it you vanished without explaining anything. I figured I'd say something where I knew you'd have to respond. (Sorry mc.)

B-D) I wasn't even aware of this particular scene, actually. If you don't like it, that's fine. I have no real opinion. The scene reads as a joke to me; you weren't supposed to get there, so the characters say things which are pretty much non-canon ("Let's fill her in on our plan!" from the secretive Federation official who it is already established does not want Samus to know their plan, followed by "No more joking"... if you're taking this seriously, I suspect you're the only one). Anyway you already know the Federation has an "evil plan" at this point, so the scene isn't actually shedding light on anything new, so yeah, pure joke. It's fine to find this joke not very funny, although weird to be so critical of it anyway.

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SnowFire

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #456 on: November 11, 2014, 03:53:36 AM »
Well, if it was in fact in Zero Mission, then silly me.  I know there are secret passages in Zero Mission, but I don't recall getting notifications, so I presumed that notification = the weird "Samus you used the Shrinespark" thing.  (But...  it has been 10+ years since I played Zero Mission?  So.)  Getting back to the original point, I think I'd agree with MC that it sounds lame if the notifications were in Zero Mission too?  And yes, I am most familiar with Fusion's Easter Egg, which lodged in the same place of my head as "Zodiac Spear in FF12" and "Radiant Dawn endings that require NG+ and specific Path of Radiance data import" as far as obscura memorable for questionable design, hence thinking about that.  A person (may) have come to the wrong conclusion due to knowing just enough Metroid obscura to jump to the wrong conclusion.  Oh well.

For the Fusion thing, for whatever relevance it has, I'm critical of the joke not being funny for the same reason that MC brought up (hence why I thought it was relevant): that it doesn't really fit the "I am breaking the game" feel it should have.

As for chat, I think your memory of slights upon Fusion there is better than mine!  Twice since...  2012 I think?  Anyway, it's been too long so I have no idea how much "provocation" there was, but I apparently thought it was relevant at the time, and I don't remember why/if I either missed or let drop any comments from you.  As for no justification, well, I can obviously ramble about the script again if you *want* to chat about it, and I can shut up if you don't.  Up to you!  (I don't claim any kind of objective truth, but I'd argue I know my own thoughts pretty darn well, so I can say with a high degree of justification that Fusion's script was a letdown for me at least.)
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 03:56:48 AM by SnowFire »

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #457 on: November 11, 2014, 09:09:10 AM »
I was talking about Zero Mission, yes.

What Fusion did was quite a bit different: Fusion stamped out all sequence breaking and enforced linear gameplay.  Not the first game to do this (Fusion reminded me a lot of Metroid II).  And there's nothing necessarily wrong with a linear game, although clearly it didn't scratch that itch at all for players who wanted it, whereas MZM does scratch that itch.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 09:10:42 AM by metroid composite »

SnowFire

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #458 on: November 12, 2014, 02:14:28 AM »
Going back to the SC2 changes...  not sure if unkillable Nydus Worms are a great idea.  In terms of drama / gameplay, hearing the screech and having to quickly search the minimap to see if you can find and kill the Nydus Worm in time is very exciting.  If your scratch base defense force can't stop them, then that moment of tension is lost, you just have to do a boring evacuation + send reinforcements back.  Seems very powerful, especially if you can spawn multiple worms at once in different places...  or even just Worm a lurker in with the lings for extra trolling when the force comes to deal with the attack.

Anyway, I'm cautiously optimistic but slightly worried.  "Click the buttons fast you have no reason not to push" for things like Immortals seems just not fun at a casual level for "opportunities for micro", that was a problem with old Corrupters as well.  And, while deathball is potentially boring & lame, having all Workers constantly dead isn't great either, hence the nerfs to Blue Flame Hellions in WoL, and then to Hellbats in HotS.  Ideally you want "my army needs to be spread out, but a moment of inattention means I am forced back from a crucial position, not all my workers are instantly dead."  Maybe just give LotV workers more HP?!

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #459 on: January 19, 2015, 09:30:42 PM »
Magic the gathering:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/banned-and-restricted-announcement-2015-01-19

Treasure Cruise banned in Modern and Legacy and restricted in Vintage.

Let's be clear here, if you got enough cards in your graveyard, Treasure Cruise was Ancestral Recall.  Just, you know, you'd better not be planning on using your graveyard for anything else.  And you'd better hope they don't have a Leyline of the Void.

Still though, an ancestral recall with the caveat that you do need to dedicate yourself to it is...apparently still that goddamn good.  (Except in Standard where there aren't as many tools to fill up your graveyard).

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #460 on: February 10, 2015, 10:09:42 AM »
So let's talk about the big O notation of BogBogSort:

http://www.dangermouse.net/esoteric/bogobogosort.html

Actually, let's build up to this first.

O() notation is basically a way to say that one function looks like another function as x gets large.  This is determined in the form of...

if

f(x) = O(g(x))

That means there exists a constant C such that

f(x) <= C*g(x)

So for instance, all quadratic equations are O(x^2).  Doesn't matter what any of the constants are.  And in general O() notation works great for figuring out that polynomials grow at a similar rate.  It works poorly for faster growing functions, though.

Consider these two functions:

f(x) = 2^x

g(x) = 4^x

Obviously they're more or less the same function, or at least you can rephrase problems to look like the other one.  Like...let's say instead of x representing individual people, it represents married couples--bam, just switched the algorithm from 2^x to 4^x, even though we're still talking about the same code solving the same problem.  Despite that, they are not O equivalent

4^x != O(2^x)

This is kind-of a failing of the O system, and one that honestly wouldn't be too hard to solve.  (Instead of using one constant in the definition, you'd use two, ex:

f(x) <= C*g(D*x)

But it doesn't.  And this is where it stops being a useful tool.  BUT we're still going to do calculations about it because math is fun.

It gets even worse where we're going.

(n+1)! != O(n!)

Yep, literally the same function shifted over by 1, is not even recognized as being in a similar category of functions by the function categorization tool O(f).  But like I said, we're going to use it anyway.  I'm just pointing out the n+1 stuff, because it's annoying and it's gonna come up.

So...let's start with a practice case.  O(n!) is kinda similar to n^n (in that it's somewhere between n^(n/2) and (n/2)^n).  Of course, they're not O() equivalent, because of all that stuff I just mentioned above.  So...what IS O() equivalent?

Well...I don't really have particularly good tools at my disposal to handle products, but I do have good tools at my disposal to handle sums, so let's just take the log of everything.

ln(n!) = ln(1) + ln(2) + ln(3) + ... + ln(n)

Alright...well...I don't really have a great way to sum all that stuff, but I can integrate it.

integral( ln(x) ) = x ln(x) - x

Alright, so what is the evaluation range of this integral?  Well it's from 1, to n+1 instead of 0 to n.  (Really, you don't want to integrate the area between 0 and 1).  So let's plug that in.

(n+1)ln(n+1) - (n+1) - (0 - 1)

= (n+1)(ln(n+1)-1) + 1

And then raising e to the power of all of this...

((n+1)/e)^(n+1) * e

Alright cool, glad that worked out.  Only one problem--this still isn't O() equivalent to n!.  You see...when we approximated sum( ln(x) ) as integral( ln(x) ), that's not accurate.  We're adding too much.  So...as a second order approximation, for each tile we want to subtract like...a triangle.

So...equation for a triangle area here would be

1/2 * (ln(n+1) - ln(n))

And I could approximate this with the derivative of ln(x), and then integrate it, but this is one case where summing over n is quite easy, because this happens:

(ln(n+1) - ln(n)) + (ln(n) + ln(n-1)) + .....

= ln(n+1) - ln(1) = ln(n+1)

Bam, and now we can plug that into the previous equation

(n+1)(ln(n+1)-1) + 1 - 1/2 ln(n+1)

= n ln(n+1) + ln(n+1) - n - 1 + 1 - 1/2 ln(n+1)

= n ln(n+1) + 1/2 ln(n+1) - n

= n ( ln(n+1) - 1) + 1/2 ln(n+1)

So...translating this back to the real world, we have...

((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1)


Alright, this is more accurate...but is it accurate enough for big O notation?  I mean, we just approximated the curve with diagonal slope lines, but of course it's curves.  What if we account for this with second order newtonian approximations?

Well...the integral of an upside down parabola from -1/2 to +1/2 is...the integral of (1/4 - x^2).  This is 1/4x - 1/3 x^3.

= 1/4 - (1/3 * 1/8 - 1/3 * (-1/8) ) = 1/4 - 1/12 = 1/6

Alright, so all we need is the second derrivative of the function and then we can sum over that.  What is the second derivative of ln(x)?  -1/x^2.

Sweet, let's integrate that.  And we get....

1/6 * 1/x

And when we change that into exponent form we get...

e^(1/6*1/x)

Alright...so what does O() think of this value?  For once, O() does its god damned job and weeds something out.  e^(1/x) trends towards a constant value, and constant multiplied values are weeded out by O().

So...we can say conclusively...

((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1) = O(n!)

AND

n! = O(((n+1)/e)^n * sqrt(n+1))

And...actually the two functions are very close to each other.  Like...

1.04  vs  1
2.11 vs 2
6.37 vs 6
25.6 vs 24
128 vs 120
771 vs 720

It drifts a little bit off-course because I haven't accounted for any constants (empirical testing suggests multiply by 0.92 makes it very accurate for high values of x).


Anyway, so we're about ready to tackle bogobogosort.  It's 1am and I'm probably not going to finish writing this tonight.  However let's get started.

http://www.dangermouse.net/esoteric/bogobogosort.html

So there's two functions here, the sort n S(n) and the check n is sorted C(n)

S(n) = n! * C(n)

C(n) = n * S(n-1)

S(n) = n * n! * S(n-1)

(with some smaller terms that O() will actually smash for us.  O() is good at handling two functions being added together).

S(n) = n! * product(x!)

S(n) = n! * (1^(n) * 2^(n-1) * 3^(n-2) * ... * n^(1))

so taking the log of what we plan to sum, it looks something like

log(x) + (M-x)*ln(x)

We've already handled integrating ln(x), just to the right hand part.

(M-x)*ln(x)

M ln x - x ln x

M ( x ln x - x  ) - ( 1/2 x^2 ln x - 1/4 x^2 )

M^2 ln M - M^2 - 1/2 M^2 ln M + 1/4 M^2 - ( - M + 1/4 )

1/2 M^2 ln M - 3/4 M^2 + M - 1/4

In these equations M is the peak of the integral (1+n).  Let's add the preliminary version of n!, since we're integrating over x.

So translating this to actually multiplicative stuff...

n! * (sqrt(n+1))^((n+1)^2) / e^(3/4*M^2) * e^M * e^1/4

Obviously this is just zeroth' orcer,approximation, and we'll probably need two derivatives.  Still, though...

(And that's where I'll stop for tonight).

SnowFire

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #461 on: February 12, 2015, 05:44:29 PM »
Neat stuff!

Obligatory nitpick: The runtime of bogosort is undefined, because it isn't guaranteed to terminate, and Big O by default refers to the worst case.  (Assuming perfectly random permutation generation, whatever that means, at least.)  Same is true of bogobogosort.  Of course, that just means we're looking for the *average* runtime, which is also fine (and what the linked webpage was using).

Also, bogobogosort always seemed like cheating to me.  Bogosort is a real-if-ludicrous way to sort a list; intentionally screwing up the way to *check* the list with messing with copies seemed a tad random.  It's better than "bubble sort, but every time you swap numbers calculate the next Mersenne prime" at least, since you get the self-referencing C(n) = n * S(n-1) at least.  Fun analysis regardless.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #462 on: February 15, 2015, 07:50:09 AM »
I decided the n! stuff was cool enough to make pretty, so I put it in a Tumblr blog.

May or may not bother with finishing bogobogosort stuff.


metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #463 on: February 16, 2015, 04:39:31 AM »
For some random hearthstone stuff...here's Amaz on Priest with legendaries losing at rank 25 to a basic mage deck:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kvn_30dtzWs&feature=youtu.be

(The player was good, let's be clear; probably someone competent who was playing on Asia because NA was down.  Still hilarious).



In other Hearthstone stuff...this is more of a game design thing, but Clockwork Gnome is a really well-designed card.  Like...it's higher power than Leper Gnome in most decks as it provides more board control, but it's also less frustrating to play against.  It manages to be a high power card with a lot of variety without being a frustrating card you shake your fist at.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #464 on: March 18, 2015, 08:34:35 AM »
http://www.reddit.com/r/MTGLegacy/comments/2z6v9y/4_ugins_mud_decklist_from_south_florida_magic/

So...I have an urge to buy the cards and put this deck together.  It would cost me about $1000, but it seems really fun.

Modifications:

Haven of the Spirit Dragon is coming out, and it's quite good because it can recur Ugin (and also because at some point you have a good number of Cloudposts and no longer need other sources of mana, so might as well recycle lands).

The question is what to cut for it.  12 post seems like a lock.  8 sol lands seem pretty important to get fast disruption going.  So like...maybe Cavern of Souls, but those are important too.  Thinking maybe go down to 3 cavern of souls, 1 Haven.  You want Cavern early, you want Haven eventually once there's an Ugin in the graveyard and you can spare the mana.  Alternatively, I do have some temptation to cut one City of Traitors, not because it would make the deck better, but just because it is the most expensive card in the deck (sitting at $60 per card or so).  Or a third option would be to run 25 land.  The question then would be what spell to cut.

Some stuff that's not getting cut:

4 metalworker
4 Grim Monolith

1 Trading Post (since everything is an artifact creature you basically trade anything in play for anything in your graveyard)
1 Platinum Emperion (just shuts down some decks)
1 Lightning Greaves (there for enabling combos)
1 Blightsteel Colossus (wins games sometimes, ways to cheat it in)
1 Staff of Domination (wins games sometimes)
1 Staff of Nin (the constant card draw is really nice, and there's lots of 1 health things I hate in legacy, like Young Pyromancer, Dark Confidant, Delver of Secrets (pre-flip))

The disruption package seems really important too
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Trinisphere
4 Lodestone Golem

(In fact I'm a little surprised he only has 3 Trinispheres; there's a fourth in the sideboard, though).

And then there's the threat package

4 Wurmcoil Engine
3 Kudoltha Forgemaster
4 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Running 4 Ugin is something I want to do, and one of the draws of the deck (and the deck creator said he'd run more than 4 if he could).  Wurmcoil is something you want to see early against aggro/burn.  Forgemaster...is a tutor.  It's not something that's necessary on turn 2, but you do eventually want one.  Running 3 is already a bit lower than normal.  Wurmcoil...you don't strictly need 4.  When there's a lot of fast/aggressive decks, 6 lifegain is nice, though.  Probably not something to cut for a slow card, as this can drop (uncounterable) on turn 2, and really jam up some decks.

Hmm...for comparison purposes, let's look at an older variant:

http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?23388-Deck-MUD-(Metalworker)

Search 12 post MUD

Differences in the maindeck:

+4 Ugin
-1 Spine of Ish sah
-1 Lightning Greaves (still run one in the deck)
-1 Trinisphere
-1 Sundering Titan
-2 Spellskite
+1 Wurmcoil Engine
-1 Kudoltha Forgemaster
+1 Trading Post
+1 Platinum Emperion

Other cards I've seen show up include

Myr Battlesphere
Steel Hellkite

Spine of Ish Shah isn't so important.  It's kind of weak on its own, and mostly a tutor target as removal, but 4x Ugin does a lot of removal.

Sundering Titan was removed along with the Wastelands with good reason--the idea is if you get to play your cards, they will be better than your opponent's cards usually, so using wastelands, spending a tutor pulling out a Sundering Titan, just isn't necessary.  This was the innovation that the new deck did, was to replace wastelands with Cavern of Souls.

Spellkite...is good, but not flashy.

Myr Battlesphere is a card I tend to fangirl over.  Could probably swap one of these in for a Wurmcoil Engine, but they serve similar roles.  Like...making multiple saccable objects for Trading post and Kudoltha Forgemaster.

Steel Hellkite is tempting if I'm putting in Dragon Haven, But really it seems like it fills a similar niche to Ugin (sweeps stuff of a certain converted mana cost).  Except it also depends on summoning sickness, and not hitting flying blockers, and Ugin does not, so basically every time I will want Ugin.

All in all, I am tempted to go -1 Wurmcoil, +1 Myr Battlesphere, just because I like the card.  But I'll admit there wouldn't be too much value to this.  It's not really a tutor target.  And turn 2 wurmcoil engines (even uncounterable ones) are a thing, but that's a lot harder to do with battlesphere.

Anyway, no idea if I will buy it (I've historically shied away from spending more than about $50 on a magic deck) but I am weirdly tempted this time.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #465 on: March 19, 2015, 07:10:25 AM »
Another variant:

Quote
im at work but i think its like this:

4 Metalworker
4 Kuldotha Forgemaster
1 Steel Hellkite
4 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Blightsteel Colossus
1 Platinum Emperion
4 Lodestone Golem

3 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

3 grim monolith
4 Trinisphere
3 Lightning Greaves
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Staff of Domination

3 Mishra's Factory
4 Cloudpost
4 Glimmerpost
3 Vesuva
4 Ancient Tomb
3 City of Traitors
3 Darksteel Citadel

SB:

3 Ratchet Bomb
2 tsabos web
2 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Duplicant
4 faerie macabre
3 tormods crypt

Note: it's a 61 card deck, so he's not reporting it properly, but it's pretty similar.

Interesting notes:

3 Vesuva.  I'm seeing quite a few decks go down on Vesuva's if they go lower on anything. I think that's probably the land to cut for Dragon Haven.

Darksteel Citadel and Mishra's Factory.  Artifact lands.  All the artifact synergies.

3 City of Traitors; haven't seen this before, it's interesting.


He describes in another post comparing his decklist to the one that inspired me that he is shocked about the only 3 trinispheres, because trinispheres stop spells like Force of Will.  Here's my thoughts: the 4 Cavern of Souls makes this not as necessary.

Other differences:

+1 Kudoltha Forgemaster
+1 Steel Hellkite
-1 Grim Monolith
-1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
+2 Lightning Greaves
+1 Trinisphere
-1 Staff of Nin
-1 Trading Post

Not sure how much I like any of these changes.  Give me all the Ugins.  I can see the argument for Lighting Greaves being good and wanting lots of them.  Not sure how much they excite me though.  Steel Hellkite never really got me all that excited, and serves a similar purpose to Ugin.  Staff of Nin does excite me for whatever reason.  It's a ton of value, stands well on its own, but doesn't just instantly shut someone out of the game.  Trading Post makes goats and is therefore awesome.  4 Forgemasters...I mean, Forgemaster does have to live to tap (which he enables with extra lightning greaves) and needs stuff to sac (which he has more of).

So that leaves the 3 Grim Monoliths as the really interesting change that I could get behind.  3 Grim Monolith 4 Trinisphere instead of 4 Grim Monolith 3 Trinisphere?  Interesting!  I will note that Grim Monolith, after its spent, is sac bait for Forgemaster, and his deck has a lot more sac bait (extra lightning greaves, artifact lands).

Eh, the difference between Monolith and Trinisphere is "I do fun things" vs "you can't do fun things".  Think I'll stick closer to "I do fun things" and run 4 monolith, 3 trinisphere, especially as I plan to go the Cavern of Souls route, so Trinisphere isn't as vital.

So overall, not changing much from the original deck I linked in the non-land area.  Trying to decide on Dragon Havens--thinking one or two, in replacement for Vesuva, and...possibly a second one replacing City of Traitors just because it's the most expensive card in the deck.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #466 on: March 19, 2015, 07:38:42 AM »
That Ugin deck is cool, but I definitely can't see assembling real life Legacy decks unless you plan on playing in tournaments.  Just way too expensive, and probably "too good" for casual play anyway.  I guess there's always proxies?

Quote
Myr Battlesphere is a card I tend to fangirl over.

Random story from tonight: I made a Reanimator deck in Cube, but had comparatively weak reanimation targets.  I included Battlesphere anyway as it's FUNNY at least and...  it actually paid off several times, most notably in a giant slugfest where I won about 2 cards before being decked via Battlesphere beatdown.  (If my opponent killed it, I could just resurrect it for MORE Myr, and chump blocking couldn't stop the 4 damage a turn...  nice incentive structure.)

Progenitor Mimic also ended up in the funny reanimator targets pile (although in this case I just hardcast it with the help of Lotus) when my opponent got out a fast Hornet Queen.  And then I tutored up Phyrexian Metamorph using Garruk the Veil Cursed for 8 flying insects & 2 new Hornet Queens every turn.  Good times.  'twas a funny deck.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #467 on: March 20, 2015, 08:16:23 AM »
That Ugin deck is cool, but I definitely can't see assembling real life Legacy decks unless you plan on playing in tournaments.  Just way too expensive, and probably "too good" for casual play anyway.  I guess there's always proxies?

Well...I have coworkers who play Legacy sometimes at lunch.  Like...not super optimized lists, which means they don't have 4x Revised Duals and only maxed out their ravnica duals.  but still lists.  I also have friends in LA who are hardcore into Legacy.

And like...$1000, which is about what this list costs?  That's like...one vacation once flight and hotel are accounted for.  And I expect the deck to remain reasonably relevant in Legacy with small modifications basically forever.  And like...I dunno, I like...never spend all this money I make, so finding that I really impulsively wanted something and it's within my budget?  Seems reasonable to buy.  And hypothetically I can sell it for...probably similar amounts of money later on.  Still a more sensible use of money than a sports car, I feel, and plenty of people impulse buy those.

By comparison, last time I saw a magic deck that genuinely appealed to me, it was a standard deck that was rotating out in 3 months, and which...let's see, if I built it now years after most of the cards rotated out it would be...$300.  (And this was a monocolour deck).

---

(I did buy the deck, incidentally.  Or the mainboard, anyway.  The sideboard is maybe half stuff from his sideboard, and half "fuck it, Myr Battlesphere in my sideboard!")

Also, the sideboard has some stuff I wanted to experiment with, like a few people have been hyping up Coercive Portal over Staff of Nin so I ordered one of those.  Frankly, portal in the abstract is pretty busted compared to classical cards for a 1v1 setting.  If you choose Homage, that always wins ties, which makes it like...Jayemdae Tome where the cost to draw is 0 instead of 4.


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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #469 on: March 25, 2015, 12:21:22 AM »
I am generally pretty happy with that rule, that is honestly how I expected Commander to work from the outset and was puzzled by it.  Why should Commanders have weakness to Blue and White?

Like you clearly outlined, the meta will shift around it and there is always options in Magic.  I really like the way that the answers to Commanders is now the same as other problems fairly equally instead of bouncing/shuffle into deck being an uber kill (and promoting tutoring or card draw, so Blue Uber Alles even more the case, black loves it too or hey Green even has Tutor for Legendary, I know I used it).

So what I am saying, buff red plz.  Make a Bowser card, make it MT and give him the skill.
NO MORE POKEMON - Meeplelard.
The king perfect of the DL is and always will be Excal. - Superaielman
Don't worry, just jam it in anyway. - SirAlex
Gravellers are like, G-Unit - Trancey.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #470 on: March 25, 2015, 02:51:20 PM »
So what I am saying, buff red plz.  Make a Bowser card, make it MT and give him the skill.

Didn't they already do that?

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #471 on: March 25, 2015, 07:47:15 PM »
No one is complaining that Red is too strong, so not enough yet.
NO MORE POKEMON - Meeplelard.
The king perfect of the DL is and always will be Excal. - Superaielman
Don't worry, just jam it in anyway. - SirAlex
Gravellers are like, G-Unit - Trancey.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #472 on: March 26, 2015, 04:50:13 PM »
Mmmm...people do complain about puphoros decks, actually.  And several other problem decks are at least partially red (Prossh, Maelstrom wanderer).

Also Balefire Dragon can go fuck itself.  Shuts out so many fun decks.  Pretty multitarget, kinda Bowserish.

And there's Insurrection, which generally wins the game whenever I've seen it cast.  Also multitarget.  Bowserish in that kidnapping people is kind-of his thing.  Although I guess he tends to kidnap one person, not all the people, so that's more like Mass Mutiny, which is also good.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #473 on: March 27, 2015, 05:04:38 PM »
So....three card blind is pretty cool.  This one was run with all the Vintage legal cards:

https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/30eluz/three_card_blind_round_1_results/

Basically MtG but you only have three cards that start in your hand, and you don't lose the game when you draw cards.  (You still draw cards though).

So...first turn win decks exist, such as...

Laboratory Maniac, Black Lotus, Gitaxian Probe.  Probe is important, because of the fact that it's a spell so you can let it be countered by Chancellor of the Annex

Obviously the third card is a bit of a flex slot.  It doesn't need to be Gitaxian Probe; I've also seen Mental Misstep (athough that does get shut out by Chancellor).  What nobody seemed to run in their third slot of that deck was Chancellor, which is interesting because that would stop the opponent from using Force of Will.

In general, force of will decks beat this though.

Force of Will, Misthollow Griffin, Saprazzan Cove

(And there's variants on this that run a 1/1, and just exile the other card with no plans of bringing it back.  Usually  Dryad Arbor as the 1/1, with Slippery Boggle as the exile, but the Misthollow Griffin is generally considered the best Force of Will decks.

There's also burn decks that can just kill the laboratory maniac:

Chancellor of the Annex, Chancellor of the Forge, Pyrokinesis.

Of course, both of these have problems against

True Name Nemesis, black lotus, Strip Mine

The burn plan is bad because it can't target TNN, and the force of will plan gets its land blown up, so...ends in a draw (but most force of will strategies just die to Strip Mine since a land is usually their win con).  Speaking of strip mine builds

Chancellor of the Annex, Fountain of Cho, strip mine

Uses the ever-popular Chancellor of the Annex, and just...hardcasts it.


Waaay out on the fringe and not as playable, there's also some pure land strategies to play around force of will (which obviously die to Strip Mine) like...

Dark Depths, Thespian's Stage, City of Traitors

As well on the fringe there are some Emrakul decks, casting with either Black Lotus Channel, or Black Lotus Show and Tell.  These are funny, because if you do get rid of Emrakul somehow, like say Innocent Blood, then Emrakul shuffles all the cards back into your library and you get to go again.

Some people are also running Karakas, sometimes with Leyline of Singularity, which lets them bounce any creature.

Fun stuff.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #474 on: March 28, 2015, 08:20:25 AM »
Hopped in for round 2 of this.  The one card banned for round 2 was Chancellor of the Anex.

My deck was Chancellor of the Forge, Pyrokinesis, Strip Mine

My reasoning being I wanted to beat Laboratory Maniac decks, which I reasoned I could do with Pyrokinesis, which I can cast at instant speed before my first turn.  And I wanted to beat the obvious way to kill LabMan decks, which is Force of Will.  (For whatever reason, every Force deck I saw used a land that can't do anything the turn you play it as its win condition--either Dryad Arbor, or a storage land).  I also realized later that I'm not foolproof against Lab Maniac decks.  If they used Gitaxian Probe (a sorcery) like they did last round, then yeah, I could burn them out--but if they use instant speed draw like Street Wraith then I'm screwed; I can't kill the LabMan or they'll respond by drawing a card and winning the game.  And all they need to do is wait one turn and they'll draw a card automatically.  Anyway, some cool new tech came up round 2:

Leyline of Anticipation, Black Lotus, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

This shuts down any deck that relies on Black Lotus, by making lotus cost 1.  I also like it, because unlike Phyrexian Revoker which could also be used to turn off Black Lotus, Thalia has first strike, so she doesn't get a draw against every deck that gets a 1/1 out through Chancellor of the Forge or whatever.

Black Lotus, Balance, The Rack

Basically, if you get to cast Balance, you should win.  The only exception is against Emrakul, since Emmy shuffles your graveyard into your library, and thus your opponent will draw back up to 3 cards and not take damage from The Rack.  It's shut down by anti-Black Lotus tech of course (Force of Will, instant Thalia.  I also saw Leyline of Anticipation combined with Chalice of the Void on zero).

3xMemnite.  For some strange reason, this is a deck.  And for some strange reason it's not as bad as it sounds.  (Would tie against the deck I ran, for instance--they play two Memnites to force out my pyro, killing both, and then play a third Memnite.  Dies to decks that win fast, or have tricks like instant speed Thalia/chalice).

The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Inkmoth Nexus, Cathedral of War

Another variant on the all land deck, and honestly probably better than the Dark Depths ones?  Dark Depths wins the heads-up match, because it can pay for Tabernacle, and is faster.  But this is still pretty fast, and lots of decks just can't pay the upkeep from Tabernacle, like any deck that leans on Black Lotus.

Black Lotus, Black Lotus, Barren Glory

Stumped my deck; I was ready to use burn on Laboratory maniacs.  Who prepares removal for enchantments???  There's black lotus hate out there, though, and any of that beats this deck.

Other interesting stuff I saw: variant Eldrazi.  Like...Black Lotus, Channel, Ulamog, which is interesting.

Black Lotus, Liliana's Specter, Leyline of Anticiaption

This deck is actually really cool.  How much of a 3 card hand do you have to make someone discard before they are crippled?  Usually on 2 cards, a deck can kinda operate, often pump out 2 damage a turn, but because this was cast with Flash, it attacks first, and because it has flying, the opponent has to race.



So anyway, going into round 3.  There's now one more banned card.  (Balance).  My deck did pretty good (46).  I considered running the same deck, but it does lose to Lab Maniac decks.  And I kinda want variety.  The instant speed shenanigans with Thalia are pretty neat, but they lose to Force of Will, and lose to land decks (and land decks did well this time).  I did consider Thalia with Strip Mine instead of Leyline of anticipation.  It then loses the instant speed aspect and only gets a 50% win rate against the decks it really wants to kill.  I considered running a laboratory maniac deck but with Street Wraith instead of Gitaxian Probe.  But a lot of the neat and shiny decks right now are built to be mean to black lotus, like flash Thalia decks.  And a lot of the cool decks right now are built around Black Lotus.  So...my next round deck is going to be like...

Force of Will, Snapback, Chancellor of the Forge

Choosing Chancellor here as the wincon, because it bypasses some of the removal (remember how I said last round I used Wasteland to win against Force of Will decks?  Yeah, let's not die to Wasteland).  I also like this, because it doesn't auto-lose to every 3 land deck.  It actually beats the Dark Depths deck, because it bounces the 20/20 token.  Decks it loses to?  Any deck running Cavern of Souls more or less.  ALSO 3X MEMNITE, OH GOD.  I wonder if I should have done Lab Maniac Street Wraith....
« Last Edit: March 28, 2015, 04:40:01 PM by metroid composite »