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Author Topic: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)  (Read 132449 times)

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #825 on: March 10, 2021, 12:52:22 AM »
Roof: 0 resets

Doguola Pass: 1 reset (multiple blade grasp failures).

---

What I want to do in this post though is look back at the hard ban list, the one where gained JP Up and carriers get banned.  Reminder, this is what we have:

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

Specifically I want to revisit this section:

13. Samurai
14. Knight
15. Mediator
16. Archer
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief

Basically, my logic for the full tail end was bad (a lot of it based around chantage poaching), as shown by Dark Holy Elf's playthrough where with Geomancer/Thief/Archer/Dancer/Mediator legal he stomped the game hard enough that stopping to poach wasn't really merited.

But the only things I really moved based on the new evidence was Geomancers up, and Knights up as they helped in the chapter Dark Holy Elf said was hardest (Chapter 1).

But like...my whole original logic was bad, and I should have moved more than two classes.

I'm looking at this now, and thinking Archer should be above Mediator, Samurai should be lower, and I'm...not confident in Knight being so high.

Starting from 13....

13: Archer. So like, after banning Geomancer, which means Samurai have essentially no carrier classes, I believe I was thinking "probably still ban Samurai next right?  Only serious skillset left, even without a carrier class".  But playing through a Samurai SCC now...would I sail through the game doing this if I had 900 less JP due to not unlocking Samurai until the start of Chapter 3?  (Move+2 would help a lot, but still).  I think the way you would run a party with only these classes legal is mostly an Archer SCC, that can switch to other classes if it needs to wear a chameleon robe, that can set Equip Sword if it needs more damage for Velius, and where one or two characters go to Dancer to really trivialize mooks.  Maybe pick up speed break with bows to smash Altima.  Maybe send one character to Samurai for healing and Kiyomori.  This sure looks like Archer.  I'm thinking I will start an Archer SCC next to make sure I'm not crazy in thinking they are preferable to a mostly Samurai party, but...yeah, until presented with evidence otherwise.

14: So ok, now our damage has dropped quite a bit.  We can use guns with mediator.  We can get solid damage as a Thief with Equip Sword, which might very well be the build of choice against Velius.  We can maybe circumvent the need for damage on fights like Altima by coming with a bunch of people with guns and with Speed Break.  We can go Samurai and bring a lot of damage and range in Chapter 4 (Equip Sword for Rune Blades or Equip Shield for Agies Shield or switching to Knight means more MA than a Samurai SCC; like probably 160 damage with Kikuichimoji.  Another class that might be worth switching to for Samurai that want MA is Mediator--Mediators can also wear robes, have a similar MA mult to Knights, but can wear hats when speed is needed).  The Samurai path is going to basically be a drag on the team until mid-late Chapter 4, though.  Although if they stop to get something useful before they get Samurai, they don't need to be a drag (Dance or Equip Gun are the options I'm looking at; slows down any plans to learn Samurai skills which were already being learned slow due to a lack of Gained JP Up and unlock requirements, but still).  Two classes are jumping out here.  Knight, which is still the solid class in Chapter 1, and which keeps showing up, whether for equip sword or speed breaks or just its stats.  And Mediator.  Five people with guns do actually just beat Velius; while a party with some Equip Sword Thieves probably kills more efficiently, you would probably still bring gun users cause you can't get five people in melee range same turn.  And maybe, just maybe we might be reaching a point now where a little grinding is justified to beat the challenge without a high reset count.  And the moment you open the grinding door even a little bit, Mediators pop in and are like "sooo...wanna poach some chantages?  Wanna invite some people with elemental guns?  Wanna invite a Tiamat and use triple breath to deal 999 to Altima?"

Knight and Mediator both present good Velius strategies that don't require the other class (although Knight leans on Thief, both for thief equipment,  and for Move+2).  Knight plus Mediator presents good Altima strategies (speed breaking with guns).  Mediator also presents some good solo strategies for Altima if even a small amount of grinding is thrown in (elemental guns or inviting a Tiamat).  Balk 2 strategies...Knight can contribute Equip Shield for Flame Shield Rubber Shoes Thief Hat combos to shut down the damage of the fight.  Mediator can contribute Train.  Samurai with Kikuichimoji present the highest damage long range attack with which to hit Balk (other than elemental guns or invited Tiamats).  But Dancer might actually shut down the fight harder than any of them due to statusing all the monsters?

So I guess it comes down to...do I think Chapter 1 will still be the hardest chapter after Geomancer and Archer get the boot? (Eh, not sure; Archer/Geo do a LOT for later chpaters and not much for Chapter 1).  And do I think even a small amount of grinding is merited, opening up Mediator invitation shenanigans or is the challenge still too easy to justify that?  Thing is...if the challenge is so easy that grinding isn't merited, the two things that would be keeping it out of the "merited" range would be guns and dance.  Don't think Knights with Move+2 or Thieves with Equip Sword are really in the "comfortably beat the game without grinding or needing to reset much" range, and my confidence on Samurai beating the game without resets or grinding is...currently a bit low thanks to my SCC testing.  Bards and Mimes...it's unclear if unlocking those classes is even worth it. 

So this draws my eye to Mediator and Dancer as the jobs that might make this still comfortable to beat without grinding.

Am I overlooking Dance too much?  Eh, maybe, Dance seems to be doing a lot, but Dance still doesn't contribute much to problem fights like Altima, Velius, Wiegraf.

Thinking Mediator?

15: OK, so it's 15, Samurai still hasn't been banned, but...neither has Knight.  And banning Knight is going to make Velius a serious problem.  Basically means there isn't really a good way to do the fight without some grinding. 

(Footnote on "not grinding" methods for Velius: Well...ok technically, you could go Bard Ramza, and build up some comical amount of PA in the Wiegraf fight from Battle Song, although labelling this as a "not grinding" method is a bit suspect cause when you raise your Speed 10 times and PA 20 times you do gain like...3 levels and 600 JP on Ramza in the process, so...ehhh...not sure that counts).

What else is going on?  ...Obviously Knights are getting better and better in the early chapters as their early competition is stripped away; now looking like they largely bring most of the power in Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.  Thief bringing Move+2 is the other big relevant early contribution.  But on the flip side, Dancer into Samurai is also looking like a hot, hot build.  You're going to want some Dancers--long range, evade ignoring, destroys statusable enemies.  And Samurai is a strong exit strategy for them since the one thing Dancers lack is damage, and Samurai can provide that...eventually, with enough JP investment.  Dancers and Samurai both want to be female, so that's nice too.

Thief I guess deserves some credit here as they contribute both early and late--early on to the Knights with Move+2, and later on to Samurai with Dance and Move+2.

But on the whole, I can't help but feel Knights have the most impact on Chapter 1, the most impact on Chapter 2, and while Dancers do a bunch of mook smashing in Chapter 3, and maybe you see some Koutetsu from a Samurai in Chapter 3, Knight still rises to the top when it actually matters (Equip Sword for Velius).  That's like three chapters Knight could be argued to be the MVP.  Knight

16: Samurai OK, let me first state the obvious; we're definitely in the realm of grinding now.  If you want to beat this comfortably without a bunch of resets, you need to grind for at least one of Samurai or Dancer, or else you're doing a Thief SCC for the first two chapters.  And grinding out Dancer alone isn't enough cause they have damage issues for boss blitzes, eventually they will need Samurai.  While Samurai without grinding also has trouble with boss blitzes, Samurai with grinding and Move+2 can absolutely pack damage.  And it's not like, with grinding, they would struggle with mook smashing if Dancer was taken away--they have blade grasp and evade ignoring moves for mooks.

17: Dancer

18: Red Chocobo

19: Thief  I assume these three stay the same.

This makes the amended hard ban list (where carrier classes, Gained JP Up, phoenix down, etc get banned)...

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Archer
14. Mediator
15. Knight
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime
« Last Edit: March 10, 2021, 01:00:57 AM by metroid composite »

DragonKnight Zero

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #826 on: March 10, 2021, 06:46:55 AM »
FFT Special character class ranking continued.

6: Steel Giant: Work's damage is based on PA, which it has.  High HP is also valued which it also has.  What it lacks is Speed, being somewhere between an unequipped Summoner and a Lancer.  Yet despite the Speed weakness as well as a few other unique weaknesses, the Steel Giant didn't feel scrubby to use.  The ranged attack doesn't require a line of sight and it gets an innate Defense Up.  Counter too though it doesn't come into play that often with Defense Up in place.  Also immune to six elements which is convenient for Earth Slash, among other options.

So immune to Faith-based magic and takes reduced damage from physicals.  Very few opponents have any sort of ability capable of dealing full damage to the 'bot.  This is a trait that is unique to its class.

Auto-innocent conveys some unique advantages and disadvantages, which I won't go into here.  Then there are the weaknesses.  One is low mobility, which combined with low speed, means most of its skillset doesn't see use.  It's also immune to buffs, most notably Haste so Ramza is one of the few options for speeding up your mechanical buddy.  That lightning weakness gives it a few unique vulnerabilities that only squids share.  Non-Faith based lightning will bring it down quickly.  Skeletons can make a large dent but it's the Red Dragons that are especially dangerous to Worker 8.  Combined with its immunity to Faith based magic, it will become very difficult to get it online and healthy once it has been subjected to lightning breath.

7. Engineer (Mustadio): I feel weird putting Engineer this high.  It has 115% Speed but its other stats are unimpressive.  However Snipe is a Speed and weapon based skillset and Engineer has access to hats and guns innately so it does meet the main criteria of this ranking. being well suited to supporting its native skillset.  Also has robes which support spell gun + Black Robe while still leaving the support slot and accessory free.
  With his mediocre multipliers in MP, PA, and MA, he doesn't have many strong options for secondaries but there are a few that are decent.  Item is OK.  Not amazing given how the AI preys on low HP people (and therefore better for high HP units that don't get picked on as much) but independent of his stats.  Charge for squeezing out more gun damage.  Battle Skill has some situational applications.  Throw feels redundant but does grow in strength unlike gun damage.  Jump with a spell gun is an unusual option that can sometimes do more damage than Attack (more often as levels increase) and the high Speed of the class supports connecting those Jumps.

8. Soldier: Of the three sword using classes Cloud can pick from, Soldier has the highest MA for powering Limits.  Also has a good HP multiplier to fuel Blade Beam, as little as this means it's still something.  The other stats aren't that important in the context of Limit but the class has high multipliers so Cloud can use most secondaries decently.  Only average Speed but can wear hats.  Being able to equip ribbons is a unique niche that no other male character has though I'm not coming up with any situations where I'd be willing to give up the +2 Speed and the HP of the Thief Hat for greater status protection.

  Despite Soldier having way better multipliers than Engineer (speed excepted), decided to put it below Engineer in my ranking because of threat range.  Mustadio gets 3 Move + 8 ranged gun for a total of 11 before movement increases.  Cloud has 3 Move and 3 threat range in most common cases.  This is a rather noticeable difference in how frequently Cloud can attack.

OK, now I'm getting into classes where the characters I feel perform better by changing into another class and setting their unique skill as the secondary if they want to use it.  Granted Byblos doesn't have a choice but if it did...

9. Heaven Knight: Both Heaven and Hell Knights feel really close in this ranking and could flip positions based on mood or just placing more importance on different criteria.  Heaven Knight has the same issue as Holy Knight where its stat multipliers try to do both physical and magical and end up not being great at either.  Even 100% multipliers across the board other than Speed which it excels at with 115%.  And hats.  If she had something to channel all that speed into, she'd feel more competitive.  My experiences with playing with Heaven Knight are to take shots with Truth if outside stick poking range or are fortunate enough to target multiple enemies and poke with stick on individuals.  Female MA has me give it the nod in this ranking as it will provide more power to its skillset and its stick pokes.

10. Hell Knight: I want to like Hell Knight as a class.  4 Move, 110% Speed and hats, and sticks.  No glaring stat weaknesses (no real strengths either and its MP is almost pointless since it's awful with any skills that require MP.  I find I play it similarly to Heaven Knight and with male MA, Malak is statistically worse at the approach.  Even before factoring in how awful Un-Truth is. 

I've settled upon my ranking so the shortlist is up.  Later entries to be revealed when I type up my thoughts on them.

1. Holy Swordsman
2. Squire (C4 Ramza)
3. Temple Knight
4. Divine Knight (Meliadoul)
5. Holy Knight (Agrias)
6. Steel Giant (Worker 8)
7. Engineer (Mustadio)
8. Soldier
9. Heaven Knight
10. Hell Knight
11. ??
12. ??
« Last Edit: March 12, 2021, 05:11:11 AM by DragonKnight Zero »

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #827 on: March 13, 2021, 01:42:45 AM »
Huh, I think I must be thinking of LFT, cause I could have sworn Malak could equip some stuff Rafa couldn't.  Yep, I am definitely thinking of LFT, where Malak has innate two swords and can equip rods.

In vanilla he has exactly the same equipment as Rafa (Staff, Stick, Hat, Clothes, Robe) and overall slightly worse multipliers before factoring in that he's also male.  Oof.

DragonKnight Zero

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #828 on: March 13, 2021, 04:16:46 AM »
Malak has higher MP and PA going solely by numbers.  Neither of which actually matter to classes with MA powered weapons and skillsets that don't use MP.  I did crosscheck with a save file of mine too since there are a few errors lurking in the BMG to trip the presumptuous.  (He also has higher raw MP on my file somehow but that's irrelevant to the topic at hand)

Last two classes to write up:

11. Dragoner: Unlike previous classes which leaned towards average stat multipliers, Dragoner has great stats.  Picture a Mime but with much better MP and slightly less MA.  What drags it down for this ranking is an almost complete inability to wear equipment.  And even though it has a bunch of innate support skills, they're mostly inconsequential.  Monster Talk does nothing unless Talk Skill is the secondary since the Dragon skillset doesn't need it to function.  Two Swords sounds cool but without any Brave tweaking, two punches do less damage than a equal leveled Meliadoul whacking something with Excalibur.  Train is mostly whatever because of low damage punches and that the formation screen is probably already packed.  Also in the lategame, having a well-built team probably does more than seeking new allies.  It does have a niche in taming chocobos for allies to ride while still having 5 active ally units on the field, OK I'll give it that.
  If it weren't for incredible growth (which I'm not factoring into the ranking here), 140% HP mult won't really close the gap that a lack of armor creates.  With only 3 move and an inability to wear boots to increase that and 2 range on her attacks, Dragoner often spends the battle out of attack range.  (sure Holy Bracelet exists with better range and MT capability but hahaha good luck hitting with it)  Poor movement is yet another reason why innate Two Swords is mostly inconsequential.  Lack of equipment options also means no options for using gear for stat boosting.  So Dragoner ends up being not that great at carrying its own skillset.  Best option for Dragoner is 108 Gems for the element boosts. Compare that to say, a Geomancer where she can put on a Rune Blade and an Aegis Shield and it is already up +3 MA, more than enough to make up the difference in base MA.  And with 1 more Move than Dragoner.  I'd throw on Red Shoes for more mobility and another MA point and she's become much better at closing range.  Mage classes with Black Robe and Red Shoes will also be good carriers for those who really want to use the Dragon skillset (middling as it is).

12. Byblos: The skillset operates independent of stats other than HP, which is does get.  The Speed is terrible though, maybe a bit more than Steel Giant (gets Speed points a bit faster, mostly not noticeable).  3 Move and low speed are an awful combo.  It does have higher range on its skills and I debated putting Dragoner at the bottom of the list due to range differences.  Decided that the fire weakness is enough of a drawback to put Byblos' class at the very bottom.  That and low speed make it very vulnerable to getting fried by Wizards.  It's actually the final sequence that was the deciding factor.  Rofel's mages are a threat.  Kletian's Ninjas can nail the fire weakness.  Balk's chemist will roast it.  Hashulam has Melt to melt it.  So after going to all the trouble to recruit it, only two out of the last six fights do not put it at risk of high fire damage?  Yikes.
  Poor thing, since fire weakness is less of an issue than lightning weakness in general.  Only Hydras and Tiamats (and Ninjas) have high fire damage with Now timing and they're deadly to everything. (Math Skill mages are rare enough to not really be an issue) Byblos does get innate Ignore Height, Counter, and Secret Hunt but how much of a difference does that really make.  Ignore Height is neat though only relevant on maps with large elevation differences.  Secret Hunt will rarely come into play with 3 Move and low Speed.  Counter is welcome though with PA about on par with a Red Panther, don't expect really big numbers from it unless high leveled (like in the 70s or more).  Also 3 Move and low speed so how often is it really going to be close to the action?

Skillset is nice but if it had a choice, Byblos would probably change classes to something with better parameters.

Final ranking though by no means definitive.  There are many possible arguments to make that could shift ranks around, only some of which occurred to me.

1. Holy Swordsman
2. Squire (C4 Ramza)
3. Temple Knight
4. Divine Knight (Meliadoul)
5. Holy Knight (Agrias)
6. Steel Giant (Worker 8)
7. Engineer (Mustadio)
8. Soldier
9. Heaven Knight
10. Hell Knight
11. Dragoner
12. Byblos

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #829 on: March 13, 2021, 07:58:04 AM »
Hadn't picked up Samurai SCC in a bit.  Part of what I was interested in was the contrast between Samurai and Archer, so picked up Archer SCC for a bit instead.

Pretty big contrast of being broke in Chapter 1, unlike samurai which did a ton of randoms to unlock the class.  Not being able to afford battle boots often behind on hats or clothing, never bought armor for Delita/Algus to go to Knight.

1 reset on Dorter 1 (probably preventable; made some obvious mistakes and forgot to put Move+1 and potion on Delita).  1 reset on Sand Rat Cellar.  Bow Gun does 15 with line of sight issues so cleaning up a fight if something goes wrong is not very fast, and not everyone had a charge skill learned for these fights.

And then you get longbows.  0 resets everywhere else so far.  Forgot that Silver Bows are buyable after Lenalia Plateau, lol, so I did 3 fights with 20% less damage.

Everyone has either Charge+2 or Charge+3 depending on where their JP was at the time, and are now saving up for Concentrate.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #830 on: March 15, 2021, 06:14:33 AM »
Archers past Golgorand; luckily for me this is around when I learned Arrow Guard.  Had arrow guard on 4 people by that fight, and bought the highest HP clothing on everyone, which, with a little luck, was enough.  Only 1 reset so far in Chapter 2: in Bariaus Valley (right side got perma-charmed by an enemy archer that never failed a steal heart).

Realized I'm going to have to grind to 18 in order to do Wiegraf because Charge is unlike other delayed action skillsets and eats your wait in spot CT.  (And against Wiegraf I need both 108 gems and Charge+5 or my damage will be too low, needs level 18 for the speed point.  If Charge allowed for wait in spot CT it would be doable at level 14).

Overall class doesn't feel jaw dropping or anything.  Bow damage right now is 36, so about the same as gun damage before charge.  Bows with concentrate kinda feels like guns with extra steps at the moment.  But I guess it's "guns with extra steps" that also gets access to charge and arrow guard, which are both pretty cool.

---

EDIT: about 5 resets at Gate of Lionel.  So the basic plan was rubber shoes on people, Ramza opens the gate and dies, kill Gafgarion, Ramza revives.  This hit a couple snags.  First was Knights highrolling with geomancy status (petrify landing is really bad.  Confusion landing is...almost as bad as petrify cause I can't damage my own units when I have lightning bows and rubber shoes).  Second was that Gaf runs forward through an archway, and I'm not good at knowing what positions will be blocked for bows under the archway.  Moving forward to shoot Gaf, and then not being able to shoot Gaf is...bad.

Doesn't necessarily signal weakness of the class--might be me being bad at knowing Archer bow arcs under archways.  (Also might be partially RNG--enemies turbo highrolled with geomancy, like...two different runs with two archers petrified by turn 2.  Although...there was at least one loss where no knights had geomancy, so it wasn't all RNG).

0 resets on queklain.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2021, 09:11:43 AM by metroid composite »

Dark Holy Elf

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #831 on: March 16, 2021, 04:55:33 AM »
For what it's worth, I do think the unintuitive arrow arcing mechanics is absolutely a weakness of the class (albeit a small one). If you can be screwed over by a mechanic so obscure that even the FFT BMG doesn't document it, I think it's fair to associate that with the class itself.

Erwin Schrödinger will kill you like a cat in a box.
Maybe.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #832 on: March 29, 2021, 09:56:22 AM »
This makes the amended hard ban list (where carrier classes, Gained JP Up, phoenix down, etc get banned)...

1. Calc
2. Chemist
3. Summoner
4. Wizard
5. Squire
6. Priest
7. Time Mage
8. Ninja
9. Lancer
10. Oracle
11. Monk
12. Geomancer
13. Archer
14. Mediator
15. Knight
16. Samurai
17. Dancer
18. Red Chocobos (from Boco)
19. Thief
20. Bard
21. Mime

OK, well got kinda sick, and also distracted by other games, haven't been playing FFT, but I tentatively adjusted the hard ban tier list a while ago without editing a new image, but...before I edit a new image does the logic still hold up?

Knight with some Archer should cover chapter 1.  Archer does okay in Chapter 2 up until Lionel Gate, but really worth noting that...while Samurai also needed rubber shoes and switching Ramza to a higher HP class, they did have an easier time at Lionel Gate.  Draw Out's just more damage single target, and gets to hit multi-target.  Part of this is just "it's chapter 2" though, where everything that uses MA is strong.

Do guns eliminate the problems Archers have in this fight?  They might help a little, but not much.  Same damage.  Still struggle with Gaffy walking through a narrow archway.

Under a no grinding plan, given that Gained JP Up is banned, do you even unlock Samurai and get 180 JP for Koutetsu by this fight?  Judging by JP numbers on my Archer SCC...I think possible, but barely.  Probably involves some questionable stuff like going into Golgorand on a prereq job or possibly a Samurai with no skills, so that would suck.  Well...but only if you were getting supported by spillover JP, so maybe you don't actually have Samurai unlocked if you aren't getting much spillover to help the unlocking.

What about Dancer?  I mean, speaking of classes that do better in early chapters; Wiznaibus would probably be impressive here.  But...no without Gained JP Up, the prereqs are about 1500 JP, people on my Archer SCC people were like 1000-1300 total JP before Lionel (and that's with spillover support).

What about Knight?  Knight with Concentrate and Charge can wear high HP Equipment (enough to soak some gaffy hits) and hit harder than Archers at this point, which helps both with blitzing down the fight if someone dies, and helps with blitzing down gaffy, and helps with the line of sight issues in the archway letting more people hit.

Yeah...that sounds like Knight would work; often I just needed to hit with one more person without blocking other character's line of sight, and a knight could move to his side and still be able to attack (whereas archers can't attack from the side due to not being able  to blindfire inside an archway).

Should Knight be considered for #13 instead of Archer?  Well...maybe.  But you're probably still using mostly Archers for the fight, maybe 1 or 2 Knights, and even on the Knight characters leaning on Archer skills such as Concentrate, Charge, so...not really.

And once Archer goes, the quirk of ban-a-thon lists rears its head where Mediator now has no competition for ranged attacks, so still probably goes immediately after.  And...probably some grinding is required if you want to beat some of these fight without resets, but Mediator does some silly things with grinding like inviting monsters and poaching and picking up elemental guns.  Also...pretty tempted to learn Equip Gun on like...every character.  Mediator #14 is probably fine.

Since we're probably in the realm of grinding at this point, does Samurai overtake Knight for #15?  Like...you probably do grind if you want to beat Chapter 2 with low numbers of resets.  The problem for Samurai is that I think I care more about Dancer's impact on Chapter 2 than Samurai's.  The opposite side of the coin of ban-a-thons, where two similar classes can just hold each other down.  And until you unlock one of those two, you do lean hard on Knight.  And Knight thanks to Equip Sword is still a big deal in Chapter 3 to kill Velius.  In fact, Chapter 4 Knight with access to Ice Healing, Dance, and Move+2 sounds like it smashes the chapter just fine.  Yeah, the argument for Samurai over Knight here seems weak.  Knight #15 still sounds fine.

So ok, updated image:


metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #833 on: June 21, 2021, 08:44:15 AM »
So Artosis did a Starcraft Brood War unit tier list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWfZiQEHgj0

I don't really agree with all of his placements, but it's a good jumping off point.

First, I want to discuss what the probe, drone, SCV, and overlord rankings actually mean, since obviously if you told someone they couldn't build these, they just wouldn't be able to do anything.  Artosis makes some pretty good points with the probe and how a probe on the map is really dangerous:

1. Probe can gas steal
2. Probe can cannon rush
3. Probe is good at scouting and harassment due to regenerating shields

So like...when I ask a question like "can you win without probes?" it's going to imply "can you win without sending probes out on the map, without attacking with probes, or using probes for combat functions like blocking ramps?"  And...you can, but you are certainly hurt in several ways--you'll struggle with early scouting, your early offense options are significantly diminished, you can't play greedy and then defend against cheese with probe micro.

One other thing I want to declare in advance--Artosis made declarations on unit power based on whether they are used in all matchups, and I agree with that BUT I'm going to put slightly less weight on mirror matchups.  (Like...the defiler is almost never used in ZvZ, but should that lower its tier ranking?  Probably not, right--it's still so impactful against the two other matchups.  Meanwhile, the Battlecruiser is used almost entirely in TvT, which means deleting it from the game would not upset race balance).

Ok, so S-tier, these are units that are way out of line at what they do, basically end up defining brood war.  These are units that if you had access to all three races you'd be looking to build:

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel

Zergling damage is just well above what would be expected.  Worth noting that it was substantially reduced in starcraft 2.  The zergling is a matchup defining unit built in large numbers in all three matchups.

Mutalisks are funny because their stats were actually buffed for starcraft 2, and they're not nearly as good there.  The AI pathfinding is just so bad in brood war that flying units that don't get stuck bumping into each other are very hard to deal with.  In addition, nearly all damage that hits air is explosive damage, which means mutalisks take half damage from it.  And of the base flying units, mutalisks are the only ones that have a ground attack just as good as their air attack, making them a threat even to people building full ground armies.

Defiler spells just warp how you have to play against Zerg.  A lot of armies just can't damage under Dark Swarm at all.  And Plague outright shuts down a lot of strategies and units against zerg.  Being able to get energy back fast with consume is also excellent.

High Templar...brood war storm is special.  Compared to Starcraft 2 storm, it's like 50% more damage, and does its full damage in half the time, so even if you react quickly and move out of the storm, you still take tons of damage.

If Siege Tanks could hit air, I don't think there would be any army that could reliably beat mass siege tank.  Not that they can't ever be broken with ground units, but in a ground war they are generally the most important unit.

Science Vessels are just completely matchup-defining in Terran vs Zerg.  In a lategame TvZ, casters will tell you to not look at the supply count, not look at anything the zerg has, just look at the Science Vessel count, and this will be the most accurate measure of who is winning.  They're also very powerful in TvP.  Just being a detector is very useful against both Dark Templar and Arbiters.  EMP removes all shields which is excellent damage, but also blanks out the energy on spellcasters like high templar and arbiters.  Defense Matrix is also a highly useful spell in the right situation.

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A-tier these are units that the race would really struggle to function without.  If you couldn't use these units (in a combat role) for a day, the race would be in a lot of trouble in multiple matchups.  If you had access to all races, you definitely would think about using some of these.

A: Vulture, Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge

Vulture is honestly on the A/S borderline.  What they do is pretty ridiculous for 75 minerals.  Fastest unit in the game.  Able to drop 3 mines, any one of which can one-shot more expensive units.  Able to kill worker lines.  Able to give lots of map vision with mines.  But...they're non-essential against zerg, and in TvT they're more of an earlygame thing that drops off.  I did just watch an FFA custom map where people had access to all races, and only one player made vultures, switching off of them later in the game once they had upgrades on zerglings.

Probe as discussed is the scariest worker, can cannon rush, is excellent at harassment, can build an assimilator in the opponent's base to gas steal.  Is pretty essential for scouting since protoss really doesn't have a good alternative for an early scout.  As well as all the normal things you expect out of workers like helping defend against rushes.

Overlords are excellent detection, so good at scouting that zerg often doesn't even bother with sending a scouting drone, good for dropping, as well as being basically free cause you're going to build them anyway for supply.  I've straight up seen an overlord get mind controlled in a game that had become a 1v1, cause the protoss needed a dropship, and then later it was used as a detector.  There might be an argument for S-tier here, but ehh...just because you build overlords doesn't mean you'll get drop upgrades or bring them with your army for detection.

Dragoon among all of the massable ranged units that can hit air like Hydralisks and Goliaths and Marines are just clearly the best.  Why are they the best?  Cause Marines have 40 HP, Hydralisks have 80 HP, Goliaths have 125 HP, and Psionic Storm deals 120 damage.  But Dragoons have 180 HP (and they are also really fat, so even poorly controlled they don't bunch up as much against splash damage like storm and siege tanks).

Zealots get used in every matchup, they're a great mineral sink, they are basically zerglings with 4x the health, but then ultralisks are zealots with not even 4x the health, so you know.

Scourge get a lot of value in every matchup, and are just probably the best anti-air option in the game.  The existence of scourge just changes how you have to play against zerg.

---

B-tier: These are units that are still kind-of game warping, or just really important to the functionality of their race.

B-tier: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Reaver, Dropship, SCV, Observer

Lurker: my first pass of this had these in A-tier because they are so central to Zerg lategame, but in the end I'm conceding Artosis this one, every other race has better ground AoE.  Zerg needs some kind of ground AoE, so they cling to lurkers, and it is essential to them, but they're not siege tanks, and they're not high templar.  Not even close.

Shuttle, Dropship: Yeah, so look, Shuttle is definitely a little better than Dropship, and my original list reflected this, but bottom line, neither Terran nor Protoss wants to give up shuttles or dropships in any matchup.  Would you build either of these if you had access to all three races?  Fuck no, you'd use overlords.  If you had access to only Terran and Protoss would you ever build a Dropship?  I mean, you might, if you teched to starport before stargate.  Dropships are also faster than Shuttles before getting the shuttle upgrade (after which shuttle is faster).  I think, while one of these is clearly a bit better, they are close enough to be same tier.

Golaith: You never really want to mass up on these, you just do so as a response to air units.  They do have the best ground to air attack, of course (8 range, much more damage than their ground to ground attack).  And are just all around pretty good units (even their ground attack is honestly fairly solid).

Dark Templar: If you told a protoss player they had to not build Dark Templar, they could...function.  No one race requires going DT.  But they are quite strong, including in subtle ways (if they kill something in one hit, like a worker, there's no notification, so even pro players don't necessarily notice).  Usable in all three matchups.  Reasonably important vs T.

Reaver: As I've mentioned before, I'm putting less weight on mirror matchups, and this does just break PvP.  But in the other matchups...it's okay.  You can make Reavers against Terran or Zerg, and they are quite effective.  But it wouldn't be weird to play a match against Terran or Zerg without them.

SCV: These do three things above and beyond a regular worker that I think deserves a callout in this tier.  One is scout.  Marines are a terrible scouting option, and it's not great to wait until vulture.  Another is repairing.  They can repair tanks, and that's pretty good.  Another is building turrets next to their tanks in the middle of the map.  SCVs are worth bringing with a tank push against both Terran and Protoss, and I think that, along with all the other things that workers do like using them to defend rushes, is enough to justify them in this tier.

Observer: look, yes, observers are the worst detection, they move really slow, they have garbage vision range, I get it.  But it's a little like the Lurker, yeah, your race is bad at this, what are you gonna do, not bother?  LOL good luck with that.

---

C-tier: The race definitely doesn't want to lose these, but it might only hurt them in one matchup

Corsair, Marine, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone

Corsairs are only used in one matchup (against zerg) but of the games I've watched recently, corsairs get built basically every game against zerg.  The only thing holding corsairs back is that they have no ground attack.  Other than that, remember how I said mutas were good because they are light, and everything that hits air deals explosive damage?  Corsairs are medium, so they also benefit from that (but not as much).  Tons of health (180).  Their singletarget damage against air is fine (about the same as a dragoon) but they have AoE splash.  And they're tied for the fastest air unit.  And they can moving shot.  And their build time is fast (tied for fastest build time among protoss units).  The only thing that holds them back is that air units suck so no one builds them, so they have nothing to shoot at.  The moment they have air units to kill (against zerg) they are pretty great.

Marines and Medics are non-viable in two matchups cause they get murdered by splash damage at long range, but they are very core against zerg.  Not completely core, you can go mech, but still most TvZ games are still Marine Medic.

Archons are units you'd only ever actually want against zerg, since they're solid against zerglings.  But they are basically free after high templar so you'll use them incidentally in other matchups.

Hydralisks tend to end up being core against Protoss.  Which is funny, for years against protoss you wouldn't see many of them, it's not like they're great units.  But then corsairs were everywhere, and hydras are the only ground unit zerg has that can attack air units.  And building air units to kill corsairs is suicide, because the Corsairs will win.  Basically, because corsairs are meta, Zerg has to go hydra every time against protoss.

Drone really doesn't do anything special the way the other workers do.  But you can attack with them if you get rushed.  And defending rushes is still a sufficiently core enough part of the game that I don't think it makes sense to put Drone lower than C-tier.

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D-tier: These units are used rarely or are used in one matchup but not every game

Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk

Firebat is used lategame as a way to fight against dark swarm, since they will do full damage underneath dark swarm (and also have pretty good AoE against zerglings).

Wraith is...something I basically don't see against protoss, occasionally see against zerg as a way of killing overlords or killing guardains, and is pretty good in Terran vs Terran to prevent the opponent from building only siege tanks, but I weigh mirror matches a little bit lower.

Carrier is built almost exclusively in Protoss vs Terran, and even then it's not that popular of a tech switch in the high level games I've watched recently.  You need a lot of time, with a lot of your resources and army basically hidden (it's very bad if it gets scanned early allowing the Terran to switch into Goliaths).

Ultralisk is used almost exclusively in Zerg vs Terran these days.  I do remember years ago seeing them against protoss, but I believe they are just a one race unit now.  Compared to the Zealot they have 2.5x the health, with 1.8x the damage, for 4x the price.  So the same way the zealot is less efficient but fatter than the zergling, the ultra is less efficient but fatter than the zealot.  But unlike the zealot they cost gas too.  But still, they have fast movement speed (with the upgrade faster than zealots), and if you upgrade their armour then subtraction defence means marines struggle to kill them.  So they can be a lategame pick in this matchup sometimes.

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E-tier: limited to relatively niche uses in usually one matchup

Guardian, Valkyrie, Queen, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

Guardians get used sometimes when a terran has countered the mutalisks, but might not have a good way of dealing with guardians, or when there's a really weird map with a bunch of open space.  They tend not to be used against protoss unless all the corsairs get killed.  They don't show up against zerg.  Against Terran they tend to be a one-time "gotcha" surprise.  I do wonder about moving these up to D-tier, since I do see them in pro games a decent amount, but I mean, they're definitely a step below carriers and ultralisks and firebats, so this is probably the place for them.

Valkyries are used...other than the mirror matchup where all the bad terran air units get made, get used sometimes as a response when Zerg goes unusually mutalisk heavy, and any other build would die to them (science vessels are not fast enough for the mass muta surprise kill you).

Queens are made sometimes when a lategame Terran goes very tank heavy, and then spawn broodling can be used to kill the tanks.  This requires a ton of planning ahead, hiding the queens for a long time since Spawn Broodling costs 150 energy.  There are also some niche uses to queens; ensnare completely negates the effects of stim on marines, which means there are some timing builds that use queens.  There is some argument for these in D-tier, but...I just don't see them in pro matches as often as I see ultralisks, and see them more often used as a tank counter than a stim marine counter (and the 150 energy buildup thing where you need to hide them for that long is a fairly harsh limitation for that, plus it's more of a reactive response if the terran is going too tank heavy, can't just autopilot tech to queens).

Dark Archon is on the lower end of this group I think?  If you can tech to them, they are very scary.  Mind control can completely change the game.  Maelstrom is excellent against zerg.  But...I very rarely see anyone tech to them at all.

Battlecruisers are really only used in Terran vs Terran.  Against Protoss they are too weak to arbiters.  Against Zerg they will occasionally get used as harassment in ones or twoes.  But mostly it's a lategame option against Terran (much like Carriers and Ultras are lategame anti-terran options).  But I'm weighing mirror matches lower--if Battlecruisers stopped existing, it would do almost nothing to the balance of the game.

Ghosts are also a primarily Terran vs Terran thing.  You build them, you nuke some tank lines.  They do also have some fringe potential against carriers hitting them with lockdown.

---

F-tier In the end my F-tier ended up being the same as Artosis, I feel least confident about these units and the ones in E-tier, so I may just be trusting his judgment here.

Devourer, Scout, Broodling

Devourer: they can have some fringe uses as an anti-corsair or anti carrier unit.  But not on their own, they apply a debuff but deal basically no damage themselves, and then rely on other units to clean up.  They do pop up in pro games very occasionally, but man they are pretty underwhelming.

Scout: I think I've maybe seen these in a pro game once?  They are fine air-to-air against one big target like a carrier, and they have a ground attack (even if their ground attack is terrible).  But like...yeah, terrans don't build any anti-air early on against protoss, so sometimes they can be caught off-guard occasionally by a scout.  But..still it's easy to make fun of the scout, cause they're basically a bad wraith.  4 range to Wraith's 5 range.  No cloak.  They move much slower (unless you get an upgrade, then they match the wraith's movement).  They cost 60% more, but deal the same ground damage and 40% more air damage.  Their one big win is having roughly double the health of a Wraith.  But man, "bad wraith" is not a great selling point.

Broodling: Actually I will deviate from Artosis on this one point--Broodlings can cause siege tanks to deal splash damage to each other, so I don't think they belong in FF tier.

---

FF-tier

Inested Terran

Infested Terran...searching for any pro games that actually use these, the two that I could find were literally on a map with a neutral command center in the middle of the map to be infested.  (To be fair, they do seem like decent units against a protoss who's making zealots and high templar, but yeah, normally you could only even theoretically get these against terran, and you'd never be able to protect the building).
« Last Edit: June 21, 2021, 07:36:03 PM by metroid composite »

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #834 on: June 21, 2021, 07:33:11 PM »
OK, reviewing this...

Surprisingly when I made a youtube comment on his video with some (not all) of these changes, I got some replies.

Let's go over some.

Reavers moved to A-tier.  So...I initially put them in B-tier thinking of PvT and PvZ, but they do actually just kind-of break PvP.  And there is a difference between being usable in a mirror matchup (like wraiths) and being so good that the matchup warps around you.  And they are still solid, if not seen every game vs T and vs Z, you can focus your build around them against Z.  They also just...shape every matchup in some way--making Terran never build marines, for example.  This is the comment I got that I think is pretty reasonable.

I got another comment who thought Corsairs were inherently not a great unit and deserved D or E tier (lol no).  Hydras were good and deserved B-tier (they deal explosive damage, which means half damage to zerglings, mutalisks, marines, and medics, so the four most important units in two matchups.  And part of the reason hydras are built agianst P is to deal with all the corsairs--zerg prior to the corsair meta shift didn't always make hydra.  The argument for Hydras in B would be that they're okay against Terran mass goliath builds, which was a build that got popular at pro levels for a bit, and technically makes them ok in two matchups).  Final claim was Science Vessels shouldn't be in S tier (Eh.  They are like SS+ tier in TvZ, and Aish tier in TvP.  Average of SS+ and A is S, but it is pretty fair to point out that they're not great TvT--weighing TvT more does move them down).

And finally didn't like marines and medics on the same tier, which...is fair?  Marines matter at very least in both TvP and TvZ, and some TvT cheese, you can make them for rushes just because you're forced to build a barracks and they're the only thing that makes out of a barracks.  You definitely use them for defence against protoss (bunkers are pretty reliably made TvP these days).  A unit that's the build around unit in one matchup, but consistently made in some quantity in other matchups might be a B-tier unit.  I think that's fair.  Makes the list look like this:


S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel

A: Vulture, Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Marine, Dropship, SCV, Observer

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Queen, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran

Okay, I'd like to even out the size of tiers a bit.

Stuff I feel could move around...

Vulture can make a claim at S.  Not built that much against zerg, in TvT it stops getting built late, those are the things holding me back on that.  Uniquely good against protoss because concussive damage deals full damage to shields, but like, if you asked protoss for one unit they wanted to delete out of terran, it would probably still be siege tank.  But...Vultures do really stand out for what they do.

SCV makes a pretty good claim at A.  Basically always brought with tank pushes to repair and build turrets mid map (more than Goliaths).  Pretty key for scouting.  Proxies are a thing.  Defending against rushes are a thing.  Yeah, I'm convinced.

That still leaves 8 units in B-tier, and 5 units in C-tier.  Best candidates for moving down a tier are like...dropship, marine, observer.  Eh, think it's marine still, you can definitely play mech TvZ.  You really wouldn't want to play without dropships or observers.

D and E tier are a 4-6 split.  Is there a good candidate for moving from E to D?  I'm...going to trust Artosis' original placement here and move Queen back to D tier.  I think they're a little worse against Terran than Ultras, but cleanly better than guardians.  Queens win the game in the right scenario.  Guardians...are just a bit of harassment.

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel, Vulture

A: Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver, SCV

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Dropship, Observer

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Marine

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Dark Archon, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran

That balances it out to 7 units in each of the top 3 tiers, 6 in C tier, 5 in D and E tier, and F and FF are just special.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #835 on: June 22, 2021, 08:31:29 PM »
Okay so some unit stratification.

Would zerg trade Zergling for any unit in S tier?  No, absolutely not, they need a mineral dump.  Only mineral dump option is vultures, but zerg wouldn't make that trade.  Zergling might actually be just a tier above.

Would zerg trade Mutalisk for any of the units in S tier?  Maybe.  Picking up Siege Tank or Vulture is tempting, and either one would basically make them win the protoss matchup.  This implies terran gets mutas, though, and Zerg probably just loses to terran mutas.  Picking up High Templar might be the better choice; HT aren't great against mutas, but at least they hit them, and this would also imply protoss would not have high templar, so maybe zerg just wins that matchup now, and having HTs against Terran would be pretty nice.  Science Vessels are also a trade worth thinking about, irradiate would be the best answer to Terran mutas, and Terran would lose their whole lategame.  And EMP might help more against protoss than mutas do.

Would zerg trade Defiler for an S tier unit?  Probably vultures assuming vultures could still be built early on.  Vultures stop zealots.  Vultures stop medic/marines.  Mines can even stop reaver drops.  These are the things currently used against zerg.  The question is whether zerg without defiler would maybe struggle against something else (maybe carriers and battlecruisers?) but I think with vultures you just kill them before any of that matters.

Would protoss trade High Templar for an S-tier unit?  Siege Tanks, easily, that's just an upgrade.  Maybe Vultures.  This would mean Terran not having Vultures, and protoss would take that trade.  There's definitely a concern about dying to a hydra bust without high templar, but if toss can get vulture production going, vultures can do straight up fights with hydras better than dragoons can, hydras are not great against mines.  Zerglings, sure; cripples zerg, probably helps about as much as high templar against terran.  I don't think they can justify Mutas.  Defilers?  Yeah, actually, they'd trade High Templar for Defilers.  Zealot Dark Swarm deals with mass hydra well enough, and would be nasty against terran.

Would Terran trade siege tank for anything?  No.  Well...Zergling.

Would Terran trade vulture for anything?  (Other than Zergling).  Hmm...if they trade for mutas they beat zerg, but lose to protoss.  If they trade for defilers they still lose to zerg cause vultures beat them up.  Don't think they're in the market for high templar.

Would terran trade science vessel for anything?  So far not many people have wanted to trade for SV, cause it won't help them against terran.  But...can't safely trade SVs with high templar--don't think terran could win against zerg with HTs instead of Vessels.  And...honestly not sure terran would win against protoss either with HTs instead of Vessels--no way to stop arbiter recalls.  Don't think they can beat zerg if they trade for defilers, defilers would be ok against toss, but not sure they'd be better than vessels.  Trading for mutas...well I was about to say that Zerg can't stop mutas, but they sure can if they have vessels.  And then terran wouldn't have vessels for the lategame, and zerg would (irradiate on a medic in the middle of an MM clump sounds pretty good.  D-matrix on zerglings is definitely pretty good).  So while not a lot of other races are looking to trade for vessels, Terran's not looking to trade it away either.  (Zergling is probably still a good trade, though).

---

Biggest surprise is how solidly Vulture is in S tier when I was wavering on it.  Loads of people interested in trading for it.

I'm going to go through these one by one, but I can already see a few units that are likely to move around (Dark Archons back to D tier, for example).

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #836 on: June 23, 2021, 08:40:05 AM »
A tier...

Man, this has probe, SCV, and Overlord.  Units that aren't very simple to think about in trading terms.

Are there any races that would want to trade an S-tier unit for any of these A-tier units?  Maybe Zerg would be interested in trading Defiler for Reaver?   Only if they got Reaver early, though, so they could push a midgame advantage, not if it was hive tech; if it's hive tech they stick with defiler 100%.  Nobody's trading for Zealot or Dragoon.  Are there any S-tier units that would want to trade with Scourge?  Terran could think about trading Science Vessel for Scourge or Reaver.  I think either of these changes make them lose to zerg due to not having vessels, but scourge would be maybe a bit better at answering arbiters than vessels are, and maybe a bit better against carriers, and if terran could mix in some reavers with their siege tank lines that would make them much harder for P to break with gateway units (although taking reaver and not scourge would make them extra vulnerable to arbiters and carriers since Vessels at least do something against those).  That said, this is only a consideration cause Vessels do nothing against terran mech units, so they wouldn't really get punished for this trade.

Nope, I think nothing here is pushing S-tier.

Is protoss looking to trade any of their units for scourge?  Not zealots or dragoons for sure.  Maybe they'd be interested in scourge over reavers, reavers are kind-of an optional build path for them, and being able to say a hard no to drops and take out things like vessels when they have arbiters is kinda interesting.  Might open up like...bio against them, though, so maybe not.

Is Zerg willing to part with scourge for any of these units?  Maybe Reavers.  I honestly don't know what that would do to the TvZ matchup--Vessels would become immortal, but reavers would be a hard no to marine/medic.  Might make them win ZvP though.  They could also think about trading scourge for Zealots--I think that makes them win ZvP cause P wouldn't have zealots, but makes them lose ZvT cause they don't have scourge for vessels.  Trading scourge for dragoons would be similar--goons are way better than hydras, so they'd win vs protoss, but goons won't do great against terran bio, so they'd end up facing terran without scourge.

---

Ok B-tier units.

Let's start with something real quick; I'm going to move dropship down to C, and marine to B.  So B and C look like this at the moment:

B: Lurker, Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Dropship

Reason being, if you told a terran to play without dropships, outside of TvT they'd manage.  If you told them to play without marines...they die to the first zealot coming across the map, they die to anything cheesy in TvT, they can't make bunkers which have increased in relevance a lot.  Just...yeah, I think they would feel that loss more.

Alright, so B tier units that make sense to trade...Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver.

Is zerg interested in trading scourge for anything here?  Zerg would be in the market for Medic out of C-tier, but that's very meta so let's ignore that.  Maybe Arbiter is a little spicy? But spicy enough to trade scourge for?  I don't think so right?  They need scourge against terran, and sniping observers with scourge is definitely a strategy agaist protoss.

Is protoss willing to trade anything?  I don't think they even consider trading Zealot, as its their only mineral dump, and they aren't looking to replace it with Marine as a mineral dump.  Reaver...nah.  So...I guess does protoss want to trade Dragoon for Goliath, Lurker or Marine?  Hard no to Goliath and Marine.  Lurker...ehh...they would not be able to beat Terran at all with Lurkers, but lurkers are the main reason they build dragoons PvZ, and maybe lurkers would be nice as an anti-zergling tech.  But there's a serious problem with this plan, which is then Zerg beats them up with dragoons instead of hydras, and if they ever lose all their corsairs lategame they need to be terrified of a sudden muta switch.

OK, between the B-tier units...

Would Zerg trade lurker for any of these?  Marine is a funny option, that would be chaos.  Terran needs to defend a marine+ling rush from zerg using mech, but gets to have lurkers later to fend off zerglings.  Protoss...marines have higher DPS for the cost than hydras, so they're better against stuff that doesn't shoot back like corsairs and forges used for wallins.  If they build out of the spawning pool that's pretty nice too, cause it deals with the one zealot standing behind the mineral line; forces them to come out and fight zerglings.  I guess arbiter sounds pretty spicy, but they'd be trading one unit that's good against terran for a different unit that's good against terran.  Maybe scourge+arbiter makes the cloak part of arbiter a problem for protoss?

Skipping over shuttle (can only really talk meaningfully about trading dropships between the three, or look at it in terms of telling a race to pick a unit not to build).

Would Terran trade Goliath for anything here?  Eh, it's their anti-air for mech builds, right?  If they trade Gols what do they do against carriers?  I guess there's some idea to rely on wraiths against carriers, and maybe grab arbiter here.  But if protoss knows your anti-air is going to be wraiths, you will get slaughtered by corsairs.  BCs can beat corsairs, though, so maybe that?

Dark Templar...I mean, trading that for lurker would help them in PvZ maybe, but hurt them in PvT.  Trading for marines is funny, cause they can probably just cheese a Terran without marines.  Assuming the terran gets some kind of replacement, like maybe Firebats no longer require gas or an academy so there's no easy cheese option...marines would still be a little interesting to deny overlord scouting to a zerg.  Way less of an investment than a dragoon.  There's a funny idea of bringing two zealots and a marine, and parking all of them behind the mineral line using the zealots as the wallin.  Trading DTs for Goliaths...I mean, basically allows them to go Carriers vs T.  Probably hurts them vs Z.  Yeah, a lot of unclear mixed results here.

Arbiter...no, protoss wouldn't trade Arbiter with any of this.  Trading Arbiters for Goliaths is a little tempting, the logic being that maybe you can just go carriers.  The problem is the Terran can just go battlecruisers, and the thing that makes BCs unable to fight carriers is Stasis locking out half of the BCs--if Stasis instead locks out half of the carriers, doesn't Terran just win that?  Trading for lurkers...makes the zerg midgame easier to deal with, but at the expense of the Terran matchup.  (Some concern about Zerg doing nasty stuff with lategame arbiters, so maybe it doesn't even help the zerg matchup).  Trading with marines?  Only if it lets them reliably cheese in the earlygame.  Ignoring the fuzzy "can you just kill a race if you trade away their first tier unit" question, trading for marines would improve their vs Z matchup.  So okay, yeah, maybe marines.  Looks like Marines and Arbiters might be on the strong end of B-tier.

Would Terran trade marine with anything here?  Arbiter's maybe a little interesting, assuming no marine doesn't just make them lose to cheese vs P.  They can go mech against Zerg, so they aren't completely forefitting that matchup.  Maybe also DT--getting rid of that would make the protoss matchup way more comfortable, and maybe there's some kind of Valkyrie DT build against zerg.

So...I think most of these are okay, but interest in trading for the Lurker is actually kinda low.  Are any of the weird options like Observer, Shuttle, worth trading for Lurker?  Observer would be funny, cause toss would not need detection vs Zerg, and would probably win the matchup.  Would just lose against terran, though.  Shuttle...obviously also bad against Terran, and limits their options against zerg.

Would Zerg trade lurker for any of the C-tier options?  Medic, but that's a degenerate answer.  If we assume medic only works on the two lowest tier units like zerglings and hydras then probably not.  Corsair...maybe, actually, turn protoss into a free win, and they would probably actually build corsairs against Terran.  Corsairs are immune to irradiate, Science Vessels are large with 1 armour, so they take basically full damage from sairs.  They wouldn't trade for archons.  Archons would be okay against zealots, but so are lurkers.  And they are a lot worse against terran bio.  They can't be irradiated, but they can be EMP'd so it's not like you're excited about them as some kind of Vessel counter.  So...technically two yesses from zerg, but they are both very meta (medic getting to heal all the biological zerg units.  Corsairs being of interest just because of being immune to irradiate; if corsairs become biological in the trade then no, that's awful vs vessels).  I think Archon might be lower than C-tier, though.  Okay, so back to medic, let's say we go with the restriction of only healing the two lowest tier units, hydras and zerglings.  Taking away medic from terran still puts terran on mech, which means you can go hydra medic.  That might actually be good.  Losing a later game option in lurkers is unfortunate, but hydra/medic might make for even stronger hydra busts.

OK, unexpected, but Lurker to C tier.

---

B: Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Archon, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

---

Hm, Drone might be a little out of place now.  Not being able to attack or scout with a drone or make buildings to sim city...obviously hurts for defending allins, but probably hurts less than being unable to build Hydras or Lurkers.

Archon was also noted as maybe out of place.  Is there anyone who actually wants to trade for Archon?  Not lurker, not hydra, medic...maybe?  Terran's a bit desperate for a melee unit.  Archons are a fat meatshield they could put in front of tanks who can eat a mine hit and still be ok, and AoE some melee units coming in.  But...that is the gas of three siege tanks, even if you are massing siege tanks that's kind-of a tough sell.  It's also a bit meta, cause Terran has Science Vessels, so they don't need to worry about Archons being blank in one matchup.  Archons to D.

Hydra...would zerg trade Hydra for Corsair?  I guess yeah, if corsairs are still mechanical, nice to have vs T where they weren't using hydras anyway, and taking corsair away from P just means they win.

I guess...here's the real test, would Protoss trade Corsair for anything here?  Not any of the zerg units that's for sure--they'd like to get rid of Hydras, but not at the cost of corsairs.  Getting rid of Lurkers is not worth corsairs to them.  But maybe Medic is a little bit interesting.  Zealot Medic is genuinely pretty scary (and they're actually biological, so I've seen that in game).  If the rule on medics is that they heal the two lowest tier units, that would mean Zealots and dragoons.  So...taking medic they would just roll Terran.  Is the zerg matchup doable?  They basically need to break or massively threaten zerg before mutas, but...Zealot Medic might be able to do that?  So maybe there's one trade Protos might be willing to make?

Is anyone in B-tier looking to trade for Corsair?  I don't think so at this point.  Guess Corsair can stay in C-tier.

---

C: Corsair, Medic, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen, Archon, Dark Archon

---

Alright, is anyone in D willing to trade for Archon?  Yes, absolutely, Terran would trade Firebat in a heartbeat.

Is anyone looking to trade for Wraith?  Protoss might trade Archon.  Just having a unit that shoots down and is better than Scout.

Is anyone looking to trade for carrier?  Zerg would consider trading Ultralisk, unless carriers become biological and thus vulnerable to irradiate, then probably not.  Terran might trade Wraith or Firebat just to not need to worry about playing against Carrier.

Is anyone looking to trade for ultralisk?  Yeah, it's a melee unit, Terran would trade Wraith or Firebat probably.

Is anyone willing to trade for queen?  Maybe Protoss trades Archon--observers struggle to keep vision, but Parasite can, and just a unit that can kill tanks for free is pretty good.

Is anyone willing to trade for Firebat?  Ehh...man, firebats are pretty bad, that's a tough sell, but it's an earlygame unit, maybe protoss is willing to part with Archon so that they can do some Zealot Firebat rush against zerg.  As long as the Zealots body block for the firebats, that can kill like...unlimited zerglings.

Is anyone willing to trade for Dark Archon?  Zerg might be.  Maelstrom is a middle finger to terran bio.  Feedback looks interesting against vessels--range 10, so theoretically should beat EMP.  Maelstrom might even be worth considering against zealot heavy protoss builds, but mostly a tech against terran.  Trading queen or ultra.  Terran might be interested too--might be willing to sac Wraith or Firebat.  Maelstrom might help against Zealots, honestly, and has potential against zerg.

Are there any D-tier units that should move up?  Any C-tier units that would trade with D-tier units?  Maybe Lurker could think about trading with Dark Archon, but that's really meta (Zerg uses Dark Archon way better than Toss does).  If Terran felt okay about mech zerg every game, they could trade Medics for Carriers, mostly to remove Carrier as a protoss option.  I think that might hurt T against Zerg more than it hurts P against Terran, though.

OK, so D-tier is honestly looking ok.

---

Full list at the moment:

S: Zergling, Mutalisk, Defiler, High Templar, Siege Tank, Science Vessel, Vulture

A: Probe, Overlord, Dragoon, Zealot, Scourge, Reaver, SCV

B: Shuttle, Goliath, Dark Templar, Arbiter, Observer, Marine

C: Corsair, Medic, Hydra, Drone, Dropship, Lurker

D: Firebat, Wraith, Carrier, Ultralisk, Queen, Archon, Dark Archon

E: Guardian, Valkyrie, Battlecruiser, Ghost

F: Devourer, Scout, Broodling

FF: Infested Terran

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #837 on: June 23, 2021, 06:14:24 PM »
I'll just add that there was an ASL match a month or two ago where in PvZ the Protoss player unironically built a Scout first (before the usual Corsairs to follow it up).  I'm not 100% sure what mindhack was going on here, but it was used for initial worker harass into DTs, similar to the more famous Corsair / DT combo.  Basically the 'toss player felt that being able to annoy workers was worth the loss in speed / minerals vs. a Corsair, and he threw the Z player sufficiently off their game that a follow up Dropship w/ DTs finished the game.  The Z player chose to build a Spore Colony at their natural to deal with flyer harass rather than a Spire + Scourge, which meant moving their overlords over to the nat expand (which was a bit farther away than on most maps, I want to say), which meant not having Overlords for DT defense at their main for too long.  I think the Z player had gone Hydras to explain where the gas went rather than Scourge?  And that they didn't Spore their main because they thought Hydras would suffice for scaring off the Scout?  Now I'm curious to go dig that game up...

Edit: Also will endorse moving Marine from C->B, Marines are still handy for the Terran not dying in TvP before a Factory army can come up.  I want to say that there was another ASL game where the Protoss player went for Carriers (to hose heavy-Siege Tank armies), the T player scouted this but the P player didn't seem to realize their cunning plan was known, and the T player dropped like 7 rax and went Marine / Medic and won easily.  That was a weird case of course, but bio can get at least SOME work done in that matchup.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2021, 06:31:04 PM by SnowFire »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #838 on: June 24, 2021, 03:43:03 PM »
I did see the scout game.  From what Tastetosis were saying it was the first time they had seen a scout on a non-island map since they returned to casting BW.  Think it was round of 16, most recent season, and the Zerg was Queen (the previous season's ASL champion).  (There was also a scout built on Inner Coven, but that's a pseudo island map.  Scout's air to air is okay).  F-tier units do come up occasionally, pretty sure I've also seen devourers.

I'm not familiar with the game where marine/medic were built against carrier.  Know what season/round that was built in?

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #839 on: June 25, 2021, 08:59:54 AM »
So someone suggested to me that Zealots might be S tier.  With Zerglings in an SS tier, I think this could make sense.

Trading Vultures for Zealots was the interesting one.  I had thought about that before, and concluded "Toss would beat zerg with Corsair Vulture, and gain tons of map control against terran".   The interesting X factor here is that Terran would also beat Zerg, perhaps even more than toss would.  Vultures aren't a big deal against zerg, zealots are, and zealots would make great meatshields for bio.

As for who would win between toss and terran if they swap vultures and zealots, I'm starting to think that's a bit more ambiguous.  Tank Zealot is very immobile compared to goon vulture, but Vulture Goon can't actually fight siege tanks with zealots in front; like they will just lose.

Like...Vulture is probably still looking a bit stronger here, but it's close.

The other thing I've been trying to work out is what exactly happens if Terran trades tanks for zealots.  Trading tanks is pretty sacriligeous but...I think the zerg matchup for sure gets better for T.  Bio with zealots in front just...should beat zerg, and terran can play without tanks vs zerg. 

TvP would be a clusterfuck.  Like Zealots can counter siege tanks in the open, but still want some backup, and neither marines nor goliaths are as good as dragoons would be paired with zealots.  Vultures still ensure total map control.  What even would be Terran's unit composition here?  Zealot Vulture Wraith using wraiths to snipe observers and cloak?  Would corsairs become a problem?  Would Goliaths become the answer to corsairs?  I think Protoss lategame is basically unbeatable (Siege Tank Arbiter, maybe with carriers).  But can they get there?  They have no mineral sink other than cannons, but that does fit the game plan.  Terran options for breaking a base with siege tanks and cannons would be like...send zealots at it, or drop zealots out of dropships.  Reavers would also become a problem.  Mines can be placed in common Reaver drop locations, but no tanks to fight reavers is a huge problem, and zealots are no compensation.  Mmm...think Terran probably loses this despite the lack of mineral dump.

PvZ...Protoss would lose zealots, which is a huge loss, and gain Siege Tanks, which...aren't necessarily better than Reavers vs Zerg.  Protoss gets worse against mutas cause zealots can at least threaten to kill before mutas, and I'm not even convinced they get better against hydra busts.  Obviously they pick up a new tool in Siege Tanks, which might be a better option than high  templar, but they also lose the ability to make zealots, which were often made in large numbers during hydra busts.

Surprisngly enough, trading Tank for Zealot kinda makes zealot look like the better unit, at least in two of the matchups.  Third one maybe unwinnable.

Other trades...Zerg isn't willing to trade mutas for Zealots, cause they'd just lose to protoss mutas.  But Defilers?  Zerg might trade Defilers for Zealots.  Protoss match becomes way easier for zerg.  Terran match...Zealots can fill a similar role to ultras, not amazing units, but soak a lot of hits.  But do so before hive tech at no gas cost.  Is that enough to make up for the lack of defilers in the lategame?  Honestly, it might be.  Zerg can make queens as their fallback spellcaster, and it should be ok vs terran ground.  The PvT match...pure dragoon is okay for a while vs T (your first control group or two is supposed to be dragoons) but the lack of zealots will for sure hurt.  Dark Swarm will help, though.  Not great vs tanks cause it doesn't stop everything, but probably still good enough to be worth building.  Really nice in a recall too, since vultures and unsieged tanks can't do anything against a dark swarm.

Yeah, definitely some unclear ambiguity, not really obvious if these trades are good, which might mean zealot belongs on this tier.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #840 on: June 25, 2021, 09:50:44 PM »
OK, on the PvT matchup for swapping Zealot and Tank...I think I overlooked something here--Terran just won't have a very good counter to dragoons.  Zealots can be kited, vultures struggle to finish off dragoons due to concussive damage, other terran options like wraiths and goliaths are going to be fairly cost-inefficient.  I was focusing a bit too much on "what can protoss do with siege tanks?" and not enough on "what if protoss just ignores their new tech tree and just makes dragoons?"

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #841 on: November 09, 2021, 04:58:19 AM »
So tasteless posted his version of tier list:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSoYU837upM

Some funny stuff for sure here.  (He initially had vultures a tier above siege tanks, which is a very protoss point of view).

But the interesting thing that this is getting me to think about is...

Scourge vs Goliaths:

So...these aren't identical, but they do fill some somewhat parallel roles.

ZvZ: If one player has scourge swapped with goliaths...well goliaths are interesting.  Goliaths, once they get the charon boosters upgrade, are a lot better against mutalisks, cause they have 8 range, they can really punish mutalisks that fly back and forth.  They also have 1 armour, which is pretty good against mutalisk glaives (for the same reason that carapace upgrades are good against muta glaives).  They are also better than hydras against the one ground unit used in this matchup (zerglings; they deal full damage to them, while hydras deal half damage to zerglings, and again 1 armour, pretty nice against zerglings in particular).  Worse against other zerg ground units, but what's the opponent gonna do, build hydras?  LOL, yeah, easy to shred with lings and mutas.

One concern I had was movement speed, but goliaths are better than I thought; faster than unupgraded hydras, faster than unstimmed marines.  A little slower than dragoons.  If there's a reason why a scourge player would be better than a goliath player in this matchup, this is probably the big one--just map control and mobility.  But I feel like the goliath player would actually come out ahead.  Diving on goliaths with mutas is never free, but when the opponent also has mutas it's really not free, and basically requires you to commit.

Maybe slight lean goliaths here.

ZvT: Here the trade looks pretty miserable.  Goliaths are a poor substitute for scourge at taking out science vessels.  If the terran also picks up scourge, I think that would have implications in the matchup too--could really punish mutas for diving deep against turrets.  And there's probably some really nasty rushes where the terran would scourge a couple overlords just to supply block them right as the terran moves out.

Scourge look more valuable.

TvP: So there's ups and downs here.  The upside is that scourge just completely clamp down on arbiters.  Protoss will never get a recall off against a teran with scourge, and keeping arbiters alive becomes way harder.  Arbiters probably just disappear from the matchup.

But the downside is carriers.  Granted, scourge can kill a carrier.  In fact, carriers in small numbers, scourge probably handle that better than goliaths do.  Carriers can use cliffs to run from goliaths.  The problem comes from corsairs.  If you get enough corsairs, zero scourge will ever connect with a carrier.  And then you're stuck on like...marines?  Valkyries?  I believe on paper Valkyries do counter corsairs due to having 2 defence, but man, I don't think they beat them all that hard.

But can a protoss actually stay alive that long?  Long enough to get a critical mass of corsairs and carriers?  Ehh...not sure.  If it's just scourge against low numbers of carriers or corsairs, scourge will do fine.  But if protoss can turtle enough to get the good army out, might be goliaths are better.

TvT: My immediate kneejerk is that scourge are better here.  A relatively small number of patrolling scourge can be a huge problem for dropships.  Scourge are faster than dropships.

Scourge are not faster than wraiths, so maybe wraiths become a problem...but...ehhh, I doubt it.  For one thing, I don't think wraiths moving shot all that well, so while they could run from scourge, they wouldn't actually kill them.  For another thing, terran has a lot of other things that are pretty good against wraiths like missile turrets and valkyries, so there's ways to shoo away wraiths even if the opponent just constantly keeps moving to avoid scourge.

And in the end, I think one side making it almost impossible for the other side to use dropships is just...such a symmetry breaker in TvT.

ZvP: So...immediately I'm struck by how goliaths are better than hydras at hitting corsairs, and also better at punishing shuttles that are holding reavers.  They also technically survive a storm from high templar, and are...maybe a little better against Zealots, not sure.  (They're definitely better against zerglings, but protoss units are weird because protoss shields are weird).  Goliaths are obviously worse than hydras against dragoons, of course, so you wouldn't want a strictly goliath army.

Scourge, so there's a couple places they're good.

One is a mutalisk all in, where you build an unexpected number of mutas and scourge, and use the combination of both to kill the corsairs and then win because you have mutas and the protoss doesn't have corsairs.

One is as a zoning tool, to harass with mutas while placing scourge in between the corsairs and the mutas, ready to punish corsairs if they fly past.  That strategy is probably dead--and while goliaths could do this, honestly speed hydras are probably better cause they move faster, but both are bad cause neither fly.

One is as part of a lurker contain, to hit any observer that gets too close with a scourge.  Goliaths can zone out observers pretty well, but...not actually that well.  Six shots to kill an observer.  Observer sight even without upgrades is longer than goliath range.  And also, protoss to beat lurker contains makes dragoons, which happen to be excellent into Goliaths--like I don't think you want to stick the goliaths in front of the lurkers, dragoons will take free shots.

And then there's the mystery option, which is what arbiters do to zerg when zerg litreally can't stop them.  And like...yeah, probably fuck them up real bad TBH.

So...scourge seem better here.

---

Conclusions

Seems pretty close overall, goliaths better in a couple matchups, scourge better in a couple matchups, which probably mean these two belong on the same tier?   Which would be around B-tier on Artosis and Tasteless lists.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #842 on: November 10, 2021, 01:53:30 AM »
Welp, did a little unit testing, and seems like I was misled to when I was being taught starcraft back in 2006 or whatever.

Valkyries are not cost effective against corsairs.  At least not if the two of them just A-move into each other.  (3 corsairs beat 2 valkyries.  6 corsairs beat 4 valkyries).  Admitedly I'm not testing on remastered, but I don't think I should be hitting the sprite limit at 4 vaklyries with almost nothing else on the map.

The argument for valkyries beating corsairs went as follows: valkyries have 2 armour, and corsairs attack quickly with 5 attack, so that gets reduced to 3 attack. 

And that's...not wrong, but Valkyries also cost 50% more, for a very small bump in damage (15 dps -> 18 dps), and a very small bump in HP (180 vs 200), so literally that 2 defence needs to do basically all the heavy lifting in justifying the 50% price hike.

Oh also, corsairs are medium, so they take 75% damage from valkyrie shots (to their hull, protoss shields take full damage from everything) and also they have 1 defence of their own (valkyries do 6 damage per hit, so they're equally kinda vulnerable to defence).  So like...their hull damage is getting around the same reduction as the valkyrie hull damage.  Only their shields get melted.

I believe valkyries have larger AoE splash than corsairs, but at least the units attack moving towards each other that didn't matter enough.

So uh, yeah, building valkyries to counter corsair/carrier looking even less viable as a counter.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #843 on: November 11, 2021, 03:09:57 AM »
May as well compare the third actually good anti air unit to goliaths/scourge, namely the corsair.

Swapping corsair and scourge...

ZvZ -- the Zerg with corsairs wins.

ZvP -- now protoss don't have corsairs, and against mutas, scourge are a poor substitute.

TvP -- Scourge have got to be at least a little better.  Not a ton of things to scourge down admitedly, but maybe a few science vessels and dropships.  Relatively minor difference, though.

PvP -- Scourge wins--corsairs aren't made in PvP, but observers and shuttles are, and scourge are good against them.

ZvT -- So...my assumption is that if you have an overall weakness shared by every unit you have, that any units you gain are going to share that weakness, namely corsairs as zerg units would be biological, so you couldn't just make a control group of 12 of them and fly around immune to irradiate, D-webbing marines while you killed all the science vessels.  With that assumption in place, yeah, Scourge are better.  If they get to be the one zerg unit immune to irradiate...hmm...corsairs might be better; ridiculous zoning tool against vessels if nothing else.

So scourge are ahead 3 matchups to 2, although TvP the impact is going to be really minor, and the ZvT matchup being scourge favoured relies on zerg corsairs being biological.

swapping goliaths and corsairs

TvT: This isn't super straightforward, but I've got to feel the player with Goliaths is going to beat the player with Corsairs, cause Goliaths can kill Corsairs.  But it's not super simple.  Corsairs are faster than dropships and can chase them down and kill them, that's a big deal.  Corsairs can disruption web tanks, that's a big deal too.  Corsairs are better at killing wraiths, although wraiths deal more damage back to corsairs than they do back to Goliaths.  But even with all these advantages, I think the straightforward "Goliaths kill Corsairs" is the right way to think about this.  Goliaths are also able to deal damage to tanks and vultures, which is not nothing.  Goliaths are better against battlecruisers, which sometimes come up in TvT.

TvP: Goliaths win, or rather the lack of goliaths for terran is crippling (not that protoss will actually make goliaths).  Corsairs actually get countered by carriers, so that's not good.

ZvP: Corsairs have got to be more important here.  As terrans will tell you, Goliaths can still get overwhelmed by a muta allin.  And Goliaths don't serve much of a purpose against anything besides mutas.

PvP: I really don't think it matters.  Maybe you would mix in one or two goliaths in your dragoon army for the longer range to zone out shuttles?  I guess that's more than Corsairs have going for them in this matchup, but not by much.  And you'd have to separately get the upgrade for dragoon range and goliath range so even that seems a bit suspect.  Matchup just seems like a wash.

ZvT: Uh, yeah, Terran will take Corsairs.  Terran rarely builds goliaths against zerg, and would make corsairs like...every game.  Corsair Vulture shreds everything until lurkers show up, can't even get detection for spider mines.

So...that's a 2-2, another very close comparison.

Yeah, ok, maybe all three of corsairs/scourge/goliath belong on the same tier.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #844 on: November 11, 2021, 04:08:52 AM »
A few fun miscellaneous calculations:

Even if corsairs didn't have splash damage, they would still be (fractionally) cost effective against scouts.

Scouts are cost effective against wraiths (ignoring all the stuff about wraiths cloaking and having higher range and faster movement and better ground damage).

Mutalisks are complicated cause of glaive bounces.  (Look pretty close to even with scouts on paper, but I didn't go in-depth on the implications of glaive bounces; scouts might be ahead theoretically, not that you'll ever see that matchup).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #845 on: November 11, 2021, 06:21:23 AM »
Ok, let's do marine clones.

Some easy ones:

swapping marine with dragoon:

TvT: dragoon wins.

PvT: dragoon wins

PvZ: Kinda close, not sure.  Potential for some strong rushes, marines are better than dragoons against hydras on paper, marines are better than dragoons against mutas.  Dragoons weren't really used for either of those, though, and I don't know if marines are enough better to matter.  Buuuut lurkers sound like actually a problem; dragoons were the way to deal with those.  Eh, file this under tossup for the moment.

TvZ: marines win.

PvP: dragoons win.

Pretty clear 3-1 (dragoons expected to be better; no surprise there).

swapping hydralisk with dragoon

ZvZ: changes nothing

ZvT: Dragoons probably win.  Some interesting rush/harassment builds open up.  1 extra range and all that.

ZvP: Complicated.  Like...hydras are a semi rock-paper-scissors counter to dragoons, so maybe that stops zerg from just massing goons, but goons are better against reavers, better against storm, worse against corsairs so that's a concern.  hydras are a lot worse against lurkers and honestly zerglings if the zerglings can reach them.  Likely worse against mutas.  Hydras need a speed upgrade to be faster than zealots, goons don't; a single goon microed can be a headache for zealots super early.  Call this a tossup, not sure.

PvP: I think Dragoons win any macro game, cause dragoon reaver beats hydra reaver.  Some potential for earlygame hydra busts, granted.

PvT: Dragoons win.

So yeah, 3-1-0 on this one.

swapping goliath with dragoon

PvT: So...a little complicated.  If protoss gets to carriers, it's a problem for the terran.  I think terran flattens them before this happens, though.  No goon pressure.  Goons beat goliaths, vultures beat zealots, so the mobile ground army of terran just smashes the one of protoss.  Goliaths are also a lot worse against siege tanks than goons (slightly better against vultures, at least).  Think this goes to dragoons?

PvP: Dragoons win

PvZ: Mmm...so...dragoons are better against hydras, goliaths are better against zerglings, dragoons are better against lurkers, goliaths are better against mutas.  Eh, no dragoons win.  Protoss doesn't have trouble making zerg switch off of zerglings or mutas, and isn't going to use goliaths to achieve that goal anyway.

ZvT: Well...the main place I could see dragoons being used are against lurkers (instead of using tanks) and they'd presumably build out of barracks and not require a factory with an addon, and they'd benefit from E-bay upgrades presumably, and not be so vulnerable to mutas, so uh yeah, all of that sounds like incentive enough to build them over tanks.  Also, way better than marines against ultralisks.  Yeah, I think this is a comfy dragoon win.

TvT: Probably another dragoon win.  Maybe they're a little worse against vultures and dropships, but better against tanks and goliaths, and the terran with dragoons can put on a lot of pressure early on.  I guess the one complication would be that they are barracks units, so don't share upgrades with tanks and vultures.  But the upside of your barracks being more than a tech stepping stone and actually producing units you want in the matchup should counteract that--basically a free production building at the start of the game, and one that makes units that counter vultures (whereas normally you need an armory or a machine shop after making a factory to counter vultures).

So that's a 5-0 to dragoons, although a number of these are not complete blowouts.

---

So more or less as expected, dragoons are a tier above the others.

Marines vs Hydras

TvZ: Marines win.  (Hydras are pathetic against zerglings and mutas).

ZvZ: Marines win.  (Ability to kill scouting overlords after spawning pool finishes.  Ability to make non-gas units that help fight mutas).

TvP: I'm...not sure.  The initial zealot walk across the map will do better against a slow hydra than two marines.  But hydras would be a barracks unit that would remain relevant in the matchup for quite a bit longer, so there's maybe a strong early rush Terran would pick up.  Don't think it matters in a longer macro game, vultures are a lot better than hydras (like...literally same damage, same HP, same size category, but on a cheaper unit that can also lay mines and is fast). Answer hazy, maybe very mild lean hydra.

TvT: Ultimately not very important.  Hydras are a little better than marines against vultures and goliaths, so maybe lean hydra, but you're not building the unit long term.

ZvP: So...assuming marines build out of spawning pools, they do a bunch here.  Marine rushes would hit a bit earlier than hydra rushes, and kill buildings a little faster relative to the army cost invested.  Protosses who walk zealots across the map and hide them behind mineral patches, marines can be ready way earlier than hydras if they're a spawning pool unit.  Better at killing corsairs.  But marines are worse if they need to stand and take hits (killing photon cannons or dragoons, for example).  Hydras after speed upgrade can kite zealots, marines can't unless they stim.  And the real killer is that marines are substantially worse against reavers and psi storm.  So...probably overall hydras?

Seems even-ish actually.  2 marine, 1 hydra, 2 where it's not a big deal but very mild lean towards hydra.

Golaith vs Marine

lol, same race.

Guess it's worth noting Goliath is mostly important PvT and TvT, while marine is mostly important ZvT.  Used in the first 5 minutes to guard agaisnt rushes do a few cheese builds in PvT and TvT, but only because it's the only unit available.

Goliath vs Hydra

PvT: Goliath wins (can't stop carriers with hydras, and vultures are better against gateway armies).

TvT: Goliaths better against vultures, dropships, wraiths.  Hydras better against enemy Goliaths, siege tanks.  Also, hydras here would logically require academy (or some kind of "hydra den" equivalent), and Marine would still be the base unit, so the sensible thing would be to rush factory and maybe never build a hydra till you need antiair.  Comfy Goliath I think?

TvZ: Maybe lean hydra?  Pretty soft lean, but it's a barracks unit, and one which is probably a little better than marines against ultras and lurkers.

ZvP: The logical place for goliaths is as a lair tech unit (requires a factory and an armory normally, so it's tier 2 tech).  And...the allin hydra bust doesn't get lair--although...maybe that's not so bad, cause hydras require two expensive upgrades to not suck, and frankly Lair is faster and cheaper, and goliaths are functional against ground without upgrades (nearly as fast as speed hydras, 5 range out of the box).  And...getting a free lair out of the deal seems pretty nice.  Goliaths are worse against cannons, dragoons, probably slightly better against zealots, definitely better against corsairs and observers and shuttles.  Less vulnerable to dying to storm.  Hmm...I was thinking this would be a slam dunk for hydras.  Still think it's a lean hydra--there isn't a really clear counter to dragoon other than zerglings, but large enough dragoon groups would make that impractical.

ZvZ: Goliath.  Better against zerglings, better against mutas, don't even need to give up scourge for it this time, so just a no brainer.

3-2 goliath, but the hydra wins were pretty soft wins, so feels a bit more like 3-1.

---

OK, so, overall this feels like

Dragoon

(tier gap)

Goliath

(tier gap)

Marine, Hydra

(Probably something like A tier Dragoon, B tier Goliath, C tier Marine and Hydra?)

Not quite what I was expecting (thought Marine would be more cleanly in the same tier as goliath, but hydra is looking better than marine against large units, protoss shields, and less vulnerable to AoE like siege tanks, reavers, storm, as well as concussive damage from vultures.  Carves out more wins than I expected).

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #846 on: November 11, 2021, 09:44:30 PM »
So...thinking on it, I think I'm just going to combine medic/marine.  Medics feel more like an upgrade to marines that allow them to actually stim.  And then furthermore I would assume medics would only heal marines even if traded (so I'm not going to complicate things with combos like medic zealot or medic lurker, which are scary combos I've seen in multiplayer games--none of that, even if traded, medics only heal marines).

I...don't actually think this changes very much.  Maybe in the marine trade with hydras specifically for the PvZ matchup this tips things enough more towards marines (now they can stim to properly kite slow zealots, and are less scared of busting through photon cannons.  Concerns about dying to psi storm and reavers are still an issue, though).  Might just have enough pressure, though.  Why would this work for zerg when terran bio doesn't beat protoss for terran?  Getting Zerglings inside their base.  The existence of Mutalisks, and the fact that protoss needs to blind tech corsairs every game.  Both of these make marine busts a lot more scary

So...probably flip that one from advantage hydra to...unsure.

That said, is that enough to bump marine/medic up to goliath tier?  Well...no:

I think I underestimated hydra/vulture pushes TvP.  My initial reaction is "terran wouldn't build hydras cause vultures are basically just generally better against protoss ground armies" which is still largely true.   But hydras can bust down buildings, when normally a few pylons is enough to just stop a roaming vulture army.  Hydra Vulture actually sounds like a nightmare for protoss.  Both good at stripping off the shields of either dragoons or zealots; vultures finish off zealots, hydras finish off dragoons.  And you might be thinking "well can't siege tanks do the role of hydras in that army?" and...yes but with vulnerabilities; siege tanks can be caught unsieged.  Siege tanks are vulnerable to shuttles dropping zealots on them.  A hydra vulture army moving together across the map...doesn't have those vulnerabilities.  It has other vulnerabilities (storm, reavers) so I don't think terran would forever skip siege tanks or anything, but protoss would need to prepare and scout for a new potential rush.

Alright, so at the moment with just the stuff I've been thinking about lately, looks like this:

(A tier?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra

Sort-of feeling weird about Corsair above Marine+Medic, so let's look at that.

Corsair vs Marine+Medic

PvZ: probably Corsairs.  Die to mutas otherwise.

PvP: probably doesn't matter outside of harassing early wallins maybe a marine gets made.

PvT: assuming that there's some kind of replacement so that terran still has a way to stay alive in the first 2 minutes (maybe a no rush 2, or firebat becomes their first unit and costs only minerals) this would be a pretty uneventful swap.  Protoss doesn't want to make marines against terran.  Terran doesn't have much reason to make corsairs against protoss (wraiths are actually slightly faster at killing single shuttles in the event of a reaver drop; Corsairs are just a lot more tanky than wraiths).  I guess mass wraiths might be a real build if there's no threat of corsairs? snipe observers and cloak?  At very least could probably kill probes and force protoss to stay home with dragoons and build lots of cannons.  Not sure if that would be a thing, I'll just write this off as even.

ZvT: Corsairs put zerg off of mutas and detection.  Vultures take care of the rest.

TvT: Again, if some allowances giving terran an early unit like making firebat not require an academy so that they don't die by minute 2...yeah, this is an easy Corsair.  Terrans barely use marines in this matchup, but already sometimes use valkyries, and Corsairs are better vaklyries that can cast a spell to turn off enemy siege tanks, and can moving shot chase down dropships.

Uh, yep, ok, fine, Corsairs above Marine/Medic.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #847 on: November 13, 2021, 05:55:24 AM »
Started to think about vultures.

Did a bit of in-game testing, and ignoring production concerns and needing more supply depots, just focusing on cost, yeah, vultures are about even with hydralisks.  4 vultures will pretty consistently beat 3 hydras, but higher numbers are a bit more of a tossup.

But, and I was a little surprised by this, apparenlty vultures are also about even with dragoons doing the same kind of tests (3 dragoons cost about the same as 7 vultures, and...it's pretty close; if they attack each other, sometimes vultures scrape a victory sometimes dragoons scrape a victory).

So you know, that's interesting.

Probably worth thinking about why that is.

Vultures kill hydras in 8 hits (20 damage, cut in half).  I guess probably 9 hits cause hydras will regen 1 HP mid fight; only really applies until +1 vehicle weapons.

Vultures kill dragoon shields in...4 hits (20 damage to shields) and then dragoon bodies in 21 hits, for a total of 25.

Hm, yeah, that ought to be a harder matchup by raw numbers (3x the durability usually corresponds to about 2x the price).  Might just be dragoon pathfinding (the unit tester I was using basically just a-moves the units towards each other).

---

Vulture vs Dragoon swap

TvT: My kneejerk is dragoon favoured.  Early dragoons (built out of barracks) would counter early vultures, and would basically force the enemy terran into one early build (siege mode) and since goons hit air, really shuts down a ton of surprise builds like wraiths.  (Whereas the goon player, knowing their opponent has to open up siege, and will suffer to goon harass, is really wide open, could go for anything).  But...it's not completely one-sided here.  Spider Mines are useful vision in TvT, can give you an idea of when enemy tanks might be caught unsieged.  TvT can stall out in a split map situation, where the geysers mine out, and eventually both players go back to building vultures; the dragoon player would be stuck on marines for their mineral dump unit, and just lose in that situation.  So...maybe not so one-sided.  But still, I think dragoon being a good anti-vulture unit, and a better option than terran has as an anti siege tank unit, and a good harass terran early unit, I think make this a lean towards dragoon.

TvP: Um.  Well, with vulture gone, have to assume zealots will be a huge problem for terran, no unit that explicitly counters them at all.  But...still, PvP matches usually settle into mass dragoon at some point, so dragoons can beat zealots.  And...an almost pure dragoon army isn't really countered by vultures, though as the tests above show, vultures do alright against dragoons.  Does terran make tanks knowing that tons of zealots are coming, or just stick to dragoons?  What about reaver drops?  One of the things terran's supposed to do against reaver drops is lay spider mines in likely reaver drop locations.  That's gone now, so it should be more like PvP, where Terran basically can't do shit against Reavers.  What about Dark Templar?  Mines were a pretty good counter to those.  Vultures were good at actually being mobile and dealt their full damage to DTs, so those are way more dangerous.  What about sending an early dragoon across the map to protoss?  Protoss has to...cannon or just chase it with zealots; maybe try to get a surround by having the probes help the zealots?  Umm...wow, this match seems incredibly unstable, and I'm not sure who wins.  Maybe slight lean Vulture cause of all the scary options that will be way harder to manage like reavers and DTs?  Not sure.

TvZ: Slight lean Dragoon I guess.  Barracks unit that does a lot better than marines against ultras and lurkers.  Vultures rarely made in the matchup.  Probably the lowest impact match, though.

PvP: Huh.  Well.  Dragoon army is a little bit better in a straight up fight.  Vultures can lay mines in reaver drop locations, but not attack air so ths shuttles will never die.  Getting mines also gives you insurance against DTs.  Vulture drops really threaten to kill a ton of probes.  If the vulture player can stop the other player from marching across the map with Dragoons early before they get into all their tech they win.  But I don't know if they can.  Once again, not sure.

PvZ: Vulture I think.  Corsair Vulture still sounds terrifying for zerg to deal with.  Detection for mines will be hard as the corsairs kill them.  The threat of mutas is the main thing that prevents terran from busting out early vultures.  Vulture drops or runarounds killing lots of drones would be quite scary--zerg drone counts tend to be very low, and if zerg's army is not in their base, vultures can fight a few stray zerglings or hydras.  And...dragoons are not the most impactful unit in the matchup.  Nice against lurkers, but those tend to show up if the game goes longer.

---

OK, this seems reasonably even?  A lot of unsures or slight leans.  Probably puts Vulture in a similar category to dragoon (unexpected; would have thought Vulture would be cleanly ahead).  Honestly, maybe there's a flaw in this methodology, by adding in the two mirror matches, I end up doing three matchups where I  need to think about dragoon vs vulture (TvT, TvP and PvP), which puts a lot of emphasis on the rock-paper-scissors mechanism of how Dragoons mechanically have the rock paper scisssors damage reduction against vultures (and still barely beat them in a fight).

The matchups where vulture/goon don't come up are TvZ (mild goon lean but not because many goons would be built, only because vultures are almost never built) and one pretty strong vulture lean (PvZ, where corsairs are good enough against mutas to allow the building of vultures against zerg).  So I mean, one of those is a stronger lean than the other, but still not a super clearcut win.

Guess Vulture can live in the same tier as Dragoon for now, but I would like to revisit this when we have more stuff:

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #848 on: November 13, 2021, 06:40:44 AM »
OK well, moving on to the next ranged ground unit...the lurker.

Lurkers are a little funny, cause if you just take their raw stats and stick them into a spreadsheet, they're complete garbage.  Like...a lurker would lose 1v1 to a Goliath.  (Even though Goliath specializes in anti-air and costs about half what a lurker does).

But Lurkers do a few things.

1. Cloak while attacking.
2. Splash.  This mostly matters against marines cause even the smallest amount of splash is scary to them, but also matters against melee units like zealots or zerglings coming in one by one.
3. Their attack is almost more like a spell, which has a bunch of implications.  Doesn't miss 50% of the time when attacking uphill.  Doesn't miss under dark swarm.
4. They make attacking up a ramp very hard, much like placing photon cannons at the top of a ramp.  Lurker eggs can also basically be an invincible wall on a ramp for a short period of time.

Kneejerking not super high for them, though; let's compare to marines maybe?

Lurker vs Marine

TvZ: Marine win.  Lurkers would be a very nice anti-zergling tool, but obviously terran gets pigeonholed into mech.  And usually mass zergling isn't the response to mech.  Don't think you want lurkers against hydras.  Mutas can be made against mech, and you really don't want lurkers against those either.

ZvZ: Marine win.  Pure mineral dump option that can shoot mutas vs gas heavy thing that can't shoot mutas.

TvT: I don't think it matters very much in TvT.  Lurkers seem like garbage in the matchup, don't think you make them outside of maybe a cheese that prays your opponent didn't get detection.  Marines are mostly skipped over too.

PvT: Assuming that terran gets some replacement for their first unit (maybe firebat becomes first unit) so they don't die to the first gateway unit walking across the map...there's a real argument for lurker.  It really punishes zealots that try to dive on top of tanks.  It doesn't splash friendly units.  You could burrow lurkers underneath tanks.  Lots of possibilities.

ZvP: busting protoss with ranged units could start a little earlier, with higher DPS per cost units (marines mixed in with hydras).  But if the protoss doesn't die, zerg probably switches into entirely hydras anyway (less vulnerable to storm/reavers).  And eventually after that would probably want lurkers.  Depends how much you think marines add to the zerg hydra bust, vs how much you think midgame/lategame zerg really needs to tech into lurker contains vs just...making more hydras.  Maybe a year ago, I might have said getting to Lurkers is needed, but the trend in high level pro games seems to involve sticking on hydras for a surprisingly long time.  Um...maybe slight lean lurker?  Not sure.

So...2-1 or 2-2.

Eh, don't want to think too hard about whether lurkers are lower tier than hydras.  Like...I guess there is a case for it.  All three matchups can be reasonably played without lurker (there's an increasingly popular ZvT build that skips lurker and goes straight to ultras).  ZvP can't be played without hydras.  Lurker below hydra would go against decades old wisdom, though.  I'll stick em on the same tier for now.

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #849 on: November 13, 2021, 07:02:58 AM »
Guess it's time to look at the siege tank.

For reference, Siege Tanks cost about the same as a lurker, but with about double the DPS, double the range, and more HP.  Not completely without downsides.  They don't cloak, do splash friendly units, and can't hit enemies in melee range unless they unsiege (minimum range).  But the 12 range and good stats on top of that are just so scary.

Same race units like the vulture are a bit harder to compare, so it's only got the dragoon to be compared to.  I...expect a stomp.

Siege Tank vs Dragoon

TvT: Tank wins.  Terran doesn't even have a zealot type unit to fight back.

TvP: Tank wins.  (Zealot siege tank has actually come up in pro games when dark arcons mind controlled an SCV.  It is very good).

PvP: Tank still right?  Zealot Tank sounds like it should be alright against goon reaver.

ZvT: Lots of interesting questions here; does mass hydra actually become good in the absence of tanks?  Dragoons might kill lurkers less efficiently than tanks, but they're more mobile so maybe they put on pressure faster than zerg can prepare.  But dragoons are miserable against sunkens (sunkens deal explosive damage, half damage to marines, but full damage to dragoons).  Siege tanks can siege out of range.  Feels like another tank win.

ZvP: Tank.  Nice hydras you have there, would be a shame if *tank noises*.

Uh, yeah, seems like a clean 5-0.

(S tier)
Siege Tank

(gap)

(A tier?)
Vulture (might be too low?)
Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra
Lurker (might be too high?)