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Author Topic: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)  (Read 133909 times)

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #950 on: October 08, 2023, 08:01:45 AM »
Defiler is a big one, so...ok, let's do this.

Defiler

ZvT: 4/4.  Not much to be said, obviously a matchup defining unit.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Seen them in use in ASL, just the game usually ends before they can be teched into.

ZvP: 2/4.  ASL games don't go to defiler very often, but I do know plague is well respected in ZvP (to the point that Artosis wanted to nerf it for that matchup, or something).

TvT: 4/4.  So...okay, in the past when thinking about giving Defiler to Terran, I switched the polarity on dark swarm so that melee attacks miss, and ranged attacks hit, but especially in this matchup that's not what Terran wants at all.  Dark Swarming your tanks and not their tanks is good.  Dark Swarm against air is good.  Let's try just keeping dark swarm as-is.  There's also a funny mechanical quirk where consume requires eating a zerg unit--let's ignore that too.  ...Anyway, I think Defiler in TvT would just be absolutely core.  Good in tank vs tank.  Basically makes air play other than dropships pretty terrible against the defiler player.  And it's TvT so you absolutely have time to tech to them.

TvP: 2/4.  They absolutely invalidate carriers, but I don't know that they're all that exciting against other protoss builds.

TvZ: 3/4.  Um, yeah, so plague is a bit like irradiate, but the defiler can't be sniped by scourge, and can AoE multiple stacked lurkers, or just in general punish zerg for putting a bunch of units under a dark swarm.  You'd still build science vessels too--plague is only HP->1 so it doesn't delete enemy defilers.  But pretty sure you would use both.  Also just lets you fight fire with fire against hydra defiler--plague their hydras, dark swarm your marines against their hydras.  I think I'm going to shy just below the 4/4 rating here, though, cause if the zerg just goes ling ultra, and maybe skips lurkers (like a crazy zerg build) the terran wouldn't necessarily get defilers themselves.  (Although plaguing ultras would still be fine).  But certainly I would expect to see them frequently.

PvP: 2/4.  Would they be better than teching to high templar?  Maybe, all things being equal--plague really good against protoss units, probably better than storm.  Dark Swarm potentially relevant too.  But a lot of games just end up in a dragoon arms race where neither player can tech to high templar, and Defiler is deeper into the tech tree requiring more upgrades (Consume+Plague), and protoss has answers to dark swarm (like storm and reavers).  Defilers would be nice to have as an option, and I'd expect to see them sometimes, but I don't think they'd be an "every game" tech.

PvT: 3/4.  Yeah, zealots under dark swarm sounds decent.  Dark swarm to just get casters like defilers and high templars close without being insta sniped by tanks also sounds fine.  I don't think they would be an every game tech, just because they are so far up the tech tree, and siege tanks and spider mines make it so that dark swarm isn't an auto win or anything.  And protoss could still fake out terran and just bust out carriers.  But they'd show up pretty often.

PvZ: 2/4.  So like...when you already have storm, do you need plague?  Against zerg, when storm doesn't kill it should be pretty close to plague right?  A couple of reasons why you might consider plague--it's un-dodgeable, the AoE is a bit larger (33% larger square going by liquipedia).  But on the flip side, 150 energy compared to 75 for storm.  But you can manage that with consume.  And dark swarm is not nothing either (could matter for zealot vs hydra fights.  Makes it so that defilers can't be sniped by mutas).  Not every game, but you'd probably see them sometimes.

---

Defiler: 23/36

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #951 on: October 08, 2023, 08:42:06 AM »
So...the main zerg unit that's left is scourge (and after that just overlord).

Scourge

ZvZ: 4/4.  Arguably the least important of the big three, but also basically never see a ZvZ where none are built short of extreme cheese.

ZvT: 4/4.  Assuming a pretty normal SK terran, I don't think you can play without them, science vessels too important to kill.  Dropships are also good in this matchup, and would be a nightmare without scourge.

ZvP: 3/4.  Honestly, you do see them a lot in this matchup too.  It's not every game, cause zerg has some rushes where they never get a lair, but scourge chase off corsairs early on, they snipe observers in lurker contains, they are a big counter to shuttle play.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, use them against dropships.  Not every TvT gets to the mass dropship phase, and scourge don't like...completely prevent dropship play, cause I've seen plenty of patrolling scourge be pretty slow and dumb when it comes to dropships, and they are heavy gas, but still I'd expect to see them a lot.

TvP: 3/4.  Actually...yeah, I'd expect to see them a lot here too.  Cost efficient to snipe observers, and just makes mines a nightmare.  Good against shuttles.  Would smash carriers in small numbers.  You wouldn't always get them, cause you don't usually want a starport early unless you have a hard read on their build, but I'd expect to see them a lot.

TvZ: 1/4.  I don't think you want these against mutas--without your own fast air units, mutas can just moving shot and snipe them without getting hit.  You won't generally want to use these against overlords either, although there might be some cute cheese builds where you just suddenly supply block them at a key moment.  So like...I don't think they're a 0, if nothing else they are fine against guardian pushes.  But I don't think they would get built all that often.

PvP: 2/4.  Getting a few scourge to stop a shuttle with a reaver from dropping in your base?  Yeah, sure, seems fine.  Sniping observers also always a reasonable passtime.  But...I don't think these are an every or most game tech.  Can be good against some builds.

PvT: 2/4.  Sniping science vessels is...fine.  This isn't PvZ though, so it's not the end of the world if you just...don't bother.  And terran has scan, so it's not like sniping a science vessel will make an invisible army just win.  So like...it's mostly for the cost efficiency of 2 scourge are a good trade into a science vessel.  Not a game-changing essential unit built every game, but something you could mix in if you start seeing SVs.

PvZ: 1/4.  I'm sure there's some technical reason to build scourge over a corsair, but it would have to be something obscure like "the mutas are above my stargate waiting to snipe the next corsair that pops out".  Yeah, scourge would be a funny surprise in that narrow scenario.  For the most part just make corsairs instead, though.

---

Scourge: 23/36

Just as a bit of a recap

Zergling 29/36
Siege Tank 29/36
Mutalisk 29/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Hydralisk 17/36
Queen: 13/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #952 on: October 08, 2023, 09:01:59 AM »
OK, so overlord.

And just to clarify, protoss and terran if they get overlord, they don't lose the ability to make pylons/depots.  They can still build those for walls (and power in the case of pylons).  But they would start with an overlord for scouting, and could build more for supply or general utility. 

ZvZ: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

ZvT: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

ZvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

TvT: 3/4.  I think overlords would be unusually good here.  0 supply 0 gas dropships making maxed out armies bigger (even though sure, they are way slower than normal dropships, I still think they'd get used).  Spotters for tank fights.  Everyone always gets mines, so free detection is particularly impactful.

TvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

TvZ: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

PvP: 2/4.  Overlord scouting good.  Free detection good.  "nice to have" sounds right.

PvT: 3/4.  Maybe these rise a bit above in this matchup too.  Again, terran always gets mines, so detection that doesn't shoehorn you into robo tech sounds relevant.  And cheap massable droppers that don't take supply (and count as pylons) is...I mean, yeah, protoss also likes dropping things on tanks, or potentially doom dropping faster than would be possible with arbiters.

PvZ: 2/4.  They have a nice little bonus over observers of it taking two scourge to kill them.  They also cost about the same as an observer but don't take gas, which protoss appreciates.  But at the end of the day...eh, don't think that's quite enough to sell them as a 3/10 don't think they'd fundamentally change the matchup.

---

Overlord 20/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #953 on: October 08, 2023, 05:02:44 PM »
There is one other zerg unit I forgot to do.

Lurker

ZvT: 3/4.  And these days with hydra lurker being the standard way to play getting close to 4/4, but crazy zerg (where you skip over lurker to ultra) is still a thing.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Mmm...what did I give ultras?  A 1 for this?  Yeah, well, ok, Lurkers get a 1 as well then.

ZvP: 3/4.  There are games that don't get them.  Hydra allins, mass muta+scourge plays.  But Lurkers do seem to be the stable way of playing.

TvT: 0/4.  I'm really not sure if they have any use in this matchup.  They punish melee units mostly, and Terran doesn't have those.  They might have some application as a drop in the opponent's base, cause SCVs, being effectively melee, can't fight them off the way they can fight off sieged tanks by getting on top of them.  But IDK, if you're worried about the fighting power of SCVs, just drop vultures right?

TvP: 2/4.  It would be very weird to make lurkers long-term in this matchup.  More expensive than tanks, more vulnerable to mine drags, more vulnerable to psi storm.  But...they cloak.  And protoss observers can be sniped.  So there's some potential for cheese.  And there's some potential for ultra-lategame supply efficiency.

TvZ: 4/4.  Extremely good against zerglings.  All splash, so fully effective under enemy dark swarms.  Yeah, I do expect these would be made over firebats.

PvP: 0/4.  Bad against dragoons.  Bad against reavers.  Worse as cloak cheese than DTs.  I just don't see a niche for them.

PvT: 1/4.  Pretty bad in the main army, but I think there might be niche uses against vulture runbys specifically in bases that have narrow ramps.  But...I'm still a little skeptical.  You'd need like four of them stacked on top of each other, and you'd have to be pretty careful to give the vultures no way to spread against them cause they are medium armour so easy for the vultures to kill.

PvZ: 2/4.  They are terrible against hydras unless there's a lack of detection.  Maybe there could be hold lurker plays against hydras, though?  Or corsair lurker might have some merit over Corsair DT just cause overlords need to expose themselves more against lurkers, which makes them easier to snipe, letting the corsairs do more work.  Alternatively, if it gets to a very lategame point with cracklings and defilers, Lurkers could play a similar role to a reaver where they just punish the zerg for ever sending cracklings at the main army, and are fully effective under dark swarm.  Reavers already do both of those things, but maybe Lurkers have enough of a niche, like not needing to spend minerals on every scarab shot, or not needing shuttles to move around with the army (and thus making the army not scared of scourge), or the small added extra annoyance of being cloaked.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

---

Lurker: 16/36.

OK, just as a bit of bookkeeping, I guess I'm giving pretty much all the zerg units (except guardians) 1/4 for the ZvZ matchup, and Hydra previously got 0/4 for that, so +1 for hydras as well then.

Zergling 29/36
Siege Tank 29/36
Mutalisk 29/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 18/36
Lurker 16/36
Queen: 13/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #954 on: October 08, 2023, 11:32:51 PM »
I guess there is technically one other unit from zerg.  The drone.

So...how will handing drone to other races work?  Let's say drone is given to Terran.  I guess something like this:

* Drone is built out of the command center.
* Drone can morph into terran buildings and not zerg buildings, but needs to build "on creep" (close enough to the command center).
* Drones obviously do not have the repair action.
* An appropriate discount for terran buildings morphed into by the drone will be applied (and likewise, for protoss, if borrowing probe, warping in buildings would be slightly more expensive to compensate for not occupying a worker).
* Normal swapping rules do NOT apply, so e.g. probes would keep protoss shields, drones would still be biological and keep zerg regeneration.  This is to help differentiate between probes and drones which would otherwise be identical fighters when traded.

ZvZ: 2/4.  You'll fight with drones sometimes if you're rushed, like hatch first vs 9 pool.

ZvT: 2/4.  Same as above but proxy hatch.  Also a good scout that can kill a building SCV.

ZvP: 2/4.  Yeah, drone pulls vs cannon rush happen.

TvT: 2/4.  Yeah, if you had them and your opponent didn't, there would be some nice potential for harass, and potential to deny scouting.  Nice to have.

TvP: 2/4.  A worker that doesn't just die to moving shot when scouting, and which can chase off harassing probes.  Potentially you might even use the morph into structure ability in some specific scenarios, like when there's a proxy gate, just so that there's no way to delay the factory from finishing by killing the building SCV.

TvZ: 2/4.  I think there's a lot fewer applications against zerg than against protoss.  Yes, Terran would like to not lose their building SCV, but terran makes wall-ins in this matchup, so the "build on creep" limitation means that drones aren't really a solution.  But...you'd probably still make one drone for scouting.  And maybe you'd use drones to morph turrets in your mineral line so that the building SCV can't easily be sniped.  So a slightly lower 2, but still a 2.

PvP: 0/4.

PvT: 0/4.

PvZ: 0/4.

---

Drone: 12/36

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #955 on: October 09, 2023, 07:21:30 AM »
I guess moving on to the big protoss units.

Zealot

PvP: 3/4.  Can you play a PvP without making a zealot?  Yeah, if you both just macro and make dragoons.  But Zealots are important both for cheesing and defending cheese and even early non-cheese pressure and defence.  It's not like it's an unusual game when zealots get made.

PvT: 4/4.  Can't play without them.

PvZ: 4/4.  Can't play without them.

ZvZ: 3/4.  So like...ok, let's talk larva efficiency.  I think for units given to zerg, some of them will need to require multiple larva.  Like...carriers, carriers occupy a building that costs about as much as a hatchery for 90 seconds or so, to map that properly you'd need like...7 or 8 larva to fuse together to make a big carrier egg.  So...anyway, how many larva would a zealot cost?  1 larva.  It's a unit that takes 25 seconds to build out of a 150 mineral structure (gateway).  Larva spawn on a building that cost about twice as much at about twice that speed (something like once every 12 seconds).  And that is quite a bit more larva efficient than zerglings.  That said...zealots are still slow, zealots in low numbers still are mineral inefficient against lings, and the speed upgrade for zealots would probably be like...lair tech (citadel completes roughly around the time of lair, the upgrade is slow, and even if started immediately would finish around the time when the first mutas popped).  So...I'm not sure if you're getting that tech at all, maybe zealots would get dumped after the earlygame.  Still, they would definitely get some use.

ZvP: 3/4.  I'm hedging a little here, but I think protoss can deal with zealots, as they aren't usually massed up in PvP.  I suspect specifically even if zerg has a bunch of zealots, and protoss has a bunch of zealots, and they're in a line fighting, that a single reaver just tips that fight very far towards protoss.  So I don't think this is a 4/4.  That said, there's several points before Reavers where protoss can use Zealots to trade efficiently--at first behind mineral lines trading effiicently with lings.  Later trading well with hydras if they can get on top of them.  Zerg having their own zealots at this point lets them trade a bit more neutral, so yeah, not saying no to that.

ZvT: 4/4.  Yeah, pretty sure zealots break this matchup.  They fill some of the same roles as ultralisks, but they're hatchery tech, and don't get countered by siege tanks (unlike ultras).  Like...I think they cause big problems for bio pushes and also bio tank pushes.  Like...flank with zealots, and then when the zealots draw fire, come in with lings and mutas.

TvT: 3/4.  So I'm looking at this, and I gave Zergling 3/4 for TvT.  And...yeah, I see the logic.  Yes, excellent unit to drop on tanks.  But...it would be a barracks unit, so not getting upgrades, and like...not good until a ways into the game, and it's not like the opponent would be unable to drop onto tanks, with units that have other utility besides being dropped out of dropships.

TvP: 2/4.  Zealot tank pushes are very good, and have come up when, for example, a protoss mind controlled an SCV.  That said, I think the upgrade there is upgrading dragoon to tank, and in the case of mind control...presumably the protoss had good upgrades on zealots (they would be a barracks unit for terran).  I think Terran will still mostly stick to vultures over zealots.

TvZ: 3/4.  So ok, normal rules about units going to terran apply, which means Zealot becomes a range unit with 0 range so they can't hit under dark swarm.  Also, zealot does not get healed by medics.  But also, they have all HP and no shields (with a bit less HP to compensate).  That said...I'm still trying to decide if they break the matchup, and...the one thing I think keeps them in check is that they don't hit mutas.  They would break ground combat for sure, like...ling surrounds on marines are borderline invalidated if terran can surround their army with a wall of zealots.  But if you're building, say, 20 zealots to surround your marines, you can't actually move out against mutas, they will just dart in and out and kill the marines, and then the zealots are free pickings.  And then once defilers are out zealots become manageable--dark swarm wrecks them due to rules of terran inheriting a unit, and plague also wrecks them.  Still, I mean, Zealots would be fine and pop up both early and late.

---

Zealot: 29/36

Surprisingly these actually join the top tier with siege tank, mutalisk, and zergling.

I am surprised they ended up tied with zergling.  Seems like the main place that zergling lost points relative to zealot is PvP and PvT.  In general, units should be expected to score slightly higher in their own race, as often when given to other races the other races have competing units that fill the same role.  And that's a problem zergling has in PvP and PvT--zealot can fill most of the same roles, and zergling while having some early applications seems likely to drop off--a bit too fragile.  Whereas the other way around, giving Zealot to zerg, Zealot gives zerg a sturdy unit, which is never not relevant.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2023, 07:42:54 AM by metroid composite »

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #956 on: October 09, 2023, 07:47:50 PM »
Reaver

PvP: 4/4.  One of the two most important units.

PvT: 3/4.  Seen in most games, and forces terran off of bio.  But you do tend to tech out of them.

PvZ: 2/4.  Reavers aren't like shocking to see in this matchup, but not that common.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Only reason I'm giving this a 1 and not a 0 is the rare lategame hive zerg, where yeah, reavers under dark swarm with hydras would kind of beat everything.

ZvT: 4/4.  Do reavers just break this matchup?  Would they be seen every game?  They would be felt a lot later than reavers from protoss, cause zerg transport tech comes out so much later, but...they do basically force Terran off of bio, which is relevant no matter when in the game it happens.  And once terran is on Mech...Reavers are pretty good at stopping mech from pushing too, and very mineral heavy which is a good complement to queens.  Also makes it harder to put goliaths in front of tanks to zone queens, cause then reavers get free shots.  Yeah, I think that does just break things.

ZvP: 4/4.  Reavers are like turbo-charged lurkers.  Invalidate zealots much harder.  Way better against dragoons.  If there's a contain with hydras, Reavers can actually start sieging buildings.  If they get stormed, they can just get picked up by an overlord.  Nasty under dark swarm.  I think you do still use lurkers as well, since exploiting the weakness of protoss detection keeps protoss from counterpunching.  But the reaver really seals the deal.

TvT: 2/4.  Decent as a drop I guess.  But for the most part you'll make tanks.

TvP: 3/4.  Do reavers completely break this matchup?  I suspect no, cause protoss can just go carriers.  But they do cause some problems on the ground as they can really thin out zealots fast.

TvZ: 4/4.  One of the rare ranged but 100% splash units that therefore works under dark swarm and breaks this matchup.

---

Reaver: 27/36

Just below the very top tier, but not by much.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #957 on: October 09, 2023, 08:34:38 PM »
Dragoon

PvP: 4/4.  One of the two most important units in this matchup.

PvT: 4/4.  One of the most important units in this matchup.

PvZ: 3/4.  Not made literally every game, but made often enough.  A good choice against lurkers--beats them quite hard with detection.  Fine against hydras if the hydras get stormed.

TvT: 3/4.  So...barracks unit, so you probably switch off of them after a while.  But barracks unit that does well against vultures, and is better than goliaths are against ground (although worse against air).  You'd probably see at least a few of them most games, although I don't think one player having dragoons and the other not makes the matchup unwinnable for the player without dragoons.

TvP: 3/4.  So they'd require an Academy I guess?  Yeah, I once again think eventually you switch off of them, but they probably give terran a nice edge early on--make their barracks useful.  Might enable terran to expand a little faster as they wouldn't need to rush factory--mass dragoons would perform fine.  Earlier academy gives earlier scanners, so that covers risk of DT rush.

TvZ: 2/4.  Against zerg, marines are better than dragoons in almost all scenarios--marines are better against mutas, lings, sunken colonies, etc.  But...two exceptions.  The first is that dragoons do a lot better against lurkers--they match them in range, are not scared of the AoE, and a single dragoon (with vision) can 1v1 a lurker.  Just...need to make sure the dragoon isn't also in range of a sunken, cause those deal 40 damage to dragoons.  And it's a bit dubious whether you would make a dragoon over just making a tank if lurkers and sunkens are the concern--I guess the reasons to consider dragoons over tanks are that dragoons are a bit more mobile, and a bit less snipable by mutas so maybe there's an argument there.  The other case where you might want dragoons is against ultras.  Just...not really stopped by ultra armour.  The final thing worth considering is supply efficiency.  Terran can max out or close against zerg, and dragoons are a bit more supply efficient than marines.  I don't think we'd see them a lot, but we'd see them occasionally.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Dragoons are bad for the same reason hydras are bad.  And look, maybe if you get to hive, get dark swarm, and would build hydras under dark swarm, maybe now you'd consider Dragoons instead, but I'm not convinced that's preferable, and even if it is preferable the edge is so minor I don't really want to credit it.

ZvP: 2/4.  Hydras are better until there's a lot of AoE like storm, and also large army sizes make 6 range units preferable to 5 range ones.  I do think situationally zerg would make the switch, though.  If protoss is contained on two bases, and the zerg has more bases, yeah, just go dragoons so that fancy plays like storm are much less likely to give the protoss an out.

ZvT: 1/4.  Hmm...what did I give hydras in this matchup?  Wait, 2/4 saying they're only good against mech?  Ehh...ok, maybe that should be a 3/4, since hydra lurker defiler has continued to be very popular.  Anyway, is there a reason to build dragoons over hydras against terran?  It would have to be a weird situation like terran is making vultures.  I think hydras are generally better paired with defiler plagues, generally better against tanks, probably about the same into goliaths, substantially worse against science vessel irradiate.  I have seen heavy vulture play against zerg in ASL, though, it's rare but it can happen, so I guess this isn't a 0.

---

Dragoon: 22/36

And adjusting hydras up to 3/4 into Terran here's the current count:

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Devourer: 4/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #958 on: October 09, 2023, 09:03:44 PM »
I am curious to see if there can be another top tier unit, and the only likely candidate left is Vulture so...

Vulture

TvT: 3/4.  You mass them for a bit to get map control, but after a few minutes you stop making them.

TvP: 4/4.  Literally the best anti-protoss unit.

TvZ: 1/4.  While heavy vulture play is very rare, speed vulture getting in and killing all the drones before mutas can pop is a cheese I've seen win in the ASL.  Doesn't work if the Zerg knows it's coming--they'll make spines in the nat and block.  But like...the same could be said of DTs.  That said, if DTs and overlord scouts are the measure of 2/4, I think I value this a bit below that.  Rarer cheese.

PvP: 3/4.  I mean, both sides are making mass dragoon anyway, so vultures are like...while obviously good into protoss I don't think they actually break the matchup.

PvT: 4/4.  Does this break the matchup?  I think vultures would be made by protoss basically every game, and protoss already out-expands and out-mines terran, but now protoss could stop terran from dealing economic damage.  And vultures are...maybe a bit worse than zealots in big combats, but fine, lay mines on top of tanks.  Laying mines would also give a ton of vision and slow tank pushes.  Hmm...sounds like yes.

PvZ: 2/4.  I don't think vultures do very much against zerg, at least early on.  They're cost neutral against hydras, so that is nice.  But realistically the robo is probably busy building other stuff.  (Same reason when there's a lurker contain you aren't really building reavers cause you need to keep building observers).  If you can get past the midgame threats--the risk of hydra bust, the risk of mass mutas, the likely lurker contain, I do think you make vultures, but often a protoss who gets past those threats is already winning.

ZvZ: 3/4.  They make for a nasty pre-muta all-in, where if the opponent is only defending with lings and not sunkens it's over.  But like...would they always cause a weaker player to beat a slightly stronger player?  Ehh...just make some sunkens.  Obviously a nice advantage to have the option of having them vs not having them, you can force sunkens, you can make ling floods against you weaker, but I don't think they auto-win.

ZvT: 4/4.  Force terran off of bio.  Doesn't stop mech, but really slows it down and gives a ton of map vision at no mineral cost.  Yeah, breaks the matchup.

ZvP: 4/4.  Yeah, so like Zealots are the main tool against zerg.  Vultures would break this matchup.

---

Vulture: 28/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #959 on: October 11, 2023, 06:11:40 PM »
Medic/Marine

So...once again treating medics as basically a marine upgrade.  Once again medics are assumed not to heal units of other races if traded--just heal marines.

TvT: 2/4.  Do people build marines in this matchup?  Yeah, looks like usually a couple right at the start of the game, chase off enemy scouts.  If one vulture shows up, can help your vulture kill their vulture.  I imagine there's some cheeses too.

TvP: 2/4.  Honestly, higher impact than TvT, but same general category.  Low impact unit you use a bit for early defence then tech out of.

TvZ: 3/4.  Not completely essential since mech builds exist, but still very, very good and notably considered better than mech.

ZvZ: 4/4.  Do I think these break the matchup if one side has them and the other doesn't?  Um...probably?  Spawning pool tech unit that can chase away overlords, so no scouting for one side.  Unit that can break the symmetry on zergling walls.  All or at least mostly mineral investment (stim and medics cost some gas) that does reasonably well against mutas.  If your mutas are over your marine pack, basically can't get scourged, but their mutas can still get scourged.  More larva efficient (would be like 2 marines per larva).  I don't know that any of these factors individually breaks the matchup, but all of them together is a lot.  No overlord scouts.  Threat of winning the ling fight due to marine backup.  Threat of invalidating scourge.  Threat of winning the air war.  More larva for drones.

ZvT: 3/4.  Would zerg use marine medic?  Yeah, sure, better hydra to pair with hydra lurker defiler right?  Would it be every game?  Would it break the matchup?  I mean, no, if terran goes mech zerg doesn't make marine medic, for example.

ZvP: 2/4.  Zerg would switch off of marine/medic?  Yeah.  But early on they'd be nice.  Two marines cost the same as a hydra and have a bit more DPS if going for a bust and don't deal half damage to zealots.  But yeah, absolutely don't want a 40 HP unit once storms and reavers come out.

PvP: 0/4.  Yeah, I really don't see the application here.

PvT: 0/4.  Maybe there's a rush build where you build a marine instead of a second zealot, just so that enemy marines can't hide between buildings.  But I'm fairly skeptical--enemy marines could just shoot your marine back.

PvZ: 3/4.  It's a unit that's cost-efficient against hydras, so that's a big deal.  But it suffers more against lurkers, and protoss still has a big detection problem (no scans, easy to snipe observers).  And obviously defilers also do great against marine/medic.  I think marine/medic would be good, would get used most games, but wouldn't make the matchup unwinnable.

---

Marine/Medic: 19/36

This notably puts them exactly tied with hydralisk, which yes, that is similar to where they were under the other method.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #960 on: October 11, 2023, 07:04:23 PM »
Scout

PvT: 1/4.  Yes, there was that one match where they got used in an ASL finals or whatever.

PvZ: 1/4.  Yes, there is the occasional scout rush if the protoss scouts that it's spire but not hydra den, they can get a scout out and start hitting drones.

PvP: 0/4.  Never seen it here.

TvT: 0/4.  Is there a world where these get built over wraiths?  They unironically are ok air to air.  Like...one scout vs two wraiths is roughly a "they will all die at the same time" matchup.  But a scout does cost less supply than 2 wraiths.  And resource wise does cost slightly less than double of two wraiths.  And also more mineral heavy letting you get out more gas heavy factory units.  Obviously can't cloak, but maybe that's ok.  But also...4 range instead of 5, but maybe that's ok.  And obviously much worse ground attack, but maybe that's ok.  The thing that kills me though is that they need an upgrade on the fleet beacon to even have the same movement speed as a wraith and it's a really expensive upgrade (200/200).  And that I think is just the final nail here.

TvP: 0/4.

TvZ: 0/4.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Would scouts get built in this matchup?  So...worth at least considering right?  Air to air they are about the same as a muta against light targets like enemy mutas, and maybe slightly better if both sides get +1 carapace.  They are more mineral heavy, that could be nice--basically if you're safe on the ground, can use minerals to win the air fight.  However...so like there's a question of how many larva they would need, and I think it's probably about 4, and that makes them relatively unattractive.  And then also, no chance in hell are you getting the speed upgrade for them, which means they kind of just die to scourge (dead to 3 scourge hits, or 2 scourge hits and a bit of muta damage).  And I think that combined with high larva cost just sinks them.

ZvT: 0/4.  So...they move just a little bit slower than dropships.  That sucks.  They would technically survive irradiate with like 1 health, and they deal a lot of damage to science vessels, but I still don't think they're a good pick against science vessels.  If they're plagued, a muta is better.  If they're not plagued, irradiate is still good (reminder that zerg scouts would be irradiatable).  But...I'm considering them still.  Why?  Battlecruisers are a real lategame TvZ tech, and scouts beat battlecruisers in a way that hydras or scourge do not.  That said, if the battlecruiser has yamato ready to go it still becomes pretty sketchy for scouts (like you'd need 3 scouts cause one would get yamatoed, and you still might lose a second one and be cost-inefficient).  They're also a big larva investment (4 larva per scout) and build slow (50 seconds) so you can't really build them in response to a battlecruiser arriving at your base.  Ehh...no, I think that's too many problems for these to be a serious counter.  Building like...8 scourge takes less time, and less larva, and less overall resources (but more gas).

ZvP: 0/4.  Corsairs deal half damage to mutas, but full damage to scouts lol.  Also, scouts don't even deal full damage back to corsairs.

---

Scout: 2/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #961 on: October 11, 2023, 07:23:28 PM »
Corsair

PvZ: 4/4.  Admittedly there are some hydra bust games where protoss might only build 1 or 0 corsairs.  But if zerg knew protoss couldn't build corsairs?  Yeah, mutas every game.  I guess protoss rushes dark archon, but that's pretty slow and the matchup probably just becomes awful.

PvT: 0/4.  Corsairs have come up in ASL PvT, but we're talking like...island maps.

PvP: 0/4.

TvT: 4/4.  I actually think these just break the matchup.  Beat like everything in the air until battlecruisers.  And unironically disruption web if one side had access to it and the other did not would just be a huge problem.

TvP: 0/4.  Wraiths are better against individual shuttles and individual arbiters.  Corsairs aren't the answer to carriers.

TvZ: 4/4.  Corsair tank vulture I think breaks this matchup.

ZvZ: 4/4.  Yeah, corsairs make one side just win the muta war.

ZvT: 2/4.  When you plague a bunch of science vessels, corsairs are an improvement over mutas to clean them out.  More range, more HP, attack faster.  A nice upgrade, although not super essential.

ZvP: 3/4.  Know what corsairs would be pretty good against?  Enemy corsairs.  I don't think it's break the matchup level of a problem--if the protoss hard pumps corsairs they can hold it.  If the protoss gets a dark archon they can hold it.  But...still makes a good and somewhat commonly used allin even stronger.

---

Corsair: 21/36
« Last Edit: October 12, 2023, 05:22:06 AM by metroid composite »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #962 on: October 12, 2023, 01:30:09 AM »
Carrier

PvP: 0/4.  Have not seen this in recent ASL games.

PvZ: 0/4.  Have not seen this in recent ASL games.

PvT: 2/4.  Nice tech path option.

ZvZ: 1/4.  So carriers would clearly be hive tech, and a long term investment, but yes, if the tech gets that far they would get used.

ZvP: 0/4.  I think they're a bit too vulnerable to dark archons (mind control instant stealing a carrier).  Especially given how long it takes to make a carrier switch, including interceptor build time--if any scouting reveals the tech switch, protoss should have time to counter the carriers.

ZvT: 1/4.  Carrier would become biological.  And then it would die to two irradiates.  Granted, marines can't actually kill an upgraded carrier (more armour than an ultralisk) and maybe it could be a way to pop units that had been hit by plague.  So I'll give the benefit of the doubt here and give it a small amount of points, but it still would be a pretty rare thing I think.

TvT: 3/4.  So battlecruisers can actually fight carriers.  If they just sit in each other's range, and have equal upgrades, 3 battlecruisers will beat 3 fully stocked carriers without using Yamato.  But...carriers can potentially kite--interceptors will continue to attack a target when the carrier is up to 12 range away.  Carriers are more mobile--battlecruisers have 1.86 speed, carriers have 2.48 speed.  Carriers kill ground units a little bit faster.  There are ways to beat carriers TvT including just building battlecruisers, so I don't think it breaks the matchup.  But I do think carriers would be made.

TvP: 0/4.  Bottom line, if battlecruisers don't make sense to build for Terran, I don't think Carriers will make the cut either.  The spellcaster situation is asymmetric, with arbiter stasis and dark archon mind control both being serious threats to a terran carrier army.

TvZ: 0/4.  Battlecruisers are good versus zerg cause they one-shot scourge, and also have more HP.  Carriers are unusually vulnerable because plagued interceptors on returning to the carrier will not re-launch (interceptors do not launch until they have full health, which doesn't happen till plague wears off).  I don't really see building carriers over battlecruisers in this matchup.

---

Carrier: 7/36

So it's surprising to me that carriers are this low.  Almost as low as ultralisks.  Tied with guardians.

Guardians got some free points cause protoss is starved for air to ground units before carriers.  And singular expensive units are bad in ways that less expensive units like guardians aren't always.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2023, 05:21:49 AM by metroid composite »

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #963 on: October 12, 2023, 05:08:09 AM »
A lategame PvZ with mass lurkers, defilers, reavers, high templars (which protoss eventually wins).  Ladder game between Rain and Action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug-ScYJvUSg

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #964 on: October 12, 2023, 06:48:28 AM »
Arbiter

PvP: 0/4.  Can't remember seeing one in ASL.

PvT: 2/4.  An occasional tech.

PvZ: 0/4.  Not really an option because scourge shut it down so hard.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Even in the lategame ZvZ scenario...wouldn't you just make defiler instead?  Like...maybe stasis would be fine, but Arbiter costs more than double of a defiler, and is more vulnerable to scourge snipes.

ZvT: 2/4.  So...it would become biological, so it would be irradiate bait, although an arbiter can survive one irradiate.  The obvious thing to go for is stasis.  And if you get a big stasis on a bunch of science vessel or a chunk of bio, and then the zerg is able to control that area, yeah, the stasised units should be really dead.  Can surround the stasised ground units with burrowed lurkers.  Can surround stasised science vessels with scourge (that can be built after the stasis lands and they'll hatch in time).  The other thing you could do is just recall.  You can recall burrowed lurkers, defilers, lings, and as we've seen Terran really struggles to stop recalls like this.  So...I think it's fine.  But it is a very long-term investment, a bit like carriers you need to be able to set aside about 500 gas for a solid 2.5 minutes without dying.  Would really want to stabilize with hive tech first, and then maybe arbiter is the killing blow.

ZvP: 1/4.  So...do you want to recall a big ball of units in the protoss' main base?  Well...if the protoss is ready for it, they see a ball of nicely clumped units and they get a nice storm.  But...I could see potentially wanting a stasis.  In particular, if the high templar are in a clump, and you stasis them, you probably just win that fight, the remaining protoss army probably retreats.  That said, killing the high templar out of stasis might be really messy, as they do gain energy while they are in stasis, so if the opponent reacts fast to stasis dropping they could drop a lot of storms.  But I think there's an additional angle here of protoss detection being very snipeable by zerg, so maybe just the cloak filed is relevant enough.  For all that you can still storm cloaked units.  Eh, certainly not an every game thing--it's slow to build slow to research and expensive, and nothing here sounds like a slam dunk.  But stasis is a strong spell, and maybe cloaking hydras is worth it, and protoss won't kill arbiters all that easily unless they keep corsairs alive; there might be something here.

TvT: 4/4.  One terran having arbiters and the other not basically means one terran will always have an edge if the fight goes to battlecruisers.  But also just...recall good, this is the matchup where people will build 8 dropships, and recall does that better.  Stasis good.  Stasis some tanks and then plant mines with vultures or move your army in.  Stasis a clump of dropships and then move Goliaths underneath.  Stasis a clump of wraiths and move goliaths underneath.  If the game goes into a split map scenario, I think one terran the terran that doesn't have arbiters, is very crippled in the kind of air play they can pull off safely, and just rushing down tanks on land is not really viable, so seems like this matchup would just break, yes.

TvP: 4/4.  So for starters, Carriers just not a viable tech, stasis is too strong against them.  But also, if you're rushing down a tank vulture line, and an arbiter freezes half your army, and then the rest of your army has to start walking around stasised units--yeah, your attack is just over.

TvZ: 3/4. So...I checked it out just now, and stasis doesn't work on burrowed lurkers.  Stasis doesn't work on sunken colonies either.  I don't think there's much chance of recall either, cause scourge are so good at stopping that.  Although terran can build 2-3 dropships sometimes, so maybe I shouldn't completely write off recall, one arbiter is about the cost of two dropships.  However, what's intriguing me is that there might be a cute tactic where you stasis the defiler defending a base before it can dark swarm.  Or let's say the zerg has a main and a nat, but only has a nydus canal in one of them.  You could stasis units coming down the ramp, and act a bit like an SC2 sentry.  And you know, the invisibility isn't terrible either.  If you make science vessels invisible, it's harder to hit them with scourge, and harder to land good plagues.  Obviously you just aim for the arbiter, but the arbiter can be further back, and isn't as vulnerable to scourge (takes 4 scourge hits to kill instead of 2, but nowhere near double the price).  Invisible marines are nice too.  To be clear, plague makes everything visible so this is a solvable problem, I don't think it's an auto-win.  But...ehh, arbiters sure sound like they have some nice tricks in this matchup.

---

Arbiter: 16

Interesting how almost all of the power of this unit is coming from terran--okay when used against terran by almost any race.  Monstrously good if given to terran.

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #965 on: October 12, 2023, 07:59:03 AM »
Archon

So ok, rating these as a stand-alone unit, like instant morphing two high templar straight out of a gateway.  This incidentially is something that is occasionally done in ASL games as a defence against mutalisk allins (a few links for this earlier in the topic)

PvP: 0/4.  While you might morph an archon after storming, I have not seen archons instant-morphed in this matchup.

PvT: 0/4.  Never an instant morph here.  Archons are almost entirely shields, so take full damage from both vultures and tanks.

PvZ: 1/4.  Very occasional, like haven't seen it this season but have seen it in previous seasons emergency tech against muta allins.

ZvZ: 3/4.  I think they have some potential.  They are "good" against zerglings in that they have splash.  Although...worth noting that an equivalent number of zerglings to archons is 16 zerglings, and 16 zerglings do win that fight if there's no other ground support, but you could provide ground support like your own zerglings (which would help a lot since archons leave zerglings at 5 HP).  They are also "good" against mutas.  In a heads up fight we're talking for a unit that only costs about twice as much, about triple the health and triple the damage with splash.  Though again, "good" is in quotation marks here, cause archons do have less range than mutas (2 range vs 3 range) and it's hard but ASL level players can sometimes micro mutas to not get hit by archons while shooting the archon.  It's very hard, and ASL level players do mess up occasionally (eating a lot of AoE damage) but possible.  We're also talking the equivalent gas investment of a citadel and a templar archives to unlock the tech, which is 300 gas.  And then another 300 gas to build the first archon.  So like...I don't think archons are an auto-win.  But I do think we would see them.  They are good enough against both mutas and lings.  They just dictate when and where muta engagements can happen.  Got an archon to retreat to?  Scourge can't chase you.  Got an archon to retreat to?  Enemy mutas can't moving shot chase you down.

ZvT: 0/4.  Ultras, if ultras were slow and didn't have armour and didn't deal full damage under dark swarm.  As always with units traded to zerg they'd become biological, so they're irradiate bait.  But unlike ultras they have range 2 so their AI would social distance themselves from the marines unless specifically microed otherwise.  The one thing I will say is that you can get these a lot sooner than ultras, like basically lair tech.  But they don't seem great against units with like...range.

ZvP: 0/4.  So I was initially enthusiastic.  Like, hey some splash damage against zealots, that doesn't sound too bad.  A unit that is not at all vulnerable to storm, that sounds pretty nice.  Then I ran a test of 4 zealots against one archon.  So...yeah, three zealots survived.  IDK, maybe there's a brilliant application I'm not thinking of, but I'm not sure what role this unit would play.

TvT: 0/4.  Melee unit to drop on tank is always a little bit interesting.  I did give ultralisks a 1/4 here.  But...not so much because they beat up tanks unusually well.  More that they beat up tanks acceptably, around as good as dropping your own tanks, but did quite well against goliaths cause of their armour, and quite well against vultures too (still bad against tanks that can shoot back).  Archons...don't have those properties.  Also, explicitly a unit that comes out of gateways, so would be using barracks upgrades.

TvP: 0/4.  Not great against zealots.  Terrible against dragoons.  Not enough range to fight off carriers.  Now, I did give ultras some credit in this matchup for being fast, and being a raiding party with vultures, could archons do this?  Ehh...they're barely faster than goliaths (3.5 speed goliaths, 3.7 speed archons) so no, I don't think they open up any particular opportunity there.

TvZ: 1/4. OK, there might be something here.  They're a barracks unit, so benefit from the right upgrades.  At full 3 attack upgrades they do one-shot lings even with +3 carapace.  They have splash, so they do things under dark swarm--not full functionality, mind you, but something.  One archon trades pretty evenly with one ultra.  They have the potential to muck up zerg's muta harass.  They have a lot of HP, so sticking them in front of a marine army wouldn't be bad.  OK, but like...now we need to consider, is it better to make 1 archon or like...5.3 firebats.  Firebats don't deal partial damage under dark swarm, they deal full damage under dark swarm.  Two firebats deal about the same damage to lings.  Four firebats deal about the same damage to hydras and lurkers.  So like...I think you only maybe go for archons over firebats as a response to ultras.  And maybe you could use them as early muta defence, although the zerg would just avoid the archon and hit elsewhere.  It's not nothing, but it wouldn't be much more often than how much protoss uses them vs zerg.

---

Archon 5/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #966 on: October 12, 2023, 08:38:31 AM »
Dark Archon

PvP: 0/4.  I do wonder if dark archons being a tech option causes us to see less of stuff like carriers, but regardless just haven't seen them in ASL.

PvT: 0/4.  Also haven't seen them in ASL in this matchup.

PvZ: 1/4.  They show up once or twice a season and I post about them when they do.

ZvZ: 3/4.  If you can land a Maelstrom on the enemy mutas, the game probably ends in your favour.  That said, you need to successfully get the tech (300 gas) research maelstrom (100 gas) morph a dark archon (200 gas) and then have a dark archon live for a full minute while it builds up energy without being sniped by lings or mutas.  I think that sounds doable, I think you just turtle with spores and spines for a bit.  But I think you could get broken during that time.

ZvT: 3/4.  This one is all about feedback.  Science vessels that are high on energy die instantly from full health.  Other science vessels just eat a lot of damage and get their energy stripped.  Dark Archons going to zerg would make them vulnerable to irradiate of course, but feedback actually outranges irradiate.  Maelstrom on Bio and mind control on battlecruisers also sounds fine.  Because they can just get irradiated I don't think it's an auto-win, but I do think Dark Archons would get made for science vessel sniping; build up a bunch of energy, then pop them out of a nydus and feedback a bunch of vessels.

ZvP: 2/4.  Sniping high templar is nice, but not as important as science vessels.  Vessels can live forever and continue to accumulate energy.  High templar don't really threaten to do that.  Still, denying storms, or making the protoss storm early from a further distance...I think this sounds like a reasonable pickup.

TvT: 1/4.  Don't think feedback matters.  Don't think maelstrom matters.  But...I will give a nod to mind control.  It's pretty efficient on a battlecruiser.  It's pretty efficient on a fully loaded dropship with either two tanks or four goliaths.  I'm not entirely confident one way or another, but I'll toss this a 1/4.

TvZ: 4/4.  Delete mutas midgame, and I think that just breaks zerg.  Feedback on defilers if they somehow don't instantly die from losing their whole muta flock.

TvP: 2/4.  If you can catch like...five zealots in a maelstrom, arguably the dark archon has paid for itself.  Potential for feedback on high templars too.

---

Dark Archon: 16

Same as arbiter, gets most of its power from adding a powerful spellcaster to races that can't access those right now.  But also, specifically feedback--not a lot of spellcasters are used against protoss, so there aren't a lot of opportunities to show off how good this spell is, but it's pretty good.  Also, a strong anti-muta tool for races that don't have corsair.  Just...a whole lot of "this unit would be good in other races".

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #967 on: October 12, 2023, 09:17:12 AM »
Dark Templar

PvP: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a decent cheese.

PvT: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a decent cheese.

PvZ: 2/4.  Yeah, it's a unit composition you can just go for.  Seen in less than half the ASL PvZ games I'd estimate, but certainly seen often enough.

ZvZ: 0/4.  No.  Overlords detect.

ZvT: 1/4.  Ehh...there is a cheese that seems very ineffective usually where zerg just makes lurkers, runs up to Terran's bunker/wall and burrows, and hopes terran doesn't have enough scans.  DTs probably better at that--potential to split up the DTs so not all of them are caught by the same scan, kill bunkers a bit faster.  In general though, Terran likes to make turrets to fend off mutas, and later on always has science vessels, so there's a very small window for DTs, and anything past a very early cheese lurkers probably better than DTs.

ZvP: 1/4.  So...protoss often has cannons at their front to defend hydra busts.  And when that's not an issue, they often have great scouting information cause corsairs fly through the zerg base.  And while protoss struggles with detection, they can have an observer over their army and it'll probably live--they just struggle to get observers close enough to spot lurkers due to lurker range.  There's maybe some potential for a cheese here where you research overlord drops and drop a DT in the main, but like...ok, that's bricked by making one cannon in the main or one observer, and we're talking a 600 gas investment (300 for DT tech, 200 for overlord drops, 100 for the actual DT).  Still, maybe it's something.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, I mean, pretty good unit in TvT.  Can just walk up to a tank and kill it a lot of the time.  No doubt some potential for cheese, detection usually isn't that early in this matchup, although spider mines can pop up and kill a DT.  Decent unit to drop out of a dropship onto a tank, even if they have detection--very high damage to a sieged tank that can't shoot back.

TvP: 1/4.  Maybe there's some kind of cheese that opens up, but man...it doesn't sound great.  So much gas and infrastructure invested into barracks units, just not really what you want to be doing in this matchup.  And if you delay it and just use DTs later, they'll have observers for mines and cannons in all their bases to stop vulture runbys.  Still, I don't want to completely write it off cause...yeah, I've seen protosses die to DT rushes in PvP, why not TvP if terran had DTs?  Terran can deny scouting, and are less likely to face early cannons than zerg.

TvZ: 1/4.  As always, DTs going to terran would become ranged units with a range of 1, so no they don't become the answer to dark swarm.  I...don't have a lot of faith in DTs for this matchup.  Does terran have a way to snipe all the overlords in all the zerg bases?  Yeah, wraiths.  But if the terran is doing that zerg's going to make spores anyway.  But where I do think DTs have some potential is as defensive units.  Zerg sends ultra ling to harass somewhere, but don't have overlords with them?  DTs clean that up.

---

Dark Templar: 13/36

OK, updating the overall list...

Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Marine/Medic: 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36

Dark Templar being below Dark Archon looks very funny, but again, other races seem to want Dark Archon a lot more than protoss.  And interestingly, other races seem to want dark templar less than protoss (other matchups more naturally flowing into detection).
« Last Edit: October 12, 2023, 09:22:31 AM by metroid composite »

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #968 on: October 12, 2023, 10:54:22 PM »
Funny thought--Medic restoration can clear irradiate.

On the one hand, maybe I shouldn't count that cause it's an interaction that just never comes up in TvT.  But...on the other hand, I'm counting stuff like feedback on high templar, which I haven't seen in PvP, so sure.

Medic/Marine goes up to 4/4 when sent to zerg against Terran.


Zergling: 29/36
Siege Tank: 29/36
Mutalisk: 29/36
Zealot: 29/36
Vulture: 28/36
Reaver: 27/36
Defiler: 23/36
Scourge: 23/36
Dragoon: 22/36
Corsair: 21/36
Overlord 20/36
Marine/Medic: 20/36
Hydralisk 19/36
Lurker 16/36
Dark Archon: 16/36
Arbiter: 16/36
Dark Templar: 13/36
Queen: 13/36
Drone: 12/36
Guardian: 7/36
Carrier: 7/36
Ultralisk: 6/36
Archon: 5/36
Devourer: 4/36
Scout: 2/36

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #969 on: October 13, 2023, 07:38:17 AM »
High Templar

So this will be specifically high templar without the archon morph, or at least assuming you don't morph archons until you've gotten storms off.

PvZ: 4/4.  Along with Zealot and Corsair probably in the top 3 most important units for this matchup.

PvT: 3/4.  You don't have to go templar tech, you could go into carriers and never get templar, of course, but templar are quite popular right now.

PvP: 2/4.  A lot of PvPs just end in the midgame before templar can get out.  But if it does go late, templar good.

TvT: 3/4.  Yeah, storm drops would be used.  Both on SCVs, and on tank lines.  I don't think it's such a better thing to drop that it breaks the matchup, but fairly confident people would build them.

TvP: 2/4.  Protoss units are high HP and mobile so not that vulnerable to storm.  But...storm drops are fine.  And storming carriers would be good.  Not sold on storming zealots and dragoons, but maybe that too.

TvZ: 4/4.  Storm is just such a good counter to dark swarm.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Mutas are a pretty well known counter to high templar--like zergs will build late mutas to snipe high templar.  It's not a 0, because a lategame hive tech scenario could justify storm.  But I think it would be pretty rare.

ZvT: 3/4.  Storm pretty good.  But you could maybe pre-split marines.  And high templar are the same cost as a defiler, and slower and more snipeable.  But still, would be good.  If you can first plague science vessels, and then later storm them, all the 1 health SVs would die, for example.  Storm also pretty good on marines.

ZvP: 1/4.  I'm...not really seeing a great application for high templar here.  Storm drops are tough to pull off cause you need overlord upgrades (and overlords would still be slow and easy to parry).  And there aren't a lot of slow protoss units that tend to stack on each other (no carriers in this matchup).  Not a 0, cause maybe you can catch some clumped units in some specific scenario, and pretty good when used on units that have already been plagued, but that's an ultra-lategame scenario.

---

High Templar: 24/36

Interestingly 1 point ahead of defilers.

metroid composite

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #970 on: October 13, 2023, 08:00:23 AM »
Observer

Well, this is going to be a funny one.

PvP: 2/4.  Yeah, people make a few sometimes.  Obviously the thing to build if you're worried about DTs.

PvT: 3/4.  Pretty much always made, but in small quantities, and you're not completely dead to mines without them.

PvZ: 3/4.  There's games that end before observers, but if the game gets to midgame with lurkers, of course you get them.

ZvZ: 0/4.  No.

ZvT: 0/4.  Terran don't even use cloaked units in this matchup for the most part, and even if they do, overlords are fine.

ZvP: 1/4.  Okay, I can actually think of a niche for these, and it's when specifically protoss is going DT+Sair.  Killing all your overlords with sairs, and spore colonies with DTs.  Yeah, well how they gonna kill your observer?  Gottem.  (They technically can still kill it, by the way, but doing so involves spotting the shimmer, and then putting a corsair on top of the spot where the observer is, and using the splash.  But still...if the observer sits still it's hard to spot).

TvT: 0/4.  There's not that much detection to do.  In terms of map spotting with an invisible unit, that's what widow mines already do.  Maybe there's a world where you want to stick an observer in their main to look at their production.  But like...you have scan, so the impact of one person having access to that play and the other not sounds very not impactful.

TvP: 1/4.  You know what?  A mobile detector that builds out of a factory, meaning you don't need to build a starport and a control tower and a science facility?  Yeah, that probably gets built every once in a while cause it fits nicer into some midgame builds.  (You'd still need to make an observatory of course, but again that's not so wild of an investment).

TvZ: 0/4.  Competing with the best unit in this matchup, so no.

---

Observer: 10/36

This is a pretty extreme case of "unit scores better within its own race, cause other races just have redundancy for that functionality".

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #971 on: October 13, 2023, 07:17:01 PM »
Probe

PvP: 2/4.  It's a worker, it scouts, it occasionally proxies.

PvT: 3/4.  I'll give probe a little bit of extra weight in this matchup, cause the harass it does to early building structures when scouting, as well as gas stealing, as well as denying terran scouts, as well as being part of the initial zealot attack, are actually pretty substantial.

PvZ: 2/4.  Mostly scouting, sometimes participates in a zealot attack.

TvT: 2/4.  This is probably not much worse than PvT, minus maybe gas stealing potential and being part of initial zealot attacks.  But I gave drone 2/4 here, so being consistent...

TvP: 2/4.  Close enough to same as drone.

TvZ: 2/4.  Close enough to same as drone.

ZvP: 1/4.  Getting the shield regeneration could matter a very small amount

ZvT: 1/4.  Once again, shield regeneration could matter a tiny bit.

ZvZ: 1/4.  Drone scouts are not really used in this matchup.  Using drones to defend early pool rushes is a thing, and I guess...sure, maybe if you're going hatch first you make some probes cause they fight marginally better against an early pool.

---

Probe: 16/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #972 on: October 13, 2023, 07:41:02 PM »
Shuttle

PvP: 4/4.  It's a core part of reaver shuttle dragoon, which is the unit composition seen basically every game.

PvT: 3/4.  Can you go without shuttles in this matchup?  Or low shuttles?  Shuttles are pretty popular right now, but yes you can go carriers.

PvZ: 2/4.  Shuttles aren't seen every game vs zerg, but shuttle reaver is still a thing that happens from time to time.  Storm drops too.

TvT: 2/4.  I mean...mineral only dropships that are a bit faster once upgraded (although a bit less durable and slower when not upgraded) and can be built out of factories?  Yeah, these would get used.  Dropships require a starport with a control tower (gross).  That said, I'm looking at the kind of stuff I rated 3/4, like carriers and dragoons and zealots and zerglings, and I don't think upgrading from dropships to shuttles reaches quite the level of adding those units to a terran's arsenal.

TvP: 2/4.  Making a dropship and putting vultures in the protosses base is a build.  And it gets way better if you can make a shuttle out of a factory.  But it's a cheese, the protoss can guard against it, and eventually it won't matter.

TvZ: 0/4.  You are fine having a starport with a control tower in this matchup, and don't build a lot of dropships anyway, and would probably prefer the higher speed and durability over unupgraded shuttles.

ZvZ: 0/4.  Yeah, even in lategame hive scenarios I don't really imagine drops mattering.

ZvT: 1/4.  So...what's the use case here?  Zerg does one of those pre-muta lurker busts, except they get a shuttle and drop the lurkers in the main?  Eh...I don't want to completely write that off, that sounds like it has at least some potential.

ZvP: 3/4.  Dropping lurkers into the main of protoss is already a thing that can be done with slow overlords.  Furthermore, hydra busts making tons of cannons at the front?  No problem, elevator into the main.  Does it break the matchup?  Well...I'm imagining shuttles would be lair tech (overlord drops are) and usually hydra busts don't make a lair.  So I don't think we're quite at the level of "protoss can't win", but it is scary for sure.

---

Shuttle: 17/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #973 on: October 13, 2023, 08:23:42 PM »
That completes the last protoss unit.  Now to be thorough with Terran.

Battlecruiser

TvT: 2/4.  It's not an every map thing.  Some maps battlecruisers aren't ever really made cause the maps don't evenly get split by siege tanks.  But they're good.

TvP: 0/4.

TvZ: 1/4.  Yeah, I mean, they're good in some situations.  But they're really not seen that often at ASL level play.

PvP: 0/4.  I assume just too vulnerable to protoss spells--mind control, stasis, even feedback.  Like I was thinking about giving them 1/4 for Yamato, but nah.

PvT: 2/4.  Are carriers better for this matchup?  Yep.  But...battlecruisers have less build time and come out fully operational.  Carriers pop out with zero interceptors.  Battlecruisers also a little bit cheaper than a carrier with 8 interceptors.  I think maybe the first two things you build out of a starport should maybe be battlecruisers before switching to full carrier.  It's a bit like that time scouts were built before carriers, except actually a good unit.

PvZ: 0/4.  I'm not really feeling it for this matchup.  7 hydras will kill a BC.  That's not necessarily a problem in TvZ, since zerg may not have hydras.  But ZvP, yeah, there will be hydras.

ZvZ: 0/4.  They are cost effective against mutas, and do reasonably well against scourge.  That said, they struggle against a lot of hive tech.  Devourers acid spores are awful for them.  Defiler Plague and dark swarm is bad for them.  Although they can yamato one unit under dark swarm.  I dunno, are lategame zergs really going to switch to mass BCs over mass mutas?  They are so much slower, and get countered harder by enemy hive tech.

ZvT: 0/4.  What did I give carriers in this matchup?  1/4?  Yeah, I think BCs are probably worse.  Once irradiated the carrier basically has to go on an offensive, and the terran should probably retreat from that giving space to the zerg.  But BCs being slower than carriers and having less ground damage...just ehh...makes the vulnerability to irradiate so much worse.

ZvP: 0/4.  I'm going to continue to assume that building capital ships against protoss is bad because it's not really done in any matchup.  Maybe it's bad because of mind control, or maybe it's just that protoss will have dragoons anyway by that point and won't be that scared of BCs.

---

Battlecruiser: 5/36

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Re: Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)
« Reply #974 on: October 13, 2023, 09:23:33 PM »
Dropship

TvT: 4/4.  They are a core part of every TvT that doesn't end early in cheese.

TvP: 2/4.  You can drop vultures in the main.  It's an okay play.

TvZ: 2/4.  There's often a few drops done after thinning out mutas but before hive tech is fully established.

ZvZ: 0/4.

ZvT: 0/4.  I gave the shuttle some credit in this matchup because it wouldn't require a spire.  Presumably dropships would require a spire, and I think that just means that the terran will already be making turrets and defending.

ZvP: 1/4.  Drops that don't require lengthy overlord researches still intrigue me here, though.

PvP: 0/4.  So dropships are a bit tankier and a bit faster out of the building.  But they'd require a stargate which just isn't made or at least not made early in this matchup.

PvT: 0/4.  The one application I can think of is that if you're going carriers, then you can make a dropship out of the stargate while the fleet beacon is building and the stargate would otherwise be sitting inactive.  But...I still don't think this is a great idea, just because this would announce to the terran that you have a stargate--free scouting information for them.

PvZ: 2/4.  Yes.  You often have an idle stargate in this matchup.  Your robo is often overworked--needed for observers, reavers, and shuttles.  Offloading the shuttle production to the stargate would be pretty nice.  Not something you'd do every game, you don't make shuttles every game, and not super high impact, it just gives you a bit more production, but still, it's nice.

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Dropship: 11/36