Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)

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Starcraft 2

So...thinking about infestor brood lord...

It has a really high cost per population.  If we just add up the gas and mineral pop of an army and divide by the population....

SCV/Probe/Drone: 50/pop
Zealot/Marine/Hellion/Zergling/Roach: 50/pop
Marauder: 62/pop
Sentry/hydralisk/queen: 75/pop
Thor/Ultralisk/Colossus/Banshee: 83/pop
Stalker/Immortal: 87/pop
Siege Tank: 91/pop
Reaper/Muta/Medivac/high templar/archon/observer/warp prism/mothership: 100/pop
Viking: 112/pop
Battlecruiser/Carrier: 117/pop
Dark Templar/phoenix/Corruptor/Infestor: 125/pop
Void Ray: 133/pop
Brood Lord: 137/pop
Ghost/Baneling/Raven: 150/pop
Overseer: infinity/pop

Point is, if you take 120 pop of Brood Lord Infestor corruptor, and face it off against 120 pop of, oh, let's say Stalker Colossus, there's going to be a significant army value lead.  Like...15000 army value to 11000 army value.  Terran can get away with saccing a bunch of SCVs in favour of orbitals, but even if terran has 170 pop of, let's say a mech army, that's still only about 14000 army value.

Funny thing about this composition, with the exception of the infestor, I don't necessarily feel units in this composition are incredibly cost efficient, but they are very supply efficient.  I also find it interesting that units which are being transitioned to lategame to fight this also tend to be on the expensive side for the cost.  Raven Battlecruiser, for instance.  Mothership, Archon, Carrier for toss.

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Natural Selection 2

ok, so like...this game has damage types:

http://www.unknownworlds.com/ns2/wiki/index.php/Damage_types

Normal damage, which the -vast- majority of attacks (early on) qualify as, deals half-damage to armor.  This means you should generally value every point of armor about twice as much as every point of HP.

Near as I can tell, all the damage types where the interaction with armor is not specified (like structural) maintain the same 2:1 ratio.

As for some others...see that bit about Corrode "Deals damage to structures only and double damage to armor."  The double damage to armor is actually not true at all--at least for Bile Bomb.  It deals half damage to armor just like everything else in the game I've tested.

As for "light damage" that "every point of armor absorbs 4 points of damage" well...I only tested Xenocide, but it also seems to be the same 2:1 ratio.



So...basically, when calculating durability, just do

HP + Armor*2

Everything I've tested seems to follow that formula.


Now, what DOES seem to be working as described is stuff that only hurts buildings/only hurts players, or deals bonuses to one or both of these groups.  Lerk spores don't hurt buildings.  Bile Bomb is unremarkable against players, but about 300 DPS against buildings.

Speaking of corrode damage, I don't think the upgraded whip has the stats claimed in the wiki; bombard seems to deal more like 600 damage than 1200 damage, which given the 6 second cooldown is not that impressive (about 100 DPS).

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Plants vs Zombies

So...when going full on econ whore (like...sunflower + imitater sunflower + twin sunflower), what should you use for your early defence when that first zombie appears in a lane.

There are a few options:

Potato Mine: costs 25 sun, must be planted 3 squares in advance of the defence square.  (Takes 15 seconds to arm).
Squash: costs 50 sun.  Can be planted after the zombie has entered the defence square.
Peashooter or one a dozen variations on peashooter like cabage pult: costs 100 sun, must be planted 2 squares in advance of the defending square, but actually leaves you with something built.

So...between Potato Mine and Squash, if you reinvest the 25 sun you could have spent on a potato mine into sunflowers, will you have 50 sun by the time the zombie arrives?  Well...sunflowers produce sun roughly every 20 seconds, and tend to produce a sun shortly after being planted, so...the 25 sun you invested in the sunflower will probably have been reimbursed or will shortly be reimbursed by the time you have to use the squash.  Which leaves another 25 you have to spend on the squash.  So...your income doesn't save you significantly when you hold off and squash.

Overall, these two are very balanced.

Peashooter vs Potatomine/Squash...It depends how soon after the first threat in the lane the second threat in the lane comes.  If it's about 30 seconds, then peashooter is roughly break-even.  I want to say that approximately after the first zombie, one zombie will spawn in a random lane every 20 seconds, so most of the time this is not worth-it.

Special mention should be made of the Cattail, though; 2 homing DPS for 250 sun.  Expensive enough that potato mines and squashes should still be the the opener (if zombies are spawning every 20 seconds, spending 25 on a potato mine and reinvesting 225 in sunflowers that will pay you back in 20 seconds seems like the better play).  But increase zombie frequency even a little bit, and cattails become the obvious best play.  (Cattails are pretty OP).

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Upgrade Complete:

I'm assuming stats haven't changed since I last messed around with this game.  Which is to say: guns provide the most DPS, but there's a maximum number of them that can affect a target.  Missiles home in on the furthest target.  Lightning sucks.  In general, buying an extra of a weapon does more than upgrading.

Messed around with the lowest number of ship components needed to beat the game.  Managed to do it with 4 given a fair amount of retrying levels.  Setup was guns on the bottom corners, missiles on the top corners.  3 ship components really does not seem possible; tried all configurations of level 5 gun/missile on wave 20; all of them lost in a way that made it seem not close at all.

Beating wave 20 with a 30,000 cost ship is still possible (went 4 L1 missiles, 5 L2 guns, 3 L1 guns).  Not sure if less than that is possible.

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Starcraft 2.

So like...I saw some zergs streaming, completely wiping out a toss army (killing the mothership, colossus, etc).  All the toss had left was like a warp in of stalkers; maybe 20.  The Zerg had a good 12 or so brood lords left.  And bear in mind that the player in question was trying to win games quickly to grind ladder points against weaker opponents.  So anyway, the conversation went something like "we can't engage that can we?"  "No, we need to retreat the brood lords back to the spine crawlers."  And I was like "wat."

After a little bit of testing, turns out yes: 20 stalkers beats 10 brood lords, despite BLs costing a lot more, and being "anti ground specialists".  This was a little surprising to me.  Like...the equivalent Terran airforce, 20 banshees, destroys 20 stalkers.  (Actually, it's a little cheaper to get 20 banshees than 10 brood lords, but on the flip side they cost 60 supply instead of 40).  The equivalent anti-ground siege units...10 colossi destroy 20 stalkers; 20 siege tanks can a-move in tank mode through 20 stalkers.

Obviously there's other stuff that makes brood lords good, like messing with pathfinding, and long distance sieging from empty space, but it's amazing how weak the stats are on this "OP" unit.

In the mean time, Void Rays.  Zerg's been nerfed a couple of times recently (with the infestor--notably infested terrans no longer get upgrades) and I started wondering...wait, how do zergs fight 3/3 Void Rays now?  And note that the unit has to win on an equal supply basis, not equal cost basis.  Infestors...kinda failed in my tests.  Which is to say, at full energy, they still win, but at 75 energy, void rays can a-move through that amount of 0/0 infested terrans.  Hydras failed; not enough value for the supply; three hydras just don't beat two Void Rays.  Corruptors failed (void rays deal bonus damage and can charge up on cors; cors don't deal bonus damage back).  Queens......succeeded!  By a landslide.  A-moved queens off-creep with no transfuse energy won consistently against a-moved void rays (at least when it was 15 queens vs 10 VRs).

And there you have it....

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Heart of the Swarm

So like...the current status of...stuff.

Mothership Core:
cost: 100/100
HP+shield: 190
DPS: higher than a Stalker or a Mutalisk (but only hits ground!)
Build time: 30s (makes you miss out building probes, but it's pretty fast; faster than orbital command)

I'd probably build these even if it didn't have all the spells.

Spells:
Make nexus into a 13 range photon cannon for 60 seconds.  (60 seconds?  Really?  I watched someone try to harass with mutalisks, went to one base, it got photoned, so went and harassed the other two; came back to the first, overcharge was still ongoing...).
Mass Recall: Protoss can move out on the map and not be scared of counters.

This comes across as mostly a redesign of the race, making it so that toss doesn't need to worry about pretty much anything earlygame (provided they don't get killed before getting 100 gas and a cybernetics core--6 pool might still be viable).  But yeah, I've seen nydus play get shut down by recall->overcharge.  Harass strategies are a lot weaker.

Spells:
Time Warp
Ah, Starjeweled's Time Bomb.  This is...a really good spell.  Like...it's a lot like what Vortex would be if there was no archon toilet.  Cut your opponent's army damage in half, and mess with their micro/retreat options.  It's like...if guardian shield cut damage in half instead of -2, and messed with army positioning (making your opponent kiteable/unable to run).  (Also, stacks with Guardian Shield).

So like...Time Warp just makes protoss armies better.  It was moved from the Oracle to the Mothership Core because Blizzard realized the spell was really freaking good, and thinks that maybe restricting to only one unit that can cast it might prevent it from being broken (because this worked so well with Vortex).


The existence of Time Warp just makes all pressure better.  For instance, Sentry Immortal allin, which was barely holdable as-is, add time warp and...no.  Zerg can't go 3 base and expect not to die.  (People keep saying 2 base zerg is the standard, and that's why).



Oracle:
Ok, well, since all the fancy stuff has been removed from it leaving it with two vision abilities and one damage ability it's...basically a Banshee!

Compared to a Banshee it...
Costs 150/150 instead of 150/100.
Has 160 HP instead of 140
Has 4 range instead of 6
Has 29 DPS light, 17 DPS armored instead of Banshee's 19 DPS
Has 3.375 speed instead of 2.75 speed.
Needs to spend energy in order to attack at all.
Can't cloak (but can detect temporarily >_>)

Ok, so...definitely worse than banshees overall, but like...better in some important areas (like DPS against workers, like movement speed).  I actually really like this addition; it's a protoss unit that isn't just a deathball addition.  Granted, it does ok in deathballs against terran, because it shreds marines.  But still, a speedy harass unit for toss is pretty cool.  Seems kinda clunky that it needs to cast a spell just to attack, but whatever.



Tempest:
Seems really OP.
Like...remember my testing of brood lords above, where 20 stalkers kill 10 brood lords comfortably?  Quick calculations tell me 20 stalkers do not kill 10 Tempests.  Oh, and Tempests are cheaper than their brood lord cousins.
Tempests are faster than BLs.
Tempests have 50% more range.
Tempests hit air AND ground.

Like...I'm not even sure 10 vikings beat 5 tempests (it's pretty close).  And these units have the same supply, and close to the same cost.  Seriously, WTF.

Oh, you know what else Tempests need?  Let's have them deal triple their normal damage to air massive.  Like...ok, I can see the design decision behind this bonus--change lategame PvP so it's not all colossus all the time.  But the splash on the metagame is massive; don't make brood lords against Toss, ever, except maybe as a narrow timing attack.  If you were considering a battlecruiser transition against P, don't.  It is kind-of insulting that Tempests are better against air-massive than Corruptors (like...across the board better.  For the cost of two corruptors, Tempests get more than twice the HP and more than twice the massive DPS, and more than twice the range).

Like...I doublechecked another website to make sure these stats are right.  Seriously, WAT.

Even without the bonus to massive, my calculations suggest that Tempests would be...actually quite possibly cost effective against Carriers (mostly thanks to 2 base armor; Carriers are bad against that; also, the whole "being much cheaper" thing).

Void Ray
Instead of charging up, there's an ability you activate.  Which...simultaneously makes them less noob-friendly, and lowers their skill ceiling; not sure how I feel about this.  On the flip side, they're finally 4 supply (they spent quite a while at ridiculous amount of army value per supply.  Not quite ghost/baneling level, but I believe they were third; being maxed on void rays was really scary).



Terran

Hellbats
It's a roach!  With 2 range instead of 4, no speed upgrade, which deals 30 damage to light instead of 20, and has splash.  Ok, and 10 less HP too, but honestly they're a light unit so more durable in practice.

Like...what is up with attempts at giving Terran Roaches in HotS.  First Warhounds now Hellbats.  Hellbats are even biological!  At least these ones are properly 2 supply, and not 7 range, and trade some speed and range for AoE.

Although, funny story, these were supposed to be anti-zealot tech for TvP, but hellbat drops are mostly dominating TvT  earlygame instead.

Tanks
They don't require siege mode research!  Because, clearly, you should need to spend 400/400 on Hydras before you can use them, but Siege Tanks should require no upfront investment.

Widow Mine
You know what strategy needs buffing?  Apparently mech, especially early in the game when we don't want to force poor meching players to tech to thors or build out of their barracks in order to hit air.  (At least, this is the justification I found on the internet for widow mines existing)
Cost-wise they're...a roach (75/25 and 2 supply).  If you drop them in a mineral line, they need to kill...two probes to be worth-it (and they deal 40 splash, which should one-shot probes and drones).  Dunno, seems like it's not hard to make these cost effective.  If they snipe one baneling, they're close to paying for themselves.  (In fact, they cost only slightly more than a baneling, and deal 40 splash damage compared to Baneling's 20, not to mention a bunch of singletarget damage).  You can't really roll them into a frontal attack.  Well...wait, that's not true; three widow mines to kill a supply depot wall.  These things are going to be hilarious rush tools in 2v2.

Overall fairly unique as a unit, though.  A burrow unit with 5 range means there are solid ways of countering it without taking damage.

Medivac
Nerfed back in 2010 to be slower; now unnerfed to be faster again, cause mech was given lots of toys and they wanted to give bio something I guess.

Thor
So...they no longer have energy, making them not feedback bait (long overdue).  Now they get high impact payload which takes away their splash, and makes them deal 24 damage with a cooldown of 2.  Which is...kinda bad.  Like...ok, against nonlight it's 12 DPS instead of 8 DPS.  And the gap is larger if your target has armor (some capital ships have 2 armor, so like...against 2 armor it's 11 DPS rather than 5.3 DPS.  Hmm...honestly, yeah that's useful, but Thors were usually able to hit two targets with the air splash, and if you're going mech your mech upgrades would often be ahead of air armor upgrades, so it's not like "OMG, thors are twice as good against brood lords now" or anything like that.  They have a nice option which you probably use, and actually thor vs brood lord fights will probably become more fun to watch (since brood lords have a slower firing rate, and thus should stutter step, but if they stutter step on one control group they might clump making them AoE bait....  Sounds fun to watch).

Reaper
Wat.
So...they're mutalisks now; which means they need large groups to do even respectable damage.  But they also don't hit air.  Like...I don't really get it.  Terran has banshees.  One Banshee costs less than three Reapers and deals the same damage and hits the same targets and has more range and has...a little less HP and no passive regen.  Reapers are like...an earlygame scout and not much more at the moment.



Zerg

Hydralisk
They're still kinda awful.  Like...ok, 100/100 for a hydra den.  150/150 for range.  150/150 for speed.  The speed only upgrades their speed off-creep (and leaves them still slower than stalkers and stim bio and speed roaches; it's actually a kind-of marginal upgrade now that I look at it; roach speed is a bigger buff, works off-creep, and costs less).

Ultralisk
They still have less ground DPS than Thors, but at least they are no longer inverse hellions but get to be an all-purpose unit.  In practice when I've watched them used, they don't come across as super powerful.  People counter them with Marauders and Immortals, and those fights haven't even changed (actually, they've gotten fractionally worse for Ultras as Ultras only get +3 per upgrade now, when it used to be +2/+4).  Attacking into an army with five immortals and a bunch of zealots  with ultras doesn't end really any better--the ultras still die.  I will, however, note that Ultras are almost straight up better than Roaches now.  Same speed.  5x the DPS for 5x the cost.  Maybe not quite 5x the durability...but they're a lot less vulnerable to splash and have more armor, so certainly close to 5x durability.  6 supply instead of 10 for equivalent resource investment.  Although, granted, they're still not ranged, so you can't stack multiple rows like roaches.

That said, as I understand the current metagame, ZvZ and ZvP tend to be about dealing with an air force, and ultras can't shoot up, so they'll probably still be an oddity outside of ZvT.  ZvT they'll be...a more serious option, instead of just "that tech switch if brood lords aren't working."

Infestor
Honestly probably situational now, which is fine.  Fungal used to be decent to good against everything, and absolutely disgusting murder against marines and banelings.  Now it's probably bad against lots of stuff, but still good against marines and banelings.  This does leave zerg with rather trashy antiair, though.

Mutalisk
They got buffed in speed and significantly in regeneration, fungal was made dodgeable, and now mutas apparently dominate ZvZ.  Act surprised.

Swarm Host
So...they cost the same as two hydralisks.  They spawn two locusts.  Locusts have literally hydralisk DPS (and 3 range, and can't shoot up, and less HP; but still: basically you're spawning free hydras).

So like...thought experiment.  One Zerg makes Swarm Hosts.  The other makes Roaches and an overseer.  The Roaches kill the locusts in...let's say 8 seconds (it's probably less).  Which leaves 13 seconds before the next locusts would spawn.

But Swarm Hosts needs to take zerg the distance--this is the unit that Zergs really need to get value out of to match the buffs that Terran and Protoss got.  (Well...this or muta, really; I don't have a ton of faith in the hydra or ultra buffs).  Can swarm hosts deliver?  Actually...maybe.

At least in ZvP, protoss was never too keen on fighting a pack of hydras without colossus.  Combine with antiair and an overseer to snipe observers.  If they try to come out and fight your antiair, well they have a pack of locusts to get through, which is lot like moving a toss army through a group of hydras--not ideal.  Ideally get Corruptors to deal with the obvious colossus transition (and these can also be used to snipe observers).

In ZvT, they seem pretty awful against bio (bio hasn't been buffed too much, though, so that matchup should be pretty similar).  But they also seem like they could be solid against mech.  Widow Mines they trigger for free.  They can chip a little at armies with tanks in them (without taking horrible damage).  They can kite thors (and most of mech, really; release locusts, reposition, release locusts, reposition).  Hellions probably cause them trouble.  But in general, Mech finds moving out awkward, and Swarm Hosts are siege units, which means they like opponents who don't move out.

Viper
Ever since the announce trailer this has been the coolest-sounding unit in HotS, and not much has changed.

There...honestly is nothing I can compare it to in WoL.  It's a spellcaster that can't deal damage or kill units on its own.  Such a thing does not exist in WoL.  Closest analogue would be the Sentry, which can isolate one unit with forcefields (kinda like abduct) and use guardian shield (kinda like blinding cloud).  Except Abduct works on massive and air units.  And Blinding Cloud shuts down like...Planetary Fortresses and Siege Tanks.

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Heart of the Swarm.

So...ZvT seems to be in a strange spot these days.

I feel like Zerg is quite a bit weaker in the midgame--can't really deal with MMM+Hellbat.  Like...five hellbats in an MMM composition mean that you can't use ling baneling, and need to use a roach or roach hydra army.  you just can't surround an MMM army with a few hellbats with ling bane, because Hellbats exist to not be surrounded.  Simultaneously, widow mines can mostly shut down muta harass, and infestors are a lot weaker.

At the same time, I feel like the mid lategame swings pretty strongly towards zerg.  Ultras are much better against...really bio or mech, and Vipers are actually a pretty big deal, shutting down siege tank lines.  I guess the answer to Vipers is vikings, but Vipers do hit much, much sooner than Brood Lords, and you don't want to commit to vikings if your opponent shows up with surprise ultras.

But then the ultra lategame, where you have Terran with Raven Battlecruiser Viking Siege Tank...there was literally no army zerg could build against this in Wings of Liberty.  Corruptors got seeker missiled and cleaned up pretty fast.  If zerg tries to poke close at all, they eat a yamato.  And so on.  I've watched matches were Terrans had no mining bases and zergs had three defended by 40 spore crawlers, and Terran won.  It seems like this will only get worse in heart of the swarm, with 10 range seeker missile, faster battlecruisers.  Although there's two potential game changers: predictive fungals (and longer range fungals) let infestors hit fungal on, probably vikings, from further away.  And Viper Abduct could slowly kill the battlecruisers (if the Terran is on his micro you should definitely lose a viper in the process, but trading a viper for a BC is fantastic).

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Puppylisk's guide to 2v2

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=400724#16

It's kinda neat, because I see a lot of builds for zerg that are pretty close to ones I figured out on my own.

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Probably should have linked this earlier but...

Remember this?  Highest finite combo from an MtG deck that can't go infinite?

http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/phpconversion.php

Well we've been updating the combo this week, and are in the process of going through new cards:

http://community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/75842/19003230/Most_turn-1_damage_in_a_deck_that_cant_go_infinite?post_num=70#529619129

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Probably should have linked this earlier but...

Remember this?  Highest finite combo from an MtG deck that can't go infinite?

http://www.rpgdl.com/metroidcomposite/phpconversion.php

Well we've been updating the combo this week, and are in the process of going through new cards:

http://community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/75842/19003230/Most_turn-1_damage_in_a_deck_that_cant_go_infinite?post_num=70#529619129

Aaand combo update complete.  This time Jolt135 a.k.a. Sadistic Mystic wrote the article, since I wrote it last time:

http://soniccenter.org/sm/mtg/megacombo.html

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Ok, I've been getting some suggestions that since the EU version of starjeweled is 1.9, I should download the EU version and see if any of the stats are different.

First, after some searching, here's a way that actually works to switch editor regions

FFS.

Its a bloody registry change ... go make a reg file so you can 1 click update the registry.

HKEY_USERS\xxx\Software\Blizzard Entertainment\StarCraft II Editor\Preferences

Singapore = Physical location of SEA server

"BattleNetHost"="sg.logon.battle.net"

"BattleNetHost"="us.logon.battle.net"

"BattleNetHost"="eu.logon.battle.net"

Only works for the editor, don't try be a smart ass and change it for the game, won't work.

And yeah, I figured this out myself, no one told me how. Its how I quickly upload to all servers.

If you don't have a battlenethost field (like me) just make one; done.


Now on to the stats...

Marine
30 HP
0 Armor (Biological, Light)
damage: 4
cool: 1.5
range: 4
(unchanged)

Zealot
70 HP
3 Armor (Biological, Light)
Movement: 2.25 + 0.5 (charge) --most units are 2.25
damage: 8 (+2 biological)
cool: 1.2 (x2 attacks)
range: 0.1
(unchanged)

Roach:
145 HP
1 Armor (Armored Biological)
Regeneration Rate: 2 HP/sec (most zerg units regenerate 0.2734 HP/sec)
Damage: 16 (+6 light)
cool: 2
Range 4
(Possibly changed...?  I should check if the regeneration rate exists on NA)

Ghost:
100 HP
0 Armor (Biological Psionic)
Damage: 8 (+12 Light)
Range: 6
Cool: 1.5
Snipe: 40 damage for 25 energy (starting energy of 50)
(identical)

Hydralisk:
110 HP
0 Armor (Biological Light)
Damage: 8 (+2 armored)
Range: 5
Cool: 0.4
(identical)

Mutalisk:
100 HP
3 Armor (Biological, Light)
Movement: 3.75 (most units are 2.25)
Damage: 30 + 20 + 10
Range 5  (3 range between glaive bounces)
Cool: 1.5246
(identical)

Banshee
125 HP
3 Armor (Light Mechanical)
Movement: 2.75 (most units are 2.25)
Damage: 15 (+15 Armored)
Range: 6
Cool: 1.4 (x2 attacks)

Siege Tank
100 HP
1 Armor (Armored, Mechanical)
Damage: 18 (+40 structure)
Range: 11
Cool: 2
(identical)

Immortal
250 HP, 2 shield
3 Armor (Armored, Mechanical)
0 Shield Regeneration (Hardened shields reduce damage to 1)
Damage: 35 (+55 Structure)
Range: 5
Cool: 1.8
(identical)

Colossus
400 HP
3 Armor (Armored, Mechanical, Massive)
Damage: 15 (+25 light)
Range: 7
Cool: 2.2 (x2 attacks)
(identical)

Ultralisk
500 HP
5 Armor
Life Regeration: 2 HP/Sec  (most zerg units regenerate 0.2734 HP/sec)
Damage: 16 (+52 Armored)
Range: 1
Cool: 0.861
(Again, not sure if the life regeneration is in the NA version; that's something to check)

Photon Cannon
800 HP
3 Armor
Damage: 20 (Fun trivia: this is literally the only damage value that was not modified from SC2...)
Range: 10.5
Cool: 0.8
(identical)

Base:
400 HP
1 Armor
0.3984 Life regeneration rate
(identical)

Spells: look similar.  My previously posted calculations about Heal Wave may be incorrect; I was guessing that divide by 16 was correct, but upon closer inspection I think it's actually multiply by 0.05625, which means the values would actually be:

1st: 270 HP
2nd: 162 HP
3rd: 97 HP
4th: 58 HP
5th: 35 HP


Ok...let me check if those regeneration rates on Roaches and Ultras are in the NA version......yes, yes they are.  Ok, so everything's identical.

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So...my office is going to be doing an MtG draft.  Now, the upcomming draft format takes one pack from each new Ravnica set.  The first two sets were drafted in isolation (each one having 5/10 two-colour pairs) this one will be drafted in combination (the third set has all 10 colour pairs, and will be drafted with the first two sets).

So that's cool and everything, but as my coworker said "that's not how we roll here"--they tend to draft 3x of the newest set so that they open more packs.  lol

So...how degenerate is triple Dragon's Maze going to be?  Well...it was designed to slow the limited format down.  In the first two sets, the expectation was that people would play 2-colour decks; when all three sets are drafted together, it's not reasonable to play less than three just because some 2-colour pairings aren't supported in some packs.  As a result, they made the first two sets faster, and Dragon's Maze slower.  How much slower?

http://puremtgo.com/articles/ars-arcanum-dragons-maze-limited-primer-part-i

In this chart we see the average Converted Mana Cost, the average power and toughness, and most importantly, we see the average differential between power and toughness. The converted mana cost is definitely on the high side, coming in even higher than Avacyn Restored. Furthermore, it has the highest average toughness of any set for which I have done this type of analysis. But the most telling statistic is the power and toughness differential. As I’ve mentioned, this is the difference between the power and the toughness, and it is a key indicator for the speed of the format. Whenever we have a format with a P/T Differential that is either a small negative number, or a positive number, we end up having an aggressive format, like with GTC or AVR. When you see a large negative differential, you end up having a much slower format. The number -0.5 is the biggest negative differential that I have seen in any of the sets I have analyzed. The best set to compare this to would be something like Rise of the Eldrazi.

If we add up all of this data, along with the fact that this is a multicolor format that will almost certainly require you to play three colors, as well as a cycle of ten cluestones to ramp decks to higher mana during the midgame, we are certainly looking at a very slow format. If we were drafting DGM all by itself, it would be the slowest format in years. I suspect that even after adding GTC and RTR, that this will still be the slowest format since Rise of the Eldrazi.

Sounds like incredibly slow.

The most common P/T in the set is 2/4, with a cycle of commons in every colour at that P/T, and various random rares also sharing that P/T.  Thing about 2/4 vs 2/4 is that you can't attack--two 2/4s can gang block one 2/4 and kill it without suffering losses.

The mechanical themes in Dragon's Maze...so...technically it has all the mechanics of Return to Ravnica and Gatecrash.  Realistically, though, it has one common and one rare with the guild mechanic per guild.  So...if you're thinking "slow format you say?  I should build around Extort!"  Well.....good luck with that, as one out of every six packs will have an extort card.  (10 commons per pack, 60 commons in total, 1 of them has extort).

So...what is the mechanical theme of this set then?

My first answer would be...gates!

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368996
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369046

There is a cycle of 5 gatekeepers, each of which require two gates (a type of land) to get a CIP effect.  And most of them have a pretty solid payoff (like...at or just below constructed playable if you do have the gates; pretty good for a 4-mana common creature).

So how hard is two gates to set up?  Almost every pack will have a gate in it, which means that each drafter will get an average of 3 gates in their deck.  If you want to consistently set up two gates by like...turn 7 or so, you really need about 6 gates in your 40 card deck.  So...you'd need to end up with twice as many as normal.  And gates are dual-lands, they weren't going to be straight up ignored even without mechanical relevance.  I think 6 gates is doable, but probably requires taking gates like...2nd and 3rd pick or so, and not being too picky about the colours it makes.  Is that worth-it?  I don't know.

The second major mechanic is multicolour matters.  There's a cycle of 5 common creatures at 6CMC which range from "OMFG that's good"

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369014

To....meh

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368976

The good news is that you don't really have to draft weird to get the mechanic going; you're going to be taking multicolour bomb creatures.  (Notably, the set is designed such that most of the commons are monocolour, and most of the uncommons and rares are multicolour, so your big bomb creatures will mostly benefit from these).  The bad news is that they are not all created equal.

Blue is awesome: mass flying will win games.
Black is also good: when everyone's a 2/4, deathtouch becomes pretty sexy.
Green...well, when everyone's a 2/4, trample becomes pretty unsexy
Red, white, vigilance and haste aren't that exciting in a format where attacking tends to be unprofitable for the attacker.

So...what else is there in abundance...?

Cluestones!

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369017

Like...for reals, this is 10 commons in the set, out of 60 commons.  The average pack will contain two cluestones.  The average drafter will get six cluestones in their final cardpool.  I can't really picture a situation where you'd even want to play that many.  Point is, don't fight over these.


Evasion creatures: are pretty scarce.  Unblockable is only on Aetherling.  Protection is only on rares with one exception (which is also the only landwalker in the set).

Flying, however, is an exception in that it is quite well supported.  Not only that, it seems to be less inclined towards "high toughness no power" as a rule.

Beetleform Mage
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369000
(incidentally, one of the few commons that can get 4 power...)
Wind Drake
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369037
Rakdos Drake
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369085
(technically it's a 2/3, which might seem more defencive, except it can't block)
Steeple Roc
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368992
(Fairly unimpressive)
Maze Glider
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369014
(a bomb, and the one higher toughness than power at common)

And while we're at it...
Thrashing Mossdog
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369020
(Has reach.  I read this card about five times without realizing this; pretty important)

Really only one or two of these is more about blocking than attacking.

At uncommon...

Ascended Lawmage
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369016
(3/2 you say?)
Fluxcharger
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368955
(mostly defensive, but can turn on the heat)
Jelen Sphinx
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368947
(defensive stats, but an ability that wants to attack)

Not really definitive either way.  At Rare...

Call
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369063&part=Call
(4 1/1 tokens?  Yeah, you attack when you have that)
Dragonshift
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369061
(Basically just an overrun)
Mirko Vosk
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369026
(a 3 turn clock or something crazy, despite the 2/4 stats)


So...on to removal...

I'm actually wondering if the best common removal is Runner's Bane
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368966
Almost everything has 3 or less power, including some fairly scary 6 mana commons.  Uncommon is where the super splashy removal is, of course, with putrefy and helixes running around.



On to the next theme....enters the battlefield triggers!

All five of the gatekeepers have them, of course.  But also several noteworthy uncommons like...

Trostani's Summoner
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369072
(which is already a beating)
Scab-Clan Giant
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369005
(which doesn't really have to worry about misfiring when everything has 2 power)
Bronzebeak Moa
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368971

Which is...not too much of a theme without the gatekeepers.  But it is something to keep an eye out for since

Species Gorger
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369015
looks fantastic, and...
Deputy of Acquittals
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369084
Is honestly worth running even without an enters the battlefield theme.

(I would in fact love to get Species Gorger and Trostani's Summoner going at the same time.  They're both uncommon, so it's not that crazy).



So...I think I'm most impressed by blue at the moment, as it delivers the flyers and delivers probably the best common removal against this particular field (and blue has a lot of good multicolour uncommon removal too; Simic Arrest, turn//burn, far//away).  If I'm really thinking it's going to be a purely slow format, blue also steps in with stuff like card draw and counterspells, which are normally only ok in faster limited formats.  And if other people come to the same conclusion, ok, then there'll be a lot of fighting over blue.

But I think the most significant decision is whether to take gates aggressively, trying to get 6-7.  Or...whether to go for power uncommons with the early draft picks.  I feel like the bombier cards will be better in a super slow format, so probably the uncommons (depending on whether they're good uncommons, granted).

[Ranmilia]

Sounds like it'll be similar to the prerelease events in some respect.  Those were Sealed format, running 4 packs of Dragon's Maze and two of the special guild packs from RTR/Gatecrash.  Reports from them indicate:

- There's almost no removal in Dragon's Maze, so anything you see in draft is probably a slam pick.
- There are a lot of bombs that will just outright win a game, moreso than most sets, and made worse by the limited amount of removal.  Nothing you can really do but be aware of that.
- Contrary to expectations, heavy DGM seems like a very aggressive format.  There are plenty of high cost/high toughness guys, but most of the defensive creatures can't actually stabilize a board vs the good attackers (Trostani's Summoner being a notable exception), and again there's no removal to let a controlling deck back in the game.  Phytoburst (http://magiccards.info/dgm/en/46.html) in particular is a huge beating, especially in multiples.

[metroid composite]

Well...low removal does not necessarily make for a fast format.  Rise of the Eldrazi was intentionally light on removal to make big bombs playable, and it was a slow-ish format.

It's also noteworthy that two packs from other sets are pretty important.  Not because the other sets have more aggressive creatures (although sure, they do) but because those two packs allow you to play a 2 colour deck, and 2 colour decks just tend to be faster.  Whereas triple DGM...I dunno if everyone is going to be playing 5 colour or anything that crazy, but I would expect everyone to be 3 colour maybe splashing more, and probably 3 lands that ETB tapped.

Phytoburst is...a sorcery.  Like...I think it's actually probably good in constructed (Might of old Krosa was good in constructed even though Giant Growth was not).  But in general Phytoburst reminds me a little of Browbeat.  It's 2 mana for target player sacrifices a creature unless they have Phytoburst deal 5 damage to him or her.  Which...edicts aren't that great to begin with, and ones that don't even always kill...yeah.  Granted, Dragon's Maze only has two regenerating creatures and one indestructible creature, and none of them are commons, so that does mean phytoburst should at least almost always be a browbeat-edict.


Now, I do agree that Dragon's Maze looks very bomb dominated, but that's different from being a fast format.  Like...in a bomb format you really want to play your Divination variant, as it helps you to draw into bombs, draw into removal, draw into lands to play your bombs...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369099
Whereas in an aggressive format you would really want to play your aggressive bear (or better) 2 drops...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368972
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369028

When I say this is a slow format, I mean that I don't think I should be high-picking 2/2s for 2.  (And I can't high pick 1-drops because they don't even exist; none in the entire set.  Zero).  And on turn 3, I feel like I'm quite possibly better playing a cluestone to ramp/manafix/draw into bombs than I would be playing, say, one of these:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369070
(Although, honestly, the three drop slot does have three different variations on Wind Drake, which I would happily play, and would certainly prioritize over the cluestone, being like...almost the only fliers in the set at any rarity).



But sure, let me look over the removal, and how little there is...

Common removal...
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369029
(sucks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368988
(really really bad in triple DGM.  One evolve creature outside of rare!  One unleash creature outside of rare.  Whoooo!!)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369043
(sucks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369054
(Phytoburst, as mentioned it's kind-of an edict, sometimes!)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368966
(Still looking like the best common removal by far; 2 mana, immediately removes as a blocker stuff that costs up through 6)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369077
(Doesn't stop them from attacking you, but hey, you can tap a defender)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368962
(4 mana for a shock.  Underwhelming)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369090
(5 mana for Incinerate......or more accurately 5 mana for entwined Barbed Lighting...hey that already cost 5 mana.  Yeah, in a vacuum this is still good enough for limited.  In a set where 4 is the most common toughness, this is probably a little worse than it initially looks)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369046
(Gatekeeper version of Nekrataal.  Good if you have the gates; still only kills small stuff)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369050
(deathtouch for everyone!  Decent at fighting bombs)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369049
(One of the few commons that can kill big bombs.  And it's card advantage.  And it gets your bomb back...)

There's actually more common removal than I thought, most of it is just terrible.

Uncommon...
Wear//Tear kills artifacts and enchantments!  next

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368989&part=Armed
(honestly, a bit of a board wipe alpha strike moreso than removal)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369080&part=Burn
(100% kill one target, or sometimes 2-for-1)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369042&part=Far
(kill 2 creatures, more or less)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369094
(2 mana instant, something is probably dead unless it is very late in the game)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369071&part=Loss
(There aren't too many 1 toughness creatures to make this worthwhile)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369073
(Destroy target creature; 3 mana)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368945
(lolwut?)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369052
(Basically just kills a creature, and in a dire emergency can be moved from one creature to a massive bomb)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369081
(Remember what I said about 4 toughness being the most common?  This is quite good)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369064
(Remember what I said about the lack of +1/+1 counters?  yeah .  On the plus side, still a 2/5 deathtouch)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=369005
(4 toughness is the most common, and damn near nothing has high enough power to kill it...but you can't target it).

EDIT: forgot this one:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?multiverseid=368985
(Card advantage, kill a creature, with certainly the potential to kill a bomb.  Sounds quite good in the format.)

There's a good 4 or so that basically kill target creature at uncommon.  Granted, 4/40 uncommons means these straight up kill spells will show up about one every 3 packs.  So...yeah, proably one per deck.

[metroid composite]

Ok, there are set reviews, I'm going to be referencing several:

LSV's from Channel Fireball
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/dragons-maze-set-review-white-azorius-and-orzhov/
This guys' set review
https://mtgshops.com/posts/dragons-maze-limited-set-review/87
This site's set review, which I hope is all written by one person
http://thoughtscour.com/category/set-review/

I will be sorting them by LSV, because he's LSV and has actual cred, unlike the other people I don't recognize

WHITE

Scion of Vitu-Ghazi
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.5
TS Sealed: 4.0
TS Draft: 4.0

First pick rare bomb, everyone agrees.  This might be a little worse in triple DGM than people are projecting for DGM/GTC/RTR because there aren't very many creature tokens better than a 1/1 bird outside of rare/mythic.  (Trostani's summoner makes 4/4 tokens, those are pretty cool, and Alive is a 3/3 token, but that's about it).

Haazda Snare Squad
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

LSV rates this card pretty high compared to everyone else; something to keep an eye on.  It's a good 3 drop, and there aren't a lot of those.

Renounce the Guilds
LSV: 3.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

Multicolour cards are more frequently bombs--unlike sac effects this will almost always hit something big which is why LSV rates this highly.  But a lot of other people seem skeptical about this, which means people might underrate it?

Sunspire Gatekeeper
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 3.0 (2.0 without 3 gates)
TS Draft: 3.0

Across the board pretty much total agreement on this one.  LSV also notes that it's worth running off-colour gates once you have about two gatekeepers.

Boros Mastiff
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

Bear.

Steeple Roc
LSV: 2.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.0

5 mana for a 3 power flier is consensus playable, but also consensus not that great.  TS does feel like it's better in slower formats (like sealed) though, so that's something to bear in mind.

Maze Sentinel
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

LSV gives this entire cycle lower than everyone else does, and I think the reason is that having a sensible mana curve is still important in limited, and chances are you're going to have uncommon or rare bombs to stick in the 6 slot.

Riot Control
LSV: 1.5
DO: 0.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone agrees this is garbage.  If people do play a lot of phytoburst, though, this is an obvious board-in.

Wake the Reflections
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.0
TS Sealed: 1.5
TS Draft: 2.0

I expect this to be total garbage in triple DGM due to a scarcity of token makers.  Moreso than it already is.

Lyev Decree
LSV: 1.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

LSV rates this a lot lower than the others--which it's a straight up card disadvantage sorcery that pushes a little more damage through; if I'm expecting the format to be slow and about bombs, I should probably think of this like LSV



AZORIOUS

Lavina of the Tenth
LSV: 4.0
DO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

Yeah, it's a bomb, and obviously so.

Ascended Lawmage
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Absolute and total consensus on this one.  Also noteworthy that Armadillo Cloak is in this set (under a different name, but whatever), and Ascended Lawmage is just about the best thing to cloak up in limited.

Beck//Call
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 4.0 (3.0 for just Call, 1.0 for just beck)
TS Draft: 4.0 (3.0, 1.0)

LSV is pretty clear on that he would play this whether or not he even had the mana to fuse it in his deck, and would not expect to fuse it very often at all.  He does make the point that 4 1/1 fliers in limited pretty much guarantees card advantage.

Council of the Absolute
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 3.0

LSV likes this a little more than the others; game one it's ramp that leaves a good body behind.  Game 2 you can stop their bomb.

Jelen Sphinx
LSV: 3.5
DO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

TS does note "I've given it a 3.0, but it might be better than that."


Deputy of Acquittals
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.5
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 2.5

Funnily enough with the same score from LSV as a practically vanilla bear...but costing two specific mana actually does hurt it a lot in the role the bear would fill (being aggressive; this is probably not dropping turn 2).

Protect//Serve
LSV: 3.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

It's a combat trick, and one of the only ones in the set, and one that has an outside potential for a 2-for-1.  LSV does rate this a little higher than the others, so that's something to pay attention to--it's a card that might come around the table and is worth taking.

Render Silent
LSV: 2.0
DO: 2.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Cancel according to LSV ranges from 1.5 to 3 depending on the format (the slower and more bomb intensive the format, the better it is, obviously).  I should maybe actually edge this up to 2.5-3 range in my evaluations just because of the low amount of removal and high bombiness of the format.  I'm not keen on the colour commitment, though.

Restore the Peace
LSV: 1.0
DO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

Yeah, this is pretty bad, particularly since it bounces your own stuff too if you get into any combat.  Although apparently has potential for a few people to overvalue it.



ORZHOV

Blood Baron of Vizkopa
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.0
TS Sealed: 4.5
TS Draft: 5.0

Obvious bomb

Teysa, Envoy of Ghosts
LSV: 4.5
DO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

5 turn unblockable clock, and your opponent can't really attack back.

Ready//Willing
LSV: 4.0
DO: 3.0
TS Sealed: 4.5
TS Draft: 4.0

If you cast both sides, you basically win.  Interesting that one site would undervalue this slightly, but with 2/3 people noticing how good it is, it's not like I can expect it to go around the table.

Tithe Drinker
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.5
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS Draft: 3.0

I'm inclined to side a bit more with TS on this one--two drops are going to lower in value, and ones that cost two specific mana are almost never going to drop on turn 2.  Extort is still really good, though.

Maw of the Obzedat
LSV: 3.5
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

One of those cards LSV rates more highly than the others, and the reason being he sees it as a nightmare to play against.  Which I think is the right way to think about it--if you consider it a proactive card, and start looking for tons 1/1s to sac, you're not going to find any, but as a reactive card that messes with removal and combat, even if you never activate it, makes decisions very hard for the opponent.

Profit//Loss
LSV: 3.0
DO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Everyone recognizes this as good but not great in limited.  Interesting thing to note: LSV has this at the same score as protect//serve, which feels off to me.

Sin Collector:
LSV: 3.0
DO 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Eh, it will miss a lot, but 2-for-1s seem good if I expect the format to be slow at all, some bombs are spells not creatures, and information is good.

Debt to the deathless
LSV: 2.0
DO: 2.0
TS Sealed: 0.0
TS Draft: 0.0

Bombs will probably finish the game before mana gets this big.

Obzedat's Aid
LSV: 1.5
DO: 2.5
TS Sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Yeah, only your graveyard hurts.



Ok, will summarize other colours/guilds later....

[metroid composite]

BLUE:

Aetherling
LSV: 4.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

I think this might well be the best bomb in the set.  It pretty much beats or races all the other bombs pretty damn well, and is immune to removal if you keep mana open, and is roughly a 2 turn clock.

Runner's Bane
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Total 100% consensus.  Solid removal is solid.

Wind Drake
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Total consensus, it's fairly good.

Opal Lake Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO:3.0
TS sealed: 2.0 (3.0 with 4-5 gates)
TS draft: 2.0

Not sure why TS would put this one at 2.0 for draft compared to 3.0 for the white gatekeeper (1 card ~= a 2/2 token).

Maze Glider
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.5

I tend to evaluate this card a little bit high.  LSV does make the point of "make sure you have enough coloured creatures first".  I think his rating is a bit low, though--he puts it at the same level as Steeple Roc, 5 mana for a 3/1 flying first strike; this is 6 mana for a 3/5 flying that can be an overrun.

Murmuring Phantasm
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

It's a 2 drop.  That doesn't require two specific colours.  In a format short on 2 drops.  It's not bad.

Hidden Strings
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 2.0

I can hope someone misreads this and misses the lacking "and they don't untap"

Uncovered Clues
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 1.0

You're just unlikely to be able to play a critical mass of spells to make this work.  Although...unlike some of the other themes, like +1/+1 counters, there is at least a good amount of support for "spells"--15 split cards, and several more spells on top of that.  (64 spells in total, including 14 commons)

Mindstatic
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

You know, if I need to board in a counter, I actually like this almost more than the cancel variant, just because it's more splashable.

Trait Doctoring
LSV: 0.5
TO: 0.5
TS sealed: 0.0
TO sealed: 0.0

Yep.


DIMIR

Mirko Vosk, Mind Drinker
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Pretty obvious bomb; kills in 2-3 attacks.

Far//Away
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0 (4.0 if access to both colours)
TS draft: 3.0 (3.5 if access to both colours).

Good removal, potential card advantage, this seems quite good.  While it's "only" a 3.5 from LSV, it is also his pick of the best common/uncommon for Dimir.

Warped Physique
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
Ts sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Also very good removal.  I'm not sure I'm going to like the way you have to play if you have it (if it's anywhere in your deck, it's worth holding lands in your hand).  For that reason, if given a choice between two very similar power cards, I might lean away from this, but there's no question the value of this card is very high, and possibly a little moreso because of the low amount of removal available.

Haunter of Nightveil
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I've also heard this card spoken of very highly in podcasts, saying that giving enemy creatures a -1 stat is actually a much bigger deal than giving your own creatures +1/+1.

Woodlot Crawler
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

2 power probably unblockable for 2, with protection from one colour hosing about 40% of gold cards (and 20% of monocoloured cards, of course).  That said, it loses some of the power it might have had because Dimir gets lots of value from evasion through the cipher mechanic...and the two cipher cards in this set are absolutely awful.

Plifered Plans
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Total agreement, just a solid card.  If I'm really expecting the format to be all about bombs, I might even want to take it a little higher than these would suggest.

Notion thief
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

It's a surprise blocker that usually acts more like a removal spell; that's enough.  (On rare occasions it could draw you cards, or make a card draw spell into a dead card in hand for your opponent).

Breaking//Entering
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

It gets a bomb from either graveyard.  6 mana is a lot, but haste helps.

Reap Intellect
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 0.5

Expensive discard, in limited...yeah.



IZZET

Ral Zarek
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 5.0
TS draft: 5.0

I'm curious what LSV will say, but 5.0 feels like a stretch.  If you cast this while you're in trouble, it's probably a sorcery speed lightning bolt, maybe two sorcery speed lightning bolts.  If you're ahead already, then sure, the +1 ramps you while you get to ultimate.  You can always bolt their face for reach.  I mean, still a bomb, still removal in a format starving for it, still a planeswalker in limited, but 5.0 feels a bit generous.

EDIT: and LSV posts his impression: "It's the rare planeswalker that is not awesome in limited".  So...there we go.  (Still a 4.0, granted).

Dragonshift
LSV: 4.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

LSV makes the good point that this is a pump spell in the earlygame.  I'm not sure how I feel about this one on its bomb end--it's not just that it costs 7 mana, but it also costs RRUU.  In a 3-4 colour deck that sounds like it might be frustrating.  I dunno, it's still definitely a bomb with earlygame applications.

Turn//Burn
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0 (2.5 if only blue)
TS draft: 4.0 (2.5 if only blue)

I feel like LSV is underrating this card a bit; unconditional removal, can 2-for-1.  Granted, this was his pick for best of the izzet commons/uncommons.

Blast of Genius
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

TS makes a very interesting point, that apparently Thoughtflare was a first pick in RTR limited.  Additionally, this is some of the only removal and digging for bombs and mana fixing.  This should be valued pretty high.

Melek, Izzet Paragon
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 2.5

They pretty much all note that you need to get him early and draft around spells, but if you do it has a decent payoff.  As noted, drafting around spells is something that can sort-of be done due to the instant and sorcery count being fairly high.  I dunno, while you can build around it, the payoff is not exactly a massive bomb.

Nivix Cyclops
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 3.0

The ability to cast any instant and eat an attacker is indeed pretty neat.  TS feels that this is another card that requires a lot of spells (thus making it not as good in sealed where you can't get your spell count up).

Fluxcharger
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 3.0

it's a 1/5 flying for 4; that's already fairly solid.  And sometimes it swings for quite a bit.

Catch//Release
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0 (2.5 if you can cast both halves)
TS draft: 2.0 (2.5 if you can cast both halves)

The general consensus is that a threaten is not that great.  It should be noted that this is a good sideboard card against planeswalkers (all one in the set), but that's about it.

Goblin Test Pilot
LSV: 1.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone notes that this could potentially do something in limited if it's the right matchup with the right kind of deck on your side.

[metroid composite]

BLACK:

Pontiff of Blight
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Pretty clearly a bomb.  Things that keep it from being completely insane: you're probably not playing just black/white.  The mana curve is probably a little higher (following this up with a gatekeeper only lets you extort for 2).

Blood Scrivener
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I'm not super that thrilled by bears in this format (although 2/1s aren't really significantly worse than bears; not that much removal hits 1 toughness, and it's not like 1 power is even all that common either).  I am pretty thrilled about drawing cards.  I'm not sure how often emptying hands is going to happen, especially when some of the better commons and uncommons are 6-7 drops.  If I do find myself drafting a deck with a lower curve and not too many colours, though, suddenly this looks very good.

Rakdos Drake
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

The interaction between this and Wind Drake is pretty cute.  Wind Drake could block this, but dies if it does.  This can't block wind drake.  But this dies to less removal.  Also, it gets a counter, which matters for all of the "cares about +1/+1 counters" cards.  It's not clear to me at all which one is better.

Ubul Sar Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0 (2.0 without at least three gates)
TS draft: 3.0

There's almost total agreement about this being the best gatekeeper.  Which...with 3 and 4 toughness being more common than 2 toughness in the set, I'm not sure I actually agree with that.  But the only one I can really offer up as possibly better is the blue one (card draw being valuable in a bomb-focused format).

Maze Abomination
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

In a removal light format, this seems good if for nothing else but for bomb management.  TS does make a good point, though, that with so many 6 drops, there is a reasonable chance this comes all the way back around.

Fatal Fumes:
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS Sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

LSV played with a few of these in the prerelease, and was unimpressed with them.  That said, I'm comparing this to Protect//Serve which he gives 3.0, and the comparison to Protect seems pretty obvious.  Playing this as a combat trick is pretty much identical to playing protect as a combat trick, but you can also just play this as straight up removal, which you can't with protect.  Granted, Protect costs 3, this costs 4, and protect has a second mode where it could 2-for-1.  Still, though, far be it for me to contradict LSV, but I think I might take this over Protect//Serve?

Hired Torturer
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
Ts sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 1.5

Unblockable damage!  But...that's a lot of mana to pay for it.

Bane Alley Backguard
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

Everyone seems to agree he's playable, but just a 23rd pick or so.

Crypt Incursion
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.5
TS Sealed: 0.5
TS draft: 0.5

It's a sideboard card!  If they happen to be playing heavy phytoburst, bring in the lifegainz!

Sinister Posession
LSV: 0.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

I'm trying to defend this card as better than LSV's 0.0, but it's pretty hard.  The 1.5 sites make claims about how this is a bit more of a burn card that gets opponents into checkmate situations where they're damned if they block and damned if they don't.  But...I mean, a black mana sorcery to deal 2 damage to target player is...bad.  Wait, I'm sorry, loses 2 life, which means you can't hurt a planes walker with that damage.


RAKDOS

Excava, Rakdos Blood Witch
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

With most of the set being 4 toughness or less, a 4/4 first strike is actually a rather big deal.

Master of Cruelties
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

This is not exactly unbeatable or anything.  If it attacks, just gang block it with three 2/2s or something.  (it can only attack alone, after all, and deathtouch with 1 power only allows it to kill one creature).  Kinda hard to attack into this thing without evasion, on the other hand.

Sire of Insanity:
LSV: 4.0
TO: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0

Yeah, if neither player has cards, probably the one with the 6/4 already in play has an advantage.  Can definitely straight up win some games where you get a faster start.

Carnage Gladiator
LSV: 3.0 (3.5 if you are very aggressive)
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm not really sure what to think about this card.  I don't really want to play it--lots of dedicated mana, and if I really want to keep it alive I'll be horrendously killing my tempo.  And if things go sour and I'm on the defensive, this makes it harder to defend.  At the same time, I really don't want to play against this card.  Like...I'm searching for things that shut it down, and while there's tons of 4 toughness in the set, 5+ toughness is fairly rare (and usually accompanied by 0 or 1 power).  A 4 power regenerating creature actually seems like an unbelievable pain to deal with given the tools in the format.  This makes me think maybe the card is really good, and I should be playing it....

Morgue Burst:
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

This is a fine card and all--removal which will probably be low.  Potentially brings back a bomb.  Potentially kills a bomb.  I think 4.0 is a bit nutty; I wouldn't take this over a blatant bomb.

Spike Jester
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Obviously the card quality here is very, very good.  It's just a question of whether the format supports it or not (or if it's something I want to push towards in draft choices.

Toil//Trouble
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0 (2.5 if only black, 1.0 if only red)
TS draft: 2.5 (1.0 if only red)

A bad 3 mana draw 2 is still good, seems to be the consensus.  And...yeah, given how highly I'm valuing card draw in this format, I'm inclined to agree.

Showstopper:
LSV: 2.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

This is a 3 mana shock with morbid, that's sometimes rarely a blowout.  Not unplayable, just not great.



GOLGARI

Varolz, the Scar-Striped
LSV: 4.0
TO: 3.5
TS draft: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5

Scavenge keyes off of power--so in the high toughness set it's not as sexy as it could be.  That said, 4/6s are very annoying for 2/4s to deal with.  Giving yourself a 6/6ish flier is also scary, and pretty easily doable.  And he regenerates if they do have removal.  Yeah, I find it hard to see this as anything but a bomb.

Deadbridge Chant
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

So...draw a card every turn (unless you reanimate).  Fill your graveyard, which might matter as a lot of cards in this set seem to grab from the graveyard (I blame split cards).  Seems about as good as it gets without being a straight up bomb.

Flesh//Blood
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0 (3.5 for just flesh, 2.5 for just blood)
TS draft: 4.0 (3.5 /2.5)

Blood's a removal spell.  A good removal spell.  Flesh is a mediocre pump spell that can nevertheless work well with blood.  I think the 4.0 ratings are a little overboard, however.  This would be very good in an aggro format, but if I have a bunch of 2/4s, and my opponent has a bomb, this won't kill it.  It's really good if both me and my opponent have like...3/3s and 2/2s, and this kills one of their 2/2s, but that's not quite what I expect this format to look like.

Putrefy
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

LSV puts this a bit lower than others, who put this on the level of "OMFG bomb".  The thing is, between a complete bomb and a very good removal spell, If you have the complete bomb and your opponent has the really good removal spell, your opponent needs to have the removal spell at the same time as you have the complete bomb.

Korozda Gorgon
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 4.0

This card isn't going to get much support in the area of +1/+1 counters; there just isn't much of that in the set, so these evaluations probably trend a little high.  I'm still pretty interested in a 2/5 deathtouch that has the potential to ping some creatures.

Down//Dirty
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

Card advantage tends to look pretty solid to me.  In a format where people are going to be colour screwed, making them discard the two bombs in their hand they splashed for sounds decent too.

Gaze of Granite
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

LSV had some at prerelease; wasn't blown away by them.  Said he needed to spend about 7 mana to get what he wanted (sounds right with a lot of creatures costing 4 in this set).  Certainly worth playing when in-colour at any rate.

Drown in Filth
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

The general consensus is that this card depends on support.  Other cards that mill you make this quite a bit better.

Rot Farm Sekelton
LSV: 2.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.0
Ts draft: 3.0

I think I do put a decent value on 4 power threats that can kill a 2/4 and keep going, so I'd maybe rate this a bit higher than LSV.  Though...there are some decent arguments that this isn't what you should be wasting mana (and deck space) on.

[Yoshiken]

Having played a 6xDGM sealed and a 3xDGM draft yesterday, I can say that Maze Sentinel is almost certainly the best of the Maze ___ cards in my opinion. 3/6 is just monstrous to get through, and the flier just doesn't feel as relevant in this set when there are so many people relying on things like Trostani's Summoner to get damage through. Being able to attack with a 3/6 and having a blocker back is way too nice.

Also, I am looking forward to seeing Green here since I absolutely agree on this format being reaaally slow and Green has the only bear that is actually good, imo.

[metroid composite]

Maze Sentinel? o_O.  My usual barometer is "what does this do against an opponent with 2/4s".  Well...if they have one 2/4 they just block all day.  If they have three 2/4s they can gang block and kill it.  Although sure, I guess none of that is relevant if they're trying to alpha strike through you every turn.  Interesting.

Still, though, better than the black one?  5 toughness is about equally as hard to kill as 6 toughness, but deathtouch makes attacking into you a lot scarier.  (Granted, no vigilance means you can't hit back freely if they do; hmm).


And yeah, the more I think about it, bears still seem cool, because if the opponent is really struggling having nothing but 4 drops in a 3 land hand or something, bears can get in a lot of damage.  Of the common monocoloured ones...white is basically vanilla.  Red is godawful (2/1 attacks each turn if able.  But hey, first strike!  An ability that matters more on blocking...lol).  Green actually scales to the lategame.  The multicolour ones seem solid too, both have lategame applications (flash bounce a creature, and extort), just good luck getting the mana on turn 2.  (But still, if you do, opponent stumbling + you dropping tithe drinker could very easily see a situation where you attack 3-4 times for free, which means a 12-16 point life swing...on something that's going to extort for the rest of the game o_O).  So...of the multicolour ones, the potential payoff makes me excited about Tithe Drinker despite the tricky mana cost.  Deputy of Acquittals.......meh--even if you have it in your opening hand you may not want to play it turn 2.

In the mean time......having just looked through Rakdos and thinking to myself "wow, there's a lot of actually decent aggressive cards here; maybe everyone else will pass them over, and I can get them all in a mostly 2 colour deck."  After a few calculations...LOL no, never going to happen.  While there are several cards that look solid, most of them are uncommon.  At common...the 2 drops available in Rakdos are both garbage for an aggressive strategy (the 2/1 because it's an awful card, the 1/3 because it's not an aggressive card).  At common...there's only one even slightly aggressive 3 drop (Rakdos Drake).  Once we get to 4 mana, things open up a little, with a hill giant!  and two 2/4s, and a 4 mana shock....  5 mana has...a 5 mana bolt.  Like...even if I get a bunch of excellent early picks in Rakdos, like Excava first pick into Carnage Gladiator second pick...it's not like I can fill the rest of the deck with sub-optimal fodder.  Both of those cards are 4 mana, and the common fodder in those colours is also 4 mana.

If there's a chance to draft something moderately aggressive, it probably involves green.  Good bear.  The more I think about it, reasonably good 3 drop evolve creature (it'll almost certainly be 3/2 on its first attack, and will usually grow to 5/4).  Good 4 drop (spider hill giant).  Beetleform Mage as one of its common multicolour cards.  Also, a 2-mana manadork that pings the opponent as another one of its multicolour commons.  Some solid goodies at uncommon (the give half of give//take; in multicolour...Putrefy, armadillo cloak, bronzebeak moa, Armed//dangerous for alpha strikes, Gruul War Chant, Krasis Incubation, and a 6/6 for 5).

This still doesn't sound amazing, though--3 good commons for aggressive, +2 multicolour commons, +1 if you're including phytoburst.  That's one per pack on average.  Of the two colours with an aggressive multicolour common with green...red has a good combat trick at 2, and a hill giant/giant growth split card, a 5 mana bolt that burns them to the face while killing a creature, and that's about it.  Blue has 2 mana removal, wind drake, and that's about it.  Actually, I might be unfairly excluding white, which does have a gold card with green at common (5 mana for a 4/6; it's...less inspiring than the other two, but those stats actually sound reasonably geared for the format).  White has...a bear, a 3 drop that taps a blocker, a 5 mana 3/1 first strike flyer.  So...yeah, any 2 colour combination only really brings us up to 8-9 commons (1.5 per pack; hope that nobody else is in those colours).  Granted, it's not like the green mythics/rares really push for an aggressive strategy the way the rakdos ones do, so I'm not sure why I'd be trying to force an aggressive deck when in green.  (I'll still take those three commons, granted; they're good regardless).

[metroid composite]

RED

Pyrewild Shaman
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

card advantage is card advantage.

Punish the Enemy
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

I think 4 is very generous, and predicated on drafting an aggressive deck (probably not happening).  This isn't a card that takes over the game, and at 3 damage it won't shut down a bomb too often.  This is limited common removal that takes out limited common creatures.

Rubblebelt Maaka
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Choice between two very solid limited effects.

Smelt-Ward Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 1.5

The problem is the ability is very aggressive, but gates are not, and 2/4s for 4 are not.

Weapon Surge
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

This is the cheapest they've ever had a mass first strike card, which could mean it's pretty good, or not.

Maze Rusher
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Almost universally seen as the worst of the cycle, because granting haste to your multicolour creatures that are already in play is not exciting at all.

Awe of the Guilds
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.0

Yeah.

Riot Piker
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.5

Attacks each turn if able seems phenomenally bad in the format.

Clear a path
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.5
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

General agreement that this is a reasonable sideboard card.  But...I dunno, I just don't think any of the walls in DGM are all that scary.

Possibility Storm
LSV: 0.5
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 0.0
TS draft: 0.0



Man, red has a lot of pretty bad cards.



BOROS:

Tajic, Blade of the Legion
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 4.0

Indestructible 7/7s for 4 are pretty hard to deal with.  Although I will note that the black common removal hits this (both the 4 mana shock, and the gatekeeper)

Warleader's Helix
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

I think 4.5 is a bit aggressive here.  It's not a bomb that takes over the game.  It doesn't kill most of the bombs that take over the game (most of which have multiple targets, or 5 toughness, or pro white, or regenerate, or indestructible...).  But yes, obviously very good limited removal.

Boros Battleshaper
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.0

Clearly fantastic card; I think the reason it's not rated higher by LSV and TO is mostly because of the 7 mana cost.

Legion's Initiative
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

This has a lot of ways it can be used (pump, defence from removal, untap attackers, give people haste, fog your opponent).  I'm actually a little more lukewarm on this card in triple DGM.  More toughness on the white creatures isn't getting me too excited when they've mostly got that covered.  And the list of red creatures I want to play at common is pretty short.  (Gatekeeper, hill giant/giant growth).  I'm down with protecting my creatures, but there's a green 1 mana instant with "regenerate target creature" that gets like...1.5 ratings from most of these reviewers.  I mean, it's ok, but I think I'd take good removal over it, and would not splash for it if I was mostly in other colours.

Viashino Firstblade
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 3.0

3 mana creatures with haste turn on battalion, that's what everyone is saying.  Except they don't in this set.  There's no 1 drop in the entire set, and damn near no battalion to turn on (whee...get lifelink on my 2/2).

Blaze Commando
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.0

How many spells actually deal damage?  Punish the enemy at common, one of the split cards at uncommon, that's all I can think of.

Gleam of Battle
LSV: 1.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

The consensus is that six is a lot, and if you're in a bad board state, this doesn't help you at all.

Wear//Tear
LSV: 1.0
TO: 1.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.0

I expect cluestones to be fairly common, with everyone getting 6 on average in their cardpool, but those are literally the only artifacts in the set, and stone rain isn't that exciting.



GRUUL

Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
LSV: 4.0
TO: 5.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

It's a bomb.

Savageborn Hydra
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.5

It's also a bomb

Armed//Dangerous
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

It's an overrun effect that costs six.

Gruul War Chant
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.5

They all note that you need to build an aggressive deck around it, and it's almost a blank card if you fall behind.

Scab-clan Giant
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm going to note that I think 4/5 is a really really nice set of stats to have in the format.  A lot of the format is 2/4s, which can't gang block and kill this, and can't safely block this.  A bunch more of the format is 4/4s, which get eaten by this.  And it's ETB card advantage too?  I might bump this closer to 3.5 range, but...it does cost six mana, so that's probably not reasonable.  4.0, however, is a bit silly.

Zhur-Taa Ancient
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

It's risky, since your opponent gets the mana first, which is why everyone is lukewarm on this card.  That said, you both get mana, but you get a 7/5.

Zhur-Taa Druid
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.5

Tricky mana cost asside, this seems really good, and I've seen other articles call it the best card in the format.  Mana ramp on 2 is something that can't be done any other way, and the ping effect is honestly probably better than extort because you get it whether or not you have a spell, and whether or not you have mana for it.  I think I'd rather have my extort creature be a manadork than a bear in a slower format.  (So...this is probably closer to 3.5; or at least it's similar and probably slightly ahead in power to Tithe Drinker).

Feral Animist
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0 (2.5 with 3-4 pump effects)
TS draft: 2.5

The one player who played with him last ravnica (LSV) notes how rarely he really gets to do work.

[metroid composite]

GREEN

Skylasher
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

In a format with no real 1 drops, and minimal 2 drops worth playing, this actually seems reasonably valuable.  It's a bear with three highly relevant abilites for limited.  2-for-1's wind drake for less mana.  Hell, 2-for-1's ascended lawmage for less mana.  A decent amount of removal is blue, which it dodges.

Renegade Krasis
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 4.0

I'm not sure I'd put this significantly above Battering Krasis for triple DGM.  It's a lord for something that...practically doesn't exist in the set, which means it's mostly just a 3/2 evolve for 1GG.  I'm not sure if that's really too much better than a 2/1 evolve for 2G.  They both grow to about the same size (5/4), but one is much harder to cast on curve, and really wants to be cast on curve (this in a set where mana is already going to be stretched thin).  So...3.0 is probably about where I should put this.

Thrashing Mossdog
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 2.5

All around pretty solid hill giant spider.

Saruli Gatekeepers
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

These seem pretty good against an aggressive opponent.  Like...if someone does make a deck with Phytoburst, this pretty much undoes that entire card.  If it's slow control against slow 5 colour deck against slow 5 colour deck, though...nah.

Battering Krasis
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

Usually a 3/2 attacking the turn after you play it, in general easy to grow to 5/4, and in particular 4/3 is a good set of stats in a land of 2/4s.

Kraul Warrior
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

best common monocoloured 2-drop in the format.  (Which is to say, best 2 drop you actually have a good probability of actually playing on turn 2).  5/5 is pretty relevant too; once you have the six mana, very little in the set can safely block 5/5, or kill a 5/5 on block.

Maze Behemoth
LSV: 2.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 2.0
TS draft: 2.0

Yeah, this is pretty underwhleming.

Mending Touch
LSV: 1.5
TO: 0.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 1.5

General consensus is playable, but get yourself a real combat trick instead.

Mutant's Prey
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.0 (2.0 with 4-5 good evolvers, 2.5 if more than that)
TS draft: 2.5

4-5 good evolvers isn't happening.  Assuming a 6 person draft, there's 180 commons across all the packs, which means an average of 3 evolvers total in the entire cardpool.  Even getting all three doesn't bring you to the 4-5 threshold.

Phytoburst
LSV: 1.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 1.0
TS draft: 1.5

LSV notes that this could theoretically be good in a very, very, very aggressive deck, he just has trouble imagining the kind of setup needed for such a deck.  Gonna be harder in triple DGM.



SIMIC

Progenitor Mimic
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.5
TS draft: 4.5

Huge bomb.

Krasis Incubation
LSV: 3.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Some of the best removal in the set.

Vorel of the Hull Clade
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I think this is going to be closer to 3.0 or maybe 2.5 in triple DGM, due to the low number of counters.  It's still a 1/4 for 3, but that's not really especially valuable.

Beetleform Mage
LSV: 3.0
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

This just seems scary to me.  No other flyer at common is above 3 in either power or toughness except for the 6 mana Maze Glider.  Even as a blocker, it eats 2/4s.  I'm a little dubious about the 3.0 LSV gives this.

Give//Take
LSV: 3.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

LSV notes that he wants to give this a higher rating just because of how much he likes card draw, but doesn't want to take any flak in the comments.  That said, even just the Give half seems pretty hard to deal with.  You can turn a 2/4 into a 5/7; that's immune to almost all removal (including turn//burn because it keeps the +1/+1 counters) and good in just about any creature combat.  Putting this at 3.5 seems justifyable.

Species Gorger
LSV: 2.5
TO: 4.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

This has potential but it's deck dependent

Plasm Capture
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

I'm not thrilled by this mostly because the mana cost is pretty prohibitive.

Bred for the Hunt
LSV: 1.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5
TS draft: 3.0

There seems to be some debate over whether this has value when support exists for it.  Support does not exist for it in triple DGM so...whatever.


SELESNYA

Advent of the Wurm
LSV: 4.0
TO: 4.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.5

Some of these ratings are overvaluing the card because of populate (which is effectively nonexistant in triple DGM--the common populate card is terrible).  However, still 2-for-1s most of the time, into a very hard to handle body.

Trostani's Summoner
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

In a strange turn of events, LSV is rating the high mana card much higher than the other two.  I'm definitely a huge sucker for this card.  I'm a long time fan of Deranged Hermit and Myr Battlesphere, and this reminds me of the above.  I kinda want to cosplay as Trostani's Summoner if I can get organized before comicon this year.  Also, I've been in draft environments with Deranged Hermit (cubes) and other limited formats with Myr Battlesphere (SoM sealed) and they tend to be completely game-ending.  I don't know if I'd bump this up to 4.0, but I wouldn't put this below 3.5, even with the 7 CMC.

Unflinching Courage
LSV: 3.5
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 4.0
TS draft: 4.0

Common removal spells that are instants are 4-5 mana, and only kill stuff with 2-3 toughness.  The risk of getting 2-for-1'd is actually very low if you play this on anything bigger than a bear.  And if you don't get 2-for-1'd, this tends to be a game-ender.  (Due to the low amount of removal, this might even be a little underrated at 3.5)

Voice of Resurgence
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.5
TS draft: 3.5

Total consensus!  It won't be taking over any limited games, but it's quite a bit of value relative to a 2 mana cost.

Bronzebeak Moa
LSV: 3.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

LSV played against them, which is probably why he rates them a bit higher than others.

Alive//Well
LSV: 3.0
TO: 3.5
TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0

Yeah, hill giant with a one mana kicker that can get you a bunch of life.

Armored Wolf-Rider
LSV: 2.5
TO: 3.0
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.0

I actually feel like this card is being a bit underrated.  4/6 is actually a pretty relevant P/T against the field.

Emmara Tandris
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 1.5 (or 2.5 with few tokens)
TS draft: 2.5

remember, token support is quite rare, so this will usually be vanilla.

[metroid composite]

Mana fixing...

I've seen people talking about 1st to 2nd picking gates.  These set reviews don't even rate the gates for the most part, the only one that does is...

TS sealed: 3.0
TS draft: 3.0


And as for cluestones

Cluestones
LSV: 2.0
TO: 2.5
TS sealed: 2.5
TS draft: 2.5

LSV does say that guildgates are much better.


Right now I'm certainly thinking that bombs and bomb-removal should absolutely be taken above gates.  But sure, evaluating on-colour gates in low 3.5 range (by LSV's ratings) sounds pretty reasonable.


Cluestones...yeah, the thing is triple DGM seems like it's going to be pretty flooded with these, with an average of 5 per player.  I can't imagine someone just hoarding these, picking more up when they already have 5 in their card pool.  So...2.0 sounds pretty reasonable.  I'd be a little more excited about the card draw half of these to dig for bombs and removal, except that you can't splash for the cycling effect; you actually need to have alternative mana sources for both colours.  So...using a cluestone to splash a colour means you can't cycle the cluestone as nothing else makes the splashed colour's mana.

[metroid composite]

So...ran a draft simulator, which I think had other people picking asynchronously...:

Ended up with a lot more lands than I was expecting.

Had more trouble getting creatures than I was expecting.  Like...around 4th or 5th pick, if you're trying to stay in colour there might just be nothing.

Had like...four Beetleform Mages o_O

Got to a point where I was like "OK, I think I can play 3 colours, with a splash of white for one bomb, and I can splash with gates."  Did a count of the cards I had in the deck and was like..."whoops, no, I have like...18 non-lands in this deck; I need to play alllll of my white cards."  Like...I think 18-19 mana sources is fine in a slow bomby multicolour format, which is about what I had after I brought in white (well...more like 20-21 because I had two Zhur-Ta Druids, but those are also unblockable threats).  But that still required four colours.  A three colour deck would likely involve careful planning, drafting fewer gates.  And you'd probably have some bombs you hate drafted and can't play.

Let's see...4 colours with gates/cluestones means about 5 mana sources per colour.  3 colours without gates means about 6 mana sources per colour.  Also better tempo, or cluestones could bring it up to about 7 sources per colour.  But gatekeepers will also be worse.  Hmm...not thrilled by the 3 colour option so far....  Maybe I should do some more practice runs, though, and see if that was an anomaly.

Getting pulled into red/blue seems like it's something that can happen fairly easily due to both Turn//Burn and Blast of Genius being some of the few cards that kill bombs.


EDIT: ran another draft simulator where I started out taking dimir and orzhov.  Got a putrefy and a beetleform mage or two and switched to green/blue/black.  Managed to have 21 cards reasonably comfortably; could go up to 23 with the three copies of Down//Dirty in the deck....

[metroid composite]

Something I noticed about the decks I drafted in draft simulator: they tended to be really heavy on multicoloured rather than monocoloured cards.  I mean like...5 monocoloured, 16 multicoloured kind of split.  How much of a problem is this...?

If you're in 2 colours, trying to play a bear, and have two random lands:

1G casting cost: 75% chance you can play it.
RG casting cost: 50% chance you can play it.
GG casting cost: 25% chance you can play it.

In two colours, it's a little harder than casting a monocoloured card, but not too bad.

If you're in 3 colours, trying to play a bear, and have two random lands (assuming no duals):

1G casting cost: 55.5% chance you can play it
RG casting cost: 22.2% chance you can play it
GG casting cost: 11.1% chance you can play it

With three random lands (assuming no duals):

1G casting cost: 70% chance you can play it
RG casting cost: 44% chance you can play it
GG casting cost: 26% chance you can play it

All this assumes infinite lands of each type in your deck (so drawing a mountain doesn't make it less likely to draw another mountain; which is not a safe assumption at all--with that factored in, getting two different colours is marginally easier).

[metroid composite]

Ok, this is just a gut feeling from doing a bunch of draft simulations, but...

I can almost always force a 3 colour deck, usually with a fair number of gates (though I don't know how intelligent the draft simulator is about early picking gates).  This might splash a fourth colour for a bomb or removal spell, but no biggie.

I feel like I get drawn into blue a lot; there's just a lot of multicolour cards where I'm in one of the colours already and the other colour is blue.  If I'm looking to take a third colour (with my first two determined by bombs or whatever) green is almost never a bad decision.  Red generally leaves me feeling extremely short on picks.  Monoblack and monowhite similarly seem prone to drying up, but they have some good guilds (selesnya, dimir, and orzhov seem to pretty consistently deliver a lot of cards--though again, might be how the draft simulator is calibrated).

Let's see if there's any sense in this...

Blue commons:
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5 (but I'm usually happy to pick up a Maze Glider)
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5

Four cards I want, four cards I don't, for the most part.

White commons:
3.5 (oh, forgot LSV rated Haazda Snare Squad so highly; I've been picking it a fair bit lower)
3.0
3.0 (It's the bad bear; I've been treating this closer to 2.5)
2.5
1.5
1.5 (but I've been picking and including Maze Sentinel periodically on Yoshi's advice)
1.5
1.0

Two cards I want, six I don't (but I'll still play three of those) for the most part

Black commons:
3.0
3.0
2.5 (but I'm often happy to take a maze abomination, I've just found that I need to be careful not to draft like...two or three, as they have severely diminishing returns)
2.5
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.0

Two cards I want.  Two more I'm happy to have one of but don't really want in multiples.  Four I don't want.

Red:
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5

Four cards I want, but they seem to dry up really fast.  I think maybe the limited applications of the bolt and the hill giant/giant growth and the mass first strike are just obvious.  Gatekeepers I tend to be able to pick up.

Green
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0

Four cards I want.  (And I'll groan and take the maze behemoth if it's the only in-colour card in the pack)

Guilds...

Azorious:
Commons:
3.0
Uncommons:
3.5
3.5
3.0
(the rest don't matter)

Orzhov
Commons:
3.5 (I tend to draft this closer to a high 3.0; still a 2-colour 2 drop)
Uncommons:
3.5 (although, depends how many creatures you have, I feel)
3.0
3.0 (not entirely sure how I feel Sin Collector yet, though; I probably draft it closer to 2.5)

Dimir
Commons
3.0 (and I seem to pick these up late)
Uncommons
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

Yuuup.  Sometimes I just get fed a pile of really good dimir uncommons.  It's not like there's any real disagreement either--premium removal, premium removal, -1/-0 to their team on a decently efficient body in a set where token swarms or fliers seem like the route to victory.  People are a bit divided on Woodlot Crawler, but as long as you're heavily in the colours I'm kind of on the side of LSV--it's a probably unblockable 2 power 2-drop that could stop various green bombs, and shuts down the best common bear.

Izzet
Commons:
3.0 (but takes some draft support)
Uncommons:
3.5
3.5
3.0

Yeah, I haven't been unhappy with Izzet.  I guess it's the other red guilds that I've felt a little underwhelmed by?

Rakdos
Commons
3.0 (hm, I guess I've been rating this lower than I should; comparing it to blast of genius, which is so much better.  Still kills almost anything and is card advantage)
Uncommons:
3.0 (3.5 if very aggressive)
3.0 (but trashy in non-aggressive decks)
3.0 (but I'd play it monoblack)
2.5

Yeah, like Rakdos.  Rakdos is pretty underwhelming.

Golgari
Commons
2.5
Uncommons
3.5 (mmm...Putrefy.  This disappears fast, though)
3.5 (but I've been rating it closer to 3.0 due to the lack of +1/+1 counters; so...2/5 deathtouch)
3.0 (but everyone besides LSV has it at 2.5 to 2.0.  Card advantage, though).
2.5

Golgari's weird, because it actually has mechanical interactions to think about.  Rot Farm Skeleton is underwhelming, Drown in Filth is underwhelming.  Down//Dirty is something a lot of people who are less card advantage obsessed than LSV seem to dislike.  And yet if you have all of these in multiples, plus maybe one of the rares that cares about the graveyard, then really cool stuff happens.  You fill your graveyard, and Drown in Filth starts getting good.  And then Dirty starts becoming a bit of a tutor.

If it takes a while to find your third colour, it's hard to put these interactions together.

Boros:
Common:
2.5
Uncommon:
3.5
2.0

Oh, hey, there we go; red guilds that underdeliver.  Knew they were out there.

Gruul
Common:
3.0 (though I'd rate it as highly as 3.5 if in the colours)
Uncommon:
3.5
3.0 (requires aggressive build)
3.0

Yeah, I guess I don't have anything against gruul.  So...with Rakdos and Gruul being so-so, red/green/black seems kinda sketchy (though I did put it together once), and Boros is garbage, and white hurts a little for commons, so red/green/white is kinda mediocre too, I guess that means red/blue/green could be a pretty good combo.  They all have good monocolour commons too.

Simic:
Common:
3.0 (though it leans towards 3.5)
Uncommon:
3.5
3.0
2.5 (but in the right deck it's amazing; always try to grab one if I'm gatekeeer heavy or have Trostani's Summoner)

Yeah, I often feel drawn into Simic any time I see a beetleform mage around 6th pick, which seems to be weirdly often at least on the simulator.

Selesnya:
Common:
2.5 (but I've said it before, 4/6 is just nice stats in this format; it might be secretly 3.0 level.  And the fact that it seems to come around late pick pretty often tends to give me a lot of frebie late picks).
Uncommon
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.0

Selesnya's uncommons are pretty shiny.  It's not quite Dimir level where I've taken five straight Dimir picks pack 1, but on the other hand I am a Trostani's Summoner fangirl, so that often pulls me into Selesnya.



So...ok, this explains a fair bit.

Three colour combinations need to avoid Boros.  Additionally, there's good Rakdos stuff, but it's aggressively oriented which can be tricy, and Golgari requires setup, and tends to go for a longer game.  This means sensible chase 3-colour combinations are...

Red/Blue/Green
White/Blue/Green
Black/Blue/Green
White/Blue/Black
White/Green/Black

And then there's some maybes...

Red/Black/Green -- Golgari and Rakdos kinda clash; good cards, don't support each other.  Gruul, Rakdos, and green/red/black commons can all play pretty aggressive, though, so I'd say this one probably works fine.  It does mean playing aggressive, though, which among other things means not playing 19 mana sources, and not playing the green gatekeeper, so that makes space tighter.

Red/Black/Blue -- Izzet's weird; one of their best spells is a 6 mana draw/removal spell.  This doesn't mesh all that well with a 3/1 haste for 2 mana, and a 4/2 blocking creatures hurt their controller for 4 mana.  One of Dimir's best spells involves having lots of cards in hand, which again is a bit antisynergistic.  If we ignore Rakdos and just play Dimir+Izzet, those two are actually pretty synergistic.  Both spell heavy, which triggers the Izzet stuff.  I feel like this colour combination ends up super light on creatures, though...let's see...one gatekeeper per colour, drake, drake, hill giant.  Nivvix Cyclops.  6 CMC maze cycle.  That's about all you'd want to play at common--7 good cards, 3 maze elementals which you don't want more than a couple of (the red one is awful anyway).  So...a lot of the times 1 common creature per pack among cards you'd really want.  And only one multicolour creature (multicolour common creatures often go late, which makes it easier to grab late picks).



So...anyway, with black and white being the shortest on commons, it's easy to say "avoid Boros", having the worst guild cards, and I'd kneejerk avoid Rakdos because it's the wrong set for aggressive, and it only has two sensible colour pairings, neither of which provide terribly cooperative guilds.

So the next question...should Orzhov be avoided?  Orzhov itself has good cards, but not the greatest (unlike the uncommon guild cards in Simic/Dimir).  But white and black dry up fast, and going Orzhov puts you in both.  I've pushed myself into Orzhov frequently and definitely remember a few of those getting very rough late in the pack.  Hm, well that explains a lot.


Ok, well...I guess this narrows me down to 3 options in terms of colours, all of which involve both green and blue.  For major bombs outside of that, splash a fourth colour.