Theorycrafting! (Because I like competitive metagames too much)

[SnowFire]

A random thought on MC's rankings...  I will say it's a little surprising to see Dark Archon at D and Archon at E.  I get it, though, just different criteria than raw in-game use...  while Dark Archons are practically never built and Archons (as raw combat units, not emergency templar-recycling) do get built (e.g. vs. Mutalisks), I guess the moral is that DAs are working for the wrong race.  If they were a Zerg unit, then yeah, using them as Feedback bots vs. Terran to zap/steal Science Vessels would be legit, and they miiiight even see play in deeply late game ZvZ to win Mutalisk battles (although the amount of gas required to build a Dark Archon and research Maelstrom could have been more Mutalisks, so definitely not a midgame play). 

[metroid composite]

while Dark Archons are practically never built and Archons (as raw combat units, not emergency templar-recycling) do get built (e.g. vs. Mutalisks)

I have seen in ASL games protosses making dark archons vs mutalisks, so they do occasionally get built as well--certainly they are a way to stop a muta allin, but only a few players go that route.

But...yeah, in term of how much dark archons are used in actual ASL games, it's similar or a little less than the scout.  It's very rare.

Part of the difference there, though, is that the scout, you can look at it relative to the wraith and the mutalisk, and it's just a worse anti-ground unit than the wraith and the mutalisk--both of those are way better. 

Whereas Dark Archon--it's in the race with high templar, reavers, and arbiters.  If there's one race that is the "spellcaster race" it's protoss.  It has more regularly used spellcasters than any other race, and reavers which fill a similar role to spellcasters.  It's a bit like how terran in terms of ground units that hit air has several options including goliaths, marines, and just building missile turrets in the middle of the map.  If terran didn't have goliaths, you'd probably see more marines in all matchups.

As for the rating of archon...still a very weird unit to rate; possibly it should just be combined with high templar.

[metroid composite]

So...ASL finals:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djZt3n1Po6s

Some standard stuff--protoss being way up, going a tech path that isn't carriers, and losing.

But the one really interesting game was game 4.  Light fails a rush, and is very behind.  So...he throws down four barracks and an academy, gets medic marine tank, and moves out right as the observer gets to his base so right when Rain would get the information that he needs a reaver.  Gets to rain's base slightly before the reaver finishes and gets bunkers up and wins.

You know, previously I haven't given too much credit to these bio allins, usually just chalked them up to a desperation play that just wouldn't work.  But well...this one worked, so maybe I need to rethink this a little?

[DragonKnight Zero]

FFT Special skillsets as secondaries: thoughtdump

  Picking this back up by dropping various thoughts on how well specails' skillsets function as a secondary skill.  Because they can't be sent on propositions, if one wants to teach them skills outside their base class (Move +2 for instance), they're going to be spending time in generic classes.  So this will lead to an attempt to rank how well their skilsets function outside their base class.

To start things off, Mustadio.

Snipe really functions best with a long range weapon and above average Speed.  Chemist and Mediator are both natural fits with innate gun usage and access to hats.  Archer is a reasonable pick as well with innate longbows.  Ninja I feel is a strong carrier too.  Despite being range 1, getting two shots per use is fairly substantial for those times where Attack isn't a kill.  Classes limited to range 1 weapons don't carry Snipe very well at all and the range 2 and 3 weapons aren't much better off.  Some worse than others such as Knight, Thief, or Monk without any ranged skills learned.  (though with a skillset, Monk Mustadio does have innate Martial Arts for boosted Snipe chances.)

The Equip Gun support ability is a boon for the Snipe command set making it more viable for other classes.   Still it does tie up the support slot and even then it doesn't benefit other classes equally.  Also, 750 Mediator JP takes a while to pile up.  Looking at roughly 35-40 actions to accrue the JP (without Gained JP UP) though it varies depending on Mustadio's levels when he's in Mediator.  Probably expect 40-50 actions since picking up Threaten first looks like a good idea.

So who benefits most from Equip Gun out of the remaining 13 classes?  Thief Musty works out pretty well (by Snipe's mediocre standards anyways) and puts its stellar Speed to use.  Priest with a focus on support spells functions decently; the middling male MA not a factor in gun damage.  Equip Gun Time Mage gives up at most 1 MA so I feel it does come out ahead.  Equip Gun seems to strengthen Bard too.

The remaining classes have less incentive to tie up the support slot.  While Equip Gun doesn't hurt Samurai (and to a lesser extent, Lancer), all the armor classes are middling with Snipe.  Wizards , Summoners, and Geos stand to lose more magic power with a gun and they're less likely to care about its range.  Oracles already have a respectable physical.  Calculator is plain awful with Snipe regardless of the weapon.

Score: 38/85  If I was factoring the overall usefulness of the skillset into the score, it would be lower.  But right now, I'm only rating based on how well classes can carry it.  And spell guns can make almost anyone viable.

Agrias

    Holy Sword wants high PA and WP to be a worthwhile pick.  Well setting Holy Sword for Knight or Geomancer is mostly automatic.  Any other class will need to devote their support slot to Equip Sword.  At least Agrias will be contributing while accruing the needed JP for Equip Sword which will probably be about 15-20 actions.  (Gained JP up doesn't really speed this up if she doesn't start with it; it takes more actions to learn it than it would save)

   With Equip Sword, classes with access to PA boosting clothes and hats will see the most benefit.  Ninja is a fantastic carrier.  High WP flail in the right hand, sword in left, and go murder things.  Thief Agrias with PA boosting armor works really well and is one of the few powerful Thief setups when training for Move +2 on a special.  Archer is an odd choice but still manages some relevance.  If she hasn't trained much in other classes yet (like right after learning Equip Sword), it may well be her most damaging option though this does give up the range of a longbow.  Dancer with Holy Sword has acceptable PA and the skillsets work well together.  Dance when out of range and Holy Sword when something is close enough.  Samurai wants a Rune Blade but once acquired, it's a pleasing combo with Draw Out providing utility options and different effect ranges on its offensive skills and Rune Blade boosting those.

Lancer and Monk have the raw PA but have fewer PA boosting options so less attractive as carriers.  As for the magical side of the job tree, yeah no they're going to be worse with the swordskills than Holy Knight.  At lower raw PA levels and PA boosting gear, she can get away with decent power on Chemist and Mediator but guns may be preferable.  Priest can sometimes equal Holy Knight/Thief in PA (90% PA multiplier compared to 100%) so it could be a viable carrier.  The other mage classes really feel like she'd be better off finding a different secondary skillset.  So if one is determined to pick up Teleport for her, she's probably not going to be using Holy Sword during that time.

Score: 37/85  Being dependent on having a sword and having nearly half the job tree unable to wield the skillset well hits her hard with the criteria I'm using.

Rafa

  She wants lots of MA for Truth.  Wizard is the obvious pick but I feel the skillsets are redundant  together.  They're both magic damage and I'm more inclined to favor Black Magic's dependability than messing with Truth on a Wizard Rafa.  At least Truth pierces evasion and low Faith though which keeps it from complete irrelevance.  Unlike Summoner, another carrier where Truth is most likely sitting unused.  I find Priest, Time Mage, and Oracle the best Truth carriers.  Truth provides offense while the White/Time/Yin-yang Magic provide utility.

  On the physical side, only Rune Blade Knight or Geomancer stick out to me.  Knight won't be amazing MA but it's decent with a Rune Blade, Red Shoes (and Aegis Shield if willing to sacrifice evasion) and provides ranged options which Knight lacks.  Geo does have MA and a good array of boosting options but geomancy piercing evasion means I'm likely to favor its reliability over mucking about with Truth.  Any other class, setting Truth as a secondary is pretty much only because I don't have a better option, not that I'm expecting Truth to make much of a contribution to a battle.

Score: 16/85

Malak

    Un-Truth wants high MA and a class that doesn't need Faith to be effective.  Which leaves... almost nothing.  Rune Blade Knight is OK and Un-Truth does let it attack things at distances or over large vertical difference.  Geo has the MA but again, I'm more likely to reach for the dependability of geomancy over risking Un-Truth.  Bard has above average MA but not much in the way of boosting it.

Yeah, Un-Truth is awful as a secondary.

Score: 6/85  And this is with a pity point for Oracle Malak and not factoring in the effort to unlock Bard.

[DragonKnight Zero]

FFT Special skillsets as secondaries: thoughtdump continued

Beowulf

    Magic Sword requires a sword and decent MP to make frequent use of it.  MA is not as important since most of the skillset's accuracy comes from the skills itself but is nice to have.  Geomancer is probably the best not-Temple Knight option he can get.  Knight has robes but is generally lacking in MP lowering its desirability as a carrier.  Using the skillset in other classes requires Equip Sword.  The carriers that stand out for me are Wizard and Summoner.  Black Magic/Summon Magic provide the direct damage that Magic Sword generally lacks.  Priest is OK too with its Speed multiplier and a skillset that covers different functions than Magic Sword.  Samurai with a Rune Blade works OK for similar reasons as Agrias but unlocking Samurai on Beowulf is a pain since he's so awful in Monk, Thief, and Archer.  Time Mage feels only OK as the melee damage isn't much better than a staff and maybe even worse.  Compare that with Priest who has a decent physical for those moments one can catch an enemy midcharge.  Oracle has lots of overlap and would require giving up a stick for Magic Sword.  Lancer MP is terrible and robes don't save it.  Mediator with Magic Sword is viable but I don't feel it's worth giving up a spell gun for.  Hat wearing classes without robes would lean towards wearing a Gold Hairpin for MP to fuel Magic Sword and giving up a Thief Hat/Twist Headband feels like a bigger sacrifice.  Chemist and Archer would also entail sacrificing their ranged weapons so I consider them terrible Magic Sword carriers.

  Score: 25/85  I considered throwing a pity point for Thief since Equip Sword does help its offense but it doesn't change how it's still bad as a carrier which is what this evaluation focuses on.

Orandu

  Similar to Agrias, likes having high PA and WP.  In some ways Orlandu feels better off than Agrias in generic classes yet in some ways he feels worse.  Partly because Holy Swordsman is so good so there's a bigger power loss relative to a generic wielding All Swordskill.  And partly because he joins later when there are more significant hat options.  Still male PA gives him more oomph.

  Knight Orlandu offers nothing over his base class (other than higher PA growth which I'm not factoring in here).  It's still his second best but the gap between first and second is noticeable.  Geomancer Orlandu doesn't have the same appeal as Geo Agrias despite male PA.  Knight swords are a factor by the time he joins so it's a bigger power drop.

  As for Equip Sword classes, Ninja is still fantastic for the same reason of Agrias.  Even more destructive with male PA backing it up.  I feel he pulls off Monk well enough.  Samurai Orlandu doesn't have the synergy factor of Samurai Agrias and Draw Out is going mostly unused in his hands.  He's in Samurai to grind Blade Grasp and get out once done.  Thief I consider the minimum PA threshhold for a All Swordskill carrier.  Less power per attack than other options but with that speed, he's getting lots of turns relative to other generics.  Archer and Lancer are functional but don't really add options other than shields.  The magic side of the job tree are all awful at carrying swordskills.

  Score: 24/85  It's not that the skillset is bad in other classes.  It's that Holy Swordsman is so good that the gap in power is so much bigger.

Reis

  Dragon has different ideal carriers depending on what skills Reis will be focusing on.  For the damage skills, MA is the key stat along with mobility.  Geomancer is a great carrier with its 4 move, good MA and MA boosting options, and geomancy if she isn't close enough for a breath attack.  The mage classes are fair carriers to.  As a Time Mage, Reis has time magic for utility while Dragon provides direct damage that will leave a mark with Time Mage magic power.  Priest is good too.  Less magic but more speed with Dragon to contribute direct damage.  Oracle is not as good with less MA then Time Mage and sticks having the same attack range as the breath attacks (and an Octagon Rod does the same damage) though a Black Robe pushes breath damage past Octagon Rod poke damage.  Wizard and Summoner have less use for Dragon attacks but the Now timing and not being subject to Faith means they can still fill a niche.

  If Dragon is there to be used for Dragon Tame or buffing an ally Dragon, then speed and mobility are the key stats.  So Ninja and Thief become the best carriers for this purpose.  By the numbers, Ninja is outright superior in everything besides HP but Thief has an easier unlock requirement and given how late Reis joins, actually feels relevant.

  Score: 21/85  I'm not giving Knight Reis credit since Holy Bracelet has laughable accuracy and 2 range breath attacks have almost as much range issue as 1 range melee.

[DragonKnight Zero]

FFT Special skillsets as secondaries - the last batch of thoughtdump

Meliadoul

  Like Agrias and Orlandu, she's looking for high amounts of PA and WP to power her skillset.  It's even more important that her swordskills are strong since they can only be used a limited number of times per target.  On top of that, a desirable carrier is able to function without Mighty Sword in the event she joins a battle and there are only monsters on the opposing side.

  Knight is good against humans but it's very awkward on monsters.  On monsters, all she's got is Attack and whatever Battle Skills she learned to work with.  In a game where every monster has innate Counter, being limited to range 1 attacks that trigger counters is not a good position to be in.  Geomancer carries Mighty Sword better as it's less helpless on monsters.

  Magical classes all suck as carrying Mighty Sword; she's unlikely to finish off anything with swordskills alone.  On the physical side, Ninja and Samurai are alright but can get expensive to sustain.  Though money generally isn't an issue that late in the game and even less likely to be a problem if one has trained enough to unlock one or both classes on her.  Monk's skillset lets her contribute on monsters without setting off Counters once she can snag Wave Fist (or even Spin Fist if desperate enough).  Lancer can kind of work with Level Jump 2 or more.  The speed makes it harder to connect Jumps though most monsters won't outspeed it too badly.  Not likely to be able to Jump on Thief Hat wearing humans but they're human so smash with swordskills.  Dancer is kind of stuck for non-Mighty Sword damage but I suppose one can use it entirely for debuffing.  Archer and Thief are both terrible at carrying Mighty Sword.  It's a chore to train her Move +2 since she has all that speed but little to channel it towards.

  Score: 15/85  I'm not penalizing the score for how far out of the way it is to unlock Samurai, Ninja, and Dancer on her.

Cloud

  Requiring a Materia Blade to use Limits is an immediate strike against the transferability of the skillset.  And he probably wants Short Charge or forget about hitting anything with Meteorain and Omnislash.  (Cherry Blossom is so slow it's a task to land it even with Short Charge.)  Desired carrier stats depend on the Limits available/focused on.  Cross Slash will probably be the first significant Limit and it's powered by MA.  Blade Beam just wants high max HP.  Climhazzard and Finish Touch are stat independent and only mobility matters for their usability.

  Knight really is not a good carrier.  Subpar MA and the Materia Blade requirement cuts Cloud off from knight swords and the Rune Blade (which he really could have used).  Probably Cloud's best option for a Blade Beam carrier though I don't put much worth in Blade Beam.  Materia Blade also gimps attack damage in a class that's dependent on it.  Geomancer I really like.  Less offense than Soldier but gets 4 Move and shields in exchange which can really help his survivability (or toss on an Aegis Shield to help make up the MA difference).  And Geomancy lets Cloud do something in those awkward moments where he's not getting a Limit off. (be it risking getting midcharged or all available targets being able to move away before a Limit resolves)

  As for classes where he needs Equip Sword to use Limits, the physical classes other than Knight/Geomancer all suck  Well Thief and Ninja can work as carriers for the stat independent Limits but that's limiting his options.  And if Cloud is spending time in Ninja, I'm more inclined to toss a pure generic setup on him.  Samarui is lackbuster since he can't use Rune Blade and Limit at the same time in the class.

  Limit shows more promise on the magical side of the job tree.  Priest is OK.  Could be stronger but the skillsets don't duplicate each other.  Wizard is all about powerful Cross Slash and Black Magic will go mostly unused save for better range (and less often, being able to lock it on units).  Time Mage does well enough with the high MA and Time Magic providing functions that Limit doesn't.  Melee damage will generally be worse than a staff but by the time Cloud joins, Time Mage melee isn't really significant anymore.  It had its day in the sun and that's long passed.  Summoner, I guess.  It feels like it would be a Rafa situation where Summon eclipses the special skillset.  But Limit is more predictable in when it will hit.  Chemist/Mediator lack the MA to support Cross Slash and don't offer anything substantial towards the other Limits.  Plus it would require giving up guns.  Similar drawback with Oracle and its good weapon options.  Calculator is hopeless as expected.  And Bard?  Yah, requiring a PA based weapon in a class with game-worst PA isn't ending well.

  Score 18/85  Tossed in a pity point for Thief/Ninja combined.

Ramza

  Guts ended up being a mental block to evaluate which is why he's at the end of this thoughtdump and not the beginning.  Most of the key skills its hyped for are stat independent.  For the ones that aren't, Dash/Throw Stone are not going to be used for damage output, Wish is strengthened by high max HP but makes little sense to build around, and Ultima late Chapter 4 when the game is more than 80% over.  Instead, I choose to evaluate Guts' transferability based on how much I feel its utility skills can benefit each generic class.  More Speed and Brave are universally useful so for the most part, I won't be factoring that into my ratings (with a few exceptions)

  Monk most directly benefits from Accumulate thanks to the quadratic damage formula of fists and Punch Art.  Monk also can use Yell to catch up Speed-wise to their hat wearing allies.  Ninja and Thief skillsets benefit directly from Yell though Guts takes double the uses to benefit their weapon strikes.  Lancer likes either or both depending on the Speed situation and the opposition faced.  Geomancer with Guts becomes more useful in Chapter 4 with Scream and Ulitma in the picture.  Knight is OK needing only one shot of Accumulate for a damage increase but the skillset barely address their range issues.  Samurai makes use of the full Scream package with a physical that's helped by higher Brave and a magic powered skillset though Guts is a mediocre secondary without it.  Archer feels like the worst physical carrier for Guts.  Takes 2 uses of Yell/Accumulate for each increase in damage.  Unless one uses crossbows but crossbow damage is awful for most of the game.

  Most magic classes get little mileage out of Guts before Scream is learned.  Summoner and especially Calculator like Yell to make up for their speed deficiency.  Thanks to Yell (and Scream when available), Ramza may be the only special character who isn't a chore to train in Calculator.  Ultima further enhances the usefulness of Guts for Priest/Time Mage/Oracle by providing offense that their base class generally struggles with.  Wizard's main niche for Ultima is piercing evasion and otherwise feels redundant.  Chemist doesn't see any unique benefit from Guts unless you're doing something offbeat like fist Chemist.  Scream boosting MA I guess turns Talk Skill Ramza into the best potential Faith rasier.  Enough uses can make Persuade and other low-accuracy skills reliable though this is trivia due to the uses required.  Bard feels awkward as a Guts carrier.  Sing runs independent of a unit's Speed so it doesn't benefit from more Speed.    Harps use two stats for damage so their damage is slower to raise.  1-2 more MA from Scream won't make much impact on the songs that use it.  Bard has good MA but so little MP that it's poor at carrying Ultima.  Could Scream until Bloody Strings is doing 999 per hit but that's a comedy option that takes far too long to set up.

  Score: 38/85

Final ranking for most transferable skillset.

1. Ramza
2. Agrias
3. Mustadio
4. Beowulf
5. Orlandu
6. Reis
7. Cloud
8. Rafa
9. Meliadoul
10. Malak

Feel like I overvalued Snipe so put him behind Agrias in this final listing.  PSP Meliadoul is a lot better; at a glance I'd place that incarnation just below Orlandu.  Malak is dead last, to very little surprise.

[metroid composite]

ASL is back, and two unusual unit sightings in day 1:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl2MHjmGBLk

Game 2: two Archons made (instant-morphed) as the first two units out of a templar archive as a safeguard against a muta allin.

Game 4: guardians and a devourer (!!!) made ZvT when the zerg was miles ahead and probably could have won with anything, also simultaneously had a contain with about 12 lurkers outside of the Terran's nat, and teched to defilers.  I guess also valkyries and wraiths from the Terran.

Devourer didn't actually do very much--killed the wraiths that were killing the guardians, but to be blunt a mutalisk would have killed them faster, while being about as tanky against the wraiths.  I guess Devourer doesn't die to a singular irradiate?  Irradiate deals 249 damage, Devourer has 250 HP.  Or maybe he just wanted a bit of extra range on the air-to-air attack?  I don't know, didn't really make a lot of sense to me.

Guardians busted down a couple bunkers, and there were also siege tanks behind that, so guardians made sense.  Probably could have broken the position without them, but they were helping.

Valkyries and Wraiths were logical of course.

[metroid composite]

ASL day 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14npi5CuG50

Not really that many unusual units.

Most unusual game was game 3.

Terran going CC first, Zerg responding with 3 hatch before pool, and then terran went double armory mech, and zerg building a spire, getting scouted, and then making no mutas and all lurkers.  Terran had no detection forever--no academy for scans.  Lots of turrets but placed to defend against mutas.  No science vessels.

I guess this is a weakness of mech vs zerg.   Mech has to go heavy goliath early on to not die to mutas, Goliaths are gas heavy, so it's hard to get a remotely fast science vessel.  It's also tempting to delay academy.

Other games...there was a proxy hatch spine crawler rush against protoss.  Didn't work very well.

And a couple PvTs where protoss maybe even had an early lead, but did not go carriers and died.  (Went like double robo speed shuttle with high templars, that is supposedly trendy right now but keeps not winning in ASL).  Interesting piece of information from the casters, actually, apparently Valkyries can be built if protoss really goes heavy on speed shuttles (not actually seen in these games, though).

[metroid composite]

ASL day 3:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvc0uB0Emnc

Interesting units were game 4.

proxy rax against zerg, into vultures with mines and a wraith.  Zerg had hatch tech hydras to deal with the wraith.

This apparently is a fairly standard direction for the game to go after a proxy rax.  The one base vultures are needed so that lings can't counterattack against a terran with no wall.  And then wraith is a common followup cause the zerg is not getting lair any time soon so a wraith can force hydras.

[metroid composite]

ASL day 4:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmnLoTQ4mDQ&t=10s

No real surprises, but some potential for huge surprises.  A zerg vs zerg where one player went to hive and then...didn't make any hive units.

Valkyries in both TvTs, but nothing too surprising there, but it's a unit that doesn't always show up.

ZvT there was a weird build (one base lurker rush) although the lurkers never got built, just the ling rush killed the terran.

[metroid composite]

Skipping over ASL day 5--forgot to do this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bj_yG7jwX8

don't think there was much to report though.  Two ZvZs with exactly the units you expect.  A TvP where the floating third CC was misclicked to the middle of the map (protoss won).  And some cheese and weird maps that ended up in one sided games using fairly standard units in ZvP and ZvT.

ASL day 6:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTXcGapaRCc

Is...five PvTs.  If memory serves, Arbiter + Templar was the tech of choice in pretty much every map, and one of them actually was a protoss win.  But...end of the day, 4-1 for Terran.  So...the non-carrier builds still not super impressing me in ASL, even if it seems to be the standard that's been settled on for now.

[metroid composite]

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Scout, Guardian, Firebat, Ghost

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer

OK, so do I have any modifications of these.

Devourer.  I have actually seen it more than once now as a 1 or 2 of alongside a guardian push.  I didn't like it in the game I saw it, but I did like it in a game I saw that was below ASL level (from Artosis' stream, Artosis was doing a Valkyrie rush).  Against wraiths a devourer really isn't any better than a muta, but against valkyries it...still kills the valks slower than mutas would, but it survives a lot longer against them (almost twice the survivability of a muta).

Although...one additional thing that is worth considering--the acid spores legit aren't doing much in terms of making the anti air (whether wraith or valkyrie) die faster, BUT they do slow down attack speed as well.  So...maybe they are included in the attack not to actually kill wraiths or valkyries, but just to make them shoot slower.  The guardians will die if wraiths get built, not a lot that can be done to stop that, but maybe a Devourer or two is there to slow down the process?

They're a lower tier than Guardian for sure, but maybe don't need to be solo in the lowest tier.  They could share with like...Ghost and Scout.

That does leave F tier really small with just Firebat and Guardian.

Firebat in E tier doesn't feel out of place in terms of how much it actually comes up in practice.  It's about as relevant as the ultralisk in TvZ.  It came up in that random TvP from last season.  Dark Swarm is inflating it a little bit, since it is one of terran's only answers to that but you can also make it as part of a rush vs zerg, so it's not just a niche thing that comes up due to defilers.

Guardian in E tier...no, it's just worse than battlecruisers which are also in E tier.  Like...I guess they have slightly more damage relative to their cost (slightly) but like 1/4 the durability, same movement speed, no Yamato.

Are there things that can be moved to E-tier?  Not...really.  Like...no ultralisks don't deserve to be brought down to the same level as guardians and firebats.  Queens are maybe worth considering, but pretty sure there was extensive trade logic behind queens being where they are (probably something about breaking TvT if traded to Terran).  So...I guess just keep separate E, F, and G tiers.

Archon so I have actually seen a few games now where two high templar are built and instantly morphed into an archon.  Typically as defence against a muta allin.  I would say that would justify moving them up a bit, but...they're already on the same tier as Valkyrie, so it's fine.

Hydra might be worth re-evaluating based on the information that they are a critical piece of defence against wraiths when certain build sequences happen (specifically failed proxy rax bunker rush that required pulled drones, into making a vulture, into making a wraith--wraith gets to the zerg base too early for spire due to the lost mining time from pulled drones).  Bottom line though...don't really see hydras moving a tier above marines.  Marine+medic is better vs zerg units, and hydras are better vs protoss units.

Lurker has been showing up in a lot of games, but typically cheesier games with some silly rush that catches people without detection (or not).  Something to keep an eye on, probably no tier movement required.

Carrier I don't think I've seen a single carrier this season.  Backseat gaming that protosses are all losing to Terrans cause they aren't going carriers is all well and good, but presumably if they're not bringing it, presumably some of them have been trying it and it hasn't worked out great in practice games.  If it's back to a tech path that pros almost never use, it probably should be moved down a tier (or maybe even two).  But more than that, there's a lot of trade logic tied to carriers.  Like...Terran being really happy if they get traded defilers cause they can drop plague on Carriers, or mind control carriers if they get Dark Archon.  If carriers are slipping from relevance, there's some tech focused stuff that maybe goes down with them.  If carriers are less of a terror in the TvP matchup, I do think Dark Archons traded to terran probably just...is a lot less relevant.  Probably drops them down to E tier.

So...ok, just reshuffling the E and F tiers for now.  Have some stuff that I'd like to get more data on.

(S tier?)
Zergling, Siege Tank, Mutalisk

(gap)

(A tier?)
Zealot, Vulture, Reaver, Dragoon

(gap)

(B tier?)
Scourge, Corsair, Goliath, Overlord
Science Vessel, Defiler, High Templar, Shuttle (maybe on the low end of tier)

(gap)

(C tier?)
Medic+Marine, Hydra, Carrier, Arbiter, Probe, SCV

(gap)

(D tier?)
Dark Templar, Observer, Dropship, Lurker, Wraith, Dark Archon

(gap)

(E tier?)
Battlecruiser, Valkyrie, Archon, Ultralisk, Queen, Drone

(gap)

(F tier?)
Guardian, Firebat

(gap)

(G tier?)
Devourer, Scout, Ghost

I guess questions could also be asked about why I'm doing special analysis on units like queens and dark archons traded to other races, but specifically not doing that for Devourer cause zerg doesn't have synergy for them at all.  Mmm...if we did do that for Devourer where would they end up?  Devourer not really relevant as anti-muta tech--just too slow tech wise.  So it would be like...big in TvT for battlecruiser fights (though not break the matchup as much as giving terran queeens).  Depending on the position of Carrier in the meta might also be a hard shutdown to carriers TvP.  So...un-tethered by "ignore obviously good synergy like corsairs and valkyries and even Goliaths to a degree" if we allow those synergies...Devourer probably same tier as Queen?

[metroid composite]

OK, I want to revisit dark archons.

Like...a lot of them getting into the tier they did hinges on them being a counter to carriers.

and...how realistic is that?  Just tested in game, and if you start production on two DTs to morph a dark archon at the same time as production starts on a carrier, 150 energy for mind control will be ready at about the same time as the carrier has 8 interceptors.  Mind control is also only 8 range.  Now, protoss can't do very much with two carriers, often needs to wait for 4 carriers, so if you start production on dark archons before the first carrier pops out, it will definitely be ready before there are four carriers.

Mmm...still sounds like it would work fine TBH.

Dark archons are 8 range, and protoss interceptors can hit further away than that, but...even if you need to suicide mind control it's a pretty cost effective trade if you think of it as killing a carrier.  And if you actually get to keep the carrier or deal some damage with it before it goes down it's an excellent trade.

So...ok, still looks like probably a counter to carriers on paper.

But I want to go back and look at dark archon assuming the carrier interaction isn't that big of a deal--either cause I'm overestimating mind control as a counter, or because I'm overestimating carrier in the matchup.

---

Dark Archon vs Queen

ZvZ: Still feel like Dark Archon here--"counter to mass mutas" is just a big selling point.

ZvT: I went Dark Archon last time due to feedback on Science Vessels, and yeah, that still sounds correct.  Some chance that late game mech becomes a big problem without queens though.

ZvP: Seems like a low impact change either way.  Protoss have an abundance of answers to mutas, will be fine without dark archons.  Dark archons from zerg might be relevant to use feedback.  Spawn broodling on lurkers is dubious when psionic storm almost kills a lurker for half the energy.

PvP: Spawn broodling does not kill reavers, so yeah, no change here.  (Some small chance that carrier gets a little bit of relevance in the matchup, but guessing not still).

PvT: Queen easily to kill tanks.

Yeah, this one is still 2-1 or 3-1 dark archon.  But let's look at other stuff in E tier.

Dark Archon vs Battlecruiser

TvT: Battlecruiser right?  Like...Dark Archon might be able to act as a bit of a foil to battlecruiser, but that's just about the only unit you'd want DA for in this matchup.  So it's purely a reactive unit, and not necessarily good at stopping BCs cause EMP.

TvZ: Battlecruiser maybe?  OK, I'm looking back at my old notes on dark archon in terran and...mind controlling ultralisks and lurkers to have units that fight under dark swarm...eh, if I'm going to be harsh on every other melee unit that gets traded to terran and pretend it doesn't erase their vulnerability to dark swarm, I might as well do the same for Dark Archon.  Dark Archon does still do something here, but I'm not sure it's more than BCs.  There's also feedback on defilers to consider. 

PvP: probably doesn't change in any substantial way.

PvZ: probably doesn't change much.  I mean you can build battlecruisers, and they'll do better than carriers in the matchup, but when zerg is already going mass hydra it's iffy.

PvT: Ignoring mind control on carriers...probably not much changes.

2-0 battlecruiser, maybe 1-0 or 1-1 depending on how you see TvZ.

Dark Archon vs Vaklyrie

TvT: I think I lean Dark Archon here.  Some concerns could be raised about how to beat mass wraiths but...honestly...good in the late BC fights.  And...the fact that you gain all the units inside a dropship when you mind control it makes dropships scary to use here too.

TvP: I mean, no change other than Carriers which I said I would ignore.  (Counting carriers this should lean Dark Archon).

TvZ: Seems even-ish, lose one tool against mutas, get...probably a different tool against mutas that's...slower, but also has more potential to stay relevant in lategame with mind control.  Maybe slight lean Dark Archon?

PvP: lol no

PvZ: no substantial change

So...1-0 or maybe 2-0 dark archon.


Dark Archon vs Ultralisk

ZvZ: Dark Archon.

ZvT: Ultra?  I'm just going to say Ultra cause it's the ultra matchup, but...I'm not super sure, just cause feedback on science vessels or mind controlling battlecruisers is not nothing.

ZvP: Probably low impact, but mild lean DA.  Maybe some use feedbacking high templar.  Protoss can fend off mutas without dark archons.  I don't think protoss even considers building ultras--they have zealots, zealots take half damage from hydras already.  I do think everything here points towards DA, but "everything" is still pretty small.

PvP: No impact.  Is there a world where ultras get built?  Haha no, that would be silly--take full damage from dragoons when zealots take half damage.

PvT: Maybe Ultra?  I do think there's a market for "zealot that is faster, less vulnerable to splash, and takes no damage from vultures".  It's also "Zealot that dies in 6 siege tank shots instead of 4 siege tank shots, but costs four times as much", though, so I'm not 100% sure.  Still gives a ton of mobility.

1-1, or maybe 2-2.

---

(Skipping comparisons to Drones and Archons cause weird units).

Yeah...still feels on the strong side of the tier, so I can see how it was a tier up initially with all the other favourable assumptions I was giving it (relevance against protoss as an anti-carrier, relevance against zerg for mind controlling units that can fight under dark swarm).  But...one tie, one (maybe) loss, two wins but the wins were 1-0 or 2-1, looks on the high end but maybe ok in this tier, and this tier is sort of where I want to intuitively put it.

---

Mmm...I don't know with this one.  I want the tier to match my intuition more, but I feel like a couple of different assumptions and Dark Archon just clearly looks like it doesn't belong in this tier.  (Like...if I put more weight on dark archon as an answer to carriers, or more weight on feedback being really good in TvZ on either end against science vessels or defilers, or more weight on feedback vs P to snipe high templars and disable arbiters, or if I just let mind controlled units be an exception to "terran units can't break dark swarm").

I thought I was going to be moving Dark Archon down a tier, but...ehh...I also kind of forgot about feedback before I dived into doing all the unit comparisons, and feedback is good on every race that's not protoss.  Maybe it's still ok in D-tier?

[SnowFire]

Mm, I think upgrading Devourer may be generous.  There are some concocted situations where they are *moderately okay* (generally when they are performing the role that Blizz intended, e.g. softening up Battlecruisers for a pack of Mutalisks or something) but even when in fights that are completely their niche, only mildly outperform the competition, and when out of their niche are just garbage.  At least I can see some sort of bizarro uber-late game Terran building Ghosts if they had resources to burn and godlike Lockdown micro, and Scouts merely by being a unit that can be built comparatively early that both shoots air & ground will very slowly hard-counter certain units that don't shoot up with its tickle laser.  Very bad, but as you've noted, Devourer is basically a style build that isn't great even when fulfilling its theoretical role.

Incidentally, while talking low tiers, I might defend Firebat a bit, albeit mildly...  I think it's a little tricky to gauge how good it is because the stuff it counters is situational.  They're obviously garbage in TvT and TvZ is usually where they're hyped (Dark Swarm, stick them in a bunker to stop Zergling attacks), but if in TvP you *know* you had an opponent going mass Zealots, then Stim'd Firebats are great.  And hell, Protoss does tend to threaten Terran with Zealots early these days, just the problem is that Vultures also counter Zealots, but are much more useful long-term and vs. everything else due to mines, being able to threaten runbys to kill workers, etc.  Whether that's enough to hit E tier, I don't know, but you can argue that the mere existence of Firebats makes it so certain strategies aren't seen, and if in some sort of "unit reshuffle" fantasy scenario, they can potentially have their niches shine (e.g. if alternate T lost Vulture access, or if Z lost Mutalisk access).  I dunno if it's enough to move to E tier, but throwing that out there.

[metroid composite]

Mm, I think upgrading Devourer may be generous.  There are some concocted situations where they are *moderately okay* (generally when they are performing the role that Blizz intended, e.g. softening up Battlecruisers for a pack of Mutalisks or something) but even when in fights that are completely their niche, only mildly outperform the competition, and when out of their niche are just garbage.  At least I can see some sort of bizarro uber-late game Terran building Ghosts if they had resources to burn and godlike Lockdown micro, and Scouts merely by being a unit that can be built comparatively early that both shoots air & ground will very slowly hard-counter certain units that don't shoot up with its tickle laser.  Very bad, but as you've noted, Devourer is basically a style build that isn't great even when fulfilling its theoretical role.

Well I mean, the reason Scout got moved up from the lowest tier is cause I've seen pros build scout recently.  Even though traditionally I think of Scout as possibly the worst unit in the game, it fills a niche of unit that can shoot down.  And Devourer's getting upgraded for the same reason.  I've seen them in more than one game (one game in ASL, one not in ASL).  I've heard Tasteless comment "he might make a devourerer here."

The odd one out from this tier at least in modern ASL is ghosts.  I've seen them built by pros but...I don't think I've seen them in ASL (it was a weird free for all game where a terran went bio and then needed to deal with carriers so made ghosts for lockdown).  And they used to have some super lategame applications in TvT (for nukes specifically--although I don't know if they still get used for that).

Incidentally, while talking low tiers, I might defend Firebat a bit, albeit mildly...  I think it's a little tricky to gauge how good it is because the stuff it counters is situational.  They're obviously garbage in TvT and TvZ is usually where they're hyped (Dark Swarm, stick them in a bunker to stop Zergling attacks), but if in TvP you *know* you had an opponent going mass Zealots, then Stim'd Firebats are great.

No, firebats are not a counter to zealots.  Not even in the casual games I used to play where we all had 50 or less APM.

Zealots deal 17 DPS.  Firebats deal 17 DPS.

Zealots have 160 HP.  Firebats have 50 HP.

Firebats cost a little bit less (50/25 instead of 100/0).  but that's not enough to make up for a 3-1 stat difference.  One zealot beats two firebats if you just A-move them at each other.  One zealot costs a lot less than two firebats.  (Although for what it's worth, if you stim the firebats, they do win the 2v1; this requires researching stim in TvP, though).

And hell, Protoss does tend to threaten Terran with Zealots early these days, just the problem is that Vultures also counter Zealots, but are much more useful long-term and vs. everything else due to mines, being able to threaten runbys to kill workers, etc.  Whether that's enough to hit E tier, I don't know, but you can argue that the mere existence of Firebats makes it so certain strategies aren't seen, and if in some sort of "unit reshuffle" fantasy scenario, they can potentially have their niches shine (e.g. if alternate T lost Vulture access, or if Z lost Mutalisk access).  I dunno if it's enough to move to E tier, but throwing that out there.

If Terran lost vultures vs toss I...suspect they would just make marines and medics instead?  Marines vs zealots is a lot like hydras vs zealots, ranged unit that punishes zealots for approaching, but arguably a little better cause marines don't deal half damage to zealots the way hydras do.  But more importantly marines only cost minerals which lets you build more tanks and get more factory research.  And they can actually fight against dragoons as well.

The big reason marines aren't built against protoss is splash generally, and Reavers in particular, but firebats aren't really that much better against splash (50 HP instead of 40 HP).  Still very vulnerable to splash.

[metroid composite]

Well, round of 16:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFLNgvGq5nQ

Three terrans and a zerg.  The TvTs were about what you expect.  Vulture tank goliath wraith dropship.  (Marines early on).

The one interesting TvT moment was when an earlygame pure mass goliath build just busted out against tanks, including moving shot chasing down tanks.  So that apparently works in small numbers.

But the main story was the zerg (Shine) who...just perpetually plays non-standard.  Opened Lurkers instead of Mutas against terrans in 4 games out of 5 that he played (that went to lair tech), including a lurker guardian hydra push.  Infested a command center with a queen and landed it to start building infested terrans.  Also just a 4 pool against a terran in there.

I don't know what to make of all this, since he is considered seriously non-standard, maybe I should take his style with a grain of salt with respect to the tiers?  The big thing I think could change is bumping up the tier on Lurker, since apparently he's able to lean on that as his default opening TvZ instead of muta (which I thought just wasn't really a thing in pro TvZ anymore).

[SnowFire]

The Guardian push was pretty cool, even if it didn't work out.

On Zealots vs. Firebats: Yeah, but the Zealots deal single-target damage, while the Firebats deal splash damage.  You don't want firebats vs. a 1-zealot harass, but 10 zealots vs. 13 firebats should be firebat favored, right?  The firebat attacks should be hitting ~3 Zealots at once.

[metroid composite]

On Zealots vs. Firebats: Yeah, but the Zealots deal single-target damage, while the Firebats deal splash damage.  You don't want firebats vs. a 1-zealot harass, but 10 zealots vs. 13 firebats should be firebat favored, right?  The firebat attacks should be hitting ~3 Zealots at once.

In small numbers, pros can just micro to avoid splash damage--you see this regularly when zerg players use two zerglings to take out a firebat.

Even in casual games I used to play, where we didn't micro, zerglings got destroyed by firebats, but zealots tended to do enough natural spreading that they usually won fights against firebats, no micro required.

But sure, there might be a point where the firebats would just reach critical mass and there would be too many units even for a pro to manually spread.

The thing about critical mass arguments, though is that marines also reach a critical mass against zealots, where zealots struggle to fight them cause marines are ranged and zealots die trying to reach them.  And marines can actually damage dragoons, reavers, buildings, etc, which firebats don't at all.

Like...when Light went surprise bio and won in the last ASL finals, it was all marines and medics and siege tanks, not a single firebat built:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djZt3n1Po6s&t=6840s

[metroid composite]

Group B and C I don't think there was anything too exciting.  Although what there was in group B was several protoss vs terrans where there were no carriers built, so...still feeling like it's time to downgrade carriers, and downgrade anti-air options.

Group D:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUuabLzqZME

Action once again went for guardians against terran.  Mini made Dark Archons against herO (like...five or six dark archons).

Also, not exactly niche units, but some niche builds.  Double gate mass zealot into expand PvZ.  Corsair double robo mass reavers PvZ.

[metroid composite]

ASL semifinals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYFKTINvULA

So the interesting thing here is that hydra lurker defiler was the lategame weapon of choice.  Using defilers to plague enemy bio balls, and then one shotting plagued units with hydras.  It's definitely an interesting unit composition for the matchup.  Naturally good at taking out science vessels.  This isn't coming out of nowhere, either--artosis said he was facing a lot of this on ladder.

Also, a few guardian plays (by a player other than Shine who is known for unusual builds).  They all failed but...it's a sign that Guardians might be a bit more mainstream generally right now.

---

I should go back and look through some of the quarterfinals, but one definite takeaway is that Carriers were built zero times this entire ASL.  Which...should both lower the evaluation of carriers, and a bunch of anti-air units that were propped up by the general hype around Carriers.

[metroid composite]

So...I've been rethinking the whole trade approach to the starcraft unit tier list, and concluded it gets a bit weird when there's stuff like A-tier being all protoss units.  So...we get a bunch of looks at how good a unit would be in the hands of protoss, and none or very little in the hands of other races.

Thinking it's probably better to just look at a unit in all 9 matchups (extrapolating for the matchups where the unit would be traded).

Going with a simple scoring system like

4: matchup defining (defilers in ZvT, vultures in TvP, Siege Tanks in TvT)
3: mostly core, weird to play without them, but possible (Marine/Medic TvZ, Lurkers ZvT, High Templar PvT)
2: Nice to have (Dark Templar in every matchup, Ultras ZvT, Valkyries TvZ)
1: Has uses, but won't come up much (Dark Archons PvZ, Queens ZvT, Battlecruiser TvZ)
0: no use in the matchup.

So eg some samples with S tier units:

Zergling

ZvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining).

ZvT: 4/4 (matchup defining).  As impressed as I am by the hydra lurker defiler build, it still leans on zerglings for a long time.

ZvP: 3/4 (mostly core).  Used for early defence, some rushes, defiler food if the game gets that late.  But two builds stand out as mostly abandoning lings--lurker contains and hydra allins.

TvT: 3/4 (mostly core).  Are they more important than...any of the factory units?  I...don't think they are.  Like if one Terran had Vultures and one had Zerglings, I'd favour the vulture player.  If one terran had goliaths and the other had zerglings, I'd favour the goliath player.  But they are a superb unit to drop on tanks.

TvP: 4/4 (matchup defining).  Pretty sure Vulture Ling just destroys protoss--absolutely can't get map control.

TvZ: 3/4 (mostly core).  The rushes would be a problem; zerg's vulnerable to zergling rushes.  But going with all the other standard assumptions, which is to say terran zerglings would be coded to not fix terran's weakness to dark swarm, and would not get healed by medics...I think eventually terran would stop making them past some earlygame rush options.

PvP: 2/4 (nice to have?)  TBH, I actually haven't thought about this one too deeply, I assume they would drop off fast but there would be some kind of cheese cause they are better than zealots when in small enough numbers.

PvT: 2/4 (nice to have?)  Long games I think Zealots are generally better, but lings might be better when dropped out of dropships onto tank lines?  Might be worth making one or two to run in front and mine drag.  Might be worth it for just having a mobile army with map control sometimes.

PvZ: 4/4 (matchup defining) Um, yeah, zerglings destroy hydras cause unlike zealots they can catch them, and that seems like a big problem.  Add to that some really good cheese/pressure builds toss would pick up.

---

4s: 4
3s: 3
2s: 2

29/36

Siege Tank

TvT: 4/4

TvP: 4/4

TvZ: 2/4 (it can come up as a response to heavy lurker or heavy ultra play, but not an every game thing, and not the only possible response)

PvP: 4/4 (siege tanks would break this matchup)

PvT: 4/4 (Terran can't deal with siege tanks)

PvZ: 3/4 (Honestly I'm not super confident about this one so I'm hedging a little.  Siege Tanks might just be better against hydras than protoss tools like reavers and high templar, but...then again maybe not?  Could be anywhere from 2/4 to 4/4)

ZvZ: 0/4 (can't shoot up, lol).

ZvT: 4/4 (So...terran has to open either with goliaths or marines to handle mutas.  I assume zerg siege tanks would just break either of those comps unless zerg lost something super extreme like mutas or zerglings).

ZvP: 4/4 (a zerg hydra contain or hydra lurker contain backed up by siege tanks just sounds like it breaks the matchup.  Unless zerg loses like...hydra this sounds awful).

4s: 6
3s: 1
2s: 1
0s: 1

29/36

Mutalisk

ZvZ: 4/4

ZvT: 3/4 (technically possible to play without them as Shine demonstrated, but...still tempted to call this 4/4 just due to how much everyone hypes them up here).

ZvP: 2/4 (You don't need to make a single muta in any given ZvP, but the option is nice)

TvT: 4/4 (A little torn between 3 and 4 here, I don't think this would devolve into pure muta vs muta like ZvZ, but also we're talking about a flying unit that can fight goliaths and turrets reasonably well, and is way better than wraiths at picking off tanks, that sounds like it would suddenly become a real focus of the match).

TvP: 2/4 (I don't know that you make mutas every game, cause you do know that toss will at least have mass goons, and can really shut them down with the right tech, but the option for cheese seems nice).

TvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

PvP: 2/4 (I think both players are kinda forced to go stargate.  If one player skips stargate, well, mutas can fight pure dragoon just fine.  But once it's clear that both players won't just die to mutas, probably don't actually build them, just make the opponent worried about them).

PvT: 4/4 (Mutas break this matchup beyond recognition.  Vulture Tank can not shoot up).

PvZ: 4/4 (Zerg dies to mutas).

4s: 5
3s: 1
2s: 3

29/36


---

Okay, I did not plan that at all, but all three S-tier units came out at 29/36.  That's...kinda neat, although who knows if I ranked everything perfectly here.

The real test will be some of the lower tiers, of course.

[metroid composite]

Moonlight Proleague Scan vs Hm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wy2Ja9HZb8

What is now a fairly meta hydra lurker defiler game...except that this one went into queens and then ultras in super lategame.

(There was another game between these two that went ultra first where zerg lost).

Ultra switches in games like this are a little bit awkward cause you're getting ranged upgrades.  Queen switches are interesting cause the response to hydra lurker defiler is siege tanks, but Hm really needed to get into a stable winning position before building queens cause it takes several minutes for the investment to pay off.

[metroid composite]

Moonlight Proleague Scan vs Ruin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXFFORxdDmQ

The interesting part of this game was a medic marine push against protoss that killed the natural expansion.  (Transitions from there into a pretty normal game).

[metroid composite]

Starcraft

CasterMuse Narak StarLeague Season 5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mY22WjULVA

Dark Archon used.  Basically kills all the mutalisks.

[metroid composite]

ASL back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_7WW-oqR8s

Games notable for meta stuff--game 2 TvZ--lategame hydra lurker defiler still a popular build.

TvT notable for how big an advantage was picked up from wraiths, but that's not so out of the ordinary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in919xzb7s0

Games notable for meta stuff--game 4 has a 5 pool that fails into the zerg macroing up with mutas and eventually winning.  Valkyries still very meta vs mutas according to Artosis.

Game 5 involved a failed lurker rush, but the game might have just been lost long before that as the terran attacked and killed too many drones.  Regardless, lurker rush still continues to not really impress me at ASL level play--very low success rate.