Jack: I don't know scum's secret, I just know that Samuel knows it somehow.
Regarding the people left in the game:
I'm super duper cleared by about a million different ways now that the slow kill's hit me again.
I'm willing to lose the game if Jack is scum, given how the mod himself basically went out of his way to clear him. Maybe there's some retarded scum way around what's happened to simulate all of the effects, but if there is I'm first in queue to whine after the game ends. He could theoretically be ITP, but given his position and there being two scum left we really don't have the time to chase ITP unless they wave their hands at us. Also, even if he is ITP (I don't believe it) it doesn't matter too much, given that he's all but guaranteed to pick up the slow kill tomorrow and out of the picture anyway.
I'm actually fairly happy with Nathan. I bounced a bunch of ideas off the wall during the night phase, and came to the conclusion that two town revivers was actually about the right balance. The concern started that maybe if two revivers survived to night 3 then it might be too unbalanced in town's favour even with no scum dead by the end of day 2, but the conclusion is reached that the only purpose of two of them existing is to improve the odds of one them being alive by then. Their options for revival are limited to the day 1 and 2 lynches, any fast kills, and the one slow kill that's happened by that point. Exactly one of these is likely to be useful for town (and yet another point towards the fast kill being town), and that's without Nathan's claimed limitation of only being able to choose slow kill targets. So that works out. If instead one of the revivers is scum, then the expected net gain for town is negative, and that's in a position of town being down. So, uh, no. Not with four scum. Even assuming something crazy like scumNathan telling the truth about his restriction and was forced to revive the first scum kill, then I'm pretty sure they'd be using the first slow kill on rolefishing, given the whole 'come back as vanilla' thing. Also, with Samuel having rolecopped him, assuming scumNathan then you either have scumSamuel and/or two doctors on scum's side. I certainly don't believe in the latter, as, even ignoring any sort of potential balance concerns, I can't see docfather Seamus pulling the miller strategy with a secondary protective role around.
So no, given that no one counter claimed in the first instance, I would not advocate or support voting for Nathan unless there is major evidence to the contrary. I consider {Nathan, Samuel} to be the only scum team involving Nathan to be possible at all.
So, two out of {Ronald, Samuel, Nikolai, Martin}. All the easier if we push the fast kill claim through, you see? Counter claim from scum will fail from the real one killing the fake one overnight. Guess I would have been wrong about that yesterday.
As it stands, there's still the possibility of the innards of the box - {Ronald, Martin} being the remaining scum. It's kind of part of why I want the fast kill claimed all the more now. I definitely want the two of you (that's you, Martin and Ronald) to admit to not being the fast killer if you're not, and if you are to wait for the other to anti-claim first. Failure to do this within about 24 hours or so will result in me assuming you're scum. There's still the outside chance of the fast kill coming from outside the box, but I hope not. If it is, there's still no chance for scum inside the box to fake claim the kill after the other guy anti-claims due to the real fast killer then going lol no.
Assuming we do bust out of the box, it's all about Nikolai. Nikolai, who has played a scummy game among scummy games. Playing the exact same way that he's played scum forever, just extreme. Being scum also neatly resolving my night 1 information. Yeah.
I want on that train. L-2 right out of the gate whatever, I feel good enough about it.
##Vote: Nikolai Kolmogorov
Obviously don't put it up to L-1. I'm just being greedy and selfish here. I in particular want to open the box before being in any way committed to this, not to mention that everyone should be weighing in generally.
Hey guys watch me direct a night action, hell yeah: hey Mr. Fast Killer, whichever you might be, here are my thoughts, on the very early assumption that we end up lynching Nikolai today. If he's town, then obviously don't use the power (unless someone has counter-claimed you). If he's scum and does have some titbit in his role information about sending out fake results, then you probably still want to stay your hand, as killing removes a lynch from town. If he's scum and doesn't flip such information, then I think it's probably worth killing Samuel overnight. Odds are we win, and if not then it leaves us in a better shape for the final day - you'll have removed a lynch from town, but Samuel's would probably be inevitable and a 3:1 finale is more in our favour than 2:1. 2:1 would result in either the slow kill victim being casting vote, or scum fake claiming slow kill and the third person casting the deciding vote - pretty much the same but with trap potential. Scum can't fake claim slow kill in 3:1, as we either lynch scum and win or lynch the slow kill and end up in an additional day of 2:1 (due to no slow kill going off that night) with scum getting immediately lynched due to lying, thus 3:1 would be a slow kill claim guaranteed !scum, and give us better odds of picking out the scum from the remaining three.
Sure this directs a kill, but I'm only directing it in the case of there being exactly one scum left, who'll have his hands full acting out the slow kill. Unless gee, Samuel suddenly conveniently claims to be bulletproof too.
Pretty sure this only fails if the fast killer is scum, for which my answer to that is: no. It also has potential to fail if the fast kill is outside of the box, but resolving that the fast kill is inside the box is a pre-condition for my vote on Nikolai anyway.
Personally, I'd still wager on Samuel being town, but I'm still going to cover all the possibilities I can. I'd also then remind myself that at least a fair chunk of why I consider him to be town is due to him ferrying the votes on to Ethan in day 3 and related events, which fail if Nikolai is scum. In fact, if Nikolai is town then I'd just about wipe the odds of him being scum off the board and devote my legacy beyond the grave for the second time for the scum pair to be {Ronald, Martin}. Then again, this is part of why I very much expect Nikolai to be scum regardless of Samuel's alignment.
I want to wait for the fast kill gambit to go through before discussing the possibilities further. Combine that with the amount I've written already, and I'm going to stop here for now.
