Cthulu Mafia - TOWN (drunk) WIN, MADNESS SOMEWHAT AVERTED

[Nathan Greaves]

"I have to agree in that Hargreaves's theory about Daniels being scum is really grasping at straws. Whether it's trying too hard or scummy desperation I can't quite be sure.

What I can be sure about is that Nikolai has still not shown up. Seriously, this is just getting ridiculous now. I don't want to turn suspicions on someone else in case it gives Nikolai an excuse to post at the last minute, get himself cleared for the day and likely secure another mislynch, but if we sit around waiting for him we could be waiting for a long time at this rate...that leaves Andrews and Hargreaves by process of elimination, and Andrews hasn't done much to improve since The Big Post. He was on O'Malley at day's end, true, but the alternative was a deadlock that would've wrecked him after Handley flipped Town, so it doesn't mean as much as it could.

...That's good news to hear, Ms. Mei-Fan. Maybe if the two of us survive this whole escapade, I can take you on a nice little trip to Chicago. I know a few friends who might be able to help you out with your...problem."

[Asuka Langley]

I've stopped giving a toss about my previous ITP worry, as it occurs to me Samuel rolecopping Mei-Fan means he can only be town or scum (if lying gambit), and it's only the fast kill's alignment that really matters for those purposes. If there's a survivor sitting amongst us, good for them.

I'm not sure I can realistically see anything other than a {Nikolai, Martin} pair remaining at this point, really. Again, need to pull back to make sure laziness isn't just leading me/us to loss. I've got another query I need to pass by the mod, but mostly right now I need to sleep.

I'm coming to assume that Nikolai has basically just given up at this point. It wouldn't be an uncommon response.

[Li Syaoran]

Top thing that comes to mind is that Nikolai claimed to have scanned Kyle on night 2. How delightfully suspicious that looks now.

How/why? I'm a rolecop, and I actually got that precise result. That plus his reasoning for attempting to lynch me D3 were what made me think he was Scum D4 (fortunately, I did not wind up voting him. When it turned out his wagon was started by and an alternate wagon TO Seamus O'ScumExcal's, it was somewhat clear he was Town).

[Li Syaoran]

Also, severely doubting the Daniels is Scum theory for the simple reason that why would Scum-Daniels attempt to counterclaim Town-Hellsnake? It's possible that Scum really wanted Hellsnake dead after they rolecopped him or something, but considering that at least one of the Scum was off his wagon, I doubt this. Other than this reason, I cannot see any reason to counter a Miller claim, especially one that you didn't know was actually true - three Millers is somewhat sensible as a Scum gambit; Two? Not so much.

[Tanaka]

((HA HA HA HA HA I LOVE THIS SETUP.  This is Role Madness done right.))

Good to see you showin' yer face again, Ruskie.  But I ain't too pleased.  Where's that "wall of text" you done promised us last gameday?  Sure, even if none of it's all too applicable, I'd like to SEE it if you don't mind--it would be right nice to see that you weren't just talkin' out yer Lenin-lovin' ass about it.  Don't even have to clean it up all that much.

An, if it ain't applicable no more, well, right after I'd right like to see your take on the day's situation as is.

Nah, Samuel, I'm ... kinda sure yer a good man but what's this nonsense about me bein' scum?  As Bike done pointed out, Chad comes back plain ol' doc to rolecops, and he while he also done nothin' to speak up and say he targetted me, the poor boy ain't said nothin' 'bout not targettin' me (not that he wouldda--flip's a little murky on th' topic, but I assume he didn't know nothin' 'bout his miller removin' powers, an if he did it wouldda been a right dumb move to speak up about it l'est it were to call me out on a lie ((Actually, HEY MOD!  Could you clear this one up a little? If Chad did know that he cleaned up Millers this will put Hargreaves' theory to rest, and if he didn't nothing's really changed.))).  Other people have touched more on why your line o' thought don't make no sense, but I will say if you were tryin' to build a case on me, there's plenty else to go off of--how much I been wrong about who's scum and who's not, how dang lazy I got yesterday after bein' largely declared confirmed town.  Ain't got no good excuse fer it 'cept to say I play like shit.  >_>

Speakin' o' that, though, I think it's right time to come out with what makes you so dang sure Nikolai is town and I ain't--what's so dang special about power number 3 that makes you sure the Ruskie's a townie?  Especially since it ain't come into play at all near as I ken tell--last big obvious mystery's done cleared itself up with our Chinawoman friend o'er here.  Yer backin' aside, Nikolai's makin' my scumdar flare up real bad, (which, in fairness, given that I've been convinced Pietro, Hellsnake, Handley, and until the last minute Callahan were scum but was dang unsure o' O'Malley an' Hayles, don't say too much.  Only reason I can give for being sure this time is that I think I'm gettin' better 'bout what's a scumtell and what's just poor play?  We'll see).

Speakin' o' the Chinaman... Now, I ain't one to poke at people fer not puttin' 2 and 2 together, but didn'tcha think it were a li'l ODD that every dang person you investigated got their throat's slit, or claimed to have warded off an attack?  Hell, I would-a thought that the only night somebody didn't get fastkilled was the night you targetted the boy who got slowkilt would-a raised some flags.    This... well, it ain't scummy.  If I'm to trust in Hargreaves, and you explicitly came back Vigilante, well... yer about as confirmed town as Greaves is.  Problem is I'm not too sure how much I trust in Hargreaves at this point. 

So, that leaves us with... Mr. Andrews.  Y'know, maybe I'm fishin' too much through flavor, but it were said in my role PM that Andrews was "Jon's favorite new disciple", and when Chad done poked at him fer more info he just claimed amnesia.  Mildly suspicious, now that I come to think of it.  I know his guardian angel's pretty dang busy, so I'll wait a bit fer him to weigh in on the day.  Gut says he's town, based off-a play, but... well, my gut ain't meant much all game, and we're runnin' out o' suspects. 

[Tanaka]

Oh, yeh.  I done think that considerin' were in potential LYLO (that apparently favors town), not usin' yer power would be the best idea?  Ol' Germoses' plan seems sound, but assumin' a town Samuel we don't rightly know what that curse could be.  Errin' on the side o' caution could be best?  Though I'll rightly defer to Bike's opinion on the matter--he clearly done thought it through more than I 'ave.

[Tanaka]

The last message was directed at the chinaman, if it weren't clear.

[SnowFire]

Jack:

Also, to be clear, Chad didn't know about *any* of the Squeaky-Clean stuff, just that his treatment might have side effects.

In flavor notes, "Mei-Fan" / "Ronald Dale" looks exactly the same as ever, that is, like Ronald Dale does.  Also none of you know Chinese so you can't really tell if (he?  she?) is speaking gibberish or real Chinese, though Mei-Fan is definitely speaking in a strange accent.

Votecount.

Nikolai Kolmogorov [2]: Jack Daniels, Gershom Bike
Mei-Fan Chen (Bardiche) [ 0]: Samuel Hargreaves
SnowFire [3]: Mei-Fan Chen (Bardiche), Samuel Hargreaves, Nathan Greaves

With 7 investigators, it takes 4 to lynch.  It is potential LYLO.  Day 5 has no hard deadline yet, but usual comment about no need to take forever.

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

以古讽今, I certainly speak Chinese you bastard mod.

Shoving that aside, I didn't think something was fishy because NAHHHHH I WOULDN'T HAVE A KILLER ROLE, RIGHT? and from my perspective at best I was cleaning out the scummy people. I had no reason to suspect I was the vigilant until Night 3, and by today I had no reason to give serious consideration to it until Hargreaves' there reacted, prompting me to out the possibility and connect the dots as more than just coincidence.

Like I said, the flavour in my PMs, I glossed over them and didn't really stop to think about their implications.

As far as scum goes I'm fine with Kolmogorov on a re-read. His Day4 isn't stellar and he hasn't done anything whatsoever today hinting at effort to disperse the pretty overwhelming attitude towards lynching him.

I don't see why Hargreaves is the best candidate for a Night Kill, but if Kolmogorov does flip Scum there's a real possibility of Hargreaves being the last one, or else Martin.

Otherwise it's either Nathan being some bizarre revivalist doctor scum who didn't/couldn't revive scum, or Daniels having the world's strangest form of luck. Thankfully Snow already outright denied the possibility of Ronald Dale being the last scum while Mei-Fan Chen isn't scum. >:

man i keep forgetting Roukan is Nathan because his play here is so good and yet so what on that other place

[Tanaka]

"I didn't think something was fishy because ... from my perspective at best I was cleaning out the scummy people"?

So, you didn't think you had a killing role, but you thought you were cleaning out the scummy people?

* Jack Daniels takes a swig and strokes his beard.

Uh.  So which is it: You thought you were cleaning out the scummy people, or you thought you weren't the killer?

[Li Syaoran]

Good to see you showin' yer face again, Ruskie.  But I ain't too pleased.  Where's that "wall of text" you done promised us last gameday?  Sure, even if none of it's all too applicable, I'd like to SEE it if you don't mind--it would be right nice to see that you weren't just talkin' out yer Lenin-lovin' ass about it.  Don't even have to clean it up all that much.

Well, certainly, but it principally concerns someone who I had an extremely wrong read on (our good salesman friend, Handley), so I'm not sure if posting it will be all that useful.

An, if it ain't applicable no more, well, right after I'd right like to see your take on the day's situation as is.

Hargreaves is...I'm not sure. He did have my role down correctly, and he did seem to explain the fastkills what with the Mei-Fan Chen nutjobbery, and he's been playing pretty well otherwise, but I'm at least somewhat perplexed as to why there are two rolecops - and mine is clearly specified as being "notoriously unreliable" and "a trap" (unreliable indeed, I nearly hydrated my monitor after discovering what Handley supposedly was...and how he could not, for instance, be a triplevoter), so...hmm. I will have to give him an actual reread as well as some wagonalysis - preliminary wagonalysis doesn't turn up anything terribly interesting, other than the fact that our farmer Scum and our priest Scum were not very coordinated in their choices of lynch wagons, for the most part (Seamus, for one, started Hayles' wagon D3 that ultimately led to a lynch).

But really, this means that we have...7 people, one of whom is ModConfirmed as being a Townie (Gershom Bike), one of whom is almost certainly a Townie barring EVEN MORE BASTARD MODDERY (Nathan Greaves, for his resurrection of Moses Bike), one of whom might be Anti-Town but is probably not Scum, (Mei-Fan Chen - unless the mafia have no less than two nightkills now somehow), myself - think of me what you will, I am actually somewhat fine with being lynched today, and then you, Hargreaves and Andrews:
- Hargreaves, as I had noted above, I am not sure about. I will need to do a proper reread of him, specifically in relation to his voting patterns and behaviours w.r.t our two already-flipped Scum.
- You, I think rather unlikely to be Scum, for now. It's a plausible scenario, but unlikely.
- That leaves us with Andrews, and I got back a fairly...interesting result for him on the rolecopping, which I will post as soon as I can run some things past the mod.

The only thing that bothers me about this is that this is "potential LYLO", which means that tomorrow, if we lynch Town today and then still manage to survive to tomorrow, we'd likely be looking at 5 people and Actual LYLO (SnowFlame: correct me if I am wrong on this), which necessitates two Scum, not just two members of Anti-Town factions, as 3 1 1 is not a guaranteed loss for Town even if they mis-lynch (it, however, requires the two Anti-Town killing factions to not know who the other is, so hm.), meaning that we'd almost certainly be looking at 5 2. Which makes me wonder, again, about Hargreaves. Part of me fully trusts him, both due to his defence of me (why would Scum want to keep a Townie, a specific Townie, and especially me given full knowledge of my role, alive this long?) D3 that largely contributed to Hayles getting lynched that day instead of myself, and the other part of me just wonders about the whole thing due to setup/role/Scum amount constraints.

Bleh.

[Tanaka]

And, from what Hargreaves done said, his rolecoppin' adds a bonus doc-type effect, but if it deflects a kill then somethin' bad happens.  Bike's whole plan is to have Samuel rolecop/bodyguard hisself an' have you attack him t' verify the roles, is my understandin'.

Ninja'd.

Useful 'er not, Red, I'd like to see it.  Y'ken even put big ol' "This post is nigh on useless" tags or whatnot if it makes you feel better about it.  And the sooner the better--if it's so dang useless then there's no real point in editin' it at all.  Just want to see it.

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

"I didn't think something was fishy because ... from my perspective at best I was cleaning out the scummy people"?

So, you didn't think you had a killing role, but you thought you were cleaning out the scummy people?

* Jack Daniels takes a swig and strokes his beard.

Uh.  So which is it: You thought you were cleaning out the scummy people, or you thought you weren't the killer?

I didn't think I had a killing role, but I suspected something was fishy. I felt more annoyed that my investigation targets kept dying.

When I suspected I had something to do with it I didn't really mind, because from my perspective I would just be killing whoever was suspicious to me. I never really put a lot of thought into it regardless, because I thought it was too silly and was more getting annoyed with my role turning out "useless" due to my targets continuously dying.

Far as Bike's plan, I have no idea. If he says "gut Sam if Kolmo flips scum with no anti-informative role", then I gut Sam if Kolmo flips scum with no anti-informative role, and heck be damned what the others do - at this point his plan makes a reasonable amount of sense outside of vigging Martin.

[Tanaka]

Okay, a little less than 2 hours from the request.  Nikolai, I don't really need to see it anymore, since the whole point was to verify that you HAD something.  At this point, anything posted could easily have been written in the last hour and 40 minutes or so, so it won't verify anything either way.  But if you had been able to produce it, I'd have been a might bit more inclined to think that, if you weren't town, you were at least trying to fake it.

Now, I have no grounds to assume that, Mr. Lurky-Lurk.  I'm going with the LAL strategy, and unless Hargreaves or yourself can give you a damn good reason for me to not be eager to lynch you....

[Li Syaoran]

@Andrews: I am giving you another 18 hours before I wind up outing you (as I am somewhat sold on you being Scum by now), so if you have any major objections, now is the time to voice them.

@Daniels: I could have typed up a somewhat decent analysis post from scratch in 40 minutes, possibly less, if I were indeed Scum and also were doing ex-post-facto analysis on Handley. That being said, unusually enough, while I would still rather lynch Scum, I am somewhat fine with being lynched myself if we can't come to any other consensus - you will see why when I flip (and Hargreaves knows the answer as well - I would very much like it btw, Hargreaves, if you were to keep not mentioning what X is, still).

[Chiaki]

Just got home. Been out without internet access since my last post. (Yes, I was out from 9 AM to 1 AM. I did warn you. I will be out for much of tomorrow, too. Sorry, real life takes precedence over Mafia.)  Reading over what's happened since then, and...yeah, urge to vote Snowfire rising. But anyway!

Roleclaim: I am Docproof. I might not know much about anything, what with the lack of memories, but I alone know the true secret of the evil conspiracy that calls itself "doctors". Namely, that they're out to kill us all! Also, for some reason I call them "the Order of Caduceus." So basically, yeah, I'm tinfoil-hat crazy. All I know about Jon is what I said when I posted my flavor - that I can't remember anything specific about him but have some instinctive feeling that he's a good man, deserving of my faith and loyalty. I suppose the idea that I'm loyal to him could mean that I was his "disciple" before I lost my memories, and he was the one who convinced me that doctors are all evil bastards, but I really don't know.

Anyway, the upside of all this craziness is that I won't let any doctor get close enough to me to so much as take my pulse. A night action attempted on me by someone with a doctor role fails, whether that action is actual doctoring or something else entirely. When I started out, this looked like a really crappy role (I have the power...to DIE!), but then the scum started flipping with doc roles (SnowFire confrimed to me that "Psychologist" counts as a doctor) and I reread the PM and realized that it meant ANY night action from a doctor fails, not just doctor protection, which, again by word of mod, includes nightkill attempts from scum doctors. So yes, in a game full of nigh-useless bulletproofs, I actually am, bulletproof, sorta - and I didn't even know it until Night 4. Of course, seeing as I'm one of the few remaining suspects in a game that has two confirmed townies, even if the other scum are doctors I've got a better chance of winning the lottery than drawing a nightkill.

Okay, so Bard's out, which means two of the role-confirmed trio are scum. Time to give them each a hard look. Reread starting right after laundry.

[Chiaki]

Also, just to be clear: My power has not come into play at all. I would get a PM if any doctor targeted me with a night action, and no such PMs have appeared.

[Tanaka]

That being said, unusually enough, while I would still rather lynch Scum, I am somewhat fine with being lynched myself if we can't come to any other consensus - you will see why when I flip (and Hargreaves knows the answer as well - I would very much like it btw, Hargreaves, if you were to keep not mentioning what X is, still).

Ha... ha ha ha ha.... ha ha ha ha ha WHAT?

Okay.  Whatever.  "Don't tell them power number 3 because... you'll see~~~~~~"

Ha ha, whatisthisidonteven...

Andrews:  And, how/why did you become aware of this on Night 4, if your power hasn't come into play at all?

[Asuka Langley]

Jack: because that's the point he reread his stuff and asked about it. Not that I inherently trust the rest (and his cover story is about as believable as Seamus's), but that much follows.

Anyway, my conclusion on Mei-Fan Chen is as follows (putting together pieces I've already mentioned):

Samuel scanned him as a vigilante cop. Either Samuel is telling the truth and Mei-Fan is town, or Samuel is lying scum and so is Mei-Fan. Therefore Mei-Fan is not ITP. (short of retard stuff)

Seamus had the docfather power yet played a miller strategy (on day 2, not day 1), which would flounder horribly if used on himself. Thus he planned on protecting fellow scum, heavily, heavily implying that the fast kill was not amongst their ranks. For this and a hundred other circumstantial reasons I've been throwing out, Mei-Fan is not scum.

Therefore I am willing to take Mei-Fan as town with about 99% reliability even with all of the gaffes and huge question marks (truth be told, I was mostly convinced you were scum and expecting the fast kill to belong to Martin, and your claim made me unsettled when it should have instantly sealed the deal), and would strongly suggest against her lynch short of an extraordinary revelation.


I think we can almost force a win for town just on the basis of trusting that myself, Jack and Mei-Fan are town.

Lynch today.
Kill tonight.

Now, assuming that one of those two were scum, you're left in a situation of Jack, Mei-Fan and two others. Let's assume Mei-Fan has the slow kill at that point. You then lynch one and fast kill the other if you're wrong. The hilarity would be if you do get it wrong then the slow kill gets assigned to Jack and then everyone is dead as of a day later, but given that I feel very strongly towards Nathan's innocence, I'm pretty sure it shouldn't come to that.

Holes in this theory: well, top of the list is if one of Jack of Mei-Fan is scum, but I'm already fooled at this point if so. Jack in particular I'll be pissed (ba dum tsshhh) if he ends up scum, because at least Mei-Fan could be the product of a kill restriction and scum brilliance on Excal's part, if Xanatos much.

Next is that we can only be certain of this set up if we lynch scum today. I don't believe in two scum docs given Excal's docfather miller strategy, but better safe than sorry and all that, and with only one scum left they'll be forced out on the kill (I'm sure of this, even if the mod won't confirm it). The one instance of two scum docs that seems plausible is scum rolecop doc ('sup, Sam), given that one does want the rolecop outside of scum's ranks, so it's not entirely implausible.

And yes, naturally the other hole is the risk of hitting two town and losing tonight, but minimising risk and all that.

Anyway, so I'd been saying earlier that the fast killer shouldn't be killing tonight if we hit town on account of it using up a lynch and potentially losing the game based on one person's decision rather than everyone's, but now I think it's better to take that risk because of the shape of the game - good odds of hitting scum, and a 3:1 endgame here is much, much better for town than 2:1. The only difference is that if we do hit town today, then Mei-Fan should kill Martin instead of Samuel. My reasoning for that is as follows: whether we hit scum or not, it's in Samuel's best interests to protect himself. If we do hit scum, though, it's good to try and gut him because he can only defend himself if he's not scum, or even if he can it would be at the expense of the slow kill, which would be observable immediately afterwards. So either he's scum and we win, or he's town and clear (at worst town and can't protect himself, but we've covered that). However, if we hit town we cannot possibly convince Samuel to not defend himself, because townSamuel knows the game is lost if he dies, and scumSamuel would likewise protect himself, knowing there's no way to tell the two apart. However, Martin has now claimed this docproof malarckey. Gutting him should definitely work unless he's lying scum and either he or his scumbuddy protects him. So either he dies and is probably scum, or he doesn't die and definitely is (hey there Samuel and Nathan, in this instance obviously do not protect him [if you're town] for some reason like 'to test if he's lying or not').

Reading over that you'll see it does as ever work out a lot more comfortably assuming we do lynch scum, but go figure. The latter plan fails in the case of a {Samuel, Nathan} team, which admittedly is the only team I could see Nathan existing on, but is still implausible in my eyes. It neatly works out with my own readings of relationships within the game, as I feel that {Samuel, Nikolai} is the only plausible scum pair I can see including Samuel, and sees Samuel taking the bullet only if Nikolai goes down first.

Thoughts? etc. etc.


Putting that to one side, the recurring theme is that it makes a huge difference to lynch scum in the here and now, so go figure that should always be the main order of business. On that note, I still have no reason to stray from Nikolai, especially with the resolution of needing to move out of the box at some point.

[Asuka Langley]

And can't for the life of me think what this 'X' could be that should still be protected. Everything you've been dropping light hints to needn't be hidden.

[Asuka Langley]

First off, this is annoyingly late enough in the day phase, and I apologise for this, however I feel it is important enough to be mentioned. I did target Moses Bike last night, however, my action is not a delayed kill (unless the mod is even more of a bastard than I had expected). Rather, it is a rolecop: I find out their role "ability", but like everything else in this bloody game, it comes wrapped in the usual case of flavour-insanity. However, I am not sure if I am willing to or if I even need to reveal what I found out about Bike's role last night (there have been enough roleclaims so far, and I am unconvinced that cracking the setup wide-open at this point is a good idea, considering what just happened in memes mafia), but if Bike himself or enough of the rest of Town want me to, then I will.

Top thing that comes to mind is that Nikolai claimed to have scanned Kyle on night 2. How delightfully suspicious that looks now.

How/why? I'm a rolecop, and I actually got that precise result. That plus his reasoning for attempting to lynch me D3 were what made me think he was Scum D4 (fortunately, I did not wind up voting him. When it turned out his wagon was started by and an alternate wagon TO Seamus O'ScumExcal's, it was somewhat clear he was Town).

On night 1 you got unclear results on an archivist, but on night 2 you got crystal clear results on a really batshit role? Oh okay.

[Asuka Langley]

Oh, and pardon me, I'd forgotten about the cop element of Mei-Fan's role. Any failed fast kill attempt will at least return a cop result, just to concrete things further. Especially in the Samuel case, which may mean it would be worth bouncing the kill off of him tonight even if we mislynch town today (unless he does now conveniently claim he can't protect himself). It'd only be worse in the case he is scum and deflects it, because after his quick lynch we'd end up with the less preferable 2:1 set up (if he's town, then great, it means you've reduced the possible pairs to precisely {Martin, Nathan} somehow, as much as I can't see how that makes sense, and win).

I think it's possibly slightly inferior but, should Nikolai manage to flip town, I'd leave the choice to Mei-Fan to decide which of {Samuel, Nathan} and {Martin, Nathan} is the less likely pair to risk losing to. By which I mean yes, you could instead kill Nathan and risk a {Samuel, Martin} pair, but I think that's far more plausible than the other two possibilities.

[Chiaki]

Okay, awake. Conked out shortly after geting my homemaker shit done last night, because it was nearly 3AM when I finished everything and FUCK that was a tiring day.

Andrews:  And, how/why did you become aware of this on Night 4, if your power hasn't come into play at all?

That was when Excal flipped doctor too and I was inspired to reread the PM and noticed the exact wording, leading to a conversation with SnowFire where he confirmed that yes, that's how it worked. Before that I just took the power at face value as "immune to being doctored" and left it at that. I knew I was immune to Hayles as soon as he flipped, because SnowFire went out of his way to tell me that psychologists are doctors for purposes of my power, and I briefly thought that meant slowkill immunity and that maybe all doctors really were scum. That lasted until the opening of day 4, when Chad flipped town doctor for strike one on that theory, and then Peyton claimed his slowkill and dashed it completely to hell - if scum could slowkill without the psychiatrist, why would I be immune to it? So I didn't bother examining the possibility any further for the rest of the day. Once Excal flipped Docfather, reinvigorating the idea that the scum had a doctor theme, even if not all doctors are scum, I thought it over again.

Bike: I agree that the evidence is uniformly in favor of the vig being town - add to your list that SnowFire has declared this a LYLO that favors town, when from all indications in the event of a mislynch Bard can end the game at will. In theory he and Samuel could be scum and lying about some restriction on him, but if he couldn't kill tonight then it wouldn't be LYLO, so that doesn't work.

In turn, that means your strategy works out comfortably provided we lynch scum today. To wit: Scum!Nikolai dies and it's 4:1, Town!me dies at night (I'd rather not, but you seem fixed on the idea), it's 3:1, then you lynch Hargreaves the next morning and, if he flips town, pray that Nathan (who would therefore be the final scum) can't protect himself from Schizo!Bard's final kill, because otherwise we lose when Bard/Jack dies and leaves the other in 1:1 with Nathan. If Nikolai's town....well, if Nikolai is town I'm going to put him in the Pietro Giovanni Hall of Shame, but it also means that Nathan and Samuel are the scum with 100% certainty. Lynching one would put town right back at 3:1, and we can just lynch him when it's 2:1 the next day, or Bard can go crazy at him. Mislynch me instead (sigh) and Bard's last kill will hopefully keep the game going, allowing you to lynch the surviving member of the pair the next day. I think that covers all possibilities? Basically, at this point we win unless (a) Nathan is bulletproof/self-protecting doctor scum and we need a NK on him to win, or (b) one of the confirmed townies isn't (in which case, lynch the mod).

[Asuka Langley]

Sorry Martin, I'm just about to go out the door so I haven't had a chance to read your post in full, but my plan only involves fast killing you tonight if Nikolai flips town, and even then I'm not certain it's optimal not to go for Samuel.

[Chiaki]

Yeah, the way I worked it out assumes no Bardkill tonight if we mislynch.