Cthulu Mafia - TOWN (drunk) WIN, MADNESS SOMEWHAT AVERTED

[Princess Leia]

Daniels: not "I'm going after 3P Dale because if he's proscum we've already lost". I'm ignoring the case of 3P Dale and assuming Scum Dale, because if he's 3P proscum we've already lost.

Andrews: uh... sure, if we can convince Daniels and Nikolai to agree to vote for you, I'm willing to vote for you too, and if you'll do it that gives us a majority. Not quite sure where you're going with this, nor that I trust you to keep your word when it comes down to it, but I'll certainly be willing to try.

Andrewsninja: Bard seems to think he still has a fastkill, and maybe he really does.

Mei-Fan, if you so wish: No, you're not the only one annoyed about that from Nikolai. So much for roles being minor and the game being all about good old-fashioned scumhunting, but nothing we can do about that at this stage.

[Chiaki]

Daniels: not "I'm going after 3P Dale because if he's proscum we've already lost". I'm ignoring the case of 3P Dale and assuming Scum Dale, because if he's 3P proscum we've already lost.

Yeah, but that's kinda like assuming that I have six legs. Assuming doesn't make it possible.

[Tanaka]

Eh, I was miffed at Nik's play, but frankly Nikolai playin' so scummy-like may have just won the game fer us. Not that it excuses it at all.  But had Nik played that way all game then come around today and joined in the discussion by this point I would be more inclined to write it off as a strategy.

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

This doesn't appear to be the case though. Oh well, I've enjoyed this game despite the numerous times I've gone "WHAT!" over the ridiculous role claims.

[Li Syaoran]

Huh. Hmm. A good chunk of this doesn't make any sense, because of the sheer amount of confirmeds. I'm confirmed. I'm *pretty sure* Jack Daniels isn't Scum, for a number of reasons I've gone on about already. Greaves being Scum would be pretty baffling, is a distinct possibility, but so unlikely that I'd sooner start singing in Portugese than think it to be real. If Dale/Mei-Fan Chen is Scum then I will punch SnowFire. That leaves Andrews and Hargreaves. The problem is that Hargreaves has been playing very Pro-Town and very much against Scum's win condition for the entire game, and Andrews... process of elimination, yet at the same time it makes sense for there to be at least one useful bulletproof in this goddamned Town.

Still trying to process what in the heck happened to Hargreaves, that is baffling and seems to almost read like a mafia slowkill, exept that Dale/Mei-Fan Chen ALSO claims to have been hit by the Mafia Slowkill. What in the name of processed cheese?

[Li Syaoran]

Oh, and regarding Andrews, what he posted here was fully and completely correct - this is actually why I went from considering him to be potential Scum to deciding against it, because he admitted full role details in such an open manner without hiding anything, which makes me err on the side of "he's a pro-Town role that's an actually useful" bulletproof in this setup.

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

... ... you have got to be kidding me.

Okay, Nikolai, why is it so unlikely that Greaves be scum?

And while we're at it, Nikolai, why would "I got Town Cop and Town Vigilante as roles" equate to "possibly slowkill"?

I... what. Just... What? Capital W?

[Li Syaoran]

@Daniels: I will need a moment to think about this mess. Admittedly, Greaves as Scum is plausible. Him bringing back Bike from the dead was a low-risk task for him, considering it would largely clear him in the eyes of everyone, including Bike (plus it seems that Bike was on the wrong path for most of this game, actually). On the other hand, I'm not fully convinced of Greaves's Scumminess to the point where I'd vote him, at least not yet. The reason being...

I'm still not sure about the Mei-Fan Chen/Samuel Hargreaves pair. Chen better not be Mafia, or else I am punching Snow, for the reasons of LOL GIVING MAFIA TWO NIGHTKILLS IS BAD, at the same time, this business of Bard claiming to not actually have it stated in his role PM that he was a vig is somewhat baffling and I'm not convinced that he's telling the full truth here.

Furthermore, see above for my issue with Hargreaves-Scum: even if I were going to self-revive, why would Hargreaves strongly argue for Hayles' (i.e. a fellow SCUM's) lynch D3 over mine? Not even that, he merely did not want me to be lynched, for very strong reasons - and I find the reason he stated quite plausible (for the record, my reason as to why ideally not getting lynched is preferrable to getting lynched is that lynching Scum is preferrable to lynching me. However, lynching me is preferrable to lynching any other Townie, so yeah), which further complicates what I think of him.

I did a reread of Hargreaves earlier today. As I said earlier, the problem with me seeing him as Scum is that he has been playing very strongly against Scum's win condition and very strongly for Town's the entire game, both in who he rolecopped, when/how he outed them, and his voting patterns the entire game.

Speaking of voting patterns! I find it interesting that Nathan Greaves was all over the place D1, and on myself D3. He counters this by starting the Seamus O'Excal wagon D4, though, which gives him some minor points in my book (keep in mind though that Excal started Ethan Hayles' wagon on the other hand, though, so that probably means a lot less in this game than usual. This game seems to be a tad on the busfest side).

The one thing that doesn't seem to add up is why would Scum have a resurrective role, on top of the Docfather and whatever it is the Psychologist does?

Hmm. Going to have to go over Bardale now. Not sure where my suspicions stand at all at the moment, sadly.

Ninja Bard:
Why Greaves is so unlikely to be Scum? Okay, I revised that - him resurrecting Bike is far more of a null tell than I had ever expected. I'm still not sure, though.

Possibly slowkill? I probably should have never thrown that out there, that was mostly me thinking aloud solely based off of the flavour that Hargreaves gave at the beginning of today. Also, and this is interesting: when did I implicate you in the slowkill? I merely stated that I thought that Hargreaves might have been hit with the Mafia Slowkill, ON TOP OF you attempting to stab him last night. So....um, what gives?

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

... Because Hargreaves claimed today he got my role. That of Town Cop and Town Vigilante. That's... what I thought you referred to. I thought you'd already read the thread. My mistake. :V

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

Mei-Fan Chen;

And while we're at it, Nikolai, why would "I got Town Cop and Town Vigilante as roles" equate to "possibly slowkill"?

This particular line should be read as:

"Why do you think that Hargreaves possibly claimed the slowkill when he gave a flavour explanation as to how and why he acquired the power of BOTH Town Cop as well as Town Vigilante, two roles that before that time had been attributed to me. He explicitly said he had acquired both those roles, and that he postulated I must have gotten his role.

Why does this post of his make you think that he is possibly slowkilled?"

[Li Syaoran]

Yeah, I read that - that was the explicit flavour post I was referring to. On second thought though, "barely retained his sanity" means that it's likely that he will still be alive after tonight. My mistake.

However, something doesn't add up here. You claim that you had Cop+Vig roles, and you didn't know about the Vig part - and then after attacking Hargreaves, the roles transferred to him somehow? And on top of this, you got back a Scum result on him? And when he got the roles, he knew that he was both a Townie Cop AND a Townie Vig?

Hm. Going to have to think about Hargreaves a bit more, something interesting is going on here somewhere.

[Li Syaoran]

Oh, and Andrews: from this post, something doesn't add up, because take a look at this post from Snow:

It is Day 6.  It is LYLO, so there is no deadline (technically potential LYLO, but.... yeah.).  With 6 investigators, it takes 4 to lynch.

So... which is it? Snow: If there is no fastkill tonight, only a slowkill, and we mislynch today, does Town lose? Furthermore - if we No Lynch today, and there is no fastkill tonight, only a slowkill, does Town also lose?

[Li Syaoran]

Er. Town must lynch - so disregard that last line. However, lynching me is isomorphic to a No Lynch, so...yeah, replace "No Lynch" with "lynching a reviving role".

[SnowFire]

* Rules for town: Town must lynch (barring the extremely unlikely circumstance of townies not having a majority, yet still having a win theoretically possible).  If there is no hammer by deadline, the character with the most votes will be lynched.  If there is a tie, the Day will continue in Sudden Death.  If Sudden Death lasts longer than 24 hours then Azathoth, via its minion Hatbot, will be consulted for its opinion.  If you are preparing a post / votechange near deadline and there is a huge rush of activity / ninjas, don't panic, tell the mod and there likely will be an informal 15-minute extension so you can get your post through, though nothing is guaranteed and more time than 15 minutes is unlikely.

No lynch is only an acceptable vote in the one very rare circumstance as noted above.

I will not comment on the current situation and how I would determine what to call "LYLO" and what to call "potential LYLO" aside from the obvious that I stick 'potential' on if any realistic combination of night actions could affect the result.  If you want to give a hypothetical example with all the parameters set, I *may* be able to reply, but I can't discuss the actual setup.  (In other words if you say "What's 4 vanilla townies + 2 vanilla scum?" I will answer "LYLO.")

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

Yeah, I read that - that was the explicit flavour post I was referring to. On second thought though, "barely retained his sanity" means that it's likely that he will still be alive after tonight. My mistake.

... Yeah, he continues to say tht being he absorbed gives him new power. Hence why I thought it was odd to think it a possibility of slowkill. I'm going to tread careful here because believe you me I am getting pretty nervous here. Please don't vote until you've at least considered all posts here, especially those of Jack Daniels who is absolutely Town I think virtually everyone agrees.

However, something doesn't add up here. You claim that you had Cop+Vig roles, and you didn't know about the Vig part - and then after attacking Hargreaves, the roles transferred to him somehow?

Okay, work with me here. I claimed Cop. Hargreaves says I had Vigilante as well, but that it appeared as a seperate result. So not "Bardiche is Cop Vigilante", but something like "Bardiche is Cop. Bardiche is also a vigilante!" I assume.

Now then, I didn't know about Vigilante, but we assume this is true based on all my night targets also being hit by a Vigilante.

Now, it was discussed the previous Day, as provided by Towniest Town of the Town mr Bike that I should act according to a specific plan. This plan involved attacking Samuel if you would flip Town, and you flipped Town.

I then proceeded to act as I had announced, and attacked Samuel. As expected, he protected himself.

I got the investigation result of "Scum".

Today begins! Samuel claims he got my roles and that I am probably his role. I say that I am getting slowkilled, and that something odd happened. Samuel doesn't mention anything specific. I reveal my investigation result.

In no way did I ever claim Samuel got my roles, especially because they don't work as he advertises them. Namely, my Vigilante action is the same as my Cop action. Every night I say "I investigate X", and then afterwards I attack person X, I presume. Point in case: Samuel claims he has a restriction on 'my' set of roles, I don't have them.

Ipso facto: Samuel claims he has acquired my roles and I say that that is not true.

Okay?

And on top of this, you got back a Scum result on him? And when he got the roles, he knew that he was both a Townie Cop AND a Townie Vig?

Hm. Going to have to think about Hargreaves a bit more, something interesting is going on here somewhere.

And yes, he said he got Town Cop and Town Vig roles. ... Thus implying I'm Town. Or 3P who appears as Town. Or Scum Squeaky-Clean Vigilante Cop.

[Tanaka]

That also baffles me.  The nature of the slowkills has been so obvious that everyone who was hit with it has been able to call it.  If Hargreaves was going to claim a slowkill, he'd have done it, not done the whole role swapping malarky.

Hargreaves noted a while ago when he claimed that if he doc'd someone, some "curse" or whatever would happen.  Dale attacked Hargreaves last night, and Hargreaves doc'd himself.  So, I'm pretty that's why all that happened. 

[Tanaka]

And exactly why can't Greaves be scum?  He's played the scummiest out of anybody here and the only thing we have saving him is the claim that he was a reviver.  Yeah, he probably revived Bike.  But that's also a pretty damn perfect cover for scum--if Greaves IS scum, we've basically thrown him aside as a suspect based on that revival alone, and it's gotten him to the endgame.  Going off the roleclaim here is too WIFOMy to me, and I especially don't like how Greaves (and Hargreaves) declared discussion over and ended yesterday on their own. 

H'okay, I've got a web conference to pay attention to at 6 for my Interac interview, and that will last til 8.  I'll be looking in on the topic every now and then until 6 but after that real life's got me.  I'll weigh in on whatever Kolmgorov brings up after that.

[Tanaka]

3 hours later... right.  Totally shocked here guys.  So if Nikolai doesn't come back by the time I go to sleep tonight, I'm done with today and will put my vote down.  That's ample time for him to have weighed in.

[Chiaki]

Also around, not much else to add. Will vote for whoever Jack/Nikolai want me to, as promised. That includes...well, anybody in the game except for them.

Greaves has played scummy and his revival of Bike is a null tell for reasons already mentioned, summing up to "if he'd used it on scum we'd have murdered him to death as soon as Nikolai rolecopped him." Occam's Razor has him and Hargreaves as by far the most likely scumteam.

Hargreaves has been awful today, is in a direct claim-war with somebody we know for a fact is not scum, and his being scum explains why they didn't go after Nikolai. Lynching either one of those two is my ideal outcome for the day. Hargreaves is slightly preferred because we know he can protect himself from a vig shot.

Today being worse LYLO than yesterday only works if Bard is not scum, never mind the other indications that scum did not control the fastkill. Granted, he is possibly also nontown, and if people decide to flip 180 and lynch him I won't protest horribly about it, though only because lynching the slowkill victim presumably means we still get a Day 7 at 3:2 (Unless there's a fastkill aimed at town tonight even without Bard, which would shock me) and then we'd be able to get down to the business of lynching scum. I would rather just lynch scum.

Jack is nonscum, as evidenced by the mod declaration that a scum miller would be illegal. Could theoretically be ITP I guess but Hargreaves scanned him as vanilla and they can't be working together because of the aforementioned "not scum" thing.

Nikolai has flipped. No more need be said.

[Tanaka]

Well, there may well BE a fastkill aimed at town tonight without Bard, if Hargreaves is telling the truth about the roleswap.  So that's a pretty distinct possibility, if we lynch Bard.  Nobody has given me a really good reason to lynch Bard instead of Har/greaves, though, so........

[Tanaka]

Yeah, plenty of time.

If we win at this point, which I think we will given a Greaves/Hargreaves scumpair, well, go us.

If we've lost, good job scum.  You lost to a bunch of people who played scummy as hell, couldn't deduct worth shit (mostly myself here) and someone who lurked ad absurdum.   You earned the win and I'm more annoyed at Alice than I am at Snowfire because the role madness was pretty fun, buy it or not. 

I feel like I've given Alice ample time to weigh in.  He hasn't yet, so fuck him.

##VOTE: Samuel Hargreaves

And god help us all.

[Princess Leia]

At work, just quickly, if you're doing this please make sure the #2 in votecount at day end is whoever you think has the best chance to be the second scum (for my money Andrews but it's not my call, if you want to go Greaves then sure). If scum actually non-slowkilled last night to give Dale's claim weight then we can still potentially win provided he can't hit town tonight. (Hopefully he's lost his power, in which case great, but I don't want to bank on it).

[Bardiche]

Mei-Fan Chen;

##VOTE: Samuel Hargreaves, don't have much to add on this point at all.

Just seconding Jack. I'd look incredibly odd if Samuel and Nathan aren't scum together and if they aren't, then yeah, scum won due to people playing scummy as all get-out.


And the #2 in the lynching rankings doesn't matter shit at all. Just re-iterating this point. Bravo for Hargreaves to have found some pattern in my investigations, but it's all just a coincidence, crazy as it sounds.

[SnowFire]

Votecount.

SnowFire [1]: Samuel Hargreaves
Samuel Hargreaves [3]: Nathan Greaves, Jack Daniels, Mei-Fan Chen (Bardiche)

Sam Hargreaves is 1 vote away from eternity.

It is Day 6.  It is LYLO, so there is no deadline.  With 6 investigators, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Shale]

Okay then.
##Vote Samuel Hargreaves