Season 59, Week 2 - Albert Simon vs. Moppy. Thus begins set super on fire week.

[OblivionKnight]

Agility and Luck do affect magical accuracy as well - Kanji misses a bit more with both (though physical techs do have a lower base - this is to make up for the fact they can critical) than other characters do.  AGI is a bit more important than LUK, but both help.

I'm also 98.76433321% certain that you cannot evade Spirit Drain/Leech.

[Yoshiken]

And then there's the fact that Spirit Leech is a flat 2HKO to average MP in P4, and the FF6 stat topic puts everyone at around the same (or thereabouts, meaning Celes isn't -far- above average, even if she is.) So, yeah, like hell is that a 4HKO to her MP. Somehow, I doubt Celes is at 2x average MP.
Oh, and then there's the fact that there is still nothing to say he can't Spirit Leech in QC phase.

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

And then there's the fact that Spirit Leech is a flat 2HKO to average MP in P4, and the FF6 stat topic puts everyone at around the same (or thereabouts, meaning Celes isn't -far- above average, even if she is.) So, yeah, like hell is that a 4HKO to her MP. Somehow, I doubt Celes is at 2x average MP.
Oh, and then there's the fact that there is still nothing to say he can't Spirit Leech in QC phase.

Sooooooo don't buy 150 SP being a 2HKO to average MP by that point in the game.

[OblivionKnight]

Level 99 base MP average is 400 exactly.  35 levels less than that, with an average growth of 3/level, puts that at around 300.  Varies depending on what characters you use (and yes, it's technically 34 levels, so that's why it's the number it is), but is close to that regardless - assuming level 65 - level 60 it would be closer to a 2-shot.  It's not anything less than a 3-shot to average MP. 

[Jo'ou Ranbu]

I'm perfectly fine with it being a 3-shot - even at L99, it'd be so at base. However, calling it a 2HKO = nonono if you're assuming Unerring Justice doesn't 2HKO average (it requires a certain level threshold, and if Yoshi said he misses a 2HKO, then the stats line up so the MP drain doesn't end up in a 2HKO). There are even a few MP boosting accessories around in P4 that can drag the averages up a bit.

I'm also hesitant to buy the idea of Spirit Drain being ITE unless there's straight evidence of it, given how very little in P4 is unevadable (status and Mudo/Hama spells don't face evade in-game, but that's just about it, and they still have to face Luck at least).

[Dark Holy Elf]

Minerva raises MP by 25%, so Celes is notably above average actually. (also blah blah high mdef and evade if either of those matter)

EDIT: Also, technically, everyone except Celes/Strago/Terra has 0 so she is massively above average!!!!1 Yeah I don't buy this myself, but hey, it's true by the same technicality that leads Gau to be OHKOed by the worst MP damage ever. (which of course I also don't buy for the same reason)

[Taishyr]

I... mmm, I don't think I ever recall seeing it miss either, honestly (Spirit Drain).

This being said, Tal/MC views make this a headache to me, as it makes his two other moves legal...

...but even Control All just kills one off, and that's not good enough. Celes takes it, other matches are decently obvious.

[Dhyerwolf]

Difficulty only changes stats in P4 (and other SMT...with a few minor exceptions).

As for Deliveryman...he has good accuracy - 72 AGI will do that.  It's game-best for the time by far - I'd have to look back specifically, but he shouldn't have issues missing average...probably drops Celes down a bit on the evasion. 

I'm not sure Agility/Luck have much of an effect at all on spells (they're more accurate than physical skills and the basic physical by default). How much credit you give that is up to you, but then, it shouldn't take more than a couple turns for Celes to put SD out of reach for Kunino, so he gets at best two shots at trying to 4HKO her MP - which can still miss rather easily even with the somewhat high accuracy. Then, he gets into the QC phase which is just massive failure against Celes, who just takes the time to put up her buffs and own the hell out of Namatame.

Assuming the same general formula for evasion as P3...Spirit Drain should be ITE. It's not listed with an accuracy in the P4 Mechanics guide. The listed accuracy is in the P3 guide was actually the max hit. If you had better stats than enemy, you'd basically get the max hit (And then you'd add on extra evasion). Fight Floor 1 enemies with endgame Auto-Suku Persona and miss!

Spirit Drain not having a base accuracy definitely implies to me that it flat out can't miss (Cleave and Bash are listed at 100%, so it's just not a lack of listing).

Also, I should note that I was really tired when thinking about the Jowy vs. Kanji match. Kanji...may just avoid might 2HKOed to me, but then he can't use an HP tech! Forgot about that, which makes Jowy the clean winner.

[Pyro]

What is this about Kanji's durability to magic being bad? Endurance determines damage reduction for both magic and physicals, I thought.

[superaielman]

Yeah, Kanji is most definitely a magical tank thanks to that silly HP+Endurance.

Vote changed on Namatame/Celes.

[Pyro]

Godlike

Violetta (G3) vs Masaji Kato (SH2): Welcome (back) to Godlike.
Guv (DQ8) vs Ultimecia (FF8): Works.
Taro Namatame (Pers4) vs Celes Chere (FF6): SP busting works, I guess. After which not much Celes can do. Terra could do it with her offense probably but not Celes.
Chaos (FF1) vs Profound Darkness (PS4): Course the above match barely matters. PD eats the loser.

Heavy

Galcian (SoA) vs Peppita Rosetti (SO3): Super pulls out his hair. CT does a little jig.
Jowy Atreides (S2) vs Kanji Tatsumi (Pers4): I dunno. Kanji's durability is pretty nutty and he does have Endure. So a very powerful physical tech and an ordinary physical or lightning spell or something. Not thinking too hard.
Meliadoul Tingel (FFT) vs Neclord (S2): Screw this I have no idea.
Odin (VP2) vs Albert Simon (SH1): And this too, for all that I'll vote.

Middle

Gerik (FE8) vs Cray (BoF4)
Carol Anderson (WA5) vs Bo (BoF1): Draining works? Probably.
Sain (FE7) vs Arche Klein (ToP): Sain Res. It is awesome.
Cielo (DDS) vs Philia Felice (ToD): ID or something.

Light

Milich Oppenheimer (S1) vs Tsai (S2): Probably Tsai?
Keele Zeibel (ToE) vs Priscillia (FE7): This is pretty bad.
Saleh (FE8) vs Simone Verdricci (S2)
Guido (G1) vs Meg (Suikos)

Light is epic.